Stocks Wobble or Worse? Peace For Our Time, Part Two.

Baltic Dry Index. 1436 +29            Brent Crude  78.05

Spot Gold 2028                  US 2 Year Yield 4.46 +0.10

The government consists of a gang of men exactly like you and me. They have, taking one with another, no special talent for the business of government; they have only a talent for getting and holding office. Their principal device to that end is to search out groups who pant and pine for something they can't get and to promise to give it to them. Nine times out of ten that promise is worth nothing. The tenth time is made good by looting A to satisfy B. In other words, government is a broker in pillage, and every election is sort of an advance auction sale of stolen goods.

H. L. Mencken.

In the US stock casinos, a lack of greater fool buyers. The magnificent seven now down to the over hyped four.

 

In desperate deflationary China, stocks now need desperate rigging to prevent a giant collapse.

 

1987 2.0 looms, but with Uncle Scam and the District of Crooks already 34 trillion in debt and racking up almost two trillion of more debt every year.

 

The Great Nixonian Error of Fiat Money has lasted 53 wasteful years, but has now entered its death throes. Over 40 nations are now trying to rush out Central Bank Digital Currencies as the quadrillions of fiat debt looms, next.

 

China, Hong Kong stocks rise amid broader decline in Asia; Australia leaves rates unchanged

UPDATED TUE, FEB 6 2024 12:45 AM EST

China and Hong Kong stocks jumped Tuesday as authorities in the world’s second-largest economy took measures to arrest a recent sell-off in its equities, while most Asia-Pacific markets declined.

The CSI 300 index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose about 3.3% each. Mainland China’s CSI 300 had hit five-year lows last week.

According to a statement from the China’s securities and regulatory commission, it would “guide institutional investors ... to enter the market with greater efforts.” This comes at a time where a clear lack of targeted stimulus from Beijing weighed on market sentiment.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left its official cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as was expected. The S&P/ASX 200 extended losses from Monday, closing 0.6% lower at 7,581.60, while the Aussie dollar strengthened strengthened 0.5% against the U.S. dollar.

In Japan, household spending dipped more than expected in December, falling 2.5% year on year compared with the 2.1% expected by economists polled by Reuters.

The average monthly income per household for December stood at 1,099,805 yen, falling 4.4% in nominal terms and down 7.2% in real terms from the previous year.

The Bank of Japan has said sustainable wage increases are one of the prerequisites for unwinding its ultra-loose monetary policy.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.2%, while the Topix saw a larger loss of 0.4%.

South Korea’s Kospi reversed earlier gains and was down 0.6%, while the small-cap Kosdaq lost 0.1%.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes lost ground as Treasury yields spiked higher on concerns the Federal Reserve might not cut rates as much as expected. Lackluster results from McDonald’s also dampened investor sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.71%, while the S&P 500 retreated from its all-time high, slipping 0.32%. The Nasdaq Composite edged down 0.2%

Asia markets live updates: RBA decision, Japan wages, China measures (cnbc.com)

Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500 and Dow slide from record highs: Live updates

UPDATED TUE, FEB 6 2024 12:29 AM EST

U.S. stock futures were mixed on Tuesday following a sell-off spurred by higher bond yields and worries that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates as much as Wall Street had hoped. 

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average held near the flatline. S&P 500 futures inched lower by 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures ticked up by 0.3%.

In after-hours action, shares of Palantir Technologies surged 17% after the company posted a revenue beat in the fourth quarter. NXP Semiconductors rose more than 3% on better-than-expected results.

During Monday’s main trading session, the S&P 500 lost 0.32%, pulling back from its record high from last week that was powered by megacap tech stocks. The 30-stock Dow also retreated from its high, ending the session lower by 0.71%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 0.2%. 

The decline in stocks came after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed that a rate cut at the central bank’s March meeting is unlikely. His comments, which were aired on “60 Minutes” Sunday night, led to the 10-year Treasury yield rising about 13 points Monday to 4.16%.

Bob Doll, CEO of Crossmark Global Investments, expressed concerns as to whether the market can sustain its recent rally. 

“There’s a lot of momentum, but I’m worried about [the S&P 500 at] 20 times earnings, and that the Fed’s not going to live up to [rate] cut expectations. And I don’t see how we get double-digit earnings growth,” Doll said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime” on Monday. 

“I put all that together — I’m invested but I’m nervous,” Doll added. 

On the economic front Tuesday, Wall Street will be keeping an eye out for the New York Fed’s household debt and credit report for the fourth quarter. Several central bank speakers are slated to give comments, including Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Boston Fed President Susan Collins. 

Tuesday marks around the halfway point of the earnings season. Eli Lilly, Boeing supplier Spirit AeroSystems and DuPont will all be reporting their quarterly results that morning, followed by Amgen, Chipotle Mexican Grill and Ford after the bell.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

China regulator unveils more curbs on short-selling

February 6, 2024 5:44 AM GMT

BEIJING/SHANGHAI, Feb 6 (Reuters) - China's securities regulator said on Tuesday it would suspend brokerages from borrowing shares for lending and cap the size of so-called securities refinancing, as part of further efforts to curb short-selling.

The watchdog will also ban securities lending to investors who sell stocks on the same day of purchase, and vowed to crack down on illegal arbitrage using short-selling.

Chinese authorities have announced a raft of measures to support share prices after the market (.CSI300), opens new tab plunged to five-year lows last week in an ailing economy.

The fresh measures came a day after the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) vowed "zero tolerance" against malicious short sellers, warning those who dare flaunt the law will "lose their shirts and rot in jail".

The CSRC said on Tuesday that no new business would be allowed for securities refinancing, in which brokerages borrow shares and lend them to clients for short selling. Existing businesses would be gradually wound up.

In addition, the watchdog urges brokerages to tighten scrutiny over clients' trading behaviours.

Under China's regulations, shares cannot be sold on the same day of purchase, but some investors skirt the rules using borrowed shares. The CSRC said that such traders would be banned from borrowing shares.

Recent efforts to curb short-selling has led to a 24% drop in securities lending business, to 63.7 billion yuan, the CSRC said.

China regulator unveils more curbs on short-selling | Reuters

In other news, Germany leads the EU and Europe into recession.

 

German exports disappoint in December on weak global demand

By Maria Martinez  February 5, 2024 10:43 AM GMT

BERLIN, Feb 5 (Reuters) - German exports fell more than expected in December due to weak global demand, data from the federal statistics office showed on Monday, underlining concerns about the health of Europe's biggest economy that may be slipping back into recession.

Germany's ailing economy had a bumpy start to the year with exports sinking, farmers launching nationwide protests, train drivers striking for days and heated debates among coalition partners on how to foster economic growth.

"These are recessionary numbers, consistent with overall difficult economic conditions in the German economy," said Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Exports fell by 4.6% in December compared with the previous month. The result compared with a forecast 2.0% decrease in a Reuters poll.

Exports to EU countries fell by 5.5% compared with the previous month, while exports to countries outside the EU declined by 3.5%, the office said.

Imports fell by 6.7% from November, the federal statistics office reported, versus analysts' expectations for a 1.5% decline.

 

----RECESSION WARNING

Gross domestic product contracted by 0.3% in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter, prompting economists to warn of another recession.

The sickly state of the German economy is the next big challenge for the export-reliant countries of central Europe.

Close trade ties with Germany and its once-mighty auto sector were for years a boon for the region since the collapse of communism. But now those ties risk becoming a drag on the economies of Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia.

The German economy is once again lagging behind international growth this year, the OECD said on Monday, halving its forecast for 2024 to 0.3% GDP growth, while France, Italy and Spain are expected to perform significantly better.

"This is mainly due to the fact that energy-intensive industry has a greater weight in the German economy than in other eurozone countries," said OECD expert Isabell Koske, adding Germany was also more dependent on Russian energy imports.

With a slowdown in Germany weighing on the broader euro area, the shared currency bloc's outlook had worsened since November, with its economy now expected pick up from 0.5% last year to only to 0.6% this year, down from 0.9% previously.

More

German exports disappoint in December on weak global demand | Reuters

Finally, poor Boeing. Yet more 737 Max problems in what was once the world’s leading aircraft manufacturer.

 

Boeing flags potential delays after supplier finds another problem with some 737 fuselages

February 3, 2024

Boeing reported another problem with fuselages on its 737 jets that might delay deliveries of about 50 aircraft in the latest quality gaff to plague the manufacturer.

Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Stan Deal said in a letter to Boeing staff seen Monday that a worker at its supplier discovered misdrilled holes in fuselages. Spirit AeroSystems, based in Wichita, Kansas, makes a large part of the fuselages on Boeing Max jets.

“While this potential condition is not an immediate safety issue and all 737s can continue operating safely, we currently believe we will have to perform rework on about 50 undelivered planes,” Deal said in the letter to employees share with the media.

The problem was discovered by an employee of the supplier of the fuselages who notified his manager that two holes might have not been drilled according to specifications, Deal said.

Both Boeing and Spirit AeroSystems are facing intense scrutiny over the quality of their work after an Alaska Airlines 737 Max 9 was forced to make an emergency landing on Jan. 5 when a panel called a door plug blew out of the side of the plane shortly after takeoff from Portland, Oregon.

The NTSB is investigating the accident, while the Federal Aviation Administration investigates whether Boeing and its suppliers followed quality-control procedures.

Alaska Airlines and United Airlines, the only other U.S. airline flying the Max 9, reported finding loose hardware in door plugs of other planes they inspected after the accident. The FAA grounded all Max 9s in the U.S. the day after the blowout. Two weeks later, the agency approved the inspection and maintenance process to return the planes to flying.

Alaska Airlines and United Airlines have begun returning some to service.

Boeing, based in Renton, Washington, said last week it was withdrawing a request for a safety exemption needed to certify a new, smaller model of the 737 Max airliner. Boeing asked federal regulators late last year to allow delivery of its 737 Max 7 airliner to customers even though it does not meet a safety standard designed to prevent part of the engine housing from overheating and breaking off during flight.

Boeing flags potential delays after supplier finds another problem with some 737 fuselages (msn.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Central banks must beat inflation before cutting interest rates, says OECD

February 5, 2024

Central banks should be certain they have beaten inflation before cutting interest rates this year, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said despite revisions to its outlook that showed inflation was falling at a faster rate than previously expected.

The Paris-based thinktank, which represents 38 countries, said it was “too soon to be sure that underlying price pressures are fully contained”.

UK inflation has been forecasted to fall sharply this year after a steep drop in the cost of energy and fuel back towards pre-pandemic levels.

The OECD said a forecast in November had underestimated the waning of inflationary pressures in the UK and an average rate of 2.9% expected this year was more likely to be 2.8%. The US inflation rate in 2024 would be 2.2%, down from a previous forecast of 2.8%.

However, in a shot across the bows of central banks considering early cuts in the cost of borrowing, it said that while wage demands had “become better balanced”, pay rises “generally remain above rates compatible with medium-term inflation objectives”.

The attacks in the Red Sea, which have disrupted shipping through the Suez Canal, could also trigger a second round of inflationary pressure, it said.

“Monetary policy needs to remain prudent to ensure that underlying inflationary pressures are durably contained. Scope exists to lower policy interest rates as inflation declines, but the policy stance should remain restrictive in most major economies for some time to come,” it added.

The head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, said over the weekend that the central bank was alert to the risk of cutting interest rates too soon.

“The danger of moving too soon is that the job’s not quite done, and that the really good readings we’ve had for the last six months somehow turn out not to be a true indicator of where inflation’s heading,” he told the 60 Minutes programme on CBS.

“We don’t think that’s the case. But the prudent thing to do is to just give it some time and see that the data continue to confirm that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustainable way.”

More

Central banks must beat inflation before cutting interest rates, says OECD (msn.com)

These market signals suggest recession fears aren’t gone yet

February 3, 2024

Stocks just logged a strong first month for 2024. Under the surface, Wall Street isn’t so cheery.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average, which tracks 20 US transportation stocks from railroads to airlines to delivery, has fallen 1.6% so far this year, underperforming the broader Dow industrials’ 2.2% gain.

That’s a reversal from the transportation index’s nearly 6% gain in December, as optimism that the economy would see a soft landing, or a marked decline in inflation without spurring a recession, sparked a gangbusters “everything” rally across markets.

As that optimism dims, some investors worry that the decline in transportation stocks suggests rough times ahead for the economy. The transportation index tends to fall when the economy deteriorates, as demand for travel and goods wanes.

CH Robinson Worldwide shares have slid about 15% so far this year, United Parcel Service shares have lost 9%, Avis Budget Group shares have fallen 8% and Alaska Air Group shares have declined 7%.

The divergence between the two Dow indexes is raising a red flag on Wall Street. Some investors believe that when the transport index falls as the broader blue-chip index rises, it’s a sign that demand for goods is declining even as supply stays robust.

“It seems investors are sort of playing a little bit with belts and suspenders on the soft landing bet,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.

That waning optimism took another hit this week, when the Federal Reserve on Wednesday held interest rates steady at a 23-year high and signaled that it is unlikely to begin paring back rates in March. The Dow transports are on track for their worst weekly decline since early January.

Turmoil in the airline industry also likely contributed to the recent slide in transportation stocks. Airline stocks tumbled in January when a door plug on an Alaska Airlines Boeing 737 Max 9 blew off mid-flight, sparking fears that Boeing’s other aircraft could also be faulty.

The Russell 2000 index, which tracks the stocks of smaller US companies, has slid 2.6% for the year in another potential sign that investors are worried about the economy. Like the Dow transports, small-cap stocks tend to rise and fall with economic cycles.

Losses in economically sensitive stocks also portend another concern for investors: the stock market’s narrow rally. Many hoped that the sweeping year-end returns would continue to broaden this year, since wide-ranging gains support a healthier, more sustainable rally. But the tech stocks that ruled last year’s market have continued their dominance.

The Magnificent Seven (Nvidia, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Tesla and Alphabet) drove 45% of the benchmark S&P 500 index’s 1.6% gain in January, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Excluding Tesla shares, which fell about 25% last month, the group would have accounted for 71% of the benchmark index’s gains.

“Were we really seeing the outcome of the soft landing bid effusively into the stock market, one would expect to see that broadening,” said Luschini.

More

These market signals suggest recession fears aren’t gone yet (msn.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

"Peace for our time" was a declaration made by British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain in his 30 September 1938 remarks in London concerning the Munich Agreement and the subsequent Anglo-German Declaration.^[1] The phrase echoed Benjamin Disraeli, who, upon returning from the Congress of Berlin in 1878, had stated, "I have returned from Germany with peace for our time." The phrase is primarily remembered for its bitter ironic value since less than a year after the agreement, Hitler's invasion of Poland began World War II.

Peace for our time - Wikipedia

Below, as big a mistake as “Peace for our time.” Approx. 11 minutes but it’s the first 5 minutes of the deliberate untruth.

Covid vaccines are safe

Covid vaccines are safe (youtube.com)

AstraZeneca faces legal challenge over Covid vaccine

Published  9 November 2023

AstraZeneca is facing legal action over its Covid vaccine, by a man who suffered severe brain injury after having the jab in April 2021.

Father-of-two Jamie Scott suffered a blood clot that left him with brain damage and unable to keep working.

The action, taken under the Consumer Protection Act, alleges the vaccine was "defective" as it was less safe than individuals were entitled to expect.

----The legal action is at least a year away from a full court hearing.

A further claim from about 80 people who say they were injured by the AstraZeneca vaccine is also due to be launched later this year but Mr Scott's case is expected to be heard first.

AstraZeneca said: "Patient safety is our highest priority and regulatory authorities have clear and stringent standards to ensure the safe use of all medicines, including vaccines.

"Our sympathy goes out to anyone who has lost loved ones or reported health problems.

---- Many of the claimants have received one-off fixed tax-free payments of £120,000 under the government's Vaccine Damage Payment Scheme (VDPS), which provides compensation for those injured or to bereaved next of kin.

 

Official figures obtained under a Freedom of Information request showed at least 144 out of 148 VDPS payments had gone to recipients of the AstraZeneca vaccine, the Daily Telegraph reported. And an attempt to have the VDPS overhauled is at the heart of these legal actions.

 

Claimants have to show the vaccine caused serious disability of at least 60%. And the families say the level of compensation is wholly insufficient and has not been adjusted for inflation since 2007.

 

On 7 April 2021, the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation advised adults aged under 30 be offered an alternative to the AstraZeneca vaccine, "following reports of extremely rare blood clots in a very small number of people".

 

On 7 May 2021, the guidance was amended to apply to adults aged under 40.

 

­­­---- By September 2022, some 53 million people in the UK had received at least one dose of Covid vaccine.

 

AstraZeneca manufactured the Oxford vaccine on a not-for-profit basis. And the vaccine had saved more than six million lives in its first year of use, more than any other Covid jab, an independent study by disease-forecasting company Airfinity, published last year, estimated.

 

But within a few months of the AstraZeneca vaccine rollout, cases began emerging of a potential side effect from blood clots. And a condition known as vaccine-induced immune thrombosis and thrombocytopenia (VITT) was eventually identified.

AstraZeneca faces legal challenge over Covid vaccine - BBC News

Why Countries Around the World Are Suspending Use of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 Vaccine

MARCH 16, 2021 12:20 PM EDT

It’s the last thing public health officials want to see in the midst of a pandemic: more than two months after pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca and Oxford University scientists released their COVID-19 vaccine, countries in Europe and elsewhere are pausing its use amid disconcerting reports that a small number of recipients have experienced blood clots, some of them fatal.

More

Why AstraZeneca's COVID-19 Vaccine Is Being Suspended | TIME

"A good politician is quite as unthinkable as an honest burglar."

H. L. Mencken.

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

How to Guarantee the Safety of Autonomous Vehicles

As computer-driven cars and planes become more common, the key to preventing accidents, researchers show, is to know what you don’t know.

February 4, 2024

DRIVERLESS CARS AND planes are no longer the stuff of the future. In the city of San Francisco alone, two taxi companies have collectively logged 8 million miles of autonomous driving through August 2023. And more than 850,000 autonomous aerial vehicles, or drones, are registered in the United States—not counting those owned by the military.

But there are legitimate concerns about safety. For example, in a 10-month period that ended in May 2022, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration reported nearly 400 crashes involving automobiles using some form of autonomous control. Six people died as a result of these accidents, and five were seriously injured.

The usual way of addressing this issue—sometimes called “testing by exhaustion”—involves testing these systems until you’re satisfied they’re safe. But you can never be sure that this process will uncover all potential flaws. “People carry out tests until they’ve exhausted their resources and patience,” said Sayan Mitra, a computer scientist at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign. Testing alone, however, cannot provide guarantees.

Mitra and his colleagues can. His team has managed to prove the safety of lane-tracking capabilities for cars and landing systems for autonomous aircraft. Their strategy is now being used to help land drones on aircraft carriers, and Boeing plans to test it on an experimental aircraft this year. “Their method of providing end-to-end safety guarantees is very important,” said Corina Pasareanu, a research scientist at Carnegie Mellon University and NASA’s Ames Research Center.

Their work involves guaranteeing the results of the machine-learning algorithms that are used to inform autonomous vehicles. At a high level, many autonomous vehicles have two components: a perceptual system and a control system. The perception system tells you, for instance, how far your car is from the center of the lane, or what direction a plane is heading in and what its angle is with respect to the horizon. The system operates by feeding raw data from cameras and other sensory tools to machine-learning algorithms based on neural networks, which re-create the environment outside the vehicle.

These assessments are then sent to a separate system, the control module, which decides what to do. If there’s an upcoming obstacle, for instance, it decides whether to apply the brakes or steer around it. According to Luca Carlone, an associate professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, while the control module relies on well-established technology, “it is making decisions based on the perception results, and there’s no guarantee that those results are correct.”

To provide a safety guarantee, Mitra’s team worked on ensuring the reliability of the vehicle’s perception system. They first assumed that it’s possible to guarantee safety when a perfect rendering of the outside world is available. They then determined how much error the perception system introduces into its re-creation of the vehicle’s surroundings.

The key to this strategy is to quantify the uncertainties involved, known as the error band—or the “known unknowns,” as Mitra put it. That calculation comes from what he and his team call a perception contract. In software engineering, a contract is a commitment that, for a given input to a computer program, the output will fall within a specified range. Figuring out this range isn’t easy. How accurate are the car’s sensors? How much fog, rain, or solar glare can a drone tolerate? But if you can keep the vehicle within a specified range of uncertainty, and if the determination of that range is sufficiently accurate, Mitra’s team proved that you can ensure its safety.

More

How to Guarantee the Safety of Autonomous Vehicles | WIRED

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H. L. Mencken.