Baltic Dry Index. 1473 -14 Brent Crude 81.44
Spot
Gold 2033 US
2 Year Yield 4.46 +0.05
Prices
are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
Jesse Livermore.
In the stock casinos, more great disconnect fuelled by AI hype and a dwindling band of the former “magnificent seven.”
That I think it ends badly this year is the lead subject of tomorrow’s weekend update. It’s not all gloom and doom tomorrow though, tomorrow’s technology section has very good news.
Don’t look now, but crude oil prices are
rising again, probably because Israel says no ceasefire in the Gaza ghetto, and
US Treasury yields are rising again, even as the yield curve seems to be flattening.
Japan’s
Nikkei hits fresh 34-year highs; most Asian markets are closed for Lunar New
Year holiday
UPDATED FRI, FEB 9 2024 12:26 AM EST
Japan’s
Nikkei hit fresh 34-year highs on Friday, while most Asia-Pacific markets were
either fully or partially closed for Lunar New Year holidays.
The Nikkei 225 breached
the 37,000 mark for the first time in 34 years, rising 0.4%, while the Topix
was flat.
On Friday, Bank of Japan governor
Kazuo Ueda reportedly told the country’s lower house that easy monetary
conditions will persist even if the BOJ scraps its negative interest rate
policy.
China, South Korea and Taiwan’s
markets will be shut, while Singapore and Hong Kong will see a half day of
trading.
Australia’s S&P/ASX200 closed
0.05% up at 7,642.80, extending its winning streak to three days. The index
still ended the week 0.7% down.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index closed
the half-day trading 0.8% lower at 15,746.58, led by declines in consumer
non-cyclicals and technology stocks. For the week, HSI ended 1.3% higher.
Overnight in the U.S. the S&P 500 finished
little changed on Thursday after briefly topping the 5,000
milestone for the first time on record.
The broad-based index edged up
0.06% to finish at 4,997.91 after reaching a high of 5,000.40.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose
0.13%, while the Nasdaq
Composite gained 0.24%.
Earnings remained investors’ top
focus area, with Disney surging 11.5% after beating
quarterly earnings estimates and raising its forecast.
Chipmaker and designer Arm jumped 47.9%
after reporting
stronger-than-expected earnings and providing an upbeat profit
forecast.
Asia markets live
updates: Nikkei new record, Chinese New Year (cnbc.com)
Stock
futures inch lower in overnight trading after S&P 500 touches historic
5,000 mark: Live updates
UPDATED THU, FEB 8 2024 8:11 PM EST
Stock
futures edged lower Thursday evening after the S&P 500 crossed the historic
5,000 milestone for the first time during intraday trading.
Futures on the Dow Jones
Industrial Average dipped
39 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500
futures slipped
nearly 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures flickered
at the flat line.
The large-cap benchmark reached a
high of 5,000.40 during Thursday’s regular trading before closing less than 3
points below the key 5,000 threshold. The S&P 500 first
crossed 4,000 on April 1, 2021, so it took almost three years to add the last
1,000 points. A solid earnings season, easing inflation data and a resilient
economy have powered the market rally into 2024, with the S&P 500 up 4.8%
on the year.
“On the surface, there is no
difference between 5,000 and 4,999, but these big round numbers do hold
psychological significance for investors,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market
strategist at Carson Group. “As we’ve seen throughout history, those that
are willing to hold during the rough times are usually rewarded in the end,
this time was no different.”
The equity benchmark is up 0.8% this week, on
track to post its fifth straight weekly gain. The blue-chip Dow and
the Nasdaq Composite have
gained 0.2% and 1.1% this week, respectively, also headed for a five-week win
streak.
A total of 319 companies in the
S&P 500 have reported quarterly earnings so far, and 80.6% of them reported
above analyst expectations, according to LSEG. That compares to a 67% beat rate
in a typical quarter since 1994.
Pinterest shares
dropped 9% in extended trading after the image-sharing company issued
a weaker-than-expected forecast and also missed revenue
estimates for the latest quarter. The stock pared losses after the CEO
announced an app deal with Google.
Pepsi is set to report earnings
before the bell Friday.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In other news.
China's New Year
travel rush kicks into high gear, country adds record number of trains
February 9, 2024 4:22
AM GMT
BEIJING, Feb 9 (Reuters) - China on Friday kicked
into high gear on the eve of the annual Lunar New Year holiday, with travellers
cramming onto trains and planes to head back to their hometowns and families
preparing for traditional reunion dinner gatherings.
The country has been adding travel capacity to help
smooth transportation after harsh weather threatened trips for millions
returning home for the holiday. Some 1,873 passenger trains were added on one
day across a vast railway network, a record according to state media outlet
Global Times.
Railway activity ramped up
after snow and freezing rain crippled train service earlier in the week, with some
passengers stuck on trains for hours after power supplies were cut.
Several provinces rushed to upgrade emergency response measures
to remove snow that restricted traffic flow on hundreds of highways, stranding
passengers in cars. Authorities worked to clear ice off power lines and train
tracks, and de-ice planes and runways at airports.
In the busiest travel migration period in the
world, 13.1 million passengers rode on China's national railway on Wednesday
alone. That marked the first time during the Spring Festival travel rush, also
known as Chunyun period, that daily passengers exceeded 13 million, according
to Global Times.
In Shanghai on Friday, railway stations across the
metropolis were expected to have 475,000 passengers, an increase of 61.7% over
the same period in 2019, Shanghai government-owned The Paper reported.
For the two weeks leading up to the Spring
Festival, the Shanghai railway network was expected to send 7,170,900
passengers, exceeding the total in the same period in 2019, The Paper said.
The eight day-long holiday officially begins on
Saturday but many travellers opt to begin their trips earlier. It also marks a
year since China fully lifted COVID-19 curbs that had disrupted the holiday for
the three years prior.
More
China's
New Year travel rush kicks into high gear, country adds record number of trains
| Reuters
Trump ballot
disqualification bid gets skeptical US Supreme Court reception
By Andrew Chung, John Kruzel and Andrew Goudsward
WASHINGTON, Feb 8 (Reuters)
- Donald Trump appeared to be
headed for a big legal victory at the U.S. Supreme Court as the
justices on Thursday signaled their readiness to reject a judicial decision
kicking the former president off the ballot in Colorado for taking
part in an insurrection during the 2021 Capitol attack.
The nine justices heard about two hours of arguments in Trump's
appeal of a Dec. 19 ruling by Colorado's top court to disqualify him from the
state's Republican March 5 primary ballot under the U.S. Constitution's 14th
Amendment after finding that he participated in an insurrection.
The ruling in the case
promises major implications for the Nov. 5 election. Trump, who did not
attend the arguments, is the overwhelming frontrunner for the Republican
nomination to challenge Democratic President Joe Biden.
Section 3 of the 14th Amendment bars from holding public office
any "officer of the United States" who took an oath "to support
the Constitution of the United States" and then "engaged in
insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the
enemies thereof."
Justices - conservatives and liberals alike -
expressed concern during the argument about states taking sweeping actions that
could impact a presidential election nationwide. They pondered how states can
properly enforce the Section 3 disqualification language against candidates,
with several wondering whether Congress must first pass legislation do enable
that.
The Supreme Court's 6-3 conservative majority
includes three justices appointed by Trump.
More
Trump
ballot disqualification bid gets skeptical US Supreme Court reception | Reuters
Biden says
‘my memory is fine,’ disputes special counsel’s report in national address
President Joe Biden on
Thursday evening strongly disputed new claims by Department of Justice special
counsel Robert Hur that he “willfully retained and disclosed classified
materials” as a private citizen, and that he had exhibited poor memory during
an interview about that material.
“My memory has not gotten worse,”
Biden told reporters in a nationally televised address at the White House hours
after Hur released his report.
“My memory is fine.”
“I’m an elderly man, and I know
what the hell I’m doing,” Biden said, in response to a reporter’s question that
noted Hur’s reference to the president as elderly.
“I’ve been president and I put this
country back on its feet. I don’t need his recommendation,” Biden said.
But minutes later, Biden referred
to Egypt’s president as the “president of Mexico.”
More
Biden disputes special counsel report, says memory 'fine' (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Tomorrow,
why I think he might be wrong in underestimating what’s going wrong in the US
and global economies. But what do I know?
The inventor of the market's most famous recession
indicator says 3 factors will ensure a coming downturn isn't too painful
February 7, 2024
The inverted yield curve has
been flashing red for 15 months, but don't think that ongoing economic strength
makes it a false signal, Campbell Harvey wrote in a Research Affiliates note.
Harvey is
known for discovering the most popular recession indicator, which shows that
when yields on short-term Treasury bills move above those on longer-dated
bonds, a downturn will soon follow.
As this has proven true for every recession since the 1960s, the current
inversion signals that a downturn is still likely this year, but a few factors will limit the
scope of an impending slowdown, helping the US achieve a soft landing.
"Given
the track record of the yield indicator, it is with great peril to ignore
it," the Duke University economist said. "The yield curve indicator
suggests growth will substantially slow in 2024. This slow growth may or may
not be associated with a recession. Even in the soft landing scenario, there is
a chance for a minor recession."
First off,
excessive labor demand makes a deep recession unrealistic. With a massive gap
between job openings and job seekers, roughly at 2.5 million, unemployment
won't immediately surge when the economy starts to cool down. With more workers
holding onto their jobs, consumer spending levels will stay robust.
Meanwhile,
strength in today's housing market will stave off a foreclosure crisis that
accompanied the 2008 recession, during which excessive debt levels meant many
homeowners owed more than their house was worth.
This time around,
housing market equity is higher than mortgage debt thanks in part to massive
price appreciation that took place during the pandemic. Americans at the end of
2023 were sitting on $30 trillion of home equity versus $17 trillion in mortgage
debt outstanding.
On the business
side, past experience with the inverted yield curve has led entities to take
preventive action when Treasury rates flip. Through 2023, business investment
retreated, while some implemented labor force reductions.
"Companies
that become leaner have a much better chance of surviving an economic slowdown.
This risk management dampens the volatility of the business cycle which is a
good outcome," Harvey wrote.
Still, it's
unclear where the US economy is headed. In Harvey's view, the Federal Reserve
added to recession risks by pushing interest rates too far. That's as the
central bank is misreading inflation reports, he said, as shelter inflation is
realistically lower than reported.
If recalculated,
the year-to-year consumer price index is below the Fed's 2% target rate.
"To me, the
most effective mitigant for the recession scenario is for the Fed to quickly
reverse course. Ideally, the Fed Funds rate is 3.5% by year end (from 5.25%
today) and the cuts should start immediately."
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Medical lab-on-a-chip runs 32 pathology tests at once
Paul McClure February 07, 2024
Researchers
have used off-the-shelf components to create a sensor device that is not only
cost-effective but can quickly detect 32 different pathogens and has
sensitivities on par with the state-of-the-art biosensors used in pathology
labs. The novel device could have a range of applications, from monitoring the
effectiveness of cancer therapies to predicting the course of viral illnesses.
Diagnosing
diseases early benefits patients and doctors. It enables treatment to slow
disease progression and reduces the risk of complications, thereby improving
long-term health outcomes. With early diagnosis in front of mind, a team from
Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR) research laboratory in Germany has
used off-the-shelf components to construct a cost-effective, palm-sized device
that can detect 32 different pathogens simultaneously.
To create
their novel device, the researchers borrowed from the field of electronics,
using field-effect transistors (FETs) as the basic concept. FETs use an
electric field to control current flow in a semiconductor. There are three
components: source, gate, and drain. Applying a voltage to the gate surface
alters its electrical potential and controls the current flow between the
source and drain. The device is ‘energized’ only when the gate voltage reaches
a certain threshold. Different pathogens generate different electrical
potentials and, therefore, different currents. Cancer cells, for example,
produce a current different from the flu virus. No significant change in the
current means that no disease-relevant biomolecules have bound to the sensor
(gate) surface and vice versa.
A major
disadvantage of traditional FET-based biosensors is that the test surfaces
aren’t reusable, requiring the entire transistor to be discarded after use,
which is costly and not very environmentally friendly. To address this issue,
the researchers used a separate electrode connected to the transistor’s gate to
measure the changes in electrical potential.
“This
allows us the opportunity to use the transistor multiple times,” said Larysa
Baraban, the study’s corresponding author. “We separate the gate and refer to
it as an ‘extended gate’ – that is, an extension of the test system.”
----The researchers used their device to test for
interleukin-6 (IL-6), a protein produced in response to infections and tissue
injuries. It’s a useful marker of immune system activation and can be elevated
in inflammation, infection, autoimmune disorders, cardiovascular diseases, and
some cancers.
“Whether it’s a
simple cold or cancer, the concentration of IL-6 changes,” said Baraban.
“Different diseases as well as different stages of a disease produce different
clinical pictures. That is why IL-6 is very well suited as a marker.”
----They found that their device
produced results quickly and achieved sensitivities and limit of detection
(LOD) values comparable to state-of-the-art FET-based biosensors. Indeed, the
device had significantly lower LOD – defined as the lowest concentration of an
analyte in a sample that can be consistently detected, typically at 95%
certainty – compared to the standard enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA)
method that labs commonly use to detect antibodies in the blood.
The researchers say their
cost-effective biosensing device has a range of potential applications, from
monitoring the progress of immunotherapies in cancer patients to predicting the
severity and course of a viral illness such as the flu or COVID-19.
The study was published in
the journal Biosensors and Bioelectronics.
Medical
lab-on-a-chip runs 32 pathology tests at once (newatlas.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
BAE Systems shows off mystery drone at defence show
David Szondy February 07, 2024
In a teaser
of things to come, BAE Systems has displayed a model of its future drone at the
World Defense Show in Riyadh. Steeped in more mystery than a Raymond Chandler
novel, it gives us a hint of what future military drones might look like.
International
defense shows can often be more like bird watching events than showcases for
the latest military hardware. Defense contractors don't just like to show off
their wares for sale, they also like to give a glimpse of what might be on the
way. Oftentimes, these will be in the form of models or concept images on
display without any explanation of what they are.
Though this can be
a bit frustrating for the curious, it does provide something of an air of
adventure to the proceedings.
In the case of the
latest BAE Systems display, we get a model, but no specifications. Not even a
name. However, there are all sorts of clues that give us some idea about this
aircraft. The drone has a cropped diamond delta wing, which suggests that it can
perform at transonic or supersonic speeds and has a small radar cross section.
It's jet powered, has a V-tail for less drag, an angular hull, shrouded jet
exhausts, and a dark coating, suggesting that stealth plays a large part in its
details.
When we learn more and
whether it leaves the drawing board is up to BAE.
Source: BAE Systems
BAE Systems shows off mystery drone at defense show
(newatlas.com)
Another weekend and the start of the
Chinese (and others) New Year. The year of the Wood Dragon, apparently,
allegedly a year of good luck and good fortune. Something I think we will
desperately need in 2024, as per tomorrow’s weekend update. Have a Great
Weekend everyone.
I knew something was wrong somewhere, but I couldn’t spot it
exactly. But if something was coming and I didn’t know where from, I couldn’t
be on my guard against it. That being the case I’d better be out of the market.
Jesse Livermore.
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