Baltic
Dry Index. 1678 +44
Brent Crude 83.28
Spot
Gold 2029 US 2 Year Yield 4.64 +0.05
Oscar Wilde.
Despite a worsening global economy, the AI stock casinos bubble is still inflating.
When the Great Stock Casino bubble bursts and why is anyone’s guess, but all bubbles burst eventually, and a massive loss of illusionary wealth then ensues, often with dire societal consequences.
Is 2024 or 2025 the replay of 1929?
Japan’s Nikkei surpasses all-time high hit in
1989; Bank of Korea holds rates steady
UPDATED THU, FEB 22 2024 12:02 AM EST
Japan’s
Nikkei hit a record high on Thursday with investors shrugging off dismal
business activity data from the country, while other Asia-Pacific markets
traded in the green.
The Nikkei 225 hit
39,029, surpassing the previous record high of 38,915.87 reached in
1989.
Nikkei
225 was
up 1.65% as investors assessed Japan’s Jibun Bank flash purchasing managers’
index reading for February that showed business activity contracted yet again.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 traded
around the flatline as the nation’s Judo Bank composite purchasing managers’
index for February showed a return to growth, at 51.8. The 50
mark separates growth from contraction.
The monthly index is a leading
indicator for business activity in Australia’s manufacturing and service
sector.
The Kospi traded
0.44% higher. The Bank of Korea is slated to announce its interest rate
decision later, with economists polled by Reuters expecting the bank to hold
rates at 3.50%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index opened
0.15% higher, while China’s CSI 300 added 0.28%.
Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average added
48.44 points, or 0.13%, settling at 38,612.24. The S&P 500 gained
0.13% to end at 4,981.80. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost
0.32% to close at 15,580.87.
Minutes released Wednesday from
the Federal Reserve’s January meeting — which came on the back of
hotter-than-expected economic data the previous week — indicated that central
bankers are in no hurry to cut interest rates.
Asia-Pacific
markets, Korea rate decision, Australia and Japan PMI (cnbc.com)
Japan's crazy 1980s
bubble a dim memory as Nikkei hits record high
February 22, 2024 4:51
AM GMT
SYDNEY, Feb 22 (Reuters) - As Japanese shares finally reclaim past peaks
it harks back to a time when everyone in the country seemed to be a stock
market millionaire - a Tokyo car park was worth more than New York's Central
Park and the future looked like one endless party.
It is difficult now, after three long decades of deadening deflation, to
imagine how truly wild the 1980s' bubble was in Japan, and how speculation
upended its strait-laced culture.
Kazukuni Yamazaki, an 87-year-old investor and a former Nomura
Securities employee, remembers there used to be a digital board showing stock
prices on the first floor of his building.
"Everyone, including groups of young office ladies, was standing
there, checking stock prices and squealing in excitement," he says.
"It was really crazy that everyone was talking about wanting a golf
club membership that cost 500 million yen when none of us was really into
golf," he adds. In 1989, 500 million yen was about $3.5 million.
"It was totally normal to take a day
trip to Hokkaido just to eat ramen for lunch."
Hokkaido
is 831 kilometres (516 miles) north of Tokyo, so the journey is like popping
out from Paris to Barcelona.
The
Nikkei share average (.N225) started 1980 at 6,867 and ended the
decade at 38,915. It rose every single year that decade, sucking in speculators
and culminating in gains of 40% for 1988 and 29% for 1989.
More
Japan's
crazy 1980s bubble a dim memory as Nikkei hits record high | Reuters
European markets set to open higher as investors
focus on euro zone data, earnings
UPDATED THU, FEB 22 2024 12:21 AM EST
European
markets are heading for a higher open Thursday ahead of a busy day of earnings
and data in the region.
Preliminary services and
manufacturing purchasing managers’ index data from the euro zone in February is
due Thursday, and will serve as a gauge of business activity in the region.
Meanwhile, earnings are due from
Nestle, Zurich Insurance, Iberdrola, Telefonica, Lloyds Banking Group,
Rolls-Royce, WPP, Anglo American and Hargreaves Lansdown.
Overnight, Japan’s Nikkei hit a
record high on Thursday, with investors shrugging off dismal business activity
data from the country, while other Asia-Pacific
markets traded in the green. S&P
500 futures rose in overnight trading Wednesday, boosted by a
jump in Nvidia shares.
European
markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
S&P 500 futures rise in early trading,
Nvidia shares jump: Live updates
UPDATED THU, FEB 22 2024 12:34 AM EST
S&P 500
futures rose early Thursday, boosted by a jump in Nvidia shares as the chip
giant posted record revenue and issued upbeat guidance.
S&P
500 futures climbed
0.75% and Nasdaq 100 futures gained
1.48%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average added
47 points, or 0.12%.
Nvidia shares
popped 9% in after-hours trading after the chip company said total
revenue rose a whopping 265% from a year ago, driven by its
booming artificial intelligence business. Nvidia, which has become the
fifth-largest company in the U.S. by market capitalization, also forecast
another stellar revenue gain for the current quarter, even against elevated
expectations for massive growth.
AI enthusiasm has powered the
jaw-dropping rally in Nvidia, along with other Big Tech names, over the past
year. The chipmaker’s blowout quarter could further boost confidence in the
space that has benefited the broader market.
“Bears tried to hit NVDA and sell
the news, but there isn’t much to dislike in this report,” said David Russell,
global head of market strategy at TradeStation. “There’s potentially
a lot of growth ahead for this company with years of AI investment expected.”
The Nasdaq Composite could
see a rebound from its three-day losing streak on Thursday. So far this week,
the tech-heavy index has lost more than 1%.
On Wednesday, minutes
from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting showed that central
bank officials expressed caution about lowering interest rates too quickly
and emphasized the importance of “carefully assessing” incoming data in
judging whether inflation is moving down sustainably to 2%.
“Investors should know that the
path of disinflation will likely be choppy, creating volatility in the rates
market,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial.
On Thursday, investors will be
watching for weekly jobless claims data and existing home sales figures from
January.
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In other news, meet the African Argentina.
More disaster from the Great Nixonian Error of Fiat Money.
Africa’s largest economy is battling a
currency crisis and soaring inflation
With annual inflation nearing 30% and a currency
in freefall, Nigeria is facing one of its worst economic crises in years,
provoking nationwide outrage and protests.
The Nigerian naira hit a new
all-time low against the U.S. dollar on both the official and parallel foreign
exchange markets on Monday, sliding to almost 1,600 against the greenback on
the official market from around 900 at the start of the year.
President Bola Tinubu announced Tuesday that the federal government plans
to raise at least $10 billion to boost foreign exchange liquidity and stabilize
the naira, according to multiple local media reports.
The currency is down around 70%
since May
2023 when Tinubu took office, inheriting a struggling economy and
promising a raft of reforms aimed at steadying the ship.
In a bid to fix the beleaguered
economy and attract international investment, Tinubu unified Nigeria’s multiple
exchange rates and enabled market forces to set the exchange rate,
sending the currency plunging. In January, the market regulator also changed how it calculates the currency’s closing
rate, resulting in another de facto devaluation.
Years of foreign exchange controls
have also generated enormous pent-up demand for U.S. dollars at a time when
overseas investment and crude oil exports have declined.
“The weakened
exchange rate should increase imported inflation, which will exacerbate price
pressures in Nigeria,” Pieter Scribante, senior political economist at Oxford
Economics, said in a note Friday.
The country is
Africa’s largest economy and has a population of more than 210 million people,
but relies heavily on imports to meet the needs of its rapidly growing
population.
“Shrinking disposable
incomes and worsening cost-of-living pressures should remain concerns
throughout 2024, further stifling consumer spending and private sector growth,”
Scribante added.
Inflation, meanwhile,
continues to soar, with the headline consumer price index hitting 29.9%
year-on-year in January, its highest level since 1996. The increase is being
driven by a persistent rise in food prices which jumped by 35.4% last month
compared to the year before.
More
Africa's largest economy is battling a currency crisis and soaring inflation (cnbc.com)
Finally, in commodities, a tin shortage.
Indonesian export
slump ripples through tin market
By Andy Home February 21, 2024 12:00 AM GMT
LONDON, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Indonesia's exports of
refined tin all but evaporated in January with just 400 metric tons shipped
abroad by the world's largest exporter, all in the form of solder.
That represented the lowest monthly volume since
August 2015, when Indonesia imposed an export regime to exclude illegally mined
metal. This time too, the drop is down to a change in permitting.
Tin exports will resume, but the uncertainty has unsettled
both paper and physical markets.
The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month tin
price , currently trading at around $26,500 per ton, is up by 5.3% on the start
of the year.
Tin is the only base metal showing any year-to-date
gains. The rest of the LME pack are struggling in the face of weak demand and
reduced manufacturing activity.
But tin supply is highly concentrated and the
sudden drop in Indonesian refined metal shipments coincides with the ongoing
suspension of operations at the world's biggest mine in Myanmar.
Indonesian exports fell by
12% to 75,000 tons last year, but that was still equivalent to around a fifth
of global demand.
Ironically, the change in mine permitting process from annual to
every three years is meant to cut red tape and smooth the flow of exports over
the start of every year.
But there are now a lot of miners in Indonesia thanks to the
country's nickel boom and the country's mining ministry is still processing
hundreds, opens new tab of mine approval
requests. Without an approved mining plan, operators cannot export.
Pt Timah (TINS.JK), opens new tab, the country's largest tin
producer, got its official stamp of approval this month but many independent
producers are still in the bureaucratic queue.
The annual export approval process has in the past caused tin
export volumes to drop in January. But this year there were no shipments of
ingot at all last month and it appears it will be some time before flows return
to normal.
More
Indonesian export slump ripples through tin market |
Reuters
Some ideas are so stupid that only intellectuals believe them.
George Orwell.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
The
US Fed is just 19 days away from ending it’s US bank rescue program the Bank
Term Funding Program. My guess is that a US banking crisis quickly follows.
Distressed commercial real estate debt outweighs reserves at six biggest US banks
February 20, 2024
Bad loans tied to commercial real
estate now outweigh loss reserves at the six biggest banks in the US, raising
concerns about the possible consequences of a further deterioration in the
sector.
The six largest US banks – JP Morgan,
Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citi, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley – now have
just 90 cents set aside per dollar of commercial real estate debt on which a
borrower is 30 days late, according to a report from the FT,
This
is down from $1.60 per dollar of distressed real estate debt in 2022, the
report said pointing to filings to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.
The decrease in provisioning came as the value of delinquent commercial
property debt nearly tripled in the last year to $9.3bn.
Commercial
real estate has been an area of concern in the US for the last few
years with the pandemic and the rise of flexible working denting office
valuations.
Many companies who bought
offices in an era of low interest rates are now also facing spiralling bills
when looking to refinance, making it more likely that borrowers will struggle
to repay their debts.
Banks build reserves in order
to cover potential losses. The required reserve rates differ depending on the
perceived risk of the asset and traditionally real estate is seen as a fairly
safe asset, meaning it gets a lower requirement.
However, the impact of the
pandemic means the sector might now be a riskier bet.
Worries about commercial real
estate have resurfaced in recent weeks after New York Community Bancorp upped
its provisions for credit losses to $552m, up from just $62m in the previous
quarter.
This was partly driven by
expectations of default in commercial real estate.
Last week Fed vice chair of
supervision, Michael Barr, said that regulators were “closely focused” on how
firms are managing risk tied to commercial real estate.
Distressed commercial real estate debt outweighs
reserves at six biggest US banks (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
US Vaccine Injury
Compensation Program Has 10-Year Backlog of Claims
A
congressional subcommittee hearing highlighted problems with the U.S.
compensation program for COVID-19 vaccine injuries.
2/20/2024 Updated: 2/20/2024
It may take
more than 10 years for someone injured by a COVID-19 vaccine to receive a
decision on whether their claim is eligible for compensation by the
government’s vaccine compensation program—if they receive a response at all.
U.S. health
officials responded to questions on America’s failing vaccine injury
compensation system in a hearing that left the vaccine-injured feeling like
addressing the system’s shortcomings is not a priority on Capitol Hill.
As of Jan. 1, there were 12,854 claims filed for
injuries caused by COVID-19 countermeasures with the government’s
Countermeasures Injury Compensation Program (CICP), including 9,600 related to
injuries caused by COVID-19 vaccines. Of the 12,854 claims, 2,214 have been
processed, but only 40 claims have been found eligible for compensation.
According
to testimony given
during a Feb. 15 hearing of the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus
Pandemic, there’s a backlog of about 10,800 claims. With only 35 employees
processing claims at a rate of 2.7 cases per employee per month, it will take
about 10 years to process the remaining claims.
“I just
don’t think it’s right. I think we need to streamline this process,” Rep. Rich
McCormick (R-Ga.) said during the hearing. “We need to speed up this process by
about tenfold in order to do our job for the American people.”
According to CICP data, as of Jan. 1, only
11 people have received compensation for their injuries out of 40 COVID-19
claims found eligible for compensation. The average award was a mere
$3,700, whereas the average payout under the National Vaccine Injury
Compensation Program (VICP) that handles injuries caused by routine vaccines is
$490,000.
More
US Vaccine Injury Compensation Program Has 10-Year
Backlog of Claims | The Epoch Times
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Graphene
biosensor offers accurate assessment of meat freshness
February 20, 2024
The freshness of animal meat is an essential
property determining its quality and safety. With advanced technology capable
of preserving food for extended periods of time, meat can be shipped around the
globe and consumed long after an animal dies. As global meat consumption rates
increase, so too does the demand for effective measures for its age.
Despite the technological advances keeping meat
fresh for as long as possible, certain aging processes are unavoidable.
Adenosine triphosphate (ATP) is a molecule produced by breathing and
responsible for providing energy to cells. When an animal stops breathing, ATP
synthesis also stops, and the existing molecules decompose into acid,
diminishing first flavor and then safety. Hypoxanthine (HXA) and xanthine are
intermediate steps in this transition. Assessing their prevalence in meat
indicates its freshness.
In AIP Advances, from AIP
Publishing, researchers from the Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, VNU
University of Science, Hanoi University of Science and Technology, and the
Russian Academy of Sciences developed a biosensor using graphene electrodes
modified by zinc oxide nanoparticles to measure HXA. The team demonstrated the
sensor's efficacy on pork meat.
While many HXA sensing methods
currently exist, they can be costly and time-consuming and require specialists.
In comparison to modern food-testing
methods, like high-performance liquid chromatography, gas chromatography, mass
spectrometry, atomic and molecular spectroscopy, and nuclear magnetic resonance
spectroscopy, biosensors like our sensor offer superior advantages in time,
portability, high sensitivity, and selectivity."
Ngo Thi Hong Le, Author
The sensor is produced using a
polyimide film, which is converted into porous graphene using a pulsed laser.
The added zinc oxide nanoparticles attract the HXA molecules to the electrode
surface. When HXA interacts with the electrode, it oxidizes and transfers its
electrons, spiking the electrode's voltage. The linear relationship between HXA
and voltage increase enables easy determination of HXA content.
To assess the sensor's ability, the researchers
tested solutions with known quantities of HXA. After the outstanding
performance, the researchers measured the biosensor's practicality using pork
tenderloins purchased from a supermarket. The sensor performed with over 98%
accuracy, favorable detection range, and low detection limit.
"In Vietnam, pork is the
most consumed meat," said Le. "Therefore, pork quality monitoring is
one of the important requirements in the food industry in our country, which is
why we prioritized it."
More than just pork, any meat
product can be evaluated by this biosensor.
Source:
Graphene
biosensor offers accurate assessment of meat freshness (msn.com)
"Indeed the temporary breaks in the market which preceded the crash were a serious trial for those who had declined fantasy. Early in 1928, in June, in December, and in February and March of 1929 it seemed that the end had come. On various of these occasions the [New York] Times happily reported the return to reality. And then the market took flight again. Only a durable sense of doom could survive such discouragement. The time was coming when the optimists would reap a rich harvest of discredit. But it has long since been forgotten that for many months those who resisted reassurance were similarly, if less permanently discredited.”
J. K. Galbraith. The Great Crash: 1929.
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