Baltic Dry Index. 1866 +114 Brent
Crude 81.62
Spot Gold 2035 U S 2
Year Yield 4.67 -0.02
The most important thing to remember is that inflation is not an act of God, that inflation is not a catastrophe of the elements or a disease that comes like the plague. Inflation is a policy.
Ludwig von Mises.
In the global stock casinos, the final bout of stock mania AI feeding frenzy. Is the crack-up boom underway?
Dow
rises to close at fresh record, S&P 500 hits all-time high: Live updates
UPDATED FRI, FEB 23 2024 4:36 PM EST
The S&P
500 stabilized Friday after hitting another record as investors wrapped the
week on a high note.
The S&P 500 inched
higher by 0.03% to close at 5,088.80. Earlier Friday, the broad market index
broke above 5,100 for the first time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added
62.42 points, or 0.16%, also reaching a fresh record and closing at an all-time
high of 39,131.53. The Nasdaq Composite lost
0.28% to close at 15,996.82, but had notched a fresh 52-week high earlier in
the session.
All three major averages
registered winning weeks. The S&P 500 advanced 1.66%, while the tech-heavy
Nasdaq gained 1.4% this week. The Dow is up 1.3% for the period.
“The question from here is do investors shake
that momentum? We’ve run up so far, so quickly. It might not make a lot of
sense to chase that type of momentum,” said Charlie Ripley, senior investment
strategist at Allianz Investment Management.
“Obviously, we haven’t seen quite
the momentum as we have from technology stocks...I think that does pose some
risks in terms of where the index goes ultimately, because clearly everything’s
front-loaded into the technology shares,” he added.
Wall Street is coming off a
monster day as Nvidia shares roared on strong quarterly
results, leading the chipmaker to briefly surpass a $2 trillion
valuation. On Thursday, the S&P 500 had its best day since January 2023,
while the Nasdaq Composite popped nearly 3% for its best session since February
2023. The 30-stock Dow gained about 1.2%.
More
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
European
stocks close higher as Stoxx 600 notches fresh record; Standard Chartered up 6%
UPDATED FRI, FEB 23 2024 11:58 AM EST
European stocks closed
higher Friday, extending positive momentum after the pan-European benchmark
finished at a record high.
After a slow start to the week, the regional Stoxx 600 index has
pushed higher over the last two sessions on a mix of data and earnings, gaining
0.4% on Friday. Autos stocks were up 1%, while technology stocks fell 0.33%.
Earnings from Standard Chartered showed
an 18%
increase in pre-tax profits, pushing shares up 9.8% before
paring gains. Meanwhile, Allianz shares
sunk 3.2% after fourth-quarter operating profits in its property division came
in below expectations.
U.K. consumer confidence dipped
in February, new survey data from GfK showed Friday, indicating that higher
inflation continues to weigh on hopes of an economic upturn.
U.S.
stocks are also scaling record levels, with the S&P 500
index breaking above 5,100 for the first time on Friday.
In Asia-Pacific,
markets finished mostly higher, with China stocks rising for the ninth straight
session as investors digested property prices data.
European
markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
What Is a
Crack-Up Boom? Definition, History, Causes and Examples
Updated
October 06, 2021
What Is a Crack-Up Boom?
A crack-up boom is an economic crisis that involves a
recession in the real economy and a collapse of the monetary system due to
continual credit expansion and resulting in unsustainable, rapid price
increases. This concept of a crack-up boom was developed by Austrian economist Ludwig
von Mises as a part of the Austrian business cycle theory
(ABCT).1
The crack-up boom is characterized by two key features:
1) excessively expansionary monetary policy that, in addition to the normal
consequences described in ABCT, leads to out-of-control inflation expectations and 2) a resulting
bout of hyperinflation which
ends in the abandonment of the currency by market participants and a
simultaneous recession or depression.
More
What Is a Crack-Up
Boom? Definition, History, Causes and Examples (investopedia.com)
In
Europe, inflation shock, with more food price inflation to come from Ireland through
to northern Europe’s 2023-2024 great rains.
Central Europe's shoppers still shell-shocked even as
inflation ebbs
By Gergely Szakacs and Karl Badohal February 23, 2024 6:06
AM GMT
----"We
expect weak consumer sentiment to persist in the European market in 2024 as
consumers opt for lower prices and delay non-essential or occasional
expenditure," Peter Toth, head of Central and Eastern Europe South sales
area at Electrolux, told Reuters when asked about the health of demand on the
European Union's eastern wing.
The reality across the region is that there are scant signs of a
recovery in consumption that governments were counting on to offset weaker demand for
exports from a stuttering German economy and pull the region out from last
year's inflation-led downturn.
Both the Czech Republic and Hungary slid into
recession, while Poland avoided it by the narrowest of margins.
Just four weeks into the new year, the Czech
government cut its 2024 growth forecast citing weaker-than-expected recovery in
consumption, while the Hungarian central bank has issued a similar warning.
Even in Poland, which is expected to see the
sharpest wage gains in the region this year, consumer spending was off to a
mixed start in January after the gross savings rate dipped into negative
territory in four quarters since the start of 2022.
While a jump in vehicle and car part sales and
housing renovations lifted headline retail sales data above forecasts,
economists at Bank Pekao said January was a "hopeless month" for
clothing, while other durable goods sales also fell.
"We remain sceptical about the potential of
the Polish consumer," it said. "In our opinion, 2024 will be a year
of saving rather than a consumption boom. Of the 7-8% real increase in income,
Polish consumers will spend approximately half."
Data published on Wednesday showed how a steady
improvement in consumer sentiment since late 2022 stalled in February amid
renewed concerns about Poland's and households' economic prospects.
"The relatively low gross household savings
rate compared to other central and eastern European countries could have a
dampening effect on the recovery of private consumption," Fitch Ratings
associate director Malgorzata Krzywicka said, while adding she still saw
consumption contributing something to overall growth.
Despite some recent improvement, consumer
confidence in the Czech Republic and Hungary remains weak, with grocery prices
now close to those in the euro zone where disposable incomes are substantially
higher.
These countries face the weakest recovery prospects
in central Europe in 2024 based on the European Commission's latest forecasts,
which projected 2.7% growth for Poland, below Warsaw's estimate for 3% or more.
More
Central Europe's shoppers still shell-shocked even as
inflation ebbs | Reuters
‘Our yields are going to be
appalling’: one of wettest winters in decades hits England’s farms
February
23, 2024
“We have had the wettest October, November and December since we started
keeping records 27 years ago,” says Andrew Ward, a Lincolnshire-based arable
farmer.
He flicks through videos on his phone of nearby fields that have been
devastated by the heavy rain this winter, including one that shows him in front
of what looks like a lake.
“That is my godson’s farm,” he says,
pointing out the two-metre-deep water that has completely engulfed the land.
“He’s been flooded since October [...] The farm was drilled and fertilised
[before the rain], so he may have lost £70,000 in one go.”
Fortunately for Ward, his 650-hectare (1,600-acre) farm,
which produces wheat, sugar beet, barley and beans, has not been as
waterlogged, but the high rainfall has taken its toll.
“We managed to get about 25% of winter crops planted
[...] Our yields this harvest are going to be appalling,” he adds.
Speak to farmers across the country and you will hear
similar stories of how one of the wettest winters in decades has ruined
thousands of acres of crops and put farms under tremendous financial pressure.
Few
regions have been spared.
In the 12 months to January, only four of
England’s 139 hydrological areas (regions around rivers, lakes and other water
sources) were classed as having normal rainfall levels. Of the remaining areas,
47 were rated as having notably high levels, and 76 – more than half – were
deemed exceptionally high.
The Kent area, known as “the garden of England” and home to many arable
farmers, experienced its wettest 12-month period since records began.
Regions near major rivers such as the Wear, Don, Calder, Derwent, Mersey
and Irwell reported the wettest six-month period since records began.
While January provided some respite, the UK Centre for Ecology and
Hydrology (UKCEH) said the saturation from the previous months of heavy rain
meant soil had not had a chance to dry out, and the high February rain meant
problems persisted.
For the 1,500 delegates at the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) conference
this week, flooding was top of the agenda in the conference halls and coffee
breaks.
----The forecasts for this year’s harvest look gloomy. The
Agricultural and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) is predicting that wheat
outputs will drop by a quarter.
David Eudall, the economics and analysis director at the AHDB, says: “In
2019-2020 when we had a very similar wet period through the autumn and winter
for planting, we saw a 24% reduction in the planted area.
“Considering we’re in a similar area and have similar weather pattern
we’d expect we’re going to see a similar magnitude of scale.”
That means production falling from about 14m tonnes of wheat, to about
10m tonnes.
The drier spring season would usually provide a chance for new crops to
be sown. But increased demand for spring seed from farmers who missed out on
planting in the winter because of the rain has led to shortages and higher
costs.
“Seed availability is a massive problem,” says Ward. “Merchants are
trying to get seed from abroad, which costs horrendous amounts of money.”
More
Finally,
more of the world turns against the USA for its supine response to Israel’s murderous
war on the Gaza Ghetto’s women and children. And not before time too.
MSF slams US on Gaza at UN, says children as young as 5 want
to die
By Michelle Nichols
February
22, 2024 11:22 PM GMT Updated February 2023.
UNITED NATIONS, Feb 22 (Reuters) - The head of
Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders) told the United Nations
Security Council on Thursday that medical teams in the Gaza Strip have come up
with a new acronym: WCNSF - wounded child, no surviving family.
"Children who do survive this war will not
only bear the visible wounds of traumatic injuries, but the invisible ones
too," MSF International Secretary General Christopher Lockyear told the
15-member council.
"There is a repeated
displacement, constant fear and witnessing family members literally dismembered
before their eyes," he said. "These psychological injuries have led
children as young as five to tell us that they would prefer to die."
Lockyear slammed the United States, saying he was appalled it
had repeatedly used its veto power to block the council from demanding an
immediate humanitarian ceasefire in the war between Israel and Palestinian
militants Hamas in Gaza.
"The people of Gaza
need a ceasefire, not when practicable, but now. They need a sustained
ceasefire, not a temporary period of calm," Lockyear said. "Anything
short of this is gross negligence."
The U.S. has vetoed three U.N.
Security Council resolutions since the start of the current fighting on Oct. 7,
most recently blocking on Tuesday a demand for an immediate humanitarian
ceasefire as it instead pushes
council to call for a temporary ceasefire linked to the release of hostages held
by Hamas.
China's U.N. Ambassador Zhang Jun told the council
he felt "appalled" by Lockyear's briefing.
"We hope the tragic picture that he painted of
Gaza for us can touch the conscience of a certain member of this council,"
Zhang said.
The United States had said
it was concerned that the draft resolution it vetoed on Tuesday could jeopardize talks
between the U.S., Egypt, Israel and Qatar that seek to broker a six week pause
in the war and the release of hostages.
Deputy U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Robert Wood did not
acknowledge Lockyear's briefing. He said the U.S. was pushing Israel to allow
more aid into Gaza and had told its ally it should not proceed with a ground
offensive in Rafah in southern Gaza "in the absence of a viable plan to
protect civilians."
----Britain's U.N. Ambassador Barbara Woodward
described Lockyear's briefing as "harrowing." Britain abstained on
Tuesday's vote, while the remaining 13 council members voted in favor of the
Algerian-drafted resolution.
Slovenia's U.N. Ambassador to the Security Council,
Samuel Zbogar, asked: "What kind of a council have we become if we remain
untouched by the tearful briefing that we heard today by the secretary general
of Médecins Sans Frontières?"
The war began when fighters from the Hamas militant
group that runs Gaza attacked Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people and
capturing 253 hostages, according to Israeli tallies. In retaliation, Israel
launched a military assault on Gaza that health authorities say has killed
nearly 30,000 Palestinians with thousands more bodies feared lost amid the
ruins.
"Today our staff are back at work risking
their lives once again for their patients. What are you willing to risk?"
Lockyear asked the council.
MSF slams US on Gaza at UN, says children as young as 5 want to die | Reuters
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
106
Years of Money-Printing Replicated In Mere Months…
Still, here’s one powerful
metric that our mad-money pumpers in Washington surely didn’t notice as they
ran the Fed’s printing presses red hot. To wit, the Fed’s balance sheet crossed
the $5.2 trillion mark for the very first time in history on March 25, 2020.
That’s right. It took the Fed 106 years from the day it opened its doors for business in 1914 to reach the $5.2 trillion mark. And then it nearly replicated that figure in a matter of months.
David Stockman, Contra Corner.
Has US Debt become a global problem? Simple answer,
probably, but when and why?
Government debt is never a problem, until one day, usually for unexpected reasons, suddenly it is.
The Huns, and others, in December 406 cross the frozen river Rhine and sack much of the Roman Empire. The Roman Empire in the west goes into decline.
GB foolishly gets involved in WW1 and goes bust. Later gets into WW2 for Poland, which can't be supported from GB or France, and having turned down Stalin's offer of a pact with GB and France to defend Poland, Stalin does a deal with Hitler. GB goes bust for a second time in less than 40 years.
President Biden Joe
Biden weaponises the dollar, causing 2/3rds of the world to start looking for
ways to de-dollarise trade!!! The latest being Egypt.
U.S. publicly held debt 2013-2023
In December 2023,
the public debt of the United States was around 34.2 trillion U.S. dollars,
over two trillion more than in July when it was around 32.6 trillion U.S.
dollars.
The U.S. public debt ceiling has become one of the most prominent political
issues in the States in recent years, with debate over how to handle it causing
political turmoil between Democrats and Republicans.
The
public debt
The public debt of the United
States has risen quickly since 2000, and in 2022 was more than five times higher than in 2000.
The public debt is the total outstanding debt that is owed by the federal
government. This figure is comprised of debt owed to the public (for example,
through bonds) and intragovernmental debt (debt owed to various governmental
departments), such as Social Security.
More
Public debt U.S. by month 2023 | Statista
Gross
Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2023 (Advance Estimate)
Real gross domestic
product (GDP) increased at an
annual rate of 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 (table 1), according
to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic
Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent.
The GDP estimate released
today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further
revision by the source agency (refer to "Source Data for the Advance
Estimate" on page 3). The "second" estimate for the fourth
quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 28, 2024.
---- Compared to the third
quarter of 2023, the deceleration in real GDP in the fourth
quarter primarily reflected slowdowns in private inventory investment, federal
government spending, residential fixed investment, and consumer spending.
Imports decelerated.
Current‑dollar GDP increased 4.8 percent at an
annual rate, or $328.7 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $27.94
trillion. In the third quarter, GDP increased
8.3 percent, or $547.1 billion (tables 1 and 3).
More
The advocates of public control cannot do without inflation. They need it in order to finance their policy of reckless spending and of lavishly subsidizing and bribing the voters.
Ludwig von Mises.
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Two new rare
Covid vaccine side effects revealed by global study of over 99 million people
February 23, 2024
A global study of over 99
million people across eight countries has identified two new harmful but very rare side
effects of Covid-19 vaccines, an
advance that could lead to better health monitoring of immunised people.
Researchers part of an
international collaboration called the Global Vaccine Data Network (GVDN) hosted at the University of
Auckland assessed 13 neurological, blood, and heart-related medical conditions
to see if there was a greater risk of them in patients after receiving a Covid-19 vaccine.
The study
assessed deidentified data of millions of people who received a Covid-19
vaccine, and examined if there is a greater risk of developing a medical
condition in various periods after getting a vaccine compared
with before the vaccine became available.
It found that some patients
had heart inflammation conditions like myocarditis and pericarditis after they
took mRNA vaccines, and some had muscle-weakening Guillain-Barré syndrome and a
type of blood clot in the brain after taking viral vector vaccines.
Researchers also found signs
of inflammation of part of the spinal cord (transverse myelitis) after taking
viral vector vaccines as well as inflammation and swelling in the brain and
spinal cord – also known as acute disseminated encephalomyelitis – after some
people took viral vector and mRNA vaccines.
However, the chances of having a neurological event after infection with
the novel coronavirus were up to 617-fold higher than following Covid-19
vaccination, suggesting that the “benefits of vaccination substantially
outweigh the risks,” scientists say.
“This multi-country analysis confirmed pre-established safety signals
for myocarditis, pericarditis, Guillain-Barré syndrome, and cerebral venous
sinus thrombosis,” scientists wrote, adding that “other potential safety
signals” requiring further studies were also identified
“The size of the population in this study increased the possibility of
identifying rare potential vaccine safety signals. Single sites or regions are
unlikely to have a large enough population to detect very rare signals,” study
co-author Kristýna Faksová said in a statement.
Researchers are conducting further studies to build upon the current
understanding of Covid-19 vaccines to better unravel their safety using big
data.
“By making the data dashboards publicly available, we are able to
support greater transparency, and stronger communications to the health sector
and public,” Helen Petousis-Harris, another author of the study, said.
While the study identified rare safety signals following Covid-19
vaccination, scientists say “further investigation is warranted to confirm
associations and assess clinical significance” of these findings.
Two new rare Covid vaccine side effects revealed by
global study of over 99 million people (msn.com)
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
This weekend something different. The
invention of the decimal point.
The
invention of the decimal dot that changed mathematics forever
Michael
Irving February 21, 2024
Historians have discovered what may be the
world's first decimal point, in an ancient manuscript written 150 years before
its next known appearance. There have been many ways to split integers, but
this little dot has proven uniquely powerful.
The mathematics we all learn at school seems so
fundamental that it doesn’t feel like individual concepts in it would need
“inventing,” but these pieces
arose separately as scientists and mathematicians realized
they were needed. For instance, scientists recently found the oldest
written record of the numeral “0,” dating back 500 years
earlier than previously thought.
Now, it looks like the decimal point is also older
than expected. Ever since we’ve realized we sometimes need to break numbers
into smaller fragments, humans have denoted the difference using various
symbols – dashes, vertical lines, arcs and underscores have filled the role,
but none of those have survived into modern usage. Commas and periods are the
most common now, so when did they start?
Previously, the earliest known use of a period as a
decimal point was thought to be an astronomical table by the German
mathematician Christopher Clavius in 1593. But according to modern scientists,
that kind of test is a weird place to introduce such a massive concept to the
world, and Clavius didn’t really go on to use the idea much in his later
writings. Basically, if he realized the need for the concept and invented a
neat way to display and work with it, why didn’t he brag about it?
The answer, it seems, is that Clavius was just
borrowing an older idea that had essentially been lost to time, and wasn’t the preferred
method in his era. A new study has found that the decimal point dates back to
the 1440s – about 150 years earlier – first appearing in the writings of
Italian mathematician Giovanni Bianchini.
Bianchini was a professor of mathematics and
astronomy at the University of Ferrara, but he also had a background in what
we’d now call finance – he was a merchant, and managed assets and investments
for a wealthy ruling family of the time. That real-world experience seems to
have influenced his mathematical work, since Bianchini was known to have
created his own system of dividing measurement units like feet into 10 equal
parts to make them easier to work with. As fundamental as it feels to modern
sensibilities, it didn’t catch on with the 15th century crowd who were used to
a base-60 system.
More
The invention of the decimal dot that changed
mathematics forever (newatlas.com)
This weekend’s music diversion. Another long-forgotten maestro. Approx. 7 minutes.
Francesco Maria Veracini - Concerto à otto
stromenti in D Major (3rd mvt)
F. M. Veracini: Concerto a otto stromenti (1712) - III. [no movement title] (youtube.com)
Francesco Maria Veracini (1 February 1690 – 31 October 1768) was an Italian
composer and violinist, perhaps best known for his sets of violin sonatas. As a composer,
according to Manfred Bukofzer, "His
individual, if not subjective, style has no precedent in baroque music and
clearly heralds the end of the entire era",[1] while Luigi Torchi maintained
that "he rescued the imperiled music of the eighteenth century",[2] His contemporary, Charles Burney, held that
"he had certainly a great share of whim and caprice, but he built his
freaks on a good foundation, being an excellent contrapuntist".[3] The asteroid 10875 Veracini was named
after him.
Much, more.
Francesco Maria
Veracini - Wikipedia
This weekend’s chess
update. Approx. 13 minutes.
Fighting
Spirit is Always Rewarded!
Fighting Spirit is Always Rewarded! (youtube.com)
Finally,
the Leaning Tower of Pisa New
York. Approx. 15 minutes.
Abandoned
- 1 Seaport (New York's Leaning Tower)
Abandoned - 1 Seaport (New York's Leaning Tower) (youtube.com)
The Anglo-Portuguese Alliance is the world’s oldest alliance in known history, established by the Treaty of Windsor in 1386. The Portuguese and English alliance was signed on May 19, 1386, between the Kingdom of England and the Kingdom of Portugal. These two countries have always had a strong friendship throughout the centuries, dating back to 1147 when English crusaders helped King Alfonso I capture Lisbon from the Moors.
Anglo-Portuguese
Alliance: The World’s Oldest Alliance - Portugal.com
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