2024 = 1929 2.0. A Crash Coming. Scotch Wine.

Baltic Dry Index. 1487 -29            Brent Crude  79.61

Spot Gold 2033                  US 2 Year Yield 4.41 +0.02

People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices…. But though the law cannot hinder people of the same trade from sometimes assembling together, it ought to do nothing to facilitate such assemblies, much less to render them necessary.

Adam Smith, The Wealth Of Nations, 1776.

In the stock casinos, more hopium and hype. But to dinosaur Graeme, following stock and commodity markets since Noah came out of the Ark, well 1968, I think the casinos are headed for a 1929 type crash, rather than a 1987 type crash.

But that is the subject of the weekend LIR update.

But the really good news in the weekend edition lies in the technology section.

Asia markets mostly rise with Nikkei at fresh 34-year highs; China producer prices continue to fall

UPDATED WED, FEB 7 2024 10:23 PM EST

Japan’s Nikkei led gains in Asia-Pacific markets on Thursday, hitting fresh 34-year highs, after a report suggested the country’s central bank would not aggressively tighten its monetary policy.

Investors also assessed China’s January inflation data and awaited the Reserve Bank of India’s rate decision.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rallied 1.71% after falling for two straight days, while the Topix gained 0.48%.

Reuters reported that BOJ deputy governor Shinichi Uchida said the central bank was unlikely to raise interest rates aggressively, even after ending its negative interest rate policy.

China’s consumer price index for January fell 0.8% year on year, steeper than the 0.5% drop expected by economists polled by Reuters. On a month on month basis, the CPI rose 0.3%, a slower rate compared to the 0.4% expected.

The Reserve Bank of India is forecast to hold rates at 6.5%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slipped 0.47% after the CPI announcement, but the mainland Chinese CSI 300 rose 0.65%.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 extended gains for a third straight day, climbing 0.47%.

South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.5%, while the small cap Kosdaq saw a larger gain of 1.5%.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes rose, with the S&P 500 setting another all time record and nearly breaching the 5,000 mark. The index gained 0.82% to finish at 4,995.06, but at session highs, the S&P hit 4,999.89.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average also reached a new all time high of 38,677.36 after rallying 0.4%, while  Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.95%.

Asia markets live updates: China CPI, China PPI, RBI rate decision (cnbc.com)

European markets head for higher open ahead of a slew of earnings

UPDATED THU, FEB 8 2024 12:28 AM EST

European markets are heading for a positive open on Thursday as investors focus on a slew of earnings set to come from Unilever, Societe Generale, Maersk, Siemens and Adyen.

Regional markets retreated Wednesday amid ongoing uncertainty over the rate cut outlook.

Japan’s Nikkei led gains in Asia-Pacific markets on Thursday, hitting fresh 34-year highs, after a report suggested the country’s central bank would not aggressively tighten its monetary policy.

U.S. stock futures were little changed in overnight trading Wednesday after the S&P 500 finished the regular session on the brink of the 5,000 milestone. Investors will monitor fresh U.S. jobless claims data on Thursday to gauge the health of the labor market.

European markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)

 

China's consumer prices suffer biggest fall since 2009 as deflation risks stalk economy

By Qiaoyi Li and Ryan Woo  February 8, 2024 4:30 AM GMT

BEIJING, Feb 8(Reuters) - China's consumer prices fell at their steepest pace in more than 14 years in January while producer prices also dropped, ramping up pressure on policymakers to do more to revive an economy low on confidence and facing deflationary risks.

The world's second-biggest economy has been grappling with slowing prices since early last year, forcing policymakers to cut interest rates to spur growth even as many developed economies were focused on taming stubbornly high inflation.

The consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.8% in January from a year earlier, after a 0.3% drop in December, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Thursday. The CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month from a 0.1% uptick the previous month.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.5% fall year-on-year and a 0.4% gain month-on-month.

The annual CPI decline in January was the biggest since September 2009, mainly led by a sharp drop in food prices, but analysts warn the overall deflationary impulse in the economy risks becoming entrenched in consumer behaviour.

"The CPI data today shows China faces persistent deflationary pressure," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

"China needs to take actions quickly and aggressively to avoid the risk of deflationary expectation to be entrenched among consumers."

The Asian giant has struggled to regain economic momentum since the end of COVID curbs in late 2022, and nervous investors have dumped Chinese stocks amid a deepening property crisis and local government debt risks.

Global demand has also remained relatively soft, with an official survey showing activity in China's vast manufacturing sector contracting in January.

More

China's consumer prices suffer biggest fall since 2009 as deflation risks stalk economy | Reuters

Finally, Germany, once the powerhouse economy of Europe and the EU paymaster, but since Biden’s US regime blew up the Nord Stream gas pipelines from Russia, now well on its way to be the northern Italy if not Greece.

 

Exclusive: German landlord TAG warns home prices could fall 30% from peak

By John O'Donnell, Tom Sims and Matthias Inverardi February 7, 2024 3:29 PM GMT

DUESSELDORF, Feb 7 (Reuters) - German home prices could fall as much as 30% below their 2022 peak, one of the country's largest landlords told Reuters, in a more pessimistic assessment than rivals highlighting the continued threat posed to Europe's biggest economy.

TAG Immobilen co-CEO Martin Thiel painted a bleak picture for Europe's biggest residential property market, which has already seen prices tumble by around 10% in Germany's worst property crash in a generation.

"We expect further losses in value," Thiel said, adding that while he expected the fall in valuations to bottom out at 20%, TAG was taking precautions for worse.

"You have to be prepared in case it is not the 20% but 25% or 30%. The balance sheet must be able to withstand that. You simply need that cushion," Thiel said in an interview.

"The market for transactions is incredibly difficult," he said. "You hardly see any big transactions."

Germany's 670 billion euro ($722 billion) property industry is a critical pillar of its economy, contributing one in 10 jobs, nearly a fifth of output, and eclipsing the country's famous car sector, according to the ZIA industry association.

Thiel said that after writing down the value of TAG's portfolio of 85,000 German homes by 13% since the middle of 2022, he expected a total drop in value of 20% by June.

His view is markedly more downbeat than that of Germany's largest listed property group Vonovia, whose CEO Rolf Buch told Reuters he was cautiously optimistic that the worst was over.

Vonovia wrote down the value of its property by roughly 10% to June, plunging the group to a 4 billion euro loss.

More

Exclusive: German landlord TAG warns home prices could fall 30% from peak | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Average UK house price jumped by £3,785 in January, says Halifax

The lender said property values increased for the fourth month in a row.

February 07, 2024 at 8:04AM GMT

The average UK house price jumped by £3,785 month on month in January, marking the fourth month in a row of increases, according to an index.

Property values typically rose by 1.3% compared with December, Halifax said.

House prices increased by 2.5% annually – the highest annual growth since January 2023.

Kim Kinnaird, director, Halifax Mortgages, said: “This is the fourth consecutive month that house prices have risen and, as a result, the pace of annual growth is now 2.5%, the highest rate since January last year.

“The recent reduction of mortgage rates from lenders as competition picks up, alongside fading inflationary pressures and a still-resilient labour market, has contributed to increased confidence among buyers and sellers. This has resulted in a positive start to 2024’s housing market.

“However, while housing activity has increased over recent months, interest rates remain elevated compared to the historic lows seen in recent years and demand continues to exceed supply.

“For those looking to buy a first home, the average deposit raised is now £53,414 – around 19% of the purchase price. It’s not surprising that almost two-thirds of new buyers getting a foot on the ladder are now buying in joint names.

“Looking ahead, affordability challenges are likely to remain and further modest falls should not be ruled out, against a backdrop of broader uncertainty in the economic environment.”

Alice Haine, personal finance analyst at Bestinvest by Evelyn Partners, the wealth manager, said: “Interest rates have remained on pause at a 16-year high of 5.25% since August 2023 and, with inflation expected to retreat rapidly in the coming months, cuts are expected as soon as the summer.

“The improving outlook has resulted in better mortgage rates and affordability levels for first-time buyers and those looking to refinance.”

Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at estate agent Knight Frank, said: “After suffering the effects of 14 consecutive rate rises last year, house prices are getting stronger as multiple interest rate cuts are expected in 2024.

“The number of new buyers registering and offers being submitted have increased since lenders dropped their prices last month, which suggests demand and activity levels will only get stronger, leading to a modest single-digit price increase this year.”

More

Average UK house price jumped by £3,785 in January, says Halifax – The Irish News

Your Evening Briefing: Commercial Real Estate Woes Land in Europe

February 7, 2024 at 10:27 PM GMT

The troubles plaguing the US commercial property market moved to Europe this week, elevating fears of broader contagion. The latest victim was Germany’s Deutsche Pfandbriefbank, which saw its bonds slump on concern about its exposure to the sector and described the current turmoil as the “greatest real estate crisis since the financial crisis.”

The plunge in German lenders’ bonds is the latest in a series of warning signals as loans begin to sour after rising interest rates eroded the value of buildings around the world.

On Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said losses in commercial real estate will put stress on owners, but added that the problem is manageable. For offices in the US, where the return to work following the pandemic has been slower than elsewhere, the value destruction has been particularly bad. Embattled New York Community Bancorp was cut to junk by Moody’s Investors Service after flagging real estate problems while Japan’s Aozora Bank recorded its first loss in 15 years due to provisions on loans extended to US commercial properties. And some predict the full impact of the growing crisis might not be fully priced in.

More

Bloomberg Evening Briefing: Commercial Real Estate Woes Land in Europe - Bloomberg

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Moderna Scientists Warn mRNA Vaccines Carry Toxicity Risks

WEDNESDAY, FEB 07, 2024 - 02:10 AM

The technology used in Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine carries toxicity risks, scientists with the company said in a new paper.

A major challenge now is how to efficiently de-risk potential toxicities associated with mRNA technology,” the scientists wrote in the paper, which was published by Nature Reviews Drug Discovery on Jan. 23.

The Moderna and Pfizer COVID-19 shots use modified messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) technology. The mRNA is delivered by lipid nanoparticles (LNP).

The toxicity risks include “lipid nanoparticle structural components, production methods, route of administration and proteins produced from complexed mRNAs,” the authors of the paper said.

Authors of the paper include Eric Jacquinet and Dimitrios Bitounis, Moderna employees, and Maximillian Rogers, who was working at Moderna when the paper was being done.

Moderna didn’t respond to a request for comment.

The mRNA vaccines have multiple known side effects, including heart inflammation and severe allergic shock. Those may stem from hypersensitivity reactions, which can be elicited by “any LNP-mRNA component” but are most likely triggered by PEGlyated lipid nanoparticles, which is “the most potentially reactogenic component,” the scientists said.

Polyethylene glycol, or PEG, an ingredient in the Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines, is known to cause allergic reactions. Outside scientists are divided over the mechanism behind the heart inflammation, while Pfizer has posited that the LNPs are behind the issue.

The new paper drew from prior publications and other data. The authors didn’t carry out any new experiments.

Some of the papers cited included those that have found mRNA and the spike protein delivered by Moderna’s shot in various parts of human beings weeks or months after vaccination, despite health officials claiming when the vaccines were rolled out that such materials would exit the body within days.

The scientists said that Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine is “safe and effective” and hailed the development of an updated shot as “demonstrat[ing] the rapid timeline for modifications with mRNA technology in the clinic.” Due to the “transient nature of mRNA,” though, “repeat administration may be necessary,” they said.

The scientists added later that reducing risks of toxicities with mRNA-based vaccines and drugs is necessary but “complicated.” That can be accomplished through a multi-pronged approach that includes advanced testing in laboratories and adjusts preclinical, animal trials to better account for “differences in human and animal physiology.”

Moderna and other companies are currently testing a number of new mRNA products, including influenza vaccines and cancer treatments.

---- Dr. Robert Malone, who helped invent the mRNA technology, said the paper downplayed the range of risks that have been linked to the mRNA-based vaccines and may be part of a limited hangout, or a propaganda technique.

That technique, a form of misdirection, involves people offering some information to obscure or prevent the discovery of other information.

“My most generous interpretation of the overall intent of the article is that this article summarizes and represents information concerning risks and toxicities of this platform technology which Moderna wishes to have disclosed in a manner which puts the firm, its activities and the underlying platform technology in the best possible light,” Dr. Malone, who wasn’t involved with the paper, wrote in his review.

“A less generous interpretation of intent is that this article represents a subtle form of propaganda strategy commonly referred to as a limited hangout.”

Moderna Scientists Warn mRNA Vaccines Carry Toxicity Risks | ZeroHedge

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Ultra-sensitive lead detector could significantly improve water quality monitoring

Date:  February 5, 2024

Source:  University of California - San Diego

Summary:  Engineers have developed an ultra-sensitive sensor made with graphene that can detect extraordinarily low concentrations of lead ions in water. The device achieves a record limit of detection of lead down to the femtomolar range, which is one million times more sensitive than previous technologies

Engineers at the University of California San Diego have developed an ultra-sensitive sensor made with graphene that can detect extraordinarily low concentrations of lead ions in water. The device achieves a record limit of detection of lead down to the femtomolar range, which is one million times more sensitive than previous sensing technologies.

"With the extremely high sensitivity of our device, we ultimately hope to detect even the presence of one lead ion in a reasonable volume of water," said Prabhakar Bandaru, a professor in the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering at the UC San Diego Jacobs School of Engineering.

"Lead exposure is a serious health concern, and it has been indicated that a lead concentration at the level of parts per billion in drinking water could lead to pernicious outcomes, such as stunted human growth and development."

The work is described in a paper published recently in Nano Letters.

The device in this study consists of a single layer of graphene mounted on a silicon wafer.

Graphene, with its remarkable conductivity and surface-to-volume ratio, offers an ideal platform for sensing applications.

The researchers enhanced the sensing capabilities of the graphene layer by attaching a linker molecule to its surface.

This linker serves as the anchor for an ion receptor and, ultimately, the lead ions.

One of the key features of this work was making the sensor highly specific for detecting lead ions.

---- In addition to its superior sensitivity, the new sensor possesses other advantages over existing methods.

Traditional techniques for detecting lead with high accuracy and sensitivity often rely on expensive instrumentation, which limits their accessibility for widespread use.

Meanwhile, home kits, while more accessible, tend to be unreliable and exhibit a relatively poor limit of detection, typically within the micromolar range.

"The technology that we developed aims to overcome the issues of cost as well as reliability," said Bandaru.

"Our goal is for it to be eventually deployed in homes, given its relative ease of manufacture."

While the technology is currently at the proof-of-concept stage, Bandaru hopes to one day implement it in real-world settings.

Next steps include scaling up the production for commercial use, which will necessitate collaboration with industry partners.

This work was supported by the Army Research Office (W911NF-21-1-0041-(74813-MS)).

Ultra-sensitive lead detector could significantly improve water quality monitoring | ScienceDaily

By means of glasses, hotbeds, and hotwalls, very good grapes can be raised in Scotland, and very good wine too can be made of them at about thirty times the expense for which at least equally good can be brought from foreign countries. Would it be a reasonable law to prohibit the importation of all foreign wines, merely to encourage the making of claret and burgundy in Scotland?

Adam Smith, The Wealth Of Nations, 1776.