Baltic
Dry Index. 1610 +29
Brent Crude 82.84
Spot Gold 2021 US 2 Year Yield 4.64 +0.08
If economists could manage to get themselves thought of as humble, competent people on a level with dentists, that would be splendid.
John Maynard Keynes.
In the stock casinos, a mixed message. Better news from China is likely to be offset by bad news arriving from yet another Red Sea shipping attack.
With US markets closed today for President’s Day, Europe’s stock casinos are looking at lower openings.
Elsewhere, is the reality of the world outside
of the central bankster funded stock casinos starting to impact stock prices?
China
markets rise as upbeat holiday travel data lifts tourism stocks; Hong Kong
shares fall
UPDATED MON, FEB 19 2024 12:31 AM EST
Stock markets in China rose as traders returned
from a long holiday on Monday to upbeat travel data, while Hong Kong stocks
fell.
The CSI 300 added 0.5% as trading
resumed following the Lunar New Year holidays that saw consumer
spending jump higher than pre-Covid levels, according to official
data. Tourism stocks led the gains, rising 1.2%.
The
People’s Bank of China on Sunday held a key policy rate steady as
expected, as markets reassess when the U.S. Federal Reserve might start easing
its monetary policy this year.
China’s central bank said it was
holding the rate unchanged at 2.5% on 500 billion yuan ($69.51 billion) worth
of one-year medium-term lending facility.
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi,
reportedly, told U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken that the United States
must lift restrictions on Chinese firms and individuals, and attempts to
de-couple from Beijing would only hurt Washington.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell
1%, while the Hang Seng Tech index shed 2.7%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225,
which had come within a striking distance of a record high on Friday, inched
0.07% lower, while the broader Topix added 0.5%.
South Korea’s Kospi added
1.3%, while the smaller-cap Kosdaq was flat.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 closed
0.1% higher at 7,665.10.
U.S. markets were closed for the Presidents’ Day
holiday.
Wall
Street’s main indexes slid Friday after a hot inflation report
sparked fears that interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve may not arrive
until later than expected this year.
The S&P 500 fell
0.48%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.37% and
the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.82%.
Asia
markets: China stocks up, Hong Kong shares fall, U.S. markets shut (cnbc.com)
European
markets head for negative start to the new trading week
UPDATED MON, FEB 19 2024 12:26 AM EST
European
markets are set to start the new trading week on a negative note, changing
course after largely
positive sentiment last week.
In Asia-Pacific overnight, stock
markets in China rose as traders returned from the Lunar New
Year holidays on Monday to upbeat travel data, while Hong Kong stocks fell.
The
People’s Bank of China on Sunday held a key policy rate steady as
expected, as markets reassessed when the U.S. Federal Reserve might start
easing its monetary policy this year.
U.S. markets are closed Monday
for Presidents Day.
European
markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
Record US Stock Rally Is Under Threat From a World in
Turmoil
Sun, February 18, 2024 at 7:15 AM GMT
(Bloomberg) -- Investors and firms are flagging that the war in the Middle East poses a major risk for earnings as boycotts dampen sales and Red Sea shipping chaos threatens their supply chains.
Those headwinds pose a danger to the
record rally in US stocks, according to a Bloomberg analysis of hundreds of
earnings calls. By the halfway mark in the first quarter, the number of
references to the Red Sea or “geopolitics” has almost matched the total for the
previous three months.
Expectations for profits at S&P
500 companies for the next 12 months are at a record high, suggesting analysts
are pricing in a blue-sky scenario with the US economy growing more than
expected and the Federal Reserve cutting rates. Any major threat to earnings,
or signs that inflation is returning, could impact the months-long rally which
has sent the US benchmark to record highs.
Crude prices have already climbed
this year in part due to fears the Israel-Hamas war could grow into a wider
conflict. At the same time, container ships are being forced to avoid the Red
Sea and Suez Canal after attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels as part of a
campaign against Israel.
“The geopolitical backdrop is a
risk,” said Nicole Kornitzer, portfolio manager of the Buffalo International
Fund at Kornitzer Capital Management Inc. “If the pressure continues for
longer, this could weigh on corporate margins and be inflationary as costs are
passed on through price increases. This kind of scenario is not in estimates.”
From consumer goods companies, to
social media, to freight firms, Bank of America Corp.’s latest fund manager
survey also showed that investors see geopolitics as the second biggest risk to
share prices after inflation, although the two dangers are connected —
participants expect a further escalation in the Red Sea or Middle East to add
new price pressures higher oil and freight rates.
In Europe, alcoholic beverages
producer Heineken NV said macroeconomic and geopolitical developments will
remain a factor of uncertainty that could impact its business. Adidas AG said
tension in the Red Sea is leading to higher supply costs in the short term.
Tesla Inc. in January announced
production suspensions at its German plant, citing disruptions in supplies.
Medical equipment supplier ResMed Inc. said it’s seeing an impact on freight
rates and lead times. Computer networking equipment giant Cisco Systems Inc.
also said shipping rates have gone up. Chemicals company Albemarle Corp.,
tobacco firm Philip Morris International Inc. and rail services provider CSX
Corp. are among S&P 500 firms also monitoring the situation in the Red Sea.
More
Record
US Stock Rally Is Under Threat From a World in Turmoil (yahoo.com)
UK-registered cargo
ship reported under attack in Bab al-Mandab Strait, says Ambrey
February 19, 2024 2:13
AM GMT
CAIRO, Feb 18 (Reuters) - A UK-registered cargo
ship reported being under attack in the Bab al-Mandab Strait off Yemen on
Sunday, said British maritime security firm Ambrey, while UK Maritime Trade
Operations agency reported crew abandoning a ship off Yemen after an explosion.
Ambrey said on Sunday that a Belize-flagged,
UK-registered and Lebanese-operated open hatch general cargo ship had reported
being under attack in Bab al-Mandab Strait.
The ship was heading north during its journey from
Khor Fakkan in the United Arab Emirates to Varna, Bulgaria, when the attack
occurred, Ambrey said.
"The partially laden vessel briefly slowed
from 10 to six knots and deviated course, and contacted the Djiboutian Navy,
before returning to her previous course and speed," it said.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations
(UKMTO) said it had received a report of an incident 35 nautical miles south of
Yemen's Al Mukha, and that an explosion in close proximity to a vessel had
resulted in damage, the agency said in an advisory note. It did not identify
the ship.
"Military authorities report crew have
abandoned the vessel", UKMTO added in an updated advisory note early on
Monday, adding that the vessel was at anchor and all crew were safe.
Yemen's Houthi group has launched repeated drone
and missile attacks against international commercial shipping in the Red Sea
and the Bab al-Mandab Strait since mid-November, saying it is acting in
solidarity with Palestinians as Israel wages war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
The attacks have prompted several companies to halt
Red Sea journeys and opt for a longer and more expensive route around Africa,
and U.S. and British warplanes have carried out retaliatory strikes across
Yemen.
There was no immediate comment in Houthi-run media
on the incident.
UK-registered cargo ship reported under attack in Bab al-Mandab Strait, says Ambrey | Reuters
Finally, the USA’s commercial problem hits
mainstream media.
Will empty offices cause the next banking crisis? Commercial real estate 'debt bomb' of $929 billion comes due this year with HUNDREDS of banks facing insolvency runs if default rates on the loans spike
February 17, 2024
Experts are sounding alarms that the distressed US commercial real estate market could trigger a new banking crisis, if default rates on commercial mortgages rise sharply.
Some $929 billion of outstanding commercial mortgages held by lenders and investors will mature in 2024, or 20 percent of the $4.7 trillion total outstanding debt, according to recent data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Meanwhile, higher interest rates are battering commercial real estate (CRE) property values across the board, with office buildings hit particularly hard due to the enduring popularity of remote and hybrid working.
Disturbingly, about 14 percent of all CRE loans, and 44 percent of office loans, appear to be 'underwater,' with current property values that are less than the outstanding loan balances, according to a recent working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research.
'If nothing changes — if interest rates remain elevated and property values do not improve — we do view defaults at the rate of the Great Recession, and in fact even higher, as quite a possibility,' one of the co-authors, Columbia Business School professor Tomasz Piskorski, told DailyMail.com.
If default
rates on CRE loans jumped to 10 percent, the study estimates that 231 US
banks, with aggregate assets of $1 trillion, would see the market value of
their assets fall below the value of their customer deposits.
That situation could spur panicked customers to withdraw their uninsured deposits, in the same kind of rapid bank run that triggered the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last year.
'Because of the high interest rates, there are dozens to hundreds of banks that are at the brink of solvency. So this additional commercial real estate distress puts them into the group of banks that potentially are susceptible to runs by depositors,' Piskorski said in a Zoom interview this week.
More
Fed to allow
emergency bank lending program to expire on March 11
By Pete Schroeder and Michael S. Derby January 25, 2024 3:54 PM GMT
Jan 24 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said a funding
lifeline created for banks last year after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank
threatened to spark a wider financial crisis would close as scheduled in March.
The Fed also raised the interest rate on new loans from the Bank Term
Funding Program (BTFP) for the remainder of its life, effectively ending what
had become a popular and profitable arbitrage opportunity for U.S. lenders,
which analysts said should deter fresh borrowing.
More
Fed
to allow emergency bank lending program to expire on March 11 | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Expect the Fed to cut rates for first time in May:
Economist
Fri, February 16, 2024 at 9:04 PM GMT
January's inflation and consumer data evoked a rollercoaster of actions in stocks (^GSPC, ^DJI, ^IXIC) this week. Are these economic prints worrisome indicators for stagflation?
PNC Chief Economist Gus Faucher
joins Yahoo Finance Live to share his positive outlook on the greater economic
picture despite January's readings and how it ties all back to the Fed's
monetary policy.
"I don't want to read too
much into one month's worth of data. if you look at data over the past three
months, over the past six months, they point to slowing inflation, gains in
consumer spending, and a very good labor market with a very low unemployment
rate and good wage growth," Faucher explains. "And I don't think that
overall story has changed."
For more expert insight and the
latest market action, click here to
watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.
JOSH LIPTON: US consumers raised their optimism about the economy in February to cap off what was a week that offered investors a complicated picture. For more on the outlook on the economy, let's now welcome in Gus Faucher, PNC chief economist. Gus, you are just the man I want to talk to today, Gus, because I'm trying to make sense of this economic data, and I know our viewers are as well.
They're looking at it,
Gus, and they see, you know, PPI higher than expected, CPI higher than
expected. Retail sales were weak, Gus. How do you make sense of this data?
Should we be-- should we getting worried about stagflation here, Gus?
GUS FAUCHER: I don't think so. I
think that the CPI and PPI numbers came in a little hot for January, but the
trend has definitely been for a slowing. I think that we'll continue to see
housing inflation in particular slow. Slower-- weaker rents make their way into
the CPI numbers with a lag, so I'm expecting that to start to show up later
this year.
And then the consumer fundamentals
continue to look very good. The job market is good. Wage growth is solid.
Inflation is slowing, and that gives consumers more real spending power. So I
think the outlook is pretty solid for 2024. And, in fact, we've moved away from
a baseline recession forecast. Now we think the most likely outcome is a bit
softer growth in 2024 but still solid, and that will allow the Fed to cut rates
later this year.
More
Expect the Fed to cut rates for first time in May:
Economist (yahoo.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Today something a
little different but of concern.
CDC Confirms
‘Unknown’ Outbreak on Cruise Ship Has Spread
Symptoms
include vomiting and diarrhea, said the CDC, which provided no other details.
2/14/2024 Updated: 2/16/2024
An “unknown”
outbreak aboard a cruise ship is spreading, and now 154 people are sickened,
said the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in an update
this week.
So far, 25 crew
members and 129 passengers on the Carnival-owned Cunard Cruise Line’s Queen
Victoria have become ill during the trip, which is up by about 15 cases from
when the illnesses were reported earlier in February, according to the CDC. The
Queen Victoria cruise has 1,824 passengers and 967 crew members on board,
according to the agency.
It’s still not
clear what’s causing the outbreak on the cruise ship, which left Florida on
Jan. 22. Symptoms include vomiting and diarrhea, said the CDC, which provided
no other details.
Cunard
Cruise Line confirmed that guests on the Queen Victoria became sick during the
trip.
“Cunard
confirms that a number of guests had reported symptoms of gastrointestinal
illness on board Queen Victoria on voyage V405 which departed Florida on [Jan.
22] and arrived in San Francisco on [Feb. 7],” said the cruise operator in a
statement to news outlets this week. “They immediately activated their enhanced
health and safety protocols to ensure the wellbeing of all guests and crew on
board and these measures have been effective.”
According to the tracking website CruiseMapper, the Queen
Victoria is on a 55-day trip that will travel around the world from Germany to
Australia. It’s final destination date is March 4. This week, the ship reached
Honolulu, Hawaii.
The recent illnesses come about a month after nearly 100 passengers on a Celebrity Cruises vessel, the Celebrity Constellation, were sickened with norovirus when it departed in early January from Florida, said the CDC in a separate update.
In that outbreak,
the agency said that 92 passengers and eight crew members became ill, with the
main symptoms being diarrhea and vomiting.
More
CDC Confirms ‘Unknown’ Outbreak on Cruise Ship Has Spread | The Epoch Times
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the development
of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
Newly discovered material could transform batteries,
scientists say
February 15, 2024
A new material could transform
batteries, the researchers who found it say.
It could lead to batteries based on
new technology that could improve both their energy capacity and their safety,
scientist say. That in turn could have dramatic consequences for the vehicles
and other electronic devices that rely on batteries for power.
Today’s lithium ion batteries of the
kind used in everything from phones to cars rely on liquid electrolytes. Those
electrolytes are a key part of the architecture of the batteries.
But now scientists say they have
found a solid material that could do the same job of rapidly conducting lithium
ions. There are very few solid materials that are able to conduct enough to
replace liquid electrolytes.
What’s more, the material is made up
of non-toxic earth-abundant elements, meaning that it could avoid the ethical
and environmental problems that have come to be associated with some battery
technologies.
The new material was found by
researchers at the University of Liverpool, using a combination of artificial
intelligence as well as more traditional chemistry. Similar work could both
improve the new material – as well as lead to the discover of more, the
researchers say.
“This research demonstrates the
design and discovery of a material that is both new and functional. The
structure of this material changes previous understanding of what a
high-performance solid-state electrolyte looks like,” said Matt Rosseinsky,
from the University of Liverpool’s Department of Chemistry.
“Specifically, solids with many
different environments for the mobile ions can perform very well, not just the
small number of solids where there is a very narrow range of ionic
environments. This dramatically opens up the chemical space available for further
discoveries.
The work is reported in a new paper,
‘Superionic lithium transport via multiple coordination environments defined by
two anion packing’, published in the journal Science.
Newly discovered material could transform batteries, scientists
say (msn.com)
Economics is extremely useful as a form of
employment for economists.
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