Baltic Dry Index. 1347 +83 Brent Crude 84.85
Spot Gold 1754 US 2 Year Yield 4.46 +0.04
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 29/11/22 World 646,515,139
Deaths 6,637,661
“Why, sometimes
I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”
Ebenezer Squid, with apologies to Alice in Wonderland.
In the stock casinos this morning, more hopium that the Chinese Communist Party is about to change its Covid-19 lockdown policy at a press conference later today.
Since that would be admitting that the CCP had gotten the previous policy hopelessly wrong, I have my doubts that a change in policy is coming or that the CCP is about to save the month-end all important money manager bonuses.
Hong Kong stocks
jump 4% ahead of China’s Covid briefing
UPDATED TUE, NOV 29 2022 12:19 AM EST
Stocks in Hong Kong led gains in the
Asia-Pacific alongside Chinese indexes after
media reports said China’s state council will hold a press conference at 3 p.m.
Beijing time.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index jumped
4.24% in the afternoon session, with the Hang Seng Tech index rising past 6%.
In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite climbed
2.21% and the Shenzhen Component added
2.5%.
The CSI 300 index, which tracks
the largest mainland-listed stocks, climbed nearly 3% as the nation’s Covid
cases on Monday were lower than Sunday’s count, the first decline since Nov.
19.
The moves come after a negative
start to the week were investors reacted to the unrest over China’s
Covid restrictions. Major U.S.
indexes lost around 1.5% each.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was
up 0.29%. South Korea’s Kospi traded
0.69% higher. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares added 1.78%.
Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 in
Japan fell 0.53% and the Topix shed 0.66% as retail
sales data missed expectations and the nation’s unemployment rate was unchanged
from September.
Hong Kong stocks jump 4% ahead of China's Covid briefing (cnbc.com)
China’s Covid infections drop for the first time
in more than a week
BEIJING — Mainland
China reported the first decline in daily Covid infections in more than a week
on Monday.
The country said
local infections, mostly asymptomatic, totaled 38,421, down from a record high
of 40,052 reported for Sunday, according to CNBC calculations of Wind
Information data.
The last time the
daily case count fell from the prior day was on Nov. 19, the data showed.
Local infections fell in Guangdong and Chongqing,
two of the hardest-hit regions in the latest Covid wave. No new deaths were reported.
But the capital city of Beijing saw
infections rise Monday from a day earlier, as did Shanghai, albeit at a far
smaller scale. Shanghai Disneyland said it would suspend operations from
Tuesday, after briefly reopening Friday. Universal Beijing Resort remains open.
There was no indication of new
protests on Monday. Over the weekend, students and groups of people across
China held public demonstrations to protest
the country’s stringent zero-Covid policy.
Security has tightened in areas where protesters
had gathered in Beijing and Shanghai, according to social media. Some
social media reports said police were checking locals’ phones
in Shanghai for foreign apps that can’t be accessed in the mainland without a
VPN.
China’s official nightly news broadcast Monday did not mention the unrest,
but included a segment calling for unity around the current Covid measures. The
broadcast also emphasized how the government was maintaining health services
and delivery of daily necessities to people in lockdown.
The purpose of the measures is to
minimize Covid’s impact on the economy and society, claimed an op-ed Tuesday in
People’s Daily, the Chinese Communist Party’s official newspaper. The article
firmly ruled out the idea of relaxing controls.
More
China's
Covid infections drop for the first time in more than a week (cnbc.com)
Stock futures
rise after major averages slide on Covid unrest in China
UPDATED TUE, NOV 29 2022 12:22 AM
EST
U.S. stock futures were higher on Tuesday
morning after the major averages came under pressure from Covid protests in
China, and as investors anticipated more economic data and commentary from
Federal Reserve leaders this week.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
futures added 72 points, or 0.21%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed
0.35% and 0.51%, respectively.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
lost 497.57 points, or 1.45%, during the regular session Monday. The S&P
500 slid 1.54%, while the Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.58%.
Growing frustration in mainland
China over the country’s zero-Covid policy weighed on markets around the world.
On Monday, West Texas Intermediate crude futures briefly fell to their lowest
point since last December.
“There’s some real reasons to be
cautious. The market’s rallied a lot this quarter, and there’s some concerns
that things are going to slow, so I think it’s a kind of balanced risk reward,”
Trivariate Research’s Adam Parker said Monday on CNBC’s “Closing Bell:
Overtime.”
“I think there was an excuse with
maybe some China slowdown fears for people to collect a little profit that they
made in the quarter,” he added.
On the economic front, traders
will watch for the September reading of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home
Price Index that is due Tuesday before the bell. The report will give investors
insight into how higher interest rates are affecting the housing market. Home
prices in the prior month jumped
about 13% year over year.
Meanwhile, the latest reading on
consumer confidence is set to release at 10 a.m. ET. Wall Street is also
expecting the latest corporate earnings results from Hewlett Packard Enterprise Tuesday
after the bell.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is
scheduled to speak at the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at
Brookings on Wednesday. Investors will be listening for insight into the
central bank’s fight against inflation.
Stock
futures rise after major averages slide on Covid unrest in China (cnbc.com)
Finally, crypto fraud is soaring and that’s before the FTX/FTT/SBF/Democrats fraud scandal.
The FTX collapse havoc spreads.
Half a billion pounds lost to cryptocurrency fraud in three years
28
November, 2022
Almost half a billion pounds has been lost to cryptocurrency scams over the past three years, according to data from Action Fraud.
Scammers raked in £226m in 2021-22, up from £171m in 2020-21 and £71m the year before, a freedom of information request to the national crime reporting service has revealed.
The
number of reports it received about crypto fraud increased to 10,030 in
2021-22, up 16pc on the previous year.
Law
firm Pinsent Masons, which obtained the information, said despite the decline
of many cryptocurrencies, small investors were still being lured in by “get
rich quick” schemes.
The
price of Bitcoin has fallen more than 70pc since hitting record highs last
year, while the collapse of the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange
FTX has sent shockwaves through the crypto market.
Hinesh
Shah of Pinsent Masons said he was concerned crypto fraudsters were
deliberately targeting inexperienced investors.
“Whenever times are tough, fraudsters always seek to prey on
less experienced investors by promising huge returns. Given the huge sums which
some crypto investors made during the boom, scams involving cryptocurrencies
can be especially potent for smaller investors who may be desperate to make a
‘quick buck’.”
Pinsent Masons
warned of a rise in "rug pull" scams, where crypto developers abandon
a project and run away with investors' funds.
Many of these
scams are only coming to light now, the law firm said, as crypto values
collapse and investors look to recover their savings only to find they have
vanished.
More
Half a billion
pounds lost to cryptocurrency fraud in three years (msn.com)
The Bahamas has hit out at 'extremely regrettable' criticism from FTX's new CEO after the Nassau-based crypto giant collapsed
November
28, 2022
The collapse of Bahamas-based FTX has prompted the island-nation to defend its crypto laws and criticize the FTX's new CEO, John J. Ray III.
After the crypto exchange
founded by Sam Bankman-Fried entered bankruptcy earlier in November, the Bahamas
suspended FTX's license and took control of its digital assets by transferring them into a
government crypto wallet.
In a video statement on
Sunday, the Bahamas attorney general, Ryan Pinder, took aim at Ray over bankruptcy court filings relating to the country's actions against
FTX.
Pinder said it was
"extremely regrettable" that Ray had "misrepresented the timely
action" of Bahamian regulators, and accused him of filing "inaccurate
allegations."
He added
that the Bahamas securities commission "deserves the highest praise for
moving so swiftly and decisively" in its liquidation proceedings against
FTX.
----Pinder hit back at accusations that the Bahamas was
failing to properly regulate cryptocurrency amid the FTX fallout. He said:
"The world is full of countries in which there is no legislative or
regulatory authority over the crypto and digital asset business, but I must say
the Bahamas is not one of these countries."
The Caribbean nation has
established itself as a crypto hub despite having a population of just 400,000.
Bankman-Fried previously told Blockworks that FTX moved there because of "the proactive
stance taken by The Bahamas and its regulatory bodies on
cryptocurrencies."
The Bahamas is also home to
Deltec Bank, which in 2021 was reported by Bloomberg to hold $15 billion in reserves for Tether, a
stablecoin pegged to the US dollar.
Pinder also suggested that
FTX's legal strategy and "intemperate statements" could be being
driven by "the prospect of multimillion dollar legal and consultant
fees."
"In any case, we
urge prudence and accuracy in all future filings," he added.
FTX's bankruptcy has led to
calls for tighter crypto regulations from both US senators and the Bank of England.
One FTX
lawyer previously said the company had spent almost $300 million on luxury houses for senior
executives in the Bahamas, while Fox Business reported that Bankman-Fried often bought $2,500 lunches at one bistro.
How FTX ‘death
spiral’ spelled doom for BlockFi, according to bankruptcy filing
There was supposedly one man who could save crypto
— Sam Bankman-Fried. The former FTX CEO
bailed out and took over crypto firms as cryptocurrency markets withered with
Terra’s spring crash. In October, FTX won the bidding war for bankrupt crypto
firm Voyager Digital
in a highly advantageous deal.
With the collapse of FTX, the firms
which Bankman-Fried saved now find themselves in an uncertain state. Voyager
put itself back up for auction last week. Today, BlockFi filed for bankruptcy
in New Jersey, after weeks of speculation that the FTX collapse had fatally
crippled it.
The FTX “death spiral,” as BlockFi advisor Mark Renzi put it, has now
spread to another crypto entity. BlockFi’s bankruptcy had been anticipated for
some time, but in a detailed 41-page filing, Renzi walks creditors, investors,
and the court through his perspective at the helm of BlockFi.
According to Renzi, exposure to two successive
hedge fund failures, the FTX rescue, and broader market uncertainty all
conspired to force BlockFi into bankruptcy.
Renzi is keen to underscore that
from his point of view, BlockFi doesn’t “face the myriad issues apparently
facing FTX.” Renzi pointed to a $30 million settlement with the SEC and the
company’s corporate governance and risk management protocols, writing that
BlockFi is “well-positioned to move forward despite the fact that 2022 has been
a uniquely terrible year for the cryptocurrency industry.”
The “issues” that Renzi refer to
may include FTX’s well publicized lack of financial, risk, anti-money
laundering (AML), or audit systems. In a court filing, newly appointed FTX CEO John
Ray said he’d never seen “such a complete failure of corporate
controls” as in FTX.
More
How FTX 'death spiral' spelled doom for BlockFi, according to filing (cnbc.com)
“If I had a world of my own, everything would
be nonsense. Nothing would be what it is, because everything would be what it
isn't. And contrary wise, what is, it wouldn't be. And what it wouldn't be, it
would. You see?”
Sam Bankman-Fried, with apologies Alice's Adventures in Wonderland /
Through the Looking-Glass
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Globalized Supply Chain Brings More-Turbulent Food
Prices
Imports
of food and related ingredients have steadily risen in most economies, exposing
consumers to supply disruptions that drive up prices
Nov. 27, 2022 9:00 am ET
For decades, globalization has increased the variety
and reduced the cost of food. Now the pandemic, war in Ukraine and other global
disruptions have shown how that complex supply chain can also result in more
turbulent prices.
Food-price inflation hit multidecade highs this year
in the U.S. and elsewhere, outpacing overall consumer prices. While food
inflation has cooled in recent weeks, food prices globally are still 25% higher
than before Covid-19 struck in early 2020, according to the United Nations Food
Price Index.
Among
the factors pushing up prices, food-industry executives and economists say,
have been manufacturing and transport disruptions stemming from the pandemic and the impact of the war in Ukraine on energy and grain prices.
While those issues may recede, and some suppliers say they will try to source
from closer to home, analysts expect price swings to be more frequent.
Food and drink, like many manufactured goods from cars to
iPhones, often include components from around the world. American pizzas can be
topped with ham from Spain and Mexican sauce. Scotch whisky is sometimes made
with Ukrainian barley. Overall, almost a quarter of global food exports now
have a foreign component, according to data from the World Trade Organization.
“When people think of globalized trade, they don’t
think that one of the major components of globalization was the food chain,“
said Susan Wachter, a professor at the Wharton School of the University of
Pennsylvania, who studies inflation. “The increased complexity of that food
chain makes food supply extremely vulnerable to supply shocks,” she added.
Rabobank predicts food prices will stay volatile next
year, given energy shortages, supply problems for key agricultural commodities
and high fertilizer prices. U.S. food prices will rise 3% to 4% next year,
above historical rates, the Agriculture Department projects.
----In modern times, the volume and variety of food crossing borders jumped
as the world globalized. The U.S. imported about 18.3% by value of its food and
beverages in 2020, up from 13.2% in 2008, according to the Agriculture
Department. Globally, the share of wheat consumption sourced from abroad rose
to 25% in 2019 from 17% in 1995, according to the International Food Policy
Research Institute. In 2019, a country was 50% more likely to form a direct
food and agricultural trade link with another country than in 1995, according
to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization.
More
Globalized Supply
Chain Brings More-Turbulent Food Prices - WSJ
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Patience running out in China over COVID
lockdowns - and it poses major challenge to ruling Communist party
Many in China have watched the World Cup on TV and wonder why the rest of the world is getting on with life, gathering unmasked in large stadiums, while they risk being locked in their homes at short notice or having their businesses shut down and unable to trade.
Monday
28 November 2022 08:22, UK
To see people
protesting in the streets in China is incredibly rare.
To have
those protests accompanied
by shouts of "down with the CPP (Chinese Communist Party)" and
"down with President Xi" is almost unheard of.
But that was exactly
what happened in the streets of Shanghai on Saturday night, a gathering that
started with just 100 or so people grew as word spread, the videos circulated
widely on Chinese social media before the censors rushed to take them down.
The challenge for the
ruling CPP feels significant and it is not just the boldness of the chants that
will be causing alarm.
It's the fact that it
is now one of many such protests springing up.
It's the fact that
it was not in response to something local, but something that happened
thousands of miles away on the other side of the country.
And, perhaps most
importantly, it's the fact that the underlying cause of the agitation, the
zero-COVID agenda, is something being experienced by every single Chinese
citizen.
It is hard to see
exactly how this wave of anger is quashed without some sort of radical action.
The spark
for the Shanghai protest was a fire in the city of Urumqi in Xinjiang, a province on the far west side of this vast country.
Ten people,
including children, died. It's alleged a coronavirus lockdown
prevented them from leaving the building and prevented firefighters from
getting speedy access.
The province of
Xinjiang has been experiencing a particularly harsh lockdown, lasting more than
three months, with people in some places unable to leave their homes even to
buy food.
Protests erupted there
on Friday night.
This is
particularly extraordinary as the province of Xinjiang is one of the most
tightly policed and heavily surveilled places in the whole of China.
More
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
University of Manchester
graphene partnership with Khalifa University aims to tackle global challenges
28
November 2022
An ambitious
partnership between The University of Manchester and Abu Dhabi-based Khalifa
University of Science and Technology has been agreed with the aim to deliver a
funding boost to graphene innovation that will help tackle the planet’s big
challenges.
Professor
Dame Nancy Rothwell, President & Vice-Chancellor of The University of
Manchester, and Professor Sir John
O’Reilly, President, Khalifa University (pictured above) officially signed a contract between the two institutions during a
VIP visit by a Manchester delegation to the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Senior
officials from both universities were present at the signing (pictured below).
This international
partnership will further accelerate Manchester and Abu Dhabi’s world-leading
research and innovation into graphene and other 2D materials. The Research
& Innovation Center for Graphene and 2D Materials (RIC-2D), based in Khalifa University, is part of a strategic
investment programme supported by the Government of Abu Dhabi, UAE.
Growing international
partnership
This
partnership will support expediting the development of the RIC-2D at Khalifa
University as well as help building capability in graphene and 2D materials in
collaboration with Graphene@Manchester, a community that includes the
academic–led National Graphene Institute (NGI) and the commercially-focused
Graphene Engineering Innovation Centre (GEIC), a pioneering facility already
backed by the Abu Dhabi-based renewable energy company Masdar.
The
historic agreement will bring together the vision of the two universities to
tackle some of the globe’s biggest challenges, such as providing clean drinking
water for millions of people and supporting a circular ‘green economy’ in all
parts of the world.
Graphene
– originally isolated at The University of Manchester, the global ‘home of
graphene’ – has the potential to deliver transformational
technologies. The focus of the Khalifa–Manchester partnership will be
on key themes, with a priority to meet the most immediate of global challenges,
including climate change and the energy crisis. These flagship
areas are:
● Water
filtration and desalination – graphene and 2D materials are being
applied to next generation filtration technologies to significantly boost their
effectiveness and efficiency to help safeguard the world’s precious supply of
drinking water
● Construction –
graphene is helping to develop building materials that are much more
sustainable and when applied at scale can expect to slash global CO2 emissions
● Energy storage –
applications are being developed across the energy storage sector to produce
more efficient batteries, with greater capacity and higher performance, and
other energy storage systems vital to a circular ‘green economy’
● Lightweighting
of materials – the use of graphene and 2D materials to take weight out
of vehicles, as well as large structures and infrastructure, will also be a key
to building a more sustainable future.
More
Manchester graphene deal with UAE aims at global
challenges
“Chairman Powell: Would you tell me, please,
which way I ought to go from here?
The Cheshire Cat: That depends a good deal on
where you want to get to.
Chairman Powell: I don't much care where.
The Cheshire Cat: Then it doesn't much matter
which way you go.
Chairman Powell: ...So long as I get somewhere.
The Cheshire Cat: Oh, you're sure to do that, if
only you raise interest rates long enough.
Alice in Wonderland.
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