Baltic Dry Index. 1323 +33 Brent Crude 98.57
Spot Gold 1682 U S 2 Year Yield 4.66 -0.05
With climate change coming, economists predict that Canada will soon be the most powerful country in the world. Hudson’s Bay, the new Med. Shame about the Food.
Dow closes 400 points higher, but snaps four-week win
streak on rising rate fears
NOV 4 2022 5:35 PM EDT
Stocks
rallied on Friday, but finished the week lower, as investors drew conflicting
conclusions about what the latest payroll numbers mean for future Federal
Reserve rate hikes.
The
Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 401.97 points, or 1.26%, to close at
32,403.22. The S&P 500 advanced 1.36% to settle at 3,770.55, and the Nasdaq
Composite rose 1.28% to finish at 10,475.25.
All
the major averages capped off the week with losses. The Dow shed 1.4%, ending
four weeks of gains. The S&P and Nasdaq fell 3.35% and 5.65%, respectively,
to break two-week winning streaks.
October’s
nonfarm payrolls report on Friday left investors divided, fueling some
concern that the Fed will persist with its hiking campaign since the labor
market added 261,000 jobs. Others interpreted the findings as a sign that the
labor market is beginning to cool — albeit at a slow pace — since the
unemployment rate rose to 3.7%.
“You
see kind of a tale of two cities today,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market
strategist at Ameriprise Financial. “I don’t think the market quite knows
how to gauge this employment number versus what the Fed signaled on Wednesday.”
Investors
in recent days have struggled to decipher comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell
regarding whether a tightening pivot may come as the central bank fights to
tame rising inflation and a strong economy. Focus also shifted toward next
week’s consumer price index report. A drop in inflation could signal rate hikes
are doing their job and fuel a potential shift.
In
other news, hopes of a reopening in China pushed shares of U.S.-listed China
stocks higher Friday, although the government hasn’t formally announced a
pivot. Pinduoduo, JD.com and Alibaba shares surged.
Corporate
earnings season also continued, with mobile payment company Block surging
11% after beating expectations. Carvana shared dropped
38% as it posted a wider-than-expected loss, while Twilio
and Atlassian both plummeted on disappointing guidance.
Along
with Thursday’s CPI report, investors are looking ahead to next week’s midterm
elections.
Live updates: Dow
closes roughly 400 points higher, but snaps four-week win streak (cnbc.com)
Carvana stock posts worst day ever as outlook darkens
for used vehicle market
PUBLISHED FRI, NOV 4 2022 2:04 PM
EDT UPDATED FRI, NOV 4 2022 4:09 PM EDT
Shares of Carvana posted
their worst day on record Friday after the company missed Wall Street’s top-
and bottom-line expectations for the third
quarter as the outlook for used cars falls from record demand, pricing
and profits during the coronavirus pandemic.
The stock cratered 39% to end the day at $8.76 a share — slightly higher
than its worst-ever closing price of $8.72 a share from May 2017. Shares of the
online used car retailer have plummeted by 96% this year, after hitting an
all-time intraday high of $376.83 per share on Aug. 10, 2021
The stock’s all-time low of $8.14 a share occurred less than a week after it
started trading publicly on April 28, 2017. Carvana’s previous worst day of
trading was a 26.4% decline on March 18, 2020.
Morgan Stanley on Friday pulled its rating and price target on Carvana.
Analyst Adam Jonas cited deterioration in the used car market and a volatile
funding environment for the change.
“While the company is continuing to pursue cost cutting actions, we believe
a deterioration in the used car market combined with a volatile interest
rate/funding environment (bonds trading at 20% yield) add material risk to the
outlook, contributing to a wide range of outcomes (positive and negative),” he
wrote in a note to investors Friday.
Pricing and profits of used vehicles have been significantly elevated as
consumers who couldn’t find or afford to purchase a new vehicle opted for
a pre-owned
car or truck. Inventories of new vehicles have been significantly
depleted during the coronavirus pandemic largely due to supply chain problems,
including an ongoing global shortage of semiconductor chips.
But rising interest rates, inflation and recessionary fears have led to less
willingness by consumers to pay the record prices, leading to declines for
Carvana and other used vehicle companies such as CarMax.
Large franchised new and used vehicle dealers such as Lithia Motors and
AutoNation warned
of softening in the used vehicle market when recently reporting their
third-quarter results.
Twitter cut more than 950 California employees after
Elon Musk took over, WARN notice shows
PUBLISHED FRI, NOV 4 2022 10:08
PM EDT
After Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk took ownership
of Twitter last week, the social networking giant embarked on a steep reduction
in its workforce. The cuts affected a total of 983 employees in California, its
home state, according to three letters of notice that the company sent to
regional authorities, which were obtained by CNBC.
The company’s new owner, CEO and sole director
Musk, wrote in a tweet on Friday afternoon, “Regarding Twitter’s reduction in
force, unfortunately there is no choice when the company is losing over
$4M/day. Everyone exited was offered 3 months of severance, which is 50% more
than legally required.”
Twitter’s reduction in force extended beyond
California, and CNBC could not immediately confirm whether Musk’s description
is accurate. A loss of $4 million per day at the company would represent an
annual loss around $1.5 billion.
The federal Worker Adjustment and Retraining
Notification (WARN) Act requires employers to provide advance notice, generally
within 60 days, of mass layoffs or plant closings in California.
According to the letters from Twitter, shared by
the California Employment Development Department, Twitter notified affected
employees on Nov. 4. Many of those workers described losing access to email,
and other internal systems at Twitter, overnight on Nov. 3 in public posts on
social media, including on Twitter itself.
This kind of arrangement may serve as “payment in
lieu of notice,” in California depending on specific terms of employment. Permanent
terminations are expected to begin Jan. 2023, according to the WARN notices.
In three different California WARN notice letters,
signed by the Twitter Human Resources Department but no individual executives,
the company wrote: “Affected employees will be paid all wages and other
benefits to which they are entitled through their date of termination.”
More
London property market sees demand for homes almost halved
since disastrous mini-Budget
4
November, 2022
Demand for homes in London has almost halved
since the disastrous mini-Budget as thousands of panicked buyers scrap plans to purchase
properties.
Latest data from property portal Zoopla
shows a 45 per cent fall in the number of people making direct enquiries with
estate agents, seen as an accurate measure of activity in the market. The fall
is far bigger than the 37 per cent decline for the UK as a whole and shows how
the London market — where prices are at all-time highs and by far the most
expensive in Britain — is most vulnerable to the impact of mortgage rate increases.
Fixed mortgage rates have soared since the September 23 fiscal statement from Kwasi
Kwarteng sent the gilts market into a near death spiral. Data from analysts
Moneyfacts show the average interest rate on a two-year fixed mortgage today
standing at 6.45 per cent, while the average five year rate is 6.28 per cent.
Only a year ago some deals
were priced at less than one per cent.
Yesterday’s 0.75 per cent hike in the Bank of England rate will also immediately
add around £115 to the monthly cost of a typical London mortgage.
Market commentators said they
are seeing the number of price reductions increase as conditions swing from a
sellers to a buyers market.
Richard Donnell, executive director of research at Zoopla, said: “Our
data shows asking price reductions are higher in outer London areas and the
commuter belt where house price growth has been strongest across London over
the pandemic.”
Meanwhile brokers and agents said they foresaw a big slump in market
activity over the winter which is likely to feed through to a fall in prices.
More
London property
market sees demand for homes almost halved since disastrous mini-Budget
(msn.com)
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
Markets need to ‘re-anchor their thinking’: Bank of
England chief economist hints that traders have it wrong
PUBLISHED FRI, NOV 4 2022 4:57 AM
EDT UPDATED FRI, NOV 4 2022 5:50 AM EDT
LONDON — The Bank
of England remains committed to its
“key goal” of bringing down inflation, but hopes markets will “re-anchor” their
interest rate expectations, Chief Economist Huw Pill told CNBC on Friday.
The central bank on Thursday raised interest rates by 75 basis points, its largest single hike since 1989, and warned of a prolonged recession while
also looking to temper market expectations for further aggressive monetary
policy tightening.
The Bank of England has a 2% inflation target, but
price rises hit a 40-year high of 10.1% in September and are expected to peak in the fourth quarter.
“We need both to be raising [the] bank rate but
also to be taking actions to shrink the QE [quantitative easing] portfolio, to
tighten policy in order to achieve our objective,” Pill said.
“And the fact that there have been these
disturbances in markets, which have had their own needs to be addressed, that
hasn’t deterred us or deflected us from this medium-term key goal of what the
Monetary Policy Committee is trying to do.”
Pill suggested that recent volatility in the U.K.
economy, such as the bond and currency market panic that greeted former Prime Minister Liz Truss’ fiscal
policy announcements in late September, had distorted market expectations for
the Bank’s future interest rate hiking trajectory.
“We don’t think interest rates would need to rise
as high as the market has been pricing, precisely because that would induce a
slowdown in the economy that is bigger than is required to get these
inflationary dynamics under control,” Pill added.
The Bank expects an economic recession that began
in the second half of 2022 to now last until mid-2024, which would be the
longest period of GDP contraction since records began.
“What we are seeking to do, we’re always seeking
to do this, is to find that balance that gets us back to our 2% inflation
target without generating unnecessary and costly problems in the real side of
the economy,” Pill said.
“And so it’s creating that balance, signaling that
balance, that was really our key message yesterday.”
The Bank issued uncharacteristically direct
guidance to markets on Thursday, and Pill said the period of political and
economic disturbance in recent months meant the Monetary Policy Committee was
trying to “re-anchor [its] own thinking in the more fundamental drivers” of
inflation.
More
BOE chief economist Pill hints that traders' rate hike expectations are wrong (cnbc.com)
Holiday spending expected to grow
despite inflation pressure
NOV. 3, 2022 / 6:58 PM
Nov. 3 (UPI) -- Rising
inflation is not expected to have a major impact on holiday retail spending in
the United States this season, according to a National Retail Federation
forecast released Thursday.
The NRF report forecasts holiday
retail sales in both
November and December to grow between 6% and 8% over last year. That would put
spending at between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.
Holiday sales grew 13.5% last year during the same period
over the previous year, totalling $889.3 billion.
Over the past 10 years, sales have grown by an average of
4.9% annually.
This comes as the price of many consumer goods, including
food, continues to rise. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, rose by 0.5%
over August and 5.1% from a
year ago. The core PCE excludes volatile food and fuel.
"While consumers are feeling the pressure of
inflation and higher prices, and while there is continued stratification with
consumer spending and behavior among households at different income levels,
consumers remain resilient and continue to engage in commerce," NRF
President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a statement.
"In the face of these challenges, many households
will supplement spending with savings and credit to provide a cushion and
result in a positive holiday season."
Online
and other non in-store sales are expected to see between 10% and 12% growth to between
$262.8 billion and $267.6 billion, up from $238.9 billion last year, according
to the NRF forecast.
"The
holiday shopping season kicked off earlier this year - a growing trend in
recent years - as shoppers are concerned about inflation and availability of
products," NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a statement.
"Retailers
are responding to that demand, as we saw several major scheduled buying events
in October. While this may result in some sales being pulled forward, we expect
to see continued deals and promotions throughout the remaining months."
Retailers are
expected to hire between 450,000 and 600,000 seasonal workers to deal with the
temporary demand. That figure is lower than the 669,800 seasonal hires in 2021.
Holiday spending expected to grow despite inflation pressure - UPI.com
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
COVID-19 patient infected for 411 days finally cured,
say researchers
A
Covid patient who had the virus for 411 days has now finally been cleared of
infection.
01:30, Fri, Nov 4, 2022 | UPDATED: 01:30, Fri, Nov 4, 2022
Doctors have reported that a patient
who had COVID-19 for 411 days is finally free from the virus due to a cocktail
of drugs. According to experts from Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust,
London, and King's College London the man, now 59, was unable to
get rid of an early variant of the virus.
The man had a weakened immune system after having a kidney
transplant which made him more at danger of death and serious illness from the
virus.
He is thought to be one of the longest living patients with a persistent
Covid infection.
Another patient who was treated by the same team tested positive for
Covid for 505 days but subsequently died.
In the most recent case doctors noticed the man's ongoing infection by
analysing the genetics of the strain of the virus he was carrying.
He was then given a mixture of neutralising antibodies (Regeneron) which
are known to work against early coronavirus variants.
This finally allowed his body to get rid of the virus.
According to the research published in the journal Clinical Infectious
Diseases the man originally tested positive in December 2020.
Although his symptoms disappeared he continued to test positive
spasmodically until January 2022.
However, medics have warned that the emergence of new Covid variants has
meant that neutralising antibody treatments are now largely ineffective.
Dr Luke Snell, from Guy's & St Thomas' said that the new variants
had made protecting vulnerable people more challenging and that efforts were
ongoing to find ways to protect them.
He said: "Some new variants of the virus are resistant to all the
antibody treatments available in the UK and Europe.
"Some people with weakened immune systems are still at risk of
severe illness and becoming persistently infected.
"We are still working to understand the best way to protect and
treat them."
Patients who have weakened immune system have trouble recovering,
meaning the virus stays in their body for longer
This can give the virus time to mutate inside their body, potentially
leading to the development of a a new variant.
Some experts believe this is what caused the super-mutated Omicron
variant, which swept the world in late 2021.
COVID-19 patient
infected for 411 days finally cured, say researchers | UK | News |
Express.co.uk
World
Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
The Spectator
Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
This weekend’s music diversion. Albinoni again,
the oboe King. Approx. 10 minutes.
Tomaso
Albinoni - Concerto for two oboes in C major, op. 9, No. 9 - The King's Consort
Tomaso Albinoni - Concerto for two oboes in C major, op. 9, No. 9 - The King's Consort - YouTube
This
weekend’s chess update. Approx. 14 minutes.
This
Should Not Be Possible
This Should Not Be Possible - YouTube
This
week’s maths update. Approx. 15 minutes.
e
to the pi i for dummies
e to the pi i for dummies - YouTube
A
mathematician, an accountant and an economist apply for the same job.
The interviewer calls in the mathematician and asks "What does two plus
two equal?" The mathematician replies "Four." The interviewer
asks "Four, exactly?" The mathematician looks at the interviewer
incredulously and says "Yes, four,
exactly."
Then the interviewer calls in the accountant and
asks the same question "What does two plus two equal?" The accountant
says "On average, four - give or take ten percent, but on average,
four."
Then the interviewer calls in the economist and
poses the same question "What does two plus two equal?" The economist
gets up, locks the door, closes the shade, sits down next to the interviewer
and says "What do you want it to equal?
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