Baltic Dry Index. 1184 +35 Brent Crude 84.94
Spot Gold 1754 US 2 Year Yield 4.46 -0.01
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 24/11/22 World 644,495,300
Deaths 6,631,233
Some hae meat
and canna eat
And some wad eat that want it:
But we hae meat and we can eat,
And sae the Lord be thankit.
Robert Burns. Kirkcudbright Grace.
To all celebrating Thanksgiving in the USA today, a very happy, safe and thankful day for all our many Gog given blessings.
In the stock casinos, a false dawn. A great mis-reading of reality.
While the pace of interest rate hikes may start slowing, more interest rate hikes are still coming. Nothing good for most stocks comes from higher interest rate hikes.
Inflation may be slowing but is still rising nearly everywhere. Food price inflation looks to be with us through all of 2023.
In energy inflation, the G-7 is about to start playing Russian roulette, pardon the pun.
In
China, the Great Covid-19 eradication policy seems to have failed. How China
reacts will affect the global economy for better or worse, but most likely for
worse.
Stocks close
higher for a second day as Fed minutes signal smaller rate hikes ahead
UPDATED WED, NOV 23 2022 5:08 PM EST
U.S. stocks
closed higher Wednesday in a choppy session as meeting minutes from the Federal
Reserve showed that the central bank is looking to hand out smaller rate hikes
in the coming months as inflation cools off.
The Dow Jones
Industrial Average rose 95.96 points, or 0.28%, to 34,194.06. The S&P 500
gained 0.59% to close at 4,027.26, and the Nasdaq Composite increased 0.99% to
11,285.32.
Shares of Nordstrom fell
4.24% after the department store chain reaffirmed its forecast.
However, Nordstrom beat profit and sales expectations in its latest results,
according to consensus expectations on Refinitiv. Tesla rose
7.82% after Citi upgraded shares to neutral from sell. Deere surged
5.03% on an earnings beat.
Minutes
from the Fed’s November meeting signaled that the central bank
is seeing progress in its fight against high inflation and is looking to slow
the pace of rate hikes, meaning smaller ones through the end of this year and
into 2023.
“A substantial
majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would
likely soon be appropriate,” the minutes stated. “The uncertain lags and
magnitudes associated with the effects of monetary policy actions on economic
activity and inflation were among the reasons cited regarding why such an
assessment was important.”
Earlier in
November, the central bank approved
a fourth consecutive 0.75 percentage point hike that brought
rates to their highest level since 2008. Economists largely expect a 0.5
percentage point increase in December.
“What it really
shows is you’ve got a market that’s jittery about one thing and one thing only,
and that’s the Federal Reserve and what their thoughts are on monetary policy,”
said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial. Any news that
could shift the narrative around rate hikes going forward is important to
markets, which are also seeing thin trading volume due to the holiday-shortened
week.
Jobless claims data
came in higher than expected at 240,000 for the week ending
Nov. 19, where economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected 225,000. The result
signals that the labor market may be weakening. At the same time, however,
durable goods orders for October were stronger than anticipated, coming in at
1%, more than the 0.5% expected.
Markets will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and will close early on Friday.
Stocks
close higher for a second day as Fed minutes signal smaller rate hikes ahead
(cnbc.com)
Bank of Korea
opts for smaller hike; Asia markets rise after Fed signals slowing ‘soon’
UPDATED THU, NOV 24 2022 12:04 AM
EST
Markets in
the Asia-Pacific traded higher as the U.S. Federal Reserve said they expect to
switch to smaller rate hikes “soon,” according to minutes released
on Wednesday.
The Bank of Korea raised its
benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points hike to 3.25%. The Kospi rose 0.54%
and the Korean won slightly strengthened against the U.S. dollar to 1,332.49.
The S&P/ASX 200 in
Australia rose 0.26%. The Nikkei 225 rose
1% and the Topix also rose 1.3%.
In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite fell
0.11% while the Shenzhen
Component traded marginally lower. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose
0.52%.
Overnight in the U.S., stocks
closed higher for a second day on hopes the central bank is seeing progress in
its tight to tackle high inflation. Markets stateside are closed on Thursday
for the Thanksgiving holiday and will close early on Friday.
Asia-Pacific
markets: Fed minutes, Bank of Korea decision, Sri Lanka (cnbc.com)
China may have
‘passed the point of no return’ as Covid infections soar
BEIJING — Surging
Covid infections across mainland China make it harder for the government to
achieve zero-Covid without reverting to a harsh lockdown, Macquarie’s Chief
China Economist Larry Hu said.
In the last few days,
the daily case count has climbed to around or more than 28,000 — near levels
seen in April during a stringent lockdown in Shanghai, according to CNBC
calculations of Wind Information data. The figures showed the last time
mainland China saw only a handful of daily infections was in June, shortly
after Shanghai eased its restrictions.
The latest Covid wave
has hit the southern city of Guangzhou, the capital city of Beijing and many
central parts of China — prompting local officials to tighten restrictions on
business and social activity this month.
“China might have already passed the point of no
return, as it’s unlikely to achieve zero Covid again without another
Shanghai-style hard lockdown,” Hu said in a report Tuesday. “What policymakers
could do now is to slow the spread of virus, i.e. flatten the curve, by
tightening the Covid controls for the time being.”
Hu pointed to slight changes this
month in government
policy and propaganda as signs authorities are preparing for
reopening in the next six to nine months. But he noted that “the road to
reopening is set to involve lots of back-and-forth.”
Markets have speculated for weeks
about the timing of China’s departure from its stringent zero-Covid policy. The
controls have weighed on the economy, which barely eked out growth while
Shanghai was locked down and has posted growth of only 3% during the first
three quarters of the year.
In GDP terms, nearly
20% of China’s economy was negatively affected by Covid controls as of Monday,
close to the high of 21.2% recorded in mid-April during Shanghai’s lockdown,
Nomura’s Chief China Economist Ting Lu said, citing the firm’s model.
“Beijing has recently
shown early signs of willingness to reopen, and it has rolled out some
fine-tuning measures, but the reopening may be a prolonged process with
discomfort,” Lu said in a separate report this week.
He said Vietnam’s
unwinding of its Covid restrictions since fall last year could shed light on
the path forward for China. He noted how the Southeast Asian country saw “no
immediate surge in infections after the pivot,” while its GDP rebounded.
Local authorities in
China have faced the difficult task of trying to make Covid measures more
targeted, while controlling infections.
As of Monday, about
412 million people were affected by lockdown measures in mainland China,
according to Nomura estimates. That’s up from 340 million the prior week, the
report said.
The Nomura analysts noted that many lockdowns or
controls are implemented without public announcement. “We believe [the
southwestern municipality of] Chongqing is currently experiencing the most
severe local lockdown in China, based on our observation of numerous mobility
metrics,” the report said.
Covid controls in Beijing alone
have tightened since Tuesday.
Authorities announced requirements
for more frequent virus testing, and ordered more restaurants to suspend
in-store dining. More shopping malls have closed, as have large parks. Various
apartment compounds have been locked down.
State
media said Tuesday the city’s tech-focused Zhongguancun Forum that
was scheduled to kick off this week will be postponed to next year. The
conference had already been delayed from September.
More
China
may have 'passed the point of no return' as Covid infections soar (cnbc.com)
Finally,
a worrying start to ending food price inflation next year.
Column:
Argentine crops on alert as planting pace, vegetation among worst in decades
November
22, 2022 9:11 AM GMT
NAPERVILLE, Ill.,
Nov 21 (Reuters) - Argentina soybean and corn planting is off to an unusually
slow start as farmers there face a third consecutive growing season featuring a
drought-supportive La Nina.
Soybeans were
only 17% planted in the top soy product exporter as of last Thursday versus
last year’s relatively normal 31%. Corn at 32% complete was down sharply from
48% a year ago, and the sowing paces for both crops are the slowest in at least
two decades.
Excessively dry
conditions can be blamed for the delays, though some showers over the last
several days may have allowed for additional fieldwork. Forecasts show chances
for more rain showers next week, but very hot temperatures late this week into
next may zap soils of recently acquired moisture.
Drought has
already slashed Argentina’s wheat crop by nearly 40% from last year under La
Nina, which occurs when surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are
cooler than normal. The cycle can cause extended dry conditions for the
country’s soybeans and corn, often leading to lower crop yields.
Forecasts suggest
La Nina may fade into a neutral phase midway through Argentina’s growing
season, but it is too early to say with certainty. Current trade wind and ocean
temperatures, including those in the Indian Ocean, could support further
strengthening of La Nina in the coming weeks.
But that should not necessarily heighten concerns since crop
impacts are not perfectly correlated with La Nina strength. Argentina’s very
worst corn and soybean yields (including in 2009 and 2018) occurred during
moderately strong La Ninas, not the strongest ones. The last two seasons’
episodes were of moderate strength.
The Vegetation
Health Index (VHI), a U.S. government product, shows most of Argentina’s grain
belt classified well into the stressed zone. The same product shows drought
coverage in key provinces such as Buenos Aires, Cordoba and Santa Fe is at,
near or has recently reached the highest levels in at least a decade.
Argentina’s VHI
has not looked this bad for late November since 2008 and 2009, both years with
extensive drought. Rain during the 2008-09 growing season was less than
two-thirds of normal, resulting in terrible crop yields, particularly for
soybeans. It was also a moderate La Nina year.
More
Column: Argentine
crops on alert as planting pace, vegetation among worst in decades | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Today,
Mish, one of the best covers the recession signalling US yield curve and more.
The 2-10 Yield Curve Inversion
Recession Signal is the Strongest in Over 40 Years
The recession bells keep
ringing louder and louder.
November
22, 2022
- There was no 30-year long bond issuance in the
yellow highlighted interval.
- The 10-year to 3-month inversion is 64 basis
points, the deepest since January of 2001.
- The 30-year to 3-month inversion is 57 basis
points, the deepest since November of 2000.
- The 10-year to 2-year inversion is 71 basis
points, the steepest since October 1981 (see chart below).
10-Year Minus
2-Year Treasury Yield
Never before have
we seen such strong inversions except right before or in recessions.
It will not be
different this time. A recession is on the way, assuming it's not already
started.
On November 18, I
commented Existing Home Sales Decline 9th Month, Down Another 5.9
Percent
Existing Home Sales
Crash
- Existing home sales are down 28.4%
from one year ago.
- Existing home sales are down 31.7%
since January.
That's a crash. And never
have we seen such declines other than in recessions.
California Faces a
$25 Billion Budget Problem With Ongoing Deficits
Please note California is
spending like the tech boom would last forever. Ahead of Recession, California Faces a $25 Billion Budget
Problem With Ongoing Deficits
Governor Newsom is
unofficially running for president in 2024. It will be official the day
president Joe Biden announces he will not run for reelection.
Had Democrats retained the
House, free money bailouts to California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, etc.,
would have been massive.
Huge Layoffs
Including Thousands at Amazon and FedEx in Peak Shipping Season
Amazon, Facebook,
Redfin, FedEx, Stripe, Twitter and tech companies in general are all laying off
workers.
Not to worry, Biden
says there is no recession and the economy is strong. Not only is it different
this time, it's very different this time.
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Cardiologists Come to the Same
Conclusion Regarding COVID Jab Side Effects
John Leake Dr. Peter A. McCullough Nov 20 2022
“The Covid mRNA vaccine has
likely played a significant role or been a primary cause of unexpected cardiac
arrests, heart attacks, strokes, cardiac arrhythmias, and heart failure since
2021…”
Until the
British cardiologist, Dr. Aseem Malhotra, expressed grave concern about the
safety of Covid mRNA vaccines, he was one of the most celebrated doctors in
Britain. In 2016 he was named in the Sunday Times Debrett’s list as one of the
most influential people in science and medicine in the UK in a list that
included Professor Stephen Hawking. His total Altmetric score (measure of
impact and reach) of his medical journal publications since 2013 is over 10,000
making it one of the highest in the World for a clinical doctor during this
period.
In the
early days of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Britain, he advocated the
injections for the general public. However, in July of 2021, he experienced a
terrible personal loss that caused him to reevaluate the shots—namely, the
sudden and unexpected death of his 73-year-old father. His father’s death made
no sense to him because he
knew from his own examination that his father’s general
and cardiac health were excellent. As he put it in a recent interview:
His postmortem findings really shocked me. There were two severe blockages in his coronary arteries, which didn’t really make any sense with everything I know, both as a cardiologist—someone who has expertise in this particular area—but also intimately knowing my dad’s lifestyle and his health. Not long after that, data started to emerge that suggested a possible link between the mRNA vaccine and increased risk of heart attacks from a mechanism of increasing inflammation around the coronary arteries. But on top of that, I was contacted by a whistleblower at a very prestigious university in the UK, a cardiologist himself, who explained to me that there was a similar research finding in his department, and that those researchers had decided to essentially cover that up because they were worried about losing funding from the pharmaceutical industry. But it doesn’t stop there. I then started looking at data in the UK to see if there had been any increase in cardiac arrest. My dad suffered a cardiac arrest and sudden cardiac death at home. Had there been any change in the UK since the vaccine rollout? And again those findings were very clear. There’s been an extra 14,000 out of hospital cardiac arrests in 2021 vs 2020.
The more Dr. Malhotra looked into it, the more he felt the same concern about the safety of the mRNA vaccines that Dr. Peter McCullough had felt since the spring of 2021. The alarming incidence of sudden, unexpected deaths during the latter half of 2021 and the first eight months of 2022—especially among the young and fit—strengthened his grave concern and suspicion.
In September of 2022,—after a thorough investigation of the growing volume of data—he came to his conclusion:
The Covid mRNA vaccine has likely played a significant role or been a primary cause of unexpected cardiac arrests, heart attacks, strokes, cardiac arrhythmias, and heart failure since 2021 until proven otherwise.
His
conclusion, including his precise verbal formulation of it, was identical to
the conclusion drawn by Dr. Peter McCullough. Though the two doctors ultimately
established contact to compare notes, they reached their conclusions based on
their own, independent inquiries, before they
spoke with each other.
More
Cardiologists Come
to the Same Conclusion Regarding COVID Jab Side Effects (theepochtimes.com)
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
No technology update today. Today more on that FTX/Fund the Democrats
fraud.
Approx. 9 minutes.
CME Group CEO Terry Duffy
reacts to FTX collapse, called Sam Bankman-Fried an 'absolute fraud'
For
those with the time FTX’s excruciating American advertising. Approx. 28
minutes.
Crypto - FTX Collapse, 11 Celebrities Face
Damages Claim in Class-Action Lawsuit as Crypto Crashes
"It is never difficult to distinguish between a Scotsman
with a grievance and ray of sunshine."
P. G. Wodehouse.
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