Baltic Dry Index. 1324 +82 Brent Crude 81.11
Spot Gold 1750 US 2 Year Yield 4.42 -0.04
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 28/11/22 World 646,197,721
Deaths 6,636,381
“Let China Sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world”
Napoleon Bonaparte.
Will/has China’s Covid-19 cases surge, lockdowns and the rising protests the lockdowns generate, tip the global economy into recession in 2022 rather than 2023?
Statistically that’s probably not possible, but the social unrest in China if not contained soon will likely sink any chance for a “Santa Claus rally” end to a dismal, inflation ruined, tech and crypto routed 2022.
Both the crude oil market and the inverted US Treasury yield curve are now signalling recession directly ahead, although I suspect that the UK and Germany, plus a few other EU countries are already in recession.
A
long difficult winter seems to lie ahead.
Hong Kong stocks
lead losses in Asia on China unrest, oil at lowest in 2022
UPDATED MON, NOV 28 2022 12:11 AM
EST
Hong Kong stocks led losses in a negative
Asia-Pacific session on Monday amid unrest
in China over its continued zero-Covid policy. Oil futures
hovered around new 2022 lows as demand concerns from the world’s second-largest
consumer of oil weighed on prices.
The Hang Seng index in
Hong Kong fell 1.98%, paring some of the losses after shedding 4% at the open.
The Hang Seng Tech index fell 2.28%. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite fell
1.03% and the Shenzhen
Component also fell 1%.
The offshore yuan weakened
sharply against the dollar after ending last week around 7.20 per dollar.
Futures of West Texas
Intermediate crude,
the U.S. benchmark for oil, dipped around 3% to the lowest levels since Dec.
2021.
The People’s Bank of China over the weekend
announced to cut
the reserve requirement ratio for banks by 25 basis points to 7.8% and inject
around 500 billion yuan in long-term liquidity. The National
Bureau of Statistics said industrial profits fell 3% for the first 10 months of
the year on an annualized basis.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell
0.38% as retail sales slipped 0.2% in October from
the month before. The Nikkei 225 shed
0.5%, and the Topix lost 0.69%. The Kospi in
South Korea declined 0.9%.
Hong
Kong stocks lead losses in Asia on China unrest, oil at lowest in 2022
(cnbc.com)
Stock futures
trade lower on China Covid concerns after a winning holiday week
UPDATED MON, NOV 28 2022 12:35 AM
EST
Stock futures fell early Monday as social
unrest from China’s prolonged Covid restrictions weighed on
markets, sending oil prices lower — after
Wall Street notched gains during
the Thanksgiving holiday-shortened week.
Futures tied to
the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 178 points, or 0.52%. S&P 500 futures
were 0.67% lower and Nasdaq 100 futures shed 0.85%.
Over the weekend,
demonstrations broke out in mainland China as people vented their frustrations
with Beijing’s zero-Covid policy. Local governments tightened Covid controls as
cases surged, even though earlier this month Beijing adjusted some policies
that suggested the world’s second biggest economy was on its way to reopening.
The developments weighed
on sentiment in Asia trade, with oil futures hovering around new
2022 lows around demand concerns.
The moves come
after all three major U.S. indices ended last week higher, even with the
shortened trading time due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The Dow rose 1.78%, and
the S&P 500 increased 1.53% during the short week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is
lagging the other two indexes but is still up 0.72% in the same timeframe.
Stocks were
lifted during the week by comments from Federal Reserve officials signaling
that the central bank would step down its aggressive rate hike path as
inflation cools. Minutes from the Fed’s November meeting confirmed the likely
shift in policy.
“A substantial
majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would
likely soon be appropriate,” the minutes stated.
In the last week
of November, investors will be watching more earnings reports and a slew of
economic releases that will give further information on the state of the
consumer and the U.S. economy. Intuit, Salesforce and Five Below are scheduled to
report earnings. Personal consumption data and the labor report for November
will also be released this week.
Both U.S. crude
futures and Brent crude futures shed more than 2% each in Asia’s morning trade
as fears on demand from China faltering came into focus.
West Texas Intermediate futures fell
as low as $73.86 per barrel, the lowest levels since Dec. 2021, while Brent
crude futures slipped
to $81.16 per barrel at the session’s lows so far.
WTI was last down 2.58% at $74.31 per barrel,
while Brent crude last traded 2.37% lower at $81.65 per barrel.
Stock
futures trade lower on China Covid concerns after a winning holiday week
(cnbc.com)
China COVID cases hit fresh record high after weekend
of protests
Mon, November 28, 2022 at 1:31 AM
By Martin Quin Pollard
BEIJING (Reuters) - China posted
another record high COVID-19 infections on Monday, after an extraordinary
weekend of protests across the country over restrictive coronavirus curbs, in
scenes unprecedented since President Xi Jinping assumed power a decade ago.
In Shanghai, demonstrators and police
clashed on Sunday, with police taking away a busload of protesters, with the
BBC saying that police assaulted and detained one of its journalists covering
the events before releasing him after several hours.
Stocks and oil slid sharply on Monday
as the rare protests raised worries about the management of China's zero-COVID
policy and its impact on the world's second-largest economy, while Chinese
censors scrambled to remove related images and posts.
During the weekend, protesters in
cities including Wuhan and Lanzhou overturned COVID testing facilities, while
students gathered on campuses across China in actions that were sparked by
anger over an apartment fire late last week in the far western city of Urumqi
that killed 10 people.
The deadly fire fuelled speculation
that COVID curbs in the city, parts of which had been under lockdown for 100
days, had hindered rescue and escape, which city officials denied. Crowds in
Urumqi took to the street on Friday evening, chanting "End the
lockdown!", according to unverified videos on social media.
In Beijing, large crowds were
gathered past midnight on Sunday along the capital's 3rd Ring Road during
peaceful but often impassioned scenes.
In the early hours of Monday, one
group chanted “we don’t want COVID tests, we want freedom” while brandishing
blank white pieces of paper, which have become a symbol of protest in China in
recent days.
Cars that passed by regularly joined
in the fanfare by honking their horns and giving thumbs up to protesters which
in turn generated massive cheers from those gathered.
The
protesters were trailed by dozens of uniformed police officers, with
plain-clothes security personnel in among the crowd and police cars moving
along nearby.
More
China COVID cases hit fresh record high after weekend of protests (yahoo.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Oil
falls over $2 a barrel as China's COVID protests fuel demand fears
November 28, 2022 3:09
AM GMT
TOKYO, Nov 28
(Reuters) - Oil futures fell more than $2 a barrel on Monday, with WTI hitting
an 11-month low, as protests in top importer China over strict COVID-19 curbs
fuelled demand concerns.
Brent crude dropped
$2.16, or 2.6%, to trade at $81.47 a barrel at 0230 GMT, after diving to $81.16
earlier in the session -- its lowest since Jan. 11.
U.S. West Texas
Intermediate (WTI) crude slid $2.08, or 2.7%, to $74.20 a barrel. It fell as
far as $73.82 earlier -- its lowest since Dec. 27, 2021.
Both benchmarks,
which hit 10-month lows last week, have posted three consecutive weekly
declines. Brent ended the latest week down 4.6%, while WTI fell 4.7%.
"On
top of growing concerns about weaker fuel demand in China due to a surge in
COVID-19 cases, political uncertainty, caused by rare protests over the
government's stringent COVID restrictions in Shanghai, prompted selling,"
said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of research at Nissan Securities.
WTI's
trading range is expected to fall to $70-$75, he said, adding the market could
stay volatile depending on the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting and the price cap
on Russian oil.
China, the
world's top oil importer, has stuck with President Xi Jinping's zero-COVID
policy even as much of the world has lifted most restrictions.
Hundreds
of demonstrators and police clashed in Shanghai on Sunday night as protests
over China's strict COVID restrictions flared for a third day and spread to
several cities in the wake of a deadly fire in the country's far west.
More
Oil
falls over $2 a barrel as China's COVID protests fuel demand fears | Reuters
Treasury
market’s big recession trade gathers momentum
The US economy has so far shown
itself to be quite resilient in the face of rate hikes
Published: November 27,
2022 09:32
The bond market is
zeroing in on a US recession next year, with traders betting that the
longer-term trajectory for interest rates will be down even as the Federal
Reserve is still busy raising its policy rate.
Long-dated Treasury
yields are already below the Fed’s overnight benchmark range - currently 3.75
per cent to 4 per cent - and there’s still an extra percentage point of central
bank increases priced in for the coming months. Activity has also emerged in
the options market that suggests some are hedging against the risk that policy
rates could eventually halve from their current level.
Rather than wait
for conclusive economic evidence that this year’s frenetic monetary tightening
will deliver recessionary conditions in 2023, investors have been buying bonds
- a stance advocated by Pacific Investment Management Co., among others.
“Fed policy is
dynamic and they are still signaling they are going to go higher,” said Gregory
Faranello, head of US rates trading and strategy at AmeriVet Securities. “But
the market trades like it is more comfortable with the Fed getting to an end
game.”
Demand for
Treasuries with longer tenors this week dragged the rate on 10-year and 30-year
securities below the lower bound of the Fed’s overnight range. With front-end
rates holding relatively steady, that’s seen an intensification of the most
pronounced yield curve inversion in four decades - a widely watched indicator
of potential economic pain to come.
“The recession
indicator narrative is strong, but from the Fed’s perspective it is part of the
solution,” said Faranello.
The US economy -
and in particular the labour market - has so far shown itself to be quite
resilient in the face of Fed rate increases, which are aimed at trying to curb
high and seemingly persistent inflation. Investors will therefore be keenly
attuned to the monthly jobs report this coming Friday for signs of cracking, or
indications about whether it might pave the way for the Fed to tweak its policy
course.
They’ll be
scrutinising carefully the words of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues,
who will speak publicly next week for the last time before heading into the
customary blackout period ahead of the Fed’s December 13-14 policy meeting.
While minutes of their most recent meeting showed that they’re likely to slow
the pace of tightening soon, officials have been firm in reiterating the need
for policy rates to move above current levels.
More
Treasury market’s
big recession trade gathers momentum | Business – Gulf News
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Omicron BQ Covid
variants, which threaten people with compromised immune systems, are now
dominant in U.S.
The omicron BQ
coronavirus subvariants have risen to dominance in the U.S. as people gather
and travel for the Thanksgiving holiday, putting people with compromised immune
systems at increased risk.
BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are
causing 57% of new infections in the U.S., according to data published by the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday. The omicron BA.5
subvariant, once dominant, now makes up only a fifth of new Covid cases.
The BQ subvariants
are more immune evasive and likely resistant to key antibody medications, such
as Evusheld and bebtelovimab, used by people with compromised immune systems,
according to the National Institutes of Health. This includes organ transplant
and cancer chemotherapy patients.
There are currently no replacements for these
drugs. President Joe Biden, in an October speech, told people with compromised
immune systems that they should consult with their physicians and take extra
precautions this winter.
“New
variants may make some existing protections ineffective for the
immunocompromised. Sadly, this means you may be at a special risk this winter,”
Biden said.
The XBB subvariant is also
circulating at a low level right now, causing about 3% of new infections. Chief
White House medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci, in a briefing Tuesday, said XBB
is even more immune evasive than the BQ subvariants.
Fauci, director of the National
Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said the new boosters, which were
designed against omicron BA.5, probably aren’t as effective against infection
and mild illness from XBB. But the shots should protect against severe disease,
he said. Singapore saw a spike in cases from XBB, but there wasn’t a major
surge in hospitalizations, he added.
Moderna and Pfizer said last week
that their boosters induce an immune response against BQ.1.1, which is a
descendent of the BA.5 subvariant.
Fauci, in the press briefing, said
public health officials believe there is enough immunity from vaccination,
boosting and infection to prevent a repeat of the unprecedented Covid surge
that occurred last winter when omicron first arrived.
Covid:
Omicron BQ variants dominant, XBB circulating at low level (cnbc.com)
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Solar power ban on England’s farms could see farmers
missing out on £1bn benefit, analysis reveals
Published 24th November 2022
Almost 80% of farms in England do not have
solar panels installed but, if they did, they could reap significant financial
benefits by avoiding high gas prices and generating additional revenue streams,
a new analysis has concluded.
Published today by the Energy and Climate Intelligence
Unit (ECIU), the analysis reveals that 78% of farms in England have no
renewable energy generation installed onsite. The most common form of onsite
generation for English farmers is solar.
It concludes that, if all farms which could install solar
did so, they could reap some £1.1bn of financial benefits within a two-year
period from 2023. The benefits would primarily arise from reduced energy bills,
through the avoidance of expensive gas and gas-fired electricity, and through
the ability for farmers to sell energy back to the grid, providing an
additional revenue stream.
The ECIU is emphasising that these savings would almost
cover the extra that farmers are having to pay for fertilisers. Fertiliser
prices have skyrocketed this year because Russia’s war in Ukraine has disrupted
global supply chains; pre-war, Russia and Ukraine accounted for more than 40%
of the global ammonia supply.
With these findings in mind, the ECIU is urging the UK Government
to stop considering a ban on solar development on large swathes of agricultural
land. It was reported in early October that the Department for Food, the Environment and
Rural Affairs (Defra) is looking to extend its ban on solar for high-grade
farmland to land categorised as 3b, or “sub-grade”. Land within this category
accounts for the majority of the planned pipeline for ground-mounted solar on
farms. The ban already applies to grade 1, 2 and 3a land.
More
The best way to make every one poor is to insist on equality of wealth.
Napoleon Bonaparte.
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