Baltic Dry Index. 1189 -39 Brent Crude 87.62
Spot Gold 1751 U S 2 Year Yield 4.51 +0.08
In
the stock casinos, a year-end of worry. Look away from the falling Baltic Dry
Index, falling crude oil prices and the ever more inverting US yield curve now!
How
will the bad year of 2022 end? Will there be the usual dress up stocks and
indexes Santa Claus rally?
What
if rising interest rates have already blown up many zombie stocks? What if
punters take to selling off losers ahead of a recessionary 2023
And
most of all, is 2022 the year of the end for cryptocurrency and Twitter?
What
does it mean for investing if it is?
But
the big news this weekend lies in the next section.
S&P 500 closes higher on Friday, but ends week
with losses
UPDATED FRI, NOV 18 2022 5:14 PM EST
The major
averages ticked higher in afternoon trading Friday to end the day on an upbeat
note as investors assessed tougher language from Federal Reserve speakers and
pored over the latest earnings reports.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 199.37
points, or 0.59%, to 33,745.69, while the S&P 500 climbed 0.48% to
3,965.34. The Nasdaq Composite finished just 0.01% above the flat line at
11,146.06.
All of the major averages posted losses for the
week. The Dow ended 0.01% lower. The S&P 500 lost 0.69% for the week, while
the Nasdaq ended 1.57% lower. All three indexes are positive for the month,
however.
The market was divided for much of the day, with
the S&P 500 trading mostly flat as investors started to reset expectations
after a couple of rallies over the past week, beginning with the October CPI
print. Stephanie Lang, chief investment officer at Homrich Berg, said this week
is characterized by a “back-to-reality viewpoint.”
“Following the big rally coming off the
better-than-expected CPI print, the market’s digesting the current data, which
is bringing things back to reality,” she said. “The rally that followed the CPI
print we don’t feel was justified by fundamentals… The market’s also pricing in
a soft landing here, which we don’t think is likely to occur. So when you hear
the Fed officials coming out and reiterating their stance, you’re starting to
see the market readjust to that.”
On Friday, Boston Federal Reserve
President Susan Collins expressed confidence that policymakers can
tame inflation without doing too much damage to employment.
St. Louis Federal Reserve
President James Bullard said
Thursday that “the
policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently
restrictive.” He suggested that the appropriate zone for the federal funds rate
could be in the 5% to 7% range, which is higher than what the market is
pricing.
“We continue to think investors
should place much more emphasis on the actual data and not focus too much on
Fed rhetoric (the former will show where inflation is headed while the latter
is fixated on where it was),” said Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital
Knowledge. “That said, investors are tired of battling the Fed’s daily tape
bombs and the fear is it may take 2-3 more CPIs for officials to stop
admonishing the market every time it tries to rally.”
S&P
500 closes higher on Friday, but ends week with losses (cnbc.com)
Falling Q4 profit forecasts another
negative for U.S. stocks
November 18, 2022 9:03 PM GMT
NEW YORK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - After a disappointing
third-quarter reporting period, analysts are projecting that fourth-quarter
U.S. earnings will decline for the first time in two years as rising interest
rates and slowing growth further dampen the outlook.
Estimates have been falling for 2023 quarters as
well, and Goldman Sachs recently cut its 2023 S&P 500 earnings per share
growth forecast to zero, citing weakening profit margins.
As of Friday, analysts were forecasting a 0.4% fall
in year-over-year fourth-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies, according
to IBES data from Refinitiv. That compares with the 5.8% increase they forecast
on Oct. 1.
The last time there was a quarterly decline in
S&P 500 earnings was in the third quarter of 2020, when companies were
still reeling from the initial shock of and disruptions caused by the
coronavirus pandemic.
The
weakening profit outlook only adds to worries for investors, who have been concerned
that aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to control inflation
could lead to a recession. The S&P 500 (.SPX) is
down about 17% for the year-to-date.
"Third-quarter
earnings, they missed expectations. But what we've been focusing on really is
2023," said Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at
Boston Partners in Boston.
"For
the Fed to achieve their inflation targets, they're going to have to push the
economy into a recession," which means 2023 profit estimates "have to
come down a lot more," he said.
More
Falling
Q4 profit forecasts another negative for U.S. stocks | Reuters
In
commodities news, our new Electric Everything age hits a silver crash barrier.
Silver heads for biggest deficit
in decades, Silver Institute says
November 18, 2022 1:05
AM GMT
LONDON, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Global demand for silver
is expected to rise 16% this year to 1.21 billion ounces, creating the biggest
deficit in decades, according to the Silver Institute on Thursday night.
Use of silver by industry, for jewellery and
silverware and for bars and coins for retail investors were all forecast to
reach record levels, the institute said.
Automakers are using more silver as the amount of
electronics in vehicles increases, but the sector accounts for only around 5%
of total demand. Solar panels account for around 10% of silver demand.
Demand in India almost
doubled in 2022 as buyers took advantage of low prices to replenish stockpiles
drawn down in 2020 and 2021.
Exchange traded
funds (ETFs) storing silver for investors shrank, however, returning metal to
the market, but the Silver Institute does not count ETFs as physical demand
because they only store wholesale silver bars and do not rework them.
The Silver
Institute predicted a deficit of 194 million ounces this year, up from 48
million ounces in 2021.
Demand is likely to fall next year, said Philip
Newman at consultants Metals Focus, which prepared the Silver Institute's
numbers.
"India's restocking is likely to trip over
into 2023 but at some point will dissipate," he said. "By extension,
you could see some decent figures in 2023 but it may not match 2022."
The amount of silver stored in vaults in London and
New York monitored by the COMEX exchange and the London Bullion Market
Association has fallen by around 370 million ounces – or 25% -- this year.
But Newman said there was plenty of silver left.
"You do have still sizeable stocks," he said. "I don't think
that's a concern."
Silver prices have fallen around 10% this year to
$21 an ounce, mostly due to financial investors selling silver in response to
rising U.S. bond yields and a strengthening dollar.
More
Silver heads for biggest deficit in decades, Silver Institute says | Reuters
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
This weekend, that very strange, massive and growing, FTX/crypto scandal.
Approx.
30 minutes, but worth it.
The FTX
Disaster is Deeper Than you Think
The
FTX Disaster is Deeper Than you Think - YouTube
Approx.
33 minutes, but worth it.
The
Deeply Troubling FTX Facts and ‘Coincidences’
(2) The Deeply
Troubling FTX Facts and ‘Coincidences’ - YouTube
Hong Kong's leading crypto retail
operator says it ceases trading as FTX fallout roils sector
November 18, 2022
8:37 AM GMT
HONG KONG, Nov 18 (Reuters) - A leading
cryptocurrency retail service provider in Hong Kong said it has ceased trading
as the broader fallout from the collapse of FTX, and solvency issues at other
major crypto firms, continues to roil the sector.
Genesis Block, which at one time operated one of
Asia's biggest bitcoin ATM networks, said it would be closing down its
over-the-counter trading portal on Dec. 10, according to an email to customers
sent by its compliance department reviewed by Reuters.
"We have
ceased trading, as we don't know which counterparties would fail next, so we
would rather close out all our positions to regain some of our liquidity,"
chief executive Wincent Hung told Reuters this week.
The company is
also asking customers to withdraw their funds, the email shows, and will not
accept new customers.
Genesis
Block has no connection with a separate crypto player called Genesis Global
Capital which suspended customer
redemptions this week.
Even before FTX's
bankruptcy, Genesis Block had been winding down its Hong Kong business,
according to three people familiar with the situation, cutting ties with the
failed exchange earlier this month.
One
person with knowledge of the matter said one Genesis Block official was
previously a director in FTX Hong Kong, but resigned from the directorship this
month. FTX Hong Kong is one of the about 130 FTX-affiliated companies backed by
Sam Bankman-Fried that have filed Chapter 11 bankrupcy proceedings in the
United States. read more
More
'Headed for oblivion': Economist Paul Krugman warns of
'collapse of crypto institutions' after FTX debacle
November
18, 2022
Right-wing libertarians and
socially conservative MAGA Republicans disagree about many things, but one
thing they do have in common is an affection for cryptocurrencies. It isn’t
hard to find people on the right who are unapologetically bullish on cryptocurrencies.
But
one person who doesn’t share their enthusiasm is liberal economist and New York
Times columnist Paul Krugman. In his November 17 column, Krugman
lays out some reasons why he believes there is a “strong case” that the
cryptocurrency industry is “headed for oblivion.”
“Crypto reached its peak of public prominence
last year, when Matt Damon’s ‘Fortune favors the brave’ commercial — sponsored
by the Singapore-based exchange Crypto.com — first aired,” Krugman explains.
“At the time, Bitcoin, the most famous cryptocurrency, was selling for more
than $60,000. Bitcoin is now trading below $17,000. So, people who bought after
watching the Damon ad have lost more than 70 percent of their investment. In
fact, since most people who bought Bitcoin did so when its price was high, most
investors in the currency — around three-quarters of them, according to a new
analysis by the Bank for International Settlements — have lost money so far.”
More
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
More on
vitamin D again. Approx. 19 minutes but worth it.
Safe
and effective
World
Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
The Spectator
Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Graphene scientists explore electronic materials with
nanoscale curved geometries
17
November, 2022
In a recently published paper
in Nature Electronics, an international research group from Italy, Germany,
the UK, and China examined significant development directions in the field of
electronic materials with curved geometries at the nanoscale. From
microelectronic devices with enhanced functionality to large-scale
nanomembranes consisting of networks of electronic sensors that can provide
improved performance.
The scientists argue that
exciting developments induced by curvature at the nanoscale allow them to
define a completely new field – curved nanoelectronics. The paper examines in
detail the origin of curvature effects at the nanoscale and illustrates their
potential applications in innovative electronic, spintronic and superconducting
devices.
Curved solid-state structures
also offer many application opportunities. On a microscopic level, shape
deformations in electronic nanochannels give rise to complex three-dimensional
spin textures with an unbound potential for new concepts in spin-orbitronics,
which will help develop energy-efficient electronic devices. Curvature effects
can also promote, in a semimetallic nanowire, the generation of topological insulating
phases that can be exploited in nanodevices relevant for quantum technologies,
like quantum metrology. In the case of magnetism, curvilinear geometry directly
forges the magnetic exchange by generating an effective magnetic anisotropy,
thus prefiguring a high potential for designing magnetism on demand.
Dr Ivan Vera-Marun from the National Graphene Institute at The
University of Manchester commented: “nanoscale curvature and its associated
strain result in remarkable effects in graphene and 2D materials. The
development in preparation of high-quality extended thin films, as well as the
potential to arbitrarily reshape those architectures after their fabrication,
has enabled first experimental insights into how next-generation electronics
can be compliant and thus integrable with living matter”.
The paper also describes the
methods needed to synthesise and characterise curvilinear nanostructures,
including complex 3D nanoarchitectures like semiconductor nanomembranes and
rolled up sandwiches of 2D materials, and highlights key areas for the future
developments of curved nanoelectronics.
Graphene
scientists explore electronic materials (manchester.ac.uk)
This weekend’s music diversion. The
almost totally forgotten Italian Evaristo Felice Dall'Abaco.
Approx. 13 minutes.
Dall'Abaco
- Concerto à più instrumenti in D Major Op. 5 No. 6
Dall'Abaco
- Concerto à più instrumenti in D Major Op. 5 No. 6 - YouTube
This
weekend’s chess update. Approx. 11 minutes.
UNSTOPPABLE Mate in 11
Moves!!!
UNSTOPPABLE Mate
in 11 Moves!!! - YouTube
This
week’s maths update. Approx. 12 minutes.
Why
7 is Weird – Numberphile
Why 7
is Weird - Numberphile - YouTube
For
a customer to lose money at his brokers is no rare event. But for a customer to
make money and then not get it is the worst crime on the speculators’ statute
books.
Jesse Livermore.
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