Baltic Dry Index. 1377 -86 Brent Crude 95.66
Spot Gold 1650 US 2 Year Yield 4.41 +0.15
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 02/11/22 World 636,012,703
Deaths 6,595,787
In central banking as in diplomacy, style, conservative
tailoring, and an easy association with the affluent count greatly and results
far much less.
John Kenneth Galbraith
Today and tomorrow in the stock casinos, it’s all about how high the US central bank raises its key interest rate and what guidance they issue later in the day on future inflation and rate hikes.
Wall Street “experts” a pretty much all over the Street with conflicting expectations largely predicated on their jobs depending on their ability or otherwise to peddle stocks.
In reality, next week’s outcome of the mid-term elections is much more important for US stocks.
Will the Biden Democrats hold on to power with a very left wing Magic Money Tree agenda or will the Republicans gain power turning President Biden into a two year lame duck President. Inflation on steroids or thrift and recession.
Most polls show it’s too close to call.
Hong Kong stocks
extend gains after previous session’s rally; Asia markets mixed ahead of Fed
decision
NOV 2 2022 12:40 AM EDT
Shares in the Asia-Pacific were mostly higher on
Wednesday as investors brace for another likely 75-basis-point rate hike by the
Federal Reserve.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was
up 1.74% despite slipping in early trade, after closing more than 5% higher on
Tuesday. The Hong Kong Observatory announced it would issue
a Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal Number 8 at or before 1:40 p.m. local time.
Trading will end 15 minutes after the signal is issued, according to HKEX’s website.
The Shanghai Composite in
mainland China also reversed losses to gain 0.88% and the Shenzhen Component added
1.105%.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 was
0.13% lower and the Topix was flat. Fast Retailing is set to report sales for
Uniqlo in Japan.
The Kospi in
South Korea traded 0.13% lower after struggling for direction. South
Korea’s inflation inched higher to 5.7% in October, higher than
5.6% forecasted by analysts in a Reuters poll.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded
0.1% higher. The MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was
0.52% up.
U.S. stocks slipped overnight as investors digested economic data ahead of
an expected rate hike from the Fed later Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial
Average shed 79.75 points, or 0.24%, to 32,653.20, while the S&P 500 lost
0.41% to 3,856.10. The Nasdaq Composite was 0.89% lower at 10,890.85.
Hong
Kong stocks rise; Asia markets mixed ahead of Fed rate decision (cnbc.com)
The Fed is
expected to raise interest rates by three-quarters of a point and then signal
it could slow the pace
The Federal Reserve
is expected to raise interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point
Wednesday and then signal that it could reduce the size of its rate hikes
starting as soon as December.
Markets are primed
for the fourth 75-basis point hike in a row, and investors are anticipating the
Fed will slow down its pace before winding down the rate-hiking cycle in March.
A basis point is equal to 0.01 of a percentage point.
“We think they hike
just to get to the end point. We do think they hike by 75. We think they do
open the door to a step down in rate hikes beginning in December,” said Michael
Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America.
Gapen said he expects Fed Chair Jerome Powell to indicate during his press briefing that
the Fed discussed slowing the pace of rate hikes but did not commit to it. He expects
the Fed would then raise interest rates by a half percentage point in December.
“The November meeting
isn’t really about November. It’s about December,” Gapen said. He expects the
Fed to raise rates to a level of 4.75% to 5% by spring, and that would be its
terminal rate — or end point. The 75 basis point hike Wednesday would take the
fed funds rate range to 3.75% to 4%, from a range of zero to 0.25% in March.
“The market is very
fixated on the fact there’s going to be 75 in November, 50 [basis points] in
December, 25 on Feb. 1 and then probably another 25 in March,” said Julian
Emanuel, head of equity, derivatives and quantitative strategy at Evercore ISI.
“So in reality, the market already thinks this is happening, and from my point
of view, there’s no way the outcome of his press conference is going to be more
dovish than that.”
The stock market has
already rallied on expectations of a slowdown in rate hikes by the Fed, after a
final 75 basis point hike Wednesday afternoon. But strategists also say the
market’s reaction could be violent if the Fed disappoints. The challenge for Powell
will be to walk a fine line between signaling less-aggressive hikes are
possible and upholding the Fed’s pledge to battle inflation.
For that reason, market pros expect the Fed chair to sound
hawkish, and that could rattle stocks and send bond yields higher. Yields move
opposite price.
----
As the Fed has raised interest rates, the economy is beginning to show signs of
slowing. The housing market is slumping, as some mortgage rates have nearly
doubled. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage was at 7.08% in the week of Oct. 28,
up from 3.85% in March, according to Freddie Mac.
More
Fed
seen raising rates by three-quarters of a point, may slow pace ahead (cnbc.com)
Jump
in U.S. job openings may jolt Fed yet again
November 1, 2022 11:05
PM GMT
WASHINGTON, Nov 1
(Reuters) - A jump in U.S. monthly job openings has thrown the Federal Reserve
another confounding bit of data for its policy meeting this week, with more
evidence that rapid interest rate increases have yet to bite hard in the real
economy.
New data released by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics on Tuesday showed firms had 10.7 million job openings at the end of
September, a jump of about half a million from August in a number the Fed
expects to see move lower as demand in the economy slows.
Yields on U.S.
Treasury bonds rose after the release of the data, as did bets that the Fed may
raise its target policy rate higher than anticipated.
With
the central bank widely expected to lift that rate yet again by three-quarters
of a percentage point to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% at the end of a two-day
meeting on Wednesday, traders are now leaning to a fifth straight hike of that
size at the Fed's final meeting of the year in December, with the target policy
rate seen exceeding 5% in March.
The job openings
data "will make it very difficult for the Fed to pivot" towards a
slower pace of rate hikes, as many have expected, Jefferies economists Aneta
Markowska and Thomas Simons wrote. "In order to slow the pace of hikes,
the Fed needs to be able to make a compelling case that slowing labor demand
will take pressure off of labor costs, ultimately slowing inflation. It's
difficult to make that case after today's report."
The
new data means there were more than 1.85 jobs available for each person
estimated to be formally unemployed in September, an increase from August in a
data point that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said he watches closely for
evidence U.S. labor markets are becoming better aligned between the number of
workers firms want to hire and the number of jobseekers.
More
Jump
in U.S. job openings may jolt Fed yet again | Reuters
Finally, aside from the Palace of Westminster, will there be any turkeys left in GB by Christmas?
A lockdown for anything
with feathers - why bird flu epidemic is different this time
Tom Clarke, science and technology editor 31 October, 2022.
As of Monday 7 November, all kept birds -
whether they are large free-range flocks or hobby racing pigeons - will have to be kept indoors or
in covered outdoor cages.
Biosecurity measures like disinfecting
vehicles, equipment and boots are required as well as bans on the movement of
live birds.
Extreme measures for an extreme
situation.
Europe is in the grips of a bird flu epidemic caused by the highly
pathogenic H5N1 strain of the virus.
It is highly infectious and causes
rapid illness and death in commercial flocks of chickens ducks, turkeys and
geese.
England has had occasional outbreaks
of H5N1 since the virus first began spreading from China where it originated in
1996.
The virus also caused sporadic
outbreaks in wild birds, particularly wildfowl like ducks geese and swans.
Culling of infected flocks and curbs on the movement of birds kept outbreaks
limited in scope.
But this year it has been different.
H5N1 spent the summer causing continued
outbreaks in wild birds with mass die-offs in seabirds and migratory wildfowl
across much of the northern hemisphere.
It is believed the hundreds of
outbreaks on poultry farms this year have been linked to spread from wild birds
into farms.
What's changed?
Researchers studying the genetics of
the virus believe it has adapted in some way, allowing it to be as well-suited
to infecting wild birds as it is farmed poultry.
If that situation continues, the
concern is bird flu becomes endemic in Europe, if it isn't already. As well as
ongoing outbreaks on farms, migratory birds arriving in the UK this autumn are
dying in unprecedented numbers infected with H5N1.
A current frustration for
conservationists is the impression that wild birds are being "blamed"
for the current situation.
However there is good evidence
crowded, intensively farmed poultry flocks gave bird flu the opportunity to
evolve into highly infectious strains that are now decimating wildlife.
Whichever is the case, something will
have to be done to break the vicious cycle of infection between wild birds and
domestic ones.
The best tool would be bird flu jabs
for farmed poultry. Several have been trialled on birds, and more waiting to be
tested.
However, current trade rules prohibit
the use of bird flu vaccines. The concern being they could allow certain
exporters to be more lax in biosecurity measures leading to the spread of other
diseases.
The current epidemic may force a
rethink.
A lockdown for anything with feathers - why bird flu
epidemic is different this time (msn.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Impose windfall tax on
banks, says former Bank of England deputy governor - live updates
James Warrington, Tim Wallace – 1 November, 2022
Rishi Sunak should launch a windfall tax raid on banks to rake in tens
of billions of pounds to help shore up the public finances, a former deputy
governor of the Bank of England has urged.
Rising interest rates
mean commercial banks which hold reserves at the Bank of England are receiving
much higher income from those deposits because of the jump in the Bank’s base
rate, which has risen from 0.1pc a year ago to 2.25pc now and potentially 3pc
later this week.
It means the quantitative easing
scheme, under which the Bank of England bought almost £900bn of bonds, is about
to go from generating a significant profit for the Government to incurring a
large loss.
But the Bank could change the rules
to pay banks a lower rate of interest on the reserves which were created under
QE, Sir Charlie Bean suggested, or the Government could ramp up taxes on banks
instead.
“When QE started the interest that
was paid on [reserves] was derisory, but now bank rate is rising, it is
starting to be more substantial,” said Sir Charlie, who also served as a member
of the Budget Responsibility Committee.
Raiding this stream of cash could be
valuable for a Government in a tight financial spot: “You are talking about
tens of billions, potentially,” he told a Resolution Foundation event.
“You could think of the higher bank
tax now as a form of windfall tax - they are benefitting from the fact that
bank rate is temporarily higher to squeeze out inflation.”
Impose windfall
tax on banks, says former Bank of England deputy governor - live updates
(msn.com)
House
prices fall for first time in 15 months
1 November, 2022
Average house prices fell by 0.9pc in October, the first monthly decline
since July 2021, according to a report by Nationwide. The average price is now
£268,282, down from £272,259 last month, which the lender said was the sharpest
drop in cash terms since June 2020.
Annual house price growth
slowed to 7.2pc in October, and brokers warned that “a drop of 20pc or more
over the next 18 months is quite possible”.
Robert Gardner, of
Nationwide, attributed the drop in prices to former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s
ill-fated mini-Budget impacting the markets and raising interest rates.
He said: “Higher borrowing costs have added to stretched housing affordability at a
time when household finances are already under pressure from high inflation.”
Household budgets have also
been hit by an 80pc surge in energy bills, despite the Government’s energy price guarantee, which
means the typical household pays £2,500 a year for their energy use.
First-time buyers were now
spending a proportion of their salary on mortgage payments comparable to the
financial crisis, Mr Gardner said.
Assuming they were
earning the average wage, a prospective first-time buyer would have seen their
monthly mortgage payments on a typical home, with a 20pc deposit and the
average mortgage rate of 5.5pc, jump from 34pc of take-home pay to 45pc in the
last month.
More
House prices fall
for first time in 15 months (msn.com)
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.
More on the Mad Scientists playing Russian Roulette with Covid-19. This time in a lab in London. What could possibly go wrong?
Report:
Potentially Lethal New Super Strain Of COVID Created In London Lab
Renowned
Molecular Biologist describes development as “insanity”
Published 14 hours ago on 31 October, 2022
A potentially deadly new strain of COVID has been created in a
University lab in London, according to a report.
The Daily Mail reports that researchers at
Imperial College London have hybridised the original Wuhan strain of the
disease with both the Omicron or Delta variants separately.
The
College is yet to reveal how effective the strain they have created is, and has
denied that the work constitutes gain of function, the process now widely
believed to have been responsible for the original strain in Wuhan.
Molecular
biology expert Dr. Richard Ebright warned that the new mutant strain, which was
injected into hamsters in London, “is insanity, both in terms of the redundancy
and waste,” and that it has zero “foreseeable practical applications.”
Dr. Ebright further
warned that the development is huge “especially, in terms of the risk of
triggering a new pandemic wave upon accidental or deliberate release of the
laboratory-generated viruses.”
“This should be a
wake-up call,” the biologist urged, adding “If the world wishes to avoid new
pandemic waves and pandemics caused by lab-generated enhanced potential
pandemic pathogens, then it is urgently necessary to restrict senseless
high-risk, low-benefit research that creates enhanced potential pandemic
pathogens and to implement effective national oversight, with force of law, on
such research.”
The development comes after Boston University created a new strain with an 80
percent KILL RATE in
a similar fashion.
A former director of the Israeli Government’s Institute for
Biological Research, Professor Shmuel Shapira, described the research as
“playing with fire.”
Last week, a new interim report released by the Senate Committee on
Health, Education, Labor and Pensions concluded that the origins of Covid-19
more likely than not came from a “research-related incident,” rather than
“natural zoonotic spillover.”
“While precedent of previous outbreaks of human infections
from contact with animals favors the hypothesis that a natural zoonotic
spillover is responsible for the origin of SARS-CoV-2, the emergence of
SARS-CoV-2 that resulted in the COVID-19 pandemic was most likely the result of
a research-related incident,” the report states, while
conceding that “This conclusion is not intended to be dispositive.”
Report:
Potentially Lethal New Super Strain Of COVID Created In London Lab – Summit
News
US
Senate, lab origin most likely
US
Senate, lab origin most likely - YouTube
Approx.
22 minutes.
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine
Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19
vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Renewable energy records tumble around the country as rooftop
solar power soars
By energy reporter Daniel Mercer
Posted
Soaring power production from households and businesses with
rooftop solar panels has sent records tumbling across Australia as output from
fossil fuels falls to all-time lows.
In events described as unprecedented,
demand for electricity from the grid plummeted to record lows in Queensland,
Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia during the past two months.
The record so-called minimum
operational demand excludes the power generated by consumers with their own
solar panels, which met 92 per cent of South Australia's overall needs at one
point on October 17.
It typically occurs on mild, sunny
weekend days when solar output is at its highest but demand for electricity is
subdued because many businesses are not open and often air conditioners
are not running.
Energy experts say the trend is
unlikely to slow down amid the
runaway take-up of rooftop solar and highlights the urgent need for
new infrastructure and back-up power needed to accommodate more renewable
energy.
"We have observed records being
broken recently – I think we need to get used to that," said Alex Wonhas,
a former electricity system planner.
"They
will keep coming around and around because our demand stays relatively stable.
"And, as we install more and
more in particular behind-the-meter (solar), the residual demand on the system
will keep going down and down and down."
More
Renewable
energy records tumble around the country as rooftop solar power soars - ABC
News
In any
great organization it is far, far safer to be wrong with the majority than to
be right alone.
John Kenneth
Galbraith.
No comments:
Post a Comment