Baltic Dry Index. 1228 -60 Brent Crude 90.23
Spot Gold 1764 US 2 Year Yield 4.43 +0.08
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 18/11/22 World 641,989,577
Deaths 6,621,909
Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information,” said John J. Ray III, FTX’s group new CEO.
The Great FTX/Democrat scandal lurches from bad to criminally bad. In the latest filings what’s left of FTX seems to have been looted by agencies of the Bahamas themselves.
Unsurprisingly, the Democrat Party and its candidate recipients say they will not be returning any of their share of the FTX theft(s.) I suspect that many lawyers for the victims will disagree and go after greedy Democrats and other recipients of looted cash.
This is a scandal with long legs, possibly even up to ”the big one,” President Biden himself.
More on that below.
In the stock casinos, talk of still higher interest rates; more sign of global inflation and recession; and in the UK at least, much higher taxes, especially fuel duty.
In the UK, higher fuel duty will feed into next year’s continuing inflation.
In the USA, how long can Twitter last?
Time for the side-lines if not in a nuclear bunker.
The only good news this weekend, Ukraine’s attempt to talk NATO into war with Russia completely failed.
Futures trade
mixed as investors assess the prospect of higher interest rates
UPDATED THU, NOV 17 2022 11:16 PM EST
Futures were mixed early Friday morning as
investors continued evaluating earnings reports and tougher language from
Federal Reserve speakers.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average inched downward by 34 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500′s
futures traded near flat, while Nasdaq-100 futures ticked up 0.19%.
Thursday brought another day of
drops for the major indexes. The S&P 500 shed 0.31%, and the Nasdaq
Composite lost 0.35%.
Cisco shares rose during regular
trading, jumping off of earnings results. Meanwhile companies posting results
after the closing bell such as Gap, Ross Stores and Palo Alto Networks added to
the mix of companies outperforming expectations.
But investors also had to
consider comments from more than half a dozen Fed speakers at events across the
country. Notably, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said
Thursday that “the
policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently
restrictive.” He suggested that the appropriate zone for the federal funds rate
could be in the 5% to 7% range, which is higher than what the market is
pricing.
Yields, meanwhile, jumped in
tandem, with the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield rising to 4.45%. That
move alarmed investors who are worried that rising rates could trigger a
recession.
---- Investors will watch Friday for data on
existing home sales for any indication of a cooling economy. Boston Fed
President Susan Collins will speak in the morning.
Rate hikes have had ‘only limited
effects’ on inflation so far, Fed’s Bullard says
St. Louis Federal
Reserve President James Bullard’s language
Thursday hurt sentiment among investors hoping to see the
central bank pull back on interest rate hikes.
He said the Fed
still has a work to do before inflation is under control while delivering
remarks focused on the importance of using rules-based approaches when making
policy. He is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets
rates.
“Thus far, the
change in the monetary policy stance appears to have had only limited effects
on observed inflation, but market pricing suggests disinflation is expected in
2023,” he said.
Futures trade mixed as investors assess the prospect of higher interest rates (cnbc.com)
Shares
cautious, U.S. yield curve deep in recession territory
November 18, 2022 4:35
AM GMT
SYDNEY, Nov 18
(Reuters) - Asian shares were in a cautious mood on Friday after U.S. Federal
Reserve officials fired more warning shots on interest rates, while rising
coronavirus cases in China and liquidity strains in its bond market added to
uncertainty.
Both
the dollar and bond yields were shoved higher overnight when St. Louis Fed
President James Bullard said interest rates might need to hit a range
from 5% to 7% to be "sufficiently restrictive" to curb inflation.
That was a blow
to investors who had been wagering rates would peak at 5% and saw Fed fund
futures sell off as markets priced in more chance that rates would now top out
at 5-5.25%, rather than 4.75-5.0%.
Two-year
yields crept back up to 4.46%, retracing a little of last week's sharp
inflation-driven drop of 33 basis points to a low of 4.29%. That left them 69
basis points above 10-year yields, the largest inversion since 1981.
"The message
is about the desire from the Fed to lean against what they would consider premature
loosening of financial conditions," said Brian Daingerfield, an analyst at
NatWest Markets. "And on that front, message received.
"The
Fed seems squarely focused on over-signalling on the tightening front and
hoping the data slow to a point where they can have the flexibility to
undershoot."
The
bond market's warnings of recession were not exactly what Wall Street wanted to
hear and they left S&P 500 futures flat, while Nasdaq futures inched up
0.1%.
Shares
cautious, U.S. yield curve deep in recession territory | Reuters
After
Elon Musk's ultimatum, Twitter employees start exiting
November 18, 2022 4:41
AM GMT
Nov 17 (Reuters)
- Hundreds of Twitter employees are estimated to be leaving the beleaguered
social media company following an ultimatum from new owner Elon Musk that
staffers sign up for "long hours at high intensity," or leave.
In
a poll on the workplace app Blind, which verifies employees through their work
email addresses and allows them to share information anonymously, 42% of 180
people chose the answer for "Taking exit option, I'm free!"
---- While it is unclear how many employees have
chosen to stay, the numbers highlight the reluctance of some staffers to remain
at a company where Musk has hastened to fire half its employees including top
management, and is ruthlessly changing the culture to emphasize long hours and
an intense pace.
The
company notified employees that it will close its offices and cut badge access
until Monday, according to two sources. Security officers have begun kicking
employees out of the office on Thursday evening, one source said.
Musk
took to Twitter late on Thursday and said that he was not worried about
resignations as "the best people are staying."
More
After
Elon Musk's ultimatum, Twitter employees start exiting | Reuters
Finally, more fallout from the FTX [fraud/scam/Ponzi scheme/ your description here] collapse. Happily, no Democrats were hurt in the making of this financial collapse - yet.
Bankrupt
FTX's new CEO outlines fund abuses, untrustworthy records
November 18, 2022 2:04
AM GMT
Nov 17 (Reuters)
- The executive hired to steer FTX Group through bankruptcy offered his first
findings of improper fund transfers and poor accounting at the collapsed crypto
exchange on Thursday, describing it as a "complete failure" of
controls.
John
Ray, who was named FTX's chief executive after the company filed for bankruptcy
on Nov. 11, said in a court filing that the lapses in oversight, security and
corporate governance he identified were greater than in any other process he
has managed in his 40 years as a bankruptcy specialist, including at Enron.
---- FTX collapsed after
its founder Sam Bankman-Fried used $10 billion in client funds to prop up his
hedge fund Alameda Research, which had suffered losses when its bets on crypto
ventures soured, Reuters has previously reported. That left FTX with insufficient funds to cover
withdrawals when a plunge in the value of one of its
currencies, FTT, triggered a bank run.
While Ray's filing
does not provide a full account of FTX's demise, it details several lapses that
contributed to the downfall.
An Alameda entity
had lent $2.3 billion to an FTX entity, while Bankman-Fried and FTX co-founders
and top executives Nishad Singh and Ryan Salame had collectively borrowed $1.6
billion from Alameda, according to the filing. More such "related
party" transactions are listed in the filing, though details are not
offered.
Bankman-Fried,
Singh and Salame did not respond to requests for comment on Thursday.
FTX
funds were also used to buy homes and other personal items for employees and
advisors, Ray wrote. Some of this money transfers were not documented as
company loans, while the homes were registered under the names of the
employees, Ray added.
Proper
checks and balances were absent, according to the filing. Employees submitted
payment requests through an on-line "chat" platform and supervisors
approved them with personalized emojis, the filing states.
Bankman-Fried
often communicated through applications that were set to auto-delete after a
short period of time and encouraged employees to do the same, Ray wrote.
Most
of the financial statements Ray reviewed were not audited. He said he harboured
"substantial concerns" for statements he found that were audited
because they relied on Prager Metis, an accounting firm operating in the
virtual world, in metaverse platform Decentraland.
More
Bankrupt
FTX's new CEO outlines fund abuses, untrustworthy records | Reuters
Tom
Brady, Gisele Bundchen, David Ortiz among celebrities named in FTX crypto
lawsuit
NOV. 16, 2022 / 7:25 PM
Nov. 16 (UPI) -- A number of athletes and celebrities, including Tom Brady, Gisele
Bundchen, David
Ortiz and Stephen
Curry, are facing an $11 billion
class-action lawsuit over the collapse of crypto exchange FTX.
The lawsuit, which was filed Tuesday in Florida against FTX
founder Sam Bankman-Fried and the company's brand ambassadors who "aggressively
marketed the FTX platform," claims FTX used athletes and celebrities to
mislead investors, ultimately costing them billions of dollars in damages.
"The
deceptive FTX platform maintained by the FTX Entities was truly a house of
cards, a Ponzi scheme where the FTX Entities shuffled customer funds between
their opaque affiliated entities, using new investor funds obtained through
investments in the yield-bearing accounts, and loans to pay interest to the old
ones and to attempt to maintain the appearance of liquidity," the lawsuit,
filed by Edwin Garrison on behalf of himself and others, states.
The
suit claims FTX was "designed to take advantage of unsophisticated
investors from across the country, who utilize mobile apps to make their
investments."
"Part of the scheme employed by the FTX Entities
involved utilizing some of the biggest names in sports and entertainment --
like these Defendants -- to raise funds and drive American consumers to
invest," the lawsuit said claiming brand ambassadors should also be held
liable.
Brady,
the Tampa
Bay Buccaneers's quarterback, and
his recently
divorced wife supermodel Bundchen, filmed a commercial last year as part of a $20 million ad
campaign for FTX.
Former Boston
Red Sox Hall of Famer Ortiz
was also featured in a World Series ad that declared FTX the official crypto
exchange of Major League Baseball.
In
addition to Brady, Bunchen, Ortiz and Curry, Shaquille
O'Neal, Trevor
Lawrence and comedian Larry
David, whose ad was shown during
the Super Bowl, are also named in the suit, as are the Golden
State Warriors basketball
team which was a visible partner of FTX.
Last week,
FTX Group announced it had commenced voluntary Chapter 11
bankruptcy proceedings. The
announcement said there were approximately 130 affiliated companies in the FTX
Group currently entering bankruptcy proceedings. Bankman-Fried also resigned,
with the 30-year-old former CEO announcing on Saturday that he was in the
Bahamas.
The House
Financial Services Committee announced Wednesday it would hold hearings next month to investigate the collapse of
FTX Group. The Committee expects to call Bankman-Fried, as well as other
witnesses, according to chairwoman Rep. Maxine
Waters, D-Calif.
"The fall of FTX has posed tremendous harm to over one
million users," Waters said in a statement, "many of whom were
everyday people who invested their hard-earned savings into the FTX cryptocurrency
exchange, only to watch it all disappear within a matter of seconds."
Tom Brady, Gisele
Bundchen, David Ortiz among celebrities named in FTX crypto lawsuit - UPI.com
FTX suggests Sam
Bankman-Fried transferred assets to Bahamas government custody after
bankruptcy: Filing
FTX in a bombshell emergency court filing Thursday
said evidence suggests Bahamian regulators directed former CEO Sam
Bankman-Fried to gain “unauthorized access” to FTX systems to obtain digital
assets belonging to the company after it had filed for bankruptcy protection.
The filing said that Bankman-Fried
transferred those assets to the custody of the Bahamian government. It cites an interview published by Vox on Wednesday
where Bankman-Fried expresses serious disdain for regulators.
“F--- regulators,” he said in the
interview. “They make everything worse. They don’t protect customers at all.”
---- The accusations were made by FTX in a motion in the United
States Bankruptcy Court in Delaware. In that motion, FTX said the alleged
conduct puts “in serious question” a request by Bahamian regulators for
recognition as liquidators in the bankruptcy.
″[I]n connection with
investigating a hack on Sunday, November 13, Mr. Bankman-Fried and [FTX
co-founder Gary] Wang, stated in recorded and verified texts that “Bahamas
regulators” instructed that certain post-petition transfers of Debtor assets be
made by Mr. Wang and Mr. Bankman-Fried (who the Debtors understand were both
effectively in the custody of Bahamas authorities) and that such assets were “custodied
on FireBlocks under control of Bahamian gov’t,” the filing said.
“The Debtors thus
have credible evidence that the Bahamian government is responsible for
directing unauthorized access to the Debtors’ systems for the purpose of
obtaining digital assets of the Debtors—that took place after the commencement
of these cases. The appointment of the JPLs and recognition of the Chapter 15
Case are thus in serious question,” the filing continued.
Sam Bankman-Fried was
not immediately available to comment. The law firms representing FTX, Landis
Rath & Cobb and Sullivan & Cromwell, did not respond to a request for
comment. CNBC did not immediately receive a response to an email to the
Securities Commission of the Bahamas.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Thanksgiving dinner 20% more expensive this year
NOV. 16, 2022 /
11:35 AM
Nov. 16 (UPI) -- With Thanksgiving just over a week away, the cost of providing
that holiday feast will cost more this year, according to a survey released on
Wednesday by the American Farm Bureau Federation.
On
average, feeding 10 people at a Thanksgiving table will cost 20% more than last
year, according to
the bureau's annual survey.
The
AFBF pegs the cost of a 10-person holiday meal at $64.05, or less than $6.50
per person.
That
figure equates to an overall $10.74 increase over last year's average cost of
$53.31, according to the survey.
For
survey purposes, an average Thanksgiving meal comes with turkey, stuffing,
sweet potatoes, rolls with butter, peas, cranberries, a veggie tray, pumpkin
pie with whipped cream, and coffee and milk in quantities sufficient to serve a
family of 10 with plenty for leftovers.
"General
inflation slashing the purchasing power of consumers is a significant factor
contributing to the increase in average cost of this year's Thanksgiving
dinner," AFBF Chief Economist Roger Cryan said in a news release.
"Other
contributing factors to the increased cost for the meal include supply chain
disruptions and the war in Ukraine. The higher retail turkey cost at the
grocery store can also be attributed to a slightly smaller flock this year,
increased feed costs and lighter processing weights."
The bureau
conducted its price check for the survey from Oct. 18-31, before most grocery
stores started stocking whole frozen turkeys at much lower prices, which would
affect the final number.
Frozen
turkey prices have dropped since the beginning of the month, according to the
Department of Agriculture's most-recent
national retail report.
The
average per-pound price for frozen turkeys dropped to 95 cents for the current
week, down from $1.11 the week of Nov. 3, representing a 14% drop.
More
Thanksgiving dinner 20% more expensive this year - UPI.com
Europe set for diesel
supply scramble as high prices expose tight markets
15
November, 2022
Europe could be scrambling for diesel supplies over the winter, with the continent increasingly exposed to “exceptionally tight markets,” warned the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The Paris-based climate group revealed diesel
prices surged to record highs last month, 70 per cent higher than this time
last year, dwarfing even the historic gains in crude oil.
Diesel is currently priced 425 per cent higher
than Brent Crude, which rose 11 per cent over the
same 12-month period and has been subjected to OPEC measures to tame prices.
This was creating further tensions in the
economy, and reflected both resilient demand and concerns over supply
shortages.
“High diesel prices are fuelling inflation,
adding pressure on the global economy and world oil demand,” said the IEA.
It predicts that when an EU embargo on imports
of diesel and other refined products from Russia is implemented in February,
the European market will tighten further.
This is because the competition for
non-Russian diesel barrels will be fierce, with EU countries having to bid
supplies from the US, Middle East and India away from their traditional buyers.
The IEA said: “Increased
refinery capacity will eventually help ease diesel tensions. However, until
then, if prices go too high, further demand destruction may be inevitable for
the market imbalances to clear.”
Europe’s diesel dilemma follows oil and gas cuts
By
October, EU countries had reduced Russian crude oil imports by 1.1 m barrels
per day (mb/d) to 1.4 mb/d, and diesel flows by 50 kb/d to 560 kb/d.
When
the crude and product embargoes come into full force in December and February,
respectively, the IEA expects an additional 1.1 mb/d of crude and 1 mb/d of
diesel, naphtha and fuel oil will have to be replaced.
Diesel
prices have been rising upwards for much of the year.
The
IEA highlighted that the fuel is not only a staple of economic activity, and
that supplies have dwindled amid French refinery strikes last month and
upcoming embargoes propelling diesel prices in Rotterdam, Europe’s main trading
hub.
Lower
Chinese product exports also tightened the market, with the country’s economy
rattled by its exhaustive zero-Covid approach to the pandemic.
Europe
has already been grappling with the possibility of gas shortages, racing to top
up storage levels to 95.6 per cent of capacity
ahead of winter – with multiple EU nations engaged
in rationing measures.
Meanwhile,
National Grid in its winter outlook has warned of blackouts as a worst-case
scenario in the UK this winter.
Europe set for diesel supply scramble as high prices expose tight markets (msn.com)
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
New
COVID-19 subvariants replace BA.5 as most dominant in U.S.
NOV. 16, 2022 /
4:01 PM
Nov. 16 (UPI) -- The COVID-19 BA.5 variant has lost its dominance in the
United States, according to the CDC. Two other variants -- BQ.1.1 and BQ.1 --
have replaced it.
The CDC data shows The new BQ.1.1 and BQ.1 together
account for roughly 44% of new U.S. COVID-19 infections. The new variants are
sublineages of BA.5. It's the first time since July that the BA.5 variant has
not been dominant.
According
to research from Dr. Shan-Lu Liu at Ohio State University, data suggests
mutations in the BQ subvariants are more effective at entering human cells. He
tweeted that the data on the new subvariants "raise new concerns."
While
these new variants may be able to more effectively infect human cells, data so
far indicates that vaccines and treatment should still work against them
overall, according to Johns
Hopkins University
virologist Andrew Pekosz.
Pekosz
said that since virtually all COVID-19 variants in the United States are
related to BA.5, the most recent bivalent vaccine should still increase
immunity to some extent.
Moderna said Monday that its new COVID-19 booster prototypes provide
"superior" protection against BA.4 and BA.5. And it said the new
vaccine booster also showed "neutralizing activity" against BQ.1.1.
Scientists
don't expect the new BQ COVID-19 subvariants to cause more severe disease.
These
latest COVID-19 subvariants drew attention
in October, when the CDC said
they had reached 10% of new COVID-19 infections. Scientists first named BQ.1 in
September.
New COVID-19 subvariants replace BA.5 as most dominant in U.S. - UPI.com
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine
Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19
vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Levidian to
deploy its methane-to-hydrogen and graphene technology in Scotland
By Charlie
Currieon Nov 15, 2022
As part of a new collaboration, Levidian’s methane-to-hydrogen and
graphene technology is set to be deployed in the UK for the first time, at
solutions business, Eco Group’s headquarters in Annan, Scotland.
H2 View understands Levidian will deploy its LOOP10 system which
uses a low-temperature, low-pressure process to crack methane into hydrogen and
carbon, without the need for catalysts and additives.
Read more: Why
Levidian’s LOOP technology is a ‘vital’ step forward for the hydrogen industry
According to the companies, demonstration system will feature
integrated hydrogen separation technology, which will see the clean fuel used
for R&D projects for hydrogen technology innovation across all sectors in
the UK, while Eco Group will look to distribute graphene as well as focus on
R&D applications for the use of graphene.
Following the initial deployment, Levidian says it has committed to
working with clients and partners to deploy more than 60 large LOOP1000 units
across Scotland and beyond over the next five years. The company says a single
LOOP1000 unit can cut up to 2,400 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent annually.
The project has received the backing of business and community
development agency, South of Scotland Enterprise (SOSE), with a grant of
£331,000 ($392,746).
----In August (2022), Levidian and
United Utilities announced they were set to received £212,000 of UK Government
funding to utilise biogas from wastewater treatment as a feedstock to produce
hydrogen and graphene through the Levedian LOOP process.
Read more: £212,000
of UK Government funding awarded to Levidian wastewater-to-hydrogen project
John Hartley, CEO of Levidian, said, “Levidian’s agreement with Eco
Group will see our first LOOP with fully integrated hydrogen separation
deployed in Scotland.
“LOOP will be a powerful tool for industrial decarbonisation and
fits in well with Scotland’s green ambitions – we’re looking forward to working
with Eco to deploy LOOPs and integrate graphene to help us drive towards Net
Zero.”
Levidian
to deploy its methane-to-hydrogen and graphene technology in Scotland
(h2-view.com)
Another
weekend and what a weekend we have. How many more dirty deeds will surface in
the FTX/Democrat criminal scandal? Will
Twitter croak over the weekend, probably not. But what is the value of a
company without a vital product or any real product or purpose at all? Answers
on postcards please to Chairman Musk, somewhere at Twitter/Tesla/Startrek?
Have
a great weekend everyone. Thanksgiving next and then my 73rd birthday. As a
commodity trader/gambler, I never thought I'd make it this far.
“Beyond
this, the problem is universal. It is that governments are now held responsible
for the welfare of the people. The aspirations of the people can outrun their
ability to pay for them, and nobody has yet found a way to create answers to
the aspirations out of thin air.”
George
Goodman, aka Adam Smith, The Money Game. 1968.
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