Friday, 11 November 2022

Inflation’s Over! No Really, No Kidding! It’s Official.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1390 -03     Brent Crude 95.17

Spot Gold 1762           US 2 Year Yield 4.34 -0.27

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 11/11/22 World 639,397,591

Deaths 6,611,943

 "Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one."

Charles MackayExtraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

Inflation, at least in the USA, is over, well according to the stock pedlars in the global stock casinos and President Dr. Biden.

Officially, US inflation in October came in at a mere 7.7 percent, down from September’s “official” 8.2 percent.

We’re saved, saved!! Let the good times roll on forever! Just look at the fall in the US 2 year T. Note yield. (Look away from the US yield curve, the rising oil price and collapsed cryptocurrency universe now.)

Who am I to remember that one swallow doesn’t make a summer, or that if the USA recorded inflation the way they did in the 1970s and early 80s, US inflation is actually running in the mid-double digits.

With boom times back, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell, interested parties please get in touch.

 

Hong Kong stocks briefly jump 7% as China trims quarantine period; U.S. inflation softer than expected

UPDATED FRI, NOV 11 2022 12:43 AM EST

Hong Kong stocks briefly jumped 7% as Chinese authorities announced to trim its quarantine period by two days. Shares in the Asia-Pacific also rose after the release of U.S. inflation data in October raised investor hopes that inflation has peaked.

The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 6.94% with the Hang Seng Tech index rising more than 8%. In mainland China, the Shenzhen Component added 2.52%, while the Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.72%.

The Nikkei 225 in Japan gained 2.98% and the Topix rose 2.07%. The Kospi in South Korea also rose 3.32% and the S&P/ASX 200 in Australia climbed 2.79%.

Softbank is slated to report its second quarter earnings later in the day and Hong Kong’s revised third quarter GDP is scheduled to be released.

Overnight on Wall Street, stocks saw their biggest rally in two years after October’s reading of consumer price index, which inched up just 0.4% for the month and 7.7% compared to last year, marking a lowest annual increase since January.

Currency check: Japanese yen, Chinese yuan at strengthened levels

The Japanese yen and Chinese yuan hovered around strengthened levels after the U.S. dollar index fell more than 1% overnight on a softer-than-expected inflation report.

The yen stood at 141.63 against the greenback, hovering around the strongest levels it’s seen in two months before weakening past 150 in October.

The onshore yuan was around 7.18, also trading near its strongest levels to the dollar in nearly a month.

Hong Kong stocks briefly jump 7% as China trims quarantine period; U.S. inflation softer than expected (cnbc.com)

China trims Covid quarantine time by two days

BEIJING — China reduced the quarantine time for international travelers by two days, state media said Friday.

Instead of making travelers stay at a centralized quarantine facility for seven days upon arrival in the country, the new rules stipulate a five day quarantine, followed by three days of home observation, according to state media.

The new timeframe also applied to close contacts of Covid infections within China, the report said.

In contact tracing, China said it will no longer track people beyond close contacts of Covid infections. Previously, people who were connected to those close contacts might face additional Covid restrictions.

The new measures reduced the number of regional risk designations to two from three — just low and high, the report said.

Overall, the new measures emphasized home quarantine instead of centralized quarantine.

The measures also ended a policy that often resulted in the number of international flights, already operating at reduced levels, getting canceled.

China trims Covid quarantine time by two days (cnbc.com)

Finally, just when you think inflation might be over and regular working people and pensioners might get a break, western politicians set out to put inflation on steroids.

 

Russia’s Oil Output Set To Fall By 1.5 Million Bpd In December

By Michael Kern - Nov 09, 2022, 11:00 AM CST

Russia’s oil production could drop to as low as 9 million barrels per day (bpd) in December when the EU embargo on imports of Russian crude oil enters into force, Russian news agency TASS reported on Wednesday, citing analysts at the Energy Development Center. “We expect that production in December will fall by 1.5-1.7 mln barrels per day compared to the June-October average, or 14%,” according to a report from the Energy Development Center cited by TASS.

 

The expected sharp drop in Russia’s oil production will lead to a spike in international oil prices, also considering that the OPEC+ group is reducing the target production as of November, the experts said.  

 

Russia’s oil production, excluding condensate, for October came in well below its production quota for the month, at just 9.9 million bpd, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said earlier this month.

 

Russia’s October production was 1.1 million bpd below its quota of 11 million bpd assigned under the OPEC+ agreement, but mostly in line with Novak’s estimates made last month. 

 

For November, Russia’s oil production quota under the OPEC+ pact will drop from 11 million bpd to 10.5 million bpd.

 

In October, Russian oil production, including condensate, was 1.47 million tons of oil per day, or 10.78 million bpd. The October production was slightly down from the 10.8 million bpd reported for September 

 

However, the production decline could accelerate from November as the EU prepares to introduce an embargo on imports of Russian crude from December 5, Russian business daily Kommersant reported at the end of October, quoting sources familiar with the situation.

 

Analysts have estimated that around 2 million bpd-3 million bpd of Russian oil and products may have to find new homes after the EU embargo enters into force. Russia has redirected a large part of its flows eastwards to Asia, but it may not be able to accommodate immediately and find willing buyers for the trade flows previously going to Europe, especially with the ban on services handling Russian oil cargoes unless the oil is sold at or below a certain price cap.  

Russia’s Oil Output Set To Fall By 1.5 Million Bpd In December | OilPrice.com

"Nations, like individuals, cannot become desperate gamblers with impunity. Punishment is sure to overtake them sooner or later."

Charles MackayExtraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Energy Bills In Europe Are 90% Higher Than Last Year

By Irina Slav - Nov 08, 2022, 1:02 AM CST

Electricity and gas prices are soaring across Europe, with bills close to double from last year in most European capitals, according to new data from the Household Energy Price Index—a monthly tracker of energy prices for households across 33 European capitals, including the 27 EU member states and several non-members.

 

According to the data collected for the HEPI, natural gas bills in Europe have gone up by as much as 111 percent over the past year, with electricity prices up by an average of 69 percent. Taken together, Euronews calculates these two make for a total 90-percent increase in household energy bills over the past year.

 

"Significantly higher [energy prices] compared to one year ago ... can be attributed to a combination of factors, such as increased demand connected to post-pandemic economic recovery and extraordinary weather conditions, the record-high prices for natural gas, and high CO2 emissions allowances," the authors of the latest HEPI report noted.

The high energy bills are creating headaches for European governments: strikes and protests are multiplying and disgruntlement with energy policies is growing. The cost of living in most of Europe is already exorbitant because of the energy crisis and this crisis is only going to get worse after the EU embargoes on Russian oil and then fuels come into effect.

 

In some parts of Europe, according to the latest HEPI report, energy prices have reached record highs but in others, prices have actually fallen, at least in October. The news is not as good as it looks at first glance: the decline was a result of government intervention, i.e. energy subsidies.

There have been a lot of subsidies as European governments try to alleviate the financial pain on households and businesses to avoid further disgruntlement. Germany alone will be spending some $200 billion on such coping measures, including a cap on energy prices up to a certain level of consumption.

Energy Bills In Europe Are 90% Higher Than Last Year | OilPrice.com

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.  

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end. 

Why Pi is the next Covid variant on every scientist’s lips

As coronavirus circulates in a blizzard of omicron sub-variants, experts fear more virulent strains could be on the horizon

The third anniversary of the emergence of an obscure new coronavirus in the Chinese city of Wuhan is coming up fast.

An outbreak that first made just a few sentences on the foreign pages, quickly burgeoned into a global pandemic that upended almost every aspect of life and still has profound repercussions.

More than 16 million people are estimated to have died worldwide during the first two years, with trillions of pounds spent, economies battered and millions of jobs lost.

 

Thankfully, for all the disruption, the past year has seen a return to normal life, for many at least, as the world desperately tries to put the pandemic behind it.

Yet major questions still remain. Is the world past the worst of Covid-19? Are more virulent variants brewing in the pipeline? Will a successor to the dominant omicron variant, for which the Greek letter Pi is reserved, eventually emerge? If so, will existing immunity from vaccines and earlier infections hold this new version of the virus at bay?

These were the conundrums preoccupying some of the world's leading Covid virologists, epidemiologists, immunologists and public health experts as they gathered last week in an eco-lodge on the east coast of South Africa.

The gathering, hosted by Durban's Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI), drew academics and researchers from across the continent, as well as the UK, US, Japan, Singapore and Australia. Many were meeting face-to-face for the first time, after nearly three years of Zoom call collaboration trying to understand the pandemic during the depths of lockdown.

The high death tolls of 2020 and 2021 may have subsided, but the coronavirus is still circulating widely in a blizzard of omicron sub-variants.

 

South Africa's years of expertise in tracking the HIV virus has meant the country has latterly been at the forefront of spotting new coronavirus variants such as these.

 

Omicron and its bewildering alphabet soup of descendents seem to have turned out to be mild, at least compared to their viral predecessors, and at the same time a mixture of vaccinations and earlier infections are credited with giving most people protection against severe disease.

 

Back to square one?

That had bred a mood of cautious optimism among the attendees. But for many at the gathering, one of the most pressing topics was whether a major new variant, set to be called Pi, might arise which could put us back to square one.

More

Why Pi is the next Covid variant on every scientist’s lips (telegraph.co.uk)

AstraZeneca drops plans for Covid jab approval in US

November 10, 2022

Drugs giant AstraZeneca has abandoned plans to seek approval for its Covid-19 jab in the US as it revealed falling sales of the vaccine worldwide.

The Anglo-Swedish group, which developed the Vaxzevria vaccine with Oxford University, revealed in its third-quarter results that it would drop an application with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in the US and instead focus its efforts elsewhere globally, including for its use as a booster.

The group’s figures showed that demand is waning for the Covid jab – which was one of the first to be developed worldwide – with sales of Vaxzevria dropping to 173 million US dollars (£152 million) in its third quarter from 1.05 billion US dollars (£922 billion) a year earlier.

The vaccine was quickly approved for use in the UK, Europe and elsewhere worldwide, but not in the US, where regulators wanted more data.

AstraZeneca had planned to go for full approval from the FDA, but the firm’s boss said the application had become overly complicated and “very large”.

The group said: “As the primary vaccination needs of the US are being met already, AstraZeneca has decided that it will not submit a biologics licence application for Vaxzevria in the US.

“The company will continue to focus its efforts on ensuring availability of Vaxzevria elsewhere around the world, including submissions for its use as a booster.”

The firm has mostly distributed its Covid vaccine on a not-for-profit basis, and it has been widely used in developing countries, with three billion doses sold worldwide so far.

While demand for the jab is tailing off, its other coronavirus treatment – a preventive antibody therapy called Evusheld – is seeing solid sales.

It notched up 537 million US dollars (£471 million) in sales of Evusheld, which is targeted at people with weakened immune systems, in the third quarter after gaining approval for emergency use in the US in December last year.

AstraZeneca’s results on Thursday also showed the group increasing its earnings outlook thanks to a better-than-expected performance so far this year.

It said core earnings per share could grow by a “high 20s to low 30s percentage”, against its previous guidance of a mid-to-high 20s increase thanks to strong demand for drugs such as Farxiga for diabetes and Tagrisso for cancer.

The company saw third-quarter pre-tax profits jump to 922 million US dollars (£810 million) from losses of 2 billion US dollars (£1.8 billion) a year ago on better-than-expected revenues of 11 billion US dollars (£9.7 billion), up 19% year on year.

AstraZeneca drops plans for Covid jab approval in US (msn.com)

Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Trackerhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine trackerhttps://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Graphene Oxide (GO) Market 2022-2026 Is Booming Worldwide With Comprehensive Study Explores Huge Revenue Scope In Future

Published: Nov. 10, 2022 at 12:54 a.m. ET

The MarketWatch News Department was not involved in the creation of this content.

 

Nov 10, 2022 (The Expresswire) -- Pre and Post Covid is Covered and Report Customization is Available.

 

"Graphene Oxide (GO) Market" Insights 2022 | By Types (Powder-based graphene oxide, Solution based graphene oxide), Applications (Medical, Energy, Electronic devices, Composites materials, Catalytic oxidation, Others), By Segmentation, Regions and Forecast to 2026. The Global Graphene Oxide (GO) Market Report provides In-depth analysis on the market status of the Graphene Oxide (GO) Top manufacturers with best facts and figures, meaning, Definition, SWOT and PESTAL analysis, expert opinions and the latest developments across the globe., the Graphene Oxide (GO) Market Report contains Full TOC, Tables and Figures, and Chart with Key Analysis, Pre and Post COVID-19 Market Outbreak Impact Analysis and Situation by Regions.

 

“Graphene Oxide (GO) market revenue was Million USD in 2016, grew to Million USD in 2020, and will reach Million USD in 2026, with a CAGR of % during review period.” Ask for Sample Report

 

Global Bone Conduction Headphones Market Report 2022 is spread across 110 pages and provides exclusive vital statistics, data, information, trends and competitive landscape details in this niche sector.

 

Who are some of the key players operating in the Graphene Oxide (GO) market and how high is the competition 2022?

Company Information: List by Country Top Manufacturers/ Key Players In Graphene Oxide (GO) Market Insights Report Are:

More

Graphene Oxide (GO) Market 2022-2026 Is Booming Worldwide With Comprehensive Study Explores Huge Revenue Scope In Future - MarketWatch

Another weekend and which crypto/currency/exchange/coin/scheme will blow up this weekend? How many will still be left by Christmas and what, if any, value will remain?

How long will the stock casinos inflation relief rally last in the face of our new global recession arriving and the G-7 about to shoot itself in both feet next month by forcing a decline in Russian oil supply? Have a great weekend everyone.

"Let us not, in the pride of our superior knowledge, turn with contempt from the follies of our predecessors. The study of the errors into which great minds have fallen in the pursuit of truth can never be uninstructive. As the man looks back to the days of his childhood and his youth, and recalls to his mind the strange notions and false opinions that swayed his actions at the time, that he may wonder at them; so should society, for its edification, look back to the opinions which governed ages that fled."


Charles MackayExtraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

No comments:

Post a Comment