Baltic Dry Index. 1355 -35 Brent Crude 95.99
Spot Gold 1771 U S 2 Year Yield 4.34 -0.27 Thurs. Closed Fri.
If all
else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error.
John Kenneth
Galbraith.
In
the stock casinos, euphoria. The Great Grizzly Bear is dead. The boom times are
back. Party like it’s 2009-2019 again!
Well
maybe, but not so fast. Who buys stocks,
or real estate, or much of anything else, at the start of what looks like a
very nasty arriving global recession?
The
Great Disconnect is back but not for long, I think.
In
Cryptoland, a Bernie Madoff repeat?
Nasdaq adds 1.9%, S&P 500 closes nearly 1% higher
and notches best week since June
UPDATED FRI, NOV 11 2022 5:53 PM
EST
The S&P
500 closed out its best week since June as a report on Thursday showing slowing
inflation raised hopes that the Federal Reserve would soon slow its tightening
campaign.
The broader market index added
0.9%, to close at 3,992.93. This brought its gain for the week to 5.9%, its
best week since the one ended June 24 of this year. The Nasdaq Composite added
about 1.9% to end at 11,323.33 as investors snapped up tech shares on hopes
interest rates would ease. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.1%,
closing at 33,747.86.
Tech stocks on Friday shook off a
decline in cryptocurrencies. Virtual currencies tumbled sharply this week and
once again came under pressure Friday after FTX filed
for bankruptcy protection, and CEO Sam Bankman-Fried resigned.
Bitcoin and ether both declined.
Still, tech stocks and related
crypto stocks rebounded after opening lower Friday. The tech sector in the
S&P 500 surged 10% through Friday, its best weekly performance since April
2020. Amazon was up more than 4% on Friday, while Google-parent Alphabet was
2.6% higher.
The Dow jumped more than 1,200 points on
Thursday following a smaller-than-expected
rise in consumer prices for the month of October, giving
investors hope that inflation may be cooling. The S&P rose 5.5%, and the
Nasdaq Composite surged about 7.4%. It was the best day since 2020 for all
three indexes.
Treasury yields plunged Thursday
on the back of the weaker-than-expected inflation print. The bond market was
closed on Friday to observe Veterans Day.
“From an equity market
perspective, as long as the threat of much higher rates is out the way, this
should remove a major headwind,” Barclays’ head of European equity strategy
Emmanuel Cau wrote in a Friday note.
All of the indexes posted a
winning week. The Dow was up 4.1% on a weekly basis, while the Nasdaq Composite
advanced 8.1%. The week marked a resumption of a comeback rally for the bear
market, which began in mid-October
Nasdaq
adds 1.9%, S&P 500 closes nearly 1% higher and notches best week since June
(cnbc.com)
FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried lost billions and the
company filed for bankruptcy—it could signal the ‘demise’ of crypto, expert
says
FTX, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency
exchange platforms, is in major financial turmoil.
At its peak, FTX was valued at
$32 billion. The company filed for bankruptcy on
Nov. 11 after competing offshore crypto exchange, Binance, backed out of a deal
to acquire it and users withdrew around $6 billion in
funds.
FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried, who often goes by SBF, stepped down as CEO on Friday.
He saw his estimated net worth drop by billions virtually overnight as his
cryptocurrency exchange platform teeters on the brink of collapse.
Between Nov. 8-9, Bankman-Fried’s net worth
plummeted to $991.5 million. That’s around a 94% drop from his estimated $15.2
billion previously, according to a Bloomberg
analysis.
“The fall of FTX could be the
moment that really kicks off the broader decline — maybe even demise — of
cryptocurrency,” James Royal, principal reporter at Bankrate, tells CNBC Make
It.
What happened?
Binance CEO
Changpeng Zhao, commonly known as CZ, initially invested in FTX in 2019, but
later sold his controlling stake in 2021, Reuters reports.
Zhao was paid
about $2.1 billion worth of FTT, the native crypto token that gives
users access to the FTX trading platform.
Here’s why that matters: A leaked balance sheet
revealed that the value of Bankman-Fried’s crypto trading firm, Alameda
Research, was heavily reliant on the value of FTT, according to Coindesk.
So when Zhao
announced on Nov. 6 that his company would liquidate any remaining FTT it held
due to “recent revelations,” it triggered fears among investors that FTX would
be unable to pay its debts.
Many began to
withdraw their funds, which led to a stark 72% drop in FTT’s price. As FTT’s
price fell, so did the value of FTX’s assets that were tied to it.
What happens to crypto
traders on the FTX platform if it collapses?
“The first thing
traders need to do now is understand the legal duty that an exchange has to
them, and whether their assets are held securely,” Royal says.
Like many other
crypto exchanges, FTX’s insurance coverage only addresses certain criminal
events such as theft or fraud, Martin Leinweber, digital asset product
strategist at MarketVector Indexes, tells CNBC Make it.
“There is no
insurance coverage just because the exchange fails,” he says. “If there’s no
bailout, depositors in FTX could lose everything.”
How will FTX’s downfall affect crypto prices?
In short, it
doesn’t look good. “The events shook the broader cryptocurrency markets,
sending bitcoin and other currencies to two-year lows,” Leinweber says.
Bitcoin’s
price hovered around $17,000 as of Nov. 11, down from above
$20,000 on Nov. 8 and well below the peak
price of around $68,000 it reached in November 2021.
“With the
exception of so-called stablecoins, crypto prices are supported entirely by
belief in their future, not by any fundamental underpinning such as assets or
cash flow,” Royal says.
That means
crypto’s value solely depends on what someone is willing to pay for it, which
is why its price can be subject to erratic fluctuations and dips.
“Crypto has been
seen as a lottery ticket, and hypesters have been pumping crypto for years,”
Royal says. “Unfortunately, it usually takes massive losses for the scales to
fall from traders’ eyes.”
FTX's
Sam Bankman-Fried lost billionaire status, filed bankruptcy (cnbc.com)
EXCLUSIVE At least $1 billion of client funds missing at failed crypto firm FTX – sources
November 12, 2022 3:36
AM GMT
New York, Nov 11 (Reuters) - At least $1 billion of
customer funds have vanished from collapsed crypto exchange FTX, according to
two people familiar with the matter.
The exchange's founder Sam Bankman-Fried secretly
transferred $10 billion of customer funds from FTX to Bankman-Fried's trading
company Alameda Research, the people told Reuters.
A large portion of that total has since
disappeared, they said. One source put the missing amount at about $1.7
billion. The other said the gap was between $1 billion and $2 billion.
While it is known that FTX moved customer funds to
Alameda, the missing funds are reported here for the first time.
The financial hole was revealed in records that
Bankman-Fried shared with other senior executives last Sunday, according to the
two sources. The records provided an up-to-date account of the situation at the
time, they said. Both sources held senior FTX positions until this week and
said they were briefed on the company's finances by top staff.
More
EXCLUSIVE
At least $1 billion of client funds missing at failed crypto firm FTX – sources
| Reuters
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
Euro zone bond market flashes
recession signal
November
11, 2022
LONDON (Reuters) -The euro zone government bond market on Friday
delivered the clearest sign yet that Germany, the region's largest economy,
could be on the verge of a recession, as short-dated yields rose sharply.
Global bond yields plummeted on Thursday after data showed U.S. consumer
inflation rose by much less than expected last month, which could offer the
Federal Reserve some room to slow down the pace at which it plans to raise
interest rates.
In Europe, data on Friday showed harmonised inflation in Germany, the
euro zone's biggest economy, rose at a rate of 11.6% in October, its highest
since reunification in 1990, due in large part to spiralling food and energy
costs. Separate reports this week have forecast a steep drop in consumer
spending.
Yields on the benchmark 10-year Bund rose by 15 basis points (bps),
their largest one-day rise since late September, to trade around 2.153%.
Those on the two-year Schatz rose as much as 17 bps to a high of 2.15%,
briefly pushing above those for 10-year debt. This inversion can often herald
the onset of a recession.
"There is a widening acceptance that we're going to be seeing
Germany in particular, but also the euro zone heading into recession in the
first quarter of next year," StoneX strategist Fiona Cincotta said.
"All the signals are out there," she said.
The gap between two- and 10-year yields has
only inverted on a handful of occasions in the last 20 years and only ever by a
fraction, with the exception of the run-up to the financial crisis in 2008,
when it turned negative by as much as 23 bps.
----Yet
Europe's energy crisis is forcing governments to spend big to protect consumers
and businesses, meaning more bond supply will hit the markets in the coming
months. That complicates the ECB's efforts to tighten credit conditions to
bring inflation back towards its 2% target from around five times that level
currently.
Yields on Italian 10-year bonds rose 20 bps to 4.204%. Italy is one of
the euro zone's larger, more indebted members. The closely watched gap between
German and Italian 10-year yields earlier reached its narrowest since July, at
197.2 bps.
Analysts said the outlook for Italian bonds was less favourable as the
ECB was expected to formalise plans to begin selling part of its bond holdings,
so-called quantitative tightening (QT), next year.
"We're struggling to see how ECB QT doesn't see Italian bonds
suffer," Rabobank senior rates strategist Lyn Graham-Taylor said.
"The fact we're going into what we believe will be a fairly large
recession, we struggle to see how Italian bonds don't suffer during that
process," she added.
More
Euro
zone bond market flashes recession signal (msn.com)
EU expects recession to hit Europe
as inflation hangs on
The
European Union’s executive commission slashed its forecast for economic growth
next year
November
11, 2022
The European Union's executive commission slashed its forecast
for economic growth next year, saying the 19 countries that use the euro
currency will slide into recession over the winter as peak inflation hangs on
for longer than expected and high fuel and heating costs erode consumer
purchasing power.
The European Commission's autumn forecast released Friday predicts falling economic
output in the last three months of this year and the first months of 2023. It
says high energy prices, a rising cost of living, higher interest rates and
overall uncertainty “are expected to tip the EU, the euro area and most member
states into recession in the last quarter of the year.”
The growth forecast for all
of 2023 was lowered to 0.3% from 1.4% expected in the previous forecast from
July.
“Growth is expected to return
to Europe in spring, as inflation gradually relaxes its grip on the economy,” the
report said. “However, with powerful headwinds still holding back demand,
economic activity is set to be subdued.”
The worst performer next year
is likely to be Germany, Europe's largest economy and one of the most dependent
on Russian natural gas before the war in Ukraine. Gas and electricity prices have soared as Russia has
dialed back supplies to Europe to a mere trickle of what they were before the
invasion of Ukraine.
Germany was expected to see output shrink by 0.6%
over the next year.
Inflation will peak later than expected, near the
end of the year, and will lift the average rate to 8.5% for 2022 and to 6.1%
for 2023 in the eurozone. That is an upward revision of nearly 1 percentage
point for 2022 and more than 2 points for 2023.
Two consecutive quarters of falling output is one
common definition of recession, although the economists on the eurozone
business cycle dating committee use a broader set of data including employment
figures.
The commission indicated the job market was likely
to hold up relatively well despite shrinking output over the winter,
forecasting an increase in the unemployment rate from 6.8% this year to 7.2%
next and a decrease to 7% in 2024.
EU expects
recession to hit Europe as inflation hangs on | The Independent
BoE will need to raise rates to 4.75% to bring down inflation
- NIESR
November
11, 2022
LONDON (Reuters) - The
Bank of England will probably need to raise interest rates to 4.75% in order to
bring inflation back to its 2% target, something only likely to be achieved in
three years' time, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research said.
Last week, the BoE
raised Bank Rate to 3% as it sought to counter the risks from an inflation rate
currently running above 10%, but it also said investors were pricing in too
many further increases.
BoE will need to
raise rates to 4.75% to bring down inflation - NIESR (msn.com)
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
This weekend, something a little different. Have we got cancer all wrong?
Expert Explains Cancer May Be Metabolic Disease, and Shares a Cure
Nov 8 2022
“Cancer is not a genetic disease,
it’s a metabolic disease,” Thomas N. Seyfried, a well-known
scholar in cancer research and a Professor of Biology at Boston
College, told The Epoch Times. “Once people understand that cancer is a
metabolic disease, then you will begin to see a very big reduction in death and
greatly improved quality of life and survival.”
Cancer Has Remained High for Decades
According to the statistics of the
American Cancer Society, although the incidence of cancer in the United States
has been declining slowly since the beginning of the 21st century, if we look
at it over an extended period of time, we will find that the incidence of
cancer is actually increasing, not decreasing.
In 1975,
approximately 400 out of every 100,000 Americans had cancer. By 2018, that
number had grown to roughly 445, an increase of more than 10 percent [1].
Cancer May Not Be a Genetic Disease
“Why are so many people dying from
cancer?” Seyfried asked. “Because the theory is wrong. The theory that
underlies cancer is incorrect.”
Cancer is still
generally considered a genetic disorder. Medical textbooks use somatic mutation
theory to explain the cause of cancer. These textbooks state that cancer is
caused by mutations in proto-oncogenes or tumor suppressor genes [4], and the
mutated cells then multiply indefinitely and form malignant tumors. However,
Seyfried mentioned a number of facts in this interview and in his published
research [5] that are inconsistent with the above theory:
More
Expert Explains Cancer May Be Metabolic Disease, and
Shares a Cure (theepochtimes.com)
Covid infections in the UK plummet by 21 percent in a week in
first fall in all four nations in three months
11
November, 2022
Covid infections have
fallen 21 per cent week-on-week in a sign that the autumn wave may be beginning
to fade.
All four UK nations experienced a drop for in cases
for the first time since mid-August, the Office for National Statistics said.
The total number of people in private households in
the UK testing positive for the virus stood at 1.5 million in the week to
November 1, down from 1.9 million in the previous week, according to the
figures.
Around one in 40 people in England tested positive
during the period, the figures showed. This is down from one in 35 last week.
An estimated 2.2 per cent of the population in
London received a positive result - down 0.4 on the previous week.
World
Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
The Spectator
Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
IBM
reveals Osprey, the world's most powerful quantum computer
Michael Irving November 09, 2022
IBM has unveiled the most powerful quantum processor in the world – the
Osprey, which boasts a massive 433 quantum bits (qubits). The new chip
headlines a raft of advances in quantum computers that the company has announced,
as it prepares for a massive leap next year.
While
they’ve served us well for decades, traditional computers are increasingly
paling in comparison to those young upstarts, quantum computers. Where the
former stores and processes data in binary bits, as zeroes and ones, the latter
uses qubits that can be zero, one or both at the same time. This exponentially
raises the processing power for each added qubit, allowing them to potentially
perform calculations that are impossible
for conventional computers.
With the power of 433 qubits,
IBM’s Osprey is the most advanced quantum processor in the world by a large
margin. It packs twice as many qubits as the previous record-holder – Xanadu’s
Borealis, which was tested with 216
qubits – and over three times more than IBM’s
own Eagle, announced last year, which
packed 127 qubits.
The Osprey has a similar
architecture to its forebear, being comprised of a single layer of qubits atop
several layers of control wiring, which helps cram more qubits in while
reducing their error rate. An integrated filtering system has now been added,
which helps reduce noise and improve stability of the device.
----As impressive as this
year’s updates are, IBM is looking to next year as the real turning point. The
company’s roadmap says that next year’s quantum processor, the Condor, will
boast a stunning 1,121 qubits. Also on the cards is a modular processor called
the Heron, which can stack multiple 133-qubit units together to make more
powerful quantum processors.
More
IBM reveals Osprey,
the world's most powerful quantum computer (newatlas.com)
This weekend’s music diversion. Approx. 4 minutes.
Vivaldi:
Concerto in F major for Violin, 2 oboes, 2 horns, cello, bassoon & strings
RV 571 - 3....
This
weekend’s chess update. Approx. 10 minutes.
Is
Magnus Carlsen OF THIS WORLD ?? Crushes Super GM With Alien Chess Moves
Is Magnus Carlsen
OF THIS WORLD ?? Crushes Super GM With Alien Chess Moves - YouTube
This
week’s maths update. Approx. 5 minutes.
The mathematical secrets
of Pascal’s triangle - Wajdi Mohamed Ratemi
The mathematical secrets of Pascal’s triangle - Wajdi Mohamed Ratemi - YouTube
There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history
counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent
that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those
who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the
present.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
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