Baltic Dry Index. 1337 +14 Brent Crude 97.52
Spot Gold 1670 US 2 Year Yield 4.72 +0.06
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 08/11/22 World 638,098,348
Deaths 6,607,106
“The best
argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average
voter.”
In the stock casinos, mild optimism that whatever the outcome of today’s US elections, it’s only going to be bullish for stocks.
Well maybe but maybe not.
I have my doubts that neither the Democrats nor Republicans can stop a new global recession from rolling over planet Earth.
Any bull run in stocks in the closing weeks of 2022 is likely to be just another bull run in our new bear market. More of an exit rally than an early entry point for a new bull market in stocks.
Asia-Pacific
stocks mostly rise ahead of U.S. midterm elections
NOV 7 2022 11:39 PM EST
Stocks in
the Asia-Pacific traded mostly higher early Tuesday morning as investors digest
the Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions and look ahead to the U.S. midterm
elections.
The Nikkei 225 in
Japan rose 1.43% and the Topix was also 1.38% higher. The S&P/ASX 200 rose
0.37% in Australia. In South Korea, the Kospi gained 1.06%.
The Bank of Japan released a
summary of opinions of board members from its monetary
policy meeting in October, when it left interest rates
unchanged while global peers took on jumbo rate hikes. Nintendo will
report quarterly earnings later in the day.
The Hang Seng index in
Hong Kong was fractionally lower after struggling for direction, while mainland
China’s Shanghai Composite fell
0.52% and the Shenzhen
Component was also down 0.745%.
Overnight in the U.S., stocks rallied Monday as
investors looked ahead to a packed week with midterm
elections and key inflation data on deck and shrugged off a
supply warning from Apple.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
traded higher by 423.78 points, or 1.31%, to 32,827.00. The S&P 500 gained
0.96% to 3,806.80. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.85% to 10,564.52, after trading
between gains and losses earlier in the session. All three major averages
notched a second straight positive day.
Asia-Pacific stocks mostly rise ahead of U.S. midterm elections (cnbc.com)
European markets
head for mixed open ahead of U.S. midterm elections
UPDATED TUE, NOV 8 2022 12:36 AM EST
European
markets are heading for a mixed open on Tuesday as global investors look to the
United States, where midterm
elections are taking place.
The elections will determine
which party will control Congress and could affect the direction of future
spending. Democrats currently control the House, and have a majority in the
Senate. A Republican sweep could signal
greater support of oil and gas companies.
Investors are also looking ahead to
Thursday’s U.S. consumer price index report, which will give further insight
into the Federal Reserve’s efforts to squash inflation. A hot inflation report
could signal to investors that a pivot from higher interest rates, for longer,
could be further away than expected.
Stocks
in the Asia-Pacific traded mostly higher early Tuesday morning
while U.S.
stock futures were flat Monday evening following a positive day
for markets stateside.
European markets open to close;
U.S. midterm elections watched closely (cnbc.com)
Stock futures
flat as Wall Street awaits U.S. midterm elections
UPDATED MON, NOV 7 202211:36 PM EST
Stock
futures were flat Monday evening following a winning day for markets as
investors looked ahead to U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial average rose 4 points or 0.01%, erasing earlier gains. S&P 500
futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were both fractionally lower. Shares of Lyft
fell 13% while Take-Two Interactive and Tripadvisor slumped more than 15% each
after reporting disappointing quarterly results.
The moves come after a day when
all major indexes notched a second straight positive session. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average closed higher by 423.78 points, or 1.31%. Meanwhile, the
S&P 500 gained 0.96%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.85%.
Investors are awaiting Tuesday’s
midterm election results. They will determine which party controls Congress and
steer future policy and spending.
Any market reaction will likely
hinge on whether Republicans take back the House of Representatives, the Senate
or both.
“The idea that [Republicans are]
going to take back the house is pretty much baked into the market,” said Lori
Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets on CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Monday. “I’m not
saying it won’t be a good thing, that we won’t have a few days of feeling good
or that it won’t provide some stability, but I think for a big kicker in the
S&P they need to take back the Senate as well.”
Wall Street will also closely
watch Thursday’s consumer price index report for the latest data on how much
the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have tamed high inflation. This
reading could also signal the central bank’s path forward – another
hotter-than-anticipated report could embolden the Fed to raise rates
aggressively in December.
Earnings season continues this
week. On Tuesday, Lordstown Motors, Lucid Group, Walt Disney and AMC Entertainment all
report their latest quarterly results.
Stock futures flat as Wall Street awaits U.S. midterm elections (cnbc.com)
In other news, the wrong sort of wealth
effect hits Britain and China. Nothing good lies this way I suspect.
Home
sellers in for a shock as house prices drop across UK and overall growth slows
MONDAY 07 NOVEMBER 2022 7:09 AM
House prices across Britain recorded the biggest
monthly fall in October since early 2021, according to an index out this a.m.
The average property value fell by 0.4 per cent,
marking the third month-on-month drop seen in the past four months, Halifax
said.
The latest month-on-month decrease follows monthly
falls of 0.1 per cent in both July and September and a 0.3 per cent increase in
August.
Annual house price growth slowed to 8.3 per cent
in October, from 9.8 per cent growth recorded in September.
Just under £300k
Across the UK, the average house price in October
was £292,598, which was the lowest figure since May this year, although typical
prices remained near record highs, Halifax said.
Annual price growth among home movers fell to 8.9
per cent in October, from 10.3 per cent in September.
The price growth slowdown for first-time buyers
was more notable, Halifax said, slowing from 10.1 per cent in September to 7.5
per cent in October.
Given the greater challenges for first-time buyers
in deposit-raising, plus tighter requirements for higher loan-to-value
mortgages, the faster slowdown in prices is not surprising, Halifax said.
Kim Kinnaird, director of Halifax Mortgages, said:
“The drop of 0.4 per cent is the sharpest we have seen since February 2021,
taking the typical property price to a five-month low of £292,598.
“Though the recent period of rapid house price
inflation may now be at an end, it’s important to keep this in context, with
average property prices rising more than £22,000 in the past 12 months, and by
almost £60,000 (25.7 per cent) over the last three years, which is significant.
More
Home sellers in
for a shock as house prices drop across UK and overall growth slows
(cityam.com)
China's
super-rich see fortunes plunge as economy slows
November 8, 2022 2:11
AM GMTL
Nov 8 (Reuters) -
China's super-rich saw their wealth tumble by the most in over two decades this
year, as the Russia-Ukraine war, Beijing's zero-COVID measures and falling
mainland and Hong Kong stock markets pummelled fortunes, an annual rich list
said on Tuesday.
The
Hurun Rich list, which ranks China's wealthiest people with a minimum net worth
of 5 billion yuan ($692 million), said only 1,305 people made the mark this
year, down 11% from last year. Their total wealth was $3.5 trillion, down 18%.
Meanwhile, the
number of individuals with $10 billion fell by 29 to 56, and the number of
dollar billionaires dropped by 239 to 946 this year, it added.
"This
year has seen the biggest fall in the Hurun China Rich List of the last 24
years," said Rupert Hoogewerf, chairman and chief researcher of research
firm Hurun Report which compiles the list.
The global
economic outlook has this year been heavily impacted by the war in Ukraine and
slowing economic growth in China that has in turn been exacerbated by the
country's ultra-strict COVID policies and a prolonged property slump.
A
two-year regulatory crackdown that has hit China's biggest tech names such as
Alibaba Group (9988.HK) and Tencent Holdings (0700.HK), and concerns that President Xi
Jinping will sacrifice growth for ideology in his third term, have also weighed
on investor confidence, with Hong Kong and mainland stock markets tumbling in
recent weeks.
More
China's
super-rich see fortunes plunge as economy slows | Reuters
Oil
prices fall as China demand, recession concerns outweigh supply woes
November 8, 2022 4:55
AM GMT
SINGAPORE, Nov 8
(Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Tuesday as recession concerns and worsening
COVID-19 outbreaks in China sparked fears of lower fuel demand, outweighing
supply worries.
Brent
crude fell 31 cents, or 0.3%, to $97.61 a barrel by 0434 GMT, while U.S. West
Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 36 cents, or 0.4%, to $91.43 a barrel.
Both
benchmarks hit their highest since August on Monday amid reports that leaders
in China, the world's top crude importer, were weighing an exit from the country's
strict COVID-19 restrictions.
However, Chinese
health officials over the weekend reaffirmed China's commitment to its
strict zero-COVID policy. Also, recent data showed the country's exports and imports unexpectedly
contracted in October.
COVID
cases sharply escalated in Guangzhou and other major Chinese cities,
official data showed on Tuesday. The global manufacturing hub is fighting its
worst flare-up ever, testing its ability to avoid a Shanghai-style citywide
lockdown.
"I think the
rolling lockdowns, not to mention doubling down on zero-COVID over the weekend,
are not only roiling the long-positioned oil market but they continue to push
back the reopening narrative negatively for oil prices," said Stephen
Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.
A
firmer greenback also weighed on oil prices. Oil is generally priced in U.S.
dollars, so a stronger greenback makes the commodity more expensive to holders
of other currencies.
Market
participants will be eyeing the U.S. CPI data this week for trading cues, CMC
Markets analyst Tina Teng said.
"On the back
of sticky inflation and rising interest rates in major western countries, oil
futures are still pricing in the possibility of a global economic
recession," said Teng.
"This,
along with a slowdown in China fuel demand, are reasons for the pull-back in
oil futures prices in the past few months."
But
the near-term fundamentals for oil remain bullish, with the focus returning to
supply issues, ANZ Research analysts said.
"The
market is facing the deadline for European imports of Russian oil before
sanctions kick in," ANZ added.
The
European Union ban on Russian oil, imposed in retaliation for Russia's invasion
of Ukraine, is set to start on Dec. 5 and will be followed by a halt on oil
product imports in February. Moscow calls its actions in Ukraine "a
special operation".
More
Oil
prices fall as China demand, recession concerns outweigh supply woes | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Analysis:
Runaway prices have central Europe on the ropes
November 7, 2022
6:08 AM GMT
BUDAPEST/WARSAW,
Nov 7 (Reuters) - While inflation in western Europe is largely expected to be
tamed within a year, there is a growing sense that in central Europe runaway
prices will be around for much longer.
Central and
eastern Europe have for months been at the forefront of the inflation battle,
ahead of the curve both in terms of the acceleration of price pressures and the
sometimes uneven efforts of
its central banks to curb them.
The latest
inflation readings in the region ranged from nearly 16% in Romania to just over
20% in Hungary, way above central bank target bands ranging from 1% to 4%.
Hungarian bread
and cheese prices rose by around 70% year-on-year in September while sugar
prices in Poland have jumped 50% with some shops running low in the summer on
hoarding in anticipation of more price rises.
With unions
bargaining for strong wage hikes to retain purchasing power and companies
hiking prices to protect profit margins, the risks are rising that a looming
economic slowdown will not curb inflation to the extent central bankers hope.
"The longer
inflation and wage pressures remain so strong, the greater is the risk that
higher interest rates and sharp rises in unemployment are needed to weaken
demand and restore price stability," Capital Economics' Emerging Europe
Economist Nicholas Farr said.
The credibility
of the region's central banks was tested last month when a plunge in the forint
forced the National Bank of Hungary into an emergency rate rise weeks
after it tried to end rate hikes with inflation still on the rise.
Poland's dovish
majority in the central bank is also suggesting an end to rate hikes as growth
is expected to slow strongly in 2023, but keeping inflation in check may be
difficult with the government looking to spend ahead of a national election.
Inflation
expectations are de-anchoring from central bank targets, UniCredit CEE Chief
Economist Dan Bucsa said
Bucsa pointed to
front-loaded consumer spending in the first nine months of the year, which he
said showed households expect inflation to rise further and wage bargaining
resulting in much higher wage growth than in the past.
Hungarian
household inflation expectations increased well into the double-digit territory
based on the central bank's latest survey. Think tank GKI said price hike
intentions rose across all sectors except for construction last month.
A Polish
statistics office survey showed over 70% of consumers expected inflation to run
at the same rate or even higher in the next 12 months, while think tank BIEC's
survey showed an increase in both household and corporate inflation
expectations.
More
Analysis: Runaway prices have central Europe on the ropes | Reuters
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Study
tracks airborne spread of COVID between different hotel floors
Rich Haridy November 06, 2022
A striking
new case study published in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases illustrates
just how pervasive SARS-CoV-2 aerosol transmission can be, describing a trio of
infections in a Taiwan quarantine hotel with the virus likely traveling through
walls and floors in a poorly ventilated building.
Perhaps the
most significant shift in thinking regarding this novel coronavirus since the
pandemic began has been around how viruses spread from one person to another.
Back in early 2020, soon after SARS-CoV-2 first emerged, the traditional
paradigm was these kinds of viruses spread through respiratory droplets. Hence
all the early pandemic messaging was focused on how we should wash or sanitize
our hands and keep six feet away from others.
But as time passed, and case
studies of infection clusters began
to emerge, it became quickly clear that SARS-CoV-2 has the propensity to spread through the air across
large distances. By 2021 scientists described the evidence
for airborne spread as "overwhelming." Nevertheless, entrenched paradigms are slow to
change, and even now, nearly three years into the pandemic, there are still
debates over how prevalent aerosol transmission is for SARS-CoV-2.
A new case study, published
in a journal managed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
(CDC), offers some of the strongest evidence to date of long-distance
SARS-CoV-2 aerosol spread. The report looks at a trio of COVID cases from
December 2021, in a Taiwan quarantine hotel.
All three cases tested
positive to a PCR test after finishing their 10-day quarantine hotel stay.
During their hotel stay they lived in nonadjacent rooms, with one of the cases
on the floor above the other two cases. Genomic testing linked all three cases
with one another so it was clear the infections took place in the hotel, and
the primary case was suspected to be a guest arriving from the US.
So, how did one person infect
two other people in different rooms and on different floors of the same hotel?
A team of researchers set out
to study the architecture of the hotel in granular detail. The primary case's
room (510) was found to have spaces in the walls and ceiling that connected
airflow to other rooms in the building, in this instance to room 503 and to
611, on the floor above.
"We found
truncated pipes above the ceiling in the room 510 bathroom, which might have
connected to room 610, and a residual tunnel above the ceiling that might
connect room 610 to room 611," the researchers explained in the study.
"A residual tunnel in the same location was also found in the middle of
room 510 and room 511, and another tunnel connected room 511 and room
503."
This all suggested
plausible routes of airflow between the non-adjacent rooms, but to actually
test whether aerosols could move this way the researchers conducted a
tracer-gas experiment. Ethanol was used as the tracer, and released from the
primary case room. Within minutes, traces of ethanol aerosols were detected in
both secondary case rooms, including the room on the floor above.
More
Study tracks
airborne spread of COVID between different hotel floors (newatlas.com)
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine
Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19
vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Strange material demonstrates exotic quantum state at
room temperature
Michael Irving October 30, 2022
Many
quantum effects can only be produced at extremely cold temperatures, which
limits how useful they would be in real-world settings. Now, researchers at
Princeton have demonstrated a strange quantum state taking place in a material
at room temperature.
A topological
insulator is a material with a structure that
conducts electrons in a unique way. The bulk of the material is an insulator,
completely preventing the flow of electrons through it. However, thin layers at
its surface and along its edges are highly conductive, allowing electrons to
flow freely at high
efficiencies. Given these weird properties, topological
insulators can host some intriguing
quantum states that could be useful for building future
quantum technologies.
But of course
there’s a catch: most quantum states are extremely fragile, collapsing in the
face of interference. Heat, or thermal noise, is a major trigger – when
materials get warmer, the atoms in them vibrate at higher energies, which
disrupts the quantum state. As such, most experiments and technologies that
make use of quantum effects need to be done at temperatures close to absolute
zero, where the movements of atoms slows right down. But that in turn makes
these technologies impractical for wider use.
In the new study,
the Princeton researchers found a way around this, observing quantum effects in
a topological insulator at room temperature. Their material of choice was an
inorganic crystalline compound known as bismuth bromide.
This material was found to
have just the right band gap, an insulating “barrier” where electrons cannot
exist with certain energy levels. This band gap needs to be wide enough to
protect against thermal noise, but not so wide that it disrupts the electrons’
spin-orbit coupling effect, which is vital for keeping them stable. Bismuth
bromide was found to have a band gap of over 200 milli electron volts, right in
the “sweet spot” to keep the quantum state stable at room temperature.
The team confirmed their
finding by observing what’s called a quantum spin hall edge state,
a property that’s unique to these topological systems. The researchers say that
this breakthrough will be useful in advancing quantum technologies like spintronics, the emerging field that encodes data in the spins of
electrons at higher efficiency than current electronics.
“This is
just terrific that we found them without giant pressure or an ultra-high
magnetic field, thus making the materials more accessible for developing
next-generation quantum technology,” said Nana Shumiya, co-first author of the
study. “I believe our discovery will significantly advance the quantum
frontier.”
The research was published in
the journal Nature
Materials.
Strange material demonstrates exotic quantum state at room temperature (newatlas.com)
“As democracy
is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the
inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the
land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be
adorned by a downright moron.”
On Politics.
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