Baltic Dry Index. 1393 +37 Brent Crude 92.47
Spot Gold 1712 US 2 Year Yield 4.61 -0.06
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 10/11/22 World 638,883,228
Deaths 6,610,134
If the bubbles contain a misconception, as they always do, then it can't be maintained forever
George Soros.
In the stock casinos, more realisation that the Great Magic Money Tree forests found in March 2020 were an everything bubble fuelling Great Mistake. Will the collapse of the Great Cryptocurrency Bubble widen out into the real economy?
In the USA later today, the latest inflation numbers for October; the almost final results from Tuesday’s mid-term elections.
At first glance, seen from far away rainy, stormy London, neither the far left nor far right seem to have won much of anything in November 2022.
Later today in America too, a late minimal hurricane is about to hit Florida’s east coast probably somewhere near Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago.
Not much around to start hyping a new Santa
Claus stocks casino bubble.
Hong Kong stocks
lead losses as Asia markets fall ahead of U.S. inflation data
UPDATED WED, NOV 9 2022 11:57 PM
EST
Shares in
the Asia-Pacific fell Thursday as investors await U.S. inflation data, a key
metric closely watched by the Federal Reserve, and as U.S. midterm
results continue to roll in.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell
1.86% as Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 2.65% – leading in losses across markets
in the wider region. In mainland China, the Shenzhen Component declined
0.913%, while the Shanghai Composite Index
lost 0.53%.
The Nikkei 225 in
Japan shed 0.98% in early trade and the Topix declined 0.58%. In South Korea,
the Kospi dropped
0.59%. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1.19%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was
down 0.51%.
Chipmakers Semiconductor Manufacturing
International Corporation and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing are
slated to report earnings later in the day as well as Apple supplier Foxconn.
Overnight on Wall Street, stocks closed
lower as results of the elections provided no clear answers
about who would control Congress yet. A crypto
selloff also weighed on markets. Looking ahead, economists are
expecting the October consumer price index rose 0.6% from
September, according to a Dow Jones poll.
Hong
Kong stocks lead losses as Asia markets fall ahead of U.S. inflation data
(cnbc.com)
Republicans
close in on U.S. House majority, Senate still up for grabs
November 10, 2022 5:38
AM GMT Last Updated 23 min ago
WASHINGTON, Nov
10 (Reuters) - Republicans were edging closer to securing a majority in the
U.S. House of Representatives early on Thursday, while control of the Senate
hung in the balance, two days after Democrats staved off a Republican "red
wave" in midterm elections.
Republicans
had captured at least 210 House seats, Edison Research projected, eight short
of the 218 needed to wrest the House away from Democrats and effectively halt
President Joe Biden's legislative agenda.
While Republicans
remain favored, there were 33 House contests yet to be decided - including 21
of the 53 most competitive races, based on a Reuters analysis of the leading
nonpartisan forecasters - likely ensuring the final outcome will not be determined
for some time.
The fate of the Senate was
far less certain. Either party could seize control by sweeping
too-close-to-call races in Nevada and Arizona, where officials are methodically
tallying thousands of uncounted ballots.
A split would
mean the Senate majority would come down to a runoff election in Georgia for
the second time in two years. Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock and
Republican challenger Herschel Walker both failed to reach 50% on Tuesday,
forcing them into a one-on-one battle on Dec. 6.
Even
a slim House majority would allow Republicans to shape the rest of Biden's term,
blocking priorities such as abortion rights and launching investigations into
his administration and family
More
Republicans close in on U.S. House majority, Senate still up for grabs | Reuters
Finally, yet more harsh reality hits the
fallen tech sector. Has the crypto universe just blown up like Madoff?
Meta
to cut more than 11,000 jobs in one of the biggest layoffs this year
November 9, 2022
11:36 AM GMT
Nov 9 (Reuters) - Meta Platforms
Inc (META.O) said
on Wednesday it will let go of 13% of its workforce, or more than 11,000
employees, in one of the biggest layoffs this year as the Facebook parent
battles soaring costs and a weak advertising market.
The mass layoffs, first in Meta's
18-year history, follow thousands of job cuts at other major tech companies
including Elon Musk-owned Twitter and Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O).
The pandemic-led boom that boosted tech
companies and their valuations has turned into a bust this year in the face of
decades-high inflation and rapidly rising interest rates.
"Not only has online commerce
returned to prior trends, but the macroeconomic downturn, increased
competition, and ads signal loss have caused our revenue to be much lower than
I'd expected," Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg said in a message
to employees.
"I got this wrong, and I take
responsibility for that."
Meta, whose shares have lost more than
two-thirds of their value so far this year, rose nearly 3% before the bell.
The company also plans to cut
discretionary spending and extend its hiring freeze through the first quarter.
But it did not disclose the expected cost savings from the moves.
Meta will pay 16 weeks of base pay plus
two additional weeks for every year of service, as well as all remaining paid
time off, as a part of the severance package, the company said.
Impacted employees will also receive
their shares that were set to vest on Nov. 15 and healthcare coverage for six
months, according to the company.
Zuckerberg is among several top U.S.
executives who have this year sounded the alarm on an upcoming recession.
More
Meta to cut more than 11,000 jobs in one of the
biggest layoffs this year | Reuters
Binance
backs out of deal to buy FTX
November 9, 2022
The world’s largest crypto
exchange by volume, Binance, said it would walk away from a deal with the third
largest crypto exchange by volume, FTX.
On
Tuesday, Binance signed a letter of intent to purchase its troubled competitor,
FTX, in what appeared to be a potential bailout of the latter amid a liquidity
crunch. But just a bit over 24 hours later, that plan crumbled.
Binance
backed out after reviewing the company’s structure and books, it said in a statement to the
Wall Street Journal. “Our hope was to be able to support FTX’s customers to
provide liquidity, but the issues are beyond our control or ability to help,”
Binance said.
“As
a result of corporate due diligence, as well as the latest news reports
regarding mishandled customer funds and alleged U.S. agency
investigations, we have decided that we will not pursue the
potential acquisition of [FTX],” Binance said in a tweet.
“Every time a major player in
an industry fails, retail consumers will suffer,” Binance continued. “We have
seen over the last several years that the crypto ecosystem is becoming more
resilient and we believe in time that outliers that misuse user funds will be
weeded out by the free market.”
Binance
and FTX did not immediately respond to TechCrunch requests for comment.
Earlier today, sources familiar with the matter told CoinDesk that
FTX’s loan commitments raised concerns among
Binance’s top brass. The report follows Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao tweeting that FTX
“going down is not good for anyone in the industry.”
Binance
backs out of deal to buy FTX (msn.com)
Sequoia Capital marks down its
FTX investment to $0
Venture capital firm Sequoia Capital said it will
mark down to zero its investment of over $210 million in cryptocurrency
exchange FTX, as possibilities of bankruptcy loom.
“In recent days, a liquidity crunch
has created solvency risk for FTX,” Sequoia said in a note
to investors posted on Twitter.
“Based on our current understanding, we are marking our investment down to
$0,” the Silicon Valley-based firm said Wednesday.
“The full nature and
extent of this risk is not known at this time,” Sequoia said, adding that they
are monitoring the situation which is developing quickly.
FTX, owned by
30-year-old entrepreneur Sam Bankman-Fried, was valued at $32 billion earlier
this year.
Sequoia’s announcement comes as rival exchange
Binance’s CEO Changpeng Zhao backed
out of a proposed deal to purchase FTX, leaving the beleaguered
firm at risk of a liquidity crisis.
Also on Wednesday, the U.S.
Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission reportedly
launched investigations into the sudden implosion of the crypto trading
platform.
FTX’s native token FTT was
down nearly 30% and traded at $2.21 on Thursday. The
broader cryptocurrency market has taken a beating as well, with
bitcoin touching a new low for the year earlier this week.
---- Separately,
Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari on Wednesday continued his sharp
criticism against cryptocurrencies.
“It’s kind of the wild Wild West and chaos
all rolled into one,” he said of the virtual asset during an event at
South Dakota State University,
He added the “fatal flaw” in the asset is
that anyone can create those coins, making them “hard to distinguish.”
“It might be 99% noise, hype and confusion
based on what’s going on right now,” he said, without further commenting on the
implosion of FTX and its spillover effect onto other currencies.
Sequoia
Capital marks down its FTX investment to $0 (cnbc.com)
Sam-Bankman
Fried told OKX FTX has liability of $7 bln - OKX director
November 10, 2022 4:54
AM GMT Last Updated an hour ago
HONG KONG, Nov 10
(Reuters) - FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried has appealed for a $2 billion to $4
billion cash injection from OKX on Monday morning just prior to the
announcement of the now collapsed acquisition mooted by arch rival Binance,
said a senior executive at OKX.
The
CEO of the troubled exchange had presented "a lot of urgency" in
seeking that amount of cash injection during a call on November 8, as this
would have helped FTX survive a short-term liquidity crisis, said Lennix Lai,
director of financial markets at OKX.
The appeal for
cash injection has come as FTX was facing a $7 billion total liability, said
Lai, citing Bankman-Fried's comment made in the call.
FTX
has approached OKX for a deal as it needed to survive through a slew of
withdrawal requests, Lai said, citing the several calls he had with
Bankman-Fried on Nov. 8.
"If
FTX does not get immediate cash injection, they would go bankrupt," said
Lai, he recalled their conversation during a later call at 7 a.m. Hong Kong
time.
More
Sam-Bankman
Fried told OKX FTX has liability of $7 bln - OKX director | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Hungary’s government sets price cap on eggs, potatoes.
November
9, 2022
BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) — Grocers in Hungary will be
ordered to sell eggs and potatoes at prices no higher than they were at the end
of September, a government minister announced Wednesday, part of an effort to
ease the burden of skyrocketing prices in the Central European country.
The cap on egg and potato prices adds to a list of
several other grocery items — including granulated sugar, wheat flour,
sunflower oil, pork legs, milk and several chicken products — that have had price ceilings in Hungary since February.
Gasoline and diesel prices have also been capped at 480 forints
($1.20) per liter since November 2021 for people whose vehicles are registered in Hungary.
“We have looked at which staple products have become more
expensive, with eggs and potatoes topping the list,” said the Hungarian prime
minister’s chief of staff, Gergely Gulyas, at a news conference in Budapest.
The price caps will remain in place until Dec. 31, with
the option to extend them after that.
The measures come as Hungary faces rising inflation and a
weakening currency, propelled partly by a debate with the European Union, which
has threatened to withhold billions in pandemic recovery funds and other
resources over rule-of-law and democracy concerns.
Hungary’s inflation in October hit 20.1%,
a high not seen in more than 20 years and well over the EU average of 10.7%.
Gulyas said the government expected Hungary’s yearly inflation to be at least
13.5%, but that the cap on egg and potato prices could help reduce it by one or
two tenths of a percent.
More
Hungary's
government sets price cap on eggs, potatoes. | AP News
Nouriel Roubini says
it’s ‘mission impossible’ to avoid a hard landing, and we’ll get the worst of
the 1970s and 2000s combined
November
8, 2022
The Federal Reserve is playing a complicated
balancing act with huge implications. It’s trying to slow the economy bit by
bit through interest rate hikes to reduce soaring inflation, while not tipping
the economy into a recession.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell still says it’s possible to cool the economy and keep employment stable—all
without causing a severe downturn, in what would be a “soft landing.”
But if history is any indication, a recession
and an economic “hard landing” are all but guaranteed, says Nouriel Roubini,
professor emeritus at New York University’s Stern School of Business and the
CEO of Roubini Macro Associates. He earned the nickname “Dr. Doom” for his
prophetic visions of looming economic downturns, including an accurate prediction of the 2008
housing crash and subsequent market
crisis.
With the U.S. annual inflation rate as high as
it is—8.2% in October—only a deep recession and a steep spike in unemployment
might be enough to fix it, Roubini warned in a recent interview with Fortune.
“In U.S. history, over the last 60 years,
there has never been an episode where inflation was above 5% and unemployment
was below 5% [when] the Fed started raising rates and avoided a hard landing,”
Roubini said. “History suggests it’s going to be near mission impossible to
avoid a hard landing.”
But any continued economic
downturn may result in something worse than higher unemployment, Roubini
warned. Multiple factors could collide to create a recession that combines the
elements of the two worst financial crises in recent U.S. history: the 1970s
energy shocks and the 2008 financial crash.
----Roubini told Fortune that
a recession is coming and will likely send unemployment much higher than its
current level.
But
unlike the many banks and strategists that have forecast a
mild recession, Roubini said that the coming downturn will not be “short and
shallow” and is instead likely to be “severe and more protracted.”
Worst
of both worlds
Roubini
warned that a confluence of factors—including rising national debt levels,
supply-chain issues, and a global energy crisis—could bring together the worst
of two historically bad economic downturns in the U.S.
“In
some sense, we’re going to have maybe the worst of the 1970s and the worst of
the post-GFC [Global Financial Crisis] period,” he said.
Roubini
said that the coming recession has some similarities to the 1970s economic
crisis that was largely caused by two oil supply shocks in 1973 and 1979, which
led to high global oil prices and fuel shortages.
Today
the world is in the grip of another global energy shock, this time with natural
gas in the spotlight. The war in Ukraine has severely disrupted global energy
markets, including severely limiting natural gas flows from
Russia to Europe and sparking an energy crisis on the continent.
Natural gas is expected to remain in low supply well into next year,
while the war has also aggravated an oil crunch that started during the pandemic era.
“In
the 1970s we had two negative supply shocks. Today we have many more than two,”
Roubini said.
But
a big difference with the 1970s—and a worrying parallel with the downturn of
the late 2000s—is the soaring level of U.S. national debt,
according to Roubini.
“[In
the 1970s] we did not have high debt levels so there was no widespread debt crisis,”
he said. “After the GFC there was a debt crisis to match the debt of households
with the banks, mortgages, and the housing bubble gone bust.”
In
2022, after years of higher government spending and pandemic-era stimulus, the
U.S. national debt has reached new heights. The U.S. government went on a
borrowing spree in the earlier days of the pandemic to help shore up the
economy as businesses faced closures and unemployment soared, but that
borrowing has returned with a vengeance with the national debt topping $31 trillion for the first
time last month.
“Today,
we have negative supply shocks worse than the ’70s,” Roubini said. “And we have
the worst of the GFC because the debt ratios are through the roof,” referring
to today’s soaring national debt crisis and its similarities with U.S. debt in
the late 2000s.
Roubini
said that the resulting combination might push the U.S. economy into something
even worse than a recession, as high inflation combined with slower economic
growth due to high debt levels could lead to stagflation, a toxic mix of high prices
and low-to-zero growth.
“You're
gonna get not only inflation, not only a recession, but what they call
the Great Stagflationary Debt Crisis,”
Roubini said. “You’re going to essentially have a combination of both, so it’s
much worse than the ’70s and it’s probably as bad as during the GFC.”
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Long COVID study finds 90% still impacted after 12
months
Rich Haridy November
08, 2022
A survey of nearly 1,000 long COVID patients has found 89% of
respondents have not
returned to their pre-COVID level of health, a year after their acute
infection. The study highlights the persistent lingering impact COVID is having
on many people.
The new research, led by
a team from University College Cork, surveyed 988 long COVID patients in
Ireland. Less than 10% of the cohort suffered a severe acute COVID infection
requiring hospitalization. Instead, 62% reported their initial infection to be
mild or moderate.
Although most of the respondents reported their health had not returned
to normal since their acute infection, only a small amount were still
significantly incapacitated. Just under 40% of those surveyed said their long
COVID symptoms still affected their ability to work, and 16% of participants
were currently receiving welfare payments due to their illness.
"This survey highlights that SARS-CoV-2 infection not only impacts
the lungs but can have significant long-term effects on multiple organ systems
following clearance of the acute SARS-CoV-2 infection in many Irish people who
were otherwise healthy previously," said Liam O'Mahony, one of the lead
researchers on the project. "A wide range of body systems are impacted by
long COVID, as demonstrated by systemic, respiratory, cardiovascular,
gastrointestinal, neuropsychiatric or musculoskeletal symptoms. Fatigue is the
single most frequent symptom reported.”
The
findings echo a 2021 study tracking the long-term impact of long
COVID in more than 3,500 people from 56 countries. That research was limited to
a 35-week follow-up but it found 91% of patients had not returned to their
baseline levels of health seven months after the acute infection.
One
potential problem with these kinds of retrospective patient surveys is they can
be biased towards those patients experiencing the most severe long COVID
effects. The authors of the 2021 study flag this problem, suggesting these
kinds of findings may not be entirely representative of all long COVID
experiences.
"As
the survey was distributed in online support groups, there exists a sampling
bias toward long COVID patients who joined support groups and were active
participants of the groups at the time the survey was published," the
researchers behind last year's study explained. "The effort to complete
the survey may have deterred some respondents who experienced cognitive
dysfunction, or were no longer ill and did not have incentives to
participate."
A more
recent study, from University of Glasgow researchers, perhaps offers a
more tempered investigation into the persistence of long COVID. That research,
published in Nature Communications, followed more than 30,000
confirmed COVID cases in Scotland for up to 18 months after their acute
infection.
At
their most recent follow-up, between six and 18 months after infection, 42% of
patients reported they only felt "partially recovered." A striking 6%
of respondents reported not feeling better at all after at least six months.
More
Long COVID study finds 90% still impacted after 12
months (newatlas.com)
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine
Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19
vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
EXPLAINER: Bikes, batteries and blazes spark concern in
NYC
NEW YORK (AP) — A weekend fire that injured over three
dozen people — and forced firefighters to use ropes to pluck people from a
20th-story window — is drawing attention to a rising concern in New York City:
battery fires that can arise in the electric bikes and scooters that have
proliferated here.
City officials are considering new laws after the fire
department counted nearly 200 blazes and six fire deaths this year tied to
problems with lithium-ion batteries in such “micromobility” devices.
WHAT ARE THESE BATTERIES? ARE THEY THE SAME TECH USED IN
PHONES AND CARS?
Lithium-ion batteries are a Nobel Prize-winning innovation that entered the market in the early 1990s. Hailed
as rechargeable, lightweight, powerful, durable and safe, the batteries have
been envisioned as a key to greening the world’s energy supply by storing
energy, including from the sun, wind and other renewable sources.
The technology has woven its way into many people’s
everyday lives, powering phones, laptop computers, vehicles and more.
WHY CAN THEY CATCH FIRE?
The batteries’ electrolyte — a solution that lets
electrical current flow — is flammable, explains Massachusetts Institute of
Technology materials chemistry professor Dr. Donald Sadoway. The substance was
chosen for its ability to handle the voltage involved, but fires can happen if
the batteries are overcharged, overheated, defective or damaged, for instance.
Over the years, problems have periodically triggered
fires involving laptops, cellphones, hoverboards, electric vehicles, airplanes and battery power storage installations. A U.N. aviation agency said in 2016 that
lithium-ion batteries shouldn’t be shipped on passenger planes.
Battery industry group leader James Greenberger notes
that other energy sources aren’t trouble-free, and he says there’s nothing
inherently unsafe about the batteries. But he said the industry is concerned
about the fires lately in New York and worries that they could scare off
consumers.
“This shouldn’t be happening and we need to figure out
what’s going on,” said Greenberger, the executive director of NAATBatt — the
North American trade association for advanced battery technology developers,
manufacturers and users.
WHY ARE E-BIKES AND SCOOTERS GETTING SCRUTINY IN NEW YORK?
The city has seen “an exponential increase” in fires
related to faulty lithium-ion batteries in recent years, Chief Fire Marshal
Daniel Flynn said. He said there have been more deaths and injuries already
this year than in the past three years combined.
“It’s a big issue,” he said at a news conference Monday,
describing fires that occur without warning, grow rapidly and are tough to
extinguish.
The batteries “fail almost in an explosive way — it’s
like a blowtorch,” he said.
Saturday’s fire in a Manhattan apartment was sparked by
a malfunctioning e-bike battery that residents were attempting to charge and
left unattended while they fell asleep, he said. They were trapped when the
battery, plugged in by the front door, caught fire, Flynn said.
More
EXPLAINER: Bikes,
batteries and blazes spark concern in NYC | AP News
We have the best government that money can buy.
Mark Twain.
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