Baltic Dry Index. 1394 +07 Brent Crude 98.67
Spot Gold 1763 US 2 Year Yield 3.28 +0.03
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 18/08/22 World 598,197,031
Deaths 6,463,879
There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history
counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent
that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those
who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the
present.
John Kenneth Galbraith
In
the stock casinos, more worry and rising concern. What if Mr. Bear returns with
a sore head.
Call
me old fashioned, unable to stay with modern times, but rising interest rates
are never good for property sales anywhere and without a real estate boom, the national
economy just about everywhere sooner or later, but often sooner than many
expect, starts to falter.
Property
is now in retreat in China, the USA, UK and those parts of Europe once favoured
by Russian oligarchs.
I
think the stock casinos are trading on borrowed time.
This morning there is a nasty rumour that the Rhine has become blocked by a barge. We will know later in the day if this is true or serious.
Asia-Pacific
markets trade lower after Wall Street cools following Fed minutes
UPDATED THU, AUG 18 2022 12:16 AM
EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets opened lower across the board after the latest Wall Street rally cooled
overnight and July minutes from the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee pointed
to “little evidence inflation pressures were subsiding” at the time of the
meeting.
The in
Australia fell 0.38%. Japan’s dipped
about 1% while the Topix index dropped 0.79%. In South Korea, the Kospi was
down 0.52%.
Mainland China markets also took
a dive. The Shanghai Composite slipped 0.26% and the Shenzhen Component lowered
by 0.41%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell
0.53%
Losses were felt across all
industries. Australian coal producer ,
however, continued to stand out, posting just under 4% gains in early trade.
The company has benefitted from surging coal prices.
MSCI broadest index of
Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.17%.
After hiking rates by 50 basis
points Wednesday, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr said on
Thursday he was confident inflation was falling.
The Philippine central bank will
meet on interest rates and is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points.
After the market closed
Wednesday, Tencent
posted its first ever quarterly sales fall. The company said its
earnings were hurt by a lack of game approvals and regulations that limit
playing time, pandemic lockdowns and a weak economy that hurt ad sales. Tencent
shares have bounced by 3.1%.
Chinese developer
Country Garden has issued a profit warning projecting its net profit for the
first half of the year to fall below half of last year’s result.
It estimated its net
profit to sit between 4,500 million yuan and 5,000 million yuan ($660 million
and $730 million), down from last year’s 15 billion yuan ($2.21 billion).
The company
attributes the fall in profit to a decrease in property sales, increased
provision for impairment for property projects and foreign exchange losses.
More
Asia-Pacific
markets trade lower after Wall Street cools following Fed minutes (cnbc.com)
European markets
set to open higher but caution reigns after Fed minutes
UPDATED THU, AUG 18 2022 12:31 AM
EDT
European markets are heading for another
positive open on Thursday but are struggling to build on gains amid continuing
market caution over the inflationary outlook.
Overnight, Asia-Pacific
markets opened lower across the board after the latest Wall
Street rally cooled on Wednesday following
the release of July minutes from the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee,
which pointed to “little evidence inflation pressures were subsiding” at the
time of the meeting.
European markets
pulled back on Wednesday after a rally on Wall Street, having struggled to
build positive momentum so far this week.
Investors were
tracking preliminary gross domestic product data from the euro zone for the
second quarter, as well as unemployment figures for the single currency bloc,
and the latest
U.K. inflation figures for July, which showed the consumer price
index hitting another 40-year high.
Economic growth
in the euro zone for the second quarter was revised down on Wednesday from 0.7%
to 0.6% quarter on quarter, and from 4% to 3.9% annually. Eurostat also
revealed that employment across the 19-member common currency bloc rose 0.3%
quarterly, for a 2.4% year-on-year increase.
European
markets open to close, news, data, stocks, earnings (cnbc.com)
In
other news, what happened to the Atlantic hurricane season? Are the missing
hurricanes linked in some way to Europe’s Great Drought? It this only “transitory”?
After a quiet start,
Atlantic hurricane season could ramp up into September
Matthew Cappucci August 17, 2022
Despite nearly unanimous predictions that there
would be above-average activity, it’s been an ominously quiet start to
hurricane season — though that could still change in the coming weeks.
There hasn’t been a named storm anywhere in the
Atlantic basin since Colin, a pipsqueak swirl of gusty showers that scraped
along the Carolina coastline on July 3 with minimal impact. Since then, it has
been quiet despite the calendar nearing September, when hurricane season
historically peaks in activity.
There are signs that, after a
quiet week ahead, a reversal could be in the cards for the final few days of
August. The National Hurricane Center has outlined one system to watch and
indicated that a sudden uptick in activity is possible. It’s far from a
guarantee, but it also stands to reason that the tropical slumber can’t last
forever.
Warming oceans fuel earlier Atlantic
hurricane seasons, study finds
The historic peak of
hurricane season is around Sept. 15, but most of late August into mid-October
is regarded as the busiest stretch of weeks when it comes to tracking the
tropics. A given season averages 14 named storms, seven of which might be
hurricanes, but NOAA forecasters have continued to echo earlier calls for
14 to 20 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.
Even the quietest seasons have whipped up meteorological
monstrosities.
For
instance, there were only seven named storms in 1992, but the first was
Category 5 Hurricane Andrew, which lay siege to South Florida and raked the
National Hurricane Center headquarters with a wind gust to 163 mph. Conversely,
what may have been busier seasons on paper have had comparatively lesser human
impacts when storms have spent their lives over the open ocean.
But
when it comes to tropical storms and hurricanes, it only takes one.
After
a quiet start, Atlantic hurricane season could ramp up into September (msn.com)
Finally,
what else can go wrong in 2022?
Asia gas
prices surge to highest since war began on fuel crunch
AUGUST 17, 2022 / 11:54 AM IST
A global rush to secure shipments of
liquefied natural gas for winter catapulted Asian prices to the highest level
in five months.
The Asian benchmark spot LNG price
jumped close to $60 per million British thermal units on Tuesday, the highest
level since early March when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upended energy
markets.
Russia’s move to curb gas shipments to
Europe is sending prices of the power plant and heating fuel surging around the
world. Utilities in Asia and Europe are accelerating efforts to secure LNG spot
cargoes for delivery in winter, when consumption peaks, which is exacerbating a
shortage and fueling the rally in prices.
Several Japanese utilities are
currently in the market to procure more LNG shipments for delivery from
December onward, according to traders with knowledge of the matter. Korea Gas
Corp., one of the world’s top buyers of the fuel, is also seeking to scoop up
more winter supply, traders added.
Meanwhile, supply disruptions from
Australia to the US are curbing the amount of available LNG. Several companies,
including Uniper SE and Marubeni Corp., were bidding for LNG shipments to Asia
during S&P Global’s market on close process on Tuesday, traders said.
The Japan-Korea Marker jumped to $57.728 per
million British thermal units on Tuesday, more than triple the level this time
last year, according to S&P Global. European gas
prices settled just below a record high on Tuesday amid scorching summer
heat.
Chinese property
developers’ cash flows have plunged by more than 20%
BEIJING — Chinese
property developers’ cash flows — a sign of the companies’ ability to stay
afloat — shrank this year after steady growth over the last decade, according
to Oxford Economics.
Developer cash flows
through July are down 24% year-on-year on an annualized basis, according to
analysis from the firm’s lead economist, Tommy Wu.
That’s a sharp
slowdown from growth for nearly every year since at least 2009, the data
showed. Total funding as of July was 15.22 trillion yuan ($2.27 trillion) on an
annualized basis, versus 20.11 trillion yuan in 2021.
The drop comes as credit demand in China missed
expectations in July, and property developers’ struggles drag on.
About two years ago, Beijing
started to crack down on developers’ high reliance on debt for growth. Notably, Evergrande
defaulted late last year. Other developers like have also
defaulted, despite
appearing to have healthier balance sheets.
While investors have turned cautious on Chinese property
companies, developers now face the risk of losing another important source of
cash flow: homebuyer pre-payments.
Homes are typically sold ahead of completion in
China. But since late June, some homebuyers have protested apartment
construction delays by halting
mortgage payments.
“The crux of the problem is that
property developers have insufficient cash flows – whether because of
debt-servicing costs, low housing sales, or misuse of funds – to continue with
projects,” Wu said in a report last week.
More
Chinese
property developers' cash flows have plunged by more than 20% (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
It
doesn’t get much uglier than this.
August
2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Business
activity declined sharply in New York State, according to firms responding to
the August 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general
business conditions index plummeted forty-two points to -31.3. New orders and
shipments plunged, and unfilled orders declined. Delivery times held steady for
the first time in nearly two years, and inventories edged higher.
Labor market indicators pointed to a small
increase in employment, but a decline in the average workweek. While still
elevated, the prices paid index moved lower, and the prices received index held
steady. Looking ahead, firms did not expect much improvement in business
conditions over the next six months
Headline
Index Plunges
Manufacturing
activity declined significantly in New York State, according to the August
survey. The general business conditions index plunged forty-two points to
-31.3, the second largest monthly decline in the index on record, and among the
lowest levels in the survey’s history. Twelve percent of respondents reported
that conditions had improved over the month, and forty-four percent reported
that conditions had worsened.
The
new orders index dropped thirty-six points to -29.6, and the shipments index
plummeted nearly fifty points to -24.1, indicating a sharp decline in both
orders and shipments. The unfilled orders index fell to -12.7, indicating that
unfilled orders shrank for a third consecutive month. The delivery times index
declined to around zero, indicating that delivery times held steady, the first
month they have not lengthened in nearly two years. The inventories index fell
to 6.4, signaling that inventories increased marginally
More.
Empire
State Manufacturing Survey (newyorkfed.org)
US Housing Cools Further
With Fewer Starts, More Canceled Deals
Tue,
16 August 2022 at 3:14 pm
(Bloomberg) -- The once-booming US housing market is
sputtering.
Construction starts fell in July to
the slowest pace since early 2021 as single-family homebuilding tumbled,
according to government data released Tuesday. Meanwhile canceled deals rose as
buyers continued to back away from the market amid rising mortgage rates,
according to an analysis by Redfin Corp.
After a pandemic-related housing boom
forced builders to scramble to make enough homes to satisfy demand, high
mortgage rates, elevated inflation and a deteriorating economy are now
tempering sales. That’s left builders with a sizable number of unsold
properties.
The outlook continues to deteriorate.
A report Monday showed homebuilder sentiment slid for an eighth-straight month
in August, marking the worst stretch since 2007. While Home Depot Inc. reported
better-than-expected earnings last quarter, it said customer transactions
continue to fall.
More
US Housing Cools
Further With Fewer Starts, More Canceled Deals (yahoo.com)
UK inflation hits 10.1% as
cost of living soars
17 August, 2022
Prices are continuing to rise
at their fastest rate for more than 40 years, with UK inflation passing double
digits for the first time since 1982.
Inflation hit
10.1% in the 12 months to July, up from 9.4% in June, the Office for National
Statistics (ONS) said.
The Bank of
England has said inflation - the rate at which prices rise - could peak at more
than 13%.
The figure was
higher than economists expected, with rising food prices making the biggest
contribution.
Energy, petrol
and diesel costs are also contributing.
Soaring living
costs are eating into household budgets, with
prices rising faster than wages.
Food and
non-alcoholic drinks were the largest contributor to rising prices in July,
according to the ONS.
The price of bread,
cereals, milk, cheese and eggs rose the fastest, while the cost of vegetables,
meat and chocolate were also higher.
Prices also rose
for other staples, such as toilet rolls, pet food and toothbrushes.
Transport costs
were another big contributing factor, with air fares and international rail
tickets particularly increasing. The price for package holidays also went up,
as demand increased.
More
UK inflation hits 10.1% as cost of living soars - BBC News
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Today, something we first reported back in 2020.
BCG vaccine for tuberculosis
protects diabetics from COVID-19: Study
AUGUST
16, 2022 / 12:49 PM IST
A widely used tuberculosis vaccine
protected people with Type 1 diabetes from COVID-19, according to a study that
demonstrates the potential of multiple doses of the Bacillus Calmette-Guerin
(BCG) preventive against SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses.
The study, published in the journal
Cell Reports Medicine on Monday, was conducted on 144 patients with type 1
diabetes at the start of the pandemic, much before COVID-specific vaccines were
available.
Researchers at Massachusetts General
Hospital (MGH) in the US found that 12.5 per cent of placebo-treated
individuals and 1 per cent of BCG-treated individuals had confirmed COVID-19,
yielding a vaccine effectiveness of 92 per cent.
The BCG-vaccinated group also displayed
protective effects against other infectious diseases, including fewer symptoms,
lesser severity and fewer infectious disease events per patient.
No BCG-related systemic adverse events
occurred, according to the researchers. BCG's broad-based infection protection
suggests that, in addition to COVID-19, the vaccine may potentially provide
protection against new SARS-CoV-2 variants and other pathogens, they said.
The researchers are hoping the results
will pave the way for a large scale study of the effects of the BCG vaccine in
patients with type 1 diabetes, considered among the most vulnerable groups to
COVID-19.
The BCG vaccine is an avirulent
tuberculosis strain Mycobacterium bovis historically given to protect against
tuberculosis and, since its introduction in 1921, has been the most widely
administered vaccine in the history of medicine.
Considered to be extremely safe, BCG is
on the World Health Organization's List of Essential Medicines and is given to
roughly 100 million children per year globally, the researchers said.
More
BCG vaccine for
tuberculosis protects diabetics from COVID-19: Study (moneycontrol.com)
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine
Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19
vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
17-Year-Old Boy’s
Electric Motor Design Could Revolutionize EVs
August 16, 2022
Sansone’s synchronous reluctance motor takes top prize at the
2022 Regeneron International Science and Engineering Fair.
What were your major
accomplishments at 17? Getting accepted into your dream college? Securing your
first job? In Robert Sansone’s case, he could be on the verge of
revolutionizing a new way to power electric vehicles (EV). The 17-year-old from
Fort Pierce, Florida, recently claimed the George D. Yancopoulos Innovator
Award at the 2022 Regeneron International Science and Engineering Fair for his
novel synchronous reluctance motor design.
Sansone has always been a tinkerer. Despite his youth, the prolific
inventor already has animatronic hands, high-speed running boots, and
high-powered go-karts to his name. When Sansone stumbled upon a video
illustrating the rare metals required to produce modern EV motors, he set out
to find a more environmentally- and financially-friendly approach.
As opposed to the permanent magnet motors commonly used today, Sansone
turned to a synchronous reluctance motor design, which is often found in fans
and pumps. However, these motors don’t generate enough torque to power an
electric vehicle. At least, not yet.
Permanent magnet motors leverage the attraction between a spinning
electromagnetic field and magnets attached to a rotor to drive the motor. A
synchronous reluctance motor does away with the magnets. The design typically
features a steel rotor with several slots cut into the disc. As the rotor
rotates, the difference in magnetism, or saliency ratio, between the steel and
air-filled gaps helps produce torque.
Sansone’s novel synchronous reluctance motor takes a different
approach, though. Instead of cutting slots into the rotor, Sansone introduces
another magnetic field into the fold. The young inventor doesn’t disclose the
specifics out of concerns for potential patent protection, but it seems like
his theory works in practice.
Constructed
from 3-D printed plastic, copper wires, and a steel rotor, Sansone’s prototype
increased torque by 39 percent and efficiency by 31 percent at 300 rpm.
Efficiency grew to 37 percent at 750rpm, but the prototype’s 3D-printed plastic
melted at higher revolution rates. Sansone’s findings secured him the 2022
George D. Yancopoulos Innovator Award, yet he isn’t resting on his laurels.
For
the Florida native's next prototype, he plans to utilize 3-D modeling and
stouter materials. If Sansone achieves higher rpm and performance figures with
his upcoming design, he will consider initiating the patent process and
approaching automotive companies.
“Rare-earth
materials in existing electric motors are a major factor undermining the
sustainability of electric vehicles,” noted Sansone. “Seeing the day when EVs
are fully sustainable due to the help of my novel motor design would be a dream
come true.”
While
the materials required to build synchronous reluctance motors are more
cost-effective, the design complexity and manufacturing costs still pose a
barrier to widespread use in electric vehicles. Still, with advances in
additive technologies like 3D printing,
Sansone’s design could shape the industry in the future.
17-Year-Old Boy’s Electric Motor Design Could
Revolutionize EVs (msn.com)
If all else fails, immortality
can always be assured by spectacular error.
John Kenneth
Galbraith.
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