Baltic Dry Index. 1731 -86 Brent Crude 96.98
Spot Gold 1771 US 2 Year Yield 3.10 +0.04
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 04/08/22 World 585,530,708
Deaths 6,428,138
"This first stage
of the inflationary process may last for many years. While it lasts, the prices
of many goods and services are not yet adjusted to the altered money relation.
There are still people in the country who have not yet become aware of the fact
that they are confronted with a price revolution which will finally result in a
considerable rise of all prices, although the extent of this rise will not be
the same in the various commodities and services. These people still believe
that prices one day will drop. Waiting for this day, they restrict their
purchases and concomitantly increase their cash holdings. As long as such ideas
are still held by public opinion, it is not yet too late for the government to
abandon its inflationary policy.”
Ludwig
von Mises.
More relief rally in the stock casinos today since so far, at least, China’s rhetoric over Pelosi’s Taiwan photo op, hasn’t been matched by its actions.
Some relief too, from a sudden drop in crude oil prices
Asian markets rally on
healthy US data, post-Pelosi relief
Thu,
4 August 2022 at 4:12 am
Asian markets on Thursday tracked a
Wall Street rally fuelled by healthy economic and earnings data, while there
was some relief that Nancy Pelosi's Taiwan trip did not elicit a harsher
response from China despite grave warnings from Beijing.
Oil managed to clock up some gains
following another sell-off that came on the back of fresh signs of weakening
demand in the United States, which came as major producers announced an
increase in output, albeit a small one.
New York's three main indexes surged
after a report on the crucial US services sector showed surprise improvement,
soothing worries about a possible recession in the world's top economy.
That came as several companies --
including Electronic Arts, Starbucks and Moderna -- posted strong earnings,
extending a broadly positive reporting season in the face of surging inflation
and rising interest rates.
All eyes are now on the release of US
jobs data Friday, which will provide the latest snapshot of the economy and
could help guide the Federal Reserve in its debate on monetary policy.
Markets have swung this week after a
number of Fed officials lined up to suggest there were still some big rate
hikes likely and talk of cuts next year might be overdone.
That came after comments last week
from bank chief Jerome Powell indicated that the policy board could start
easing up on its tightening campaign.
"Following last week's Fed
meeting that opened up the possibility of a slower hiking pace, markets are
still running 'risk-on' despite the recent push back from Fed officials,"
said SPI Asset Management's Stephen Innes.
"But for stock investors, lower
oil prices are a pleasure to behold as not only did the US 10-year yields
drop but sliding oil prices also downshifted inflation expectations,
supporting that slower hiking pace thesis."
Both
main oil contracts edged up Thursday, a day after prices tumbled to a six-month
low as a spike in US inventories showed demand waning, while figures showed
Americans driving less than summer 2022 when travel was smashed by Covid-19.
More
Asian
markets rally on healthy US data, post-Pelosi relief (yahoo.com)
European markets
head for higher open; big Bank of England hike expected
LONDON — European stocks are expected to open
higher on Thursday, building on gains made in the previous session.
The U.K.’s index is seen
7 points higher at 7,411, Germany’s is expected to
open 52 points higher at 13,634, France’s up 8 points
at 6,481 and Italy’s 38 points
higher at 22,601, according to data from IG.
The positive open for European
stocks comes after gains on Wednesday on the back of strong U.S. economic data
that tamed investor fears of a looming recession. The ISM non-manufacturing
purchasing managers index showed a surprise rebound in July also
prompting U.S. stocks to climb.
There’s a tepid start expected for the U.K.’s FTSE on Thursday
with the market jittery ahead of the Bank of England’s next monetary policy decision. The central bank
is broadly expected to hike interest rates by 50 basis points, its largest
single increase since 1995.
Such a move would take borrowing costs to 1.75%
as the central bank battles soaring inflation and would be the first half-point
hike since it was made independent from the British government in 1997. The anticipated
hike comes as U.K. inflation hit a new 40-year high of 9.4% in June.
Elsewhere overnight, Asia-Pacific
shares traded higher on Thursday following the rally on Wall Street yesterday
and as investors move on from the tensions over U.S. House Speaker Nancy
Pelosi’s controversial visit to Taiwan.
Meanwhile, U.S.
stock futures inched downward Wednesday evening despite the
major averages snapping a two-day slide earlier in the trading session.
There are no major European data
releases Thursday but earnings are expected from Credit Agricole, Adidas,
Bayer, Lufthansa, Merck, Zalando, Rolls-Royce, Next, Glencore and Adecco Group.
European markets open to close; Bank of England interest rate decision (cnbc.com)
In other news, OPEC+ disappoints. US gasoline demand falls.
OPEC decides
on miniscule oil output increase for September
AUG. 3, 2022 / 9:36 AM
Aug. 3 (UPI) -- Representatives of the world's major oil producing countries voted
Wednesday to increase production slightly, far less than U.S. President Joe Biden hoped for to boost supplies and ease the
pain at the pump for cash-strapped Americans.
Ministers
for members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies
including Saudi Arabia and Russia, known as OPEC+, raised its output targets by
100,000 barrels a day for September.
The
move, which was considered mostly symbolic, was equivalent to 86 seconds of
global oil demand, analysts said, adding that it was considered in the industry
as an insult to Biden.
OPEC
cut back on production during COVID-19 pandemic shutdowns, causing prices to
plummet as demand for fuel around the globe weakened.
With the
decrease in production set to expire next month, oil ministers at this year's
conference faced increasing pressure to act amid staggering inflation combined
with volatile oil markets are causing concern about the future health of the
world economy.
After
gradually increasing output in previous months, the cartel was weighing U.S.
demand for more crude against Russia's insistence on keeping prices high to make up for its
diminished oil exports amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Many
nations have imposed sanctions that prohibit imports of Russian oil, while
Russian President Vladimir Putin has squeezed supply to more than a dozen
European countries that rely on its resources.
While gas
prices remain high, the cost per gallon has eased considerably over the past
month in the United States, mostly due to lower consumer demand.
More
OPEC decides on miniscule oil output increase for
September - UPI.com
Oil
Plunges to Lowest Since February as US Gasoline Demand Drops
Summer
gasoline consumption falls below pandemic levels
OPEC+ to raise output by 100,000 barrels a day in September
Updated on 3:03
Oil plunged after a US inventory report signaled slowing
demand and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to a small
production increase in
September.
West Texas Intermediate futures fell 4% to settle at $90.66
a barrel, the lowest level since early February, before Russia invaded Ukraine.
A bearish government report dragged
prices lower as crude stockpiles rose by more than 4 million barrels, while the
four-week seasonal average for gasoline demand fell below
the 2020 level.
More
Crude Oil Price Updates, OPEC+ Decision on August 3 - Bloomberg
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
RPI
inflation forecast to reach 'astronomical' 17.7% later this year as think-tank
warns a recession will leave millions of Britons in poverty
Jane Denton 2 August 2022 23:34
UK inflation is expected to reach
'astronomical' levels this year and force the Bank of England to raise interest
rates higher for longer than initially forecast, a leading think-tank claims.
Gas price rises and the rocketing
cost of food look set to send inflation to 11 per cent before the end of the
year.
The retail prices index, which is
used to set rail fares and student loans repayments, is expected to hit 17.7
per cent, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social
Research.
CPI inflation is forecast to peak close to 11
per cent in the fourth quarter of this year, returning to around 3 per cent a
year later, the think-tank said.
The NIESR has also warned that a lengthy recession
could be on the cards, hitting millions of vulnerable people, particularly
those in the worst-off parts of the UK.
With prices settling indefinitely at a higher level
relative to incomes, real household incomes are forecast to fall by 2.5 per
cent in 2022 and remain over 7 per cent below their pre-Covid trend beyond
2026, the think-tank said.
'Accumulated savings of poor households are
predicted to fall sharply, leaving them with little or no headroom to cushion
the impact of persistently high prices of necessities', the findings added.
Stephen Millard, the institute’s deputy director,
said the economy would contract for three consecutive quarters, shrinking 1 per
cent by the spring of next year.
More
America's biggest warehouse is running out
of room. It's about to get worse
By Lisa
Baertlein August 3, 2022 1:37 AM GMT+1
SAN BERNARDINO, Calif., Aug 2 (Reuters)
- America's largest warehouse market is full as major U.S. retailers warn of
slowing sales of the clothing, electronics, furniture and other goods that have
packed the distribution centers east of Los Angeles.
The merchandise keeps flooding in from
across the Pacific, and for one of the busiest U.S. warehouse complexes, things
are about to get worse.
Experts have warned the U.S. supply
chain would get hit by the "bullwhip effect" if companies
panic-ordered goods to keep shelves full and got caught out by a downturn in
demand while shipments were still arriving from Asia.
In the largest U.S. warehouse and
distribution market - stretching east from Los Angeles to the area known as the
"Inland Empire" – that moment appears to have arrived.
"We're feeling the sting of the
bullwhip," said Alan Amling, a supply-chain professor at the University of
Tennessee.
The sprawl of Inland Empire warehouses
centered in Riverside and San Bernardino counties grew quickly in recent years
to handle surging demand and goods imported from Asia.
That booming area, visible from space,
anchors an industrial corridor encompassing 1.6 billion square feet of storage
space that extends from the busiest U.S. seaport in Los Angeles to near the
Arizona and Nevada borders. That much storage space is nearly 44 times larger
than New York City's Central Park and 160 times bigger than Tesla Inc's (TSLA.O)
new Gigafactory in Texas.
But a consumer spending pullback now
threatens to swamp warehouses here and around the country with more goods than
they can handle - worsening supply-chain snarls that have stoked inflation.
Retailers left holding unwanted goods are faced with the choice of paying more
money to store them or denting profits by selling them at discount.
More
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
COVID Vaccine
Injuries Quietly Being Compensated Around the World, Are You Eligible?
BY JENNIFER MARGULIS AND JOE WANG JULY 30, 2022
Programs in countries around the
world have begun quietly compensating people who have been injured by or died
as a result of the COVID-19 vaccines.
Humans are biologically diverse, with
respect to both genetic makeup and past environmental exposures. Because of
this, explained neurologist Dr. Robert Lowry, people can react very differently
to the same medication or vaccination. Whenever a new drug or biologic hits the
market, some people will have bad reactions and others may even suffer serious
adverse events as a result.
Even under the best testing
conditions, rare reactions will be missed. This is especially true for any
product which is fast-tracked or authorized for emergency use
before all the phases of
necessary testing are complete.
COVID-19 vaccines are no exception.
Despite the fact that we are constantly and consistently assured that COVID-19
vaccines are safe, and that severe adverse reactions are “very rare,” the FDA
and the CDC with its Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, as well as
the scientists and executives at each of the participating drug companies, know
that some people will become permanently disabled or even die as a result of
vaccination.
In fact, in 2011 the Supreme Court of
the United States (pdf) reiterated the idea that vaccines,
like other pharmaceutical products, are “unavoidably unsafe.”
In many countries around the world,
consumers who are injured as a result of vaccines are covered by government
compensation programs. In the United States there are two government-funded
programs that are designed to compensate consumers for injuries, at the same
time shielding vaccine manufacturers from liability for any serious injuries
their products cause: The National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP) and the Countermeasures Injury
Compensation Program (CICP).
As of July 1, 2022,
not a single claim has been compensated by the CICP. However, 31 COVID-19
countermeasure claims have been denied, “because the standard of proof for
causation was not met and/or a covered injury was not sustained,” according to
the CICP website. “One COVID-19
countermeasure claim, a COVID-19 vaccine claim due to an anaphylactic reaction,
has been determined eligible for compensation and is pending a review of
eligible expenses.”
More
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine
Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19
vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Powdered sodium battery design promises a 15% leap in
energy density
Nick Lavars August 02, 2022
With real
uncertainty clouding the world's supply of lithium, alternative battery
chemistries will be crucial as we continue our uptake of electric vehicles and
mobile devices. One exciting candidate in this space is sodium-ion,
and a research team in Russia has developed a novel battery of this ilk that
boasts some impressive energy density, and may also be resistant to low
temperatures.
Sodium-ion
batteries are gaining attention as a more sustainable alternative to
lithium-ion, owing to the relative abundance and low-cost of the element. These
batteries work much like lithium-ion devices, bouncing ions between a pair of
electrodes via a liquid electrolyte. The new research, from scientists at
Skoltech and Lomonosov Moscow State University, focuses on the negative electrode,
called the cathode.
The team has
developed a novel cathode material, and one that promises significant gains in
energy density. It is a powder made of sodium-vanadium phosphate fluoride,
which is also an approach being explored by researchers elsewhere. But by
carefully configuring how the atoms are organized within their powder, the
scientists believe they've taken a big step forward.
“Both our new
material and the one the industry has recently deployed are called
sodium-vanadium phosphate fluoride – they’re made of atoms of the same
elements," said Skoltech's Stanislav Fedotov, study author. "What
makes them different is how those atoms are arranged and in what ratio they are
contained in the compound."
The team deployed
their novel cathode material in a coin-cell configuration sodium-ion battery
and put it to the test, finding that it offered an increase in energy density
of up to 15% compared to the current leading designs. Further, the new material
could also allow sodium-ion batteries to function in colder climates, according
to the researchers.
“Higher energy
storage capacity is just one of the advantages of this material," said
Fedotov. It also enables the cathode to operate at lower ambient temperatures,
which is particularly relevant for Russia.”
More
Powdered sodium battery design promises a 15% leap in
energy density (newatlas.com)
“But then, finally, the
masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a
deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up
boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against 'real' goods, no
matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for
them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things
which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become
scrap paper. Nobody wants to give away anything against them."
Ludwig von Mises.
No comments:
Post a Comment