Saturday, 27 August 2022

Special Update 27/8/22 The Casino Put Withdrawn.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1182 -41   Brent Crude 100.99

Spot Gold 1738        U S 2 Year Yield 3.37 +0.02

Covid-19 cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Covid-19 cases 27/08/22 World 605,098,736

Deaths 6,485,974

 Powell to Wall Street, Drop Dead.

With apologies.

On October 29, 1975, President Gerald Ford gave a speech denying federal assistance to spare New York City from bankruptcy. The front page of the October 30, 1975 Daily News read: "FORD TO CITY: DROP DEAD"

Fed Chairman Powell well and truly burst Wall Street’s Bubble. The inflation fight trumps everything else he said, including Wall Street’s aspirations.

And poof, the Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen and up to now Powell put was removed in an instant.

He didn’t really have much leeway.  US motor manufacturers are raising prices on their EV products citing rising input costs.

Drought in the USA, Europe and China, plus continued war in the Ukraine, means there’s little prospect of food price inflation falling coming this northern hemisphere harvest season. Probably the reverse if China has to enter the global grain market for rice, wheat and corn [maize.]

The Fed and the other central banks are all still far behind their respective inflation curves.

In the US, President Biden’s “Inflation Reduction Act” is in fact inflationary as is his student debt reductions signed into effect this week.

Chairman Powell knows that high inflation, with some noise here and there, will continue well into next year, until the arriving winter recession kills off demand pull inflation before next year’s crops hopefully kill off food price inflation.

But between now and then, the Fed is all too aware that everyone and their dog are expecting cost of living, Magic Money Tree relief along the lines of 2020, which if it happens and it probably will, is yet more inflationary still.

In the stock casinos, lookout below.

Powell comments fuel 1,000-point market rout Friday as stocks slide for a second week

UPDATED FRI, AUG 26 2022 5:21 PM EDT

Stocks plummeted Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in his Jackson Hole speech the central bank won’t back off in its fight against rapid inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,008.38 points, or 3.03%, to 32,283.40, with losses accelerating into the close. The S&P 500 fell 3.37% to 4,057.66, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 3.94% to 12,141.71.

The major averages declined for a second week. The Dow tumbled 4.2%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite lost roughly 4% and 4.4%, respectively.

Powell reiterated a tough stance against inflation, spurring investors to weigh the implications of higher interest rates kept in place for a longer time.

“Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy,” Powell said.

“We do believe the Fed,” said Zach Hill, head of portfolio management at Horizon Investments. “We believe what they say that rates are going to be higher for longer and we’ve seen some repricing of the cuts in 2023. We think there’s more to go on that front and it’s likely to continue to fuel equity volatility from here.”

The sell-off on Wall Street was broad-based, with just five stocks in the S&P 500 posting gains on Friday.

Powell comments fuel 1,000-point market rout Friday as stocks slide for a second week (cnbc.com)

Ford hikes price of electric Mustang Mach-E by as much as $8,475 due to ‘significant’ battery cost increases

DETROIT –  is hiking the starting prices of its electric Mustang Mach-E crossover by more than $8,000 for some models, as it reopens order banks for the 2023 model year.

The company on Thursday said the markups – ranging between $3,000 and $8,475, depending on the model and battery – are due to “significant material cost increases, continued strain on key supply chains, and rapidly evolving market conditions.”

The Mach-E is the latest electric vehicle to experience a price increase, as raw material costs for batteries for electric vehicles more than doubled during the coronavirus pandemic.

The starting prices for the 2023 Mustang Mach-E will now range from about $47,000 to $70,000, up from roughly $44,000 to $62,000 for the 2022 model year. Prices exclude taxes and shipping/delivery costs.

Ford earlier this month also raised the starting prices of its electric F-150 Lightning pickup by between $6,000 and $8,500, depending on the model. The automaker cited similar reasons for those increases, specifically related to raw materials such as lithium, cobalt and nickel that are used in batteries for the vehicles.

Others automakers including  and  also significantly raised prices on their newest electric vehicles.

In addition to the new pricing, Ford said it changed options and increased capabilities for some Mach-E models. It also is increasing shipping charges on the Mach-E by $200 to $1,300 on all models.

Ford said the higher prices will go into effect for new orders placed starting Tuesday, when order banks reopen.

Customers who have existing, unscheduled 2022 model year orders will receive a “private offer” to convert to a 2023 model year vehicle, the company said. It’s not immediately clear what price those customers would be offered.

Ford Mustang Mach-E price hiked by as much as $8,475 due to battery costs (cnbc.com)

Continued inflation inevitably leads to catastrophe.

Ludwig von Mises.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.     

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Price cap in need of urgent reform following energy bill hike

FRIDAY 26 AUGUST 2022 9:41 AM

Energy specialist Cornwall Insight has reignited calls for the energy price cap to be reformed, following the latest hike in household energy bills this winter.

Ofgem has announced the cap will rise from £1,971 per year to £3,549 per year in October, an 80 per cent increase which could drag tens of millions of Brits into fuel poverty.

Dr Craig Lowrey, senior consultant at Cornwall Insight highlighted that the cap was never intended to contain wholesale costs for energy users, and was created in different market conditions to ensure long-term customers weren’t overcharged to fund low deals for switchers.

Instead of a cap, he called for targeted protections for vulnerable energy users.

He said: “We urge, as we have done previously, for the cap to be reviewed and mechanisms for protecting the most vulnerable, such as social tariffs, to be considered as viable alternatives.”

Cornwall Insight is not alone in criticising the price cap.

Tory MP John Penrose – who first proposed the cap in Parliament – has confirmed on social media he no longer considers it fit for purpose either.

It has also been criticised by a range of energy bosses including Greg Jackson, chief executive at Octopus Energy, who favours a relative price cap.

More

Price cap in need of urgent reform following energy bill hike (cityam.com)

Bank of England may launch biggest rate hike since 1989 if energy bill support fuels inflation

THURSDAY 25 AUGUST 2022 5:45 PM

The Bank of England may have to launch the biggest rate hike since 1989 if the government injects huge sums of money into the economy to cope with the cost of living crisis, a Wall Street bank said today.

Borrowing costs could rise 75 basis points in November to deal with a historic inflation peak caused by cash transfers stimulating spending by shielding household finances from sky-high energy bills, according to Bank of America.

The warning illustrates the tough trade offs either Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak will face when shaping a cost of living support package after one of them enters Number 10 on 5 September.

“Providing stimulus mainly via transfers to households would leave in place a very high inflation peak” of 15 per cent, Bank of America said.

Governor Andrew Bailey and the rest of the monetary policy committee have already lifted rates six times in a row, including a 50 basis point hike, the biggest rise in over 25 years, earlier this month. 

Inflation is running at 40-year high of 10.1 per cent.

Households are bracing for the energy watchdog to announce a potential 80 per cent upgrade to the bill cap tomorrow, sending the average annual bill to over £3,500.

Rising bills will tip millions of Brits into fuel poverty, prompting a string of economists today to warn the government is running out of time to save households and businesses from the cost of living crunch.

Some experts have argued sending people money to offset their high energy bills will push inflation higher by keeping demand in the economy high.

However, failing to offer more support could deal long-term damage to the economy by letting high energy prices erode Brits’ finances.

Calls to cap bills at their current level have gained momentum due to the huge surge in wholesale energy prices now likely meaning most households will struggle to pay bills without cutting back elsewhere.Gas prices climbed a fifth in just a week at the beginning of August, the Office for National Statistics said today.

Bank of America said if the government intervened in the market and held bills at their present level of around £1,900 for two years, “support would run to £125bn,” around double the cost of the furlough scheme. 

Even under that scenario, the UK would still suffer “a modest recession,” the bank added. 

More

Bank of England may have to hike rates 75 basis points in November (cityam.com)

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Moderna sues Pfizer/BioNTech over COVID vaccine

26 August, 2022

Moderna is suing Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech for alleged patent infringement in the development of the first COVID-19 vaccine approved in the US.

The lawsuit, which seeks undetermined monetary damages, alleges they copied technology that Moderna had developed years before the pandemic.

Moderna chief executive Stephane Bancel said: "We are filing these lawsuits to protect the innovative mRNA technology platform that we pioneered, invested billions of dollars in creating, and patented during the decade preceding the COVID-19 pandemic."

Mr Bancel said the company is continuing to use the technology to develop treatments for influenza and HIV, as well as autoimmune and cardiovascular diseases and rare forms of cancer.

"We believe that Pfizer and BioNTech unlawfully copied Moderna's inventions, and they have continued to use them without permission," Moderna's chief legal officer Shannon Thyme Klinger added.

Moderna Inc and the partnership of Pfizer Inc and BioNTech were two of the first groups to develop a vaccine for COVID.

Just a decade old, Moderna had been an innovator in the messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine technology, which works by teaching human cells how to make a protein that will trigger an immune response.

The technology helped to speed up the approval process for the jabs - which usually takes years to complete - and enabled the vaccine to be developed so quickly.

Germany-based BioNTech had also been working in this field when it partnered with the US pharma giant Pfizer.

Moderna alleges Pfizer/BioNTech, without permission, copied mRNA technology that it had patented between 2010 and 2016, well before COVID-19 emerged in 2019.

Early in the pandemic, Moderna said it would not enforce its COVID patents to help others develop their own vaccines, but in March this year it told companies, such as Pfizer and BioNTech, that it expected them to respect its intellectual property rights.

In revenue, Moderna's vaccine has brought in $10.4 billion (£8.8bn) this year, while Pfizer's has raised about $22 billion (£18.6bn).

More

Moderna sues Pfizer/BioNTech over COVID vaccine (msn.com)

Covid-19 infections continue to fall in all areas of UK

Rates remain lowest among school-aged children.

Covid-19 infections in the UK are continuing to fall and are now at their lowest level for more than two months, figures show.

A total of 1.4 million people in private households are estimated to have had the coronavirus in the week to August 16, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This is a drop of 16% from 1.7 million the previous week.

Infections hit 3.8 million in early July during the spread of the Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants of the virus, but have fallen in recent weeks.

Health experts have warned levels are likely to rise again in the autumn and winter, however.

A new booster jab will be offered to everyone in the UK aged 50 and over from next month, as well as those with underlying health conditions, to increase protection ahead of future waves.

Sarah Crofts, head of analytical outputs for the Covid-19 infection survey, said: “Infections continue to head in the right direction across all of the UK and are now at levels similar to those last seen in mid-June.

“Rates remain lowest in school-aged children and we will closely monitor the data to see how the return of schools in September may affect this.”

Total UK infections are now at their lowest level since the week ending June 11, when the BA.4/BA.5 wave of the virus was beginning to grow.

Some 1.2 million people in England were likely to have tested positive for Covid-19 in the week to August 16, the equivalent of around one in 45, the ONS said.

This is down from 1.4 million, or one in 40, in the previous survey in early August.

In Wales, infections stood at 65,500 in the latest week, or one in 45 people, compared with 72,600, or one in 40, in the previous survey.

The latest estimate for people testing positive in Scotland is 135,000, or around one in 40, down from 164,100, or one in 30.

In Northern Ireland, infections were estimated to be 26,400, or one in 70 people, down from 36,600, or one in 50.

World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccineshttps://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Trackerhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine trackerhttps://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some more useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Battery made of aluminum, sulfur and salt proves fast, safe and low-cost

Michael Irving  August 24, 2022

Engineers at MIT have developed a new battery design using common materials – aluminum, sulfur and salt. Not only is the battery low-cost, but it’s resistant to fire and failures, and can be charged very fast, which could make it useful for powering a home or charging electric vehicles.

Lithium-ion batteries have dominated the field for the last few decades, thanks to their reliability and high energy density. However, lithium is becoming scarcer and more expensive, and the cells can be hazardous, exploding or bursting into flames if damaged or improperly used. Cheaper, safer alternatives are needed, especially as the world transitions towards renewable energy and electric vehicles.

So the MIT team set out to design a new type of battery out of readily available, inexpensive materials. After a search and some trial and error, they settled on aluminum for one electrode and sulfur for the other, topped off with an electrolyte of molten chloro-aluminate salt. Not only are all of these ingredients cheap and common, but they’re not flammable, so there’s no risk of fire or explosion.

In tests, the team demonstrated that the new battery cells can withstand hundreds of charge cycles, and charge very quickly – in some experiments, less than a minute. The cells would cost just one sixth of the price of a similar-sized lithium-ion cell.

They can not only operate at high temperatures of up to 200 °C (392 °F) but they actually work better when hotter – at 110 °C (230 °F), the batteries charged 25 times faster than they did at 25 °C (77 °F). Importantly, the researchers say the battery doesn’t need any external energy to reach this elevated temperature – its usual cycle of charging and discharging is enough to keep it that warm.

Although the type of salt in the electrolyte was chosen because it has a low melting point, it coincidentally has another benefit – it naturally prevents the formation of dendrites. These metal tendrils, which gradually grow between the two electrodes until they cause a short circuit, are a major hurdle for batteries, particularly lithium-ion cells.

More

Battery made of aluminum, sulfur and salt proves fast, safe and low-cost (newatlas.com)

This weekend’s music diversion.  Germany’s very underrated Johann F. Fasch, greatly respected by one J. S. Bach. Approx. 9 minutes.  

Johann Friedrich Fasch (1688-1758) - Concerto D-Dur in drei Chören

Johann Friedrich Fasch (1688-1758) - Concerto D-Dur in drei Chören - YouTube

This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 14 minutes.

This is Why Evans Gambit is the Greatest Opening Ever!

This is Why Evans Gambit is the Greatest Opening Ever! - YouTube

This week’s maths update. Complex numbers. Complex numbers come just before imaginary numbers in most government accounts.

Approx. 4 minutes.  Some great comments too.

Complex Numbers are Awesome

Complex Numbers are Awesome - YouTube

The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.

Ernest Hemingway.

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