Baltic Dry Index. 1279 -72 Brent Crude 96.15
Spot Gold 1747 US
2 Year Yield 3.25 +0.03
Wall St Week Ahead: Summer rebound in
U.S. stocks gains fans among chart-watching investors
NEW YORK, Aug 19 (Reuters) - The rebound in U.S.
stocks is gaining believers among investors who study market trends, bolstering
hopes for equities in the second half of 2022.
After notching its worst first half since 1970, the
S&P 500 has bounced some 15% from its mid-June low, fueled by
stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and hopes the economy can avoid a
recession even as the Federal Reserve raises rates to tame inflation.
The
S&P 500 closed down about 1.29% on Friday, ending a streak of four straight
weekly gains. read more
Still, those who
look to market phenomena such as breadth, momentum and trading patterns to
inform their investment decisions see a more optimistic picture, and are
growing convinced the recent gains in equities are unlikely to fade.
Several
indicators "really suggest that that low we had in June is certainly more
durable than the low we had in May or March,” said Willie Delwiche, an
investment strategist at market research firm All Star Charts. "It’s a
rally that can be leaned in to, not one that needs to be feared at this point.”
----
One important technical indicator was hit earlier this month, when the S&P
500 recovered 50% of its bear market price decline. Since World War Two, the
index has not gone on to make a new low after such a move, according to Sam
Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. read more
Some indicators
do not support more gains. Analysts at BofA Global Research said that stocks
have historically bottomed when the sum of inflation and trailing
price/earnings was less than 20. That number currently stands at 28.5, the bank
wrote on Wednesday.
At the same
time, the U.S. Treasury yield curve typically steepens around market bottoms,
according to Strategas' Sohn. The current shape of the curve, however, shows
yields for shorter-dated bonds exceeding those for many longer-dated ones, a
sign that has preceded past recessions. (LINK)
More
European markets close lower as investors digest gloomy German data
UPDATED FRI, AUG 19 2022 11:36 AM
EDT
European markets closed lower Friday, tracking
global uncertainty as investors chart the course for monetary policy and
continue to digest corporate earnings reports.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 provisionally
ended 0.8% lower, with travel and leisure stocks leading losses, down 3%.
Health care stocks, meanwhile, added 0.7%.
Investor sentiment has been tepid since mid-week
after minutes
from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting showed policymakers
would not consider pulling back on interest rate hikes until inflation came
down substantially, despite a slight slowing in inflation that had offered some
hope for a less aggressive tightening path.
On the data front, European
investors were digesting July’s U.K. retail sales and German producer prices on
Friday.
Markets
in Asia-Pacific were mixed on Friday, taking their cues from a
muted Wall Street. Stocks
slipped lower stateside as the summer rally appeared to falter,
with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite on pace to end the week on a sour
note.
British cinema chain saw
shares plunge Friday on reports that it is preparing
to file for bankruptcy after failing to entice viewers back to
movie theatres following a pandemic lull.
The stock was down around 67% in
mid-afternoon trade in London.
It comes after reports first cited in The Wall Street Journal that
the company, which owns Regal Cinemas, has engaged a team of lawyers and
consultants to advise on the bankruptcy process.
Cineworld is the latest casualty of
the movie theater industry, which has struggled to regain its footing following
coronavirus pandemic lockdowns, with viewers increasingly inclined to stream
movie releases at home.
Europe
markets: Tracking global caution (cnbc.com)
Record jump in German producer prices adds to gloomy
outlook
PUBLISHED FRI, AUG 19 2022 4:54 AM EDT
The economic outlook for Germany is gloomy due to
energy price rises and supply chain disruptions, the finance ministry said on
Friday, a message underscored by a record jump in producer prices.
The German economy, Europe’s largest, stagnated in
the second quarter, with the war in Ukraine, soaring energy prices, the
pandemic and supply disruptions bringing it to the edge of a downturn.
“The outlook for the further development (of the
economy) is currently noticeably gloomy,” the ministry said in its August
monthly report, adding that it was marked by “a high degree of uncertainty”.
“The significantly lower gas supplies from Russia,
the persistently high price increases for energy and, increasingly, other
goods, as well as the longer-than-expected supply chain disruptions, also in
connection with China’s zero-COVID policy, are weighing heavily on the
economy’s development,” it said.
Producer prices, regarded as a leading indicator
for inflation, saw their highest jumps on record both on the month and on the
year in July, driven primarily by high energy prices, said the federal
statistics office on Friday.
Energy prices as a whole were up 105% compared with
July 2021, due mainly to higher prices for natural gas and electricity, the
office said.
Feeding into already high energy costs, the German
government will impose levies on gas consumers from Oct. 1 that will add
several hundred euros to the average family’s annual energy bill. To cushion
the blow, sales taxes on gas are set to be reduced to 7% from 19% while the
levies are in place.
Higher energy prices mean inflation is unlikely to
cool off anytime soon: Germany’s annual inflation rate in July was 8.5%, in
line with the wider eurozone’s record rate of 8.9%.
The German government in April forecast 2022
inflation at 6.1%. It will present updated economic projections on Oct. 12, the
finance ministry said.
Record jump in
German producer prices adds to gloomy outlook (cnbc.com)
China's July Russian coal imports hit
5-yr high as West shuns Moscow
August 20, 2022 4:44 AM GMT+1
SINGAPORE, Aug 20 (Reuters) - China's coal imports
from Russia jumped 14% in July from a year earlier to their highest in at least
five years, as China bought discounted coal while Western countries shunned
Russian cargoes over its invasion of Ukraine.
China brought in 7.42 million tonnes of coal from
Russia last month, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on
Saturday. That was the highest monthly figure since comparable statistics began
in 2017, up from 6.12 million tonnes in June and 6.49 million tonnes in July
2021.
Western
countries were avoiding cargoes from Russia ahead of a European Union ban on
Russian coal that came into force on Aug. 11, aimed at reducing the Kremlin's
energy revenue over its February invasion. read more
The ban has
forced Russia to target buyers such as China and India and sell at a steep
discount.
Russian thermal
coal with a heating value of 5,500 kilocalories (kcal) traded around $150 a
tonne on a cost-and-freight basis in late July, while coal of the same quality
at Australia's Newcastle port was assessed at more than $210 a tonne on a
free-on-board (FOB) basis.
Some Chinese traders expect more Russian coal to flow into China
in the fourth quarter when utilities in northern China build stocks for the winter
heating season.
More
China's
July Russian coal imports hit 5-yr high as West shuns Moscow | Reuters
Russia is China's top oil supplier
for 3rd mth in July- customs data
August 20, 2022 4:59 AM GMT+1
Aug
20 (Reuters) - Russia held its spot as China's top oil supplier for a third month
in July, data showed on Saturday, as independent refiners stepped up purchases
of discounted supplies while cutting shipments from rival suppliers such as
Angola and Brazil. read more
Imports of
Russian oil, including supplies pumped via the East Siberia Pacific Ocean
pipeline and seaborne shipments from Russia's European and Far Eastern ports,
totalled 7.15 million tonnes, up 7.6% from a year ago, data from the Chinese
General Administration of Customs showed.
Still, Russian supplies in July, equivalent to
about 1.68 million barrels per day (bpd), were below May's record of close to 2
million bpd. China is Russia's largest oil buyer.
Imports from second-ranking Saudi Arabia rebounded
last month from June, which was the lowest in more than three years, to 6.56
million tonnes, or 1.54 million bpd, but still slightly below year-ago level.
Year-to-date imports from Russia totalled 48.45
million tonnes, up 4.4% on the year, still trailing behind Saudi Arabia, which
supplied 49.84 million tonnes, or 1% below the year-ago level.
---- The
strong Russian purchases squeezed out competing supplies from Angola and
Brazil, which fell 27% year-on-year and 58%, respectively.
Customs reported no imports from Venezuela or Iran
last month. State oil firms have shunned purchases since late 2019 for fear of
falling foul of secondary U.S. sanctions.
Imports
from Malaysia, often used as a transfer point in the past two years for oil
originating from Iran and Venezuela, soared 183% on the year, to 3.34 million
tonnes, and up from June's 2.65 million tonnes.
More
Russia
is China's top oil supplier for 3rd mth in July- customs data | Reuters
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Shell cuts output at German Rhineland
refinery due to drought
August 18, 2022 5:21 PM GMT+1
FRANKFURT,
Aug 18 (Reuters) - Oil major Shell (SHEL.L) on
Thursday said it had to cut output at its German Rhineland refining facility,
which makes fuels, heating oil and petrochemicals, citing low Rhine levels that
have made the transport of goods via the river more challenging.
"Due to the
low Rhine water level we have reduced the capacity of Shell Energy and
Chemicals Park Rhineland. The situation regarding supply is challenging but
carefully managed," the company said in an e-mailed statement.
The company did not say to what level capacity of
the site which can process up to 17 million tonnes of crude oil a year, or
345,000 barrel per day, had been cut.
Continued extremely low water levels on the Rhine
have inflated freight rates as some ships are touching the riverbed even when
empty, said Lars van Wageningen at shipping consultancy Insights Global.
The water level at the Rhine chokepoint of Kaub
near Koblenz was at 34 centimetres on Thursday, still near lows last seen in
2018. Vessels need about 1.5 metres to sail fully loaded.
Shell cuts output
at German Rhineland refinery due to drought | Reuters
Low water levels on Danube reveal
sunken WW2 German warships
August 19, 2022 12:28 PM
GMT+1
PRAHOVO, Serbia, Aug 19 (Reuters) - Europe's worst
drought in years has pushed the mighty river Danube to one of its lowest levels
in almost a century, exposing the hulks of dozens of explosives-laden German
warships sunk during World War Two near Serbia's river port town of Prahovo.
The vessels were among hundreds scuttled along the
Danube by Nazi Germany's Black Sea fleet in 1944 as they retreated from
advancing Soviet forces, and still hamper river traffic during low water
levels.
However, this year's drought - viewed by scientists
as a consequence of global warming - has exposed more than 20 hulks on a
stretch of the Danube near Prahovo in eastern Serbia, many of which still
contain tonnes of ammunition and explosives and pose a danger to shipping.
"The German flotilla has left behind a big
ecological disaster that threatens us, people of Prahovo," said Velimir
Trajilovic, 74, a pensioner from Prahovo who wrote a book about the German
ships.
Workers in the
local fishing industry are also at risk, including from Romania which lies just
across the river.
Months
of drought and record-high temperatures have snarled river traffic on vital
arteries in other parts of Europe, including Germany, Italy and France. In
Serbia, the authorities have resorted to dredging to keep navigation lanes on
the Danube open. read more
By Prahovo, some
of the hulks have narrowed the navigable section on this stretch of the Danube
to just 100 metres (330 feet) from 180 metres.
Strewn across the riverbed, some of the ships still
boast turrets, command bridges, broken masts and twisted hulls, while others
lie mostly submerged under sand banks.
In March, the Serbian government invited a tender
for the salvage of the hulks and removal of ammunition and explosives. The cost
of the operation was estimated at 29 million euros ($30 million).
Low water levels
on Danube reveal sunken WW2 German warships | Reuters
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Can COVID-19 cause hair loss? Doctors see an influx of patients
with the symptom
Fri, August 19, 2022 at 11:05 AM
Clinicians are seeing an influx
of patients experiencing an unsettling side effect after COVID-19: losing their hair.
Dr. Brian Abittan, the director
of skin and hair rejuvenation at Mount Sinai Health System in New York, said
that he sees multiple patients a week who have reported hair loss after
COVID-19.
"A day doesn't go by that I
don't get asked about it," Abittan told MedPage Today.
Although more patients are
clearly reporting the symptom after COVID, there isn't robust data describing how many patients
experience this phenomenon or what factors put someone at risk for it. While
there are still many unanswered questions about COVID-related hair loss,
experts say the good news is that it appears to be temporary and clinicians
should reassure patients that their hair will very likely grow back.
Some evidence has shown that
there is an increased risk of hair loss following COVID infection. A study
published in Nature Medicine last month found that hair loss was one of a wide range
of symptoms that post-COVID
patients reported to their primary care physicians.
Patients with a history of COVID
were nearly four times as likely to develop hair loss than those who weren't
infected, the researchers found.
Additionally, a study in the
Lancet journal estimated that 22% of patients who were
hospitalized with COVID experienced hair loss after their illness.
The most common type of hair loss
seen in post-COVID patients is telogen effluvium.
"The assumption is that
COVID-related hair loss is very similar to stress-related hair loss,"
Abittan said.
More
Can COVID-19 cause hair loss? Doctors see an influx of patients with the symptom (yahoo.com)
World
Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
The Spectator
Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Molecular Achilles' heel breaks
down toxic PFAS "forever chemicals"
Michael Irving August 18, 2022
Toxic PFAS
compounds earn themselves the nickname of “forever chemicals” thanks to their
tendency to persist in the environment for decades. In a new study, chemists
claim to have found an Achilles’ heel to these ultra-stable molecules, using a
relatively simple chemical reaction to “decapitate” some kinds of PFAS into
benign end products.
Per- and
polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) is an umbrella term for thousands of
chemicals that have been commonly used for their water-repelling properties in
products such as non-stick cookware, food packaging, waterproof clothing and
firefighting foam. However, a growing body of research over the last few
decades has linked PFAS chemicals to a range
of health problems, such as diabetes,
infertility, hypothyroidism, and kidney and liver
cancer, leading the EPA to lower the safe threshold
in drinking water to near zero.
Worse still, decades of
widespread use coupled with an infamously long life means that exposure is hard
to avoid. A recent study found that PFAS
levels in rainwater all over the
world exceed the EPA’s guidelines, even in samples taken from remote areas like
Antarctica or the Tibetan Plateau.
Scientists have been
investigating ways to break down the chemicals using boron
nitride powders or photochemical
reactions. In the new study, researchers
at Northwestern University have found a new way to degrade PFAS compounds using
simple and inexpensive chemicals and under mild conditions.
PFAS gets its incredible and frustrating stability
from its molecular structure – it’s made up mostly of carbon and fluorine
bonds, which are the strongest known to organic chemistry. But the team
discovered a weakness at the head of the molecule, where charged groups of
atoms like oxygen can be found.
The team targeted this area instead, by heating
PFAS samples to between 80 and 120 °C (176 and 248 °F) in dimethyl sulfoxide as
a solvent and sodium hydroxide as a reagent. And sure enough, this head group
was “decapitated” from the molecule, leaving a reactive tail that cascaded
through the structure.
“That triggered all these
reactions, and it started spitting out fluorine atoms from these compounds to
form fluoride, which is the safest form of fluorine,” said William Dichtel,
lead author of the study. “Although carbon-fluorine bonds are super strong, that
charged head group is the Achilles’ heel.”
Using this process, the team
successfully broke down 10 different types of PFAS, including PFOA and a
particularly problematic chemical known as GenX, degrading up to 100% within 24
hours. The researchers say future work will continue testing the method on
other types of PFAS, of which there are thousands.
The research was published in
the journal Science.
Molecular Achilles' heel breaks down toxic PFAS "forever chemicals" (newatlas.com)
This
weekend’s music diversion. Approx. 4
minutes.
Handel:
Solomon-Nightingale chorus
May no rash intruder disturb their soft hours;
Handel:
Solomon-Nightingale chorus - YouTube
This
weekend’s chess update. Approx. 9 minutes.
Pragg
Beats Super GM in "10 Moves"!
Pragg Beats Super
GM in "10 Moves"! - YouTube
This
week’s “easy” maths update. Approx. 38
minutes. Well, it is summer, and we’ve got to find something to do, after all.
Why
is calculus so ... EASY ?
Why is calculus so
... EASY ? - YouTube
“Men
occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and
hurry off as if nothing has happened.”
Sir Winston
Churchill.
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