Thursday, 25 August 2022

Free Money For [Nearly] All.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1213 -58    Brent Crude 101.76

Spot Gold 1758          US 2 Year Yield 3.36 +0.07

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 25/08/22 World 603,568,534

Deaths 6,480,502

“Fiat-money! Let the State 'create' money, and make the poor rich, and free them from the bonds of the capitalists! How foolish to forego the opportunity of making everybody rich, and consequently happy, that the State's right to create money gives it! How wrong to forego it simply because this would run counter to the interests of the rich! How wicked of the economists to assert that it is not within the power of the State to create wealth by means of the printing press!

Ludwig von Mises

It is day one of the Fed’s annual 5 star, posh Jackson Hole Wyoming juncket. Well, why not, they deserve it after all. Who else could have got inflation so right.

Fed Chairman Powell’s big day comes tomorrow when he gets to tell the rest of us just how he intends to tame inflation, avoid a recession, prevent a real estate bust and save the US mid-term elections for the far left wing Democrats.

In the casinos today and tomorrow, largely meaningless noise. Look away from that rising oil price and Treasury yield, now.

Asia markets rise ahead of Jackson Hole; Hong Kong cancels morning session on typhoon warning

UPDATED THU, AUG 25 2022 12:07 AM EDT

Markets in the Asia-Pacific traded mostly higher ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium kicking off in the U.S. Hong Kong’s morning session was canceled due to the issuance of a typhoon warning.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite was up 0.09% while the Shenzhen Component was down 0.55%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was 0.56% higher while the Topix was up 0.38%. Australia’s S&P/ASX was also up by 0.8%.

In South Korea, the Kospi rose 0.79% and the Kosdaq was up 1.47% as the Bank of Korea raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points.

Stocks in the U.S. rose overnight, snapping a three-day slide in the Dow and the S&P 500, as investors awaited more clarity on the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation.

In currencies, the U.S. dollar rose as high as 109.11 overnight before falling back to around 108.6.

“Expectations of a hawkish message from FOMC Chair Powell at Jackson Hole will likely keep upward pressure on the USD in the run‑up to his speech on Friday,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s Senior Economist and Currency Strategist Kristina Clifton said in a report.

Hong Kong is slated to report July’s trade data later in the afternoon.

China to expand economy-stabilizing package for recovery and growth: Xinhua

China plans to implement more measures as part of its policy package to stabilize its economy, Xinhua reported, citing a meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang.

That’s part of stimulus efforts for recovery and growth, and taskforces will be deployed regionally to implement the policies more rapidly, the report said.

Separately, the country’s human resources and social security ministry announced it will focus on expanding jobs and promoting policies that support stabilizing the job market, according to a Reuters report.

Vice Minister Li Zhong said at a press conference that the nation’s employment situation has generally stayed stable for a long time, but noted that there’s been persistent long-term pressure.

Asia markets: Jackson Hole, HKEX cancels morning session on typhoon warning (cnbc.com)

In yet more inflation news, there’s more free money for nearly everyone. Why didn’t we think of free money for all before?

Biden forgives millions of student loans; critics fear inflation

WASHINGTON, Aug 24 (Reuters) - President Joe Biden said on Wednesday the U.S. government will forgive $10,000 in student loans for millions of debt-saddled former college students, keeping a pledge he made in the 2020 campaign for the White House.

The move could boost support for his fellow Democrats in the November congressional elections, but some economists said it may fuel inflation and some Republicans in the U.S. Congress questioned whether the president had the legal authority to cancel the debt.

Debt forgiveness will free up hundreds of billions of dollars for new consumer spending that could be aimed at homebuying and other big-ticket expenses, according to economists who said this would add a new wrinkle to the country's inflation fight.

The actions are "for families that need them the most - working and middle class people hit especially hard during the pandemic," Biden said during remarks at the White House. He pledged no high-income households would benefit, addressing a central criticism of the plan.

"I will never apologize for helping working Americans and middle class, especially not to the same folks who voted for a $2 trillion tax cut that mainly benefited the wealthiest Americans and the biggest corporations," Biden said, referring to a Republican tax cut passed under former President Donald Trump.

Borrower balances have been frozen since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak, with no payments required on most federal student loans since March 2020. Many Democrats had pushed for Biden to forgive as much as $50,000 per borrower.

Republicans mostly opposed student loan forgiveness, calling it unfair because it will disproportionately help people earning higher incomes.

"President Biden's student loan socialism is a slap in the face to every family who sacrificed to save for college, every graduate who paid their debt, and every American who chose a certain career path or volunteered to serve in our Armed Forces in order to avoid taking on debt," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said Wednesday.

More

Biden forgives millions of student loans; critics fear inflation | Reuters

Finally, yet more bad news on the growing food price inflation front. If China becomes a large scale buyer of rice and wheat on the international markets, just how high will grain prices rise?

 

China warns of 'severe' threat to harvest from worst heatwave on record

Issued on: 24/08/2022 - 07:46

 

Beijing (AFP) – China's autumn harvest is under "severe threat" from high temperatures and drought, authorities have warned, urging action to protect crops in the face of the country's hottest summer on record.

 

The world's second-largest economy has been hit by record temperatures, flash floods and droughts this summer -- phenomena that scientists have warned are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change.

Southern China has recorded its longest sustained period of high temperatures and sparse rain since records began more than 60 years ago, the agriculture ministry said.

Four government departments issued a notice on Tuesday urging the conservation of "every unit of water" to protect crops.

"The rapid development of drought superimposed with high temperatures and heat damage has caused a severe threat to autumn crop production," the statement said.

China produces more than 95 percent of the rice, wheat and maize it consumes, but a reduced harvest could mean increased demand for imports in the world's most populous nation -- putting further pressure on global supply already strained by the conflict in Ukraine.

Temperatures as high as 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit) have led multiple Chinese provinces to impose power cuts, as cities struggle to cope with a surge in demand for electricity that is partly driven by people cranking up the air conditioning to cope with the heat.

The megacities of Shanghai and Chongqing have cut outdoor decorative lighting, while authorities in Sichuan province have imposed industrial power cuts after water levels dropped at key hydroelectric plants.

More than 1,500 people were moved out of the area surrounding Chongqing on Monday after hot and dry conditions sparked multiple wildfires, according to state news agency Xinhua.

More

China warns of 'severe' threat to harvest from worst heatwave on record (france24.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.  

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

In the Great Magic Money Tree Real Estate Bubble, a wobble. But on free fiat money for all, real estate prices only g up, right?

U.S. house values fell for the first time since 2012, Zillow says. Sellers and buyers are facing a very different housing market to 2020.

Last Updated: Aug. 23, 2022 at 4:27 p.m. ET First Published: Aug. 22, 2022 at 3:31 p.m. ET

The housing market isn’t crashing, but it’s definitely feeling the burn.

After two frenzied years, home buying is cooling off as mortgage rates rise. Some experts in the field are calling it a “housing recession.” 

U.S. home values fell in July by 0.1%, compared to the month before, a new Zillow report said.

While deceleration in home-price growth is typical for this time of the year, Zillow noted, the small decline is the first monthly dip since 2012. 

The typical U.S. home value fell by $366 in July, and is now $357,107, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index.

Given the dip in July, Zillow revised its forecast for the growth in home values to 2.4% through the end of July 2023. The current rate of growth is 16%.

But this hardly counts as a crash in prices, because the typical home value is also up 44.5% from July 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic. 

At this point, sellers are finding themselves with fewer offers, and are having to offer more concessions themselves to entice buyers. 

Buyers in turn are gaining more options, seeing inventory gradually rise, as the pendulum slowly swings into their direction.

The dip in July is a “badly needed rebalancing that gives home buyers more options, more time to shop and more negotiating power,” Skylar Olsen, chief economist at Zillow Z, +2.42%, said in a statement. 

Homes have become unaffordable for many, given the high prices and mortgage rates. “As prices soften, many will renew their interest, and we will continue our progress back to ‘normal’,” Olsen added. 

Home value declines were largest in San Jose, Calif., San Francisco, Calif., Phoenix, Ariz., and Austin, Texas. In these markets, the time listings spend on the market is rising fast.

“Our prices have come off of their irrational highs of the last 18 months. It’s kind of a rebalancing,” Dave Walsh, vice president and manager of Compass Realty San Jose, told MarketWatch. 

More

U.S. house values fell for the first time since 2012, Zillow says. Sellers and buyers are facing a very different housing market to 2020. - MarketWatch

72% of recent homebuyers have regrets about their purchases. As the market cools, these steps can help you avoid disappointment

PUBLISHED TUE, AUG 23 2022 2:59 PM EDT UPDATED TUE, AUG 23 2022 6:23 PM EDT

As the U.S. housing market cools, feverish competition for homes in the past couple of years has left 72% having regrets about their home purchases, according to a recent survey from Clever Real Estate.

The number-one reason for the buyer’s remorse: 30% of respondents said they spent too much money.

The second most common regret was rushing the home-buying process, with 30% saying their purchase decision was rushed and 26% indicating they bought too quickly.

The online survey was conducted in July and included about 1,000 individuals who bought a home in 2021 or 2022. It was commissioned by Anytime Estimate, which is owned by Clever Real Estate.

Offer compromises contributed to regrets

The hot seller’s market in recent years prompted buyers to go above and beyond to seal the deals on their prospective homes — which contributed to regrets.

To that point, 31% of buyers said they paid over the asking price. The median amount paid over the listing price was $65,000.

Notably, tight competition led 36% to make an offer on a home without seeing it in person first.

Even so, the competition was fierce, with 80% of buyers saying they made more than one offer, with 41% making five offers or more. About one in three buyers said they searched for three months for their homes, while one in eight took six months or more.

More

Why recent homebuyers have regrets about their purchases (cnbc.com)

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.

A Specialist In Viral Infections Explains Why We Need Updated Covid-19 Vaccines

Matthew Binnicker  Aug 24, 2022,05:28pm EDT

Dr. Matt Binnicker, an expert in clinical virology and the diagnosis of infectious diseases, discusses how mutations allows the Covid-19 virus to slip past our immune system and why updated variant-specific vaccines are needed, similar to the flu.

Despite the availability of Covid-19 vaccines, the virus continues to cause a surge in infections in many parts of the world. While vaccines have demonstrated continued efficacy in reducing the incidence of severe disease and death, the emergence of new variants, such as delta and omicron, has resulted in decreased protection against infection and mild-to-moderate illness. Many who avoided infection during the first two years of the pandemic through masking, social distancing, and subsequent vaccination, have been infected over the past 8 months as highly transmissible strains of the virus have spread like wildfire. This has raised important questions regarding why reduced protection occurs over time and has led the FDA to recommend that vaccine manufacturers reformulate vaccines to include recent variants, which are expected to be available this fall.

Why are vaccinated individuals contracting Covid-19?

As Covid-19 vaccines became available in late 2020 and early 2021, there was a high level of optimism that the pandemic would soon end. In fact, many states with a high vaccination rate experienced an initial decline in the incidence of infection. However, as 2021 continued, new variants began to emerge that showed properties of increased transmissibility and immune evasion, meaning that prior immunity wasn’t necessarily protective against a new or repeat infection.

More

A Specialist In Viral Infections Explains Why We Need Updated Covid-19 Vaccines (forbes.com)

Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Trackerhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine trackerhttps://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Powder brushed onto electrodes brings high-capacity batteries closer

Nick Lavars  August 22, 2022

Of the many different designs being explored by scientists in pursuit of better batteries, lithium-metal is an architecture that holds great potential. One problem holding the technology back, however, is the formation of tentacle-like growths called dendrites that quickly cause battery failure. Scientists at Rice University have put forward a promising solution to this problem in the form of fine powder that can be brushed onto electrode surfaces to ensure their survival.

A lithium-metal battery would see the graphite used as the anode, one of a lithium battery's two electrodes, replaced with pure lithium metal. This material offers a very high energy density and could enable batteries to charge much faster and offer as much as 10 times more capacity, but getting them to work reliably over long timeframes has proven difficult so far.

As the battery is cycled, dendrites begin to form on the anode and can cause the battery to short-circuit, fail or catch fire. We've seen many interesting potential solutions to this dendrite problem, and Rice University scientists have been responsible for more than few, with nanotube filmsadhesive tapes and laser treatments just some of the recent examples.

In their latest work, the battery scientists led by chemist James Tour have sought to solve this problem with a novel brushing treatment. The technique begins with the brushing of the anode to create a textured surface, and then brushing a powder made of phosphorus and sulfur into it. This causes the powder to react with the lithium metal anode to form a fine, protective film that alters its surface energy.

---- The film has the effect of tuning the anode surface to promote more uniform behavior during cycling, which promotes the longevity of the battery. It was put through its paces in test cells across 340 charging cycles and saw them retain 70 percent more capacity than off-the-shelf batteries. The film also performed well with regard to another key metric of battery degradation, retaining ultra-low polarization for more than 4,000 hours, around eight times longer than anodes without the film.

“This would simplify the manufacture of high-capacity batteries while greatly improving them,” Tour said. “Sanding these powdered solids into a lithium metal anode dramatically reduces dendrite formation that can short circuit a battery, as well as the accelerated consumption of the materials.”

The research was published in the journal Advanced Materials

Powder brushed onto electrodes brings high-capacity batteries closer (newatlas.com)

“A third group of inflationists do not deny that inflation involves serious disadvantages. Nevertheless, they think that there are higher and more important aims of economic policy than a sound monetary system. They hold that although inflation may be a great evil, yet it is not the greatest evil, and that the State might under certain circumstances find itself in a position where it would do well to oppose greater evils with the lesser evil of inflation.”

Ludwig von Mises, The Theory of Money and Credit.

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