Baltic Dry Index. 1213 -58 Brent Crude 101.76
Spot Gold 1758 US 2 Year Yield 3.36 +0.07
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 25/08/22 World 603,568,534
Deaths 6,480,502
“Fiat-money! Let the State 'create' money, and make the poor rich, and free them from the bonds of the capitalists! How foolish to forego the opportunity of making everybody rich, and consequently happy, that the State's right to create money gives it! How wrong to forego it simply because this would run counter to the interests of the rich! How wicked of the economists to assert that it is not within the power of the State to create wealth by means of the printing press!
Ludwig von Mises
It is day one of the Fed’s annual 5 star, posh Jackson Hole Wyoming juncket. Well, why not, they deserve it after all. Who else could have got inflation so right.
Fed Chairman Powell’s big day comes tomorrow when he gets to tell the rest of us just how he intends to tame inflation, avoid a recession, prevent a real estate bust and save the US mid-term elections for the far left wing Democrats.
In the casinos today and tomorrow, largely meaningless noise. Look away from that rising oil price and Treasury yield, now.
Asia markets rise
ahead of Jackson Hole; Hong Kong cancels morning session on typhoon warning
UPDATED THU, AUG 25 2022 12:07 AM EDT
Markets in the Asia-Pacific traded mostly higher
ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium kicking off in the U.S. Hong Kong’s morning
session was canceled due to the issuance of a typhoon warning.
In mainland China,
the Shanghai Composite was up 0.09% while the Shenzhen Component was
down 0.55%.
Japan’s Nikkei
225 was 0.56% higher while the Topix was up 0.38%. Australia’s S&P/ASX was
also up by 0.8%.
In South Korea, the Kospi rose
0.79% and the Kosdaq was up 1.47% as the Bank of Korea raised its benchmark
interest rate by 25 basis points.
Stocks in the U.S.
rose overnight, snapping a three-day slide in the Dow and the S&P 500, as
investors awaited more clarity on the Federal Reserve’s fight against
inflation.
In currencies, the
U.S. dollar rose as high as 109.11 overnight before falling back to around
108.6.
“Expectations of a
hawkish message from FOMC Chair Powell at Jackson Hole will likely keep upward
pressure on the USD in the run‑up to his speech on Friday,” Commonwealth Bank
of Australia’s Senior Economist and Currency Strategist Kristina Clifton said
in a report.
Hong Kong is slated
to report July’s trade data later in the afternoon.
China to expand
economy-stabilizing package for recovery and growth: Xinhua
China plans to
implement more measures as part of its policy package to stabilize its economy, Xinhua reported, citing a meeting chaired by
Premier Li Keqiang.
That’s part of
stimulus efforts for recovery and growth, and taskforces will be deployed
regionally to implement the policies more rapidly, the report said.
Separately, the
country’s human resources and social security ministry announced it will focus
on expanding jobs and promoting policies that support stabilizing the job
market, according
to a Reuters report.
Vice Minister Li
Zhong said at a press conference that the nation’s employment situation has
generally stayed stable for a long time, but noted that there’s been persistent
long-term pressure.
Asia markets: Jackson Hole, HKEX cancels morning session on typhoon warning (cnbc.com)
In yet more inflation news, there’s more free
money for nearly everyone. Why didn’t we think of free money for all before?
Biden
forgives millions of student loans; critics fear inflation
August
25, 20221:12 AM GMT+1
WASHINGTON, Aug 24
(Reuters) - President Joe Biden said on Wednesday the U.S. government will
forgive $10,000 in student loans for millions of debt-saddled former college
students, keeping a pledge he made in the 2020 campaign for the White House.
The move could
boost support for his fellow Democrats in the November congressional elections,
but some economists said it may fuel inflation and some Republicans in the U.S.
Congress questioned whether the president had the legal authority to cancel the
debt.
Debt forgiveness
will free up hundreds of billions of dollars for new consumer spending that
could be aimed at homebuying and other big-ticket expenses, according to
economists who said this would add a new wrinkle to the country's inflation
fight.
The actions are
"for families that need them the most - working and middle class people
hit especially hard during the pandemic," Biden said during remarks at the
White House. He pledged no high-income households would benefit, addressing a
central criticism of the plan.
"I will never
apologize for helping working Americans and middle class, especially not to the
same folks who voted for a $2 trillion tax cut that mainly benefited the
wealthiest Americans and the biggest corporations," Biden said, referring
to a Republican tax cut passed under former President Donald Trump.
Borrower balances
have been frozen since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak, with no payments
required on most federal student loans since March 2020. Many Democrats had
pushed for Biden to forgive as much as $50,000 per borrower.
Republicans mostly
opposed student loan forgiveness, calling it unfair because it will
disproportionately help people earning higher incomes.
"President
Biden's student loan socialism is a slap in the face to every family who
sacrificed to save for college, every graduate who paid their debt, and every
American who chose a certain career path or volunteered to serve in our Armed
Forces in order to avoid taking on debt," Senate Minority Leader Mitch
McConnell said Wednesday.
More
Biden forgives millions of student loans; critics fear inflation | Reuters
Finally, yet more bad news on the growing food
price inflation front. If China becomes a large scale buyer of rice and wheat
on the international markets, just how high will grain prices rise?
China warns
of 'severe' threat to harvest from worst heatwave on record
Issued
on: 24/08/2022 - 07:46
Beijing (AFP) – China's autumn harvest is under "severe threat"
from high temperatures and drought, authorities have warned, urging action to
protect crops in the face of the country's hottest summer on record.
The world's second-largest economy has
been hit by record temperatures, flash floods and droughts this summer --
phenomena that scientists have warned are becoming more frequent and intense
due to climate change.
Southern China has recorded its longest
sustained period of high temperatures and sparse rain since records began more
than 60 years ago, the agriculture ministry said.
Four government departments issued a
notice on Tuesday urging the conservation of "every unit of water" to
protect crops.
"The rapid development of drought
superimposed with high temperatures and heat damage has caused a severe threat
to autumn crop production," the statement said.
China produces more than 95 percent of
the rice, wheat and maize it consumes, but a reduced harvest could mean
increased demand for imports in the world's most populous nation -- putting
further pressure on global supply already strained by the conflict in Ukraine.
Temperatures as high as 45 degrees
Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit) have led multiple Chinese provinces to impose
power cuts, as cities struggle to cope with a surge in demand for electricity
that is partly driven by people cranking up the air conditioning to cope with
the heat.
The megacities of Shanghai and
Chongqing have cut outdoor decorative lighting, while authorities in Sichuan
province have imposed industrial power cuts after water levels dropped at key
hydroelectric plants.
More than 1,500 people were moved out
of the area surrounding Chongqing on Monday after hot and dry conditions
sparked multiple wildfires, according to state news agency Xinhua.
More
China warns of 'severe' threat to harvest from worst heatwave on record (france24.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
In
the Great Magic Money Tree Real Estate Bubble, a wobble. But on free fiat money
for all, real estate prices only g up, right?
U.S. house values
fell for the first time since 2012, Zillow says. Sellers and buyers are facing
a very different housing market to 2020.
Last Updated: Aug. 23, 2022 at 4:27 p.m. ET First Published:
Aug. 22, 2022 at 3:31 p.m. ET
The housing market
isn’t crashing, but it’s definitely feeling the burn.
After
two frenzied years, home buying is cooling off as mortgage rates rise. Some
experts in the field are calling it a “housing recession.”
U.S.
home values fell in July by 0.1%, compared to the month before, a new Zillow report said.
While deceleration in
home-price growth is typical for this time of the year, Zillow noted, the small
decline is the first monthly dip since 2012.
The typical U.S. home
value fell by $366 in July, and is now $357,107, as measured by the Zillow Home
Value Index.
Given the dip in July, Zillow revised
its forecast for the growth in home values to 2.4% through the end of
July 2023. The current rate of growth is 16%.
But this hardly
counts as a crash in prices, because the typical home value is also up 44.5%
from July 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic.
At this point,
sellers are finding themselves with fewer offers, and are having to offer more
concessions themselves to entice buyers.
Buyers in turn are
gaining more options, seeing inventory gradually rise, as the pendulum slowly
swings into their direction.
The dip in July is a “badly needed rebalancing that gives home buyers more options, more time to shop and more negotiating power,” Skylar Olsen, chief economist at Zillow Z, +2.42%, said in a statement.
Homes have become
unaffordable for many, given the high prices and mortgage rates. “As prices
soften, many will renew their interest, and we will continue our progress back
to ‘normal’,” Olsen added.
Home value declines
were largest in San Jose, Calif., San Francisco, Calif., Phoenix, Ariz., and
Austin, Texas. In these markets, the time listings spend on the market is
rising fast.
“Our prices have come off of their irrational highs of the last
18 months. It’s kind of a rebalancing,” Dave Walsh, vice president and manager
of Compass Realty San Jose, told MarketWatch.
More
72% of recent
homebuyers have regrets about their purchases. As the market cools, these steps
can help you avoid disappointment
PUBLISHED TUE, AUG 23 2022 2:59
PM EDT UPDATED TUE, AUG 23 2022 6:23 PM EDT
As the U.S. housing market cools, feverish competition for homes in the past couple of
years has left 72% having regrets about their home purchases, according to a
recent survey from Clever Real Estate.
The number-one reason for the buyer’s remorse: 30%
of respondents said they spent too much money.
The second most common regret was rushing the
home-buying process, with 30% saying their purchase decision was rushed and 26%
indicating they bought too quickly.
The online survey was conducted in July and
included about 1,000 individuals who bought a home in 2021 or 2022. It was
commissioned by Anytime Estimate, which is owned by Clever Real Estate.
Offer compromises
contributed to regrets
The hot seller’s market in recent years prompted
buyers to go above and beyond to seal the deals on their prospective homes —
which contributed to regrets.
To that point, 31% of buyers said they paid over
the asking price. The median amount paid over the listing price was $65,000.
Notably, tight competition led 36% to make an
offer on a home without seeing it in person first.
Even so, the competition was fierce, with 80%
of buyers saying they made more than one offer, with 41% making five offers or
more. About one in three buyers said they searched for three months for their
homes, while one in eight took six months or more.
More
Why recent homebuyers have regrets about their
purchases (cnbc.com)
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
A
Specialist In Viral Infections Explains Why We Need Updated Covid-19 Vaccines
Aug 24, 2022,05:28pm EDT
Dr. Matt Binnicker, an expert in clinical virology and the diagnosis of infectious diseases, discusses how mutations allows the Covid-19 virus to slip past our immune system and why updated variant-specific vaccines are needed, similar to the flu.
Despite the
availability of Covid-19 vaccines, the virus continues to cause a surge in
infections in many parts of the world. While vaccines have demonstrated
continued efficacy in reducing the incidence of severe disease and death, the
emergence of new variants, such as delta and omicron, has resulted in decreased
protection against infection and mild-to-moderate illness. Many who avoided
infection during the first two years of the pandemic through masking, social
distancing, and subsequent vaccination, have been infected over the past 8
months as highly transmissible strains of the virus have spread like wildfire.
This has raised important questions regarding why reduced protection occurs
over time and has led the FDA to recommend
that vaccine manufacturers reformulate vaccines to include
recent variants, which are expected to be available this fall.
Why are vaccinated individuals contracting Covid-19?
As Covid-19 vaccines became
available in late 2020 and early 2021, there was a high level of optimism that
the pandemic would soon end. In fact, many states with a high vaccination rate
experienced an initial decline in the incidence of infection. However, as 2021
continued, new variants began to emerge that showed properties of increased
transmissibility and immune evasion, meaning that prior immunity wasn’t
necessarily protective against a new or repeat infection.
More
A
Specialist In Viral Infections Explains Why We Need Updated Covid-19 Vaccines
(forbes.com)
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine
Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19
vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Powder
brushed onto electrodes brings high-capacity batteries closer
Nick Lavars August 22, 2022
Of the many
different designs being explored by scientists in pursuit of better batteries,
lithium-metal is an architecture that holds great potential. One problem
holding the technology back, however, is the formation of tentacle-like growths
called dendrites that quickly cause battery failure. Scientists at Rice
University have put forward a promising solution to this problem in the form of
fine powder that can be brushed onto electrode surfaces to ensure their
survival.
A
lithium-metal battery would see the graphite used as the anode, one of a
lithium battery's two electrodes, replaced with pure lithium metal. This
material offers a very high energy density and could enable batteries to charge
much faster and offer as much as 10 times more capacity, but getting them to
work reliably over long timeframes has proven difficult so far.
As the
battery is cycled, dendrites begin to form on the anode and can cause the
battery to short-circuit, fail or catch fire. We've seen many interesting
potential solutions to this dendrite problem, and Rice University scientists
have been responsible for more than few, with nanotube
films, adhesive
tapes and laser treatments just
some of the recent examples.
In their
latest work, the battery scientists led by chemist James Tour have sought to
solve this problem with a novel brushing treatment. The technique begins with
the brushing of the anode to create a textured surface, and then brushing a
powder made of phosphorus and sulfur into it. This causes the powder to react
with the lithium metal anode to form a fine, protective film that alters its surface
energy.
---- The film has the effect of tuning the anode surface to
promote more uniform behavior during cycling, which promotes the longevity of
the battery. It was put through its paces in test cells across 340 charging
cycles and saw them retain 70 percent more capacity than off-the-shelf
batteries. The film also performed well with regard to another key metric of
battery degradation, retaining ultra-low polarization for more than 4,000
hours, around eight times longer than anodes without the film.
“This would simplify the
manufacture of high-capacity batteries while greatly improving them,” Tour
said. “Sanding these powdered solids into a lithium metal anode dramatically
reduces dendrite formation that can short circuit a battery, as well as the accelerated
consumption of the materials.”
The research was published in
the journal Advanced Materials.
Powder brushed
onto electrodes brings high-capacity batteries closer (newatlas.com)
Ludwig
von Mises, The Theory of Money and Credit.
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