Monday, 1 August 2022

China v USA Russian Roulette.

Baltic Dry Index. 1895 -50  Brent Crude 102.93

Spot Gold 1762         US 2 Year Yield 2.89 +0.04

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 01/08/22 World 582,373,933

Deaths 6,419,951

“To build may have to be the slow and laborious task of years. To destroy can be the thoughtless act of a single day.”

Winston Churchill.

The month end over, US stock futures are under pressure this morning. In Asia, a mixed market as factory growth slows.

This week sees the Bank of England raising its key interest rate although the BOE is hopelessly way behind the inflation curve just like the Powell Fed.

In the USA, the week’s key numbers are the Friday employment report.

But all of the above will likely be over shadowed by whether the US Speaker of the House of Representatives does or does not visit Taiwan this week as part of her tour of Asia.

Either way the USA loses. If she does go ahead and visits Taiwan infuriating China, China has threatened bad consequences. Yet if she kowtows to China or is blocked from visiting by President Biden, the climb down to China will be noted by all in the region.

Stop one is Singapore later today, I think.

 

Mainland China markets rise after private survey shows Chinese factory activity grew slightly

SINGAPORE — Mainland China stocks rose along with most other Asia-Pacific indexes on Monday as a private survey on Chinese factory activity showed slight growth.

China’s Caixin/Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for July stood at 50.4, compared with the 51.5 predicted in a Reuters poll. In June, the reading was 51.7.

Still, the reading was better than China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index data released over the weekend, which showed a contraction in factory activity.

Mainland China markets gained. The  was 0.16% higher and the  advanced 1.109%.

PMI readings are sequential and represent month-on-month expansion or contraction. The 50 mark separates growth from decline.

“The contraction in China’s official manufacturing PMI to 49.0 in July from 50.2 in June underscores the extent of the uncertainty around growth stemming from a rise in Covid cases, slowing global demand and property market risks,” Venkateswaran Lavanya, an economist at Mizuho Bank, wrote in a Monday note.

“The poor start to Q3 further amplifies the risk that China will miss its 2022 GDP growth target of ‘around 5.5%.’ This against a backdrop of the authorities signaling last week that no big stimulus would be forthcoming even as the country sticks to its ‘dynamic zero-Covid’ policy,” Lavanya wrote.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index pared some losses but still shed 0.32% as shares of tech giant Alibaba lost 2.2%. The stock fell more than 5% earlier in the session.

On Friday in the U.S., Alibaba was added to a list of companies at risk of delisting under the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. U.S.-listed shares plunged 11% in the regular trading session.

----HSBC is set to announce its interim earnings Monday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.53% and the Topix index advanced 0.77%.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was 0.52% higher.

The Kospi in South Korea was about flat and the Kosdaq gained 0.48%.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside of Japan lost 0.11%.

More

Asia markets: Mainland China markets rise; Caixin PMI above 50 (cnbc.com)

Stock futures fall to start August trading with market coming off best month since 2020

AUG 1 2022 12:32 AM EDT

Stock futures fell following the market’s best month since 2020 as investors look ahead to another week of key earnings reports and economic data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 151 points, or 0.46%. S&P 500 futures shed around 0.48% and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped by 0.43%.

On Friday, all major indexes gained, posting winning weeks and capping off the best month of the year so far and then some. The Dow gained 6.7% in July, while the S&P 500 added 9.1%. The Nasdaq Composite rose 12.4% as investors rushed into the tech stocks beaten up the most during this bear market. For each index, July’s performances were the best since 2020.

“We are seeing a relief rally in the stock market, as pessimism reached extreme levels, and as longer-term interest rates have been coming back down,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance.

“We believe the rally will last until later in the summer, but as stock prices rebound and it becomes increasingly clear that we are headed for a more typical recession (e.g. one with higher unemployment and nominal GDP dropping close to zero or negative), markets will again have another selloff,” he added. “But until that time, enjoy the rally as it’s likely catching a lot of people off guard.”

---- In addition, the Friday nonfarm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will give more insight into the strong labor market. So far this year, the solid growth of jobs has prompted economists to say the U.S. is currently not in a recession, even with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.

More

Stock futures fall to start August trading with market coming off best month since 2020 (cnbc.com)

Alibaba shares extend losses on US delisting fear

Mon, 1 August 2022 at 5:21 am

Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba led technology stocks lower in Hong Kong on Monday after US authorities put it on a watchlist that could see it delisted in New York if it does not comply with disclosure orders.

The market heavyweight sank more than five percent in early trade, pushing it to its lowest level since May and dragging the Hang Seng Tech Index with it.

The US securities watchdog on Friday said it added the Chinese firm to a list of more than 250 others that could be booted from Wall Street -- where it listed in 2014 -- if strict auditing requirements were not met for three consecutive years.

The announcement comes as tensions between Washington and Beijing are dragged lower by a range of issues including technology, human rights and Taiwan.

It also follows a report last week that founder Jack Ma plans to give up control of Ant Group as part of a strategy to appease Chinese regulators and revive the digital payments unit's initial public offering.

The firm has come under intense pressure from a crackdown on the tech sector by Chinese authorities for more than a year, sending its share price plunging about 70 percent from its record high in late 2020.

It was hit with a record $2.75 billion fine in April 2021 for anti-competitive practices.

More

Alibaba shares extend losses on US delisting fear (yahoo.com)

 

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.  

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Bank of England forecast to raise interest rates to 1.75% to fight inflation

Patrick O'Donnell 31 July, 2022

The financial institution's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is due to meet next week to come to a decision over whether the base rate will be hiked once again. Set by the Bank of England, the base rate is the interest rate that is charged on commercial banks for loans. Currently, the UK's base rate is at 1.25 percent and financial analysts "expect" it will be raised by 50 basis points or 0.5 percent.

Earlier this summer, the Bank of England raised the rate for the fifth consecutive time in a row to a 13-year high.

This comes as inflation in the UK hits a 40-year high of 9.4 percent, exacerbating the continuing cost of living crisis.

Financial experts estimate that the inflation rate could reach as high as 12 percent by the end of year which will put further pressure on policymakers to react.

While savers are likely to see benefits from another hiked base rate, mortgage holders will have to deal with their payments rising once again.

More

Bank of England forecast to raise interest rates to 1.75% to fight inflation (msn.com)

Inflation and wage data suggest US prices will keep climbing

July 29 2022

WASHINGTON (AP) — Inflation surged in June and workers’ average wages accelerated in the spring — signs that Americans won’t likely feel any relief from rising prices anytime soon and that the Federal Reserve will feel compelled to further raise borrowing costs.

An inflation gauge closely tracked by the Fed jumped 6.8% in June from a year ago, the government said Friday, the biggest such jump in four decades. Much of the increase was driven by energy and food.

On a month-to-month basis, too, prices surged 1% in June, the biggest such rise since 2005. Even excluding the volatile food and energy categories, prices climbed 0.6% from May to June.

Employees’ wages, excluding government workers, jumped 1.6% in the April-June quarter, matching a record high reached last fall. Higher wages tend to fuel inflation if companies pass their higher labor costs on to their customers, as they often do.

Friday’s figures underscored the persistence of the inflation that is eroding Americans’ purchasing power, dimming their confidence in the economy and threatening Democrats in Congress in the run-up to the November midterm elections.

Some signs indicate that certain categories of inflation may moderate in the coming months, though not by very much: Gas prices have fallen since mid-June from an average national peak of $5 to $4.26, according to AAA. Likewise, other commodity prices, for items such as wheat and copper, have plunged.

But more persistent drivers of inflation show little, if any, evidence of slowing. The wage data released Friday — a measure known as the employment cost index — indicated that paychecks were still growing at a robust pace. That’s good for workers, but it could raise concerns at the Fed about its effect on prices. Chair Jerome Powell specifically cited this measure during a news conference Wednesday as a source of concern for the the central bank’s policymakers.

“This is a (report) that’s going to keep Fed officials up at night,” said Omair Sharif, president of Inflation Insights.

The government also reported Friday that consumer spending managed to just outpace inflation last month, rising 0.1% from May to June. Spending actually jumped, but most of the gain was wiped out by higher prices.

More

Inflation and wage data suggest US prices will keep climbing | AP News

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.

ASIA ECONOMY

Macao to reopen city after no Covid-19 cases detected for 9 straight days

Macao will reopen public services and entertainment facilities, and allow dining-in at restaurants from Tuesday, authorities said, as the world’s biggest gambling hub seeks a return to normalcy after finding no Covid-19 cases for nine straight days.

Beauty salons, fitness centers, and bars too will be allowed to resume operations, the government said in a statement on Monday.

Health authorities will require residents to wear masks when they go out and must show a negative coronavirus test within three days to enter most venues.

“There have been no community infection cases in Macau for nine consecutive days ... and the risk of the spread of the coronavirus has been greatly reduced,” it said.

The former Portuguese colony has reported around 1,800 infections since mid-June when it was hit with its worst coronavirus outbreak that forced the closure of casinos and locked down most of the city.

Macao reopened its casinos on July 23, as authorities began unwinding stringent measures which required most businesses and premises to shut.

This is the first time Macao has had to grapple with the fast spreading omicron variant.

More than 90% of Macao’s residents are fully vaccinated against Covid-19 but authorities have closely followed China’s zero-Covid mandate which seeks to curb all outbreaks at almost any cost, contrary to the rest of the world which is already living with the virus.

More

Macao to reopen city after no Covid-19 cases detected for 9 straight days (cnbc.com)

Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Trackerhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine trackerhttps://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

A stand-alone solar farm in Crete that integrates graphene perovskite solar panels

JULY 29, 2022 

Perovskites, mineral materials composed of calcium titanate, have been found to be valuable for the fabrication of high-performance solar cells. While teams of scientists and engineers worldwide have been developing and testing perovskite solar cells in laboratory settings, large-scale outdoor evaluations of these cells are still lacking.

Researchers at University of Rome Tor Vergata, the Hellenic Mediterranean University in Crete, BeDimensional S.p.A., Great Cell, the Italian Institute of Technology (IIT) and University of Siena have recently manufactured large-area perovskite solar panels engineered using two-dimensional (2D) materials. They then successfully integrated 9 of these solar panels into a stand-alone solar farm, located on the Greek island of Crete. This team's findings, presented in a paper published in Nature Energy, could facilitate and inform the future large-scale implementation of perovskite solar cells.

"Our recent paper highlights our joint research efforts for the last 5 years in the upscaling of perovskite PVs, starting from lab cells to modules, panels and finally to a solar farm infrastructure," Francesco Bonaccorso, one of the researchers who carried out the study, told to Tech Xplore. "This project was specifically developed in the context of the European Graphene Flagship initiative, which established a close collaboration between University Tor Vergata, BeDimensional S.p.A., GreatCell and Hellenic Mediterranean University, having both complementary and widely different skillsets."

The recent collaborative work by these different universities and organizations was selected as the spearhead project of the Graphene Flagship initiative. This is an initiative the focuses on the industrialization and deployment of solar energy harvesting technologies.

The team first published results of their collaborative efforts in, Advanced Functional Materials in 2016. In this paper, the team opened a new research field in the context of perovskite photovoltaics, demonstrating that by properly engineering the interfaces with 2D materials it was possible to significantly increase the stability of perovskite solar cells.

More

A stand-alone solar farm in Crete that integrates graphene perovskite solar panels (techxplore.com)

“We contend that for a nation to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle."

Winston Churchill.

 

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