Baltic Dry Index. 1895 -50 Brent Crude 102.93
Spot Gold 1762 US 2 Year Yield 2.89 +0.04
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 01/08/22 World 582,373,933
Deaths 6,419,951
“To build may have to be the slow and laborious task of years. To destroy can be the thoughtless act of a single day.”
Winston Churchill.
The month end over, US stock futures are under pressure this morning. In Asia, a mixed market as factory growth slows.
This week sees the Bank of England raising its key interest rate although the BOE is hopelessly way behind the inflation curve just like the Powell Fed.
In the USA, the week’s key numbers are the Friday employment report.
But all of the above will likely be over shadowed by whether the US Speaker of the House of Representatives does or does not visit Taiwan this week as part of her tour of Asia.
Either way the USA loses. If she does go ahead and visits Taiwan infuriating China, China has threatened bad consequences. Yet if she kowtows to China or is blocked from visiting by President Biden, the climb down to China will be noted by all in the region.
Stop one is Singapore later today, I think.
Mainland China
markets rise after private survey shows Chinese factory activity grew slightly
SINGAPORE — Mainland
China stocks rose along with most other Asia-Pacific indexes on Monday as a
private survey on Chinese factory activity showed slight growth.
China’s Caixin/Markit
manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for July stood at 50.4, compared with
the 51.5 predicted in a Reuters poll. In June, the reading was 51.7.
Still, the reading
was better than China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index data released
over the weekend, which showed a contraction in factory activity.
Mainland China markets gained.
The was 0.16% higher and the advanced 1.109%.
PMI readings are
sequential and represent month-on-month expansion or contraction. The 50 mark
separates growth from decline.
“The contraction in
China’s official manufacturing PMI to 49.0 in July from 50.2 in June
underscores the extent of the uncertainty around growth stemming from a rise in
Covid cases, slowing global demand and property market risks,” Venkateswaran
Lavanya, an economist at Mizuho Bank, wrote in a Monday note.
“The poor start to Q3
further amplifies the risk that China will miss its 2022 GDP growth target of
‘around 5.5%.’ This against a backdrop of the authorities signaling last week
that no big stimulus would be forthcoming even as the country sticks to its
‘dynamic zero-Covid’ policy,” Lavanya wrote.
Hong Kong’s Hang
Seng index pared some losses but still shed 0.32% as shares of tech
giant Alibaba lost 2.2%. The stock fell more than 5% earlier in the
session.
On Friday in the
U.S., Alibaba was added to a list of companies at risk of delisting under the
Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. U.S.-listed shares plunged 11% in
the regular trading session.
----HSBC is set to announce its interim
earnings Monday.
Japan’s Nikkei
225 gained 0.53% and the Topix index advanced 0.77%.
In Australia,
the S&P/ASX 200 was 0.52% higher.
The Kospi in
South Korea was about flat and the Kosdaq gained 0.48%.
MSCI’s broadest index
of Asia-Pacific shares outside of Japan lost 0.11%.
More
Asia
markets: Mainland China markets rise; Caixin PMI above 50 (cnbc.com)
Stock futures
fall to start August trading with market coming off best month since 2020
AUG 1 2022 12:32 AM EDT
Stock
futures fell following the market’s best month since 2020 as investors look
ahead to another week of key earnings reports and economic data.
The Dow Jones
Industrial Average futures fell by 151 points, or 0.46%. S&P 500 futures
shed around 0.48% and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped by 0.43%.
On
Friday, all major indexes gained, posting winning weeks and capping
off the best month of the year so far and then some. The Dow gained 6.7% in
July, while the S&P 500 added 9.1%. The Nasdaq Composite rose 12.4% as
investors rushed into the tech stocks beaten up the most during this bear market.
For each index, July’s
performances were the best since 2020.
“We are seeing a
relief rally in the stock market, as pessimism reached extreme levels, and as
longer-term interest rates have been coming back down,” said Chris Zaccarelli,
chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance.
“We believe the
rally will last until later in the summer, but as stock prices rebound and it
becomes increasingly clear that we are headed for a more typical recession
(e.g. one with higher unemployment and nominal GDP dropping close to zero or
negative), markets will again have another selloff,” he added. “But until that
time, enjoy the rally as it’s likely catching a lot of people off guard.”
---- In addition, the Friday nonfarm payrolls
report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will give more insight into the
strong labor market. So far this year, the solid growth of jobs has prompted
economists to say the U.S. is currently not in a recession, even with two consecutive quarters of negative
GDP.
More
Stock
futures fall to start August trading with market coming off best month since
2020 (cnbc.com)
Alibaba shares extend losses on US delisting fear
Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba led
technology stocks lower in Hong Kong on Monday after US authorities put it on a
watchlist that could see it delisted in New York if it does not comply with
disclosure orders.
The market heavyweight sank more than
five percent in early trade, pushing it to its lowest level since May and
dragging the Hang Seng Tech Index with it.
The US securities watchdog on Friday
said it added the Chinese firm to a list of more than 250 others that could be
booted from Wall Street -- where it listed in 2014 -- if strict auditing
requirements were not met for three consecutive years.
The announcement comes as tensions
between Washington and Beijing are dragged lower by a range of issues including
technology, human rights and Taiwan.
It also follows a report last week
that founder Jack Ma plans to give up control of Ant Group as part of a
strategy to appease Chinese regulators and revive the digital payments unit's
initial public offering.
The firm has come under intense
pressure from a crackdown on the tech sector by Chinese authorities for more
than a year, sending its share price plunging about 70 percent from its record
high in late 2020.
It was hit with a record $2.75
billion fine in April 2021 for anti-competitive practices.
More
Alibaba
shares extend losses on US delisting fear (yahoo.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
Bank of England forecast
to raise interest rates to 1.75% to fight inflation
Patrick O'Donnell 31 July, 2022
The financial institution's Monetary Policy
Committee (MPC) is due to meet next week to come to a decision over whether the
base rate will be hiked once again. Set by the Bank of England, the base rate
is the interest rate that is charged on commercial banks for loans. Currently,
the UK's base rate is at 1.25 percent and financial analysts "expect"
it will be raised by 50 basis points or 0.5 percent.
Earlier this summer, the Bank
of England raised the rate for the fifth consecutive time in a row to a 13-year
high.
This comes as inflation in
the UK hits a 40-year high of 9.4 percent, exacerbating the continuing cost of
living crisis.
Financial experts estimate
that the inflation rate could reach as high as 12 percent by the end of year
which will put further pressure on policymakers to react.
While savers are likely to
see benefits from another hiked base rate, mortgage holders will have to deal
with their payments rising once again.
More
Bank of England
forecast to raise interest rates to 1.75% to fight inflation (msn.com)
Inflation and wage data
suggest US prices will keep climbing
WASHINGTON (AP) — Inflation surged in June and
workers’ average wages accelerated in the spring — signs that Americans
won’t likely feel any relief from rising prices
anytime soon and that the Federal Reserve will feel compelled to further raise
borrowing costs.
An inflation gauge closely tracked by the Fed
jumped 6.8% in June from a year ago, the government said Friday, the biggest
such jump in four decades. Much of the increase was driven by energy and food.
On a month-to-month basis, too, prices surged
1% in June, the biggest such rise since 2005. Even excluding the volatile food
and energy categories, prices climbed 0.6% from May to June.
Employees’ wages, excluding government workers,
jumped 1.6% in the April-June quarter, matching a record high reached last
fall. Higher wages tend to fuel inflation if companies pass their higher labor
costs on to their customers, as they often do.
Friday’s figures underscored the persistence of
the inflation that is eroding Americans’ purchasing power, dimming their confidence in the economy and
threatening Democrats in Congress in the run-up to the November midterm
elections.
Some signs indicate that certain categories of
inflation may moderate in the coming months, though not by very much: Gas
prices have fallen since mid-June from an average national peak of $5 to $4.26,
according to AAA. Likewise, other commodity prices, for items such as wheat and
copper, have plunged.
But more persistent drivers of inflation show
little, if any, evidence of slowing. The wage data released Friday — a measure
known as the employment cost index — indicated that paychecks were still
growing at a robust pace. That’s good for workers, but it could raise concerns
at the Fed about its effect on prices. Chair Jerome Powell specifically cited
this measure during a news conference Wednesday as a source of concern for the
the central bank’s policymakers.
“This is a (report) that’s going to keep Fed
officials up at night,” said Omair Sharif, president of Inflation Insights.
The government also reported Friday that
consumer spending managed to just outpace inflation last month, rising 0.1%
from May to June. Spending actually jumped, but most of the gain was wiped out
by higher prices.
More
Inflation and wage
data suggest US prices will keep climbing | AP News
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The
Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Macao to reopen city after no Covid-19 cases detected for 9
straight days
Macao will reopen
public services and entertainment facilities, and allow dining-in at
restaurants from Tuesday, authorities said, as the world’s biggest gambling hub
seeks a return to normalcy after finding no Covid-19 cases for nine straight
days.
Beauty salons,
fitness centers, and bars too will be allowed to resume operations, the
government said in a statement on Monday.
Health authorities
will require residents to wear masks when they go out and must show a negative
coronavirus test within three days to enter most venues.
“There have been no
community infection cases in Macau for nine consecutive days ... and the risk
of the spread of the coronavirus has been greatly reduced,” it said.
The former Portuguese
colony has reported around 1,800 infections since mid-June when it was hit with
its worst coronavirus outbreak that forced the closure of casinos and locked
down most of the city.
Macao reopened its
casinos on July 23, as authorities began unwinding stringent measures which
required most businesses and premises to shut.
This is the first
time Macao has had to grapple with the fast spreading omicron variant.
More than 90% of
Macao’s residents are fully vaccinated against Covid-19 but authorities have
closely followed China’s zero-Covid mandate which seeks to curb all outbreaks
at almost any cost, contrary to the rest of the world which is already living
with the virus.
More
Macao
to reopen city after no Covid-19 cases detected for 9 straight days (cnbc.com)
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine
Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19
vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
A stand-alone solar farm in Crete that integrates graphene
perovskite solar panels
JULY 29, 2022
Perovskites, mineral materials composed of
calcium titanate, have been found to be valuable for the fabrication of
high-performance solar cells. While teams of scientists and engineers worldwide
have been developing and testing perovskite solar cells in laboratory settings,
large-scale outdoor evaluations of these cells are still lacking.
Researchers at University of Rome Tor Vergata,
the Hellenic Mediterranean University in Crete, BeDimensional S.p.A., Great
Cell, the Italian Institute of Technology (IIT) and University of Siena have
recently manufactured large-area perovskite solar panels engineered using two-dimensional (2D)
materials. They then successfully integrated 9 of these solar panels into a
stand-alone solar farm, located
on the Greek island of Crete. This team's findings, presented in a paper
published in Nature Energy, could facilitate and inform the future
large-scale implementation of perovskite solar cells.
"Our recent
paper highlights our joint research efforts for the last 5 years in the
upscaling of perovskite PVs, starting from lab cells to modules, panels and
finally to a solar farm infrastructure," Francesco Bonaccorso, one of the
researchers who carried out the study, told to Tech Xplore. "This project
was specifically developed in the context of the European Graphene Flagship
initiative, which established a close collaboration between University Tor
Vergata, BeDimensional S.p.A., GreatCell and Hellenic Mediterranean University,
having both complementary and widely different skillsets."
The recent
collaborative work by these different universities and organizations was
selected as the spearhead project of the Graphene Flagship initiative. This is
an initiative the focuses on the industrialization and deployment of solar
energy harvesting technologies.
The team first
published results of their collaborative efforts in, Advanced
Functional Materials in 2016. In this paper, the team opened a new
research field in the context of perovskite photovoltaics, demonstrating that
by properly engineering the interfaces with 2D materials it was possible to
significantly increase the stability of perovskite solar cells.
More
A stand-alone
solar farm in Crete that integrates graphene perovskite solar panels
(techxplore.com)
“We contend that
for a nation to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket
and trying to lift himself up by the handle."
Winston
Churchill.
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