Baltic Dry Index. 1404 -73 Brent Crude 94.30
Spot Gold 1781 US 2 Year Yield 3.20 -0.05
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 16/08/22 World 596,176,955
Deaths 6,456,051
August 16, 1896 Gold first discovered in Klondike, found at Bonanza
Creek in the Yukon, Canada by George Carmack.
In the Asian stock casinos this morning,
a mixed day so far.
Morgan Stanley thinks Asia’s inflation
has peaked.
That LME Nickel racket might be heading
to a English court. If it does, Christmas comes early for the English tort bar.
I think it’s a little early to start
calling for the top in inflation. A lot
will depend on just how Europe’s drought will affect food prices. A lot will
depend on energy prices in the coming northern hemisphere winter.
A colder than normal winter in North
America and/or Europe and despite a global economy heading towards recession, we
might yet get another surge in inflation.
But for today, at least, we are getting a
little relief from a falling price of Brent crude and shipping rates.
Asia-Pacific
markets were mixed after a positive rally from Wall Street, BHP shares soar
UPDATED MON, AUG 15 2022 11:31 PM
EDT
Asia-Pacific shares
were mixed ahead of economic data from Japan and India.
Mainland China
markets thrived. The Shanghai Composite gained 0.37% and the Shenzhen Component
was up 0.491%.
Hong Kong’s Hang
Seng index was also up 0.07%.
Japan’s Nikkei
225 however fell 0.13% while the Topix index dipped 0.19%. The Kospi
traded better, rising 0.3%.
The S&P/ASX
200 in Australia rose 0.53%.
The most recent
reading from the ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence survey showed
Australian consumer confidence rebounded last week, reversing from a drop
following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate hike earlier this month.
Hawkish statements
from that meeting released Tuesday suggest there is a likelihood of more
tightening to come, analysts say.
Japanese stocks
were awashed in a sea of red. Nissan, Honda and Toyota lost
roughly 1% each.
Producers of
lithium, fertilisers and other metals shut plants or curbed output in China’s
southwestern Sichuan province on Monday after it rationed industrial
electricity consumption amid its worst heatwave in 60 years.
More
Asia
markets: South Korea, India, Japan economic data (cnbc.com)
Asia’s inflation
has peaked compared with major economies in other regions, Morgan Stanley says
Inflation in Asia has
peaked compared with other major economies such as the U.S. and
Europe, according to the chief Asia economist at Morgan Stanley.
“Absolutely,
inflation has peaked if you look at the data that’s already indicative of that.
More importantly, going forward, we think you should see downside risks to
inflation,” Chetan Ahya, from the investment bank, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box
Asia” on Monday.
“Asia’s average
inflation peaked at 5.5% and it’s already down by about half a percent from
that peak levels — and that compared with the U.S., which peaked at 9%, and in
Europe, which is also around 8.5% and 9%,” he added.
Ahya said there are few signs of demand
overheating in Asia, especially since economic growth is still below pre-Covid
levels for most countries.
“The way I would describe the state
of recovery in Asia is … most of the economies are in mid-cycle stage. I think
that’s the most important reason why we think inflation will come in control
and central banks will not have to take policy rates into deeply restrictive
territory.”
Last week, Bank of Thailand
Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput said there’s no need for the central bank
to “undertake
heroically large rate hikes” as the country’s economy is only
expected to return to pre-pandemic levels at the end of the year.
The Morgan Stanley
economist also said goods demand was a key driver in inflation globally, but
particularly in Asia.
“Goods demand had
seen a massive rise because of pandemic in the U.S. and caused the
demand-supply imbalance. But that’s all healing now, demand is coming off,”
Ahya noted.
With supply chains
improving and inventories rising, the bank expects goods demand to shrink in
the months ahead. In addition, Asia’s labor markets — unlike in the U.S. — are
not tight, which has helped the region contain inflation pressures, he
added.
Weak exports growth
While Asia’s
inflation picture may seem comparatively in check, the Wall Street bank said
the exports outlook remains weak.
“What we need to
look at from an economic standpoint, in terms of growth implications —the real
numbers and the real volume numbers have already decelerated down to about 1%
to 3% on a year-on-year basis,” Ahya said.
“This used to be
growing at about 10% plus, just about 12 months back. We have seen a major
deceleration already, and we think the outlook on good exports for Asia is not
looking great.”
Inflation
in Asia has peaked, Morgan Stanley says (cnbc.com)
Finally, more fallout from that LME Nickel
fiasco. Did the LME bend the rules for China’s benefit? Their own?
The obscure Wall Street
giant at war with the London Metal Exchange
Mon,
15 August 2022 at 10:00 am
Jane Street might be one of the
most prestigious companies in global markets, but outside of the world of
finance it is barely known.
Operating at the cutting edge of
machine-driven trading strategies, the media-shy firm has become a cornerstone
of Wall Street known for its big bets on ‘black swan’ events. Unusually, the company
eschews job titles, and has cultivated its own niche computer code.
But in recent months, the
normally low-profile company has flung itself into the City spotlight by
launching a legal case against the London Metal Exchange (LME) over the nickel trading suspension in
March. A decision on whether the
case will be heard in court is expected within months.
Founded at the turn of the
century by “a small group of traders and technologists in a tiny New York
office”, Jane Street has risen to become a trading behemoth. It has an
unconventional structure, steered by an inner circle of senior executives
rather than having a chief executive or formal board.
At its heart is a hugely developed
proprietary trading operation, meaning it makes bets with its own funds rather
than those from investors.
It is best known for giving liquidity
to assets by offering a guaranteed buy and sell price, particularly within the
booming sphere of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) – pooled securities that track
assets such as stocks.
The company doesn’t court publicity.
However, in a rare occurrence, Jane Street hit the headlines in June after it
sued the LME for $15.3m (£12.5m) plus interest in damages to make up for
cancelled trades, claiming the decision to do so was a human rights violation.
The LME said its decision to
freeze the nickel contract and reverse a morning’s worth of trade, which
brought it to the brink of collapse, was “in the interests of the market as a
whole”.
Yet in documents filed at the
High Court, Jane Street said the cancellation was “inimical to the purpose of
the Exchange, as a neutral trading venue”.
A spokesman said: “The LME’s
arbitrary decision to cancel nickel trades during a period of heightened
volatility severely undermines the integrity of the markets and sets a
dangerous precedent that calls future contracts into question.”
Jane Street’s move followed
Elliott Management, an investment group known for its aggressive pursuit of
debts, which sued the 145-year-old
exchange for $456m under the
same claims.
The LME is contesting Jane Street’s
claims and, in a document resisting Elliott and Jane Street’s applications for
a judicial review, claimed the prop trader’s case rests on “a false premise”
and “ignores the LME’s legitimate concern for the orderliness and proper
functioning of the market as a whole”.
Its decision to suspend and reverse
trades – which is being investigated by the Bank of England and the FCA – was a
consequence of nickel prices surging to unprecedented levels above $100,000 a
tonne, as supply fears spurred by the invasion of Ukraine developed into a run
on investors betting the metal’s price would fall.
Several of the exchange’s core
participants faced crippling losses as their broker made margin calls on short
bets. The LME says the margin requirement would have totalled $19.7bn if it
hadn’t undone the trades.
More
The obscure Wall
Street giant at war with the London Metal Exchange (yahoo.com)
Solving the puzzle of global markets
Jane
Street is a research-driven trading firm where curious people work together on
deep problems
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
London house prices: asking prices fell £23,000 last
month as market returns to seasonal patterns after ‘frenzied’ two years
Ruth Bloomfield Mon, 15 August
2022 at 10:52 am
As interest rates rise
and the threat of imminent recession looming, average asking prices in London dropped
by some £23,000 in the last month — the first fall of the year.
According to new research from
Rightmove prices fell by 3.4 per cent in the past month, to an average of
£668,587. This is still 5.2 per cent higher than in August 2021 but represents
the biggest tumble of any UK region.
Prices in the south east fell 1.7
per cent last month, to an average of £483,842, which is eight per cent higher
than in August 2021.
Across the capital the biggest
price falls were mostly felt in leafy, affluent suburban boroughs, led by
Barnet (down 4.4 per cent to an average £716,000), Merton, down 3.6 per cent to
an average £731,000), and Richmond upon Thames (down 2.5 per cent to an average
£936,000).
Prices also slipped in
Westminster (down 2.6 per cent to an average £1.47m).
Islington saw the strongest
performance, with asking prices up 1.3 per cent, to an average £790,000.
Tim Bannister, Rightmove’s property director,
said today’s figures could partly be explained by the summer holidays — prices
tend to fall in August because so many potential buyers and sellers are away.
And agents report that some new
sellers are pricing competitively in an attempt to find a buyer and move home
before Christmas.
“A drop in asking prices is to be
expected this month, as the market returns towards normal seasonal patterns
after a frenzied two years, and many would-be home movers become distracted by
the summer holidays,” he said. “Sellers who want or need to move quickly at this
time of year tend to price competitively in order to find a suitable buyer
fast, with some hoping to complete their move in time to enjoy Christmas in a
new home.”
More
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Variant-adapted COVID vaccine wins first
approval in Britain
August 15, 2022 12:15 PM
GMT+1 Last Updated 2 min ago
LONDON, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Britain has
become the first country to approve a COVID-19 vaccine that targets both the
original and Omicron variant of the virus.
The UK medicines regulator (MHRA)
approved the so-called bivalent vaccine made by U.S. drug company Moderna (MRNA.O) as
a booster for adults.
The agency's decision was based on
clinical trial data that showed the booster triggered "a strong immune
response" against both Omicron (BA.1) and the original 2020 virus, it
said.
The MHRA also cited an exploratory
analysis in which the shot was found to generate a good immune response against
the currently dominant Omicron offshoots BA.4 and BA.5.
No serious safety concerns were identified
with this new formulation, the agency added.
Now approval has been secured,
Britain's Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) will advise on
how the vaccine should be deployed in the country.
While
existing COVID-19 vaccines continue to provide good protection against
hospitalisation and death, vaccine effectiveness has taken a hit as the virus
has evolved.
"The
first generation of COVID-19 vaccines being used in the UK continue to provide
important protection against the disease and save lives," MHRA Chief
Executive June Raine said in a statement.
"What
this bivalent vaccine gives us is a sharpened tool in our armoury to help
protect us against this disease as the virus continues to evolve."
More
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine
Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19
vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Today, garbage in, garbage out.
Sloppy Use of Machine Learning Is
Causing a ‘Reproducibility Crisis’ in Science
AI
hype has researchers in fields from medicine to sociology rushing to use
techniques that they don’t always understand—causing a wave of spurious
results.
AUG
10, 2022 7:00 AM
HISTORY
SHOWS CIVIL wars
to be among the messiest, most horrifying of human affairs. So Princeton
professor Arvind Narayanan and his PhD student Sayash Kapoor got suspicious
last year when they discovered a strand of political science research claiming
to predict when a civil war will break out with more than 90 percent accuracy,
thanks to artificial intelligence.
A series of papers described astonishing results from
using machine learning, the technique beloved by
tech giants that underpins modern AI. Applying it to data such as a country’s
gross domestic product and unemployment rate was said to beat more conventional
statistical methods at predicting the outbreak of civil war by almost 20
percentage points.
Yet when the Princeton researchers looked more closely,
many of the results turned out to be a mirage. Machine learning involves
feeding an algorithm data from the past that tunes it to operate on future,
unseen data. But in several papers, researchers failed to properly separate the
pools of data used to train and test their code’s performance, a mistake termed
“data leakage” that results in a system being tested with data it has seen
before, like a student taking a test after being provided the answers.
“They were claiming near-perfect accuracy, but we found
that in each of these cases, there was an error in the machine-learning
pipeline,” says Kapoor. When he and Narayanan fixed those errors, in every
instance they found that modern AI offered virtually no advantage.
That experience prompted the Princeton pair to investigate
whether misapplication of machine learning was distorting results in other
fields—and to conclude that incorrect use of the technique is a widespread
problem in modern science.
AI has been heralded as potentially
transformative for science because of its capacity to unearth
patterns that may be hard to discern using more conventional data analysis.
Researchers have used AI to make breakthroughs in predicting
protein structures, controlling fusion reactors, probing the cosmos.
More
Sloppy Use of Machine Learning Is Causing a ‘Reproducibility Crisis’ in Science | WIRED
“Fiat-money! Let the State 'create' money, and make the poor
rich, and free them from the bonds of the capitalists! How foolish to forego
the opportunity of making everybody rich, and consequently happy, that the
State's right to create money gives it! How wrong to forego it simply because
this would run counter to the interests of the rich! How wicked of the
economists to assert that it is not within the power of the State to create
wealth by means of the printing press!- You statesmen want to build railways,
and complain of the low state of the exchequer? Well, then, do not beg loans
from the capitalists and anxiously calculate whether your railways will bring
in enough to enable you to pay interest and amortization on your debt. Create
money, and help yourselves.”
Ludwig von Mises, The
Theory of Money and Credit.
No comments:
Post a Comment