Tuesday, 2 August 2022

China On The Brink.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1872 -23  Brent Crude 99.28

Spot Gold 1774          US 2 Year Yield 2.89 Fri.

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 02/08/22 World 583,185,107

Deaths 6,422,121

"War is the continuation of politics by other means."

Carl von Clausewitz.

The big news today is U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and if it happens, China’s reaction to it.

China has already threatened a military response.

With terrible timing, yesterday President Biden announced the success of a drone strike in central Kabul that killed Ayman al-Zawahiri, giving Beijing ideas and cover.

We await the day’s fraught outcome, but while the Pelosi visit might be good domestic politics in far away America, it’s rattling all of Asia’s stock casinos and at its worst might lead to a military skirmish between the USA and China.

Hollywood couldn’t make this up.

 

Hong Kong shares down nearly 3%, Asia markets drop as geopolitical tensions rise over Pelosi visit

SINGAPORE — Hong Kong and mainland China markets led losses in Asia on Tuesday as geopolitical tensions rose over U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.

The  fell 2.94%, with heavyweights like  and  falling 2.83% and 2.96% respectively. The Hang Seng Tech index slipped 4.18%.

Mainland China’s  lost 2.93% and the  shed 3.11%.

Local media reports citing unnamed sources said Pelosi would go ahead with her visit to Taiwan, a democratic self-ruled island that China sees as a runaway province.

Regarding Pelosi’s trip, Beijing warned that its army would “never sit idly by” and will “uphold China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said at a press conference on Monday.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s shares fell 2.58%, compared with a 1.86% loss in the wider  index.

Elsewhere in Asia, the Nikkei 225 in Japan slipped 1.59%, and the Topix index lost 1.81%.

In South Korea, the Kospi shed 0.9% and the Kosdaq declined around 1%.

Consumer prices in South Korea rose 6.3% in July compared with the same period in 2021, official data showed on Tuesday. That’s in line with expectations and the fastest acceleration in prices since November 1998, Reuters reported.

The Bank of Korea raised rates by 50 basis points in July.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was 0.36% lower.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hike by 50 basis points after official data showed prices in Australia rose 6.1% in the second quarter compared with a year ago.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside of Japan declined 1.55%.

More

Asia markets: China, Hong Kong stocks drop ahead of Pelosi visit (cnbc.com)

China warns its military will 'not sit idly by' if Pelosi visits Taiwan

BEIJING (Reuters) - China said on Monday that its military "not sit idly by" if U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan.

The latest warning was issued during a Chinese foreign ministry regular briefing. Spokesperson Zhao Lijian also said that because of Pelosi's status as the "No. 3 official of the U.S. government", a visit to Taiwan, which China claims as its own, would "lead to egregious political impact".

Pelosi was set to kick-off a tour of four Asian countries on Monday in Singapore amid intense speculation that she may risk the wrath of Beijing by also visiting self-ruled Taiwan.

China warns its military will 'not sit idly by' if Pelosi visits Taiwan (yahoo.com)

Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri killed in CIA drone strike

Ayman al-Zawahiri was the leader of al-Qaeda and one of the world’s most-wanted terrorists, who oversaw the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

Published: AUGUST 2, 2022 00:15

Updated: AUGUST 2, 2022 07:46

Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri killed in CIA drone strike - The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)

In better news, one away, many more needed ASAP.

First grain shipment leaves Ukraine in test of food export deal

Sierra Leone-flagged Razoni carrying 26,000 tonnes of corn departs from Black Sea port of Odesa

 01 August, 2022

A vessel carrying corn has left the port of Odesa for the first time in months, in a crucial test of a grain-export deal between Russia and Ukraine intended to alleviate soaring global food prices.

The Sierra Leone-flagged Razoni, carrying 26,000 tonnes of Ukrainian corn, left the Black Sea Port at 9:48am local time, the ministry of infrastructure said, after weeks of negotiations brokered by Turkey and the UN. Turkey’s defence ministry, which led the negotiations that produced last month’s grain deal, said the Razoni would take its cargo to Tripoli in Lebanon.

It is the first such vessel to depart from Odesa since late February, when Russia invaded Ukraine. The Russian navy blockaded Ukraine’s commercial sea routes, launched missile strikes on its ports and grain storage infrastructure, and attacked civilian grain transport ships.

The vessel was due to arrive in Istanbul on Tuesday, according to a statement by the Joint Co-ordination Centre established as part of the UN-led grain agreement. After reaching Turkey’s biggest city, it was expected to undergo checks at the centre, which is staffed by Russian, Ukrainian, Turkish and UN officials.

Another 16 ships are awaiting departure, the Ukrainian government said, carrying a tiny fraction of the more than 22mn tonnes of wheat, corn and other grains that are in the country. The conflict has left as many as 47mn people globally at risk of acute hunger, according to the World Food Programme.

Long known as the breadbasket of Europe, Ukraine is the world’s fifth-largest exporter of the cereal. It accounts for 80 per cent of Lebanon’s wheat imports and is a big supplier for countries including Somalia, Syria and Libya.

First grain shipment leaves Ukraine in test of food export deal | Financial Times (ft.com)

“War is such a dangerous business that mistakes that come from kindness are the very worst.”

Carl von Clausewitz.

 

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.  

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Exclusive: UK small businesses on high recession alert

MONDAY 01 AUGUST 2022 6:00 AM

British sole traders and small businesses are battening down the hatches in preparation for a looming recession, exclusive research shared with City A.M. reveals.

Over three quarters of small firms are fretting over the UK economy steering into reverse, according to fintech firm iwoca.

Firms are scrambling to boost their cash reserves to help weather the economic downturn. Nearly half of business loan brokers have filed more applications for credit for their clients, the research found.

Steven Scoufarides, head of broker channel at iwoca , said: “The current economic outlook for small businesses is precarious – we are seeing signs of an increasing number of SMEs searching for finance solutions to manage their cash flow and brace for the potential of a recession.”

Higher loan demand can be sign of businesses struggling to cover their fixed costs due to a reduction in revenue caused by shrinking demand.

The UK economy has been plunged into a slump by inflation surging much higher than expected at the beginning of the year. Prices are up 9.4 per cent, the quickest acceleration since 1982, spiking households and businesses.

Output unexpectedly jumped in May by 0.5 per cent, while purchasing managers’ indexes have indicated the UK economy is healthier than the US and eurozone.

Separate research published by insurance broker Gallagher found over one in 10 are worried a reduction in cash flow will knock their bottom line.

Exclusive: UK small businesses on high recession alert (cityam.com)

Retail’s ‘Dark Side’: As Inventory Piles Up, Liquidation Warehouses Are Busy

July 30, 2022

PITTSTON, Pa. — Once upon a time, when parents were scrambling to occupy their children during pandemic lockdowns, bicycles were hard to find. But today, in a giant warehouse in northeastern Pennsylvania, there are shiny new Huffys and Schwinns available at big discounts.

The same goes for patio furniture, garden hoses and portable pizza ovens. There are home spas, Rachael Ray’s nonstick pans and a backyard firepit, which promises to make “memories every day.”

The warehouse is run by Liquidity Services, a company that collects surplus and returned goods from major retailers like Target and Amazon and resells them, often for cents on the dollar. The facility opened last November and is operating at exceptionally high volumes for this time of year.

The warehouse offers a window into a reckoning across the retail industry and the broader economy: After a two-year binge of consumer spending — fueled by government checks and the ease of e-commerce — a nasty hangover is taking hold.

With consumers cutting down on discretionary purchases because of high inflation, retailers are now stuck with more inventory than they need. While overall spending rebounded last month, some major retailers say shoppers are buying less clothing, gardening equipment and electronics and focusing instead on basics like food and gas.

 

Adding to that glut are all the things people bought during the pandemic — often online — and then returned. In 2021, shoppers returned an average of 16.6 percent of their purchases, up from 10.6 percent in 2020 and more than double the rate in 2019, according to an analysis by the National Retail Federation, a trade group, and Appriss Retail, a software and analytics firm.

Last year’s returns, which retailers are not always able to resell themselves, totaled $761 billion in lost sales. That, the retail federation noted, is more than the annual budget for the U.S. Department of Defense.

More

Retail’s ‘Dark Side’: As Inventory Piles Up, Liquidation Warehouses Are Busy – DNyuz

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.

Three types of long COVID each with different symptoms, researchers say

Alexa Phillips

There appear to be three different types of long COVID, each with their own symptoms, researchers have discovered.

One group experiences neurological symptoms including fatigue, brain fog and headache, which most often affect those who contracted the virus when the Alpha and Delta variants were most prevalent, according to experts at King's College London.

A second group suffers from respiratory issues, including chest pain and severe shortness of breath, which could point to lung damage.

These symptoms were common among those infected during the first wave of the pandemic.

The final group is grappling with a diverse range of symptoms including heart palpitations, muscle ache and pain, and changes in skin and hair.

The three sets of symptoms were seen in all variants, researchers added.

Two million people in the UK are estimated to be suffering from long COVID, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported in June, based on self-reports from a representative sample.

Of that two million, 1.4 million said they first had coronavirus, or suspected they had the illness, at least 12 weeks previously, while 826,000 first had it at least a year earlier.

Another 376,000 said they first had COVID-19 at least two years previously.

To draw their conclusions, researchers studied 1,459 people living with long COVID who were taking part in the Zoe Health study and are still dealing with symptoms at least 12 weeks after infection.

More

Three types of long COVID each with different symptoms, researchers say (msn.com)

 Japan reports most weekly COVID-19 cases in world, including record 233,100 daily

JULY 31, 2022 / 11:58 AM

July 31 (UPI) -- Japan reported one-fifth of the world's COVID-19 cases in the past week, including a record 233,100 Thursday, as infections dropped 12% and deaths 7% globally.

On Sunday, Japan announced 197,792 infections for a total of 12,796,261 in 12th place. Deaths were 82 for a total of 32,626 in 30th. Japan surpassed 200,000 for the first time the previous week.

In the past week, Japan added a world-high 1,358,248 infections, a 54% percent gain.

As the BA.5 Omicron subvariant spreads worldwide, infections dropped to 6,216,102 with a daily average of 888,015 and passing 1 million the last time on April 13, according to tracking by Worldometers.info. On Jan. 21, the daily record was set at 3,842,371. The total is 581,999,281, including 671,131 Saturday when Japan added 221,938.

Fatalities in the past week were down to 13,912. That daily average is 1,987 with the recent low 1,235 on July 4, the lowest since 1,075 on March 21, 2020, 10 days after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic. The total is 6,419,467, including 1,207 Saturday. It was last under 1,000 on June 19 with 908.

Some nations do not report data on weekends.

Other case increases in the past week with more than 25,000 in descending order were South Korea 31% with 556,281 in third, Russia 65% with 64,489, Iran 33% with 61,977, Romania 39% with 56,906, Serbia 49% with 38,284.

RELATEDReformulated COVID-19 booster shots could be delivered by September

The United States reported the second most cases, 709,166 but a 23% drop, No. 4 Germany at 522,181 with an 18% decline, No. 5 Italy at 393,916 with a 26% decrease, No. 6 France 345,810 with a 36% drop, No. 7 Australia 312,056 with a 5% decrease.

More

Japan reports most weekly COVID-19 cases in world, including record 233,100 daily - UPI.com

Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Trackerhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine trackerhttps://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Blowhole wave energy generator exceeds expectations in 12-month test

Loz Blain  July 31, 2022

Wave Swell Energy's remarkable UniWave 200 is a sea platform that uses an artificial blowhole formation to create air pressure changes that drive a turbine and feed energy back to shore. After a year of testing, the company reports excellent results.

As we've discussed before, the UniWave system is a floating device that can be towed to any coastal location and connected to the local energy grid. It's designed so that wave swells force water into a specially designed concrete chamber, pressurizing the air in the chamber and forcing it through an outlet valve. Then as the water recedes, it generates a powerful vacuum, which sucks air in through a turbine at the top and generates electricity that's fed into the grid via a cable.

As a result, it draws energy from the entire column of water that enters its chamber, a fact the team says makes it more efficient than wave energy devices that only harvest energy from the surface or the sea floor.

WSE's key innovation here is that one-way generation; other devices that harvest the same effect use bi-directional turbines, requiring the ability to reverse blade pitch or redirect the airflow. WSE says its design allows for far cheaper and more simplistic turbines, that should also last longer since they're not getting as much salt water splashed through them when a big wave hits. Indeed, all this device's moving parts are above the waterline, a fact that should help extend its service life as well as making it completely harmless to marine life.

Interestingly, the UniWave's design also makes it easy to incorporate into breakwaters and seawalls, where it can take a coastal erosion protection project and turn it into a clean energy source. You can see an animation showing how it works in the video below.

More

Blowhole wave energy generator exceeds expectations in 12-month test (newatlas.com)

“No one starts a war--or rather, no one in his sense ought to do so--without first being clear in his mind what he intends to achieve by the war and how he intends to conduct it.”

Carl Von Clausewitz.

 

 

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