Friday, 26 August 2022

The Road To Sri Lanka.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1213 -90    Brent Crude 100.12

Spot Gold 1756          US 2 Year Yield 3.35 -0.01

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 26/08/22 World 604,351,556

Deaths 6,483,148

Road to ... is a series of seven comedy films starring Bing Crosby, Bob Hope, and Dorothy Lamour. They are also often referred to as the "Road " pictures or the "Road " series. The movies were a combination of adventure, comedy, romance, and music. The minimal plot often took a back seat to gags,...

After yesterday’s heavy rain across much of drought hit southern UK, this morning a rare August fog. Across much of Europe including the UK, political food and energy fog.

In the stock casinos, more hopium that Fed Chairman Powell’s speech later today will declare victory over inflation and just one more one and done interest rate rise to come.

Dream on.

But will Chairman Powell set out later today on the Road to Sri Lanka starring himself, Janet Yellen and Joe Biden?


Australia stocks lead gains in Asia ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech

UPDATED FRI, AUG 26 2022 12:51 AM EDT

Shares in the Asia-Pacific rose on Friday as investors look ahead to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole later stateside.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.06%, with banks and mining stocks higher.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.65% while the Topix increased 0.28%. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong gained 0.7%, with the Hang Seng Tech index up 0.57%.

The Kospi in South Korea advanced 0.25% and the Kosdaq was fell 0.29%.

Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite ticked fractionally higher, and the Shenzhen Component gained 0.124%.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 0.67% higher.

“Hawkish commentary out of a cast of Fed speakers overnight was of little consequence as markets await Powell’s keynote at Jackson Hole this evening,” Taylor Nugent, an economist at National Australia Bank, wrote in a note Friday. He noted Fed speakers have said the central bank’s task of fighting inflation isn’t over, and that rates need to enter restrictive territory.

Overnight in the U.S., major indexes rose. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 322.55 points, or 0.98%, to 33,291.78. The S&P 500 gained 1.41% to 4,199.12, and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.67% to 12,639.27.

A slew of companies listed in Hong Kong will be reporting earnings, including Meituan.

More

Asia markets: Stocks rise ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole speech (cnbc.com)

In Europe it’s panic time over the high price of natural gas and electricity and we haven’t even got to winter yet.

Near St Petersburg Russia, Gazprom is flaring off half a day’s German gas supply every day, just to rub Germany’s nose in the ground as German industry faces a winter of fuel bankruptcy.

From Ireland to Poland, from Denmark to Italy, the UK and Europe face a winter like no other since WW2.

Governments everywhere, face demands for Covid style bailouts from the Magic Money Tree forests discovered back in March 2020.

 

French Power Hits 900 Euros as Nuclear Outages Amplify Crisis

Thu, August 25, 2022 at 5:01 p.m

(Bloomberg) -- The cost of French power jumped to a fresh record as its nuclear fleet faces further outages going into what’s set to be a very expensive winter.

Futures soared 15% to 900 euros per megawatt-hour -- more than 10 times the price at this time last year.

The surge is being driven by Electricite de France SA’s announcement that more of its reactors will take longer to come back online after halts. The outages affect plants with a combined capacity of 8,380 megawatts -- almost 14% of France’s total nuclear capacity.

Europe is in the grip of an energy crisis amid tighter hydropower supplies and natural gas cuts from Russia, which are pushing up the price of the fuel used in the continent’s power stations. Supplies are set to drop further from Aug. 31, when Russia’s Gazprom PJSC plans to shut the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany for three days of maintenance, triggering fears that shipments may not resume.

In France, six reactor outages have been extended since Wednesday afternoon, as well as a new one announced at the Paluel 4 reactor for four days. Some of the shutdowns are just for a few days, while others have been extended by as many as two months.

Embattled state-run Electricite de France SA is facing full nationalization as part of the government’s plans to get the country’s power system back on its feet. France normally exports power to its neighbors like the UK and Germany for most of the year, but the reverse is expected in 2022, and it may need to import electricity during long periods this winter -- if its neighbors have the capacity to provide it.

Power for France’s winter is also getting particularly expensive. Baseload power for November gained 9.2% to 1,660 euros, with peak-load energy-- for periods of high demand -- trading at 2,881 euros.

Pressure is mounting on European leaders to ease the pain facing their citizens. On Friday, the UK regulator is set to announce an increase in household bills to a level about three times last winter’s, further stretching consumer budgets and raising the prospect of a recession.

In Germany, Europe’s largest market, power prices for next year soared as much as 23% to an all-time high of 792 euros a megawatt-hour.

Day-ahead prices also rose to records across Europe, including in Germany, France and the UK. The highest was in Italy, where electricity for Friday jumped 17% to a record 718.71 euros per megawatt hour, according to data from Gestore dei Mercati Energetici SpA.

More

French Power Hits 900 Euros as Nuclear Outages Amplify Crisis (yahoo.com)

 

New UK PM must be radical to stop power bill catastrophe - think tank

By Humza Jilani 

LONDON, Aug 25(Reuters) - Britain's next prime minister must adopt radical ideas - such as discounted power tariffs, energy bill freezes or a "solidarity" tax hike for higher earners - to cushion the energy price shock for a broad swathe of households, a think-tank said on Thursday.

A day before a latest big jump in power tariffs is due to be announced, the Resolution Foundation said tens of billions of pounds in new government support had to be targeted at households least able to cope with surging energy costs, and ensure that no one needing help misses out.

"A catastrophe is coming this winter as soaring energy bills risk causing serious physical and financial damage to families across Britain," Jonny Marshall, a senior economist at the foundation, said.

"The new prime minister will need to think the unthinkable in terms of the policies needed to get sufficient support to where it's needed most."

The front-runner in the race for Downing Street, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, wants to cut taxes to address the cost-of-living crisis.

----The foundation proposed options such as a cheap power tariff for low- and middle-income households, a universal 30% cut in the energy price cap or a one pence-in-the-pound tax increase for higher-income households.

It also said lump sum payments that reflect household size should be considered.

The opposition Labour Party wants a price cap freeze for all households, funded by a windfall tax on oil and gas producers.

The Resolution Foundation said Labour's measures risked creating more inflation pressure and forcing the Bank of England to increase interest rates more aggressively.

Britain's government has so far committed more than 30 billion pounds ($35.36 billion) in cost-of-living support for households, almost half the cost of its pandemic-era furlough programme to prop up the labour market.

Separately on Thursday, a group representing employers called for immediate pandemic-style support for companies from the government in the form of emergency grants, and for the reversal of the new, higher social security contributions.

More

New UK PM must be radical to stop power bill catastrophe - think tank | Reuters

Finally, is the future green hydrogen?

 

Fleet of hydrogen passenger trains begins service in Germany

August 24, 2022

BERLIN (AP) — German officials launched what they say is the world’s first fleet of hydrogen-powered passenger trains Wednesday, replacing 15 diesel trains that previously operated on nonelectrified tracks in the state of Lower Saxony.

The 14 trains use hydrogen fuel cells to generate electricity that powers the engines. The German government has backed expanding the use of hydrogen as a clean alternative to fossil fuels.

State governor Stephan Weil said the 93-million-euro ($92 million) project was an “excellent example” for Lower Saxony’s efforts to make its economy greener.

The trains manufactured by French company Alstom are operated by regional rail company LNVG on routes between the northern towns of Cuxhaven, Bremerhaven, Bremervoerde and Buxtehude.

Alstom says the Coradia iLint trains have a range of up to 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) and a maximum speed of 140 kph (87 mph). By using hydrogen produced with renewable energy the trains will save 1.6 million liters (more than 422,000 gallons) of diesel fuel a year.

The hydrogen is currently produced as a byproduct in chemical processes, but German specialty gas company Linde plans to manufacture it locally using only renewable energy within three years.

Fleet of hydrogen passenger trains begins service in Germany | AP News

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.  

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Inflation’s harsh realities on display as Fed officials meet

JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming (AP) — A half-hour drive or so from the resort where the high priests of international finance — leading economists and central bank officials — have convened in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to discuss the world’s economic challenges, Ash Hermanowski oversees the distribution of about 1,200 free meals a day.

At a food bank called Jackson Cupboard, Hermanowski hands out meals from a commercial garage after being forced from a previous site by a malfunctioning sprinkler. The food bank couldn’t afford any other place in town.

Just across the street, The Glenwood, a collection of townhomes that will sell for millions, is nearing completion. “Unparalleled luxury,” its website says, in a “truly relaxing oasis.”

It’s the “ultimate irony,” Hermanowski said. “The staff and I, we talk about it all the time. We all struggle to live here, and they’re building high-end residences. That dichotomy exists all over town, but people refuse to see it.”

As the Federal Reserve’s annual economic symposium gets under way Thursday at a lodge in Grand Teton National Park, some of the very problems Fed officials are grappling with — high inflation, soaring rental costs and home prices and wide economic inequalities — can be found near the idyllic mountain setting.

On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech that could signal how high or how fast the central bank may raise interest rates in the coming months. Powell’s remarks will be scrutinized by Wall Street traders and economists and could potentially cause sharp swings in financial markets.

In its drive to tame the worst inflation bout the nation has endured in four decades, the Powell Fed has embarked on its fastest series of rate hikes since the early 1980s. The Fed is trying to slow the economy just enough to cool inflation without causing a recession — a notoriously delicate task.

Inflation is particularly high in the town of Jackson and the surrounding Teton County, which, even before the pandemic erupted two years ago, was the wealthiest and most unequal place in the nation. (Jackson Hole is the name of the broader valley.) The state of Wyoming has calculated that the cost of living in the county at the end of 2021 was 68% higher than in the rest of the state — with housing costs 130% higher.

At the food bank, Hermanowski says, demand has escalated from a year ago as surging food and gas prices have sapped the budgets of their clients. Roughly 85% of the food bank’s recipients have a job, often more than one, said Sharel Lund, executive director of one22, a nonprofit that includes Jackson Cupboard.

Like many resort towns, Jackson has always been expensive. But the pandemic turbocharged the disparities that have widened the gap between the wealthy and everyone else. Real estate prices soared as many affluent families, seeking to escape crowded cities, moved into the Jackson area or spent more time at vacation homes they already owned.

More

Inflation's harsh realities on display as Fed officials meet | AP News

Italy’s natural gas storage is 80% full as prices hit record

MILAN (AP) — Italy’s push to rapidly reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas has made the country less vulnerable to an interruption of supplies, Premier Mario Draghi said Wednesday, noting that gas storage is 80% full ahead of winter and on track to hit 90% by October.

Draghi told an annual summertime festival in the Adriatic seaside town of Rimini that Italy has reduced its reliance on Russian natural gas from 40% last year to half that by finding new sources in countries from Algeria to Azerbaijan. The fuel is used to heat and cool homes, generate electricity and run factories.

Italy could be completely independent of Russia by fall 2024 if it installs two new regasification plants, he added.

“Our goal of diversifying from Russian gas was fundamental to giving citizens and businesses greater certainly about the stability of supplies,” said Draghi, who resigned last month after key right-wing parties yanked support for his unity government.

He remains in office until a new government can be formed following Sept. 25 parliamentary elections.

Public resistance is growing to one of the planned offshore regasification plants near the industrial port city of Piombino, in Tuscany, and how plans proceed will be a key indicator of whether parties that win the Sept. 25 vote intend to continue Draghi’s path of reducing reliance on Russian energy.

Taking a swipe at right-wing parties that advocate sovereignty, Draghi said energy reliance on “a country that never stopped pursuing its imperial past is the exact opposite of sovereignty.”

His comments come as Russia’s war in Ukraine has driven natural gas prices to record highs, fueling inflation worldwide. Moscow has reduced gas flows to European countries as they try to bolster their reserves for the winter heating season, and fears are rising that deliveries could be cut off completely. That could lead to rationing by companies and push countries into recession.

Germany said Tuesday that its gas storage is 80% full but warned that Russia’s plan to halt flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for three days next week “could temporarily dampen” the effort.

Patrick Graichen, Germany’s deputy economy and energy minister, said Wednesday that he believes gas markets are already pricing in the possibility that Nord Stream 1 won’t reopen. Russia’s state-controlled energy giant Gazprom said the scheduled downtime from Aug. 31 to Sept. 2 was for “routine maintenance.”

More

Italy's natural gas storage is 80% full as prices hit record | AP News

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.

No update today. Normal service, hopefully, tomorrow.


Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Trackerhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine trackerhttps://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

As goes CA so goes America. As goes America so goes the world.

California set to ban fossil fuel cars by 2035

Issued on: 24/08/2022 - 23:30

Los Angeles (AFP) – All new cars sold in California by 2035 will have to be zero emission under plans set to be adopted by the state this week, as the biggest economy in the United States drives a nationwide fossil fuel evolution.

Proposals to be debated by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) this week will formalize targets set by Governor Gavin Newsom -- and will likely prod other US states in the same direction.

The plans, which board member Daniel Sperling recently told CNN he was "99.9 percent" confident would be adopted, also include incremental steps mandating more than a third of 2026 car sales in the state be zero emission, and over two-thirds by 2030.

"This is monumental," Sperling told CNN. "This is the most important thing that CARB has done in the last 30 years. It's important not just for California, but it's important for the country and the world."

California's more-than 40 million consumers make it the biggest market in the United States.

As such, rules imposed there impact manufacturers' production plans across the country, as well as further afield, because they cannot afford to miss out.

This means California can, in effect, set national standards.

The likely ruling Thursday comes on the heels of a climate law signed last week by US President Joe Biden, which sets aside hundreds of millions of dollars in incentives for clean energy programs.

Biden and his Democratic Party are rushing to make up climate policy ground they feel was lost under former president Donald Trump, who yanked the United States out of the Paris Climate Accord and reversed what many environmentalists viewed as already-weak progress in combating the fossil fuel emissions that drive global warming.

In recent years jurisdictions around the world, notably in Europe, have set their sights on the polluting automobile sector.

Norway is aiming to have all new cars produce zero tailpipe emissions by 2025.

The UK, Singapore and Israel are eyeing 2030, while the European Union wants to end the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2035.

Human-caused global warming has already raised average temperatures around the planet, affecting weather patterns and worsening natural hazards like wildfires and storms.

Scientists say dramatic action is required to limit the damage, and point to curbing emissions from fossil fuels as key to the battle.

California set to ban fossil fuel cars by 2035 (france24.com)

Another weekend and a summer bank holiday weekend in the most populous part of the UK. Elsewhere, the disgraceful war in Ukraine goes on with no end in sight. 2022 is likely to go down in history like 1914 as the end of the era of cheap energy and food. 1914 began the era of the end of empires. Have a great weekend everyone.

Welcome to the Academy Awards or, as it's called at my home, 'Passover.'

Bob Hope.

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