Baltic Dry Index. 1213 -90 Brent Crude 100.12
Spot Gold 1756 US 2 Year Yield 3.35 -0.01
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 26/08/22 World 604,351,556
Deaths 6,483,148
Road to ... is a series of seven comedy films starring Bing Crosby, Bob Hope, and Dorothy Lamour. They are also often referred to as the "Road " pictures or the "Road " series. The movies were a combination of adventure, comedy, romance, and music. The minimal plot often took a back seat to gags,...
After yesterday’s heavy rain across much of drought hit southern UK, this morning a rare August fog. Across much of Europe including the UK, political food and energy fog.
In the stock casinos, more hopium that Fed Chairman Powell’s speech later today will declare victory over inflation and just one more one and done interest rate rise to come.
Dream on.
But will Chairman Powell set out later today on the Road to Sri Lanka starring himself, Janet Yellen and Joe Biden?
Australia stocks
lead gains in Asia ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech
UPDATED FRI, AUG 26 2022 12:51 AM EDT
Shares in the Asia-Pacific rose on Friday as
investors look ahead to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole later
stateside.
In Australia,
the S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.06%, with banks and mining stocks higher.
Japan’s Nikkei
225 added 0.65% while the Topix increased 0.28%. The Hang Seng index in
Hong Kong gained 0.7%, with the Hang Seng Tech index up 0.57%.
The Kospi in
South Korea advanced 0.25% and the Kosdaq was fell 0.29%.
Mainland
China’s Shanghai Composite ticked fractionally higher, and the Shenzhen
Component gained 0.124%.
MSCI’s broadest
index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 0.67% higher.
“Hawkish commentary
out of a cast of Fed speakers overnight was of little consequence as markets
await Powell’s keynote at Jackson Hole this evening,” Taylor Nugent, an
economist at National Australia Bank, wrote in a note Friday. He noted Fed
speakers have said the central bank’s task of fighting inflation isn’t over,
and that rates need to enter restrictive territory.
Overnight in the
U.S., major indexes rose. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 322.55
points, or 0.98%, to 33,291.78. The S&P 500 gained 1.41% to 4,199.12, and
the Nasdaq Composite added 1.67% to 12,639.27.
A slew of companies
listed in Hong Kong will be reporting earnings, including Meituan.
More
Asia markets: Stocks rise ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole speech (cnbc.com)
In Europe it’s panic time over the high price of natural gas and electricity and we haven’t even got to winter yet.
Near St Petersburg Russia, Gazprom is flaring off half a day’s German gas supply every day, just to rub Germany’s nose in the ground as German industry faces a winter of fuel bankruptcy.
From Ireland to Poland, from Denmark to Italy, the UK and Europe face a winter like no other since WW2.
Governments
everywhere, face demands for Covid style bailouts from the Magic Money Tree
forests discovered back in March 2020.
French Power Hits 900
Euros as Nuclear Outages Amplify Crisis
Thu,
August 25, 2022 at 5:01 p.m
(Bloomberg)
-- The cost of French power jumped to a fresh record as its nuclear fleet faces
further outages going into what’s set to be a very expensive winter.
Futures soared 15% to 900 euros per
megawatt-hour -- more than 10 times the price at this time last year.
The surge is being driven by
Electricite de France SA’s announcement that more of its reactors will take
longer to come back online after halts. The outages affect plants with a
combined capacity of 8,380 megawatts -- almost 14% of France’s total nuclear
capacity.
Europe is in the grip of an energy
crisis amid tighter hydropower supplies and natural gas cuts from Russia, which
are pushing up the price of the fuel used in the continent’s power stations.
Supplies are set to drop further from Aug. 31, when Russia’s Gazprom PJSC plans
to shut the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany for three days of maintenance,
triggering fears that shipments may not resume.
In France, six reactor outages have
been extended since Wednesday afternoon, as well as a new one announced at the
Paluel 4 reactor for four days. Some of the shutdowns are just for a few days,
while others have been extended by as many as two months.
Embattled state-run Electricite de
France SA is facing full nationalization as part of the government’s plans to
get the country’s power system back on its feet. France normally exports power
to its neighbors like the UK and Germany for most of the year, but the reverse
is expected in 2022, and it may need to import electricity during long periods
this winter -- if its neighbors have the capacity to provide it.
Power for France’s winter is also
getting particularly expensive. Baseload power for November gained 9.2% to
1,660 euros, with peak-load energy-- for periods of high demand -- trading at
2,881 euros.
Pressure is mounting on European
leaders to ease the pain facing their citizens. On Friday, the UK regulator is
set to announce an increase in household bills to a level about three times
last winter’s, further stretching consumer budgets and raising the prospect of
a recession.
In Germany, Europe’s largest market,
power prices for next year soared as much as 23% to an all-time high of 792
euros a megawatt-hour.
Day-ahead prices also rose to records across Europe, including in Germany, France and the UK. The highest was in Italy, where electricity for Friday jumped 17% to a record 718.71 euros per megawatt hour, according to data from Gestore dei Mercati Energetici SpA.
More
French
Power Hits 900 Euros as Nuclear Outages Amplify Crisis (yahoo.com)
New
UK PM must be radical to stop power bill catastrophe - think tank
By Humza Jilani August
25, 2022 8:46 AM GMT+1
LONDON, Aug
25(Reuters) - Britain's next prime minister must adopt radical ideas - such as
discounted power tariffs, energy bill freezes or a "solidarity" tax
hike for higher earners - to cushion the energy price shock for a broad swathe
of households, a think-tank said on Thursday.
A day before a
latest big jump in power tariffs is due to be announced, the Resolution
Foundation said tens of billions of pounds in new government support had to be
targeted at households least able to cope with surging energy costs, and ensure
that no one needing help misses out.
"A catastrophe
is coming this winter as soaring energy bills risk causing serious physical and
financial damage to families across Britain," Jonny Marshall, a senior
economist at the foundation, said.
"The new prime
minister will need to think the unthinkable in terms of the policies needed to
get sufficient support to where it's needed most."
The front-runner in
the race for Downing Street, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, wants to cut taxes to
address the cost-of-living crisis.
----The
foundation proposed options such as a cheap power tariff for low- and
middle-income households, a universal 30% cut in the energy price cap or a one
pence-in-the-pound tax increase for higher-income households.
It also said lump
sum payments that reflect household size should be considered.
The opposition
Labour Party wants a price cap freeze for all households, funded by a windfall
tax on oil and gas producers.
The Resolution
Foundation said Labour's measures risked creating more inflation pressure and
forcing the Bank of England to increase interest rates more aggressively.
Britain's
government has so far committed more than 30 billion pounds ($35.36 billion) in
cost-of-living support for households, almost half the cost of its pandemic-era
furlough programme to prop up the labour market.
Separately on
Thursday, a group representing employers called for immediate pandemic-style
support for companies from the government in the form of emergency grants, and
for the reversal of the new, higher social security contributions.
More
New UK PM must be
radical to stop power bill catastrophe - think tank | Reuters
Finally,
is the future green hydrogen?
Fleet
of hydrogen passenger trains begins service in Germany
August 24, 2022
BERLIN (AP) — German officials launched what they say is
the world’s first fleet of hydrogen-powered passenger trains Wednesday,
replacing 15 diesel trains that previously operated on nonelectrified tracks in
the state of Lower Saxony.
The 14 trains use hydrogen fuel cells to generate
electricity that powers the engines. The German government has backed expanding
the use of hydrogen as a clean alternative to fossil fuels.
State governor Stephan Weil said the 93-million-euro ($92
million) project was an “excellent example” for Lower Saxony’s efforts to make
its economy greener.
The trains manufactured by French company Alstom are
operated by regional rail company LNVG on routes between the northern towns of
Cuxhaven, Bremerhaven, Bremervoerde and Buxtehude.
Alstom says the Coradia iLint trains have a range of up
to 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) and a maximum speed of 140 kph (87 mph). By
using hydrogen produced with renewable energy the trains will save 1.6 million
liters (more than 422,000 gallons) of diesel fuel a year.
The hydrogen is currently produced as a byproduct in
chemical processes, but German specialty gas company Linde plans to manufacture
it locally using only renewable energy within three years.
Fleet of hydrogen passenger trains begins service in Germany | AP News
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
Inflation’s harsh realities on display as Fed officials
meet
JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming (AP) — A half-hour drive or so from
the resort where the high priests of international finance — leading economists
and central bank officials — have convened in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to discuss
the world’s economic challenges, Ash Hermanowski oversees the distribution of about
1,200 free meals a day.
At a food bank called Jackson Cupboard, Hermanowski hands
out meals from a commercial garage after being forced from a previous site by a
malfunctioning sprinkler. The food bank couldn’t afford any other place in
town.
Just across the street, The Glenwood, a collection of
townhomes that will sell for millions, is nearing completion. “Unparalleled
luxury,” its
website says, in a “truly
relaxing oasis.”
It’s the “ultimate irony,” Hermanowski said. “The staff
and I, we talk about it all the time. We all struggle to live here, and they’re
building high-end residences. That dichotomy exists all over town, but people
refuse to see it.”
As the
Federal Reserve’s annual economic symposium gets under way Thursday at a lodge
in Grand Teton National Park, some of the very problems Fed officials are
grappling with — high inflation,
soaring rental costs and
home prices and wide economic inequalities — can be found near the idyllic
mountain setting.
On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech
that could signal how high or how fast the central bank may raise interest
rates in the coming months. Powell’s remarks will be scrutinized by Wall Street
traders and economists and could potentially cause sharp swings in financial
markets.
In its drive to tame the worst inflation bout the nation
has endured in four decades, the Powell Fed has embarked on its fastest series of rate hikes since the early 1980s. The Fed is trying to slow
the economy just enough to cool inflation without causing a recession — a
notoriously delicate task.
Inflation is particularly high in the town of Jackson and
the surrounding Teton County, which, even before the pandemic erupted two years
ago, was the wealthiest and most unequal place in the nation. (Jackson Hole is the name of the broader valley.)
The state of Wyoming has calculated that
the cost of living in the county at the end of 2021 was 68% higher than in the
rest of the state — with housing costs 130% higher.
At the food bank, Hermanowski says, demand has escalated
from a year ago as surging food and gas prices have sapped the budgets of their
clients. Roughly 85% of the food bank’s recipients have a job, often more than
one, said Sharel Lund, executive director of one22, a nonprofit that includes
Jackson Cupboard.
Like many resort towns, Jackson has always been
expensive. But the pandemic turbocharged the disparities that have widened the
gap between the wealthy and everyone else. Real estate prices soared as many
affluent families, seeking to escape crowded cities, moved into the Jackson
area or spent more time at vacation homes they already owned.
More
Inflation's harsh realities on display as Fed
officials meet | AP News
Italy’s natural gas storage is 80% full as prices hit
record
MILAN (AP) — Italy’s push to rapidly reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas has made the country less vulnerable to an interruption of supplies, Premier Mario Draghi said Wednesday, noting that gas
storage is 80% full ahead of winter and on track to hit 90% by October.
Draghi told an annual summertime festival in the Adriatic
seaside town of Rimini that Italy has reduced its reliance on Russian natural gas from 40% last year to half that by finding new sources in countries from Algeria to
Azerbaijan. The fuel is used to
heat and cool homes, generate electricity and run factories.
Italy could be completely independent of Russia by fall
2024 if it installs two new regasification plants, he added.
“Our
goal of diversifying from Russian gas was fundamental to giving citizens and
businesses greater certainly about the stability of supplies,” said Draghi, who
resigned last month after key right-wing parties yanked support for his unity
government.
He remains in office until a new government can be formed
following Sept. 25 parliamentary elections.
Public resistance is growing to one of the planned
offshore regasification plants near the industrial port city of Piombino, in
Tuscany, and how plans proceed will be a key indicator of whether parties that
win the Sept. 25 vote intend to continue Draghi’s path of reducing reliance on
Russian energy.
Taking a swipe at right-wing parties that advocate
sovereignty, Draghi said energy reliance on “a country that never stopped
pursuing its imperial past is the exact opposite of sovereignty.”
His comments come as Russia’s war in Ukraine has driven natural gas prices to record
highs, fueling inflation worldwide. Moscow has
reduced gas flows to European countries as they try to bolster their reserves for the winter heating season, and fears are rising that deliveries could be cut off
completely. That could lead to rationing by companies and push countries into recession.
Germany said Tuesday that its gas storage is 80% full but warned that Russia’s plan to halt flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for three days next week “could temporarily dampen”
the effort.
Patrick Graichen, Germany’s deputy economy and energy
minister, said Wednesday that he believes gas markets are already pricing in
the possibility that Nord Stream 1 won’t reopen. Russia’s state-controlled
energy giant Gazprom said the scheduled downtime from Aug. 31 to Sept. 2 was
for “routine maintenance.”
More
Italy's natural
gas storage is 80% full as prices hit record | AP News
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
No update today. Normal
service, hopefully, tomorrow.
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine
Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19
vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
As goes CA so goes America. As goes
America so goes the world.
California set to ban fossil
fuel cars by 2035
Issued
on: 24/08/2022 - 23:30
Los Angeles (AFP) – All new cars sold in California by
2035 will have to be zero emission under plans set to be adopted by the state
this week, as the biggest economy in the United States drives a nationwide
fossil fuel evolution.
Proposals to be debated by the
California Air Resources Board (CARB) this week will formalize targets set by
Governor Gavin Newsom -- and will likely prod other US states in the same
direction.
The plans, which board member Daniel
Sperling recently told CNN he was "99.9 percent" confident would be
adopted, also include incremental steps mandating more than a third of 2026 car
sales in the state be zero emission, and over two-thirds by 2030.
"This is monumental,"
Sperling told CNN. "This is the most important thing that CARB has done in
the last 30 years. It's important not just for California, but it's important
for the country and the world."
California's more-than 40 million
consumers make it the biggest market in the United States.
As such, rules imposed there impact
manufacturers' production plans across the country, as well as further afield,
because they cannot afford to miss out.
This means California can, in effect,
set national standards.
The likely ruling Thursday comes on the
heels of a climate law signed last week by US President Joe Biden, which sets
aside hundreds of millions of dollars in incentives for clean energy programs.
Biden and his Democratic Party are
rushing to make up climate policy ground they feel was lost under former
president Donald Trump, who yanked the United States out of the Paris Climate
Accord and reversed what many environmentalists viewed as already-weak progress
in combating the fossil fuel emissions that drive global warming.
In recent years jurisdictions around
the world, notably in Europe, have set their sights on the polluting automobile
sector.
Norway is aiming to have all new cars
produce zero tailpipe emissions by 2025.
The UK, Singapore and Israel are eyeing
2030, while the European Union wants to end the sale of new petrol and diesel
cars by 2035.
Human-caused global warming has already
raised average temperatures around the planet, affecting weather patterns and
worsening natural hazards like wildfires and storms.
Scientists say dramatic action is
required to limit the damage, and point to curbing emissions from fossil fuels
as key to the battle.
California set to
ban fossil fuel cars by 2035 (france24.com)
Another weekend and a summer bank
holiday weekend in the most populous part of the UK. Elsewhere, the disgraceful
war in Ukraine goes on with no end in sight. 2022 is likely to go down in
history like 1914 as the end of the era of cheap energy and food. 1914 began
the era of the end of empires. Have a great weekend everyone.
Welcome to the Academy Awards or, as it's called at my home,
'Passover.'
Bob Hope.
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