The Great Gold U-Turn.

Baltic Dry Index. 2495 -15

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised.

"Gold was not selected arbitrarily by governments to be the monetary standard. Gold had developed for many centuries on the free market as the best money; as the commodity providing the most stable and desirable monetary medium."

Murray N. Rothbard

Later this week, on November 11 -12, the world’s greatest and goodest, assemble in Seoul South Korea, to all intents and purposes, to give President Obama and his Chief Devaluation Officer, Dr. Bernoccio, a “shellacking”. But first this bombshell news from the World Bank. Stay long precious metals and say goodbye the silver shorts. While the gold shorts might have a case for a bailout if they were secretly doing the central banksters bidding, there is no such case for the silver shorts. Having abandoned a bi-metalic standard more than 100 years ago, no central bank had a legitimate interest in manipulating the price of silver lower. This truly represents a seismic shift. The World Bank is now speaking the unthinkable. The next Lehman, or the next currency crisis brings back the official remonetisation of gold. The world's publc has already unofficially remonetised it.

"As fewer and fewer people have confidence in paper as a store of value, the price of gold will continue to rise."

Jerome F. Smith

Nov. 7, 2010, 11:19 p.m. EST

World Bank chief calls for new gold standard

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) –- The president of the World Bank said in a newspaper editorial Monday that the Group of 20 leading economies should consider adopting a global reserve currency based on gold as part of structural reforms to the world’s foreign-exchange regime.

World Bank chief Robert Zoellick said in an article the Financial Times that leading economies should consider “employing gold as an international reference point of market expectations about inflation, deflation and future currency values.”

Zoellick made the proposal as part of reforms to be considered at this week’s G-20 meeting in Seoul.

“Although textbooks may view gold as the old money, markets are using gold as an alternative monetary asset today,” said Zoellick.

He said such a reform would reflect economic realities and should be considered as a successor to the existing global currency paradigm known as “Bretton Woods II.”

----Zoellick said a return to some sort of currency link to gold would be “practical and feasible, not radical.”

“This new system is likely to need to involve the dollar, the euro, the yen, the pound and a renminbi that moves towards internationalization and then an open capital account,” he said

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/world-bank-chief-calls-for-new-gold-standard-2010-11-07

Now back to the coming Sumo tag team match in Seoul. The G-1 has infuriated the other G-18, by setting out on a currency war with all the others. Great Britain, G-6 or G-7 in the pecking order of America, the EU, China, Japan, Germany et al, fully supports the G-1 since it’s following the same QE policy, but the British Prime Minister, leader of a weak coalition government likely heading to oblivion if their compromise austerity program doesn’t deliver as promised, will likely try just to keep out of the way. Away in a corner ignored and pitied by all, will be the US Treasury Secretary rambling away about his “strong dollar” policy, and how America will never use the fiat reserve dollar standard for its own advantage. Below, Reuters covers the upcoming meeting, and luckily for Prime Minister Cameron, hasn’t noticed that H.M.’s G. was the first of the big nations to adopt devaluation via QE to seek competitive advantage.

"The first requisite of a sound monetary system is that it put the least possible power over the quantity or quality of money in the hands of the politicians."

Henry Hazlitt

G20 finds common ground opposing U.S

Sun Nov 7, 2010 3:02pm EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Group of 20 is beginning to look more like the G19 plus 1 as emerging and rich countries alike accuse the United States of breaking a vow of unity.

This week's G20 summit will require every bit of President Barack Obama's diplomacy skills after the Federal Reserve embarked on a new $600 billion bond-buying spree, sparking criticism from four continents that the U.S. central bank was ignoring the global repercussions.

Officials from Germany, Brazil, China and South Africa were among those expressing concern that the Fed's money printing could weaken the dollar, drive up commodity prices and send uncontrollable waves of investor cash into emerging markets.

If the G20 fails to defuse these global tensions, it may heighten investor concerns that policymakers are drifting further apart, leaving the world economy vulnerable to another bout of upheaval.

Domestic politics and policies make Obama's job tougher.

He arrives in Seoul for the November 11-12 summit weakened by a crushing congressional election defeat for his Democratic Party. His primary task will be to convince his peers the Fed's actions do not run counter to a U.S.-led push for global cooperation to even out economic imbalances

South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan said the Fed's move "undermines the spirit of multilateral cooperation that G20 leaders have fought so hard to maintain during the current crisis."

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble was less diplomatic. He called U.S. policy "clueless."

---- G20 countries submitted their medium-term economic plans for International Monetary Fund review last month. Leaders may agree to keep this process going beyond Seoul, keeping the IMF as arbiter.

The Fund told the G20 nations in June that if they adopt mutually supportive policies, they could raise global output by $4 trillion and create 52 million jobs in the medium term.

Unless leaders can put on a convincing show of cooperation in Seoul this week, those loftier economic goals may remain well out of reach.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6A62BC20101107?pageNumber=1

It’s hard to see anything meaningful coming out of this G-20 meeting, since the Fed can hardly reverse a policy that they only announced last week. Worse, the G-1 following last week’s elections, has gone from the Goldilocks economy of 2005 to the Gridlocked economy of 2011, with 3 hard liners joining the Fed in January, very likely taking away Dr Bernoccio’s ability to bring in QE3. At least, for a year or so anyway. With the political side of US government gridlocked, the Fed’s arriving 3 musketeers, threaten to gridlock the last remaining fully functioning part of the US government. If that happens, it’s all down to the Fed’s NY trading desk of serial interventionists. Great vampire squids and pigs in heaven come to mind, as the great commodity super cycle embarks on the next leg up.

Below, the NY Times covers the new age of austerity coming to America no matter what happens in Washington. While austerity is good once it ends and the populace reaches the promised land, going through the process leads to a lot of discontent and unexpected outcomes. Below, the Republican Moses line up to lead America’s masses towards the promised land of fiscal milk and honey. I suspect that 2011-2012 will bring it’s Aaron golden calf moment, before the land of milk and honey is reached.

Now in Power, G.O.P. Vows Cuts in State Budgets

By MONICA DAVEY and MICHAEL LUO Published: November 7, 2010

Republicans who have taken over state capitols across the country are promising to respond to crippling budget deficits with an array of cuts, among them proposals to reduce public workers’ benefits in Wisconsin, scale back social services in Maine and sell off state liquor stores in Pennsylvania, endangering the jobs of thousands of state workers.

States face huge deficits, even after several grueling years of them, and just as billions of dollars in stimulus money from Washington is drying up.

With some of these new Republican state leaders having taken the possibility of tax increases off the table in their campaigns, deep cuts in state spending will be needed. These leaders, committed to smaller government, say that is the idea.

“We’re going to do what families and businesses all over this country have already had to do, and that is live within their means,” said Brian Bosma, a Republican who will soon become the speaker of the Indiana House, alongside a Republican governor, Mitch Daniels, and a supermajority of Republicans in the State Senate.

Mr. Bosma said state revenues next year are expected to reach only the levels of about five years ago, creating an enormous strain. “We’re going to do what is right, and we’ll let the politics land where they may,” he said.

All sorts of candidates make all sorts of promises along campaign trails, but there is a difference after last week’s election: in many states, Republicans have gained such control that when they take office in the coming months they will have a much easier time carrying out whatever agenda they choose.

Republicans gained more than 690 seats in state legislatures (leaving them with numbers last seen more than 80 years ago), at least five more governor seats, and, perhaps most significant, across-the-board power in the legislatures and governor’s offices of at least 20 states — more than twice as many as before the election. Included in that group were Maine and Wisconsin, which the day before the election had been entirely in Democratic hands.

“It’s kind of put up or shut up time,“ said Scott Walker, the governor-elect of Wisconsin, which experienced the largest flip in power in memory. Mr. Walker, a Republican, said he intended to navigate a projected $3 billion budget gap with no tax increases. He also said he planned to remove all “litigation, regulation, excessive cost“ barriers to businesses (declaring Wisconsin, on election night, “open for business!”), and to put an end to a plan for a federally financed rail project between Milwaukee and Madison that he says would cost too much for the state to operate once it is built.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/08/us/politics/08govs.html?_r=1&hp

In European news, the Greek crisis is over according to the Journal. The work and tax shy Greeks voted like turkey’s voting for Thanksgiving and voted to support the government’s harsh austerity plans, in local elections that had morphed into referendum on the government’s austerity program. At least, that’s the way the Greek government and EU spin meisters are spinning it. But was the vote really that simple? On to next Sunday for the definitive round two.

NOVEMBER 8, 2010

Greek Socialists Narrowly Win Local Vote

ATHENS—Greece's ruling Socialists survived a key test of their popularity on Sunday, winning a narrow victory in local elections that were widely seen as a referendum on the government's harsh, three-year austerity program.

With Socialist candidates winning in a majority of Greece's 13 electoral regions and in three of the country's five biggest cities, the government is now less likely to proceed with snap national elections, a threat it had dangled before voters but one that had unsettled the country's financial markets and drawn veiled criticism from Greece's international lenders.

In nationally televised remarks, Prime Minister George Papandreou said voters had backed the government's program and gave no hint that he planned to call early elections after just 13 months in office.

"We know that change is not an easy process," Mr. Papandreou said. "But the Greek people brought us to power one year ago to effect that change. And today they confirmed that they still want that change."

In May, Greece narrowly avoided default with the help of a €110 billion ($154 billion) bailout from the International Monetary Fund and European Union in exchange for a three-year austerity and reform program.

That program has led to steep cuts in pensions and public-sector salaries, as well as a raft of new taxes on a range of items from cigarettes to basic foodstuffs.

The spending cuts and new taxes have also weighed on the economy, which is expected to shrink 4% this year, while unemployment has rocketed to 12% in July from 9.6% a year earlier and business bankruptcies have soared.

But the polls also come amid widespread voter discontent with as many as four in 10 Greek voters staying home. In national elections last October, more than 70% of the electorate voted.

"I didn't go to vote because I didn't want to waste my time with this decayed political system," said Kostantina Antonopoulou, a 34-year-old engineer. "I am sick of the incompetence and the corruption, and I can't see anything changing no matter who wins."

What is more, in all but two of the key races, no candidate from either the Socialists, or the opposition New Democracy party secured more than the minimum 50% of the vote required, which means they face run-off elections next Sunday.

And according to projections by two private Greek television stations, the Socialists now command only a two- to three-percentage-point edge over New Democracy, sharply down from their winning 10-percentage-point margin in national polls last October.

Opposition leader Antonis Samaras said the message of the local elections would be determined in next Sunday's run-off, adding that the government had failed to get "the blank check" it wanted from the voters.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704580304575600051983397766.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hpp_MIDDLETopStories

This big story this week plays out in Seoul, this Thursday and Friday. Ironically starting on the 92^nd anniversary of the end of the disaster of World War One. Then 3 great empires fell, another went bankrupt but couldn’t bring itself to admit it, and the French Republic and Belgian Empire went into terminal decline. An unready America gave away its winning leadership role and went off into isolation and prohibition. After World War Two, America willingly took on its global leadership role, as a wrecked Europe feared it was about to get swallowed by Stalin’s evil Empire. All too soon, China was swallowed by 25 years of murderous communism. We can only hope that at this coming meeting, someone has a sense of history. Setting off a trade war to match the continuing currency war, risks setting off a return to something closer to the 1930s.

"If ever there was an area in which to do the exact opposite of that which government and the media urge you to do, that area is the purchasing of gold."

Robert Ringer

At the Comex silver depositories Friday, final figures were: Registered 51.30 Moz, Eligible 58.88 Moz, Total 110.18 Moz.

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Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

No crooks today, the U-turn by the World Bank is too significant.

"All of the government's monetary, economic and political power, as well as its extensive propaganda machinery, will be enlisted in a constant battle to drive down the price of gold - but in the absence of any fundamental change in the nation's monetary, fiscal, and economic direction, simply regard any major retreat in the price of gold as an unexpected buying opportunity."

Irwin A. Schiff

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October:

DJIA: +204 Down. NASDAQ: +289 Down. SP500: +196 Down.

The bull market (or bear market rally) that commenced on Nasdaq on 30/4/09 at 1717 has ended. (30/5/09 SP 500 at 919, 30/5/09 DJIA 8500.) While the indicators can flip flop at market turns, this action is rare on the slow monthly indicators. October is the fifth down month in a row.

Technorati Tags: Gold,gold,World Bank suggest gold,G-20 turmoil,US austerity coming,AAron's golden calf,silver manipulation ending,global cooling,missing sunpots,REEs,HREs,renewable energy

A Black Swan Flies In.

Baltic Dry Index. 2478 +26

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $3,000.

"Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and start slitting throats."

H.L Mencken

For more on the black swan scroll down to Crooks and Scoundrel’s Corner. Today we open with the IMF hinting that Club Med needs to devalue if it’s going to avoid the death spiral. But Club Med can’t devalue since they’re trapped in the Germanic Euro, having entered the currency union at the wrong exchange rate. Want to bet that this all goes disastrously wrong in the year ahead. I’ll stick with gold and silver. It’s looking more and more like the fiat Euro experiment is doomed.

Money has no country.

Jules Bertillon. A House of All Nations. 1938. Christina Stead.

IMF admits that the West is stuck in near depression

If you strip away the political correctness, Chapter Three of the IMF's World Economic Outlook more or less condemns Southern Europe to death by slow suffocation and leaves little doubt that fiscal tightening will trap North Europe, Britain and America in slump for a long time.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Published: 8:00PM BST 03 Oct 2010

The IMF report – "Will It Hurt? Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation" – implicitly argues that austerity will do more damage than so far admitted.

Normally, tightening of 1pc of GDP in one country leads to a 0.5pc loss of growth after two years. It is another story when half the globe is in trouble and tightening in lockstep. Lost growth would be double if interest rates are already zero, and if everybody cuts spending at once.

"Not all countries can reduce the value of their currency and increase net exports at the same time," it said. Nobel economist Joe Stiglitz goes further, warning that damn may break altogether in parts of Europe, setting off a "death spiral".

The Fund said damage also doubles for states that cannot cut rates or devalue – think Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and Italy, all trapped in EMU at overvalued exchange rates.

"A fall in the value of the currency plays a key role in softening the impact. The result is consistent with standard Mundell-Fleming theory that fiscal multipliers are larger in economies with fixed exchange rate regimes." Exactly.

Let us avoid the crude claim that spending cuts in a slump are wicked or self-defeating. Britain did exactly that after leaving the Gold Standard in 1931, and the ERM in 1992, both times with success. A liberated Bank of England was able to cut interest rates. Sterling fell. The key point is whether you can offset the budget cuts.

But by the same token, it is fallacious to cite the austerity cures of Canada, and Scandinavia in the 1990s – as the European Central Bank does – as evidence that budget cuts pave the way for recovery. These countries were able export to a booming world. They could lower interest rates, and were small enough to carry out `beggar-thy-neighbour' devaluations without attracting much notice. We were not then in our New World Order of "currency wars".

Be that as it may, it is clear that Southern Europe will not recover for a long time. Portuguese premier Jose Socrates has just unveiled his latest austerity package. He has capitulated on wage cuts. There will be a rise in VAT from 21pc to 23pc, and a freeze in pensions and projects. The trade unions have called a general strike for next month.

Mr Socrates has already lost his socialist majority, leaking part of his base to the hard-Left Bloco. He must rely on conservative acquiescence – not yet forthcoming. Citigroup said the fiscal squeeze will be 3pc of GDP next year. So under the IMF's schema, this implies a 3pc loss in growth. Since there wasn't any growth to speak off, this means contraction.

More.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8039789/IMF-admits-that-the-West-is-stuck-in-near-depression.html

In a sign of total desperation at the ineffectiveness of current policy, Japan has gone from virtual zero interest rates to actual zero interest rates. Somehow I doubt it’s going to make any difference. Nor will monetizing another 5 trillion yen make much of a difference, other than to weaken the yen in a competitive devaluation against China and America. As the great Nixonian error of fiat money starts to collapse, ever more desperate schemes will now get tried.

"Consistency is the last refuge of the unimaginative."

Oscar Wilde

Bank of Japan Cuts Rates to as Low as Zero Percent

By HIROKO TABUCHI Published: October 5, 2010

TOKYO — In a surprise move, Japan’s central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate to a range of 0 percent to 0.1 percent Tuesday, a tiny change from its previous target of 0.1 percent but a symbolic slide into an age of zero interest rates.

The Bank of Japan also said it would set up a temporary 5 trillion yen, or $60 billion, fund to buy Japanese government bonds, commercial paper and other asset-backed securities amid concerns over weakening growth in the world’s third-largest economy.

With the interest rate cut, the central bank effectively reintroduces a zero-interest rate policy for the first time since July 2006. The decision underscores concerns that a strong yen and persistent deflation threaten the country’s fragile economic recovery.

The dollar rose against the yen on the announcement, climbing 0.7 percent on the day to 83.90 yen from about 83.55 yen before the decision.

The unanimous vote to lower the key interest rate came after a two-day meeting of the central bank’s nine-member policy board. The Bank of Japan had been under increasing pressure from the government to take drastic steps to shore up the economy.

More.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/06/business/global/06yen.html?hp

In Greece it’s more of the same for next year, too. In a daring move for the tax and work shy Greeks, since China is going to buy up all of their new debt, wages won’t be cut any more, while taxes will be raised on the people wh never pay them! If China does in fact buy up Greek debt, at some point ahead China is going to take a loss when Greece wises up and leaves the Germanic Euro.

People who don't like scandals shouldn't be in finance.

Mouradzian. A House of All Nations. 1938. Christina Stead.

Greece Presents Austerity Budget for 2011

By NIKI KITSANTONIS and DAVID JOLLY Published: October 4, 2010

ATHENS — The Greek government, which this year has come under the tutelage of its euro-zone partners and the International Monetary Fund after it reached the brink of default, on Monday presented a draft austerity budget for 2011 that promised to raise more tax revenue while ending public-sector salary cuts.

According to the draft submitted to Parliament by Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou, the state aims to raise €5 billion, or $6.8 billion, from new tax measures, while it will cut spending by €1.5 billion.

Greece’s borrowing costs soared and the foundations of the euro were shaken after the revelation last October that the country had for years greatly understated the degree of its indebtedness. The Greek crisis in May led the I.M.F. and European officials to create a rescue fund valued at around €750 billion to help euro-zone members restructure their finances.

---- His 2011 plan includes a one-time tax on companies and an increase in the midrange value-added tax to 13 percent from 11 percent. It also includes the tax amnesty announced last month by Prime Minister George Papandreou that is meant to raise hundreds of millions of euros by encouraging citizens and businesses to settle 2.5 million unaudited tax filings stretching back over a decade. Debts would be paid off in installments in exchange for exemption from prosecution.

Officials have instituted a wave of tax increases over the past few months — including a four percentage point increase in the top value-added tax, to 23 percent — and a 20 percent cut to public-sector wages.

Mr. Papaconstantinou told the daily newspaper To Vima in an interview published Sunday that there would be no cuts to wages next year. Instead, he is focusing on raising revenue, an area in which Greece, with a reputation for tax evasion, has traditionally struggled.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/05/business/global/05drachma.html?ref=business

Next, the gloves come off in Ireland. We can expect to a whole lot more of this as Ireland struggles to stave of sovereign default. Imagine, bondholders being asked to share in the austerity! God will fall out of heaven first!!

"For money, people fight and devour one another like spiders in a pot."

Honore de Balzac.

Roman Abramovich's Millhouse warns Ireland of legal action over Irish Nationwide bail-out

Millhouse, Roman Abramovich's asset management company, has lashed out at the Irish government and given warning of “huge reputation loss” and possible legal action if it continues to push it to foot part of the bill to bail out Irish Nationwide Building Society

By Simon Shuster in Moscow Published: 6:00AM BST 05 Oct 2010

The warning comes after Brian Lenihan, the Irish finance minister, said that subordinated bondholders of two state-controlled Irish lenders – Irish Nationwide Building Society, or INBS, and Anglo Irish Bank – should make a “significant contribution toward meeting the costs” of a planned government bailout.

Mr Abramovich’s asset management company, Millhouse LLC, would be among the first in line to shoulder INBS’s burden if Mr Lenihan gets his way.

In August 2009, Millhouse bought an unspecified amount of the £126m in subordinated bonds issued by INBS. The government guarantee on those bonds ran out October 1.

In a statement emailed to The Daily Telegraph, a spokesman for Mr Abramovich, the billionaire owner of Chelsea football club, said in Moscow that Millhouse was “extremely concerned” by the recent collapse in the value of these bonds, adding that Mr Lenihan’s statement “did not help the situation”.

“We bought [the bonds] because the Irish Government …promised to guarantee these bonds and promised to have a strategy for the bank. A year later, there is no guarantee and no strategy. We now believe that we have been misled and deceived,” the statement said.

Millhouse also complained of discrimination, claiming that other investors in INBS received regular updates on the bank’s performance, while Millhouse did not hear anything from management.

Although Millhouse has denied reports that it was planning to take its complaints to court, the statement concluded that it was “fully prepared to vigorously defend our position using all possible legal avenues”.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/8042534/Roman-Abramovichs-Millhouse-warns-Ireland-of-legal-action-over-Irish-Nationwide-bail-out.html

"Everything has been thought of before, but the problem is to think of it again."

Goethe

At the Comex silver depositories Monday, final figures were: Registered 52.26 Moz, Eligible 58.82 Moz, Total 111.08 Moz.

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Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, the NY Time’s best reporter on the growing chaos in US real estate. Chaos, that just might be the black swan arriving that crashes the mortgage backed securities sector and sets off the “next Lehman”. With title insurance companies now refusing to insure property transferring under foreclosure sales due to clouded ownership, foreclosure sales have come to a sudden halt. But the issue is far bigger than just foreclosures. With ownership clouded at best, lost or missing at worst, who is left to sign off transfer of ownership when a performing mortgage gets paid off? By slicing and dicing and pooling mortgages, for more than a decade, a decade’s worth of US properties is now clouded. A decade’s worth of US properties looks like becoming unsalable, or at best only salable with a big discount or an indemnity to the purchaser.

“You can observe a lot by just watching".

Yogi Berra

Flawed Paperwork Aggravates a Foreclosure Crisis

By GRETCHEN MORGENSON Published: October 3, 2010

As some of the nation’s largest lenders have conceded that their foreclosure procedures might have been improperly handled, lawsuits have revealed myriad missteps in crucial documents.

The flawed practices that GMAC Mortgage, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America have recently begun investigating are so prevalent, lawyers and legal experts say, that additional lenders and loan servicers are likely to halt foreclosure proceedings and may have to reconsider past evictions.

Problems emerging in courts across the nation are varied but all involve documents that must be submitted before foreclosures can proceed legally. Homeowners, lawyers and analysts have been citing such problems for the last few years, but it appears to have reached such intensity recently that banks are beginning to re-examine whether all of the foreclosure papers were prepared properly.

In some cases, documents have been signed by employees who say they have not verified crucial information like amounts owed by borrowers. Other problems involve questionable legal notarization of documents, in which, for example, the notarizations predate the actual preparation of documents — suggesting that signatures were never actually reviewed by a notary.

Other problems occurred when notarizations took place so far from where the documents were signed that it was highly unlikely that the notaries witnessed the signings, as the law requires.

On still other important documents, a single official’s name is signed in such radically different ways that some appear to be forgeries. Additional problems have emerged when multiple banks have all argued that they have the right to foreclose on the same property, a result of a murky trail of documentation and ownership.

---- Attorneys general in at least six states, including Massachusetts, Iowa, Florida and Illinois, are investigating improper foreclosure practices. Last week, Jennifer Brunner, the secretary of state of Ohio, referred examples of what her office considers possible notary abuse by Chase Home Mortgage to federal prosecutors for investigation.

The implications are not yet clear for borrowers who have been evicted from their homes as a result of improper filings. But legal experts say that courts may impose sanctions on lenders or their representatives or may force banks to pay borrowers’ legal costs in these cases.

Judges may dismiss the foreclosures altogether, barring lenders from refiling and awarding the home to the borrower. That would create a loss for the lender or investor holding the note underlying the property. Almost certainly, lawyers say, lawsuits on behalf of borrowers will multiply.

In Florida, problems with foreclosure cases are especially acute. A recent sample of foreclosure cases in the 12th Judicial Circuit of Florida showed that 20 percent of those set for summary judgment involved deficient documents, according to chief judge Lee E. Haworth.

More.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/04/business/04mortgage.html?ref=gretchen_morgenson

If all the rich men in the world divided up their money amongst themselves, there wouldn't be enough to go round.

Jules Bertillon. A House of All Nations. 1938. Christina Stead.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September:

DJIA: +227 Down. NASDAQ: +321 Down. SP500: +221 Down.

The bull market (or bear market rally) that commenced on Nasdaq on 30/4/09 at 1717 has ended. (30/5/09 SP 500 at 919, 30/5/09 DJIA 8500.) While the indicators can flip flop at market turns, this action is rare on the slow monthly indicators. September is the fourth down month in a row.

Technorati Tags: Black swan,IMF warning,depression,Japan ZIRP,Ireland bondholders,US real estate chaos,global cooling,REEs,HREs

Get Gold!

Baltic Dry Index. 2737 -103

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $3,000.

“Fiat money has no place to go but gold”

Alan Greenspan. September 15, 2010

In Washington, it’s open season on China. Yesterday it was the turn of tax challenged Treasury Secretary Geithner. How much is mere pandering rhetoric and how much is real? China would dearly like to know, as I suspect would America’s Tea Party voters. One way or another, China is heading for import tariffs in America. The only question seems to be, will they come before November’s US election or will they come after, when a very different Congress is likely to be returned, comprised in very large measure of hard headed followers of a much more conservative agenda. Last time something like this happened, Iran was watching the arrival of a no nonsense Ronald Reagan, and wisely decided to release the US hostages rather than risk a war. This time around, it’s China in the role of Iran, and there aren’t any hostages thankfully, just China manipulating its currency via a dirty float. But I doubt that will make very much difference. From London, it looks to me, like only a serious change of policy in Beijing can change the outcome. From London, it seems to me, China is digging in rather than looking to change its policy.

"We need only take our heads out of the sand to see clearly that interventionism not only has failed to provide the promised something-for-nothing, but has led to all sorts of undesirable consequences. Indeed, many are just beginning to realize that we are moving towards disaster even though we have been on a wrong heading for decades."

Leonard Read

US-China clash over yuan escalates, risking superpower stand-off

US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has issued his harshest attack to date on China’s currency policy, the latest move in an escalating superpower clash across the gamut of commercial and strategic relations.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Published: 7:09PM BST 16 Sep 2010

“We are very concerned about the negative impact of (China’s) policies on our economic interests,” he told a Congressional hearing on Beijing’s use of exchange intervention for trade advantage.

“The pace of appreciation has been to slow. The undervalued renminbi helps China’s export sector. It encourages out-sourcing of production and jobs from the United States. By continuing a rigid exchange rate, China is impeding the adjustments needed to secure sustainable global growth,” he said.

The tough talk comes amid concerns that the global currency order is unravelling, with countries breaking ranks in a `beggar-thy-neigbour’ use of 1930s-style devaluation to help exporters and shore up their economies.

Japan became the latest country to intervene this week, carrying out massive dollar and euro purchases to weaken the yen. Sander Levin, chair of the US House Ways and Means Committee, called the move “deeply disturbing”, chiefly because it muddies the political water and lets China off the hook.

Mr Geithner’s ire follows a move by US trade chief Ron Kirk to file two cases against China at the World Trade Organization, alleging bias against US steel producers and credit card companies. Mr Kirk said he was “fighting for the American jobs threatened by China’s actions.”

Trade expert Gary Hufbauer from Washington’s Peterson Institute said the tensions risk triggering a dangerous clash.” The US and China are now adversaries, not enemies, but if the Obama administration pushes this trade agenda the way it is now doing, we will end up antagonists,” he said.

Professor Hufbauer said the White House has lost faith in “quiet diplomacy”, irked that the yuan has hardly moved since Beijing ended the dollar peg in June. This is spiced by populist fever before the mid-term elections in November.

“The US trade deficit with China is widening, yet the Chinese are still accumulating reserves at remarkable rate, beyond their needs. They know that growth in China’s coastal provinces is their passport to political stability, but this is incompatible with US political stability,” he said.

“We have grievances piling up in tyres, aluminium, paper, and steel, and it has all come to a head. Of course, China is getting an unfair share of the blame from this anti-globalisation mood on Capitol Hill. The truth is that when the US curbed imports of Chinese tyres, sales went to Brazil and Mexico instead, not to US producers,” he said.

Jiang Yu from China’s foreign ministry echoed the point. “Appreciation of the renminbi will not resolve the deficit between the US and China and will not resolve US domestic unemployment. Pressure will not only fail to solve the problems; it could have the opposite effect,” she said..

Views are clearly hardening on both sides. Over 140 members of Congress have so far backed the Ryan-Murphy bill enforcing sanctions against China for currency abuse, siding with US domestic industry and trade unions against US multinationals with plant in China.

-----Japan’s leaders say privately that China’s actions have begun to threaten their country’s industrial base, forcing Tokyo to respond with its own solo intervention or stand by as its exporters are asphyxiated and its economy tips into a deflationary spiral.

The twist is that Japan itself has a large trade surplus -- though for different reasons -- so it is in effect passing the unwanted parcel to the US and Europe rather than allowing the global system to come back into equilibrium.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8007629/US-China-clash-over-yuan-escalates-risking-superpower-stand-off.html

Unsurprisingly, edgy holders of dollars are increasingly hedging their dollar exposure with gold. One way or another a weaker dollar lies ahead. Central banksters or not, gold is resuming its monetary role as a store of value. All fiat money eventually returns to intrinsic value, to misquote Voltaire. When the US Treasury bubble eventually meets up with its pin, the run on gold and silver is likely to be immense. Gold moving hundreds of dollars in a day. Think 1979-80. If the Fed and the BOE have a plan to bail out the gold and silver shorts, it isn’t immediately apparent to me. When the US treasury bubble eventually bursts, it seems to me very likely to blow up the Great Nixonian Error of fiat currency. With a Sarah Palin presidency now no longer out of the question, and a adversarial relationship with China developing, who wouldn’t want to hedge off some fiat currency risk while the opportunity is still there.

"The history of fiat money is little more than a register of monetary follies and inflations. Our present age merely affords another entry in this dismal register."

Hans F. Sennholz

Gold hits an all-time high

Gold mining shares peppered the blue-chip leaderboard as the price of the precious metal hit an all-time high.

Ben Harrington Published: 6:27PM BST 14 Sep 2010

Gold rose to $1269 an ounce, with dealers noting a growing number of investors have been buying the precious metal in recent weeks. Some traders reckon investors have almost replaced industry users as the main buyers of gold.

As central banks have cut interest rates to the bone to battle recession and high unemployment, investors are using gold as a hedge against the threat of inflation or even hyper-inflation.

Philip Klapwijk, chairman of metals consultancy GFMS, also pointed out that: "The United States has so far managed to side-step the sovereign debt crisis. But that could change in the future and that would undermine the dollar and boost gold."

The dollar fell to a 15-year low against the yen and a nine-month low against the Swiss franc, which boosted the price of gold further.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/marketreport/8002758/Gold-hits-an-all-time-high.html

Greenspan’s Warning on Gold

Editorial of The New York Sun September 15, 2010

----Mr. Greenspan replied that he’d thought a lot about gold prices over the years and decided the supply and demand explanations treating gold like other commodities “simply don’t pan out,” as Mr. Malpass characterized Mr. Greenspan. “He’d concluded that gold is simply different,” Mr. Malpass wrote. At one point Mr. Greenspan spoke of how, during World War II, the Allies going into North Africa found gold was insisted on in the payment of bribes.* Said the former Fed chairman: “If all currencies are moving up or down together, the question is: relative to what? Gold is the canary in the coal mine. It signals problems with respect to currency markets. Central banks should pay attention to it.”

To which, forgive us, one can only say, “Now he tells us.” The fact is that if Mr. Greenspan governed the Fed with an eye on gold, it wasn’t a particularly steady eye. He might argue that when he left the chairmanship of the Fed, in January 2006, he left a dollar worth a 400^th of an ounce of gold, slightly more valuable than the 461^st of an ounce of gold that it was worth when he came in nearly 20 years before. But in the first five years of the 21^st century, when he was in the last quarter of his years as chairman, the value of the dollar started its long collapse, plunging from the 282^nd of an ounce of gold that it was worth on January 4, 2000. In the years since, it has cratered to record lows once imagined only by such sages as Ron Paul.

http://www.nysun.com/editorials/greenspans-warning-on-gold/87080

In UK news, the Humpty Dumpty governing coalition just got some very bad news. Consumers are already cutting back in anticipation of the coming austerity hard times. Sterling is now a very risky currency to hold. I suspect that Humpty won’t last out the coming winter.

September 17^th – 99 days to Christmas.

Recovery hopes falter as retail sales disappoint

Britain's recovery hopes have suffered a sharp setback after surprisingly weak retail sales figures provided damning evidence that consumers are tightening their belts ahead of the Government's austerity measures.

By Philip Aldrick and James Hall Published: 10:41PM BST 16 Sep 2010

A collapse in high street sales for August and stark warnings from some of the nation's leading retailers sparked fresh talk of a double-dip recession.

"The unexpected fall is a nasty shock and deals a significant blow to growth hopes," said Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight.

"It will likely fuel fears of a double-dip, given the importance of consumer spending to the economy."

Retail sales volumes shrank 0.5pc last month – against forecasts of 0.2pc growth – on the back of fewer purchases of food, fuel, clothes and household goods, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). It was the first fall in sales since January.

July's figures were also revised down from growth of 1.2pc to 0.8pc.

Retail chiefs added to rising concerns as they warned the weak figures could worsen following January's VAT increase from 17.5pc to 20pc and the Government's austerity package.

----The average UK consumer is now expected to be a total of £2,240 out of pocket over the next five years because of the effects of Government policies, according to a report on household budgets from Verdict Research and retail consultancy PRGX.

-----The poor ONS data was mirrored by figures from Barclaycard, which found that spending on debit and credit cards slid 1.9pc in August against the previous month.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/8007686/Recovery-hopes-falter-as-retail-sales-disappoint.html

"It is the greenback which is unstable, and not the bullion."

Dr. Franz Pick

At the Comex silver depositories Thursday, final figures were: Registered 53.44 Moz, Eligible 58.30 Moz, Total 111.74 Moz.

+++++

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

No crooks today, just more on China and the unlevel playing field in international trade. Below, the future is solar and the future is China. Or is it?

In contrast to wind turbines, there remains considerable room for advances in the efficiency of solar power and while this presents an opportunity to reduce costs further, it poses dilemmas for existing solar module manufacturers, particularly given the large investments which have already been made and the potential costs incurred in retooling existing factories to produce radically different products. A clear example is the recent breakthrough at the University of Stanford, where researchers have discovered that cesium-coated gallium nitride is capable of converting the energy from the light and heat of the Sun into electricity, paving the way for solar panels with efficiencies in the 55-60% range

Solarfun Proves Why Energy Investors Like Cheap, Chinese Panels

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Solarfun Power Holdings Co. is proving that cheaper, Chinese goods branded with English- sounding names can make renewable-energy investors rich.

The Chinese company makes solar panels that cost 35 percent less than Germany’s Schott AG and is headed to double sales in 2010. Its shares jumped 73 percent this quarter and lead Chinese stocks that are set to take the top five slots on the Bloomberg Global Leaders Solar Index for the first time in five quarters.

Solarfun, beating 499 of the 500 members in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, and Chinese makers of raw materials for panels like LDK Solar Co. gained an edge over German and U.S. rivals in mid-year. That’s when new energy and fiscal policies in Europe drove solar park developers to seek lower-cost panels to protect profit. Even after the gains, the Chinese stocks remain less expensive than Western counterparts in price-earnings terms.

“The Chinese are the ones to beat,” said Olaf Koester, head of renewable energy at VCH Investment Group, which oversees about 130 million euros ($165 million) including Chinese panel maker Trina Solar Ltd., up 61 percent this quarter. Their panels, or modules, are about 20 percent cheaper on average than those from German makers such as Conergy AG or Schott, he said in a telephone interview from his office in Frankfurt.

China’s manufacturers of panels and the polysilicon main ingredient have benefited from more than $20 billion in government loans this year while Western companies mainly seek private financing.

“In the long-term, the Chinese will probably be the winners,” said James Britland, an analyst at Allianz RCM which oversees about $2 billion in assets, including Asian polysilicon producers. “The real driver is their lower pricing.”

Price-Earnings Discount

The five best performers on the 38-member Bloomberg solar index include China’s JA Solar Holdings Co. and Renesola Ltd. The group trades at an average 8.3 times expected 2010 earnings. That’s below the index average of 29 times earnings and the 27 times earnings ratio of online travel agency Priceline.com Inc., the best-performing S&P 500 stock in the quarter, up 88 percent.

The Chinese manufacturers are riding the crest of a doubling of worldwide panel orders this year, having curbed production costs while improving quality to gain market share, said Martin Simonek, an analyst in London at Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

A Solarfun polycrystalline panel with a 195-watt capacity costs 396.27 euros compared with 610.47 euros for a similar module made by Schott, including taxes, according to the Solar Fachhandel website that sells solar-power generating products.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=ahlJwzZr8Ano

“There is a tide in the affairs of men, Which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune. Omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat. And we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures.”

Wm. Shakespeare

Another weekend, and tiny Bermuda is preparing for hurricane Igor, while Mexico is preparing for hurricane Karl. Igor is forecast to brush by Bermuda as hurricane two, Karl is expected to hit Mexico as a stronger hurricane level 3 storm. Unfortunately Karl is likely to cause major flooding and this is all too likely to become a major story over the weekend. Here, our weather is turning autumnal. The leaves are turning colour and dropping, the elderberries, sloes and the last of the blackberries are in season. The chestnut trees have about another month to go. Check with the blog for the weekend update. Have a great and enjoyable weekend everyone.

"Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring classes of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money."

Daniel Webster

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August:

DJIA: +243 Down. NASDAQ: +366 Down. SP500: +243 Down.

The bull market (or bear market rally) that commenced on Nasdaq on 30/4/09 at 1717 has ended. (30/5/09 SP 500 at 919, 30/5/09 DJIA 8500.) While the indicators can flip flop at market turns, this action is rare on the slow monthly indicators. August is the third down month in a row and “crash season” approaches.

Technorati Tags: Gold,Greenspan,China,Yuan,UK retail sales slump,solar panels from China,hurricanes,global cooling

Battle of Britain Wednesday.

Baltic Dry Index. 2940 -36

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $3,000.

Date: 15th September 1940

• Weather: Fair with some cloud patches. Fine during the evening.
• Day: Heavy attacks on London, broken up by Fighter Command. Highest German losses since 18 August [185 claimed by the RAF] force a serious rethink by the German High Command.
• Night: Heavy damage to London.

Enemy action by day

The enemy delivered two major attacks on London during the day. Later smaller formations attacked both Portland and targets in the Southampton area.

Our fighters destroyed 176 enemy aircraft (124 bombers and 53 fighters) plus 41 probable and 72 damaged.

AA destroyed 7 enemy aircraft plus 4 probable.

Our casualties are 25 aircraft and 13 pilots killed or missing

First Major Attack

At 1100 hours enemy aircraft began to mass in the Calais/Boulogne area and at 1130 hours the leading wave of about 100 aircraft crossed the coast between Dover and Dungeness, followed by a second wave of 150 aircraft. Objectives appeared to be in the London district.

No 11 Group sent up 16 Squadrons to meet the attack, and No 12 Group provided 5 Squadrons to patrol Debden and Hornchurch.

Approximately 100 enemy aircraft succeeded in reaching Central London.

More.

http://www.raf.mod.uk/Bob1940/september15.html

Seventy years ago today, Great Britain and the Empire won the second World War. Nobody knew it at the time. After two months of trying to destroy the Royal Air Force to allow for an invasion that wouldn’t turn into a German Dunkirk, on Sunday September 15^th 1940, in the blue skies over London and southeast England, German planes were shot out of the sky all day and into the night. The R.A.F. far from being beaten was getting stronger. The Luftwaffe took its largest loss of the blitz. Though the figures were inflated for propaganda purposes, the actual 60 aircrew losses and another 100 crippled planes and crews were just too much for the Luftwaffe to carry on taking. They would never attack in such numbers in daylight again. Great Britain would not be forced out of the war into an ignominious peace, leaving Europe to Hitler’s criminality. Though fighting on alone for another 10 months until the Nazis insanely attacked Russia, seventy years ago today, God and the RAF decided the fate of Europe. By January 1942, the British Empire was joined by Russia and America in starting the decline of Hitlerism. An unsung anniversary that should be celebrated in Europe with a continent sized holiday.

We open this morning with the already black sky in China getting darker. Uncle Sam’s largest creditor is tired of being hustled by its dead-beat debtor. Rather like the Germans getting tough with dead-beat Greeks, many in China think it’s time to do a little hustling back themselves. Below, the Telegraph covers the dispute between the two giants who really can tip the world into a 1930s style depression. Stay long precious metals in case one or both lose the plot. A 1930s style depression will end the fiat currency scam for all time. “The next Lehman’s” will appear in droves.

"I was alarmed at my doctor's report: He said I was a sound as a dollar."

Ronald Reagan.

Chinese think tank warns US it will emerge as loser in trade war

A State Council think-tank in China has warned Washington that the US will come off worst in a trade war if it imposes sanctions against Beijing over the two nations' currency spat.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Published: 6:16PM BST 14 Sep 2010

Ding Yifan, a policy guru at the Development Research Centre, said China could respond by selling holdings of US debt, estimated at over $1.5 trillion (£963bn). This would trigger a rise in US interest rates. His comments at a forum in Beijing follow a string of remarks by Chinese officials questioning US credit-worthiness and the reliability of the dollar.

China's authorities seem split over how to respond to moves on Capitol Hill for legislation to punish Beijing for holding down the yuan. The central bank has ruled out use of its "nuclear weapon", insisting that it would not exploit its $2.45 trillion of foreign reserves for political purposes. "The US Treasury market is a very important market for China," it said.

----- Mr Ding reflects thinking among some in the Poltiburo, who seem convinced that the US is in decline and that China's rise as an exporter of goods and capital give it the upper hand.

"They are utterly wrong," said Gabriel Stein from Lombard Street Research. "The lesson of the 1930s is that surplus countries with structurally weak domestic demand come off worst in a trade war."

He described the implicit threat to sell Treasuries as "empty bluster" because Beijing's purchase of these bonds is a side-effect of its yuan policy. "Bring it on: it will weaken the dollar, which is what the US wants. The interest rate effect can be countered by the Fed."

"Some Chinese officials seem to believe that buying Treasuries underpins US public spending. In fact China's mercantilist policy is forcing the US to run large deficits against its own interest. China should be terrified of a trade war."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/8002719/Chinese-think-tank-warns-US-it-will-emerge-as-loser-in-trade-war.html

We end today’s travel shortened update, with a repeat of the great Jeremy Grantham’s summer change of heart. He joined the deflationist camp to ride out the next several months. Mid September, and with austerity just about to hit in the UK and increasingly across Europe, and with UK unions now getting bolshie and threatening the weak coalition government with a return to the chaos of the Labour Government 1970s, and tax increases coming next year in the UK and America, bad things start to happen from here onwards fast. Stay long precious metals. In the UK, at least, a weak coalition government is already under pressure from Liberal Democrat MP’s still believing in a free lunch. My guess is that if the unions carry out their threats of coordinated strike action this winter, the UK’s weak government will be toppled. Of course, that won’t do anything about making the UK’s position any better. Exactly the opposite, the unions will be aggravating the UK’s already serious economic problems, and even higher unemployment is the likely outcome. An even weaker Sterling the long term result.

"The leaders of the French Revolution excited the poor against the rich; this made the rich poor, but it never made the poor rich."

Fisher Ames, 1758-1808.

Well, I, for one, am more or less willing to throw in the towel on behalf of Inflation. For the near future at least, his adversary in the blue trunks, Deflation, has won on points. Even if we get intermittently rising commodity prices, which seems quite likely, the downward pressure on prices from weak wages and weak demand seems to me now to be much the larger factor. Even three months ago, I was studiously trying to stay neutral on the “flation” issue, as my colleague Ben Inker calls it. I, like many, was mesmerized by the potential for money supply to increase dramatically, given the floods of government debt used in the bailout. But now, better late than never, I am willing to take sides: with weak loan supply and fairly weak loan demand, the velocity of money has slowed, and inflation seems a distant prospect. Suddenly (for me), it is fairly clear that a weak economy and declining or flat prices are the prospect for the immediate future.

Jeremy Grantham.

http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/JGLetter_SummerEssays_2Q10.pdf

At the Comex silver depositories Tuesday, final figures were: Registered 53.97 Moz, Eligible 57.51 Moz, Total 111.48 Moz.

+++++

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, it’s the turn of the 3 whitewash inquiries into the spurious science that pours out of the dodgy scientists at the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit. Below, the loony leftist Guardian, that’s bought into the “man-made global warming from CO2” nonsense, hook line and sinker, covers the story. Even they seem to have finally noticed that they were scammed.

"In the republic of mediocrity, genius is dangerous."

Robert G. Ingersoll

'Climategate' inquiries were 'highly defective', report for sceptic thinktank rules

Review for Lord Lawson's sceptic thinktank says none of the three inquiries into the hacked climate emails affair was objective or comprehensive

Tuesday 14 September 2010 17.32 BST

None of the three official inquiries into the illegal release of climate emails from the University of East Anglia (UEA) showed a "serious concern for the truth", according to a report commissioned by Lord Lawson's sceptical thinktank.

The report, which has been criticised for "bias", contends that none of the inquiries were objective and comprehensive and that public confidence in climate science would not be restored until a thorough investigation is carried out.

Lord Lawson called the three official inquiries, one by the House of Commons science and technology select committee and two commissioned by the university, "highly defective". But he has consistently refused to reveal the identities of the donors behind the secretive Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) which paid for the report.

The inquiry's author, Andrew Montford, criticised the previous inquiries for not investigating the most serious allegations and for failing to ask key questions. For example, Prof Phil Jones, the head of UEA's climatic research unit, had been criticised for writing emails about deleting emails that were apparently the subject of a freedom of information act (FoI) request. He has denied deleting any emails to avoid FoI requests, but the main inquiry into the emails conducted by Sir Muir Russell never asked him or any of the other scientists about this.

Montford, who runs the Bishop Hill climate sceptic blog, also criticised the MPs' inquiry and a third review led by Lord Oxburgh, for failing to address an allegation of fraud relating to a paper that Jones published in 1990.

---- More generally, Montford criticised the inquiries for a lack of impartiality. The report said there had been a "failure to ensure balance and independence", suggesting CRU members and critics had been treated differently. "While CRU justifications and explanations were willingly accepted without any serious probing, critics were denied adequate opportunity to respond and to counter demonstrably inaccurate claims," it said.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/sep/14/climategate-inquiries-lawson-report

"Rarely have so many people been so wrong about so much."

Richard M. Nixon

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August:

DJIA: +243 Down. NASDAQ: +366 Down. SP500: +243 Down.

The bull market (or bear market rally) that commenced on Nasdaq on 30/4/09 at 1717 has ended. (30/5/09 SP 500 at 919, 30/5/09 DJIA 8500.) While the indicators can flip flop at market turns, this action is rare on the slow monthly indicators. August is the third down month in a row and “crash season” approaches.

Technorati Tags: Battle of Britain,China v America,deflation,dodgy climate science,global cooling,sunspots,gold and silver.,REES,HREs

Norway Rolls the Dice.

Baltic Dry Index. 2975 +57

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $3,000.

Fresh food only began appearing on dinner tables in the 1700s, with the advent of the cooking stove - and stoves were not for everyone until the beginning of this century.

Norway’s Foods.

We open this morning with Norway’s sovereign wealth fund rolling the dice with purchases of the EU’s increasingly dodgy Club Med debt. Below, Bloomberg covers Norway’s audacious purchase of Greek government debt. Depending on how much of the iffy paper they bought, Norway might now have more to lose in Greece than the tax and work shy Greeks themselves. In this iteration of Euro madness, Greeks dodge taxes and bury their money in Switzerland and Cyprus and just about any other place but Greece. Norwegian’s work hard and pile up dollars in the country’s sovereign wealth fund, where the gamblers, sorry managers, set off to chase yield in what looks to me like a game of Russian roulette with the European Central Bank. Dare the ECB now allow Greece to default and restructure its debt, after brave Norway has just stepped in to help the ECB prop up the Greeks? To me in far away London, it looks like the Greeks were just dealt a get out of austerity jail card by Norway. Does Norway’s SWF have any back door guarantee from the ECB?

"Economics is an entire scientific discipline of not knowing what you're talking about."

P. J. O Rourke.

Norway Buys Greek Debt as Sovereign Wealth Fund Sees No Default

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Norway, which has amassed the world’s second-biggest sovereign wealth fund, says Greece won’t default on its debts.

The Nordic nation’s $450 billion Government Pension Fund Global has stocked up on Greek debt, as well as bonds of Spain, Italy and Portugal. Finance Minister Sigbjoern Johnsen says he backs the strategy, which contributed to a 3.4 percent loss on European fixed income in the second quarter, compared with gains on bonds in Asia and the Americas.

“The point is, do you expect these guys to default?” said Harvinder Sian, senior fixed-income strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, in an interview. “Norway has taken the view that they will not. The Greek holdings are particularly interesting because the consensus in the market is that they will at some point restructure or default.”

Norway says its long-term perspective will protect it from losses. “One could say we are investing for infinity,” Johnsen said in an Aug. 27 interview.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKkAnJYH0Ey4&pos=1

Cod tongues are a popular dish in the northern Norwegian kitchen. They are prepared in many ways - poached, sautéed and fried.

Staying with Europe, if Great Britain can be described as being in Europe, The BOE’s King is getting ready to embark on QE2. Another sneaky stealth devaluation is coming up, as the Pound heads to eventual parity with the dodgy dollar. Look for the UK’s exports and tourism to boom next year. Below, for now the Old bag Lady of Threadneedle Street, seems to be attempting to talk the fiat Pound lower.

Industrialization came to England but has since left.

P. J. O Rourke.

BOE Mulls ‘Second Wave’ of Bond Buying as Rebound Momentum Ebbs

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of England Governor Mervyn King may have to embark on a new round of bond purchases as Britain’s rebound from the worst recession since World War II fades.

Manufacturing, services and construction all faltered in August and the housing market weakened, surveys showed last week. That suggests 200 billion pounds ($309 billion) in bond purchases by the central bank since March 2009 and record-low interest rates may not be enough to keep up the economy’s momentum in the deepest budget squeeze in more than six decades.

“They are more likely to loosen policy further before they tighten it,” Alan Clarke, an economist at BNP Paribas in London, said in a telephone interview. “The danger is acting too late and not soon enough.”

Bank of England policy makers have discussed expanding the bond-purchase policy over the past two months. While officials say it has aided growth by shaving 1 percentage point off government bond yields, it has so far failed to ramp up the flow of credit in the economy.

Clarke predicts the bank’s nine-member Monetary Policy Committee will agree to a “second wave” of stimulus in February. Ross Walker at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc says the chances of it happening in early 2011 are as high as 40 percent. None of the 31 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast an expansion of stimulus after the bank’s policy decision at noon today in London.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPKmcBFClPTQ

Below, what the fraud of bailing out banksters by zero interest rates really mean. In the Great Nixonian Error of fiat currencies, sanity gets turned upside down, gamblers and banksters thrive, and if you’re close enough to the central bank your gambling losses get picked up by the state. Is deficits don’t matter great, or what?

Falling Rates Aid Debtors, but Hamper Savers

By GRAHAM BOWLEY Published: September 8, 2010

Households and corporations alike are refinancing their loans in droves to take advantage of interest rates that seem impossibly cheap. But those same low rates come with a flip side, driving down the income of retirees and others who live off their savings.

It is a side effect of a government policy meant to push down interest rates to a point that businesses and consumers are compelled to borrow and spend again, and yet it is hurting anyone with a savings account.

With the regulated rate that financial institutions can borrow from one another at almost zero, banks are paying savers next to nothing. The average returns on interest-bearing deposit accounts slipped to 0.99 percent in July, according to Market Rates Insight, which tracks bank rates. It is the first time its measure has dipped below 1 percent since the 1950s, when its data begins.

As a result, the amount of money on deposit at United States bank branches fell during the first half of 2010, Market Rates Insight reported this week. It was the first time that had happened in nearly two decades, indicating that people are dissatisfied with how little interest they are earning from their bank accounts.

Perversely, coming after a devastating financial crisis caused by companies and households that feasted on borrowing, ultralow interest rates are penalizing people who have paid down their debt and are now trying to save. It is also punishing those who rely on the proceeds of their nest eggs to pay the bills.

“It’s the whole point of low rates, to entice borrowing and discourage saving, but it means a massive wealth transfer from savers to borrowers,” said Greg McBride, a senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com. “It is a trend on steroids now because interest rates have been cut to the bone.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/09/business/economy/09rates.html

Norwegian Sheephead (smalahove)

Singe the head. Do not flay. Split lengthwise and soak in cold water at least 24 hours, changing the water several times. Make the brine by combining the ingredients and bringing to a boil. Dry the head well, then soak in brine up to 72 hours.

Smoke, the dry head. Simmer the head in water until tender, about 50 minutes. Serve ½ head per person.

At the Comex silver depositories Wednesday, final figures were: Registered 54.12 Moz, Eligible 57.12 Moz, Total 111.24 Moz.

+++++

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, BP says yes we did it, we blew up the Deepwater Horizon, but we had some of the finest most incompetent help money could buy in the oil industry. Below, The Telegraph covers the report and the likely long term results. As soon as the G-6 recover and join Germany and Asia booming, get ready for $200 oil.

I like to do my principal research in bars, where people are more likely to tell the truth or, at least, lie less convincingly than they do in briefings and books.

P. J. O Rourke.

BP oil spill: after the human cost will come the cost of safer oil production

First the nine minutes of terror. The dry technical language and presentation of BP's accident report cannot be allowed to obscure the horror and tragedy of what happened on the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig on the evening of April 20.

By Damian Reece, Head of Business Published: 6:00AM BST 09 Sep 2010

-------But exactly how did a relatively routine procedure for mothballing a well turn into a fatal disaster?

It's clear from BP's version of events, published yesterday, that what could have gone wrong did go wrong. It includes a faulty cement plug, a failed mechanical barrier, misinterpreted pressure tests by workers and unnoticed flows of oil and gas into the pipe. But once a problem had been spotted the response on the rig failed to regain control. Crucial mistakes were made when diverting the lethal fluids into an entirely inadequate mud and gas separating unit on board the rig, instead of overboard, escalating the dangers and allowing gas to envelop the platform. Once escaped onboard, the rig's fire prevention system failed to stop the gas reaching the engines making ignition inevitable.

Finally the blow out preventer, the piece of kit designed to seal the well on the sea floor, failed leading to those weeks of underwater spillage and environmental damage.

But who's to blame?

BP seems to put a tentative hand up in the 200 pages or more of its report but at the same time points a sharp finger very much in the direction of Halliburton and Transocean which operated elements of the rig alongside BP.

If we take the blow out preventer, arguably the most controversial failure allowing such dramatic amounts of oil to gush unfetterred into the Gulf, then it's Transocean which is to blame, according to BP. This report, while significant in improving our understanding of what happened that day, is really BP saying one thing to Haliburton and Transocean, its partners. "If we're going down, you're going down with us."

It is just the first salvo in what will be a long and tortuous legal process as the companies involved argue about how the bill for this disaster will be split.

---- It makes a series of recommendations which BP says it will be adopting. However, it's hard to see how any exploration and production company operating not just in US territory, but across the world, will avoid following suit. The recommendations may be about improving procedures, safety and competence but will be burdensome all the same.

----- While the price of oil will remain determined by many factors, the implementation of new drilling procedures, post Deepwater Horizon, will play a much greater part in applying upward pressure to oil prices.

But it's also entirely plausible that as a result of Deepwater Horizon companies, such as BP, will take a long hard look at the rationale for exploiting such technologically challenging deep water finds as the Gulf of Mexico.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/7990476/BP-oil-spill-after-the-human-cost-will-come-the-cost-of-safer-oil-production.html

"If you imagine the 4,500-bilion-odd years of Earth's history compressed into a normal earthly day, then life begins very early, about 4 A.M., with the rise of the first simple, single-celled organisms, but then advances no further for the next sixteen hours.

----- Humans emerge one minute and seventeen seconds before midnight. The whole of our recorded history, on this scale, would be no more than a few seconds, a single human lifetime barely an instant. Throughout this greatly speeded-up day continents slide about and bang together at a clip that seems positively reckless. Mountains rise and melt away, ocean basins come and go, ice sheets advance and withdraw. And throughout the whole, about three times every minute, somewhere on the planet there is a flash-bulb pop of light marking the impact of a Mansion-sized meteor or one even larger. It's a wonder that anything at all can survive in such a pummeled and unsettled environment. In fact, not many things do for long."

Bill Bryson. A Short History of Nearly Everything

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August:

DJIA: +243 Down. NASDAQ: +366 Down. SP500: +243 Down.

The bull market (or bear market rally) that commenced on Nasdaq on 30/4/09 at 1717 has ended. (30/5/09 SP 500 at 919, 30/5/09 DJIA 8500.) While the indicators can flip flop at market turns, this action is rare on the slow monthly indicators. August is the third down month in a row and “crash season” approaches.

Technorati Tags: Norway,Greek debt,BOE QE2,ZIRP,BP,gold and silver.,global cooling,sunspots,REEs,HREs

A Very Different Century.

Baltic Dry Index. 2741 +28

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $3,000.

In the past decade the United States has dramatically shifted the way in which it wages war – fewer soldiers and more contractors.

Last month, the Congressional Research Service reported that the Department of Defense (DoD) workforce has 19% more contractors (207,600) than uniformed personnel (175,000) in Iraq and Afghanistan, making the wars in these two countries the most outsourced and privatized in U.S. history.

http://www.counterpunch.org/quigley09012010.html

While high frequency trading programs were busy gaming the stock market yesterday, 27 of the last 89 NYSE trading days have been 90%+ up or down by share volume, yesterday’s turn was up, we opted to take a look at our rapidly changing world. Thanks to BP and Greenpeace, the odds are now higher that we will fall behind in finding and developing the replacement oil we need for our modern way of life. Peak oil, thanks to deepwater drilling restrictions and a shaken public confidence in the ability of the behemoth oil companies to safely drill for technologically challenging oil, is now a very likely prospect. Below, Der Spiegel on a surprising twist in Europe. In Germany and Britain at least, peak oil is now scaring the governments. What do they know that we don’t?

'Peak Oil' and the German Government 09/01/2010

Military Study Warns of a Potentially Drastic Oil Crisis

By Stefan Schultz

A study by a German military think tank has analyzed how "peak oil" might change the global economy. The internal draft document -- leaked on the Internet -- shows for the first time how carefully the German government has considered a potential energy crisis.

The term "peak oil" is used by energy experts to refer to a point in time when global oil reserves pass their zenith and production gradually begins to decline. This would result in a permanent supply crisis -- and fear of it can trigger turbulence in commodity markets and on stock exchanges.

The issue is so politically explosive that it's remarkable when an institution like the Bundeswehr, the German military, uses the term "peak oil" at all. But a military study currently circulating on the German blogosphere goes further.

The study is a product of the Future Analysis department of the Bundeswehr Transformation Center, a think tank tasked with fixing a direction for the German military. The team of authors, led by Lieutenant Colonel Thomas Will, uses sometimes-dramatic language to depict the consequences of an irreversible depletion of raw materials. It warns of shifts in the global balance of power, of the formation of new relationships based on interdependency, of a decline in importance of the western industrial nations, of the "total collapse of the markets" and of serious political and economic crises.

The study, whose authenticity was confirmed to SPIEGEL ONLINE by sources in government circles, was not meant for publication. The document is said to be in draft stage and to consist solely of scientific opinion, which has not yet been edited by the Defense Ministry and other government bodies.

The lead author, Will, has declined to comment on the study. It remains doubtful that either the Bundeswehr or the German government would have consented to publish the document in its current form. But the study does show how intensively the German government has engaged with the question of peak oil.

Parallels to activities in the UK

The leak has parallels with recent reports from the UK. Only last week the Guardian newspaper reported that the British Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) is keeping documents secret which show the UK government is far more concerned about a supply crisis than it cares to admit.

More.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,715138,00.html#ref=nlint

If peak oil is the problem, renewable energy is the solution, and with it e-mobility via electric bikes, scooters, cars, vans and trucks. I write regularly on the subject over at the rare metal blog, (http://www.raremetalblog.com/) where many better writers than me cover the subject in depth, but the following press release caught my interest at the end of last month, if only for the part about Magna International. If Magna’s Frank Stronach, the Henry Ford of our day, is getting involved with e-mobility and EVs, it’s very likely to be “the next big thing”.

A modern electric car has only about five main moving parts compared with hundreds in an internal combustion engine. There are no regular visits to the dealership for an EV. No oil changes, no filters – even brake pads last two-to-three times longer than in conventional cars, because EVs like the THINK City use regenerative braking to recapture the energy that would otherwise be lost while braking. Your first trip to the dealership with an EV for scheduled maintenance is at 40,000 miles to check the brake pads. Eventually, you’ll need new wiper blades and tires. But that’s about it!

Celadon Applications Announces the Release of the Road2™ Mobile Application to Eliminate Range Anxiety for Electric Vehicle Drivers

Celadon Applications, (www.CeladonApps.com ), creator of intelligent green energy and transportation software applications for the electric vehicle and alternate energy markets, is announcing the release of their newest application for eliminating "range anxiety" in electric and hybrid vehicles, Road2™.

Iowa City, IA (PRWEB) August 25, 2010

Celadon Applications, (www.CeladonApps.com ), creator of intelligent green energy and transportation software applications for the electric vehicle and alternate energy markets, is announcing the release of their newest application for eliminating "range anxiety" in electric and hybrid vehicles, Road2™.

Road2 is an advanced vehicle simulator that enables drivers of electric and hybrid vehicles to determine accurately and easily how far they can drive on specific battery charge level over a route of their choice. The application is essential for electric and hybrid vehicles of all types. Road2 is not a theoretical calculation like many rudimentary approaches, but uses specific sensor data, individual vehicle characteristics, weather, topographic and road conditions and other elements to provide an accurate measure with which the driver can feel confident.

Drivers must know they can drive somewhere and get home again, never being stranded. The EV market will require many elements for growth, but most important to a driver's buying decision is eliminating driver "range anxiety".

Road2 is an application which drivers can use with their Smartphones, desktops, on the internet, and even in their vehicles. Simply select where you want to go, and Road2 will tell you which route is fastest, shortest or uses the least battery energy while insuring you get there and back. Locations and specifications of charging station opportunities along the way are provided. Road2 bases all calculations on your specific vehicle configuration, route, weather, topology and many other factors, every 0.1 meter.

-------Top tier auto supply companies such as Magna International have purchased Road2. Celadon is in discussions with other manufacturers and suppliers. The Iowa Department of Economic Development and the Pappajohn Entrepreneurial Center (http://www.iowajpec.org/) have recognized Celadon as a high potential company and in the forefront of providing applications for the blossoming electric car market such as Nissan Leaf, GM Volt, Tesla, Honda, Toyota Prius, etc.

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2010/08/prweb4422784.htm

With $1-billion windfall, Stronach plunges into new ventures

Published On Wed Sep 1 2010

When Frank Stronach touched down aboard a corporate jet in Vienna near Magna International’s European headquarters on Wednesday night, his mind wasn’t much on clinching a $1-billion payoff from the company.

Like a secret agent feverishly hop-scotching across the world’s hot spots, the legendary entrepreneur was already deep into another mission. Not much time to count cash.

This time, Stronach was in pursuit of what he considers the next big thing: electric cars.

The part-time Magna chairman and full-time visionary wants to make sure the manufacturing powerhouse gets in front of the pack and stays there.

A $1-billion gain would likely cause pause for even some of the world’s richest people, but not for the 77-year-old Austrian immigrant and former tool-and-die maker who started a small Toronto shop in 1956 and turned it into the fourth-largest auto parts company in the world.

“I wasn’t too interested,” Stronach said in an interview after arriving at the head office in Oberwaltersdorf, Austria. “I don’t see much of a difference.”

While lawyers battled in an Ontario court this week over whether Stronach and his family trust should get the windfall in cash and stock plus other lucrative benefits in exchange for his controlling stake in Magna, he was busy with talks in the Far East.

It was the middle of a three-week trek by a Magna team studying and scouting opportunities on what can and can’t work in the emerging world of electric vehicles for the masses.

http://www.thestar.com/business/companies/magna/article/855718--with-1-billion-windfall-stronach-plunges-into-new-ventures

I am a big believer in our new arriving electronic age, I see e-vehicles now as the equivalent of autos in about 1908. By 1920 they were on their way to dominate the world. If we can come up with enough Neodymium and dysprosium to make it all happen, I expect the transition to renewable energy, megawatt grid storage, e-mobilty, and build-out of the recharging industry, the new “gas stations of the 21^st century”, to be the driver of our way out of the current recession/depression. Below, latest developments in EV.

Electrical vehicles emit no tailpipe emissions while driving. We are not counting grams. We simply have no tailpipe at all, and no local CO2, nitrous oxide, or particle emissions. Driving electrical vehicles will even reduce noise pollution. It is both clean and silent.

Tazzari Zero electric car comes to the UK

Retailer EV Stores will sell the Italian-built, lithium-ion-powered Tazzari Zero for £21,500.

Wednesday 1 September 2010 16.08 BST

Specialist electric vehicle retailer EVStores has announced it will begin selling the Tazzari Zero electric vehicle in the UK from later this month.

The company said the Zero, a compact two-seat vehicle, purpose built for battery electric propulsion, will be available from its London showroom from 12 September.

The Zero is powered by lithium-ion batteries that boast a range between charges of around 140km or about 87 miles. The car is also expected to reach an electronically capped top speed of 100 km/h (62mph) and will deliver acceleration from zero to 50km/h (31mph) in less than five seconds, ensuring the Zero should feel sufficiently powerful for urban roads.

The car is built by Tazzari, an Italian firm with a background in aluminium casting and other engineering services. Unsurprisingly, the Zero makes substantial use of aluminium in its construction to provide a light and strong frame. Including its 142kg battery pack, the Zero weighs under 550kg, or about 200kg less than a petrol-powered Smart ForTwo city car.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/sep/01/tazzari-zero-electric-car

Think city electric car heads to the Alps

Now there is a sustainable way to enjoy the stunning beauty of the Swiss Alps this summer-drive an electric car!

Norwegian electric carmaker, Think and its Swiss distributor, M-Way, have teamed up with eco-tourism specialists Alpmobil to offer visitors to its resorts totally carbon-neutral transportation for use on their vacation.

A fleet of 60 THINK City EVs has been made available in the Goms and Haslital region of the Swiss Alps, and will be available for hire through some 30 hotels, resorts and other touristic hot spots in the area. Better still, the car’s will be recharged using electricity generated from the natural power of the area, making it truly zero emission driving. EV charging is made accessible around the region thanks to more than 20 battery charging points that have been installed in the area – powered by renewable hydroelectric generated electricity derived from local mountain waters, reservoirs and dams.

Alpmobil will be marketing the service through its website and its resorts in the region, and the EVs will be available for hire at a special rate of some €45.00 per day for Alpmobil customers.

The programme will run as a trial during peak European holiday season until end of September 2010, when the trial will be reviewed.

-----The latest generation THINK City can cover 160 kilometres on a single charge (via conventional household outlet) and has a top speed of 110 km/h.

http://www.thegreencarwebsite.co.uk/blog/index.php/2010/08/09/think-city-electric-car-heads-to-the-alps/

We end for today with food riots starting up again, in response to our weather impacted crops of wheat, barley and rice this year. If global cooling is in our future for the next 20 years, this ranks with a switch to renewable energy as the most important challenge we all face.

At least 4 die in Mozambique food riots

By the CNN Wire Staff September 2, 2010

(CNN) -- At least four people died and 27 were wounded in riots that erupted Wednesday after Mozambique's government announced increases in the price of bread, water, energy and other critical goods, the southern African nation's official news agency reported.

The exact death toll was unclear -- the news agency said other "credible sources" were reporting at least 10 people had died.

-----Police made 142 arrests, according to police spokesman Pedro Cossa, who said casualty figures were likely to rise.

Cossa said police used tear gas and rubber bullets against the rioters, but local media -- citing witnesses -- said real bullets were also used.

Three buses were burned, 32 shops were vandalized and more than five cars were burned or vandalized, Cossa added.

The price hikes are to go into effect September 6.

The violence took place in the cities of Maputo and Matola, with the deaths occurring on the outskirts of Maputo, the Mozambique News Agency reported.

Bank and electricity company offices were vandalized, and food warehouses belonging to the Sasseka and Delta Trading distribution companies were looted, the report said.

He said the government is already subsidizing the prices of food goods and gas.

Minister of Interior Jose Pacheco -- during a news conference -- had called for calm and exhorted parents to control their teenagers.

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/africa/09/01/mozambique.violence/index.html?hpt=P1#fbid=0ZR_3t_KNP9&wom=false

TH!NK city is the world’s only crash-tested and highway-certified electric car. It is a very safe car that is designed to meet the strict safety requirements in both Europe and the US as a ‘highway safe’ road car. It is equipped with ABS brakes, airbags and three point safety belts with pretensioners. The advanced frame is designed to absorb energy and distribute it away from the passenger compartment. The dashboard and knee padding have been developed to absorb impact. Both doors have side impact bars and pusher blocks made of shock-absorbent materials.

Our engineers expect the TH!NK city to achieve a four or five star rating in the EuroNCAP frontal crash test when and if the vehicle is tested.

At the Comex silver depositories Wednesday, final figures were: Registered 51.81 Moz, Eligible 58.50 Moz, Total 110.31 Moz.

+++++

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

No crooks today just the first really dangerous storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. The computer models still all show it staying out in the Atlantic, but the eastern US and Canada are taking no chances.

Island evacuations start as Earl nears East Coast

NAGS HEAD, N.C. – Hurricane Earl steamed toward the Eastern Seaboard early Thursday as communities from North Carolina to New England kept a close eye on the forecast, worried that even a slight shift in the storm's predicted offshore track could put millions of people in the most densely populated part of the country in harm's way.

Vacationers along North Carolina's dangerously exposed Outer Banks took advantage of the typical picture-perfect day just before a hurricane arrives to pack their cars and flee inland, cutting short their summer just before Labor Day weekend.

The governors of North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland declared states of emergency, sea turtle nests on one beach were scooped up and moved to safety, and the crew of the Navy's USS Cole rushed to get home to Norfolk, Va., on Wednesday ahead of the bad weather. The destroyer was supposed to return later this week from a seven-month assignment fighting piracy off Somalia.

Farther up the East Coast, emergency officials urged people to have disaster plans and supplies ready and weighed whether to order evacuations as they watched the latest maps from the National Hurricane Center — namely, the "cone of uncertainty" showing the broad path the storm could take.

Earl was expected to reach the North Carolina coast late Thursday and wheel to the northeast, staying offshore while making its way up the Eastern Seaboard. But forecasters said it could move in closer, perhaps coming ashore in North Carolina, crossing New York's Long Island and passing over the Boston metropolitan area and Cape Cod.

That could make the difference between modestly wet and blustery weather on the one hand, and dangerous storm surge, heavy rain and hurricane-force winds on the other.

----As of early Thursday, Earl was a powerful Category 4 hurricane centered more than 460 miles south of Cape Hatteras, N.C., with winds of 140 mph. The most powerful category is 5 with winds 155 mph and higher.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/tropical_weather

It is September 2^nd and here in warm southern England’s Thames Valley I saw my first Vee flight of incoming geese this morning, about the earliest I can remember. Of course the might have been a flight of geese that stay here all the time, although they never fly around in Vee formations. It might mean nothing, but our visiting House Martins all left back for Africa at the end of July, the earliest I can recall too. Even the 50 strong flock of Swifts left for Africa last month, before the fields above the Pang valley where I walk the dog were harvested, another first. Do they know something we don’t?

Graeme takes the last Friday off for the summer, tomorrow, the next update will be on Monday, America’s Labour Day holiday. Hopefully hurricane Earl will stay out to sea. Have a great weekend everyone, whether celebrating Labour Day or just heading towards a regular working Monday.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August:

DJIA: +243 Down. NASDAQ: +366 Down. SP500: +243 Down.

The bull market (or bear market rally) that commenced on Nasdaq on 30/4/09 at 1717 has ended. (30/5/09 SP 500 at 919, 30/5/09 DJIA 8500.) While the indicators can flip flop at market turns, this action is rare on the slow monthly indicators. August is the third down month in a row and “crash season” approaches.

Technorati Tags: Peak oil,Electiric vehicles,Magna International,Frank Stronach,Food riots,hurricane Earl,global cooling,rare earths and metals