Showing posts with label missing sunspots. Show all posts
Showing posts with label missing sunspots. Show all posts

Friday, 8 October 2010

Japan Panics.

Baltic Dry Index. 2662 +23
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $3,000.

"If ever there was an area in which to do the exact opposite of that which government and the media urge you to do, that area is the purchasing of gold."

Robert Ringer

After a failed attempt at currency manipulation last week, Japan’s government appears to be panicking. Below the latest news from the land of the setting sun. Another 5 trillion yen is to be poured down the same rat hole that’s swallowed countless trillion yen over the last two decades, all so far in a futile attempt at rebuilding the golden decade of the 1980s bubble economy. An eerie trailer for the US economy to come? Not too worry, it’s only fiat yen and there’s plenty more where that comes from.

"The first requisite of a sound monetary system is that it put the least possible power over the quantity or quality of money in the hands of the politicians."

Henry Hazlitt

Japanese Cabinet OKs $61 Billion Economic Stimulus

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS Published: October 7, 2010

TOKYO (AP) — Japan's Cabinet on Friday approved 5.05 trillion yen ($61 billion) in new economic stimulus, the latest in a string of measures to shore up the country's lethargic economy that has been battered by a surging yen.

The plan also called for funding to secure rare earths needed for Japan's advanced manufacturing after China last month imposed a de facto export ban on the minerals amid a territorial dispute between the two Asian giants.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan's new package aims to boost Japan's gross domestic product by 0.6 percentage points, create or save up to 500,000 jobs and take other steps to help small and medium sized businesses.

It comes just days after the central bank cut its key interest rate to virtually zero. Last month, the Bank of Japan also intervened in the currency market in what appears to have been a fruitless attempt to rein in the strong yen — which hit another 15-year high against the dollar this week.

Exports are down, factory output is falling and Japan continues to struggle with deflation, a situation in which falling prices can drag on corporate profits, paychecks and the overall economy. The yen's spike, meanwhile, erodes overseas earnings for major exporters like Toyota Motor Corp. and Canon Inc.

Kan, who came to power just four months ago and survived a leadership challenge from within his party in September, has been under heavy political pressure to produce a tangible path to recovery for Japan's economy.

The massive new package, to be submitted this month to parliament for approval, follows 915 billion yen ($11 billion) in measures that Kan's government unveiled last month.

More.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2010/10/07/business/global/AP-AS-Japan-Economy.html

Staying with Asia, China OKs listing the yuan for electronic trading. Another small step towards making the yuan fully convertible. In another age, the big loser would be next door Japan’s yen. But this is not that other gentler, kinder, age, the early age when having just made the dollar a fiat currency, and with it every other currency on the planet which was linked to it by the 1944 Breton Woods Agreement, the fiat currency age of capitalism before casino capitalism and banksterism took over, displacing commerce and industry, replaced by insane derivatives gambling backed up by too big to fail, central bank crony bailouts. Still, the yuan will never become the world’s fiat currency replacing the failing US dollar. There’s absolutely no reason to think that China’s politicians would run a fiat yuan reserve currency any better than American politicians ran theirs.

"The history of paper money is an account of abuse, mismanagement, and financial disaster."

Richard M. Ebeling

OCTOBER 7, 2010

Yuan Goes Electronic In Global Market Bid

BEIJING—The Chinese yuan is going electronic, a sign of the growing interest generated by China's experiment in liberalizing offshore use of its currency.

ICAP PLC and Thomson Reuters Corp., which began allowing the yuan to trade on their electronic-trading platforms last week, said they are in discussions with banks in the U.S. and Europe about using the new systems. Neither company would identify the banks, but ICAP has handled several yuan trades a day that average roughly $2 million.

It is a small start, and the trading is limited to the relatively small pool of yuan circulating in Hong Kong. Still, the advent of electronic trading of the yuan and its likely expansion to traders beyond Hong Kong mark an important toward building the infrastructure to support a global market for the currency.

China's government has made a series of moves in the past year to encourage the yuan's use outside China, an effort to become less dependent on the dollar for trade and investment. The moves are allowing pools of yuan to accumulate in bank accounts outside of China, particularly Hong Kong.

Hong Kong banks have been trading the currency among themselves, but through over-the-counter trades where the banks contact each other directly or through brokers. The entry of companies such as ICAP and Thomson Reuters means that prices and trading amounts will be posted openly.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704011904575537754269611906.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hpp_LEFTTopWhatNews#articleTabs%3Darticle

As power shifts from the west to east, thanks to President Nixon’s deranged adoption of fiat reserve currency and financial casino gambling, Gallup reports on the new reality in the USA, facing all not in an industry that’s a friend of the Fed. Is it any wonder that there’s revolution coming in America’s ballot boxes this November.

"With the exception only of the period of the gold standard, practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue money to defraud and plunder the people."

F.A. von Hayek

October 7, 2010

Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment at 10.1% in September

Underemployment, at 18.8%, is up from 18.6% at the end of August

by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist

PRINCETON, NJ -- Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 10.1% in September -- up sharply from 9.3% in August and 8.9% in July. Much of this increase came during the second half of the month -- the unemployment rate was 9.4% in mid-September -- and therefore is unlikely to be picked up in the government's unemployment report on Friday.

Gallop Employment

Next, the run to gold has belatedly started and is being promoted by the bailed out banksters. They can see the end of fiat currency arriving this decade too.

"As fewer and fewer people have confidence in paper as a store of value, the price of gold will continue to rise."

Jerome F. Smith

Super-rich buy gold by the ton

The world's wealthiest people have responded to economic worries by buying gold by the bar by the ton.

Published: 8:07AM BST 05 Oct 2010

The world's wealthiest people have responded to economic worries by buying gold by the bar - and sometimes by the ton - and by moving assets out of the financial system, bankers catering to the very rich told Reuters, the news agency.

Fears of a double-dip downturn have boosted the appetite for physical bullion as well as for mining company shares and exchange-traded funds, UBS executive Josef Stadler told the Reuters Global Private Banking Summit.

They don't only buy ETFs or futures; they buy physical gold," said Stadler, who runs the Swiss bank's services for clients with assets of at least $50 million to invest.

UBS is recommending top-tier clients hold 7-10 percent of their assets in precious metals like gold, which is on course for its tenth consecutive yearly gain and traded at around $1,314.50 an ounce on Monday, near the record level reached last week.

"We had a clear example of a couple buying over a ton of gold ... and carrying it to another place," Stadler said. At today's prices, that shipment would be worth about $42 million.

Julius Baer's chief investment officer for Asia is also recommending that wealthy investors park some of their assets in gold as a defensive stance following a string of lackluster U.S. data and amid concerns about currency weakness.

"I see gold as an insurance," Van Anantha-Nageswaran told Reuters. "I recommend 10 percent as minimum in portfolios and anything more than that to be used for trading purposes, to respond to short-term over-bought or over-sold signals."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/8042968/Super-rich-buy-gold-by-the-ton.html

Below, one of the reasons the rich and anyone else with some sense are buying gold. The fiat money system finally went bust in 2008, we are just not yet prepared to admit it and that to reform the system, we need to write off globally multi trillions of non performing, unrepayable debt.

"Someone must stand up to those who say, "Here's the key, there's the Treasury, just take as many of those hard-earned tax dollars as you want."

President Ronald Reagan

Iceland Banks May Be Asked to Forgive $2 Billion After Protests

Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Iceland’s banks may come under pressure to forgive about $2 billion in mortgage debt after protests this week prompted the government to consider proposals from the island’s homeowner protection group.

“The debt the banks have to write off could very well be very challenging for them,” said Economy Minister Arni Pall Arnason, in an interview in Reykjavik. “So be it. The banks have to acknowledge quickly that current debt levels are unrealistic and that timely write-offs are necessary. Full stop.”

The government is eager to show voters it is committed to reducing families’ debt burdens after the Oct. 4 unrest. The protests drew bigger crowds than in the weeks before former Prime Minister Geir H. Haarde’s administration was ousted in January 2009. The Interest Group of the Homes, which represents households demanding debt relief, says banks should write off about 200 billion kronur ($1.8 billion) in mortgage loans to help the 39 percent of homeowners who are technically insolvent.

Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir held emergency talks after the protests, in which about 8,000 demonstrators gathered to express their anger over rising homeowner insolvencies. Sigurdardottir said her government isn’t ruling anything out.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZG2npchHFCY&pos=7

"The London Banker Henry Fauntleroy forged to keep his bank solvent. He was executed for it in 1824."

Charles P. Kindleberger. Manias, Panics and Crashes.

At the Comex silver depositories Thursday, final figures were: Registered 52.25 Moz, Eligible 59.62 Moz, Total 111.87 Moz.

+++++

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Below, more on America’s black swan. Greed and avarice drove the Greenspan Fed’s deliberately created real estate bubble, which they created to try to overcome the aftermath of their collapsed stock market and dot con bubble of the 1990s. Remember NASDAQ, “the stock market for the next 100 years”. It now turns out that much of the real estate bubble was fraudulent from top to bottom, though that didn’t stop Wall Street from slicing and dicing the mortgages into various classes of mortgage backed securities, with the top class falsely insured into “triple-A” status and peddled to the unsuspecting world.

Now that bubble has well and truly burst, and massive amounts of the mortgages have gone into default. But in typical modern US bankster style, the toxic trash was peddled furiously around the SIVs specifically created by the banksters to keep the unsalable worst trance of toxic trash off the bank’s balance sheets, without anyone bothering to pay for keeping the paperwork in order. Why pay the fees on filing the right title transfer paperwork with the counties, or pay a notary to record witnessing signatures when they could just be forged or ignored. The result is now after 200 years, to make US real estate titles little better than the convoluted mess of Latin American banana republic real estate titles. Below, the NY Times covers the growing story that will likely end in “the next Lehman”, and hopefully, jail time for some of the banksters. Thus did America surrender its privilege of running the world’s only fiat reserve currency and economic leadership in the world. Stay long precious metals. Banksterism replaced capitalism in America under Greenspan – Bernanke. Sadly this only gets worse ahead.

"It is the greenback which is unstable, and not the bullion."

Dr. Franz Pick

Flawed Foreclosure Documents Thwart Home Sales

By ANDREW MARTIN and DAVID STREITFELD Published: October 7, 2010

OCALA, Fla. — Amanda Ducksworth was supposed to move in to her new home this week, a three-bedroom steal here in central Florida with a horse farm across the road. Instead, she is camped out with her 7-year-old son at her boss’s house.

Like many buyers across the country, Ms. Ducksworth was about to complete the purchase of a foreclosed house when it suddenly went off the market. Fannie Mae, the giant mortgage holding company that buys loans from commercial lenders, is pulling back sales of homes that might have been foreclosed in bad faith.

“I gave up my rental thinking I would have a house,” said Ms. Ducksworth, a 28-year-old catering assistant. “Now I’m sharing a room with my son. What the hell is up with that?”

With home sales this past summer at the lowest level in more than a decade, real estate is ill-prepared to suffer another blow. But as a scandal unfolds over mortgage lenders’ shoddy preparation of foreclosure documents, the fallout is beginning to hammer the housing market, especially in states like Florida where distressed properties are abundant.

“This crisis takes a situation that’s already bad and kind of cements it into place,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist for MFR Inc., an economic consulting firm.

Three major mortgage lenders — Bank of America, GMAC Mortgage and JPMorgan Chase — have said they are suspending foreclosures in the 23 states where they first need a judge’s approval. They are also waving off Fannie Mae from selling any of the foreclosed homes whose loans they sold to Fannie.

The companies say they are reviewing their operations after disclosures that employees signed documents without determining the accuracy of the material, as is required by law.

Those reviews are throwing into limbo hundreds of thousands of foreclosures and pending home sales, analysts estimate, though the lenders and Fannie Mae have been mostly silent about precise numbers and other specifics.

More broadly, the revelations about the sloppy paperwork are emboldening homeowners and law enforcement officials in many states to question whether lenders rightfully hold the notes underlying foreclosed properties — further chilling the housing market.

Distressed properties, many of which are in foreclosure, make up about a third of all home sales. “Foreclosures are going to slow to a crawl,” said Guy D. Cecala, publisher of the trade magazine Inside Mortgage Finance.

Of the 23 states where foreclosures need court approval, Florida has by far the most trouble — about a half-million cases clog its courts — and the moratoriums are having a noticeable effect.

Because most lenders sold their mortgages to Fannie Mae, it is largely that company that has been sending e-mails to real estate agents about putting off deals and removing houses from the market. In most cases, the agents are being told the freeze will last 30 to 90 days, but agents say there is no way to know for sure.

A snapshot of the problems can be seen at the real estate agency that sold Ms. Ducksworth her home, Marc Joseph Realty, based in Fort Myers.

The agency had 35 deals that were supposed to close this month. As of Thursday, Fannie had postponed 11 of them. Another handful of homes that did not have offers or were being prepared for market had also been withdrawn.

“If this wipes out half my inventory, that’s a scary thing,” said Bill Mitchell, the agency’s closing coordinator.

As he spoke, his computer pinged and another message from Fannie came through about withdrawing a house. It had the subject line, “Unable to Market Notice.”

More

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/08/business/08frozen.html?_r=1&hp

Below, pass out the pitchforks, heat up the tar, open the barrel of feathers, and bring out the tumbrels, ZeroHedge exposes just how corrupt America’s real estate debacle has become.

Bombshell of Foreclosure Fraud – Full Deposition of TAMMIE LOU KAPUSTA Law Office of David J Stern

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bombshell-foreclosure-fraud-%E2%80%93-full-deposition-tammie-lou-kapusta-law-office-david-j-stern

The paper standard is self-destructive."

Hans F. Sennholz

Another weekend, and time to enjoy God’s gift to mankind. Our woods and hedgerows are crammed full of Autumn’s bounty. Fungi are approaching their peak, but only for the knowledgeable to pick. The sweet chestnut trees have commenced dropping their edible chestnuts, the elderflower bushes are brimming with berries, the sloe are in full fruit, the last of the crab apples are still on the trees. Sadly in modern dumbed down Britain, few even see this abundance let alone know what to do with it. Have a great weekend everyone. More on the blog at the weekend.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September:

DJIA: +227 Down. NASDAQ: +321 Down. SP500: +221 Down.

The bull market (or bear market rally) that commenced on Nasdaq on 30/4/09 at 1717 has ended. (30/5/09 SP 500 at 919, 30/5/09 DJIA 8500.) While the indicators can flip flop at market turns, this action is rare on the slow monthly indicators. September is the fourth down month in a row.

Wednesday, 6 October 2010

Buying Tangible Assets.

Baltic Dry Index. 2569 +91
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $3,000.

"The history of fiat money is little more than a register of monetary follies and inflations. Our present age merely affords another entry in this dismal register."

Hans F. Sennholz

It’s time to buy tangible assets, think the world’s managers of smart money, as Japan kicks off a new race to the bottom in fiat currency devaluation. Below, the scandal tainted Frenchman running the IMF attempts to shut the stable door long after the horses have bolted. The Great Nixonian Error of fiat currency is deep into its final act of tragedy. But don’t tell anyone in the stock markets, where all news is now only good news. Time to swap yet more pictures of dead US white men for something real.

"Gold was not selected arbitrarily by governments to be the monetary standard. Gold had developed for many centuries on the free market as the best money; as the commodity providing the most stable and desirable monetary medium."

Murray N. Rothbard

IMF chief fears risk of currency war after Japan's zero interest rate move

The Bank of Japan’s surprise move to reinstate zero interest rates has led to a warning of the danger of a currency war from the head of the International Monetary Fund.

By Philip Aldrick and Jonathan Russell Published: 11:34PM BST 05 Oct 2010

Dominique Strauss-Kahn warned that moves by central banks across the world to cut interest rates and carry out billions of pounds worth of quantitative easing could upset the global economy recovery as currencies chased each other ever lower.

In an interview with the Financial Times, he said: “There is clearly the idea beginning to circulate that currencies can be used as a policy weapon. Translated into action, such an idea would represent a very serious risk to the global recovery ... Any such approach would have a negative and very damaging longer-run impact.”

Japan surprised markets by adopting a zero interest rate policy and announcing plans for quantitative easing (QE) in an attempt to inject fresh stimulus into the economy.

The move led to an immediate fall in the value of the yen against the dollar.

The Japanese central bank has pledged to buy assets worth five trillion yen (£38bn) and cut its overnight rate to between zero and 0.1pc,from 0.1pc, reinstating the so-called “zero interest policy” that the Bank only ended in July 2006.

It will keep its benchmark rate effectively at zero until establishing price stability, adopting a similar loose policy commitment to the US Federal Reserve.

The size of the QE programme roughly matches the extra stimulus package desired by the Japanese government. Japan is running out of options as it seeks to reinvigorate its economy in the face of national debt running at twice the national output – the largest of the advanced economies.

-----Japan is not the only country enact policies that could suppress the value of its currency. Brazil recently threatened to intervene to keep the real down and earlier this week doubled taxes on foreign investors buying Brazilian bonds. The move was seen as way of stopping large inflows of foreign currency pushing up the value of the real.

Mr Strauss-Kahn was speaking ahead of this week’s IMF and World Bank annual meeting.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/8045133/IMF-chief-fears-risk-of-currency-war-after-Japans-zero-interest-rate-move.html

Today we leave the last word on the fiat currency war to the hard working, tax paying Germans, new owners of the land formerly known as Greece. Will Germanic habits invade Greece, or Greek habits invade Germany?

"With the exception only of the period of the gold standard, practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue money to defraud and plunder the people."

F.A. von Hayek

World Faces New Wave of Currency Wars

The Specter of Protectionism 10/05/2010

An American bill imposing punitive tarifs on countries that undervalue their currencies is set to unleash a new trade war between the US and China. But in fact the whole global currency system is in a state of jeopardy. As confidence in the dollar drops, private investors are putting their faith in gold. By SPIEGEL Staff.

At first glance, the new bill sounds perfectly innocuous. "H. R. 2378 -- Currency Reform for Fair Trade Act" was on the agenda of the US House of Representatives late last Wednesday afternoon. Fair trade -- who could object to that?

But as the representatives started debating, it didn't sound harmless anymore. In fact, it sounded like war.

"International trade is a high-stakes, cutthroat business. And every time we simply talk, the other side acts. And every time they act, an American loses a job," said Xavier Becerra, a Democratic congressman from California.

Timothy Murphy, a Republican from Pennsylvania, went one step further: "We are about to lose our position as a global leader when next year China overtakes us as the biggest manufacturer in the world. The trouble is that China has never really accepted the basic rules of fair trade."

Democrat Linda Sanchez from California argued: "Opponents say that this bill will start a trade war. I say, we are already in a trade war. And China is using cannons and we're standing here shooting (air gun) pellets."

More.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,721044,00.html#ref=nlint

image-138065-galleryV9-shau

Banks' $4 trillion debts are 'Achilles’ heel of the economic recovery', warns IMF

More taxpayer support is needed to ensure global financial stability despite the billions already pledged, the International Monetary Fund has warned, as banks remain the “achilles heel” of the economic recovery.

By Philip Aldrick, Economics Editor Published: 2:27PM BST 05 Oct 2010

Lenders across Europe and the US are facing a $4 trillion refinancing hurdle in the coming 24 months and many still need to recapitalise, the Washington-based organisation said in its Global Financial Stability Report. Governments will have to inject fresh equity into banks – particularly in Spain, Germany and the US – as well as prop up their funding structures by extending emergency support.

“Progress toward global financial stability has experienced a setback since April ... [due to] the recent turmoil in sovereign debt markets,” the IMF said. “The global financial system is still in a period of significant uncertainty and remains the Achilles’ heel of the economic recovery.”

Although banks have recognised all but $550bn of the $2.2 trillion of bad debts the IMF estimates needed to be written off between 2007 and 2010, they are still facing a looming funding shock that will need state support. “Nearly $4 trillion of bank debt will need to be rolled over in the next 24 months,” the report says.

“Planned exit strategies from unconventional monetary and financial support may need to be delayed until the situation is more robust, especially in Europe... With the situation still fragile, some of the public support that has been given to banks in recent years will have to be continued.”

Although the IMF does not mention individual countries, it is clear it has concerns about the UK. According to the Bank of England, British banks need to refinance £750bn-£800bn of funding by the end of 2012, £285bn of which is emergency support that expires in the same period.

The IMF adds: “Without further bolstering of balance sheets, banking systems remain susceptible to funding shocks that could intensify deleveraging pressures and place a further drag on public finances and the recovery.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8043800/Banks-4-trillion-debts-are-Achilles-heel-of-the-economic-recovery-warns-IMF.html

Elsewhere, smart money is moving itself into tangible assets of long term value. Why hold dodgy fiat currency if everyone and their dog is going to trash fiat currency in a futile effort to beggar their neighbor. Stay long precious metals. Gold has remonitised itself no matter what the central banksters think.

"As fewer and fewer people have confidence in paper as a store of value, the price of gold will continue to rise."

Jerome F. Smith

Gold futures climb near $1,350 on Globex

Oct. 6, 2010, 1:18 a.m. EDT

TOKYO (MarketWatch) — Gold futures extended their record streak onto Globex during Asia’s Wednesday afternoon trading, with the Bank of Japan’s surprise cut in interest rates and further weakness in the U.S. dollar helping to lift prices for the precious metal to nearly $1,350 an ounce.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-futures-climb-above-1345-on-globex-2010-10-05

Copper hits 26-month high, but rally could stall

Long-term prospects for metal are bullish, but first, a correction?

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Copper soared to a 26-month high on Tuesday, adding to a longer-term rally on the back of a weaker dollar that has made investing in commodities more appealing. But the metal could get a reality check in just a few days.

Analysts are quick to point out the fundamentals of the copper market bode well for sustained high prices. Supply has stalled, with very few new mines coming on line in a sector rife with labor disputes. There is enough demand from China alone to support strong prices for copper.

-----Copper rose 8.3% in September, following gains of 1.5% in August and 12% in July. So far this year, the metal has gained 11%, earning it a sure spot among 2010’s most lucrative investments.

Moreover, copper is generally seen as a harbinger of economic activity. The metal is sometimes called Dr. Copper — a nickname earned for its ability to run ahead of booms and busts because of its widespread use in building, manufacturing and electronics.

And at least one major investment bank thinks the rally has plenty of legs. Goldman Sachs, also a major commodities broker, on Tuesday increased its price targets for copper, making a case for long-term higher prices on supply constraints and hopes demand will pick up.

-----“Even relatively conservative demand forecasts suggest that the global copper market will sustain deficits large enough to mostly deplete exchange inventories over the next five quarters, leading to periods of extreme volatility and price spikes,” the Goldman analysts said.

They raised their price forecasts well past $8,000 per metric ton in the next three and six months, and pegged copper at $11,000 a metric ton in 12 months, or $5 a pound.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/copper-extends-rise-but-short-term-dip-may-be-due-2010-10-05

Oil rallies to a five-month high

Traders will get their first look at inventories Tuesday afternoon

Oct. 5, 2010, 3:36 p.m. EDT

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Crude futures rose to a five-month high Tuesday, helped by a weaker U.S. dollar, bullish moves in global equities and hopes that the U.S. will soon follow Japan’s footsteps in expanding liquidity measures.

----Gasoline finished at a two-month high.

A surprise interest-rate cut in Japan helped set the tone, with the nation’s central bank pledging to buy assets while setting its key interest rate between zero and 0.1%.

A similar round of moves giving rise to currency devaluations in the U.S. and around the world — as well as tightening oil-market fundamentals — are likely to push prices even higher, analysts at J.P. Morgan wrote in a note Tuesday.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-resumes-gains-nears-82-a-barrel-2010-10-05

In food and weather news, bad news from the southern hemisphere where winter has turned into spring, and brought the worst late winter blizzard “in living memory”. New Zealand is a major supplier of lamb to the world and it is only a matter of time before the price of lamb will rise to reflect reduced supply.

NZ - Snow hits farmers big time

05 Oct 2010

Following a reasonably benign winter, the Southland region of New Zealand (NZ) has in the past week been hit by “the worst spring storm in living memory” according to the NZ Herald.

Six days of blizzards have caused deaths among new lambs numbering in the hundreds of thousands, and raised concern over the welfare of ewes yet to lamb.

Besides the effect of the cold weather itself, the continued snowfall has not allowed snow on the ground to thaw, making it much harder for stock to feed.

This makes ewes about to lamb particularly susceptible to metabolic illnesses from a lack of nutrients.

Reportedly, lamb mortality in the area may be as high as 15% for some farmers.

http://www.meattradenewsdaily.co.uk/news/051010/nz___snow_hits_farmers_big_time_.aspx

Bad news too for those of us fearing the arrival of global cooling. Is another hard back to back winter about to hit in the northern hemisphere?

Coldest winter in 1,000 years on its way

04 October, 2010, 22:20

After the record heat wave this summer, Russia's weather seems to have acquired a taste for the extreme.

Forecasters say this winter could be the coldest Europe has seen in the last 1,000 years.

The change is reportedly connected with the speed of the Gulf Stream, which has shrunk in half in just the last couple of years. Polish scientists say that it means the stream will not be able to compensate for the cold from the Arctic winds. According to them, when the stream is completely stopped, a new Ice Age will begin in Europe.Read more

So far, the results have been lower temperatures: for example, in Central Russia, they are a couple of degrees below the norm.

“Although the forecast for the next month is only 70 percent accurate, I find the cold winter scenario quite likely,” Vadim Zavodchenkov, a leading specialist at the Fobos weather center, told RT. “We will be able to judge with more certainty come November. As for last summer's heat, the statistical models that meteorologists use to draw up long-term forecasts aren't able to predict an anomaly like that.”

http://rt.com/prime-time/2010-10-04/coldest-winter-emergency-measures.html/print

"For more than two thousand years gold's natural qualities made it man's universal medium of exchange. In contrast to political money, gold is honest money that survived the ages and will live on long after the political fiats of today have gone the way of all paper."

Hans F. Sennholz

At the Comex silver depositories Tuesday, final figures were: Registered 52.26 Moz, Eligible 58.79 Moz, Total 111.05 Moz.

+++++

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

No crooks or scoundrels today, at least not in the ordinary use of those words. Today, the latest news from the USA on renewable energy. The timing has all to do with getting access to expiring federal grants and loan guarantees for renewable energy. Still, the solar plants if built, will advance the solar technology database and as with all new technologies as they get adopted, will likely lead to big advances in solar power efficiency in the decade ahead. California today, America tomorrow, the rest of the world that day after. Well maybe not quite, but with a world heading towards a population of 9 billion by mid century, renewable energy has to be a part of meeting our future energy needs.

Solar Power Plants to Rise on U.S. Land

By FELICITY BARRINGER Published: October 5, 2010

SAN FRANCISCO — Proposals for the first large solar power plants ever built on federal lands won final approval on Tuesday from Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, reflecting the Obama administration’s resolve to promote renewable energy in the face of Congressional inaction.

Both plants are to rise in the California desert under a fast-track program that dovetails with the state’s own aggressive effort to push development of solar, wind and geothermal power. The far larger one, a 709-megawatt project proposed by Tessera Solar on 6,360 acres in the Imperial Valley, will use “Suncatchers” — reflectors in the shape of radar dishes — to concentrate solar energy and activate a four-cylinder engine to generate electricity.

A 45-megawatt system proposed by Chevron Energy Solutions and featuring arrays of up to 40,500 solar panels will be built on 422 acres of the Lucerne Valley. When complete, the two projects could generate enough energy to power as many as 566,000 homes.

Mr. Salazar is expected to sign off on perhaps five more projects this year; the combined long-term output of all the plants would be four times that of the first two.

“It’s our expectation we will see thousands of megawatts of solar energy sprouting on public lands,” he told reporters.

The announcement, which came shortly after the White House unveiled plans to install the latest generation of solar panels on the roof of its living quarters, reflects a need to enable solar manufacturers to break ground by the end of 2010 so they can share in soon-to-expire grants and loan guarantees for renewable energy.

Federal stimulus grants and federal loan guarantees could underwrite as much as hundreds of millions of dollars or more of the $2.1 billion Imperial Valley plant, said Janette Coates, a Tessera spokeswoman.

The decision also follows a long series of setbacks for climate and energy legislation in Congress. After passage of a House bill last year, efforts to advance a major emissions-reducing bill through the Senate collapsed over the summer for lack of votes linked to fears of a voter backlash.

In addition to the two plants approved Tuesday, projects that are poised to gain approval by the end of the year include BrightSource Energy’s proposed 370-megawatt Ivanpah facility, Tessera’s 850-megawatt Calico project, NextEra’s 250-megawatt Genesis Solar Energy Plant and Solar Millennium’s 1,000-megawatt Blythe project.

The next batch of approvals, Secretary Salazar said, “is something that is not months away.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/06/science/earth/06solar.html?hp

"When paper money systems begin to crack at the seams, the run to gold could be explosive."

Harry Browne

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September:

DJIA: +227 Down. NASDAQ: +321 Down. SP500: +221 Down.

The bull market (or bear market rally) that commenced on Nasdaq on 30/4/09 at 1717 has ended. (30/5/09 SP 500 at 919, 30/5/09 DJIA 8500.) While the indicators can flip flop at market turns, this action is rare on the slow monthly indicators. September is the fourth down month in a row.

Friday, 1 October 2010

A Wet Day in Wales.

Baltic Dry Index. 2446 -22
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $3,000.

Wales is the land of my fathers. And my fathers can have it.

Dylan Thomas.

We have reached another weekend, and a busy weekend too. Latvia holds parliamentary elections of Saturday with an austerity weary electorate likely to give a big boost to a pro-Moscow party. Brazil holds its Presidential election on Sunday. China takes today off for the start of Golden Week. Australia take Monday off for Labour Day. In Wales, America and Europe’s golfers discover why it’s not such a good idea to hold the Ryder Cup contest in wet and windy, beautiful Wales in October. With a little bit of luck though, it will help showcase modern Wales as a destination for tourism and establishing businesses. In Delhi India, the ready or unready Commonwealth Games get underway on Sunday and we wish the organizers and all taking part a successful event that does modern India proud. With bad timing in cricket mad India, the first in the current tour, India v Australia test match also starts this weekend. My guess is that all of them will stay warmer and drier than our American and European guests in Wales.

Later today, Dr. Ben Bernanke gets to address the unfortunately named, U.S.: Financial Stability Oversight Council. What financial stability? What oversight? A council of the three blind mice? Given the Doc’s disastrous track record, a record of misjudgment and error second only to that of fallen maestro Guru Greenspan, why would anyone care what Helicopter Ben has to say other than to bet the other way? Still even a stopped clock is right twice a day, and no one, not even wrong way Bernanke can have a 100% record of always being wrong, so perhaps this is the red letter day we get note in our diaries. All the same I’m sticking with gold and silver.

We open for the day with US tulips, sorry stocks, coming off their best September since 1939, when Europe’s new war promised boom times for America’s industries. This year the prospects don’t look anything like so good, but with the Fed conducting stealth back door quantitative easing and promising more front door QE as well to commence imminently, the unreal artificial Fed induced stock bubble continues to grow. It goes without saying that this too will probably end badly with the Fed loudly proclaiming to all that there was nothing they could do. At least they could plant tulips and sell the flowers or have I missed something important about a coming war?

When you can see the coast of Devon from Swansea it is going to rain. When you can't, it is raining already.

US stock markets enjoy best September for 71 years

Stock markets in the US enjoyed their biggest September rally since 1939 on Thursday despite falling on the day.

Published: 10:11PM BST 30 Sep 2010

The broader S&P 500 rose 8.8pc on the month and the Dow Jones was up 7.7pc.

The last time Wall Street saw a stronger September, when the Dow Jones soared 13.49pc , was at the start of the Second World War, when traders anticipated a strong rise in demand for US manufactured goods and war materials.

However, on Thursday the S&P 500 fell 3.53 to 1141.20 and the Dow dropped 47.23 to 10788.05 as new data on jobs and economic growth continued to indicate the economy was recovering at a slow pace.

Gross domestic product, which measures the output of goods and services in the US, increased at an annual rate of 1.7pc in the second quarter and the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell more than expected last week for the third time in four weeks.

Separately, the ISM-Chicago Business Survey rose in September to chalk up a full twelve months of expansion, showing an improvement in industrial activity in the key area.

Sentiment has been underpinned by solid company earnings, a spate of big corporate deals, poor returns from bonds as interest rates hovering around record lows, and hopes that the US Federal Reserve will step in if growth in the world's largest economy stalls.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/8035449/US-stock-markets-enjoy-best-September-for-71-years.html

Next, Ireland catapults itself over Greece in the race to be the first EU sovereign debt default. The ECB will just have to keep Ireland afloat until the German’s cry enough! Below, what happened after the last Leprechaun left twon.

If you ever go across the sea to Ireland,
Then maybe at the closing of your day,
You will sit and watch the moon rise over Claddagh,
And see the German Euro sink under Galway Bay
.

Ireland's love affair with masochism

Last updated: September 30th, 2010

A more shocking set of numbers is hard to imagine. The latest bailout package for Ireland’s insolvent banks will raise the nation’s budget deficit from an already alarmingly high 12 per cent to a jaw dropping 32 per cent, which will in turn send overall public debt spiralling upwards to just shy of 100 per cent of GDP. Only a few years back, Ireland had one of the best public debt to GDP ratios in the eurozone at under 25 per cent. The scale of the deterioration is truly astonishing, and vivid illustration of the degree to which Ireland’s “tiger economy” was built on the sand of misallocated credit.

It seems almost perverse to start looking for good news amidst all this devastation, but as in the aftermath of an earthquake, it is the triumph of hope over despair which always provides the more uplifting story. The good news for Ireland is that these latest bailouts have the potential to draw a line in the sand, and provide a grounding from which the economy can rebuild.

The other piece of good news to take from all this destruction is that Ireland has already fully funded itself until the middle of next year. Spreads on Irish debt are still painfully high, but the finance minister Brian Lenihan has at least bought a little time to sort out the mess. He can but hope that by the time he comes to tap markets again things will be on the mend and that bond investors will therefore look on his demands a little more sympathetically. Mr Lenihan promises to reduce the deficit to 3 per cent of GDP by 2014.

Even so, there are plenty of reasons for fearing a less happy outcome. Ireland’s nascent economic recovery stalled in the second quarter, when output shrunk by an annualised 1.2 per cent. With even more austerity set to be piled on top of what’s already been announced, there must be some doubt over whether Ireland can grow its way back to health.

The danger is of a vicious cycle of decline where more cuts prompt a further economic contraction, which in turn causes further bad debts in the banking sector, renewed collapse in the tax base, and therefore an ever wider deficit. Stuck with a monetary policy which is essentially set to suit German needs, Ireland could be condemned to a semi-permanent deflationary funk.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100007882/irelands-love-affair-with-masochism/

We close for today’s travel shortened update with a good news story that just might be what lifts the west’s economies up to a better future 2014 onwards. Lately there has been a furry of technological breakthroughs in solar power, renewable energy and in e-mobility. I think that we are at the dawn of the second age of electricity. While it doesn’t do a lot for us in 2010-2012, thereafter I think our future looks brighter as we learn to use our resources more efficiently, less pollutingly, and more sustainably. Below, Jaguar and Bladon Jets, unveil a pretty interesting test bed EV car.

And the latest news from the Glamorgan county cricket ground at St. Helen's in Swansea: Two and a half inches of rain have fallen for seven runs.

Paris Motor Show 2010: Jaguar creates electric supercar with jet engine

Jaguar has made a radical step forward in the development of electric cars and provided a glimpse into its future by producing a supercar capable of speeds over 200mph.

By Graham Ruddick Published: 6:55AM BST 30 Sep 2010

The Daily Telegraph can today reveal the first images of the C-X75 concept car, which has a top speed of 205mph, making it the fastest ever electric road car.

The C-X75, which will be officially unveiled at the Paris motor show today, can also travel for 560 miles without needing to be recharged through a plug – significantly further than the current industry peak of around 100 miles – because of a gas turbine system designed by a British engineer.

The gas turbine technology from Bladon Jets, which is based in Shropshire, recharge the battery beyond its basic range and provides extra power to the four electric motors driving the wheels.

Ralf Speth, chief executive of Jaguar Land Rover, said: “The C-X75 demonstrates that Jaguar is still leading the field automotive design and technology. And will always continue to build beautiful, fast cars."

The gas turbines on the car need to be refueled, meaning the car essentially uses hybrid technology. However, it is classed as an electric car because it is driven by electric motors and there is no petrol engine.

More.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/motor-shows/paris-motor-show/8033781/Paris-Motor-Show-2010-Jaguar-creates-electric-supercar-with-jet-engine.html

Bladon Jets.

http://www.bladonjets.com/

A certain political appointment once lay between a Welsh and a Scottish M.P.

An Englishman was asked who he thought should get the job.

'Well,' he replied, 'if we get the Welshman he'll pray on his knees on Sundays and on his neighbours the rest of the week.

If we get the Scotsman he'll keep the Sabbath and anything else he can lay his hands on.'

At the Comex silver depositories Thursday, final figures were: Registered 53.88 Moz, Eligible 57.19 Moz, Total 111.07 Moz.

+++++

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, the news from Europe is all bad.

European Manufacturing Cools, Export Orders Weaken

Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Growth in Europe’s manufacturing industry slowed in September and export orders weakened as a cooling global recovery restrained demand.

A gauge of manufacturing in the 16-nation euro region declined to 53.7 from 55.1 the previous month, London-based Markit Economics said today. That compares with an initial estimate of 53.6 released on Sept. 23. It’s the 12th straight month with a reading above 50, indicating expansion.

Europe’s economy is cooling after growth accelerated to the fastest pace in four years in the second quarter. The European Commission sees a more “moderate” expansion in the second half as unemployment close to a 12-year high hobbles consumer spending and governments step up austerity measures to reduce budget deficits.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_iNu0sRTMq4&pos=5

Swiss Tax Treaty With Germany May Finish Bank Secrecy in Europe

Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Switzerland’s tax treaty with Germany may finish banking secrecy in Europe and prompt withdrawals as Swiss banks will no longer guarantee client confidentiality.

The treaty will allow investigators to request Swiss assistance in tracking down undeclared money deposited by German nationals, said Eric Jucker, a Zurich-based tax lawyer. It probably will be signed this month by Swiss Finance Minister Hans-Rudolf Merz and his German counterpart Wolfgang Schaeuble.

“The agreement that will come into force will go very much further on the information that can be exchanged between officials,” Jucker said. “Banking secrecy will come to an end outside of Switzerland” as the country adopts international tax standards, he said.

Germans are the biggest clients of Swiss money managers with assets of about 260 billion francs ($264 billion), according to estimates from Geneva-based broker Helvea. Swiss banks, including Julius Baer Group Ltd. and Bank Sarasin & Cie., are now setting up branches around Europe to retain cross-border clients.

The German accord follows standards set out in Switzerland’s agreement with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in March 2009 after the country was threatened with being blacklisted as a tax haven. It will spell out circumstances under which Switzerland will give Germany “administrative assistance” in cases where there is evidence of tax evasion, said Mario Tuor, a spokesman for the Swiss State Secretariat for International Financial Matters in Bern.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5kWoTlMi31Q&pos=3

I hear Evan Morgan broke the world 100 metre record wearing mining boots."

"How did he manage that?"

"He fell down the shaft."

Have a great weekend everyone, whatever pastime you’re up to or sport you’re following. Check with the blog ofr the weekend update.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September:

DJIA: +227 Down. NASDAQ: +321 Down. SP500: +221 Down.

The bull market (or bear market rally) that commenced on Nasdaq on 30/4/09 at 1717 has ended. (30/5/09 SP 500 at 919, 30/5/09 DJIA 8500.) While the indicators can flip flop at market turns, this action is rare on the slow monthly indicators. September is the fourth down month in a row.

Friday, 10 September 2010

The Sickest Bankster Joke Yet.

Baltic Dry Index. 2975 +57
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $3,000.

The World Trade Center opened in 1970 after 8 years of construction.

For more on the sickest great vampire squid joke yet, scroll down to “Crooks and Scoundrel’s Corner”. God’s workers are about to peddle municipal bonds to the great unsophisticated hoi polloi. When the man from Goldie calls hang up. If they want out, do you really want in?

Sixteen blocks were cleared to house the completed WTC.

We open this Friday before the 9th anniversary of the Moslem fanatic atrocity of 9/11 in America, with the OECD saying the slowdown in the west is worse than forecast. Wait for later revisions to show just how much worse.

The excavation work displaced enough soil to create Liberty Park, where four 60-floor towers and four apartment buildings were constructed.

World slowdown steeper than anticipated: OECD

Sept. 9, 2010, 5:29 a.m. EDT

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The slowdown in the global economic recovery is "somewhat more pronounced than previously anticipated," said Pier Carlo Padoan, chief economist at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development on Thursday. In prepared remarks accompanying the release of the organization's updated economic outlook in Paris, Padoan said it isn't clear whether the loss of momentum is temporary or whether it signals greater underlying weaknesses in private spending at a time when support from fiscal and monetary policy is being removed.

If the slowdown is temporary, it would be appropriate to delay the withdrawal of monetary stimulus "for a few months" while pressing ahead with fiscal deficit-reduction measures, Padoan said. If the slowdown reflects "longer-lasting forces bearing down on activity," however, additional monetary stimulus might be warranted in the form of quantitative easing and a commitment to near-zero policy interest rates for a longer period, he said, while also delaying fiscal consolidation where public finances permit

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/world-slowdown-steeper-than-anticipated-oecd-2010-09-09

Below, some $2.5 trillion in to the great 21st century bankster bailout, the USA has managed to add more to national debt than collectively all previous Presidents from Reagan all the way back to George Washington. Stay long precious metals. The Great Nixonian Error gets more bizarre by the week.

The WTC had 12 million square feet of space. Each floor was 50,000 square feet.

Obama Added More to National Debt in First 19 Months Than All Presidents from Washington Through Reagan Combined, Says Gov’t Data
Wednesday, September 08, 2010
By Terence P. Jeffrey, Editor-in-Chief

(CNSNews.com) - In the first 19 months of the Obama administration, the federal debt held by the public increased by $2.5260 trillion, which is more than the cumulative total of the national debt held by the public that was amassed by all U.S. presidents from George Washington through Ronald Reagan.
The U.S. Treasury Department divides the federal debt into two categories. One is “debt held by the public,” which includes U.S. government securities owned by individuals, corporations, state or local governments, foreign governments and other entities outside the federal government itself. The other is “intragovernmental” debt, which includes I.O.U.s the federal government gives to itself when, for example, the Treasury borrows money out of the Social Security “trust fund” to pay for expenses other than Social Security.


At the end of fiscal year 1989, which ended eight months after President Reagan left office, the total federal debt held by the public was $2.1907 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office. That means all U.S. presidents from George Washington through Ronald Reagan had accumulated only that much publicly held debt on behalf of American taxpayers. That is $335.3 billion less than the $2.5260 trillion that was added to the federal debt held by the public just between Jan. 20, 2009, when President Obama was inaugurated, and Aug. 20, 2010, the 19-month anniversary of Obama's inauguration.


By contrast, President Reagan was sworn into office on Jan. 20, 1981 and left office eight years later on Jan. 20, 1989. At the end of fiscal 1980, four months before Reagan was inaugurated, the federal debt held by the public was $711.9 billion, according to CBO. At the end of fiscal 1989, eight months after Reagan left office, the federal debt held by the public was $2.1907 trillion. That means that in the nine-fiscal-year period of 1980-89--which included all of Reagan’s eight years in office--the federal debt held by the public increased $1.4788 trillion. That is in excess of a trillion dollars less than the $2.5260 increase in the debt held by the public during Obama’s first 19 months

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/72404

Back across the Atlantic in the home of the overpaid maladroit English World Cup football team, the stealth devaluation has gone off the rails. Despite the BOE dropping the Pound from $2.10 to $1.50, the devaluation has all gone horribly wrong in Europe’s second largest economy. Worryingly, Germany, Europe’s largest economy, now seems to be slowing as well. Pretty soon we’ll all be in Club Med but with Iceland’s weather.

The towers were different heights. The South tower was 1,362 feet tall, and big brother North tower was 1,368.

U.K. Trade Deficit Widens to Record as Imports Surge

By Jennifer Ryan

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K.’s trade deficit widened to a record in July as purchases of chemicals and oil drove imports to the highest level in two years.

The goods-trade gap widened to 8.7 billion pounds ($13.4 billion) from 7.5 billion pounds and June, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The median of 13 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 7.5 billion-pound deficit. Exports fell 0.9 percent and imports rose 3.1 percent

----The Bank of England today left its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent and its bond stimulus plan at 200 billion pounds.

“The figures are a disappointment,” Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec Securities in London, said in a telephone interview. “Overall the great rebalancing of the U.K. economy has yet to happen. The bank will be frustrated that the long- awaited upturn in export growth simply hasn’t happened.”

-----The trade deficit in oil swelled to 649 million pounds, the most in two years. Imports from non-European Union nations reached 15.6 billion pounds in July, a record high.

While the jump in imports may signal strength in domestic demand, weakening exports suggest the economy is failing to benefit from the weakness of the pound, which has fallen by a about a fifth on a trade-weighted basis since the start of 2007.

Abingdon, England-based PV Crystalox Solar Plc, a maker of silicon wafers, said Aug. 19 first-half net income fell 59 percent as average wafer prices fell about 40 percent from a year earlier. Chief Executive Officer Iain Dorrity said the company is working to build up business in Asia.

German economic data published yesterday also showed exports fell and industrial production rose less than economists forecast in July, suggesting the recovery in Europe’s largest economy is moderating. The German economy expanded at the fastest pace in two decades in the second quarter, boosted by exports.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aOTZh4ao5C5s

Yesterday we covered Norway’s big sovereign wealth fund bet on the tax and work shy Greeks. Whatever were they thinking, they might as well have bet on England or France winning the World Cup! We end for the day with the ever entertaining Michael Lewis visiting Greece. Many thanks to Morris in NYC for sending the article along. The whole 7 page article will make for great weekend reading.

The steel inside the WTC could have made three more Brooklyn Bridges.

Beware of Greeks Bearing Bonds

By Michael Lewis October 1, 2010

As Wall Street hangs on the question “Will Greece default?,” the author heads for riot-stricken Athens, and for the mysterious Vatopaidi monastery, which brought down the last government, laying bare the country’s economic insanity. But beyond a $1.2 trillion debt (roughly a quarter-million dollars for each working adult), there is a more frightening deficit. After systematically looting their own treasury, in a breathtaking binge of tax evasion, bribery, and creative accounting spurred on by Goldman Sachs, Greeks are sure of one thing: they can’t trust their fellow Greeks.

-----I was there for money. The tsunami of cheap credit that rolled across the planet between 2002 and 2007 has just now created a new opportunity for travel: financial-disaster tourism. The credit wasn’t just money, it was temptation. It offered entire societies the chance to reveal aspects of their characters they could not normally afford to indulge. Entire countries were told, “The lights are out, you can do whatever you want to do and no one will ever know.” What they wanted to do with money in the dark varied. Americans wanted to own homes far larger than they could afford, and to allow the strong to exploit the weak. Icelanders wanted to stop fishing and become investment bankers, and to allow their alpha males to reveal a theretofore suppressed megalomania. The Germans wanted to be even more German; the Irish wanted to stop being Irish. All these different societies were touched by the same event, but each responded to it in its own peculiar way. No response was as peculiar as the Greeks’, however: anyone who had spent even a few days talking to people in charge of the place could see that. But to see just how peculiar it was, you had to come to this monastery.

-----Moody’s, the ratings agency, had just lowered Greece’s credit rating to the level that turned all Greek government bonds into junk—and so no longer eligible to be owned by many of the investors who currently owned them. The resulting dumping of Greek bonds onto the market was, in the short term, no big deal, because the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank had between them agreed to lend Greece—a nation of about 11 million people, or two million fewer than Greater Los Angeles—up to $145 billion. In the short term Greece had been removed from the free financial markets and become a ward of other states.

-----That was the good news. The long-term picture was far bleaker. In addition to its roughly $400 billion (and growing) of outstanding government debt, the Greek number crunchers had just figured out that their government owed another $800 billion or more in pensions. Add it all up and you got about $1.2 trillion, or more than a quarter-million dollars for every working Greek. Against $1.2 trillion in debts, a $145 billion bailout was clearly more of a gesture than a solution.

-----As it turned out, what the Greeks wanted to do, once the lights went out and they were alone in the dark with a pile of borrowed money, was turn their government into a piñata stuffed with fantastic sums and give as many citizens as possible a whack at it. In just the past decade the wage bill of the Greek public sector has doubled, in real terms—and that number doesn’t take into account the bribes collected by public officials. The average government job pays almost three times the average private-sector job. The national railroad has annual revenues of 100 million euros against an annual wage bill of 400 million, plus 300 million euros in other expenses. The average state railroad employee earns 65,000 euros a year.

-----The Greek public-school system is the site of breathtaking inefficiency: one of the lowest-ranked systems in Europe, it nonetheless employs four times as many teachers per pupil as the highest-ranked, Finland’s.

-----Where waste ends and theft begins almost doesn’t matter; the one masks and thus enables the other. It’s simply assumed, for instance, that anyone who is working for the government is meant to be bribed.

-----Oddly enough, the financiers in Greece remain more or less beyond reproach. They never ceased to be anything but sleepy old commercial bankers. Virtually alone among Europe’s bankers, they did not buy U.S. subprime-backed bonds, or leverage themselves to the hilt, or pay themselves huge sums of money. The biggest problem the banks had was that they had lent roughly 30 billion euros to the Greek government—where it was stolen or squandered. In Greece the banks didn’t sink the country. The country sank the banks.

-----At the dark and narrow entrance to the Ministry of Finance a small crowd of security guards screen you as you enter—then don’t bother to check and see why you set off the metal detector. In the minister’s antechamber six ladies, all on their feet, arrange his schedule. They seem frantic and harried and overworked … and yet he still runs late. The place generally seems as if even its better days weren’t so great. The furniture is worn, the floor linoleum. The most striking thing about it is how many people it employs.

Much more.

http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2010/10/greeks-bearing-bonds-201010?currentPage=1

We end for the day with China, China’s top “diplomat” at the UN to be exact. Next posting Mongolia probably.

The buildings housed 49,000 tons of air-conditioning equipment.

China's UN diplomat in drunken rant against Americans

China's top-ranking UN diplomat embarked on a drunken rant against the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, telling his boss he'd "never liked" him, and adding for good measure that he didn't like Americans either.

Peter Foster in Beijing Published: 11:42AM BST 09 Sep 2010

The outburst by Sha Zukang at a retreat for top UN officials in the Austrian ski resort of Alpbach left senior UN officials cringing in embarrassment as others tried to convince him to put down the microphone, according to Washington-based Foreign Policy magazine.

"I know you never liked me Mr. Secretary-General – well, I never liked you, either," said Mr Sha as Mr Ban looked on, smiling and nodding awkwardly during the 15-minute toast attended by the UN's top brass.

Mr Sha, who was appointed the UN undersecretary general for Economic and Social Affairs in 2007, also made no secret of his fractious relationship with Mr Ban, although did say he'd grown to respect the South Korean.

"You've been trying to get rid of me," said 62-year-old Mr Sha according to the senior UN official present, "You can fire me anytime, you can fire me today."

Later in his impromptu speech Mr Sha turned to an American colleague, singling out Bob Orr, from the executive office of the secretary-general.

"I really don't like him: he's an American and I really don't like Americans," he said.

A second senior UN official who was at the dinner said: "It went on for about ten or fifteen minutes but it felt like an hour."

Officials present at the dinner suggested that Mr Sha might have been the victim of a misguided attempt at humour.

The next morning Mr Sha requested a meeting with Mr Ban during which he was "deeply apologetic" according to Farhan Haq, the acting deputy UN spokesman.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/7991414/Chinas-UN-diplomat-in-drunken-rant-against-Americans.html

On a clear day, it was possible to see for 45 miles in every direction from the observation deck.

At the Comex silver depositories Thursday, final figures were: Registered 54.12 Moz, Eligible 57.12 Moz, Total 111.24 Moz.

+++++

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

We end for the day with the sickest NY bankster joke of the year so far. My thanks to Ed in Chicago for sending it along. When Goldman calls hang up. Below, the Journal on Ebenezer Squid’s move into municipal bonds! If Ebenezer’s selling, do you really think it’s right to be buying? Sensing the coming US municipal collapse and debacle, Goldie is about to take opportunity to dump the increasingly bankrupt municipality "triple-A bonds" on the unsuspecting dhimmis of Main Street America. Has any Squid in Goldie called Narvik yet? This is so sad and funny at the same time, it’s a Wall Street classic. Any chance that they will short against the munis they peddle? Naw, they wouldn’t do that would they? Ebenezer is laughing all the way to the Federal Reserve bank Goldie already owns.

The most famous man to scale the outside of the building was George Willig - who was arrested at the top. Mr. Willig was fined one penny for each of the 110 floors he scaled.

I had the privilege of watching Mr. Willig from my corner office.

SEPTEMBER 8, 2010

Goldman in Bond Deal

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is about to start selling municipal bonds directly to mom and pop.

The New York company plans to enter a partnership this week with Chicago securities firm Incapital LLC to sell bonds issued by U.S. states, cities and towns to individual investors, according to a person familiar with the situation.

The arrangement will make billions of dollars of municipal bonds underwritten by Goldman available for sale by at least 85,000 brokers in Incapital's distribution network of broker-dealer firms.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703720004575478151808425876.html

How Narvik was fooled into investing in CDOs

How Narvik, Norway, a small town near the Arctic circle, was fooled into investing in Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs). From CNBC’s “CNBC,” original air date, February 12, 2009.

http://blog.norway.com/2009/07/13/narvik-fooled-into-investing-in-dcos/

"As soon as the coin in the coffer rings, the soul from purgatory springs."

Another weekend, and if Pastor Terry Jones in Florida doesn’t set off World War 3 on the 9th anniversary of the atrocity of the World Trade Center, we will all be fortunate indeed. The on again-off again threatened US war with Iran over nukes, seems to be off again for the moment. Replaced by a man who no one had ever heard of, determined to set off a US lead war against the whole Moslem world. Only in America as they say. As religious protests go, I suppose this is Florida’s sun baked travesty of the 95 Theses on the door of All Saints Church. Most countries have sensible laws against deliberately setting off religious or race wars. In Europe the result of too many wars over the centuries, and the still fresh memory of the Godless psychopaths Stalin and Hitler. Whatever happens tomorrow, we can only hope that God lets saner heads prevail. Tomorrow we remember the dead of 9/11. May God give comfort to their families and friends. Have a great weekend everyone.

"Why does the pope, whose wealth today is greater than the wealth of the richest Crassus, build the basilica of St. Peter with the money of poor believers rather than with his own money?"

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August:

DJIA: +243 Down. NASDAQ: +366 Down. SP500: +243 Down.

The bull market (or bear market rally) that commenced on Nasdaq on 30/4/09 at 1717 has ended. (30/5/09 SP 500 at 919, 30/5/09 DJIA 8500.) While the indicators can flip flop at market turns, this action is rare on the slow monthly indicators. August is the third down month in a row and “crash season” approaches.

Help the LIR fight Banksterism, the EU, and for sound money.

If you can, help the LIR stay around and make a difference. Please make a donation at the PayPal link on the website or better still become a sponsor for what looks like an exciting 2010. Capitalism not banksterism. Many thanks to all who have helped. Anyone heard from Hindenburg?

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Sunspots – A 22 year colder world? (From 2004?)

Spotless Days Sep 08
Current Stretch:1 days

2010 total: 39 days (16%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Since 2004: 808 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days

http://www.spaceweather.com/

Thursday, 9 September 2010

Norway Rolls the Dice.

Baltic Dry Index. 2975 +57
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $3,000.

Fresh food only began appearing on dinner tables in the 1700s, with the advent of the cooking stove - and stoves were not for everyone until the beginning of this century.

Norway’s Foods.

We open this morning with Norway’s sovereign wealth fund rolling the dice with purchases of the EU’s increasingly dodgy Club Med debt. Below, Bloomberg covers Norway’s audacious purchase of Greek government debt. Depending on how much of the iffy paper they bought, Norway might now have more to lose in Greece than the tax and work shy Greeks themselves. In this iteration of Euro madness, Greeks dodge taxes and bury their money in Switzerland and Cyprus and just about any other place but Greece. Norwegian’s work hard and pile up dollars in the country’s sovereign wealth fund, where the gamblers, sorry managers, set off to chase yield in what looks to me like a game of Russian roulette with the European Central Bank. Dare the ECB now allow Greece to default and restructure its debt, after brave Norway has just stepped in to help the ECB prop up the Greeks? To me in far away London, it looks like the Greeks were just dealt a get out of austerity jail card by Norway. Does Norway’s SWF have any back door guarantee from the ECB?

"Economics is an entire scientific discipline of not knowing what you're talking about."

P. J. O Rourke.

Norway Buys Greek Debt as Sovereign Wealth Fund Sees No Default

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Norway, which has amassed the world’s second-biggest sovereign wealth fund, says Greece won’t default on its debts.

The Nordic nation’s $450 billion Government Pension Fund Global has stocked up on Greek debt, as well as bonds of Spain, Italy and Portugal. Finance Minister Sigbjoern Johnsen says he backs the strategy, which contributed to a 3.4 percent loss on European fixed income in the second quarter, compared with gains on bonds in Asia and the Americas.

“The point is, do you expect these guys to default?” said Harvinder Sian, senior fixed-income strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, in an interview. “Norway has taken the view that they will not. The Greek holdings are particularly interesting because the consensus in the market is that they will at some point restructure or default.”

Norway says its long-term perspective will protect it from losses. “One could say we are investing for infinity,” Johnsen said in an Aug. 27 interview.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKkAnJYH0Ey4&pos=1

Cod tongues are a popular dish in the northern Norwegian kitchen. They are prepared in many ways - poached, sautéed and fried.

Staying with Europe, if Great Britain can be described as being in Europe, The BOE’s King is getting ready to embark on QE2. Another sneaky stealth devaluation is coming up, as the Pound heads to eventual parity with the dodgy dollar. Look for the UK’s exports and tourism to boom next year. Below, for now the Old bag Lady of Threadneedle Street, seems to be attempting to talk the fiat Pound lower.

Industrialization came to England but has since left.

P. J. O Rourke.

BOE Mulls ‘Second Wave’ of Bond Buying as Rebound Momentum Ebbs

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of England Governor Mervyn King may have to embark on a new round of bond purchases as Britain’s rebound from the worst recession since World War II fades.

Manufacturing, services and construction all faltered in August and the housing market weakened, surveys showed last week. That suggests 200 billion pounds ($309 billion) in bond purchases by the central bank since March 2009 and record-low interest rates may not be enough to keep up the economy’s momentum in the deepest budget squeeze in more than six decades.

“They are more likely to loosen policy further before they tighten it,” Alan Clarke, an economist at BNP Paribas in London, said in a telephone interview. “The danger is acting too late and not soon enough.”

Bank of England policy makers have discussed expanding the bond-purchase policy over the past two months. While officials say it has aided growth by shaving 1 percentage point off government bond yields, it has so far failed to ramp up the flow of credit in the economy.

Clarke predicts the bank’s nine-member Monetary Policy Committee will agree to a “second wave” of stimulus in February. Ross Walker at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc says the chances of it happening in early 2011 are as high as 40 percent. None of the 31 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast an expansion of stimulus after the bank’s policy decision at noon today in London.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPKmcBFClPTQ

Below, what the fraud of bailing out banksters by zero interest rates really mean. In the Great Nixonian Error of fiat currencies, sanity gets turned upside down, gamblers and banksters thrive, and if you’re close enough to the central bank your gambling losses get picked up by the state. Is deficits don’t matter great, or what?

Falling Rates Aid Debtors, but Hamper Savers

By GRAHAM BOWLEY Published: September 8, 2010

Households and corporations alike are refinancing their loans in droves to take advantage of interest rates that seem impossibly cheap. But those same low rates come with a flip side, driving down the income of retirees and others who live off their savings.

It is a side effect of a government policy meant to push down interest rates to a point that businesses and consumers are compelled to borrow and spend again, and yet it is hurting anyone with a savings account.

With the regulated rate that financial institutions can borrow from one another at almost zero, banks are paying savers next to nothing. The average returns on interest-bearing deposit accounts slipped to 0.99 percent in July, according to Market Rates Insight, which tracks bank rates. It is the first time its measure has dipped below 1 percent since the 1950s, when its data begins.

As a result, the amount of money on deposit at United States bank branches fell during the first half of 2010, Market Rates Insight reported this week. It was the first time that had happened in nearly two decades, indicating that people are dissatisfied with how little interest they are earning from their bank accounts.

Perversely, coming after a devastating financial crisis caused by companies and households that feasted on borrowing, ultralow interest rates are penalizing people who have paid down their debt and are now trying to save. It is also punishing those who rely on the proceeds of their nest eggs to pay the bills.

“It’s the whole point of low rates, to entice borrowing and discourage saving, but it means a massive wealth transfer from savers to borrowers,” said Greg McBride, a senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com. “It is a trend on steroids now because interest rates have been cut to the bone.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/09/business/economy/09rates.html

Norwegian Sheephead (smalahove)

Singe the head. Do not flay. Split lengthwise and soak in cold water at least 24 hours, changing the water several times. Make the brine by combining the ingredients and bringing to a boil. Dry the head well, then soak in brine up to 72 hours.


Smoke, the dry head. Simmer the head in water until tender, about 50 minutes.
Serve ½ head per person.

At the Comex silver depositories Wednesday, final figures were: Registered 54.12 Moz, Eligible 57.12 Moz, Total 111.24 Moz.

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Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, BP says yes we did it, we blew up the Deepwater Horizon, but we had some of the finest most incompetent help money could buy in the oil industry. Below, The Telegraph covers the report and the likely long term results. As soon as the G-6 recover and join Germany and Asia booming, get ready for $200 oil.

I like to do my principal research in bars, where people are more likely to tell the truth or, at least, lie less convincingly than they do in briefings and books.

P. J. O Rourke.

BP oil spill: after the human cost will come the cost of safer oil production

First the nine minutes of terror. The dry technical language and presentation of BP's accident report cannot be allowed to obscure the horror and tragedy of what happened on the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig on the evening of April 20.

By Damian Reece, Head of Business Published: 6:00AM BST 09 Sep 2010

-------But exactly how did a relatively routine procedure for mothballing a well turn into a fatal disaster?

It's clear from BP's version of events, published yesterday, that what could have gone wrong did go wrong. It includes a faulty cement plug, a failed mechanical barrier, misinterpreted pressure tests by workers and unnoticed flows of oil and gas into the pipe. But once a problem had been spotted the response on the rig failed to regain control. Crucial mistakes were made when diverting the lethal fluids into an entirely inadequate mud and gas separating unit on board the rig, instead of overboard, escalating the dangers and allowing gas to envelop the platform. Once escaped onboard, the rig's fire prevention system failed to stop the gas reaching the engines making ignition inevitable.

Finally the blow out preventer, the piece of kit designed to seal the well on the sea floor, failed leading to those weeks of underwater spillage and environmental damage.

But who's to blame?

BP seems to put a tentative hand up in the 200 pages or more of its report but at the same time points a sharp finger very much in the direction of Halliburton and Transocean which operated elements of the rig alongside BP.

If we take the blow out preventer, arguably the most controversial failure allowing such dramatic amounts of oil to gush unfetterred into the Gulf, then it's Transocean which is to blame, according to BP. This report, while significant in improving our understanding of what happened that day, is really BP saying one thing to Haliburton and Transocean, its partners. "If we're going down, you're going down with us."

It is just the first salvo in what will be a long and tortuous legal process as the companies involved argue about how the bill for this disaster will be split.

---- It makes a series of recommendations which BP says it will be adopting. However, it's hard to see how any exploration and production company operating not just in US territory, but across the world, will avoid following suit. The recommendations may be about improving procedures, safety and competence but will be burdensome all the same.

----- While the price of oil will remain determined by many factors, the implementation of new drilling procedures, post Deepwater Horizon, will play a much greater part in applying upward pressure to oil prices.

But it's also entirely plausible that as a result of Deepwater Horizon companies, such as BP, will take a long hard look at the rationale for exploiting such technologically challenging deep water finds as the Gulf of Mexico.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/7990476/BP-oil-spill-after-the-human-cost-will-come-the-cost-of-safer-oil-production.html

"If you imagine the 4,500-bilion-odd years of Earth's history compressed into a normal earthly day, then life begins very early, about 4 A.M., with the rise of the first simple, single-celled organisms, but then advances no further for the next sixteen hours.

----- Humans emerge one minute and seventeen seconds before midnight. The whole of our recorded history, on this scale, would be no more than a few seconds, a single human lifetime barely an instant. Throughout this greatly speeded-up day continents slide about and bang together at a clip that seems positively reckless. Mountains rise and melt away, ocean basins come and go, ice sheets advance and withdraw. And throughout the whole, about three times every minute, somewhere on the planet there is a flash-bulb pop of light marking the impact of a Mansion-sized meteor or one even larger. It's a wonder that anything at all can survive in such a pummeled and unsettled environment. In fact, not many things do for long."

Bill Bryson. A Short History of Nearly Everything

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August:

DJIA: +243 Down. NASDAQ: +366 Down. SP500: +243 Down.

The bull market (or bear market rally) that commenced on Nasdaq on 30/4/09 at 1717 has ended. (30/5/09 SP 500 at 919, 30/5/09 DJIA 8500.) While the indicators can flip flop at market turns, this action is rare on the slow monthly indicators. August is the third down month in a row and “crash season” approaches.