Showing posts with label Japan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Japan. Show all posts

Friday, 8 October 2010

Japan Panics.

Baltic Dry Index. 2662 +23
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $3,000.

"If ever there was an area in which to do the exact opposite of that which government and the media urge you to do, that area is the purchasing of gold."

Robert Ringer

After a failed attempt at currency manipulation last week, Japan’s government appears to be panicking. Below the latest news from the land of the setting sun. Another 5 trillion yen is to be poured down the same rat hole that’s swallowed countless trillion yen over the last two decades, all so far in a futile attempt at rebuilding the golden decade of the 1980s bubble economy. An eerie trailer for the US economy to come? Not too worry, it’s only fiat yen and there’s plenty more where that comes from.

"The first requisite of a sound monetary system is that it put the least possible power over the quantity or quality of money in the hands of the politicians."

Henry Hazlitt

Japanese Cabinet OKs $61 Billion Economic Stimulus

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS Published: October 7, 2010

TOKYO (AP) — Japan's Cabinet on Friday approved 5.05 trillion yen ($61 billion) in new economic stimulus, the latest in a string of measures to shore up the country's lethargic economy that has been battered by a surging yen.

The plan also called for funding to secure rare earths needed for Japan's advanced manufacturing after China last month imposed a de facto export ban on the minerals amid a territorial dispute between the two Asian giants.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan's new package aims to boost Japan's gross domestic product by 0.6 percentage points, create or save up to 500,000 jobs and take other steps to help small and medium sized businesses.

It comes just days after the central bank cut its key interest rate to virtually zero. Last month, the Bank of Japan also intervened in the currency market in what appears to have been a fruitless attempt to rein in the strong yen — which hit another 15-year high against the dollar this week.

Exports are down, factory output is falling and Japan continues to struggle with deflation, a situation in which falling prices can drag on corporate profits, paychecks and the overall economy. The yen's spike, meanwhile, erodes overseas earnings for major exporters like Toyota Motor Corp. and Canon Inc.

Kan, who came to power just four months ago and survived a leadership challenge from within his party in September, has been under heavy political pressure to produce a tangible path to recovery for Japan's economy.

The massive new package, to be submitted this month to parliament for approval, follows 915 billion yen ($11 billion) in measures that Kan's government unveiled last month.

More.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2010/10/07/business/global/AP-AS-Japan-Economy.html

Staying with Asia, China OKs listing the yuan for electronic trading. Another small step towards making the yuan fully convertible. In another age, the big loser would be next door Japan’s yen. But this is not that other gentler, kinder, age, the early age when having just made the dollar a fiat currency, and with it every other currency on the planet which was linked to it by the 1944 Breton Woods Agreement, the fiat currency age of capitalism before casino capitalism and banksterism took over, displacing commerce and industry, replaced by insane derivatives gambling backed up by too big to fail, central bank crony bailouts. Still, the yuan will never become the world’s fiat currency replacing the failing US dollar. There’s absolutely no reason to think that China’s politicians would run a fiat yuan reserve currency any better than American politicians ran theirs.

"The history of paper money is an account of abuse, mismanagement, and financial disaster."

Richard M. Ebeling

OCTOBER 7, 2010

Yuan Goes Electronic In Global Market Bid

BEIJING—The Chinese yuan is going electronic, a sign of the growing interest generated by China's experiment in liberalizing offshore use of its currency.

ICAP PLC and Thomson Reuters Corp., which began allowing the yuan to trade on their electronic-trading platforms last week, said they are in discussions with banks in the U.S. and Europe about using the new systems. Neither company would identify the banks, but ICAP has handled several yuan trades a day that average roughly $2 million.

It is a small start, and the trading is limited to the relatively small pool of yuan circulating in Hong Kong. Still, the advent of electronic trading of the yuan and its likely expansion to traders beyond Hong Kong mark an important toward building the infrastructure to support a global market for the currency.

China's government has made a series of moves in the past year to encourage the yuan's use outside China, an effort to become less dependent on the dollar for trade and investment. The moves are allowing pools of yuan to accumulate in bank accounts outside of China, particularly Hong Kong.

Hong Kong banks have been trading the currency among themselves, but through over-the-counter trades where the banks contact each other directly or through brokers. The entry of companies such as ICAP and Thomson Reuters means that prices and trading amounts will be posted openly.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704011904575537754269611906.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hpp_LEFTTopWhatNews#articleTabs%3Darticle

As power shifts from the west to east, thanks to President Nixon’s deranged adoption of fiat reserve currency and financial casino gambling, Gallup reports on the new reality in the USA, facing all not in an industry that’s a friend of the Fed. Is it any wonder that there’s revolution coming in America’s ballot boxes this November.

"With the exception only of the period of the gold standard, practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue money to defraud and plunder the people."

F.A. von Hayek

October 7, 2010

Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment at 10.1% in September

Underemployment, at 18.8%, is up from 18.6% at the end of August

by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist

PRINCETON, NJ -- Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 10.1% in September -- up sharply from 9.3% in August and 8.9% in July. Much of this increase came during the second half of the month -- the unemployment rate was 9.4% in mid-September -- and therefore is unlikely to be picked up in the government's unemployment report on Friday.

Gallop Employment

Next, the run to gold has belatedly started and is being promoted by the bailed out banksters. They can see the end of fiat currency arriving this decade too.

"As fewer and fewer people have confidence in paper as a store of value, the price of gold will continue to rise."

Jerome F. Smith

Super-rich buy gold by the ton

The world's wealthiest people have responded to economic worries by buying gold by the bar by the ton.

Published: 8:07AM BST 05 Oct 2010

The world's wealthiest people have responded to economic worries by buying gold by the bar - and sometimes by the ton - and by moving assets out of the financial system, bankers catering to the very rich told Reuters, the news agency.

Fears of a double-dip downturn have boosted the appetite for physical bullion as well as for mining company shares and exchange-traded funds, UBS executive Josef Stadler told the Reuters Global Private Banking Summit.

They don't only buy ETFs or futures; they buy physical gold," said Stadler, who runs the Swiss bank's services for clients with assets of at least $50 million to invest.

UBS is recommending top-tier clients hold 7-10 percent of their assets in precious metals like gold, which is on course for its tenth consecutive yearly gain and traded at around $1,314.50 an ounce on Monday, near the record level reached last week.

"We had a clear example of a couple buying over a ton of gold ... and carrying it to another place," Stadler said. At today's prices, that shipment would be worth about $42 million.

Julius Baer's chief investment officer for Asia is also recommending that wealthy investors park some of their assets in gold as a defensive stance following a string of lackluster U.S. data and amid concerns about currency weakness.

"I see gold as an insurance," Van Anantha-Nageswaran told Reuters. "I recommend 10 percent as minimum in portfolios and anything more than that to be used for trading purposes, to respond to short-term over-bought or over-sold signals."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/8042968/Super-rich-buy-gold-by-the-ton.html

Below, one of the reasons the rich and anyone else with some sense are buying gold. The fiat money system finally went bust in 2008, we are just not yet prepared to admit it and that to reform the system, we need to write off globally multi trillions of non performing, unrepayable debt.

"Someone must stand up to those who say, "Here's the key, there's the Treasury, just take as many of those hard-earned tax dollars as you want."

President Ronald Reagan

Iceland Banks May Be Asked to Forgive $2 Billion After Protests

Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Iceland’s banks may come under pressure to forgive about $2 billion in mortgage debt after protests this week prompted the government to consider proposals from the island’s homeowner protection group.

“The debt the banks have to write off could very well be very challenging for them,” said Economy Minister Arni Pall Arnason, in an interview in Reykjavik. “So be it. The banks have to acknowledge quickly that current debt levels are unrealistic and that timely write-offs are necessary. Full stop.”

The government is eager to show voters it is committed to reducing families’ debt burdens after the Oct. 4 unrest. The protests drew bigger crowds than in the weeks before former Prime Minister Geir H. Haarde’s administration was ousted in January 2009. The Interest Group of the Homes, which represents households demanding debt relief, says banks should write off about 200 billion kronur ($1.8 billion) in mortgage loans to help the 39 percent of homeowners who are technically insolvent.

Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir held emergency talks after the protests, in which about 8,000 demonstrators gathered to express their anger over rising homeowner insolvencies. Sigurdardottir said her government isn’t ruling anything out.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZG2npchHFCY&pos=7

"The London Banker Henry Fauntleroy forged to keep his bank solvent. He was executed for it in 1824."

Charles P. Kindleberger. Manias, Panics and Crashes.

At the Comex silver depositories Thursday, final figures were: Registered 52.25 Moz, Eligible 59.62 Moz, Total 111.87 Moz.

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Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Below, more on America’s black swan. Greed and avarice drove the Greenspan Fed’s deliberately created real estate bubble, which they created to try to overcome the aftermath of their collapsed stock market and dot con bubble of the 1990s. Remember NASDAQ, “the stock market for the next 100 years”. It now turns out that much of the real estate bubble was fraudulent from top to bottom, though that didn’t stop Wall Street from slicing and dicing the mortgages into various classes of mortgage backed securities, with the top class falsely insured into “triple-A” status and peddled to the unsuspecting world.

Now that bubble has well and truly burst, and massive amounts of the mortgages have gone into default. But in typical modern US bankster style, the toxic trash was peddled furiously around the SIVs specifically created by the banksters to keep the unsalable worst trance of toxic trash off the bank’s balance sheets, without anyone bothering to pay for keeping the paperwork in order. Why pay the fees on filing the right title transfer paperwork with the counties, or pay a notary to record witnessing signatures when they could just be forged or ignored. The result is now after 200 years, to make US real estate titles little better than the convoluted mess of Latin American banana republic real estate titles. Below, the NY Times covers the growing story that will likely end in “the next Lehman”, and hopefully, jail time for some of the banksters. Thus did America surrender its privilege of running the world’s only fiat reserve currency and economic leadership in the world. Stay long precious metals. Banksterism replaced capitalism in America under Greenspan – Bernanke. Sadly this only gets worse ahead.

"It is the greenback which is unstable, and not the bullion."

Dr. Franz Pick

Flawed Foreclosure Documents Thwart Home Sales

By ANDREW MARTIN and DAVID STREITFELD Published: October 7, 2010

OCALA, Fla. — Amanda Ducksworth was supposed to move in to her new home this week, a three-bedroom steal here in central Florida with a horse farm across the road. Instead, she is camped out with her 7-year-old son at her boss’s house.

Like many buyers across the country, Ms. Ducksworth was about to complete the purchase of a foreclosed house when it suddenly went off the market. Fannie Mae, the giant mortgage holding company that buys loans from commercial lenders, is pulling back sales of homes that might have been foreclosed in bad faith.

“I gave up my rental thinking I would have a house,” said Ms. Ducksworth, a 28-year-old catering assistant. “Now I’m sharing a room with my son. What the hell is up with that?”

With home sales this past summer at the lowest level in more than a decade, real estate is ill-prepared to suffer another blow. But as a scandal unfolds over mortgage lenders’ shoddy preparation of foreclosure documents, the fallout is beginning to hammer the housing market, especially in states like Florida where distressed properties are abundant.

“This crisis takes a situation that’s already bad and kind of cements it into place,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist for MFR Inc., an economic consulting firm.

Three major mortgage lenders — Bank of America, GMAC Mortgage and JPMorgan Chase — have said they are suspending foreclosures in the 23 states where they first need a judge’s approval. They are also waving off Fannie Mae from selling any of the foreclosed homes whose loans they sold to Fannie.

The companies say they are reviewing their operations after disclosures that employees signed documents without determining the accuracy of the material, as is required by law.

Those reviews are throwing into limbo hundreds of thousands of foreclosures and pending home sales, analysts estimate, though the lenders and Fannie Mae have been mostly silent about precise numbers and other specifics.

More broadly, the revelations about the sloppy paperwork are emboldening homeowners and law enforcement officials in many states to question whether lenders rightfully hold the notes underlying foreclosed properties — further chilling the housing market.

Distressed properties, many of which are in foreclosure, make up about a third of all home sales. “Foreclosures are going to slow to a crawl,” said Guy D. Cecala, publisher of the trade magazine Inside Mortgage Finance.

Of the 23 states where foreclosures need court approval, Florida has by far the most trouble — about a half-million cases clog its courts — and the moratoriums are having a noticeable effect.

Because most lenders sold their mortgages to Fannie Mae, it is largely that company that has been sending e-mails to real estate agents about putting off deals and removing houses from the market. In most cases, the agents are being told the freeze will last 30 to 90 days, but agents say there is no way to know for sure.

A snapshot of the problems can be seen at the real estate agency that sold Ms. Ducksworth her home, Marc Joseph Realty, based in Fort Myers.

The agency had 35 deals that were supposed to close this month. As of Thursday, Fannie had postponed 11 of them. Another handful of homes that did not have offers or were being prepared for market had also been withdrawn.

“If this wipes out half my inventory, that’s a scary thing,” said Bill Mitchell, the agency’s closing coordinator.

As he spoke, his computer pinged and another message from Fannie came through about withdrawing a house. It had the subject line, “Unable to Market Notice.”

More

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/08/business/08frozen.html?_r=1&hp

Below, pass out the pitchforks, heat up the tar, open the barrel of feathers, and bring out the tumbrels, ZeroHedge exposes just how corrupt America’s real estate debacle has become.

Bombshell of Foreclosure Fraud – Full Deposition of TAMMIE LOU KAPUSTA Law Office of David J Stern

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bombshell-foreclosure-fraud-%E2%80%93-full-deposition-tammie-lou-kapusta-law-office-david-j-stern

The paper standard is self-destructive."

Hans F. Sennholz

Another weekend, and time to enjoy God’s gift to mankind. Our woods and hedgerows are crammed full of Autumn’s bounty. Fungi are approaching their peak, but only for the knowledgeable to pick. The sweet chestnut trees have commenced dropping their edible chestnuts, the elderflower bushes are brimming with berries, the sloe are in full fruit, the last of the crab apples are still on the trees. Sadly in modern dumbed down Britain, few even see this abundance let alone know what to do with it. Have a great weekend everyone. More on the blog at the weekend.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September:

DJIA: +227 Down. NASDAQ: +321 Down. SP500: +221 Down.

The bull market (or bear market rally) that commenced on Nasdaq on 30/4/09 at 1717 has ended. (30/5/09 SP 500 at 919, 30/5/09 DJIA 8500.) While the indicators can flip flop at market turns, this action is rare on the slow monthly indicators. September is the fourth down month in a row.

Tuesday, 31 August 2010

QE Returns.

Baltic Dry Index. 2712
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $3,000.
“The war has developed not necessarily to Japan's advantage.”
Emperor Hirohito, August 1945

Japan yesterday became the first of the G-7 to return to quantitative easing. Where a bold policy was needed to break the rise of the yen, the BOJ opted instead for a baby step policy, and so the yen rose and Japan’s stocks slumped. Once started QE is virtually impossible to stop. A bad policy with eventual ruination as its destination, if you’re going to use QE, the BOJ forgot the only rule that applies, “you might as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb”. With the yen rising and taxes high, “Panasonic Corp., the maker of Viera televisions, said Aug. 20 it will move part of its plasma display panel production to Shanghai.” I wonder how much of that decision was down to China restricting rare metals exports and ending them entirely in 2015. Plasma panels require phosphors with rare earth doping. (Red requires europium, new blue europium phosphor retains brightness ten times longer than previous blue phosphors, and green is generated by phosphor doped with terbium.) Unless the west comes up with alternate non Chinese based rare earths and metals sources, the technology manufacturing future looks to be Chinese.

“Japan is an important ally of ours. Japan and the United States of the western industrialized capacity, 60 percent of the GNP, two countries. That's a statement in and of itself.”
Vice President Dan Quayle.

Japan renews QE as recovery falters

Japan has launched a fresh monetary and fiscal boost to shore up its faltering recovery and stem the slide into deflation, becoming the first major country to inject further stimulus since the Great Recession ended.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor Published: 8:20PM BST 30 Aug 2010

The Bank of Japan agreed at an emergency meeting to boost its special loan facility by ¥10 trillion to ¥30 trillion (£220.7bn). "We need to watch out more carefully for downside risks to Japan's economy," said Governor Masaaki Shirakawa, who cut off his trip to the Jackson Hole forum in the US.

"Several weak US figures came out, while the yen rose and stock prices fell. When we saw this, we decided that we need to take more precautions."

Premier Naoto Kan said Tokyo would tap into its reserve fund for a ¥920bn spending package on jobs and investment. "We want to take swift measures as the second pillar of stimulus to support easing by the bank," he said.

The sums are tiny, a sign of Mr Kan's limited room for manoeuvre as public debt reaches 225pc of GDP. Rating agencies are already circling ominously.

The economy stalled in the second quarter, growing just 0.1pc. Prices have fallen for the past 17 months. Core deflation is running at -1.1pc.

The Bank of Japan's move was too timid to stabilise exchange markets. The yen appreciated sharply to ¥84.6 against the dollar. It is once again closing in on a 15-year high.

---- Even so, it is the first central bank to start loosening again.

While the Bank of England has hinted at more quantitative easing, and the Fed is taking steps to avoid "passive tightening", neither has yet launched fresh QE

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7972098/Japan-renews-QE-as-recovery-falters.html

Japan Policy Tinkering Leaves ’Huge’ Risk to Growth

Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s limited policy response yesterday to risks facing economic growth after a surge in the yen may leave the recovery dependent on overseas spending.

---- The measures won’t alter the outlook for growth, which is poised to slow in the second half, according to economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co. Pressure on Japan’s currency to rise may also be sustained after the announcements prompted the yen to rise from its low of the day yesterday against the dollar.

----- The Nikkei 225 Stock Average tumbled 2.1 percent as investors shrugged off government reports today that showed the recovery remains intact even as it slows. Industrial production unexpectedly expanded 0.3 percent in July from June, when it declined 1.1 percent. Retail sales rose 0.7 percent from a month earlier as hotter-than-usual summer weather spurred shopping.

Japan’s recovery from its worst postwar recession has depended on exports, propelled by Asia, which now makes up a majority of overseas demand for the country’s products. That reliance is unlikely to change given limited prospects for domestic spending with a shrinking population and sustained deflation.

Gross domestic product growth will be more than halved in the final six months of this year, to an annual pace of about 1 percent from about 2.4 percent in January to June, according to Goldman Sachs.

Corporate Taxes

“There are huge downside risks” to the expansion, said Chiwoong Lee, a senior economist at Goldman Sachs in Tokyo. Rather than the “limited” action taken yesterday by policy makers, “what’s needed are measures that lead to innovative steps,” such as reductions in corporate tax rates for industries including technology, he said.

Tax rates for electronics companies in Japan are around 29 percent in Japan, compared with 6 percent in the U.S., Lee said.

Keidanren, Japan’s biggest business lobby, has called on the government to support investment by cutting corporate taxes. Without such a step, companies may plow their record cash holdings abroad rather than at home.

Nissan Motor Co., Japan’s third-largest automaker, began selling a Thai-made compact car in July to counter the rising yen. Panasonic Corp., the maker of Viera televisions, said Aug. 20 it will move part of its plasma display panel production to Shanghai.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alu_oRV._Ouw&pos=5

In other Asian news, China’s gain is Europe’s loss. Well. It isn’t yet but it soon will be. With Russia’s oil production hitting its limits and set to decline from next year onwards, Russia will soon have the option of deciding who stays warm in the northern hemisphere winter. Washington’s colour revolution policy of encircling Russia and going in for the kill, backfired badly as it forced Russia and China into a defensive alliance. Western Europe will soon get to pay for the ill conceived and poorly executed colour revolutions in faraway places, but Russia’s backyard.

Russia opens China pipeline for Siberian oil

By Isabel Gorst in Moscow

Published: August 29 2010 18:00 Last updated: August 29 2010 18:00.

Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister, on Sunday opened a new pipeline to export east Siberian oil to China that will help Russia reorientate its oil trade towards the east.

The pipeline, running 67km from Skovorodino in east Siberia to China’s north-eastern frontier, is an offshoot of a new oil export route Russia is building to the Pacific Ocean, providing a strategic window on the fast-growing energy markets of Asia.

----Russia began exporting oil this year from a new export terminal on the Pacific Ocean built to serve fields in east Siberia, one of the world’s last untapped oil provinces. Some Kremlin-friendly oil companies have been granted tax breaks to speed development of east Siberian reserves and offset a decline in production in other regions.

Transneft, the Russian oil pipeline monopoly, completed the construction of a pipeline from Taishet in the Irkutsk region to Skovorodino last year, the first stretch of a planned 2,757km pipeline to the Pacific. On completion in 2012, the pipeline will be capable of carrying up to 1.6m barrels of oil a day, about one-third of Russia’s current exports.

----Russia accepted a $25bn (€19.6bn, £16bn) loan from China in exchange for future oil deliveries last year, cementing its energy-trading relations with the world’s fastest growing oil consumer. The deal entitles China to import 300,000 barrels a day of Russian oil for 20 years starting in 2011.

Transneft said last year that Russia would boost its daily oil production by 1m barrels to 11m b/d after 2012, providing enough oil for exports both ways.

But analysts have warned that Russian oil production, after rising to an all-time record of 10.2m b/d this month, will begin to fall next year as a decline accelerates at mature fields.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dd89374a-b38c-11df-81aa-00144feabdc0.html

We end today with signs of global cooling arriving, perhaps?

China's largest saltwater lake grows after 50 years of shrinking

10:40, August 02, 2010

The surface area of China's largest saltwater lake had grown in size over the past five years amid increased rain and decreased evaporation, an expert from the Qinghai Provincial Center of Geomatics said Saturday.
The surface area of the Qinghai Lake had reached 4,249.3 square kilometers, 4.3 square kilometers more than in 2005, Wang Yuan, deputy director of the center, said.
"The year 2005 was a turning point. Before then, the lake's size was decreasing due to climate change and human activities," Wang said.
The government's environmental protection work had contributed to the increase in surface area, Wang said.
The lake's surface area shrunk more than 300 square kilometers beginning in the 1950s, according to the Qinghai Province Meteorological Sciences Academy.

http://chinatibet.people.com.cn/7089362.html

At the Comex silver depositories Monday, final figures were: Registered 51.91 Moz, Eligible 58.85 Moz, Total 110.76 Moz.

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Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today it’s the crooks and scoundrels in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change again. The nutters who brought the world the scam of “carbon trading, carbon taxes, and carbon capture”, in the cause of fighting “man-made global warming for CO2”, now rebranded “climate change”, since the public got wise to the man-mad global warming scam, are found guilty of being economical with the truth, and more than a little self serving. Things were apparently so bad, it was the best the finest whitewash committee could come up with. No need to tell them about Qinghai Lake.

How about we refund your money, send you a new one at no charge, close the store and have the manager shot. Would that be satisfactory?

Chinese laundry sign.

IPCC 'must avoid playing politics'

The UN's climate change body has been told to stick to the science and avoid playing politics in a landmark review of how it operates

By Stephen Adams Published: 7:00AM BST 31 Aug 2010

A group of leading scientists from around the world said on Monday that the leaders of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had left themselves open to the accusation that they had "gone beyond IPCC's remit".

In March the Amsterdam-based InterAcademy Council (IAC) was called in after a number of errors were found in the IPCC's landmark 2007 Fourth Assessment Report into man-made climate change.

Key among those was the unsubstantiated claim - based on an article in New Scientist magazine - that most of the Himalayas' glaciers would have melted by 2035.

Its inclusion gave ammunition to those sceptical about the climate change science, who dug for further evidence that the IPCC's report was flawed and the organisation biased.

On Monday the IAC announced its recommendations on how to strengthen the IPCC, saying it "needs fundamental reform" to convince an ever more sceptical public that its science was solid.

It did not call into question the main findings of the 2007 report, and said that overall its assessment process of the rate of, and risks from, climate chance had "been a success and served society well".

However, the IAC said: "IPCC’s slow and inadequate response to revelations of errors in the last assessment, as well as complaints that its leaders have gone beyond IPCC’s mandate to be 'policy relevant, not policy prescriptive' in their public comments, have made communications a critical issue."

Harold Shapiro, a Princeton University professor of economics, who chaired the IAC committee, noted that "controversies have erupted over the perceived impartiality of IPCC towards climate policy".

He said guidelines should be drawn up "on how to speak on the IPCC's behalf while staying within the the bounds of IPCC reports".

The report also recommended that a "rigorous conflict-of-interest policy" should be drawn up for senior IPCC leadership and authors of its reports. In the future no individual should chair the IPCC for more than one six-year term, it stated.

Additionally, "formal qualifications for the chair and all other Bureau members need to be developed", the IAC said.

While Prof Shapiro stipulated that the IAC's recommendations were "not in any way motivated by an evaluation of the current leadership of IPCC", many will see them as putting pressure on Dr Pachauri.

The Indian scientist, who started his career as a railway engineer, refused to resign following the Himalaya debacle.

He has also been dogged by questions over conflict of interest, which he has resolutely denied. He has been in the post since 2002 - he was awarded a new six-year term in 2008 - and he plans to remain until 2014.

The IAC also said the IPCC should tighten up on its use of so-called "gray literature" - that which has not been peer-reviewed.

Prof Shapiro said: "IPCC has guidelines for the use of such sources, but these guidelines are vague and have not always been followed."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/7972011/IPCC-must-avoid-playing-politics.html

Phew! So that’s alright then. Move along, nothing to see here. For a moment there we actually thought you might be conducting an impartial review.

“They have all the virtues I dislike and none of the vices I admire.”

With apologies to Winston Churchill.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished July:

DJIA: +264 Down. NASDAQ: +427 Down. SP500: +275 Down.

The bull market (or bear market rally) that commenced on Nasdaq on 30/4/09 at 1717 has ended. (30/5/09 SP 500 at 919, 30/5/09 DJIA 8500.) While the indicators can flip flop at market turns, this action is rare on the slow monthly indicators. July seems to have confirmed June’s reversal and end of the bull market.

Help the LIR fight Banksterism, the EU, and for sound money.

If you can, help the LIR stay around and make a difference. Please make a donation at the PayPal link on the website or better still become a sponsor for what looks like an exciting 2010. Capitalism not banksterism. Many thanks to all who have helped.

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Sunspots – A 22 year colder world? (From 2004?)

Spotless Days Aug 30
Current Stretch:0 days

2010 total: 39 days (16%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Since 2004: 807 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days

http://www.spaceweather.com

Tuesday, 6 July 2010

What Happened to the Green Shoots?

Baltic Dry Index. 2216 -64
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $3,000.

“What me worry?”

Mad Magazine.

We open this morning with the BDI back to 2216, just a little over double the historic low it hit back in late 2008 at the height of the aftermath of the Lehman crash. Since the 26th of May high, the Baltic Dry Index has fallen some 47%. While one swallow doesn’t make a summer, the BDI’s collapse implies an impending trade implosion right ahead. Of course much of it is down to events in China, where the authorities can turn on or off massive sections of the economy, virtually at will. For now, commodities restocking, inventory rebuilding, seems to have been turned off. Much of the current decline is reportedly due to a major decline in Chinese imports of iron ore. As we reported yesterday, China’s domestic coal prices now make it uneconomic to import coal from any export country. China’s boom may now be already headed into bust. If so, the BDI and the global economy are both going to decline more.

Below, Harvard’s professor Rogoff on China’s property bubble starting a collapse, he thinks. If he’s right, bad things will happen fast from here.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that’s even remotely true!

Ben Bernanke, with apologies to Homer Simpson.

Rogoff Says China Property Starting to ‘Collapse’

July 6 (Bloomberg) -- China’s property market is beginning a “collapse” that will hit the nation’s banking system, said Kenneth Rogoff, the Harvard University professor and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

As China’s economy develops, “especially at the speed it’s growing, it’s going to have bumps,” said Rogoff, speaking in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Hong Kong. He also said that while recoveries across the global economy are “very slow,” the danger of a return to recession isn’t “elevated.”

Rogoff’s concern echoes that of investors, who sent China’s benchmark stock index to its worst loss in more than a year last week. China’s data have been a focus because the nation has led the global recovery from the worst postwar recession.

The Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 6.7 percent last week, and dropped 0.8 percent yesterday to close at 2,363.95.

Chinese authorities intensified a crackdown on property speculation after announcing the economy expanded at an 11.9 percent annual pace in the first quarter, the most since 2007. Measures have included raising minimum mortgage rates and down payment ratios for some home purchases. Officials may also start a trial property tax, according to state media.

Sales Dive

The efforts have contributed to a slump in real-estate sales, while prices continue to climb. The value of property sales dropped 25 percent in May from the previous month. The increase in prices, at an annual 12.4 percent in May according to a government survey of 70 cities, was down from a 12.8 percent advance in April.

“You’re starting to see that collapse in property and it’s going to hit the banking system,” said Rogoff, 57, who also serves on the Group of 30, a panel of central bankers, finance officials and academics led by former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker.

----- Property prices will probably fall in some regions of China in about three months, said Xu Shaoshi, minister of Land and Resources, according to a Securities Times story yesterday. Values are now stagnant, Xu also said, according to the report.

Rogoff in February said that real estate values in Beijing and Shanghai had “taken a departure from reality,” and a real- estate bubble bursting would be the most likely cause of a slump in Chinese growth to as low as 2 percent at some point in the coming decade.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aA9Y5VxWh9lw

On the other side of the world to China, when is a bank “stress test” really not a stress testl? Answer, when the stress test is run on EU banks for the purpose of conning the markets. Of course, EU stress tests or not, the markets aren’t fooled for long, if at all. Below The Telegraph covers Europe’s worse than useless bank stress tests. There goes the EU banking neighborhood it seems. Stay long precious metals. With trouble in China and the across the EU, what else could possibly go wrong?

The market, like the Lord, helps those who help themselves. But, unlike the Lord, the market does not forgive those who know not what they do.

Warren Buffett.

Europe’s ‘toothless’ bank tests making matters worse

RBS and other City institutions have warned that Europe’s stress tests for banks are almost useless and may further damage confidence if they fail to cover the risk of large losses on sovereign defaults by Greece and other Club Med states

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Published: 9:55PM BST 05 Jul 2010

“I don’t think it is going to work,” said Jacques Cailloux, Europe economist at RBS. “These stress tests are not rigorous enough. Investors are already pricing in a 50pc “haircut” on some Greek bonds so this has to be included, and perhaps 30pc for Spain.”

“We have had a complete failure of communication by the eurozone over recent months with 16 countries all saying different things, and there is a very high chance of another failure this time.”

Mr Cailloux, who has issued a “double dip alert” for Europe, said it would be unwise for EU policy-makers to go holiday this summer. Markets are no longer willing to take on exposure to some €2 trillion of household and company debt in Spain, and this gap cannot be plugged for much longer by three-month loans from the European Central Bank.

“If by the end of the summer we have not had much more aggressive policy action, we’re back to contagion. This time it is no longer just a peripheral story. It is starting to infect the core eurozone as well, France in particular. I cannot understand why the ECB is not buying Spanish corporate bonds,” he said.

Christine Lagarde, French finance minister, said the result of tests would be published on July 23. Details will emerge over coming days on “the exact criteria we apply and of how heavily we stress the system”.

The tests will cover up to 100 banks, including many of the Spanish cajas and German savings banks at the eye of the storm. A report by CreditSights said some cajas have disguised the true scale of losses from the housing bust by propping up mortgage securities through purchases of delinquent loans from mortgage pools. The share prices of Allied Irish, Bank of Ireland, Dexia, and Credit Agricole have all fallen hard recently.

Mrs Lagarde said the tests will show that Europe’s banks are “solid and healthy”, but it is this tone of certainty that is causing markets to ask whether this is really a “stress test without stress” – as dubbed in Germany’s media.

Interbank lending in Europe has been half-paralysed since Greek debt woes escalated into a broader banking and sovereign debt crisis. The authorities hope the stress test will prove a magic cure. Last year’s tests in the US were the turning point for America’s banks, but that is because 10 of the 19 banks failed, requiring $75bn (£49.5bn) of extra capital.

Der Spiegel said the test will not include defaults by Greece or other states for fear that this would hurt the credibility of the EU’s new €440bn European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) designed to shore up eurozone debtors.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/7873792/Europes-toothless-bank-tests-making-matters-worse.html

That “what else could possibly go wrong,” might just be Japan. With China an enigma of iffy statistics suggesting trouble and a slowdown underway, and Toyota still not firing on all cylinders in Japan, Japan’s economy is now also hitting the global wobble. A wobble that to me looks all too likely to end in the double dip G-7 recession.

Japan Economy Index Falls for First Time in 14 Months

July 6 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s broadest indicator of economic health dropped for the first time in 14 months, signaling the recovery is losing momentum after rebounding from the worst postwar recession.

The coincident index, a composite of 11 indicators including factory production and retail sales, fell to 101.2 in May from 101.3, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The result matched the median estimate of 16 economists surveyed.

The report adds to evidence that the world’s second- largest economy is cooling after growing 5 percent in the first quarter. Japanese stocks have tumbled in recent weeks, part of a worldwide slump that reflects investor concern the global recovery will falter.

“With production starting to slow, it’s hard to imagine that the economy will sustain the pace of expansion seen at the beginning of the year,” said Yoshiki Shinke, senior economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.6 percent at 2:05 p.m. in Tokyo, reversing declines of as much as 1.9 percent. The gauge has retreated 18 percent from this year’s peak on April 5, exacerbated by gains in the yen that threaten to erode exporters’ profits.

------ Shipments abroad have led Japan’s economic revival that began in the second quarter of last year. Recent data suggest the benefits are slow to spread to households, whose outlays account for more than half of the economy.

The jobless rate reached a five-month high of 5.2 percent in May, household spending retreated for a second month and factory output slipped 0.1 percent from April, government reports showed last week.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=azUvTW1LtU8E

We end for today with oil news, did the majors give up on the North Sea too quickly? Latest developments suggest that might have.

North Sea oil: hopes rise of the biggest discovery in a decade

Estimates of reserves in a new North Sea discovery have been raised for the second time in two weeks and the third in a month after further drilling found more oil in an area that had been regarded as a poor prospect.

By Roland Gribben Published: 10:43PM BST 05 Jul 2010

The four-field Catcher complex, 110 miles south-east of Aberdeen, is now estimated to contain up to 350m barrels and with more wells planned could emerge as the biggest North Sea discovery in a decade. Recent discoveries have been in the "tiddler" category with reserves of between 20m-30m barrels.

Around half the oil is expected to be recoverable but Premier Oil, the biggest partner with a 35pc stake in the find, is being cautious about the potential. Premier on Monday upgraded its recoverable estimate from the 50m-80m barrels announced a week ago to between 60m-100m following the latest drilling result.

Encore, the Aim-listed operator with a 15pc interest in the field, has been more bullish about the size of the field but is expected to either sell its interest or hand over development to Premier, one of the few remaining independent North Sea investors who have stayed the course for almost 40 years.

Simon Lockett, Premier chief executive, said the partners intended to move rapidly to assess the remaining exploration potential and development options. Direct tanker loading is seen as the main option but with more wells planned the field could justify a pipeline link to shore from a production platform.

The Catcher discovery has provided a fillip for North Sea exploration at a time when the Government is stepping up efforts to increase investment and attract new players after the exodus of the major oil companies. Analysts believe the Catcher fields open up the prospect of more finds in the central North Sea area.

Interest has been heightened because the seismic data from the latest Catcher well was not seen as promising. Current plans involve drilling at least two more wells to determine the extent of the find.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/7873355/North-Sea-oil-hopes-rise-of-the-biggest-discovery-in-a-decade.html

At the Comex silver depositories Friday, final figures were: Registered 50.93 Moz, Eligible 63.37 Moz, Total 114.31 Moz.

"Let's make sure that there is certainty during uncertain times in our economy."

President George W. Bush

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Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, Germany. As with Wall Street, when the banks’ stock peddlers call, hang up. Why would Germany’s top bank push a stock on its “clients” that it wasn’t prepared to invest in itself. Der Spiegel thinks it might be to do with the extraordinary commission rate of 12%! They wouldn’t just chase commissions would they?

"We shouldn't pour cold water on everything. We, the eight or nine players in global investment banking, have a very good future."

Deutsche Bank, CEO Josef Ackermann. Davos, January 2007.

Discontent Over Deutsche Bank's Dubious Fund Advice

By Andreas Wassermann 07/05/2010

Deutsche Bank is coming under pressure to explain why it advised its clients to buy shares in a Ferris wheel fund and then deemed the project too risky to invest in itself. So far no wheels have been built and many small investors have lost their money.

Peter Schmidt, a retiree in Berlin, was skeptical from the beginning. What reason did he have to get involved with Ferris wheels, he wondered. His retort to his financial advisor was, "I'm not with the circus or the carnival." But the expert at Deutsche Bank described the investment opportunity in glowing terms, talking, at least as Schmidt remembers it, of double-digit yields and of enormous observation wheels like the London Eye, an attraction that has drawn hordes of visitors in the British capital since 2000.

Eventually, Schmidt was won over and bought shares worth €15,000 ($18,800) in a Ferris wheel fund called Global View. He believed then, in November 2006, that after all Deutsche Bank was endorsing the investment, and he had trusted the bank in financial matters for decades.

Schmidt now knows that the bank's recommendation wasn't sound advice. Global View, promoted as a "highly attractive investment," has largely squandered €208 million, without building even a single one of the Ferris wheels planned for Beijing, Florida and Berlin. Berlin's public prosecutors office has developed an interest in the fund, investigating whether those who initiated the much vaunted investment misappropriated investors' money. They deny the accusation. And it remains to be seen whether Schmidt will ever get his money back.

Failed Investment

For Deutsche Bank, though, the Ferris wheel project turned out to be very good business. The Frankfurt-based bank earned €19.2 million through Global View thanks to its client advisors, who drew in €160 million from the bank's customers within the space of 10 weeks, primarily from German small investors like Schmidt. The bank itself, however, never invested in the fund. Global View used the bank Delbrück Bethmann Maffei (DBM) instead. Deutsche Bank preferred not to invest its own money in the project, for example through loans. Even when that money was badly needed, the bank declined on the basis of a "market risk" that couldn't "be assessed and covered by the bank."

The uproar over the failed investment plan raised questions again that have been debated around the world since the onset of the financial crisis and the Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy: to what degree a bank shares responsibility for investments it recommends to its clients. Does Deutsche Bank bear a share of the accountability for a project that it first pitched to its clients, then later internally determined to be too high risk? That evaluation can be found in the correspondence between Deutsche Bank, DBM and the project's initiators, which offers insight into dubious business practices on the part of Germany's largest bank. The letters and e-mails raise suspicions that Deutsche Bank not only insisted on unusually high commission rates that were meant to be concealed from investors, but even doubted the project's chance of success.

From the beginning, the bank calculated using an "equity commission of 12 percent." The sales brochure was only supposed to show 10 percent, which called for a creative solution.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,704655,00.html#ref=nlint

"It's strange that men should take up crime when there are so many legal ways to be dishonest. “

Al Capone

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished June:

DJIA: +269 Down. NASDAQ: +460 Down. SP500: +290 Down.

The bull market (or bear market rally) that commenced on Nasdaq on 30/4/09 at 1717 has ended. (30/5/09 SP 500 at 919, 30/5/09 DJIA 8500.) While the indicators can flip flop at market turns, this action is rare on the slow monthly indicators. Given the weakening BDI, and the ECRI leading indicators signaling recession ahead, it is probably safer to assume that the great stock market bounce has ended and that we are entering a new bear market, or alternately, resuming the old one after a bear market rally.

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Sunspots – A 22 year colder world? (From 2004?)

Spotless Days July 05
Current Stretch:0 days

2010 total: 35 days (19%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Since 2004: 803 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days

http://www.spaceweather.com