Baltic Dry Index. 2446 -22
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $3,000.
Wales is the land of my fathers. And my fathers can have it.
Dylan Thomas.
We have reached another weekend, and a busy weekend too. Latvia holds parliamentary elections of Saturday with an austerity weary electorate likely to give a big boost to a pro-Moscow party. Brazil holds its Presidential election on Sunday. China takes today off for the start of Golden Week. Australia take Monday off for Labour Day. In Wales, America and Europe’s golfers discover why it’s not such a good idea to hold the Ryder Cup contest in wet and windy, beautiful Wales in October. With a little bit of luck though, it will help showcase modern Wales as a destination for tourism and establishing businesses. In Delhi India, the ready or unready Commonwealth Games get underway on Sunday and we wish the organizers and all taking part a successful event that does modern India proud. With bad timing in cricket mad India, the first in the current tour, India v Australia test match also starts this weekend. My guess is that all of them will stay warmer and drier than our American and European guests in Wales.
Later today, Dr. Ben Bernanke gets to address the unfortunately named, U.S.: Financial Stability Oversight Council. What financial stability? What oversight? A council of the three blind mice? Given the Doc’s disastrous track record, a record of misjudgment and error second only to that of fallen maestro Guru Greenspan, why would anyone care what Helicopter Ben has to say other than to bet the other way? Still even a stopped clock is right twice a day, and no one, not even wrong way Bernanke can have a 100% record of always being wrong, so perhaps this is the red letter day we get note in our diaries. All the same I’m sticking with gold and silver.
We open for the day with US tulips, sorry stocks, coming off their best September since 1939, when Europe’s new war promised boom times for America’s industries. This year the prospects don’t look anything like so good, but with the Fed conducting stealth back door quantitative easing and promising more front door QE as well to commence imminently, the unreal artificial Fed induced stock bubble continues to grow. It goes without saying that this too will probably end badly with the Fed loudly proclaiming to all that there was nothing they could do. At least they could plant tulips and sell the flowers or have I missed something important about a coming war?
When you can see the coast of Devon from Swansea it is going to rain. When you can't, it is raining already.
US stock markets enjoy best September for 71 years
Stock markets in the US enjoyed their biggest September rally since 1939 on Thursday despite falling on the day.
Published: 10:11PM BST 30 Sep 2010
The broader S&P 500 rose 8.8pc on the month and the Dow Jones was up 7.7pc.
The last time Wall Street saw a stronger September, when the Dow Jones soared 13.49pc , was at the start of the Second World War, when traders anticipated a strong rise in demand for US manufactured goods and war materials.
However, on Thursday the S&P 500 fell 3.53 to 1141.20 and the Dow dropped 47.23 to 10788.05 as new data on jobs and economic growth continued to indicate the economy was recovering at a slow pace.
Gross domestic product, which measures the output of goods and services in the US, increased at an annual rate of 1.7pc in the second quarter and the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell more than expected last week for the third time in four weeks.
Separately, the ISM-Chicago Business Survey rose in September to chalk up a full twelve months of expansion, showing an improvement in industrial activity in the key area.
Sentiment has been underpinned by solid company earnings, a spate of big corporate deals, poor returns from bonds as interest rates hovering around record lows, and hopes that the US Federal Reserve will step in if growth in the world's largest economy stalls.
Next, Ireland catapults itself over Greece in the race to be the first EU sovereign debt default. The ECB will just have to keep Ireland afloat until the German’s cry enough! Below, what happened after the last Leprechaun left twon.
If you ever go across the sea to Ireland,
Then maybe at the closing of your day,
You will sit and watch the moon rise over Claddagh,
And see the German Euro sink under Galway Bay.
Ireland's love affair with masochism
Last updated: September 30th, 2010
A more shocking set of numbers is hard to imagine. The latest bailout package for Ireland’s insolvent banks will raise the nation’s budget deficit from an already alarmingly high 12 per cent to a jaw dropping 32 per cent, which will in turn send overall public debt spiralling upwards to just shy of 100 per cent of GDP. Only a few years back, Ireland had one of the best public debt to GDP ratios in the eurozone at under 25 per cent. The scale of the deterioration is truly astonishing, and vivid illustration of the degree to which Ireland’s “tiger economy” was built on the sand of misallocated credit.
It seems almost perverse to start looking for good news amidst all this devastation, but as in the aftermath of an earthquake, it is the triumph of hope over despair which always provides the more uplifting story. The good news for Ireland is that these latest bailouts have the potential to draw a line in the sand, and provide a grounding from which the economy can rebuild.
The other piece of good news to take from all this destruction is that Ireland has already fully funded itself until the middle of next year. Spreads on Irish debt are still painfully high, but the finance minister Brian Lenihan has at least bought a little time to sort out the mess. He can but hope that by the time he comes to tap markets again things will be on the mend and that bond investors will therefore look on his demands a little more sympathetically. Mr Lenihan promises to reduce the deficit to 3 per cent of GDP by 2014.
Even so, there are plenty of reasons for fearing a less happy outcome. Ireland’s nascent economic recovery stalled in the second quarter, when output shrunk by an annualised 1.2 per cent. With even more austerity set to be piled on top of what’s already been announced, there must be some doubt over whether Ireland can grow its way back to health.
The danger is of a vicious cycle of decline where more cuts prompt a further economic contraction, which in turn causes further bad debts in the banking sector, renewed collapse in the tax base, and therefore an ever wider deficit. Stuck with a monetary policy which is essentially set to suit German needs, Ireland could be condemned to a semi-permanent deflationary funk.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100007882/irelands-love-affair-with-masochism/
We close for today’s travel shortened update with a good news story that just might be what lifts the west’s economies up to a better future 2014 onwards. Lately there has been a furry of technological breakthroughs in solar power, renewable energy and in e-mobility. I think that we are at the dawn of the second age of electricity. While it doesn’t do a lot for us in 2010-2012, thereafter I think our future looks brighter as we learn to use our resources more efficiently, less pollutingly, and more sustainably. Below, Jaguar and Bladon Jets, unveil a pretty interesting test bed EV car.
And the latest news from the Glamorgan county cricket ground at St. Helen's in Swansea: Two and a half inches of rain have fallen for seven runs.
Paris Motor Show 2010: Jaguar creates electric supercar with jet engine
Jaguar has made a radical step forward in the development of electric cars and provided a glimpse into its future by producing a supercar capable of speeds over 200mph.
By Graham Ruddick Published: 6:55AM BST 30 Sep 2010
The Daily Telegraph can today reveal the first images of the C-X75 concept car, which has a top speed of 205mph, making it the fastest ever electric road car.
The C-X75, which will be officially unveiled at the Paris motor show today, can also travel for 560 miles without needing to be recharged through a plug – significantly further than the current industry peak of around 100 miles – because of a gas turbine system designed by a British engineer.
The gas turbine technology from Bladon Jets, which is based in Shropshire, recharge the battery beyond its basic range and provides extra power to the four electric motors driving the wheels.
Ralf Speth, chief executive of Jaguar Land Rover, said: “The C-X75 demonstrates that Jaguar is still leading the field automotive design and technology. And will always continue to build beautiful, fast cars."
The gas turbines on the car need to be refueled, meaning the car essentially uses hybrid technology. However, it is classed as an electric car because it is driven by electric motors and there is no petrol engine.
More.
Bladon Jets.
A certain political appointment once lay between a Welsh and a Scottish M.P.
An Englishman was asked who he thought should get the job.
'Well,' he replied, 'if we get the Welshman he'll pray on his knees on Sundays and on his neighbours the rest of the week.
If we get the Scotsman he'll keep the Sabbath and anything else he can lay his hands on.'
At the Comex silver depositories Thursday, final figures were: Registered 53.88 Moz, Eligible 57.19 Moz, Total 111.07 Moz.
+++++
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, the news from Europe is all bad.
European Manufacturing Cools, Export Orders Weaken
Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Growth in Europe’s manufacturing industry slowed in September and export orders weakened as a cooling global recovery restrained demand.
A gauge of manufacturing in the 16-nation euro region declined to 53.7 from 55.1 the previous month, London-based Markit Economics said today. That compares with an initial estimate of 53.6 released on Sept. 23. It’s the 12th straight month with a reading above 50, indicating expansion.
Europe’s economy is cooling after growth accelerated to the fastest pace in four years in the second quarter. The European Commission sees a more “moderate” expansion in the second half as unemployment close to a 12-year high hobbles consumer spending and governments step up austerity measures to reduce budget deficits.
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_iNu0sRTMq4&pos=5
Swiss Tax Treaty With Germany May Finish Bank Secrecy in Europe
Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Switzerland’s tax treaty with Germany may finish banking secrecy in Europe and prompt withdrawals as Swiss banks will no longer guarantee client confidentiality.
The treaty will allow investigators to request Swiss assistance in tracking down undeclared money deposited by German nationals, said Eric Jucker, a Zurich-based tax lawyer. It probably will be signed this month by Swiss Finance Minister Hans-Rudolf Merz and his German counterpart Wolfgang Schaeuble.
“The agreement that will come into force will go very much further on the information that can be exchanged between officials,” Jucker said. “Banking secrecy will come to an end outside of Switzerland” as the country adopts international tax standards, he said.
Germans are the biggest clients of Swiss money managers with assets of about 260 billion francs ($264 billion), according to estimates from Geneva-based broker Helvea. Swiss banks, including Julius Baer Group Ltd. and Bank Sarasin & Cie., are now setting up branches around Europe to retain cross-border clients.
The German accord follows standards set out in Switzerland’s agreement with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in March 2009 after the country was threatened with being blacklisted as a tax haven. It will spell out circumstances under which Switzerland will give Germany “administrative assistance” in cases where there is evidence of tax evasion, said Mario Tuor, a spokesman for the Swiss State Secretariat for International Financial Matters in Bern.
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5kWoTlMi31Q&pos=3
I hear Evan Morgan broke the world 100 metre record wearing mining boots."
"How did he manage that?"
"He fell down the shaft."
Have a great weekend everyone, whatever pastime you’re up to or sport you’re following. Check with the blog ofr the weekend update.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September:
DJIA: +227 Down. NASDAQ: +321 Down. SP500: +221 Down.
The bull market (or bear market rally) that commenced on Nasdaq on 30/4/09 at 1717 has ended. (30/5/09 SP 500 at 919, 30/5/09 DJIA 8500.) While the indicators can flip flop at market turns, this action is rare on the slow monthly indicators. September is the fourth down month in a row.
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