Baltic Dry Index. 2741 +28
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $3,000.
In the past decade the United States has dramatically shifted the way in which it wages war – fewer soldiers and more contractors.
Last month, the Congressional Research Service reported that the Department of Defense (DoD) workforce has 19% more contractors (207,600) than uniformed personnel (175,000) in Iraq and Afghanistan, making the wars in these two countries the most outsourced and privatized in U.S. history.
http://www.counterpunch.org/quigley09012010.html
While high frequency trading programs were busy gaming the stock market yesterday, 27 of the last 89 NYSE trading days have been 90%+ up or down by share volume, yesterday’s turn was up, we opted to take a look at our rapidly changing world. Thanks to BP and Greenpeace, the odds are now higher that we will fall behind in finding and developing the replacement oil we need for our modern way of life. Peak oil, thanks to deepwater drilling restrictions and a shaken public confidence in the ability of the behemoth oil companies to safely drill for technologically challenging oil, is now a very likely prospect. Below, Der Spiegel on a surprising twist in Europe. In Germany and Britain at least, peak oil is now scaring the governments. What do they know that we don’t?
'Peak Oil' and the German Government 09/01/2010
Military Study Warns of a Potentially Drastic Oil Crisis
By Stefan Schultz
A study by a German military think tank has analyzed how "peak oil" might change the global economy. The internal draft document -- leaked on the Internet -- shows for the first time how carefully the German government has considered a potential energy crisis.
The term "peak oil" is used by energy experts to refer to a point in time when global oil reserves pass their zenith and production gradually begins to decline. This would result in a permanent supply crisis -- and fear of it can trigger turbulence in commodity markets and on stock exchanges.
The issue is so politically explosive that it's remarkable when an institution like the Bundeswehr, the German military, uses the term "peak oil" at all. But a military study currently circulating on the German blogosphere goes further.
The study is a product of the Future Analysis department of the Bundeswehr Transformation Center, a think tank tasked with fixing a direction for the German military. The team of authors, led by Lieutenant Colonel Thomas Will, uses sometimes-dramatic language to depict the consequences of an irreversible depletion of raw materials. It warns of shifts in the global balance of power, of the formation of new relationships based on interdependency, of a decline in importance of the western industrial nations, of the "total collapse of the markets" and of serious political and economic crises.
The study, whose authenticity was confirmed to SPIEGEL ONLINE by sources in government circles, was not meant for publication. The document is said to be in draft stage and to consist solely of scientific opinion, which has not yet been edited by the Defense Ministry and other government bodies.
The lead author, Will, has declined to comment on the study. It remains doubtful that either the Bundeswehr or the German government would have consented to publish the document in its current form. But the study does show how intensively the German government has engaged with the question of peak oil.
Parallels to activities in the UK
The leak has parallels with recent reports from the UK. Only last week the Guardian newspaper reported that the British Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) is keeping documents secret which show the UK government is far more concerned about a supply crisis than it cares to admit.
More.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,715138,00.html#ref=nlint
If peak oil is the problem, renewable energy is the solution, and with it e-mobility via electric bikes, scooters, cars, vans and trucks. I write regularly on the subject over at the rare metal blog, (http://www.raremetalblog.com/) where many better writers than me cover the subject in depth, but the following press release caught my interest at the end of last month, if only for the part about Magna International. If Magna’s Frank Stronach, the Henry Ford of our day, is getting involved with e-mobility and EVs, it’s very likely to be “the next big thing”.
A modern electric car has only about five main moving parts compared with hundreds in an internal combustion engine. There are no regular visits to the dealership for an EV. No oil changes, no filters – even brake pads last two-to-three times longer than in conventional cars, because EVs like the THINK City use regenerative braking to recapture the energy that would otherwise be lost while braking. Your first trip to the dealership with an EV for scheduled maintenance is at 40,000 miles to check the brake pads. Eventually, you’ll need new wiper blades and tires. But that’s about it!
Celadon Applications Announces the Release of the Road2™ Mobile Application to Eliminate Range Anxiety for Electric Vehicle Drivers
Celadon Applications, (www.CeladonApps.com ), creator of intelligent green energy and transportation software applications for the electric vehicle and alternate energy markets, is announcing the release of their newest application for eliminating "range anxiety" in electric and hybrid vehicles, Road2™.
Iowa City, IA (PRWEB) August 25, 2010
Celadon Applications, (www.CeladonApps.com ), creator of intelligent green energy and transportation software applications for the electric vehicle and alternate energy markets, is announcing the release of their newest application for eliminating "range anxiety" in electric and hybrid vehicles, Road2™.
Road2 is an advanced vehicle simulator that enables drivers of electric and hybrid vehicles to determine accurately and easily how far they can drive on specific battery charge level over a route of their choice. The application is essential for electric and hybrid vehicles of all types. Road2 is not a theoretical calculation like many rudimentary approaches, but uses specific sensor data, individual vehicle characteristics, weather, topographic and road conditions and other elements to provide an accurate measure with which the driver can feel confident.
Drivers must know they can drive somewhere and get home again, never being stranded. The EV market will require many elements for growth, but most important to a driver's buying decision is eliminating driver "range anxiety".
Road2 is an application which drivers can use with their Smartphones, desktops, on the internet, and even in their vehicles. Simply select where you want to go, and Road2 will tell you which route is fastest, shortest or uses the least battery energy while insuring you get there and back. Locations and specifications of charging station opportunities along the way are provided. Road2 bases all calculations on your specific vehicle configuration, route, weather, topology and many other factors, every 0.1 meter.
-------Top tier auto supply companies such as Magna International have purchased Road2. Celadon is in discussions with other manufacturers and suppliers. The Iowa Department of Economic Development and the Pappajohn Entrepreneurial Center (http://www.iowajpec.org/) have recognized Celadon as a high potential company and in the forefront of providing applications for the blossoming electric car market such as Nissan Leaf, GM Volt, Tesla, Honda, Toyota Prius, etc.
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2010/08/prweb4422784.htm
With $1-billion windfall, Stronach plunges into new ventures
Published On Wed Sep 1 2010
When Frank Stronach touched down aboard a corporate jet in Vienna near Magna International’s European headquarters on Wednesday night, his mind wasn’t much on clinching a $1-billion payoff from the company.
Like a secret agent feverishly hop-scotching across the world’s hot spots, the legendary entrepreneur was already deep into another mission. Not much time to count cash.
This time, Stronach was in pursuit of what he considers the next big thing: electric cars.
The part-time Magna chairman and full-time visionary wants to make sure the manufacturing powerhouse gets in front of the pack and stays there.
A $1-billion gain would likely cause pause for even some of the world’s richest people, but not for the 77-year-old Austrian immigrant and former tool-and-die maker who started a small Toronto shop in 1956 and turned it into the fourth-largest auto parts company in the world.
“I wasn’t too interested,” Stronach said in an interview after arriving at the head office in Oberwaltersdorf, Austria. “I don’t see much of a difference.”
While lawyers battled in an Ontario court this week over whether Stronach and his family trust should get the windfall in cash and stock plus other lucrative benefits in exchange for his controlling stake in Magna, he was busy with talks in the Far East.
It was the middle of a three-week trek by a Magna team studying and scouting opportunities on what can and can’t work in the emerging world of electric vehicles for the masses.
http://www.thestar.com/business/companies/magna/article/855718--with-1-billion-windfall-stronach-plunges-into-new-ventures
I am a big believer in our new arriving electronic age, I see e-vehicles now as the equivalent of autos in about 1908. By 1920 they were on their way to dominate the world. If we can come up with enough Neodymium and dysprosium to make it all happen, I expect the transition to renewable energy, megawatt grid storage, e-mobilty, and build-out of the recharging industry, the new “gas stations of the 21st century”, to be the driver of our way out of the current recession/depression. Below, latest developments in EV.
Electrical vehicles emit no tailpipe emissions while driving. We are not counting grams. We simply have no tailpipe at all, and no local CO2, nitrous oxide, or particle emissions. Driving electrical vehicles will even reduce noise pollution. It is both clean and silent.
Tazzari Zero electric car comes to the UK
Retailer EV Stores will sell the Italian-built, lithium-ion-powered Tazzari Zero for £21,500.
Wednesday 1 September 2010 16.08 BST
Specialist electric vehicle retailer EVStores has announced it will begin selling the Tazzari Zero electric vehicle in the UK from later this month.
The company said the Zero, a compact two-seat vehicle, purpose built for battery electric propulsion, will be available from its London showroom from 12 September.
The Zero is powered by lithium-ion batteries that boast a range between charges of around 140km or about 87 miles. The car is also expected to reach an electronically capped top speed of 100 km/h (62mph) and will deliver acceleration from zero to 50km/h (31mph) in less than five seconds, ensuring the Zero should feel sufficiently powerful for urban roads.
The car is built by Tazzari, an Italian firm with a background in aluminium casting and other engineering services. Unsurprisingly, the Zero makes substantial use of aluminium in its construction to provide a light and strong frame. Including its 142kg battery pack, the Zero weighs under 550kg, or about 200kg less than a petrol-powered Smart ForTwo city car.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/sep/01/tazzari-zero-electric-car
Think city electric car heads to the Alps
Now there is a sustainable way to enjoy the stunning beauty of the Swiss Alps this summer-drive an electric car!
Norwegian electric carmaker, Think and its Swiss distributor, M-Way, have teamed up with eco-tourism specialists Alpmobil to offer visitors to its resorts totally carbon-neutral transportation for use on their vacation.
A fleet of 60 THINK City EVs has been made available in the Goms and Haslital region of the Swiss Alps, and will be available for hire through some 30 hotels, resorts and other touristic hot spots in the area. Better still, the car’s will be recharged using electricity generated from the natural power of the area, making it truly zero emission driving. EV charging is made accessible around the region thanks to more than 20 battery charging points that have been installed in the area – powered by renewable hydroelectric generated electricity derived from local mountain waters, reservoirs and dams.
Alpmobil will be marketing the service through its website and its resorts in the region, and the EVs will be available for hire at a special rate of some €45.00 per day for Alpmobil customers.
The programme will run as a trial during peak European holiday season until end of September 2010, when the trial will be reviewed.
-----The latest generation THINK City can cover 160 kilometres on a single charge (via conventional household outlet) and has a top speed of 110 km/h.
http://www.thegreencarwebsite.co.uk/blog/index.php/2010/08/09/think-city-electric-car-heads-to-the-alps/
We end for today with food riots starting up again, in response to our weather impacted crops of wheat, barley and rice this year. If global cooling is in our future for the next 20 years, this ranks with a switch to renewable energy as the most important challenge we all face.
At least 4 die in Mozambique food riots
By the CNN Wire Staff September 2, 2010
(CNN) -- At least four people died and 27 were wounded in riots that erupted Wednesday after Mozambique's government announced increases in the price of bread, water, energy and other critical goods, the southern African nation's official news agency reported.
The exact death toll was unclear -- the news agency said other "credible sources" were reporting at least 10 people had died.
-----Police made 142 arrests, according to police spokesman Pedro Cossa, who said casualty figures were likely to rise.
Cossa said police used tear gas and rubber bullets against the rioters, but local media -- citing witnesses -- said real bullets were also used.
Three buses were burned, 32 shops were vandalized and more than five cars were burned or vandalized, Cossa added.
The price hikes are to go into effect September 6.
The violence took place in the cities of Maputo and Matola, with the deaths occurring on the outskirts of Maputo, the Mozambique News Agency reported.
Bank and electricity company offices were vandalized, and food warehouses belonging to the Sasseka and Delta Trading distribution companies were looted, the report said.
He said the government is already subsidizing the prices of food goods and gas.
Minister of Interior Jose Pacheco -- during a news conference -- had called for calm and exhorted parents to control their teenagers.
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/africa/09/01/mozambique.violence/index.html?hpt=P1#fbid=0ZR_3t_KNP9&wom=false
TH!NK city is the world’s only crash-tested and highway-certified electric car. It is a very safe car that is designed to meet the strict safety requirements in both Europe and the US as a ‘highway safe’ road car. It is equipped with ABS brakes, airbags and three point safety belts with pretensioners. The advanced frame is designed to absorb energy and distribute it away from the passenger compartment. The dashboard and knee padding have been developed to absorb impact. Both doors have side impact bars and pusher blocks made of shock-absorbent materials.
Our engineers expect the TH!NK city to achieve a four or five star rating in the EuroNCAP frontal crash test when and if the vehicle is tested.
At the Comex silver depositories Wednesday, final figures were: Registered 51.81 Moz, Eligible 58.50 Moz, Total 110.31 Moz.
+++++
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
No crooks today just the first really dangerous storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. The computer models still all show it staying out in the Atlantic, but the eastern US and Canada are taking no chances.
Island evacuations start as Earl nears East Coast
NAGS HEAD, N.C. – Hurricane Earl steamed toward the Eastern Seaboard early Thursday as communities from North Carolina to New England kept a close eye on the forecast, worried that even a slight shift in the storm's predicted offshore track could put millions of people in the most densely populated part of the country in harm's way.
Vacationers along North Carolina's dangerously exposed Outer Banks took advantage of the typical picture-perfect day just before a hurricane arrives to pack their cars and flee inland, cutting short their summer just before Labor Day weekend.
The governors of North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland declared states of emergency, sea turtle nests on one beach were scooped up and moved to safety, and the crew of the Navy's USS Cole rushed to get home to Norfolk, Va., on Wednesday ahead of the bad weather. The destroyer was supposed to return later this week from a seven-month assignment fighting piracy off Somalia.
Farther up the East Coast, emergency officials urged people to have disaster plans and supplies ready and weighed whether to order evacuations as they watched the latest maps from the National Hurricane Center — namely, the "cone of uncertainty" showing the broad path the storm could take.
Earl was expected to reach the North Carolina coast late Thursday and wheel to the northeast, staying offshore while making its way up the Eastern Seaboard. But forecasters said it could move in closer, perhaps coming ashore in North Carolina, crossing New York's Long Island and passing over the Boston metropolitan area and Cape Cod.
That could make the difference between modestly wet and blustery weather on the one hand, and dangerous storm surge, heavy rain and hurricane-force winds on the other.
----As of early Thursday, Earl was a powerful Category 4 hurricane centered more than 460 miles south of Cape Hatteras, N.C., with winds of 140 mph. The most powerful category is 5 with winds 155 mph and higher.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/tropical_weather
It is September 2nd and here in warm southern England’s Thames Valley I saw my first Vee flight of incoming geese this morning, about the earliest I can remember. Of course the might have been a flight of geese that stay here all the time, although they never fly around in Vee formations. It might mean nothing, but our visiting House Martins all left back for Africa at the end of July, the earliest I can recall too. Even the 50 strong flock of Swifts left for Africa last month, before the fields above the Pang valley where I walk the dog were harvested, another first. Do they know something we don’t?
Graeme takes the last Friday off for the summer, tomorrow, the next update will be on Monday, America’s Labour Day holiday. Hopefully hurricane Earl will stay out to sea. Have a great weekend everyone, whether celebrating Labour Day or just heading towards a regular working Monday.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August:
DJIA: +243 Down. NASDAQ: +366 Down. SP500: +243 Down.
The bull market (or bear market rally) that commenced on Nasdaq on 30/4/09 at 1717 has ended. (30/5/09 SP 500 at 919, 30/5/09 DJIA 8500.) While the indicators can flip flop at market turns, this action is rare on the slow monthly indicators. August is the third down month in a row and “crash season” approaches.
