Baltic
Dry Index. 2025 +08 Brent Crude 65.90
Spot Gold 3361 US 2 Year Yield 3.67 -0.05
US Federal Debt. 37.229 trillion
US GDP 30.199 trillion.
To contract new debts is not the way to pay old ones.
George Washington
Another day and more AI bubble new highs in the US stock casinos, what could possibly go wrong?
Well US debt of 37 trillion on a boom times GDP of only 30 trillion is a massive cause for concern.
Though declining, the US dollar is still the reserve trading currency of the world, and its not easily replaced, even by central bank digital currencies.
Nor would any replacement be as efficient, convenient and acceptable. Yet that global de-dollarisation is where the global economy is headed without serious financial reform in Washington, District of Crooks.
With no chance of reform under President Trump and a likelihood of the Democrats retaking the House of Representatives next year, and a possibility of retaking the Senate, reform if it ever happens, seems at least 2029-2030 away.
Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed as investors bet
on Fed rate cut
Updated Thu, Aug 14 2025 10:05 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Thursday
as investors bet on a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve next month.
Investors are also watching Australian
markets after the country’s unemployment rate eased to 4.2% on a
seasonally-adjusted basis in July, in line with estimates of economists polled
by Reuters.
China and Hong Kong stocks open mixed
Chinese and Hong Kong stocks traded mixed
Thursday.
As of 9:32 a.m. local time (9:32 p.m. ET
Wednesday), the Hang Seng
Index rose 0.58%, while mainland’s CSI 300 was flat.
— Nur Hikmah Md Ali
Asia-Pacific markets start the day mixed
Asia-Pacific markets opened mixed
Thursday.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 benchmark fell
0.31%, reversing course from its record high close in the previous session.
Meanwhile, the broader Topix index lost 0.64%, as of 8:05 a.m. Singapore time
(8:05 p.m. ET Wednesday).
In South Korea, the Kospi index added 0.39%,
while the small-cap Kosdaq was flat.
Over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 benchmark
increased by 0.49%.
— Amala Balakrishner
Asia
stock markets today: live updates
Positive European market sentiment wavers as
traders await UK and EU growth data
Updated Thu, Aug 14 2025 12:37 AM EDT
Good morning from London, and welcome to
CNBC’s live blog covering all the action and business news in European
financial markets on Thursday.
Futures data from IG suggests a generally
positive open for European indexes, with London’s FTSE 100 seen opening 0.15%
higher, France’s CAC 40 and
Germany’s DAX are
seen opening around the flatline, and Italy’s FTSE MIB slightly higher.
The pullback in sentiment among European
bourses comes ahead of the latest indicator of the state of health of major
regional economies, with gross domestic product readings from the U.K. and
European Union on Thursday.
European markets had ended the day higher
on Wednesday, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index rising 0.55% after
the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rallied to
new records yesterday. Investors are gearing up for more inflation data to
assess the state of the U.S. economy.
The producer price index, due Thursday,
will be significant factors in the direction interest rates take at the Federal
Reserve’s next meeting in September.
— Holly Ellyatt
European
markets on Thurs Aug 14
Stock futures are little changed as
investors await more inflation data: Live updates
Updated Thu, Aug 14 2025 8:01 PM EDT
Stock futures were relatively unchanged on
Wednesday after the S&P
500 and Nasdaq
Composite rallied to new records and as investors gear up for more
data to assess the state of the U.S. economy.
S&P 500 futures were
hovering around the flatline, as were Nasdaq 100 futures. Futures tied to the Dow
Jones Industrial Average rose 13 points, or 0.03%.
The moves come after a winning day on Wall
Street, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new intraday and closing
record highs on Wednesday for the second day in a row. Both indexes finished
the session with a gain of 0.32% and 0.14%, respectively. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average also rose 463.66 points, or 1.04%.
Tuesday’s session had returned the broad
market S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq to record territory on the back of
a cooler-than-expected
inflation report for July. That report stoked hopes among investors
for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve at the end of its September policy
meeting.
More economic data releases are on the
docket for Thursday. July’s producer price index reading – as well as jobless
claims data for the week ended Aug. 9 – is slated for release at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Economists polled by Dow Jones are expecting the measure of wholesale prices to
show a 0.2% rise on the month. The index had
come in flat in June.
“After yesterday’s ‘not as bad as it could
have been’ July Consumer Price Index report, the equity markets are now in full
‘easing expectation’ mode,” said CFRA Research’s chief investment strategist
Sam Stovall. “Even though Thursday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to
show increases on a month-over-month (M/M) and year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, we
think investors will overlook them.”
Meanwhile, in extended trading Wednesday,
shares of Cisco were
marginally lower after dropping more than 2% on the heels of the major tech
company’s fourth-quarter
results narrowly beating expectations. Other names like agricultural
equipment company Deere and
Coach owner Tapestry are
due to release their latest quarterly results before the bell Thursday.
Stock
market today: Live updates
CNBC Daily Open: Despite cooler-than-expected CPI,
economists agree higher prices are coming
Published Wed, Aug 13 2025 9:07 PM EDT
Don’t mess with DJ D-Sol — Goldman Sachs CEO David
Solomon’s stage name when he’s rocking the clubs in his
other life as a DJ.
U.S. President Donald Trump criticized
Goldman on Tuesday for predicting that tariffs would push up
inflation, and said Solomon “should go out and get himself a new Economist or,
maybe, he ought to just focus on being a DJ.”
In response, Goldman defended the results
of its study, according to a CNBC interview with the bank’s economist David
Mericle.
“If the most recent tariffs, like
the April tariff, follow the same pattern that we’ve seen with those earliest
February tariffs, then eventually, by the fall, we estimate that consumers
would bear about two-thirds of the cost,” Mericle said.
Goldman, in fact, is not the only Wall
Street bank putting forth this view.
UBS senior economist Brian
Rose wrote that “the downward trend in core inflation has been broken as
tariffs start to feed through into retail prices,” while Michael Feroli, chief
U.S. economist at JPMorgan
Chase, said in a note that tariffs could “add 1-1.5% to inflation, some of
which has already occurred.”
Of course, a consensus view does not mean
predictions will come true. Recall how economists were all but certain a U.S.
recession would happen in 2023 — only for the economy
to grow 2.5% that year.
CNBC
Daily Open: Despite CPI, economists agree higher prices are coming
In other news.
Almost every investor in this survey says U.S.
stocks are overvalued as 70% expect stagflation
August 12, 2025
A record number of investors say U.S.
stocks are overvalued, as seven in 10 investors say the economy is heading for
stagflation — even though their investment choices are not entirely consistent
with a mix of higher inflation and low growth.
The latest Bank of America global fund
manager released Monday found 70% of those polled said stagflation would be the
best way to describe the global economy for the next 12 months, versus 12% who
expect stagnation (which would feature below-trend inflation), 7% expecting a
boom of higher-trend growth and inflation and 7% predicting a Goldilocks of
above-trend growth and below-trend inflation.
Investors in August increased their
allocation to emerging markets and global stocks, and utilities while reducing
allocation to healthcare Eurozone stocks, and real estate the survey found.
Relative to the last 20 years, investors
are overweight utilities, bonds, and the euro while underweight the U.S.
dollar, real estate and healthcare.
A record 91% say U.S. stocks are
overvalued, and “long ‘Magnificent Seven’” was now described as the most
crowded trade, overtaking “short the U.S. dollar.”
The S&P 500 has gained 9% this year
and sits just a below record-high levels. Magnificent Seven stocks collectively
have gained 10% this year.
Another notable finding was that just 9%
said they had any crypto exposure, as opposed to the 48% with exposure to gold.
The investors who do have crypto exposure, on average, have 3.2% of their
portfolio in it.
Bank of America said
197 panelists with $475 billion in assets participated in
the August survey.
Almost every
investor in this survey says U.S. stocks are overvalued as 70% expect
stagflation
Air Canada says it
will begin cancelling flights ahead of possible weekend strike
CUPE gave the
airline a 72-hour strike notice after the two sides reached an 'impasse' in
talks
The Canadian Press · Posted: Aug
13, 2025 1:25 AM EDT
Air Canada says it will begin a gradual
suspension of flights to allow an orderly shutdown, as it faces a potential
work stoppage by its flight attendants as soon as Saturday.
The airline says the first flights will be
cancelled Thursday, with more on Friday and a complete cessation of flying by
Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge by the weekend.
Air Canada Express flights operated by
Jazz and PAL Airlines will continue to operate as normal.
The Canadian Union of Public Employees
(CUPE) gave the carrier a requisite 72-hour notice overnight after the two
sides reached an "impasse"
in negotiations on
Tuesday.
The earliest their more than
10,000 workers can walk off the job is on Saturday at 12:58 a.m. ET.
CUPE representatives say that in
response to their strike action, Air Canada has issued a notice of lockout
starting at 1:30 a.m. ET on Saturday.
"We do hope that Air Canada will come
to some form of rationale and show up at the table and truly engage us in
bargaining the final pieces of this," said Wesley Lesosky,
president of the Air Canada Component of CUPE, holding out hope for a deal
before Saturday.
The two sides have been negotiating a new
collective agreement since March, going over key issues like wages, work rules
and unpaid hours.
In an interview on Tuesday afternoon,
Christophe Hennebelle, Air Canada's vice-president of corporate
communications, said that "there's a huge gap still between the union's
request and what we can offer."
"We've offered an increase of more
than 38 per cent on global compensation — and that's been turned down by the
union," he said. "So time is running short."
But the union said the wage increases
offered did not keep up with inflation, and they were unable to bridge the gap
in negotiation.
CBC News reported earlier on Tuesday
that CUPE had declined a
proposal by
Air Canada to resolve the talks through binding interest arbitration, and that
both the union and the airline were back to reviewing each others' proposals.
That work went on past midnight on Tuesday, but resulted in the union serving
strike notice almost an hour later.
More
Air Canada says it
will begin cancelling flights ahead of possible weekend strike | CBC News
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Credit is a system whereby a person who cannot pay gets another
person who cannot pay to guarantee that he can pay.
Charles Dickens
US
national debt reaches a record $37 trillion, the Treasury Department reports
Updated
9:29 PM GMT+1, August 12, 2025
WASHINGTON
(AP) — The U.S. government’s gross national debt has
surpassed $37 trillion, a record number that highlights the accelerating debt
on America’s balance sheet and increased cost pressures on taxpayers.
The
$37 trillion update is found in the latest
Treasury Department report issued Tuesday which logs the nation’s daily
finances.
The
national debt eclipsed $37 trillion years sooner than pre-pandemic projections.
The Congressional Budget Office’s January 2020 projections had gross federal
debt eclipsing $37 trillion after fiscal year 2030. But the debt grew faster
than expected because of a multi-year COVID-19 pandemic starting in 2020 that
shut down much of the U.S. economy, where the federal government borrowed
heavily under then-President Donald Trump and former
President Joe Biden to stabilize the national economy and support a recovery.
And
now, more government spending has been approved after Trump signed into
law Republicans’ tax
cut and spending legislation earlier this year. The law set to add
$4.1 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, according to
Congressional Budget Office estimates.
Chair
and CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, Michael Peterson said in a
statement that government borrowing puts upward pressure on interest rates,
“adding costs for everyone and reducing private sector investment. Within the
federal budget, the debt crowds out important priorities and creates a damaging
cycle of more borrowing, more interest costs, and even more borrowing.”
Wendy
Edelberg, a senior fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution said
Congress has a major role in setting in motion spending and revenue policy and
the result of the Republicans’ tax law “means that we’re going to borrow a lot
over the course of 2026, we’re going to borrow a lot over the course of 2027,
and it’s just going to keep going.”
-----Peterson
points out how the trillion-dollar milestones are “piling up at a rapid rate.”
The
U.S. hit $34 trillion in debt in January 2024, $35 trillion in July 2024 and
$36 trillion in November 2024. “We are now adding a trillion more to the
national debt every 5 months,” Peterson said. “That’s more than twice as fast
as the average rate over the last 25 years.”
More
US national debt
reaches $37 trillion | AP News
10-year
Treasury yield climbs after July inflation data
August
12, 2025
U.S.
Treasury yields rose Tuesday in reaction to the
latest inflation report for July, opposite to the reaction in the stock
market, which took the latest data to mean the Federal Reserve has a clear
runway to lower interest rates at its next policy meeting in September.
While
the 2-year Treasury
yield was
down 2 basis points to 3.731%, the 10-year Treasury
yield climbed
2 basis points to 4.289%, and the 30-year Treasury
bond yield jumped
3 basis points to 4.875%.
One
basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite
directions.
The
consumer price index rose
at an annual rate of 2.7% in July, less than the 2.8% consensus estimate
from economists polled by Dow Jones. CPI rose 0.2% in July compared with June,
in line with expectations.
Core
CPI, however, which excludes food and energy prices, jumped 3.1% from a year
ago, slightly above the 3% level forecast by economists. On a monthly basis,
core CPI rose 0.3% from June, matching economists' estimate.
"The
inflation report was largely as expected with core consumer goods not ringing
any alarm bells yet," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at
FWDBONDS.
Elsewhere,
investors followed the latest updates on global trade and U.S. tariff policy.
The
U.S. and China agreed to extend
their tariff truce by
another 90 days, with major disagreements still blocking a final accord. Both
sides aim to hold a leaders' summit later this year to resolve the deadlock.
10-year Treasury yield climbs after July inflation data
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
BMO Global Commodities Research
Critical
Minerals: Policy Apathy Persists Despite Growing Trade Barriers Bottom Line:
August 12, 2025 | 10:31 ET
"Critical minerals" continue
to capture the imagination of investors and global policymakers alike,
especially in the wake of a raft of supportive policies from the Trump
Administration in recent months. Our analysis demonstrates how critical minerals
trade is becoming increasingly restrictive: despite making up 3% of global
trade, critical minerals represent ~30% of all export restrictions introduced
worldwide since 2010, according to the OECD. In spite of this, most
policymakers worldwide seem to be more comfortable talking about critical
minerals than actually investing in supply security, with "plans" and
"lists" rife but concrete financial commitments scarce (with the
conspicuous exception of the U.S.). Key Points The definition of
"critical" depends on where you are. While no formal definition
exists, metals and minerals are described as "critical" if they
satisfy both criteria of 1) being important to a country's general function (in
either an economic, defense, or infrastructural capacity), and 2) facing a
material risk of supply disruption. These criteria vary significantly
worldwide, with some metals being deemed "critical" by some countries
but not by others; however, minerals used in defense applications and e
mobility are universally regarded as "critical" among major
economies. Chinese supply chain control is a key theme in western critical
mineral lists. Between half and two thirds of all elements listed on the U.S.
and EU's critical minerals lists are elements where China is the largest global
producer - especially pertinent given China's recent attempts to capitalize on
its dominance of some of these elements via export controls (namely for
tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium, molybdenum, rare earths, and several
semiconductor metals). Trade of critical minerals is becoming more restrictive
over time. OECD data suggests that countries collectively introduced ~5,500 new
export controls between 2010 and 2022 across a wide range of products. Despite
only making up ~3% of global trade, critical minerals represented a staggering
~30% of all export controls introduced over the time period. However, only ~10%
of these restrictions were outright bans, mostly for ores, concentrates, and
waste streams; most export restrictions take the form of either mandating
export licenses or export taxes. While everyone is concerned about critical
minerals, very few countries are willing to do something about it. While most
developed economies have published strategic plans and lists for critical
minerals, very few have shown a willingness to put money into critical minerals
through public investment or tax incentives. Strategic stockpiles of critical
minerals are even more rare, with only five countries worldwide maintaining
strategic stockpiles of critical minerals (China, the U.S., France, South
Korea, and Japan).
More
George
Heppel george.heppel@bmo.com Analyst +44 (0)20 7664 8106
Analyst
Helen Amos helen.amos@bmo.com
Alona
Yunda alona.yunda@bmo.com
Abigail
Knight abigail.knight@bmo.com
Legal
Entity: +44 (0)20 7664 8180 Senior
Associate +44 (0) 789 479 7518
Senior
Associate +44 (0) 77 2132 6394
BMO Capital Markets Limited
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Some
debts are fun while you are acquiring them, But none are fun when you set about
retiring them.
Ogden
Nash
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