Baltic
Dry Index. 2041 +97 Brent Crude 67.26
Spot Gold 3376 US 2 Year Yield 3.63 -05
US Federal Debt. 37.283 trillion
US GDP 30.227 trillion.
The first requisite of a sound monetary system is that it put the least possible power over the quantity or quality of money in the hands of the politicians.
Henry Hazlitt
In the stock casinos, the great calm before the Great Storm if President Trump gets his way to a politicised, Latin American style, inflationary US central bank.
With the end of the month and dress up Friday coming up, followed in America by the end of summer, Labor Day holiday, I can only hope that someone in Team Trump’s yes men, will persuade President Trump why a Latin American style US central bank is a disastrous idea for the USA and the west.
Trump’s 50 percent tariff on India begins.
Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed as investors
assess China industrial profits data
Published Tue, Aug 26 2025 7:50 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on
Wednesday, breaking ranks with Wall Street, as investors assessed China
industrial profits data.
China’s industrial profits slipped 1.5%
from a year earlier in July, marking a notable recovery following months of
steeper declines.
Separately, steep U.S. tariffs on India
are set to take effect. Additional tariffs of 25% are set to take effect
Wednesday, pushing overall duties on exports to the U.S. to 50%. Indian markets
are closed for a holiday.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was marginally
higher. Photographic equipment manufacturer Nikon Corporation led gains in the
index, surging over 20% as of 10.04 p.m. ET Tuesday, as EssilorLuxottica, the
maker of Ray-Ban sunglasses is looking at a potential deal to
raise its stake in Nikon, according to Bloomberg.
The broader Topix index was down 0.3%.
South Korea’s Kospi declined 0.17%,
falling for a second straight session. The small-cap Kosdaq lost 0.16%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.15%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was 0.27%
higher, while the mainland CSI 300 rose 0.4%. The index snapped its four-day
winning streak on Wednesday. The CSI 300 has been surging recently, with some
economists and banks such as Nomura pointing to “irrational exuberance.”
“Sentiment is becoming excessively
optimistic,” said Hao Hong, managing partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management.
However, he noted that it is still “too early” to call the market a bubble.
“Given the improving liquidity conditions
and a dovish Fed, any correction will tend to be shallow and brief,” he added.
The mainland Chinese index climbed over
13% so far this year.
Overnight stateside, the three major
benchmarks ended the trading day higher. The S&P 500 rose as Wall
Street looked beyond President Donald Trump’s removal
of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook from the central bank’s board
and awaited quarterly figures from chip giant Nvidia.
The broad market S&P 500 settled up
0.41% at 6,465.94. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also added
0.44% to end the day at 21,544.27. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average added
135.60 points, or 0.30%, to finish at 45,418.07.
Asia-Pacific markets live: India tariffs, CSI 300, Nikkei 225
US Treasury yields, dollar fall as Trump strikes
at Fed; US stocks up
August 26, 2025
NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. Treasury yields
and the dollar eased on Tuesday as President Donald Trump's move to fire a
central bank governor raised concerns about the bank's independence, while Wall
Street stocks ended higher ahead of results from Nvidia on Wednesday.
Trump said on Monday he was firing Federal
Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over claims of mortgage borrowing impropriety. Cook
said Trump had no authority to fire her and she would not resign. Her term is
due to end in 2038.
The unprecedented move by Trump could lead
to a protracted legal battle that risks resetting norms for the central bank's
independence and a president's involvement in monetary policy. Cook's exit from
the Fed could speed up Trump's efforts to reshape the Federal Open Market
Committee, which sets interest rate policy.
Trump has been pushing the Fed to cut
rates to stimulate growth and reduce borrowing costs.
Expectations of a potentially more dovish
Fed helped to send shorter-dated yields lower, while the yield curve steepened
as the long end showed a more modest drop. Market participants said long-dated
yields were likely to feel more upward pressure from political influence over
the Fed, since a subsequent lowering of interest rates could increase worries
about inflation, while foreign demand could be hit by fears over the Fed's
credibility.
Despite remaining inflation pressures,
traders have been pricing in a 25-basis-point interest rate cut for the Fed's
September policy meeting, encouraged by dovish signals from Fed Chair Jerome
Powell, data pointing to labor market weakness and a shakeup at the central
bank.
"On Friday, we had a major catalyst,
which was a green light from the Fed to begin cutting rates. The market was
waiting for that for a long time. Now the question becomes how much will they
cut and how fast will they cut," said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of 50
Park Investments in New York.
The dollar fell against major currencies
in the wake of the Cook news.
"President Trump is undertaking a
risky and possibly ineffective battle against the Fed. To get a majority of the
FOMC to toe the Trump line would take seven voters, not just two or even
four," Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, wrote.
Trump has regularly threatened to dismiss
Powell and this month he fired a top Labor Department official after accusing
her, without evidence, of manipulating jobs data that had disappointed him.
Trump has backed away from the threat against Powell as he gets closer to the
expiration of his term next May.
INFLATION REPORT
A global stock index was little changed,
while U.S. stocks ended higher. Investors are awaiting Nvidia's results on
Wednesday and Friday's reading on U.S. personal consumption prices, considered
the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
"The market is very much focused on
inflation, the labor market, consumer spending and corporate earnings. That -
pun intended - trumps everything," said Oliver Pursche, senior vice
president and adviser for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut.
----European shares dropped, led by
losses in France where political uncertainty has deepened. France's CAC 40 fell
more than 1% as the country's minority government looked increasingly likely to
be ousted next month.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index ended
0.83% lower.
The dollar index, which measures the
greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the
euro, fell 0.27% to 98.21, while the euro was up 0.03% at $1.1646. Against
the Japanese yen, the dollar weakened 0.05% to 147.33.
The 2-year note US2YT=RR yield typically
moves in step with interest rate expectations. It was last down 4.9 basis
points on the day at 3.681%. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes
US10YT=RR fell 1.7 basis points to 4.258%.
Oil prices fell more than 2%, while gold
rose. Brent crude was down $1.58, or 2.3%, at $67.22 a barrel, a day after
hitting its highest price since early August. West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
crude lost $1.55, or about 2.4%, to $63.25. Spot gold rose 0.8% to $3,393.30 an
ounce.
US
Treasury yields, dollar fall as Trump strikes at Fed; US stocks up
Trump's 50% tariff on India kicks in as Modi urges
self-reliance
27 August 2025, 00:37 BST
Donald Trump's steep 50% tariffs on India
have kicked in, weeks after the US president issued an executive order hitting
the Asian country with an additional 25% penalty over its purchases of Russian
oil and weapons.
This makes India - one of the US's
strongest partners in the Indo-Pacific - among the countries paying the highest
tariffs in the world. This could deal a blow to exports and growth in the
world's fifth largest economy, given that the US was, until recently, India's
largest trading partner.
The tariff setback has sent the Indian
government into firefighting mode. Earlier this month, Indian Prime Minister
Narendra Modi made a promise to cut taxes to mitigate their economic impact. He
has also rallied for domestic self-reliance.
He said that a Diwali gift in the form of
a "massive tax bonanza" was on its way for the common man and the
millions of small businesses that power Asia's third largest economy.
Wearing a bright saffron turban and
addressing crowds of spectators from the ramparts of Delhi's Red Fort during
Independence Day celebrations, Modi also urged small shop owners and businesses
to put up boards of "Swadeshi" or "Made in India" outside
their stores.
"We should become self-reliant - not
out of desperation, but out of pride," he said. "Economic selfishness
is on the rise globally and we mustn't sit and cry about our difficulties, we
must rise above and not allow others to hold us in their clutches."
He has since repeated these comments in at
least two other public addresses this week.
For many watching, this is clearly aimed
at countering Donald Trump's brutal 50% tariff rate on India which will disrupt millions of
livelihoods across the country's export-driven industries that
supply everything from clothes to diamonds and shrimp to American consumers.
Amid the blow, Modi's message to his
countrymen has been loud and clear - both make in India and spend in India.
More
Donald Trump's 50%
tariff on India kicks in as PM Modi urges self-reliance - BBC News
In other news, Trumping America into Latin
America.
Cook Firing Might Be A Warning To Powell
Aug. 26, 2025 7:28 AM ET
The drama at the Federal Reserve is
continuing after President Trump fired Governor Lisa Cook, who promptly
responded that she will remain in the position and not resign. At issue are
allegations of mortgage fraud, with Cook listing two properties she bought in
2021 (in Georgia and Michigan) as both her primary
residences.
That declaration generally results in lower mortgage rates, but Cook said she
is still "gathering the accurate information to answer any legitimate
questions and provide the facts."
What the law says: Things are legally murky, and there is a lack of
precedent, as no president has ever sought to
remove a Federal Reserve governor. The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 only
permits removal for "cause," which Cook maintains doesn't exist in
this case. However, Trump has pointed to the alleged charges of
"negligence" and "deceitful and potentially criminal conduct in
a financial matter," which challenge her "competence and
trustworthiness as a financial regulator."
What happens next will soon be seen, but the case could end up at the Supreme
Court. The dollar and U.S. Treasuries have not responded significantly after
the latest step to remake the Fed board, which follows Governor Adriana
Kugler's resignation and
Trump's nomination of Council of Economic Advisors Chair Stephen Miran. Much
pressure has also been put on Fed Chair Jay Powell, who recently hinted at rate
cuts in Jackson Hole.
The latest targeting of Lisa Cook for criminal acts might be another message to
Powell to get out of the way or risk being taken
to task over renovations at the Fed.
Fine print: While Powell's term as board chairman expires in May
2026, he could stay on as Fed governor for another two years, which is the real
worry of the Trump administration. In that role, Powell could be somewhat of a
shadow Fed chair, especially with around 3 out of the remaining 5 Fed board
governors subscribing to his policy views (Miran is in the middle of a
confirmation process). The reason why Trump is upping the pressure is that he
wants Powell to be uncomfortable - or legally worried - about continuing in a
governor spot past next year, which would give Trump another nomination and a
majority of his appointees on the board (even without Cook). Making sense of
Federal Reserve member math
Cook Firing Might
Be A Warning To Powell | Seeking Alpha
Panic in the US as country 'abandoned' by tourists
from around the world
25 August 2025
Fears are mounting over
multi-billion-dollar losses as tourists abandon
the USA.
Its tourism and aviation sectors are reportedly seeing a sharp decline in
travel from Latin America, Europe, Africa, and Asia, impacting visitor
spending.
According to figures from the National
Travel and Tourism Office, inbound visits from overseas markets, excluding
Canada and Mexico, dropped by 3.4% year on year in June, with 2.8 million
travellers recorded in the month. That is just 80% of the numbers seen before
the pandemic, in June 2019. It has been attributed to a combination of factors,
including geopolitical
tensions,
economic challenges, and a diminished perception of the country among
international travellers, reports
ITIJ.
The trend has been witnessed throughout
the year, with a sharp drop in
inbound travel in
March 2025, according to international arrivals data from the US Department of
Commerce.
UK arrivals were down nearly 15% year on
year in March, Germany plunged more than 28%, and other key markets, such as
Spain, Colombia, Ireland, Ecuador, and the Dominican Republic, saw double-digit
drops between 24% and 33%.
Fears around border crossings also play a
part, according to Travel
and Tour World. Carriers
connecting the US have seen many travellers either delay trips or reroute
itineraries due to visa restrictions and increasingly strict border inspection
procedures.
Customs and Border Protection officers
have the authority to examine phones when determining whether travellers can
enter the country, and passengers have reported being denied entry due to this.
In March, a French scientist who had been
critical of Donald Trump was refused entry after his phone
was searched.
In May, the World Travel and Tourism
Council (WTTC) forecast the US would be the only country to see a decline in
international visitor spending in 2025, among the 184 economies it analysed
with Oxford Economics.
It forecast this would have a huge impact on
the US economy,
and that international visitor spending could reduce by $12.5 billion this
year, down from $181 billion in 2024.
While aviation and tourism industries are
hard hit, the WTTC said it represents a direct blow to the US economy overall,
impacting communities, jobs, and businesses.
"While other nations are rolling out
the welcome mat, the US government is putting up the 'closed' sign,"
warned Julia Simpson, president and CEO of WTTC.
Panic in the US as
country 'abandoned' by tourists from around the world
A Latin American style, politicised US
central bank brings in the next phase of the end of the fiat dollar reserve
standard, see yesterday’s LIR. A
disaster for the west!
To help restore financial “intellectual Day”
in Washington, DC, Handel restoring an earlier “intellectual day”, via a
librettists’ adaptation of Shakespeare’s “as steals the morn” from The Tempest.
Handel probably had no more attachment than
I do to the words, but nevertheless geniussed up, (sorry,) this delightful plea
for a new intellectual day.
District of Crooks, reform before it’s too
late.
He was better remunerated than me too, but then he was a genius, unlike dinosaur Graeme. Turn on English subtitles.
Handel: As steals the morn (L'Allegro, HWV
55) Amanda Forsythe & Thomas Cooley, Voices of Music 4K
Handel: As steals
the morn (L'Allegro, HWV 55) Amanda Forsythe & Thomas Cooley, Voices of
Music 4K
If all else fails immortality can always be assured by spectacular error.
John Kenneth Galbraith
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
German
autos sector slashes jobs as economic woes bite
Published
Tue, Aug 26 2025 7:39 AM EDT
A
perfect storm of industry and economic challenges have weighed on Germany’s
autos sector, which has shed tens of thousands of jobs over a one-year stretch
to the end of June.
Over
that period, Germany’s autos industry, one of the European country’s largest
sectors, has seen job cuts of close to 7% of the workforce, or around 51,500
positions, according to new analysis from EY based on data from the German
statistics office Destatis.
Overall
job losses across the German industry amounted to around 114,000 in the 12
months to June 30 this year, the study noted. The figures suggest almost half
the cuts were incurred by the autos sector.
“No
other industrial sector has recorded such a strong reduction in employment,”
the report said, according to a CNBC translation. The study flagged that
112,000 jobs have been cut in the autos sector, compared to the 2019 period
preceding the Covid-19 pandemic.
Jan
Brorhilker, managing partner of the assurance division at EY in Germany, said
in a press release that the job reductions came in a response to the difficult
situation of the German auto industry.
“Massive
profit declines, overcapacities, and ailing foreign markets make a marked
reduction of jobs impossible to avoid,” he said, according to a CNBC
translation.
EY’s
report also noted that revenues in the sector pulled back 1.6% in the second
quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in the previous year. German auto
giant Volkswagen, for one, reported a
sharp drop in second-quarter profit and lowered its full-year guidance.
The
decline in the auto sector is notably a smaller drop than the 2.1% loss in
revenues that the overall German industry is facing.
Mounting
struggles
Germany’s
auto industry has long battled a multitude of challenges, such as stark Chinese
competition on costs and innovation, as well as difficulties to gain ground in
the electric
vehicle race, which some auto makers and analysts have attributed to
federal government bureaucracy and regulation.
U.S.
President Donald Trump’s trade policy has added to concerns. Germany, and
especially its autos sector, are heavily export oriented and count the U.S. as
one of their biggest markets, where the ‘Made in Germany’ label has
historically been seen as a sign of quality.
Recent
data from Destatis showed that auto and auto part exports to the U.S. declined
by 8.6% in the first half of 2025, compared to the same period last year. Auto
makers have also repeatedly warned of the potential impact of tariffs and
surrounding uncertainty.
The
industry may enjoy some relief after details of
the U.S-EU trade agreement emerged earlier this months. Autos will be subject
to 15% duties, but only after the EU makes legislation changes to reduce its
industrial levies.
The
state of Germany’s overall economy has also been a headwind for the autos
sector, with the country’s annual gross domestic product declining in both 2023
and 2024. This year also appears to be off to a slow start:
after Europe’s largest economy recorded 0.3% growth in the first quarter, the
latest figures for the second quarter indicated a 0.3% decline.
Looking
ahead, EY’s Brorhilker says he expects German auto exports to both the U.S. and
China to stay under pressure, with the former being impacted by tariffs and the
latter by weakening demand, which is also a domestic issue.
As
various German industrial giants are currently undergoing restructuring or cost
reduction programs, “the number of industry jobs will keep falling,” Brorhilker
said.
German
autos sector slashes jobs as economic woes bite
Food
inflation jumps to 18-month high with these items seeing a price rise
25
August 2025
Food
prices have
risen at their fastest pace in 18 months, driven by surges in the cost of chocolate, butter,
and eggs, according to the
latest figures.
The
British Retail Consortium (BRC)-NIQ Shop Price Monitor reveals food inflation
hit 4.2% this month, up from 4% in July, marking the highest level since
February 2024. Bosses at the trade
body warned the acceleration "adds pressure" to families already
struggling with the cost of living.
Fresh
food inflation sped to 4.1% for the month on the back of rising dairy prices,
up from 3.2% in July.
Meanwhile,
ambient food inflation slowed to 4.2% year-on-year compared with 5.1% in the
previous month.
The
new figures also showed that overall shop price inflation increased to 0.9% in
August, despite price deflation of 0.8% for non-food products.
The
uptick in food prices comes after the Bank of England said earlier this month
that the increase in national insurance contributions in April had contributed
to accelerating food prices.
Helen
Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, said: “Shop price inflation hit its
highest rate since March last year, fuelled by food price rises.
“This
adds pressure to families already grappling with the cost of living.
“Retailers continue
doing everything they can to limit price rises for households, but as the Bank
of England acknowledged, the £7 billion in new costs flowing through from last
year’s budget has created an uphill battle for retailers.”
More
than 60 retail bosses, including chiefs at Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Boots, warned
Chancellor Rachel Reeves last week that raising taxes further in the autumn
budget could contradict her plans to improve UK living standards.
In
the letter, co-ordinated by the BRC, the bosses said they were expecting the
rate of food and drink inflation to reach 6% later this year.
Mike
Watkins, head of retailer and business insight at NIQ, said: “The uptick in
prices reflects several factors: global supply costs, seasonal food inflation
driven by weather conditions, the conclusion of promotional activity linked to
recent sporting events, and a rise in underlying operational costs.
“As
shoppers return from their summer holidays, many may need to reassess household
budgets in response to rising household bills.”
Food inflation jumps to 18-month high with these items seeing a price rise
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Today some good news from the Royal
Melbourne Institute of Technology.
Fatberg-fighting tech could save cities billions in sewer cleaning
By Abhimanyu Ghoshal August 25, 2025
Several feet below city streets around the world lurks a dangerous
and unspeakably gross threat to our way of life: fatbergs.
These are giant concrete-like clusters of cooking oil, grease,
nappies, wet wipes and such that congeal into masses in our sewers, clogging
networks. They're not only hard to break up, but can also grow to immense
proportions. In 2017, London saw a monstrous fatberg grow to a length of 820 ft
(250 m) and reach 130 tons (118 tonnes) – about the same as two Airbus A318
planes.
Clearing these blockages before they cause sewage backups in our
streets requires constant manpower and monitoring. In the US, it's estimated to
cost the country as much as US$25 billion a year to break these up and fix the
damage they cause.
A team of engineers at Australia's RMIT University are working on
two ways to reduce these buildups – and they could save cities billions of
dollars each year globally.
How do fatbergs form in the first place? Fat, oil, and grease
(collectively known as FOG) mix with sewer water and calcium released from
concrete sewer pipes, and solidify over time. FOG in particular comes from
domestic and commercial kitchen wastewater, and while plumbing devices called
grease traps intercept a large amount of FOG before it enters sewer lines, some
of its still gets through.
Stopping grease in its tracks
To further reduce FOG from entering sewer systems at the source,
the RMIT team built a better grease trap that's more than twice as good at
capturing fats than current systems. The researchers' design looks like a
conventional grease trap on the outside, but actually features a a series of
physical baffles which slow the flow of wastewater and separate larger fat
particles. Next, alum – a water treatment chemical – is added to the contents
to clump together smaller, suspended fats so they can be easily removed.
“While traditional interceptors only remove around 40% of fats,
our system achieved up to 98% – even when tested with actual kitchen
wastewater,” said Dr. Nilufa Sultana, lead author on the paper describing this
system that appeared in the
journal ACS ES&T Water in July.
She also noted that it worked effectively with high temperatures
and when dish detergent flowed in along with the wastewater. What's more, this
tech can be retrofitted to existing grease management systems for kitchens
large and small.
----Better pipes = fewer fatbergs
For the second part of their one-two punch, engineers from the
same research center developed a new coating for the interior walls of sewer
pipes.
First, they mimicked the setting in which fatbergs form using
concrete blocks (similar to sewer pipes) and synthetic FOG water under
controlled conditions over the course of 30 days. That allowed the fatberg to
form on regular concrete blocks, and on blocks with the new zinc-enhanced
polyurethane coating they had concocted.
The coating reduced the release of calcium by 80%, and that in
turn reduced the build-up of FOG on concrete by 30%. It's also self-healing,
which means that if it's scratched or dinged up by hard materials flowing
through sewer lines, the coating can repair itself and extend its lifespan.
That's a big win over the coatings that are commonly used at
present.
More
Innovative
solutions tackle fatberg menace in sewers
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Let me issue and control a nation's money and I care not who writes the laws.
Mayer Amschel Rothschild
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