Baltic
Dry Index. 1970 -48 Brent Crude 68.62
Spot Gold 3372 US 2 Year Yield 3.69 unch.
US Federal Debt. 37.191 trillion
US GDP 30.180 trillion.
The only way to win World War III is to prevent it.
Dwight D. Eisenhower
As goes America, so goes the world, may not be quite so relevant in 2025 as it was in 1955, but it’s still pretty accurate in 2025.
The US economy is fast disconnecting from the rising gambling in the US stock casinos and that’s of great concern to the global economy. Remember, people partied right up until the day Noah boarded the Ark.
People partied in stocks in the summer of 1929 even as the real economy was disconnecting. Is history repeating in 2025?
This time it’s different, right? Bonds v stocks, which market is correct?
S&P 500 futures inch higher after benchmark
snaps losing streak, Palantir pops on earnings: Live updates
Updated Tue, Aug 5 2025 7:32 PM EDT
Stock futures were slightly higher on
Monday night, following Wall Street’s rebound, as investors followed the latest
batch of corporate earnings.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added
48 points, or about 0.1%. S&P
500 futures and Nasdaq
100 futures each also added 0.1%.
In extended trading, Palantir shares jumped about
4% as the defense technology company said revenue surpassed
$1 billion for the first time. On the other hand, Hims & Hers Health fell
more than 13% after second-quarter
revenue missed Wall Street’s expectations.
Monday night’s moves come after a winning
day on Wall Street that allowed stocks to recover losses from the
prior session. The market tanked on Friday as the latest policy rollout on
tariffs and a weak jobs report left investors questioning the health of the
economy. All three of the major indexes ended the week in the red.
But the S&P 500 was able to jump
about 1.5% on Monday, snapping a
four-day losing streak. More than four out of every five members of the
benchmark average advanced in the session.
The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged
nearly 2%, while the Dow climbed
about 585 points to erase its Friday loss. The small-cap focused Russell 2000 jumped more than
2%.
“You have to respect the momentum that the
market has had. We’re still in a very powerful uptrend,” said Cameron Dawson,
chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.” But, “it wouldn’t
be surprising to see some chop as we move through August.”
Investors on Tuesday will watch for more
earnings reports. Pfizer, Yum! Brands and Fox are among the companies
reporting before the bell, followed by Snap, Advanced Micro Devices and Rivian after the close.
They’ll also monitor economic data on the
trade deficit and purchasing due Tuesday morning.
Stock
market today: Live updates
Wall Street Warns of a Stock Market
Correction
August 4, 2025 at 10:53 PM GMT+1
Some of Wall Street’s biggest firms are
warning clients to prepare for a major market pullback as sky-high equity
valuations slam into souring US economic data.
How big? Maybe
15%. Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank and Evercore all
cautioned that the S&P 500 Index is due for a near-term drop
thanks to the darkening economic picture. Driving concern
is the expanding fallout from President Donald Trump’s trade war,
including slowing consumer spending, diminished economic growth, rising
unemployment and potentially reignited inflation.
On Monday, dip buyers moved
in to pick up the pieces from Friday’s tariff- and data- driven bloodbath.
But looking further ahead, Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson sees a
correction of up
to 10% this quarter as Trump’s policies put more pressure on consumers
and corporate balance sheets. Evercore’s Julian Emanuel is expecting
a more substantial decline—as much as 15%.
Now, with that said, there was already a
growing consensus that—at the very least—a small drawdown in equities is
overdue given the tear they’ve been on. Moreover, it’s August, and you know
what that means. Over the past three decades, the S&P 500 has performed
the worst in August and September, losing 0.7% on average in each
month, compared with a 1.1% gain on average across other months, according to
data compiled by Bloomberg. —Natasha
Solo-Lyons
Wall
Street Warns of Massive Stock Market Correction: Evening Briefing - Bloomberg
Americans are slashing their spending as worries
over the economy grow: ‘This time feels different’
4 August 2025
Americans are slashing their spending
as economic uncertainty reigns six months into
President Donald Trump’s second term.
A slew of new reports found that people
are cutting back on everything, from buying cheaper groceries to taking fewer
vacations.
Inflation-adjusted consumer spending
ticked up 0.1 percent in June after declining 0.2 percent in May, the
U.S. Commerce Department reported last week.
“Consumer spending had been very, very
strong for the last couple of years and had — repeatedly, forecasters, not just
us, had been forecasting it would slow down,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome
Powell said at a press conference last Wednesday. “Now maybe
it finally has.”
President Trump’s renewed tariffs on dozens of countries took effect on
August 1 with economists warning the levies would directly impact consumer prices. New
federal policy research from Yale last week found that the tariffs
could cost the average household $2,400 in 2025.
Then came the dismal July jobs report
which apparently so angered the president that he promptly fired Erika McEntarfer, the chief labor statistician at the
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
----“There’s a lot of consumer
anxiety,” Dirk Van de Put, CEO of Mondelez International, the company which
makes Oreos and Ritz crackers, told the Wall Street Journal.
Even before Trump’s renewed tariffs took
effect, many Americans were already worrying about making ends meet.
Some 83 percent say they are concerned
about the price of groceries, according to a June poll from survey firms, Morning Consult and The
Century Foundation. Nearly half of those polled also said they’re worried about
their current ability to pay rent or mortgage.
And one-quarter of those asked said
someone in their household has skipped meals to save cash, the poll found.
A separate poll, released Monday by AP-NORC, found that roughly half of Americans say the
cost of groceries is a “major” source of stress in their life right now.
More
Americans
are slashing their spending as worries over the economy grow: ‘This time feels
different’
State Department may require visa applicants to
post bond of up to $15,000 to enter the US
Updated 7:34 PM GMT+1, August 4, 2025
WASHINGTON (AP) — The State Department is
proposing requiring applicants for business and tourist visas to post a bond of
up to $15,000 to enter the United States, a move that may make the process
unaffordable for many.
In a notice to be published in the Federal
Register on Tuesday, the department said it would start a 12-month pilot
program under which people from countries deemed to have high overstay rates
and deficient internal document security controls could be required to post
bonds of $5,000, $10,000 or $15,000 when they apply for a visa.
The proposal comes as the Trump
administration is tightening requirements for visa applicants. Last week, the
State Department announced that many visa renewal applicants would have to
submit to an additional in-person interview, something that was not required in
the past. In addition, the department is proposing that applicants for the Visa
Diversity Lottery program have valid passports from their country of
citizenship.
A preview of the bond notice, which was
posted on the Federal Register website on Monday, said the pilot program would
take effect within 15 days of its formal publication and is necessary to ensure
that the U.S. government is not financially liable if a visitor does not comply
with the terms of his or her visa.
“Aliens applying for visas as temporary
visitors for business or pleasure and who are nationals of countries identified
by the department as having high visa overstay rates, where screening and
vetting information is deemed deficient, or offering citizenship by investment,
if the alien obtained citizenship with no residency requirement, may be subject
to the pilot program,” the notice said.
The countries affected will be listed once
the program takes effect, it said. The bond could be waived depending on an
applicant’s individual circumstances.
The bond would not apply to citizens of
countries enrolled in the Visa Waiver Program, which enables travel for
business or tourism for up to 90 days. The majority of the 42 countries
enrolled in the program are in Europe, with others in Asia, the Middle East and
elsewhere.
More
US
may require visa applicants to post bond of up to $15,000 | AP News
In other news, a great Trumpian copper tariff fiasco. Recent copper trouble in Chile should help stabilise prices slightly.
Utah copper mine reopens after laying dormant for
years — what could it mean for other struggling rural towns?
Sat, August 2, 2025 at 1:24 p.m.
GMT+1
A long-dormant copper mine in Beaver
County, Utah, resumed operations earlier this year under new ownership — and
Canadian investors need to pay attention.
At the mid-point of 2025 and copper's
global demand, as a commodity, is soaring. From green energy to electric
vehicles to consumer electronics, copper is one of the components helping to
power what some experts are calling the next industrial revolution. As prices
for copper hit record highs and supply shortages loom the copper reserves
across North America — and the companies mining them — could see a surge in
value.
One sign of this resource resurgance is
the reawakening of a long-dormant copper mine in Utah. Closed in 2019, the mine
just roared back to life under new ownership — reflecting the rising global
appetite for this critical mineral.
Here's why Canadian investors need to pay
attention.
Why demand for copper is surging
According to the International
Energy Agency,
the demand for copper is set to surge as countries look to expand their
electricity networks, and the current copper mine project pipeline points to a
30% supply deficit by 2035. In other words, demand is expected to far outpace
supply.
Then there are global factors. In July,
the price of copper reached record highs after current American President
Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports beginning August 1, 2025.
Given that copper is the “metal of electrification” and whether it’s used for
wire, plumbing, electronics or electric cars, copper is critical in almost all
products. The introduction of the copper tariff will only help to increase the
cost of the metal and add to the cost of clean energy, communication, data centre
infrastructure, to name a few.
Closed in 2019, the Utah copper mine was a
victim of a commodity slump that prompted low copper prices. But in 2023,
Milford Mining acquired it and began hiring workers, according to a
recent Fox 13 report. This year, the
company struck a deal to sell its copper to Rio Tinto Kennecott, the operator
of the Bingham Canyon mine and the Magna smelter. The contract is a strong
signal that the price of copper isn't expected to drop anytime soon.
More
Traders rushed to stockpile copper before Trump's
tariffs. Now they're stuck with a lot of it.
Jul 31, 2025, 6:48 AM BST
Copper traders were caught off guard on
Wednesday after refined copper was excluded from President Donald Trump's new
tariffs, leaving them with large
stockpiles and
rapidly falling prices.
On Wednesday, copper futures on New York's
COMEX exchange plunged 20% in one day — the largest intraday drop since the
contract began trading in 1988.
The sell-off followed the Trump
administration's decision to exempt refined copper from a sweeping 50%
import tariff that
takes effect August 1.
Instead, the tariff will only apply to
semi-finished copper products like pipes, wires, and sheets, but not to refined
copper, the most widely imported form of the metal.
The decision stunned traders who had spent
months shipping refined copper into the US in anticipation of the tariff,
resulting in COMEX prices surging. Copper is a major industrial metal used in a
wide range of applications and sectors, including construction and
transportation.
"Prices have been rising this year
largely because the market has been front-running the tariff policy and not
because the demand picture has been improving or because the supply has
actually been tightening," wrote Ewa Manthey, a commodities strategist at
ING.
Copper futures had been trading at a 28%
premium on the US exchange compared to the London
Metal Exchange —
a spread that crashed overnight.
Now, traders face a potentially massive
inventory overhang.
"You pay freight to get the metal
into the US, you then fund it or you finance it on the CME, you would now break
those financing deals to pay freight another time to ship it back, and then
potentially sell it at parity," Michael Widmer, Bank of America's head of
metals research, told Business Insider, adding that some of that metal could be
exported, but that there's also scope for it to stay put for now.
"I can't quite see this being a good
trade," he said.
Copper stockpiles at COMEX-registered
warehouses soared 170% to 253,431 short tons — the highest level in 21 years,
per exchange data.
By contrast, inventories at LME facilities
have dropped roughly 50% this year, a sign of how much metal was diverted to
the US.
"The news on copper tariffs should
eventually normalise the relationship between the COMEX market and other global
copper markets," Michael Haigh, managing director and global head of
commodities research at Société Générale, told BI.
"There was mention of a 15% tariff on
refined copper from 2027 and 30% from 2028, but the markets will ignore that as
this is speculation, subject to change," he added.
"If these are taken seriously, the
spread between LME and COMEX may not fully converge as we move closer to that
time," Haigh added.
Copper Prices
Crash on High Stockpiles in Trump Tariff Twist - Markets Insider
Codelco must send reports to restart underground
mining after El Teniente collapse, government says
Mon, August 4, 2025 at 7:55 PM GMT+1
SANTIAGO (Reuters) -Chilean state-run
miner Codelco must produce four reports on the collapse at its El Teniente
copper mine that killed six people after an earthquake last week, according to
a government document seen by Reuters on Monday, before it can restart its
underground operations there.
Codelco is the world's largest copper
producer.
The firm said in a filing on Monday that
it was committed to restoring operations as soon as safety conditions
permitted, but that the effects of the stoppage could not yet be estimated.
A document from the government's mining
service SERNAGEOMIN showed that in order to lift the suspension, Codelco would
have to hand in four reports of the collapse at El Teniente.
The reports must include an analysis of
the cause of the collapse, a recovery plan and an evaluation of its
fortification systems, the document said.
Codelco
must send reports to restart underground mining after El Teniente collapse,
government says
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
US
factory orders fall sharply in June on aircraft orders drop
4
August 2025
(Reuters)
-New orders for U.S.-manufactured goods fell in June as commercial aircraft
orders plunged, reversing the surge in plane orders that had driven the overall
upswing in orders in the prior month.
Factory
orders tumbled 4.8% after an upwardly revised 8.3% increase in May, the
Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Monday. Economists polled by
Reuters had forecast factory orders would decline 4.8% after a previously
reported 8.2% jump in May. Orders were up 3.8% on a year-over-year basis in
June.
Manufacturing,
which accounts for 10.2% of the economy, remains constrained by President
Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs on imported goods. An Institute for Supply
Management survey on Friday showed its measure of U.S. factory activity skidded
to a nine-month low in July.
Trump
sees the tariffs as a tool to raise revenue to offset his promised tax cuts and
to revive a long-declining industrial base, a feat that economists argued was
impossible in the short term because of labor shortages and other structural
issues.
US factory orders
fall sharply in June on aircraft orders drop
Top
economist warns the U.S. is ‘on the precipice of recession’ — and it will be
hard for the Fed to come to the rescue
August
3, 2025
·
Indicators from the past week paint an
overall picture of an economy on the edge of a downturn, according to Moody’s
Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi. Not only is the labor market weakening,
but consumer spending is flat while construction and manufacturing are
shrinking, he warned, adding that the Federal Reserve will have a hard time
reviving growth with inflation still above its target.
The
shocking jobs report on Friday wasn’t the only red flag. Indicators from the
past week paint an overall picture of an economy that’s headed for a downturn,
according to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.
After
months of looking remarkably resilient in the face of President Donald Trump’s
tariffs, the economic outlook has suddenly turned gloomier.
“The
economy is on the precipice of recession. That’s the clear takeaway from last
week’s economic data dump,” Zandi wrote in a series of posts on
X on
Sunday. “Consumer spending has flatlined, construction and manufacturing are
contracting, and employment is set to fall. And with inflation on the rise, it
is tough for the Fed to come to the rescue.”
Payrolls
grew by just 73,000 last month, well below forecasts for about 100,000.
Meanwhile, May’s tally was revised down from 144,000 to 19,000, and June’s
total was slashed from 147,000 to just 14,000, meaning the average gain over
the past three months is now only 35,000.
While
Trump has claimed without evidence that the jobs data was “rigged” and fired
the head of the agency that produces the report, Zandi noted that data often
gets big revisions when the economy is at an inflection point, like a
recession.
Separate
reports also held warning signs. GDP rebounded more robustly than expected in
the second quarter, but a metric that strips out the impact of foreign trade
and looks instead at final domestic demand indicated slowing.
The personal
consumption expenditures report showed core inflation accelerated to 2.8%,
further above the Fed’s 2% target, and that consumer spending rose less than
expected in June. Fed policymakers have held off on interest rate cuts as they
wait to see how much tariffs impact inflation.
Meanwhile,
construction spending continued to decline in June amid a sharp drop in
single-family homes. And the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing
activity index for July dipped, indicating the sector contracted at a quicker
pace.
For
now, the Atlanta
Fed’s GDP tracker points
to continued growth, though it’s expected to decelerate to 2.1% in the third
quarter from 3% in the second quarter.
There
are also no signs of mass layoffs, and the unemployment rate has barely
changed, bouncing in a tight range between 4% and 4.2% for more than a year.
But
Zandi said the jobless rate is still low only because the size of the labor
force has stagnated. That’s as the foreign-born workforce has plunged by 1.2
million in the last six months amid Trump’s immigration crackdown, while the
overall labor participation rate has slipped.
As
the supply of labor has softened, so has the demand. Zandi pointed to an
“economy-wide hiring freeze, particularly for recent graduates.” The upshot is
that the so-called neutral level of job gains needed to absorb new workers—and
keep the unemployment rate steady—is now much lower.
“It’s
no mystery why the economy is struggling; blame increasing U.S. tariffs and
highly restrictive immigration policy,” Zandi added. “The tariffs are cutting
increasingly deeply into the profits of American companies and the purchasing
power of American households. Fewer immigrant workers means a smaller economy.”
On
Friday, economists
at JPMorgan similarly sounded the alarm on a potential downturn. They noted
that jobs data show hiring in the private sector has cooled to an average of
just 52,000 in the last three months, with sectors outside health and education
stalling.
Coupled
with the lack of any signs that unwanted separations are surging due to
immigration policy, this is a strong signal that business demand for labor has
cooled, they explained.
“We
have consistently emphasized that a slide in labor demand of this magnitude is
a recession warning signal,” JPMorgan added. “Firms normally maintain hiring
gains through growth downshifts they perceive as transitory. In episodes when
labor demand slides with a growth downshift, it is often a precursor to
retrenchment.”
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
COVID-19 Infections On Rise Nationwide As Summer Travel Peaks, New
Variant Spreads
August 4, 2025
Fueled by a fast-growing
new variant, COVID-19 infections are regaining ground just as summer travel
peaks.
New CDC transmission
estimates released Friday, Aug. 1 show the effective reproduction number, or
Rt, above one in 40 states, meaning overall US infections are again expanding.
In 28 states the agency
assigns its highest confidence category — “growing” — while another 12 fall
into the “likely growing” bucket. No state is currently classified as
declining, and nine are holding steady.
For more info, view the CDC's interactive map
here, and click on a specific state.
Nationally, the Rt sits
at one point one one, with a greater than 99.99 chance that infections are
increasing.
Emergency-department data
reinforce the trend: COVID-19 visits have ticked upward for three consecutive
weeks.
The virus’s resurgence is
being driven by yet another version of Omicron. Genomic surveillance for the
two weeks ending July 27 finds variant NB 1.8.1 responsible for 43 percent of
sequenced US cases, displacing older cousins such as KP 2 and JN 1.
Public-health researchers
say NB 1.8.1 carries spike-protein changes that appear to improve immune
evasion, though clinical severity has not changed markedly.
More
COVID-19 Infections On Rise Nationwide As Summer Travel Peaks, New
Variant Spreads
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Electron beam solves Teflon trash problem with super-efficient
zaps
August 02, 2025
Ever wonder what happens to those old Teflon-coated frying
pans? Not a lot. Most get chucked into landfills. However, a new recycling
technique developed by Japan's National Institutes for Quantum Science and
Technology (QST) promises 100% effectiveness.
Teflon is one of science's wonderful examples of serendipity. In
April 1938, DuPont chemist Roy J. Plunkett was working on a new, safer
chlorofluorocarbon refrigerant that wasn't explosive or poisonous like the ones
used in then-current refrigerators.
He was mucking about with tetrafluoroethylene (TFE) gas mixed with
hydrochloric acid to see how they'd react when he discovered that one cylinder
that had been stored on dry ice seemed to be empty, though it still weighed as
much as if it was full. Cutting it open, he found a slippery white powder that
turned out to be the TFE spontaneously polymerized, turning it into
polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE).
What we now know under its trade name, Teflon.
At first, the expensive-to-produce chemical was strange, but no
one could figure out what to do with it. It was fantastically inert from a
chemical point of view. Nothing could dissolve or degrade it. It didn't
interact with living tissue. Water and oil, in fact almost nothing, would stick
to it, with liquids beading up and running off. It was also nearly
frictionless, maintained its chemical and physical properties over a wide range
of temperatures, was an excellent electrical insulator, wouldn't burn, and it
was durable and flexible.
It was the classic case of a solution in search of a problem.
Teflon probably would have ended up on a DuPont lab shelf and
remained an obscure entry in the Handbook of Chemistry and Physics if it hadn't
been for the Manhattan Project to build the first atomic bomb. Long story
short, the scientists at Oak Ridge tasked with refining the uranium needed for
the bomb were having problems with the highly corrosive uranium hexafluoride
used to separate the uranium isotopes.
For reasons that are still largely classified, what was still
called polytetrafluoroethylene was just the ticket for protecting valves,
pipes, and other equipment while keeping them free from residue. So, the
strange powder got a chemical foot in the door.
By the 1950s, Teflon had its official name and was finding all
sorts of applications in chemical works, electronics, engineering, and other
applications. It ended up being used in food processing, wire insulation,
circuit boards, bearings, bushes, seals, valves, catheters, capacitors,
buildings, textiles, and aircraft components.
----This chemical success story is all well and good and we could
end it there if it weren't for one nagging problem. The very properties that
make Teflon a miracle plastic also make it incredibly difficult to recycle. In
fact, most recycling programs won't take Teflon pans and they end up in
landfills.
It is possible to recycle Teflon, but it's a long, difficult
process that can involve separating the Teflon from whatever it's coating,
grinding it up, subjecting it to high temperatures, and then chemicals. The
heating alone makes it a very energy intensive and expensive job.
Now, the QST team has come up with a new method to tackle Teflon
based on using an electron beam to break down the plastic's molecules. This is
done by heating the Teflon in air to a temperature of 370 °C (698 °F), then
zapping it with a 5-MGy electron beam. This breaks down the polymer with 100%
efficiency by altering the internal structure of the molecules to produce
oxidized fluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons that can be recycled to make new
products.
More
New recycling
method for Teflon promises 100% efficiency
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Any man
who wants to be president is either an egomaniac or crazy.
Dwight D. Eisenhower
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