Baltic
Dry Index. 2008 +14 Brent Crude 66.38
Spot Gold 3398 US 2 Year Yield 3.72 +0.03
US Federal Debt. 37.204 trillion
US GDP 30.186 trillion.
I made a fortune getting out too soon.
J. P. Morgan
In the stock casinos, rising tariff discomfort. In the US economy, rising tariff prices. In the global economy, tariff recession fears.
All in all, a good week for President Trump’s economic “vision”?
The start of late 1929 - 1932 2.0.
Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed as two key Wall
Street benchmarks fall
Updated Fri, Aug 8 2025 12:17 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Friday,
after two of the three key benchmarks on Wall Street gave back gains and closed
lower.
Here are the moves for the day:
- Japanese
stocks rose sharply, with the Nikkei
225 benchmark surging over 2%
- The
broader Topix
index also crossed the 3,000 threshold for the first time
- Shares
of SoftBank Group hit a
fresh record after better-than-expected quarterly earnings
Indian stocks fall in
early trade
Indian stocks fell
in early trade Friday as investors continued to digest U.S. President Donald
Trump’s 50%
duties on the South Asian powerhouse.
The 50-stock
benchmark Nifty 50 fell
0.31%, while the BSE Sensex index lost 0.18% as of 9:30 a.m. Indian Standard
time (12 a.m. ET).
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rises over 2%
Japanese stocks rose Friday, leading with the
blue-chip Nikkei 225 benchmark
and broader Topix index rising past the 1% mark.
The increase was led by technology firms, consumer
cyclicals, and real estate sectors.
The 225-stock index advanced 2.22% to hit
41,968.68 at 11:45 a.m. local time (10:45 p.m. Thursday ET), while the broader
Topix index added 1.65% to 3,037.11, after hitting
a record high and crossing the 3,000 threshold for the first time
earlier in the session.
Chinese and Hong Kong stocks fall in early
trade
Chinese and Hong Kong stocks started the day lower
Friday, amid mixed trade across the key Asia-Pacific markets.
As of 10 a.m. local time (10 p.m. ET Thursday),
the Hang Seng Index fell
0.76%, while mainland’s CSI
300 dropped 0.25%.
— Amala Balakrishner
Asia
stock markets today: live updates
Stock futures rise after Dow posts a loss in
Thursday’s trading: Live updates
Updated Fri, Aug 8 2025 12:28 AM EDT
U.S. stock futures ticked higher early
Friday after the Dow Jones Industrial Average logged its second losing day in
the past three.
Futures tied to the blue-chip index rose
84 points, or 0.19%. S&P
500 futures and Nasdaq
100 futures both climbed 0.2%.
In Thursday’s regular trading, the
30-stock Dow closed
down about 224 points, or 0.5%, while the S&P 500 ended the session
off 0.08%. The Nasdaq
Composite outperformed and added nearly 0.4%. The blue-chip Dow saw
some sharp swings during the day, up 305 points at its high and down nearly 394
points at its low.
President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal”
tariffs took
effect at midnight on Thursday, with some of the steepest duties
including Syria’s 41% and the 40% rate facing Laos and Myanmar.
Stocks initially rose Thursday morning
after Trump announced a day earlier that his 100%
tariff on imported semiconductor chips would not affect companies that
are “building in the United States.”
Going forward, the main area of focus for
investors continues to be watching Trump’s trade policies play out, said Thomas
Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments.
“There’s less turbulence with tariffs, but
there’s still plenty of turbulence. There’s still plenty of questions out there
as to how they’re going to affect companies’ decision making, supply chains,
costs, margins, pricing, how it’s going to affect consumers and whatnot,”
Martin told CNBC. “So I think there’s still a lot of a lot of uncertainty
associated with the tariffs. It’s still the most important thing, at this
point, that just has to be worked out.”
On Thursday afternoon, the president
announced that he has selected
Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, as his pick to
replace Adriana Kugler on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Miran will
serve out the rest of Kugler’s term, which expires in January, following her
resignation last Friday.
The major averages are on pace for weekly
gains, with the S&P 500 up 1.6% and the Dow on pace for a 0.9% advance. The
Nasdaq is poised for a 2.9% climb.
On Friday, traders will watch for earnings
from Under Armour, AMC Networks and Wendy’s
Gold futures hits record high after tariff reports
Gold
futures in the U.S. hit a record high on Friday following a Financial Times report that the U.S. has imposed
duties imports of 1-kg gold bars.
Spot
gold traded flat at $3,396.53 per ounce as of 12:20 p.m. Singapore
time (12:20 a.m. ET) on Friday.
Spot gold is on track for a second week of
gains, following macroeconomic uncertainties brought on by the U.S.′ tariffs
and hopes of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve
— Amala Balakrishner
Stock
market today: Live updates
Tariff-Induced Stagflation Fears Hit Wall Street
August 7, 2025 at 10:13 PM GMT+1
Wall Street strategists are sounding the
alarm that the
US economy is drifting toward stagflation as the impact of trade
tariffs begins to surface, potentially restricting the willingness of the
Federal Reserve to slash interest rates. While investors have largely shrugged
off warning signs until now, data suggest an approaching period of sticky
inflation and sluggish economic growth.
The arrival of stagflation in earnest
would put Donald Trump’s administration in the company of that of President
Jimmy Carter and the economic afflictions of the late 1970s. The biggest
warning sign so far is the historic damage being done to the US
dollar—down 8% against a basket of peers.
Traders are nevertheless focused on
near-term profits, piling into bets that the central bank will cut
rates as soon as next month. Those bets accelerated after a report on
Friday showed the US labor market cooling significantly over the summer (and
prompting Trump to fire the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.)
But while investors hope for a rate-cut
boost, those strategists warn that Trump’s sweeping new
tariffs, if they are upheld by the courts, could upend that outlook as
higher prices get passed
on to consumers and companies, reigniting inflation. —Jordan
Parker Erb
Tariff-Induced
Stagflation Fears Hit Wall Street: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
The trade war isn't over. It's just beginning
August 7, 2025
As of Thursday, sweeping new global tariffs are in place. Sort of. Probably. With
exceptions?
The big picture: Anyone who thought
President Trump's firm deadline to impose tariffs was the final word on the
trade war is about to learn a very hard lesson.
- Unlike
in decades past, trade negotiations are not a process that has a start and
a finish, the goal being an agreement that will stand the test of time.
- Rather,
they are an ongoing process, in which the U.S. can implement tariffs on
any country, at any time, for any reason — regardless of any preexisting
treaties or handshake deals.
Consider the news over just the last
couple of days, well after the Aug. 1 trade deadline passed:
- Trump,
after saying for months that a trade deal with India was imminent, imposed
a 25% levy on the longstanding ally, then doubled it less than a week
later. The stated reason was purchases of Russian oil, though he didn't do the same
thing to China, an equally heavy buyer.
- Trump
announced a 100% tariff on semiconductors, before a
long-anticipated investigation of the matter had been released. But in the
next breath, he promised carve-outs for companies building in the U.S —
creating a loophole for most of the world's biggest chipmakers.
- Japanese
media reported that their government's understanding of
tariff calculations appears to be very different than the Trump
administration's understanding, particularly comparing their deal to the
one struck with the EU.
- The
German finance minister reportedly blasted that EU deal and set off for Washington
to try to renegotiate parts of it, before any of it was even finalized.
The Swiss president also went to Washington to deal with her own
surprisingly heavy tariffs, and left empty-handed.
- New data out of China suggests its exports surged in
July — not to the U.S., but to countries that are popular intermediate
destinations for shipping goods to the U.S. and avoiding the heaviest
tariffs. Trump's new tariff regime includes a 40% levy on such "transshipments,"
but the administration has put off explaining how that'll work.
Reality check: The Conference
Board and Business Council's quarterly survey of CEO sentiment improved sharply in July, as
"tariffs and trade" dropped sharply on the list of their concerns.
- The
improvement is a continuation of the trend seen after tariff disputes
between the U.S. and China became less intense and potentially reflects
ongoing progress on trade negotiations," said Stephanie Guichard,
senior economist, global indicators, at the Conference Board.
- The
stock market is mostly brushing it all off, pushing toward new all-time
highs on apparent relief over the exemptions in the chip tariffs.
- As
LPL Financial's head of macro strategy Kristian Kerr noted this week,
volatility across asset classes — stocks, bonds, currencies — has plunged
to multiyear lows.
What to watch: There are plenty
more tariffs to possibly come in the next few weeks.
- In
addition to the semiconductor investigation, similar reports are expected
soon on lumber and pharmaceuticals, with heavy tariffs possible as a
result.
- Sanctions
are looming on Russia, with a deadline in the coming days that could lead
to higher tariffs for multiple countries.
- The
trade truce with China is due to end Aug. 12, and while the Chinese have
said it will be extended, Trump hasn't acted yet.
- As
Evercore ISI noted in a report this week, a dozen decisions are expected
in the next couple of months on targeted anti-dumping and countervailing
tariffs on products ranging from the industrial (fiberglass door panels,
steel rebar) to the consumer (paprika, decorative plywood).
The bottom line: We're only
approaching the end of the beginning.
The trade war isn't
over. It's just beginning
CNBC Daily Open: Tariffs have come — but 'TACO
trade' seems to be still on
Published Thu, Aug 7 2025 9:38 PM EDT
Markets have still got that loving feeling
despite U.S. tariffs coming into effect. On Thursday, President Donald Trump’s
“reciprocal” tariffs hit dozens of countries, with those not named in the list
subject to a 10% baseline levy.
Aug. 7 was a culmination of quite a few
deadlines the world has faced as it rides the rollercoaster of Trump’s tariff
strategy, and while this deadline might already be in force, the tariffs are
not really set in stone. Negotiations, of course, will keep happening, and
countries could see some reprieve.
Remember, Trump walked back on “Liberation
Day” tariffs a week after all the pomp and ceremony in the Rose Garden, and the
July 9 deadline was pushed to Aug. 1, and then to Aug. 7. Steep tariffs
announced on China have been on hold, with the deadline of Aug. 12 expected to
be postponed.
So, while these might be the highest
tariffs the world has seen since the Smoot-Hawley Act in the 1930s — are they
here to stay?
Now, if you’d excuse me, the taco shop
downstairs may be opening for business.
— Lim Hui Jie
More
CNBC
Daily Open: Tariffs have come — but 'TACO trade' seems to be still on
In other news.
Germany factory output lowest since pandemic in
2020
August 7, 2025
German industrial production slumped in
June to its lowest level since the pandemic in 2020, data showed Thursday,
underlining the fragility of Europe's top economy even before US President
Donald Trump's new tariffs kicked in.
Factory output fell 1.9 percent
month-on-month, federal statistics agency Destatis said, steeper than a drop of
0.5 percent forecast by analysts polled by financial data firm FactSet.
There were particularly heavy falls in the
machinery and pharmaceutical sectors, helping to drag overall output down to
levels last seen in May 2020 during the coronavirus pandemic.
Destatis also made a major revision to May
industrial production data, saying the indicator fell 0.1 percent. It had
previously reported a healthy rise of 1.2 percent.
ING bank analyst Carsten Brzeski said the
dire data could prompt a downward revision to an already poor initial estimate
showing that the economy shrank slightly in the second quarter.
"This is bad news," he said.
"At face value, industry remains stuck in a very long bottoming out."
- Political setback -
Fixing the eurozone's traditional export
powerhouse has been a key priority for Germany's new conservative Chancellor
Friedrich Merz, with the economy battered in recent years by high energy costs
and fierce Chinese competition.
Plans to spend hundreds of billions of
euros on infrastructure upgrades and rearmament -- combined with a series of
brighter data releases since the start of the year -- had raised hopes that the
worst might be over for Europe's export champion.
German business morale rose to its highest
level in July after seven straight increases, while think tanks including the
respected DIW institute have revised growth forecasts up for 2025 and 2026.
But hard data on business activity has not
been as rosy, raising fears that the improved mood was down to unfounded
optimism.
Experts say better data early in the year
was the temporary effect of US "front-loading" as American customers
rushed to get orders in before Trump's tariffs took effect.
"Optimism still seems to be based on
a big portion of wishful thinking and is not at all matched by current
data," Brzeski said.
"For now, what looked like a cyclical
rebound in the making has only been US front-loading."
More
Germany factory
output lowest since pandemic in 2020
Codelco asks to restart part of El Teniente mine
after accident
6 August 2025
SANTIAGO (Reuters) -Copper miner Codelco
has asked Chile's mining regulator for permission to reopen a part of its
flagship El Teniente mine after a collapse last week that killed six people,
said two sources with knowledge of the matter.
Codelco suspended mining operations at El
Teniente, the world's biggest underground copper mine that produced more than
300,000 metric tons last year, on Thursday evening.
Chilean mining regulator Sernageomin later
imposed a formal suspension, and instructed Codelco to present four reports
related to the cause and impact of the accident so it could evaluate lifting
the measure.
In a statement on Wednesday evening,
Codelco said it had responded to three information requests from mining
regulator Sernageomin and Chile's labor inspection office.
Codelco asks to
restart part of El Teniente mine after accident
Trump imposes extra 25% tariff on Indian goods,
ties hit new low
6 August 2025
WASHINGTON/NEW DELHI (Reuters) -U.S.
President Donald Trump on Wednesday imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian
goods, citing New Delhi's continued imports of Russian oil in a move that
sharply escalated tensions between the two nations after trade talks reached a
deadlock.
The new import tax, effective 21 days
after August 7, will raise duties on some Indian exports to as high as 50% -
among the highest levied on any U.S. trading partner.
Trump's executive order imposing the extra
tariff did not mention China, which also imports Russian oil. A White House
official had no immediate comment on whether an additional order covering those
purchases would be forthcoming.
Analysts said Trump's move marks the most
serious downturn in U.S.-India relations since his return to office in January.
The tariffs threaten to disrupt India's access to its largest export market,
where shipments totalled nearly $87 billion in 2024, hitting sectors like
textiles, footwear, gems and jewelry.
It also marks a shift from the warm ties
seen during Trump and Modi's February meeting, they said, pointing out Trump's
recent remarks calling India's economy "dead", its trade barriers
"obnoxious" and accusing the country of profiting from cheap Russian
oil while ignoring the killings of Ukrainians in Russia's
three-and-a-half-year-old invasion of its neighbour.
India’s external affairs ministry called
the decision “extremely unfortunate,” noting that many other countries are also
importing Russian oil in their national economic interest.
"India will take all necessary steps
to protect its national interests," it said, adding that purchases were
driven by market factors and the energy needs of India's 1.4 billion people.
The development comes as Indian Prime
Minister Narendra Modi prepares for his first visit to China in over seven
years, suggesting a potential realignment in alliances as relations with
Washington fray.
More
Trump imposes
extra 25% tariff on Indian goods, ties hit new low
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
What
could possibly go wrong? This time it’s different, right? The US Treasury is
now under complete DJT control.
Treasury
to Sell Record $100 Billion in 4-Week Bills
August
6, 2025
The
Treasury Department said it plans to auction $100 billion in U.S. debt that
expires in four weeks, after selling a record amount of six-week bills on
Tuesday.
The
large buys signal the administration’s preference to keep funding the federal
government with shorter-dated debt while demand remains strong and benchmark
interest rates remains high.
On
Tuesday morning, the Treasury announced debt sizes for four-week, eight-week,
and 17-week Treasury bills. The four-week bill will see its auction amount rise
by $5 billion; offering amounts for the eight- and 17-week bills are staying
put at $85 billion and $65 billion, respectively.
A
$5 billion increase to the four-week bill auction is smaller than the $25
billion increases for both the four- and eight-week bill auctions last month.
Yet, the outright size of the debt on offer, now at $100 billion, underscores
the deluge
of T-bills investors
can expect under Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
There’s
appetite for it. T-bills currently offer yields above 4%. In the second
quarter, investors poured $16.7 billion into exchange-traded funds that hold
Treasury bills, more than double the amount seen in the same period last year,
according to the Dow Jones market data team.
The
Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee—a guiding body for the Treasury—also
pointed to “increased stablecoin issuance” as a new source of demand for bills
last month. President Donald Trump’s so-called Genius Act requires stablecoin
issuers to back their tokens with assets such as Treasury bills.
Strong
demand is one reason Bessent’s Treasury feels no qualms about taking offering
sizes on T-bills to record highs. The six-week bill sold on Tuesday was also a
record $85 billion in size.
The
boost in bill sizes helps the department replenish its cash buffer, which was
depleted while it waited for Congress to lift the Treasury’s borrowing
limit. On
July 30,
the Treasury told investors to expect “marginal increases” in bills in the
coming days and then additional increases in October.
Bessent
is unlikely to touch long-term bond issuance anytime soon. In an interview about a
month ago, he said that the Federal Reserve’s benchmark rates look too high to
issue more longer-dated debt. Trump late last month said, “I’ve instructed my
people not to do any debt beyond nine months or so.”
Last
week, Citi’s Jason Williams said he sees longer-term issuance increasing in
November 2026, instead of May. Jay Barry of J.P. Morgan pushed his projection
to May from February.
An
auction of 10-year Treasury notes on Wednesday will offer investors a peek into
demand for longer-dated debt. Auction of a 3-year note was soft on Tuesday.
Treasury to Sell
Record $100 Billion in 4-Week Bills
LIVE: Bank of England cuts interest rates to four
per cent
Updated: Thursday
07 August 2025 12:12 pm
The Bank of England has slashed interest
rates to
the lowest level in more than two years at four per cent.
The decision to cut rates from 4.25 per
cent comes after members were told to vote for a second time after facing a
split decision.
It follows the Bank’s chief economist, Huw
Pill, telling an audience of bankers and economists that the pace of
rate-cutting had to slow down to curb high inflation.
The members who voted for interest rates
to be held were Megan Greene, Clare Lombardelli, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill.
External Member Alan Taylor had voted for
a 50 basis point cut but changed to a 25 basis point reduction in the second
vote, joining Andrew Bailey Sarah Breeden, Dave Ramsden and Swati Dhingra.
This comes after Pill voted against the
consensus to hold interest rates at
a decision in May.
The
Bank opted to keep interest rates at 4.25 per cent at the last
decision back in June, although three policymakers – external members Dhingra,
Taylor and Ramsden – voted for a 25 basis point cut.
Economists have largely focused on the
impacts of a deteriorating jobs market and price-setting behaviour as factors
pulling inflation in opposite directions.
But President Trump’s tariffs, tax rises
and erratic energy prices are also weighing on economists’ decisions.
MPC members forced to carry out historic
second vote
But the headline rate cut – widely
expected by analysts and economists – isn’t the main story.
Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members
were forced to vote twice, after the four members’ votes for a 25 basis point
cut were cancelled out by four votes to hold. The remaining policymaker –
external member Alan Taylor – voted for a 50 basis point cut.
The ‘score draw’ prompted Bailey to to
call for a second vote for the first time in the Bank’s history, after which
Taylor changed his initial vote to a smaller, 25 bp cut.
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
The Graphene
Battery Era Begins: Volexion Delivers Graphene‑Coated Cathode Materials to
Leading Manufacturers Across the Global Battery Ecosystem
Volexion’s
graphene coating, which shields battery cathodes from wear and tear, delivers
longer-lasting, faster-charging, higher-capacity lithium-ion batteries
August 6, 20251:03 PM GMT+1
CHICAGO, IL, August 6, 2025 (EZ
Newswire) -- Volexion, opens new tab, a
battery materials company supercharging lithium‑ion performance with graphene‑coated
cathode active materials (CAM), announced today it has shipped its first
product samples to tier‑one manufacturers worldwide. Initial recipients include
leading automotive OEMs, top global cell producers, and U.S. specialty energy‑storage
developers, with additional shipments already underway.
Why It Matters
Inside every battery, cathode active
materials are in constant motion. Ions shuttle back and forth, particles expand
and contract, and surfaces react with electrolytes. Over time, like moving
parts in any machine, that natural interaction degrades performance.
Volexion’s graphene coating protects
CAMs from this degradation, enabling batteries that last longer, charge faster,
and deliver higher energy density, without retooling factories or disrupting
supply chains. The technology works across established and emerging
chemistries, including NMC, LFP, lithium-manganese-rich (LMR), LMFP, and LNMO,
ultimately bringing graphene’s long-promised benefits to scale.
“Every lithium‑ion battery is fighting a
slow battle against its own chemistry; cathode materials wear down as they
work,” said Joseph X. Adiletta, CEO of Volexion. “Our graphene coating shields
those materials from that breakdown. It’s a drop‑in solution that extends life,
boosts performance, and enables next‑generation chemistries without costly
retooling.”
Close to a dozen early adopters across
the supply chain are already evaluating early shipments. This list includes
global materials producers, cell developers, and OEMs, among others. Volexion
will partner with customers to apply the coatings, ultimately shipping larger
quantities of graphene for scaled deployment over the next several years,
according to customer timelines. Volexion uses commercially available
off-the-shelf equipment, streamlining and de-risking scalability.
“This is a crucial milestone in our
scale‑up journey,” said Damien Despinoy, Volexion's president and chief
operating officer. “Our customers’ increasing demand for scalable solutions for
current and next-generation battery problems has driven deliveries across
geographies, chemistries, and applications. This is just the beginning — and,
with an easily scaled solution, we are ready to go.”
Volexion’s graphene encapsulation
platform is chemistry‑agnostic and manufacturing‑compatible, positioning it as
a critical enabler for the next era of battery innovation, from electric
vehicles to portable electronics, grid storage to data centers, and drones to
defense.
About Volexion
Volexion unlocks dramatic performance
gains from existing lithium-ion battery platforms—extending life, increasing
energy density, accelerating charge time, while reducing weight and cost. Our
proprietary graphene-based coating forms a conductive, protective shield around
each cathode particle, improving stability and enabling next-generation
chemistries. Designed as a drop-in solution, Volexion’s technology integrates
seamlessly into existing manufacturing lines, accelerating global adoption
without requiring retooling or high capital investment. Serving the growing
demands of consumer electronics, defense, mobility, and electrification
markets, Volexion is scaling to meet the future of battery technology.
Headquartered in Greater Chicago, the company was founded on breakthrough
research from Northwestern University and Argonne National Laboratory.
Investors include Clean Energy Ventures and Earth Foundry.
Learn more at www.volexion-inc.com,
opens new tab.
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another
weekend and Trump tariff weekend two. Tariffs, too infinity and beyond. Have a
great weekend everyone.
I'm not
in Wall Street for my health.
J. P. Morgan
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