Baltic Dry Index. 2039 +14 Brent Crude 66.69
Spot Gold 3345 US 2 Year Yield 3.74 +0.07
US Federal Debt. 37.233 trillion
US GDP 30.201 trillion.
The benefits of a tariff are visible. Union workers can see they are "protected". The harm which a tariff does is invisible. It's spread widely. There are people that don't have jobs because of tariffs but they don't know it.
Milton Friedman
August 15, 2025, a memorable date. Presidents Trump and Putin get to horse trade Ukraine in Alaska.
It is the fourth anniversary of the Taliban winning the Afghan - USA war.
The 80th anniversary of the surrender of Japan in 1945.
In the US stock casinos, did the PPI just signal the start of Trump’s tariffs inflation showing up?
Yesterday the stock casino gamblers largely
ignored the PPI inflation. But is that wise?
Asia markets rise as investors parse Japan GDP,
key China economic data
Updated Fri, Aug 15 2025 12:04 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets rose as investors
assessed Japan’s GDP and the flurry of Chinese economic data.
China’s growth stumbles in July as retail
sales, industrial output miss forecasts
China’s economy lost momentum in July,
with growth faltering across the board, as weak domestic demand persisted and
Beijing intensified efforts to curb excess capacity.
Retail sales last month rose 3.7% from a
year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Friday,
sharply missing analysts’ estimates for a 4.6% growth in a Reuters poll and
slowing from June’s 4.8% growth.
Industrial output rose 5.7% from a year
ago in July, its weakest level since November last year, according to LSEG
data, and weaker than analysts’ expectations for a 5.9% rise.
Fixed-asset investment in July expanded
1.6% for the year-to-date, undershooting economists’ forecasts for a 2.7%
growth and slowing from 2.8% in the first six months. Within that segment, the
contraction in property investment worsened, slumping 12% in the first seven
months, government data showed.
Japan’s economy expands more than expected
in second quarter despite U.S. tariff headwinds
Japan’s economy expanded 0.3% in the
second quarter of 2025, compared to the first three months of the year, as the
country grappled with the volatile tariff policy out of the United States.
This was compared to the revised 0.1% growth seen in the first quarter, and was higher than
the 0.1% increase expected by economists polled by Reuters.
On a year-over-year basis, Japan’s GDP
expanded 1.2% in the second quarter, falling short of the first quarter’s 1.8%
growth.
The GDP reading comes as Japan struggled
to cope with an uncertain trade environment in the second quarter, with the
country only reaching
a trade deal with the U.S. on July 23.
The deal sees Japan face a 15% blanket
tariff on all exports to the U.S., including automobiles.
Australia, Japan markets open higher
Asia-Pacific markets opened higher Friday.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 benchmark rose
0.67%, while the broader Topix index added 0.99%, as of 8:08 a.m. Singapore
time (8:08 p.m. ET Thursday).
Over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200
benchmark climbed 0.12%.
South Korea markets were closed for the
holidays.
Asia
markets live: Nikkei 225, Japan GDP, China industrial output
S&P 500 futures are little changed after
benchmark notches another all-time high: Live updates
Updated Fri, Aug 15 2025 7:54 PM EDT
S&P 500 futures are near
flat Thursday night following the benchmark index’s third straight record
close.
Futures tied to the benchmark index ticked
up 0.05%, while Nasdaq 100
futures shed 0.1%. Dow
Jones Industrial Average futures rose 173 points, or 0.4%.
UnitedHealth rallied
more than 10% after Warren
Buffett’s Berkshire
Hathaway and Michael
Burry’s Scion Asset Management announced positions in the
insurer. Intel popped more
than 4% following a Bloomberg report that the Trump administration is in
discussions to have the U.S. government take a stake.
Thursday night’s action comes after
the S&P 500 was
able to set a fresh all-time
closing high with a narrow gain. The Dow and Nasdaq Composite, on the other
hand, fell marginally in the session.
Stocks were largely able to erase losses
seen earlier in the session after July’s producer price index came in hotter
than expected. That threw some cold water on the investor euphoria
that followed the consumer price index earlier in the week.
“I don’t think that one data point is
enough to change a thesis around the trajectory of inflation,” said Tom Lee,
head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. “Our base case remains that this
is going to ultimately be viewed as transitory by the market.”
The Dow has led the way this week, rising
1.7% week to date. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have each added around 1.2%.
Small caps have outperformed, with the Russell 2000 climbing 3.6%.
Investors on Friday will monitor economic
data on import prices, consumer sentiment and retail sales.
Stock
futures today: Live updates
Wholesale prices rose 0.9% in July, much
more than expected
Published Thu, Aug 14 2025 8:31 AM EDT
Wholesale prices rose far more than
expected in July, providing a potential sign that inflation is still a threat
to the U.S. economy, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Thursday showed.
The producer price
index,
which measures final demand goods and services prices, jumped 0.9% on the
month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.2% gain. It was the biggest
monthly gain since June 2022.
Excluding food and energy prices, core PPI
rose 0.9% against the forecast for 0.3%. Excluding food, energy and trade
services, the index was up 0.6%, the biggest gain since March 2022.
On an annual basis, headline PPI increased
3.3%, the biggest 12-month move since February and well above the Fed’s 2%
inflation target.
Services inflation provided much of the
push higher, moving 1.1% higher in July for the largest gain also since March
2022. Trade services margins rose 2%, coming amid ongoing developments in
President Donald Trump’s tariff implementations.
In addition, 30% of the increase in
services came from a 3.8% increase in machinery and equipment wholesaling.
Also, portfolio management fees surged 5.8% and airline passenger services
prices rose 1%.
Stock market futures fell following the
release, while shorter-duration Treasury yields moved higher.
Though PPI is followed less closely than
the BLS’ consumer price index, it provides important information on pipeline
prices. Together, the measures feed into the Commerce Department’s personal
consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s primary inflation forecasting
gauge, which will be updated later this month.
With CPI coming in right around
expectations earlier this week, markets had been pricing a virtual certainty
that the Fed will lower its key interest rate when it meets next in September.
Following the release, odds of a September cut decreased but only slightly,
according to the CME Group’s FedWatch.
The reports come amid escalating questions
over BLS data accuracy.
Trump earlier this month fired the former
BLS commissioner and said he intends to nominate Heritage Foundation economist
E.J. Antoni as the next head of the bureau. Antoni has been a critic of the BLS
and even has floated the idea of suspending the monthly nonfarm payrolls report
until data accuracy can be better insured.
The BLS has been hamstrung by budget cuts
and layoffs that have forced it to alter the way it collects data. July’s PPI
report was the first since the bureau eliminated some 350 categories from the
exhaustive count of input costs.
PPI inflation
report July 2025:
US Consumers See More of a Markup From Trump’s
Tariffs
August 14, 2025 at 11:00 PM GMT+1
More data from the government shows
inflation reigniting because of the US trade war. Wholesale inflation
accelerated in July by the most in three years, suggesting companies
are passing along higher import costs related to tariffs.
Simultaneously, applications for US unemployment benefits edged lower last
week, suggesting employers
may be reluctant to fire workers.
The producer price index increased 0.9%
from a month earlier, the largest advance since pandemic consumer inflation
peaked in June 2022, according to a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
(which may soon be taken over by a Donald
Trump loyalist).
The PPI rose 3.3% from a year
ago. The BLS report could indicate companies are adjusting their
pricing of goods and services to help offset costs
associated with higher levies, despite the softening of demand in the first
half of the year. Treasuries
fell on news of the data, and the latest record-breaking rally in US
stocks lost
steam. Here’s your
markets wrap. —Jordan
Parker Erb
US
Consumers See More of a Markup From Trump’s Tariffs: Evening Briefing -
Bloomberg
Goldman Sachs says the risk of stock-market
decline has suddenly spiked
August 14, 2025
The stock
market's hot streak might soon come to an abrupt end, Goldman Sachs
said.
In a note to clients, the bank said that
its equity asymmetry framework — one of its gauges that assesses stocks based
on the market environment and the latest economic data — was sending a signal
that the risk for a coming stock market drop had increased.
According to its model, the S&P 500
now faces a higher than 10% chance of a drawdown within the next three months,
and more than a 20% chance of a drawdown in the next 12 months, analysts said.
The spike in drawdown risks looks similar
to the spike seen during the S&P 500's run-up at the start of the year, the
bank said. Goldman's equity asymmetry framework flagged an elevated risk of a
drawdown before President Donald Trump announced his slate of tariffs on April 2, which sparked a historic
sell-off.
"The equity drawdown probability is
elevated and has increased recently. Usually levels above 30% give a signal for
downside risk to equities, and current levels are nearing those," analysts
said.
The bank said there were two reasons its
model was flashing an elevated risk of a decline:
Analysts pointed to "worsening business cycle momentum" and recent weakness in
the job market, with the US adding fewer jobs than expected in
recent months.
The bank also thinks inflation is likely to pick up in the second half of
the year as Trump's tariffs continue to work their way through the economy.
David Mericle, the chief US economist at the bank, told CNBC on Wednesday that
he expected inflation to drift over 3% as the effects of tariffs begin to materialize.
"This is likely to trigger more Fed
easing but it could come with more equity volatility in the event of growth
concerns, especially if Fed easing disappoints already dovish
expectations," analysts said.
Wall Street forecasters have been on high
alert for signals of a coming correction as major indexes hover near all-time
highs.
The S&P 500 is up 10% year-to-date and
29% since its post-Liberation Day low.
Goldman Sachs says
the risk of stock-market decline has suddenly spiked
In other news, with another US soybean harvest just about to start, will China come to Trump’s farm rescue? If China does, what will they want in return? Approx. 7 minutes.
TRUMP Now BEGGING Foes to Buy U.S. Farm Goods He Chased Off: Are Farmers ABANDONED?
TRUMP Now BEGGING Foes to Buy U.S. Farm Goods He Chased Off: Are Farmers ABANDONED? - YouTube
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
UK
economy grows by better-than-expected 0.3% in second quarter
Published
Thu, Aug 14 2025 2:06 AM EDT
The
U.K. economy expanded by a better-than-expected 0.3% in the second
quarter, according
to preliminary estimates from the U.K.’s Office for National Statistics
out on Thursday.
Economists
polled by Reuters had expected the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) to
expand by a tepid 0.1% over the period, up from bumper growth of 0.7% in the
first quarter.
Month-on-month,
the economy grew 0.4% in June after a 0.1%
contraction in May,
failing to shake off the impact of U.S. tariffs and business uncertainty.
“The
economy was weak across April and May, with some activity having been brought
forward to February and March ahead of Stamp Duty and tariff changes, but then
recovered strongly In June,” Liz McKeown, director of Economic Statistics at
the ONS, commented Thursday. Stamp duty refers to a tax on property purchases.
Across
the broader second quarter, growth was led by services, with computer
programming, health and vehicle leasing gaining momentum. Construction also
increased, while production fell back slightly. Quarterly growth was also
boosted by updated source data for April which, while still showing a
contraction, was better than initially estimated, the ONS said.
“Services
also drove growth in June with scientific R&D, engineering and car sales
all having a strong month. Within production, which recovered, manufacture of
electronics performed especially well,” McKeown noted.
The
British pound was flat against the dollar after the data release, at $1.3577.
More
UK economy grows
by better-than-expected 0.3% in second quarter
Euro
zone industry shrinks more than feared in June but GDP holds up
August
14, 202510:03 AM GMT+1
FRANKFURT,
Aug 14 (Reuters) - Euro zone industrial output dipped more than expected in
June even as overall economic growth held up in the second quarter, challenging
views that the 20 nation currency union remains resilient to the fallout from a
global trade war.
Industrial
output fell 1.3% on the month in June, driven by a big dip in Germany and weak
consumer goods production, underperforming expectations for a 1.0% fall, data
from Eurostat showed on Thursday.
Adding
to the negative surprise, Eurostat also revised its output growth estimate for
May to 1.1% from 1.7%, suggesting that the underlying trend is weaker than
thought.
Meanwhile
GDP grew by 0.1% on the quarter, in line with a preliminary estimate, and
employment rose just 0.1% on the quarter, in line with expectations in a
Reuters poll, but below the 0.2% in the previous three months.
A
recent string of relatively upbeat indicators from purchasing managers (PMI)
data to the European Commission's sentiment reading have fuelled a narrative
that consumption is keeping the bloc resilient to trade tensions, but more
recent numbers, like industrial orders and a key sentiment reading from
Germany, have challenged this view.
Still,
investors continue to bet on a modest upturn on the premise that a recent EU
trade deal with the U.S. provides much needed certainty and Germany's plans to
sharply boost budget spending will support growth.
This
is why financial investors think the ECB may be done cutting interest rates and
policymakers will sit out a temporary dip in inflation below the 2% target, as
price pressures over the medium term are already building up.
Growth
is unlikely to take off, however, and the euro zone is facing modest expansion
of only around 1% a year in the coming years, trailing other major economies,
given structural inefficiencies.
Compared
to a year earlier, second quarter economic growth was 1.4%, a figure that is
boosted by a one-off demand surge before U.S. tariffs took effect. This figure
is now seen slowing steadily before picking up in 2026.
The
monthly industrial fall was driven by a 2.3% drop in Germany and an 11.3% fall
in Ireland, a figure that is unlikely to concern many, since Irish data is
exceptionally volatile due to activity among big multinational companies,
mostly in pharmaceuticals, based there for tax purposes.
Industry
figures showed that besides energy production, every sector took a dip last
month, led by a 4.7% fall in non-durable consumer goods and a 2.2% fall in
capital goods production.
Euro zone industry
shrinks more than feared in June but GDP holds up | Reuters
Coffee
and tea prices continue to ramp up due to tariffs, worrying retailers and
importers
Published
Wed, Aug 13 2025 11:13 AM EDT Updated Wed, Aug 13 2025 7:16 PM EDT
While last month’s
consumer price index showed
that food prices were effectively flat month over month, tariff-sensitive items
like coffee beans, specialty teas and spices are showing signs of inflation,
worrying small businesses selling those products.
According
to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, coffee prices surged 14.5% in July year over
year. The average retail price for a pound of ground coffee hit
$8.41. Overall, food prices were unchanged from June to July but remained 2.9%
higher than a year ago, the data showed.
Jessica
Simons, owner of Bethany’s Coffee Shop in Lincoln, Nebraska, told CNBC that her
shop has seen prices go up 18% to 25% since January.
“We
had to put a 3% fee on the coffee because we are waiting for our new menus to
be printed, reflecting the new price,” said Simons. “But the prices have
changed so quickly that we can’t reprint menus every time the price goes up.”
Simons
said in addition to coffee, the shop is paying increased prices on avocados and
tomatoes.
“We
also have a restaurant and we employ 24 people,” added Simons. “We are at a
point where we don’t have a choice but to raise prices. Our margins are thin.
Small businesses are struggling with the rising costs of tariffs.”
The
Tax Foundation recently calculated that almost 74%
($163 billion) of
U.S. food imports will be facing tariffs.
Josh
Teitelbaum, senior counsel at Akin, said that companies that import unavailable
natural resources such as coffee or coconut water don’t have the option of
on-shoring to avoid the tariff.
“Their
ability to shift sourcing to other countries is limited,” said Teitelbaum.
“They feel stuck facing a higher tariff no matter where they import from. The
Administration does have a policy to accommodate this reality in some
instances, but it’s still a work in progress.”
Anjali
Bhargava, founder of Anjali’s Cup, which makes retail spice packages of
Ayurveda-inspired turmeric and chai blends, said nearly all of their caffeine
sources come from abroad. Bhargava’s spices are sourced from Vietnam, Thailand,
Africa, and South America; tea and peppercorn from India; saffron from
Afghanistan; and special retail tin packaging is made in China.
“Consumers
will still drink tea, but they may get lower quality products from companies
that can weather these costs,” said Bhargava. “Small, bootstrapped brands that
prioritize integrity and authenticity could be squeezed out entirely.”
Bhargava
is concerned about the 50% tariff on tea from India, and said at the retailers
where her product is sold, like Whole Foods, there is little room for major
price changes.
“The
president frames this as punishing India, but it will primarily harm American
small businesses, companies, and their employees, as well as American
consumers,” said Bhargava. “The 50% tariff on tea, not to mention the tariffs
on my spices and other necessities, will devastate my already slim margins and
could force me to raise prices that customers are already balking at, given the
leverage my large competitors have.”
More
Coffee and tea
prices ramp up due to tariffs
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Today, more on a fire hazard that will
only grow worse with each passing year.
PMD battery could have started fatal blaze at Bukit Merah, say
Singapore authorities
Thursday, 14 Aug 2025 1:50 PM MYT
SINGAPORE: The fatal fire in a Bukit
Merah flat on Wednesday (Aug 13) could have started from a Personal Mobility
Device (PMD) battery pack in the living room.
This is according to the preliminary
findings of the fire investigation, the Singapore Civil Defence Force (SCDF)
said in an update on its Facebook page on Aug 14.
The public should not leave batteries or
devices charging for prolonged periods or leave the batteries to charge
unattended overnight, it added.
Also, the public should not buy or use
non-original batteries, SCDF advised.
A 34-year-old man and a 32-year-old
woman died in hospital on Aug 13 after they were found in the kitchen by
firefighters who were putting out the blaze in a fourth floor unit at Block 106
Jalan Bukit Merah.
Two other people from neighbouring units
were also taken to the hospital due to the fire, with about 60 persons from the
affected block evacuated by the police and SCDF.
Melvin Yong, the MP for Radin Mas SMC,
said in a Facebook post late on Aug 13 that the town council has restored the
electricity supply to the block, which was cut off during the fire.
Grassroots leaders have also secured
essentials, such as food, water and beddings, for residents who are unable to
return to their homes due to the heat from the fire and ongoing investigations
by SCDF and police.
According to latest statistics from
SCDF, fires in 2024 involving Active Mobility Devices (AMDs) increased by 21.8
per cent, from 55 in 2023 to 67 in 2024.
AMDs include PMDs, Power Assisted
Bicycles and Personal Mobility Aids.
Fires involving PMDs increased by 38.9
per cent, from 18 in 2023 to 25 in 2024. - The Straits Times/ANN
PMD battery could have started fatal blaze at Bukit Merah, say Singapore
authorities | The Star
Moss Landing battery fire: Work begins to remove and recycle
55,000 burned batteries from wrecked oceanfront power plant
A January fire caused evacuations and raised safety questions
about California's renewable energy push
UPDATED: August 13, 2025 at 9:12 PM PDT
Seven months after a huge fire at one of the world’s largest
battery storage plants, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced
Wednesday that crews will soon begin removing more than 50,000 burned batteries
from the Moss Landing site in a job that will take more than a year to
complete.
The amount of construction equipment at the damaged power plant is
already increasing in advance of the project’s September start, Kazami
Brockman, a civil engineer and on-scene coordinator for the EPA, said during a
weekly Monterey County news briefing.
Crews have begun demolishing parts of the concrete building that
was severely damaged during the Jan. 16 fire, he said. The batteries will be
taken to hazardous waste disposal facilities outside California and many of
their components will be recycled, EPA officials confirmed.
“We will continue to oversee operations on the site until EPA
determines that the threat to human health and the environment from the
impacted batteries remaining on the site have been fully addressed,” Brockman
said.
The facility is a former behemoth PG&E natural gas power plant
that was originally built in 1950 across from Moss Landing Harbor and was known
for its 500-foot-tall smokestacks. It’s now owned by Vistra, a Texas energy
company that converted much of the site to a battery storage facility.
California has seen a massive increase in the growth of battery
storage plants in recent years, going from 17 in 2019 to 187 today. Many more
are planned. The plants are needed to store electricity generated by large
solar and wind farms to release it back on the power grid at night when the sun
isn’t shining, or the wind isn’t blowing. California lawmakers have set a goal
of California generating 100% of its electricity from renewable and carbon-free
sources by 2045 to meet the state’s climate change and air pollution goals.
Solar, wind, hydropower and other carbon-free sources currently
make up 67% of the state’s retail electricity supply.
But the fire at the Moss Landing Plant — the largest battery
storage fire ever in the United States — remains a black eye for the industry.
It burned
for two days, sending a toxic cloud over Monterey Bay and nearby communities,
led authorities to evacuate 1,200 local residents, and generated international
news coverage, raising questions
about the safety of battery storage facilities that
are being proposed and built across California and other states.
There were roughly 100,000 lithium-nickel-manganese-cobalt
batteries at the Moss Landing plant when the fire started. EPA officials have
said about 55,000 burned. A month after the fire, on Feb. 18, there was a
flare-up. Even now, the batteries must be handled carefully so as not to start
another fire, Brockman said.
“Damaged batteries can be unstable,” he said.
David Yeager, director of project development for Vistra, said
Wednesday that the burned battery removal will help in the ongoing
investigation. Vistra still doesn’t know what caused the fire, he said. The
California Public Utilities Commission also is investigating. A trade journal
in March reported the company
estimated $400 million in losses due to the fire.
Lawsuits claim neighboring residents suffered health impacts.
More
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another weekend and another weekend deeper into
President Trump’s global tariffs chaos. Buy now for Christmas seems a good
option. Have a great weekend everyone.
Tariffs
that save jobs in the steel industry mean higher steel prices, which in turn
means fewer sales of American steel products around the world and losses of far
more jobs than are saved.
Thomas
Sowell
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