Baltic
Dry Index. 1927 -37
Brent Crude 67.16
Spot Gold 3338 US 2 Year Yield 3.74 -0.01
US Federal Debt. 37.258 trillion
US GDP 30.214 trillion.
Government machinery has been described as a marvelous labour saving device which enables ten men to do the work of one.
John Maynard Keynes
Stocks, was that it? Are we there yet? Has the latest fiat money, stocks inflation bubble just ran into its pin?
Was Warren Buffett right to be selling out, all along?
Has Trump’s tariffs lunacy finally caught out stocks?
Is it Fed Chairman Powell hit back time tomorrow in his Jackson Hole speech?
Well maybe not in public, but what will Chairman Powell be briefing in private? Tariffs will stoke runaway inflation?
Bunker time for the next few weeks.
Stock futures are flat after a 4-day losing streak
for S&P 500: Live updates
Updated Thu, Aug 21 2025 7:28 PM EDT
Stock futures were little changed in
overnight trading Wednesday following a four-day losing streak for the S&P 500 as tech names
dragged the broader market lower.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were
flat. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures also
traded near the flatline.
Big Tech names and chipmakers led losses
again in Wednesday’s regular trading as investors continued to rotate out of
high-flying stocks. Amazon, Apple and Alphabet all registered
losses of more than 1%. Broadcom dipped
1.3%, while Intel dropped
7%. At one point in the session, Nvidia fell more than 3%, but
the stock closed just 0.1% lower.
“There just hasn’t been much
conviction behind the recent bout of tech selling, and most
people assume it will be over relatively soon,” Adam Crisafulli, founder of
Vital Knowledge, said in a note. “This mindset suggests a dangerous
degree of complacency, and it means the ‘pain trade’ will be for the tech
underperformance to continue.”
Investors are eager to hear from Federal
Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday at the central bank’s annual economic symposium in Jackson
Hole, Wyo., where he could offer insights into the path of interest rates.
Fed funds futures are pricing in a more
than 80% likelihood of the central bank cutting interest rates at its next
policy gathering in September, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
Minutes
from Fed’s July meeting showed policymakers are worried about the
state of the labor market and inflation, though most agreed that it was too
soon to lower interest rates. Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle
Bowman dissented against
holding rates steady, marking the first time two voting Fed officials have done
so since 1993.
“The Fed is worried about inflation
accelerating as companies pass tariffs on to consumers,” said David Russell,
global head of market strategy at TradeStation. “The minutes are
consistent with Powell’s hawkish comments last meeting. The bulls might
get some cold water splashed in their faces at Jackson Hole.”
On Thursday, traders will watch for Walmart earnings before the
bell, followed by results from Workday in
the afternoon. On the economic front, weekly jobless claims and existing home
sales data are also due.
Stock
market today: Live updates
Inflation Risks Trouble the Fed More Than the
Labor Market
August 20, 2025 at 10:45 PM GMT+1
Most Federal Reserve officials highlighted
inflation risks as outweighing
concerns over the labor market at their meeting last month, as
President Donald Trump’s tariffs fueled a growing divide within the central
bank’s rate-setting committee.
Officials acknowledged
worries over higher inflation and weaker employment, but a majority of the
18 policymakers in attendance “judged the upside risk to inflation as the
greater of these two risks,” according to the minutes of the Federal Open
Market Committee’s July 29-30 meeting.
Policymakers left
interest rates unchanged in a range of 4.25% to 4.5% last month,
citing elevated uncertainty in their outlook as economic activity moderated
during the first six months of Trump’s term. Their statement at the time
characterized the labor market as “solid” but said inflation remained “somewhat
elevated.”
Indeed, the biggest spike in wholesale
inflation in three years provided the latest sign that companies have
begun to raise prices to offset rising input costs. Some Fed officials have
voiced concerns that Trump’s trade war will influence prices well into next
year. —David
E. Rovella
Inflation
Risks Trouble the Fed More Than the Labor Market: Evening Briefing - Bloomberg
CNBC Daily Open: The U.S. tech-sell off
extends to its second day — but don’t let it ruin your summer
Published Wed, Aug 20 2025 9:22 PM EDT
If you have any U.S. technology stocks in
your portfolio (and let’s face it, who doesn’t?), you might want to look away.
For the second day in a row, tech stocks
dragged markets lower, with the Nasdaq Composite slipping
0.67%. Juggernauts such as Apple, Amazon and Alphabet were more
meh-nificent than magnificent, falling more than 1%.
Palantir —
the standout S&P 500 stock,
having more than doubled so far this year — spent its sixth consecutive day in
the red and lost its place among a ranking of the 20
most valuable U.S. companies.
While Palantir’s slide was partly
triggered by a report from short seller Andrew Left’s Citron Research, which
called the company “detached from fundamentals and analysis,” there was no
single trigger for the broader pullback.
Investors could have been spooked by
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s caution about an AI bubble
forming, although some analysts dispute that assertion. “In our view the
tech bull cycle will be well intact at least for another 2-3 years,” said Wall
Street tech bull Dan Ives.
Or it could be something benign, like
traders locking in profits. “Tech stocks,” said Carol Schleif, chief market
strategist at BMO Private Wealth, “have had an incredibly strong run – with
some up over 80% since the early April lows.”
Summer, after all, is far from over. Some
investors might have just wanted to cash out for another round of margaritas.
What you need to know today
Fed officials divided over inflation and
employment worries. Central bank governors generally agreed there
were risks
on both sides. But a couple — breaking from the majority — saw the labor
market woes as more pressing, according to minutes of the Fed’s July meeting.
Trump likely to pick Kevin Hassett as next
Fed Chair.
The director of the National Economic Council firmly led the pack, according to
a CNBC
Fed Survey. However, respondents think the president “should” pick former
Fed Governor Kevin Warsh.
No new solar or wind power projects, Trump
says. Renewable
energy projects will no
longer receive approval, Trump posted Wednesday on Truth Social. His comment comes
after the administration already tightened
federal permitting last month.
Fourth day of losses for the S&P
500. Investors
continued selling
off technology stocks on Wednesday, with Palantir having its sixth
straight losing day. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 closed
at another high despite inflation in July coming in hotter
than expected.
----Trump has snapped up more than $100 million in bonds
since taking office
U.S. President Donald Trump has been on a
multimillion-dollar bond-buying spree since taking office in January, investing
in debt issued by local authorities, gas districts and major American
corporations.
Across 33 pages of filings with the U.S.
Office of Government Ethics, or OGE, dated Aug. 12, the president outlined 690
transactions that have taken place since he took office. The documents were
made public on Tuesday.
CNBC
Daily Open: Second day of U.S. tech-sell off — but don't panic
Japan’s July exports clock steepest plunge in over
four years, dropping by a more than expected 2.6%
Published Tue, Aug 19 2025 7:58 PM EDT Updated
Tue, Aug 19 2025 8:44 PM EDT
Japan’s exports plunged 2.6% in July from
a year earlier, their steepest drop since February 2021, as shipments to its
two largest markets — the United States and China — declined.
The fall was sharper than the 2.1%
contraction forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with a 0.5% decline in
June.
Imports to the world’s fourth-largest
economy sank 7.5%, less than the 10.4% fall expected.
Exports to the U.S. also continued to
fall, dropping 10.1% in July and slightly softer than June’s decline of 11.4%.
The U.S. is the largest market for Japanese exports.
Shipments to mainland China — Japan’s
second largest export market — declined 3.5% compared to the same month last
year, but shipments to Hong Kong spiked 17.7%.
The weak trade data came after Japan’s
economy grew stronger than expected in the second quarter, with GDP rising 0.3%
from the previous quarter and 1.2% from a year earlier, as net exports drove
growth.
Hirofumi Suzuki, Chief FX Strategist at
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, told CNBC after the GDP release that while
exports have been volatile, there was a higher level of automobile shipments in
April to June.
He attributed the increase to a catch-up
in shipments after production recovered from an accident at an automobile parts
manufacturer in March.
While Suzuki did not name the company,
Reuters reported that there was an explosion
on March 7 at
a plant in central Japan that supplies auto parts to the world’s largest
carmaker, Toyota Motor.
Tariffs on automobiles were cut from 25%
to 15% as part of Japan’s trade deal. Autos are one of Japan’s largest exports,
and make up its largest export to the U.S. in 2024.
The value of auto exports — which includes
cars, buses and trucks — to the U.S. plunged 28.4% year over year in July, a
steeper fall compared to the 26.7% decline in June.
More
Japan's July
exports drop by 2.6%, steepest plunge in over four years
In other news, trouble at (copper) mine.
Trump slams 'anti-American' pushback after fresh
delay to Arizona copper mine
Published Wed, Aug 20 2025 4:28 AM EDT
U.S. President Donald Trump has slammed
an appeals court decision to temporarily block a land transfer needed by mining
giants Rio Tinto and BHP to develop what is slated to become
one of the country's biggest copper mines.
In a post on social
media platform Truth Social on Tuesday, Trump said the latest setback to
Arizona's Resolution Copper mine would impact thousands of jobs at a time when
the world's largest economy "quite simply, needs Copper — AND NOW!"
His comments came shortly after he met the
chief executives of Rio Tinto and BHP at the White House, alongside Interior
Secretary Doug Burgum.
Two of the world's largest mining firms,
Rio Tinto and BHP have been trying to develop the Arizona copper project
together for roughly two decades, but the procedures have been beset by legal
issues.
The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on
Monday issued a temporary
restraining order to prevent a land transfer while the court considers
challenges that have been brought by opponents including the San Carlos Apache
Tribe, which is seeking to block the project over religious, cultural and
environmental reasons.
"It is so sad that Radical Left
Activists can do this, and affect the lives of so many people. Those that
fought it are Anti-American, and representing other Copper competitive
Countries," Trump said in a Truth Social post.
Resolution Copper described the Monday
ruling as "merely a temporary pause," adding it was confident the
court would ultimately affirm the necessary land transfer.
"This proposed mine is a rip-off,
will destroy a sacred area, decimates our environment, threatens our water
rights, and is bad for America," Terry Rambler, chairman of the San Carlos
Apache Tribe, said in a
Facebook post.
Addressing Trump's Truth Social post on
the recent court ruling, Rambler said the U.S. president's comments
"mirror misinformation that has been repeated by foreign mining interests
that want to extract American copper."
He added that he was willing to meet with
the Trump administration to help "protect American interests."
Copper demand
The Arizona copper project is a proposed
underground mine roughly 60 miles east of Phoenix, close to the the town of
Superior. The joint venture is 55% owned by Rio Tinto and 45% by BHP.
Resolution Copper says the ore
deposit represents "one of the most significant untapped copper deposits
today" and estimates the potential for the project to add $1 billion a
year to Arizona's economy.
A highly conducive metal, copper is a
critical component to virtually everything in the modern economy, from solar
panels and wind turbines to defense applications and artificial intelligence
infrastructure.
Demand for copper is expected to skyrocket
over the coming years, dramatically
outstripping supply amid
the energy transition.
----The U.S. produces only about
5% of the world's copper, according to Dutch bank ING and has seen a 20%
decline in production over the last decade. Building new mines in the country,
meanwhile, can take a considerable amount of time due to a lengthy permitting
process.
----More than half of global copper
reserves are said to be
located in just five countries — Chile, Australia, Peru, the Democratic
Republic of Congo and Russia.
Copper: Trump
slams 'anti-American' pushback over Arizona project
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
UK
inflation rises by more than expected to 3.8% amid higher food prices
20
August 2025
Inflation
rose again last month to a higher than expected 3.8% amid higher food and fuel
prices, adding to fears that the Bank of England will delay further interest
rate cuts.
Figures
showed the annual rate as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) climbed
from June’s
3.6% reading,
sitting above the central bank’s 2% target for the 10th consecutive month.
That
overshot financial market forecasts of a 3.7% figure for July and all but rules
out another reduction in the cost of borrowing this year, with financial
markets not fully pricing in the chance of a fresh quarter-point cut until next
spring.
The
data also suggests rail fares are on track to rise by 5.8% next year. Increases
in regulated train ticket prices are usually calculated by adding one
percentage point to July’s inflation reading as measured by the retail prices
index, which was 4.8%.
The
Office for National Statistics said a jump in airfares was behind much of the
increase in average prices. Petrol prices nudged prices higher after a
comparison with last year, when prices at the pumps were falling.
Food
and non-alcoholic beverages were up 4.9% year on year in July, an increase from
4.5% in the 12 months to June.
Droughts
in Spain, Italy and Portugal, where the UK sources much of its fresh fruit and
vegetables have pushed up prices this summer at a time when prices would
usually fall.
The
Bank of England trimmed
interest rates to 4% earlier
this month in line with projections of falling inflation over the next two
years. However, several MPC members voted to hold interest rates until the
trend became clearer and July’s jump in CPI is likely to push the timing of
future cuts deeper into 2026.
Companies
have blamed employment tax rises and the uncertainty caused Donald Trump’s
tariff war for an increase in domestic prices, while droughts in Spain have
pushed up the cost of food.
Cornwall
Insight, the energy consultancy, said on Tuesday that it expected the energy
price cap covering domestic electricity and gas would go up by £17 or 1% in
October, adding to domestic fuel costs.
UK inflation rises
by more than expected to 3.8% amid higher food prices
No
more interest rate cuts expected as inflation runs ‘miles above target’
Wednesday
20 August 2025 12:09 pm
No
further interest rate cuts are expected to be made this year after inflation in
the year to July was higher than economists forecast.
Markets
had priced in a 50 per cent chance of an interest rate cut being made at the Bank of England’s November
meeting before fresh price growth data was published on Wednesday
morning.
But
investors rapidly cut expectations and now believe it is more likely that
interest rates will be held at four per cent, with inflation proving to be stickier than most economists
forecast.
The
Bank of England’s early August forecast correctly predicted inflation in July
would be 3.8 per cent.
Services
inflation, however, was higher than Bank forecasts at five per cent but this
was partly due to higher airfares in a busy holiday period for British
families.
ING
economist James Smith said a “larger-than-usual” rise in airfares could be
ignored by the Bank of England.
A three-way split on the Bank’s Monetary Policy
Committee (MPC) earlier this month left analysts across the City on edge as it
pointed to divided opinions on the effects of a weakened jobs market and high
inflation, partly driven by a larger rise in food prices.
Food prices ticked up by 4.9 per cent over 12 months
due to packaging taxes and higher commodity prices for coffee and oranges,
which could worry Bank officials.
UK
inflation is expected to rise higher to four per cent in September, with food
prices rising further.
Deutsche
Bank’s Sanjary Raja said the trade-off between a weakened jobs market and high inflation may force the
MPC to “look for more patience” as it makes interest rates decisions.
Pantheon
Macroeconomics, which called for interest rates to be held before the August
decision, said doves on the MPC had “taken a battering” given inflation
remained high and GDP figures beat consensus predictions.
“It
is easy to forget that inflation in July was also well above the MPC’s
expectations just a few months ago in the May Monetary Policy Report for
instance, which projected headline inflation of 3.4 per cent, and services
consumer price index (CPI) of 4.7 per cent,” Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Elliott
Jordan-Doak said.
“The
big picture remains that inflation is set to stay miles above target for the
foreseeable future.”
More
No
more interest rate cuts expected this year due to high inflation
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
This research needs more follow up investigation, since not all excess deaths will be attributable to covid vaccination.
Significant Increase in Excess Deaths after Repeated COVID-19
Vaccination in Japan
2025 Mar 7;8(2):584–586.
doi: 10.31662/jmaj.2024-0298
Abstract
Although Japan recorded
the world’s highest rate of COVID-19 messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA)
vaccination doses per capita, COVID-19 cases and deaths exploded after the
emergence of the Omicron variant, followed by a significant increase in excess
deaths in 2022 and 2023. Although several hypotheses have been proposed to
explain these phenomena, the truth remains to be established because sufficient
studies and data disclosures have not been conducted to adequately investigate
the possible contribution of mRNA vaccines. The causes of the excess deaths
from not only COVID-19 but also other factors after repeated mRNA vaccinations
must be elucidated, given this could provide valuable information to help
combat future infectious disease outbreaks.
Japan recorded one of the
world’s highest rates of COVID-19 vaccination doses per capita, amounting to
3.6 doses as of March 2024 (1), behind only Cuba and
Chile. Because Cuba primarily used protein subunit vaccines (2) and Chile primarily
used inactivated vaccines (3), Japan has the highest
per capita rate of messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) vaccination doses in the
world.
Japan was regarded as one
of the most successful countries in handling the early stages of the pandemic,
with much lower numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths than other developed
countries. After the emergence of the Omicron variant, however, the number of
infections surged dramatically in Japan in 2022, despite more than 80% of the
population having been fully vaccinated. Surprisingly, the number of excess
deaths per million in Japan exceeded 1400 in 2023, three times higher than that
in the United States, whereas COVID-19 deaths in Japan accounted for only 10%
of these excess deaths (4).
Several hypotheses have
been proposed to explain the cause of the significant number of excess deaths
in 2022 and 2023. The most popular hypothesis is COVID-19-related deaths,
including 1) people who died from COVID-19 but were either not tested or did not
receive positive test results and 2) people who died because of the shortage of
medical resources due to the surge in COVID-19 cases. On May 8, 2023, however,
Japan downgraded COVID-19 from its category as a novel influenza, which
required patients with COVID-19 to be treated only at designated medical
institutions, to class 5 (the same as seasonal flu), which made it easier for
hospitals to treat both patients with and those without COVID-19. Despite this
major policy shift, the number of excess deaths in 2023 remained as high as in
2022.
Another hypothesized
cause of the excess deaths is various adverse reactions to COVID-19
vaccinations. Indeed, under its relief system for injury to health with
vaccination, the government has provided payouts for as many as 8432 injuries
including 903 deaths after COVID-19 vaccination as of November 18, 2024 (5), numbers that are still
increasing and already greatly exceed the numbers of injuries and deaths for
which payments were made after all other vaccinations in the last 47 years. The
aforementioned cases comprise many injuries and deaths in the young population,
including the fatal case of a 14-year-old girl (6
More
Significant Increase in Excess Deaths after Repeated COVID-19 Vaccination
in Japan - PMC
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Scientists
just made vibrations so precise they can spot a single molecule
Breakthrough
could open door to next-gen technologies in sensing, computing and beyond.
Date: August 16, 2025
Source: Rice University
Summary: Rice University scientists have discovered a way to
make tiny vibrations, called phonons, interfere with each other more strongly
than ever before. Using a special sandwich of silver, graphene, and silicon
carbide, they created a record-breaking effect so sensitive it can detect a
single molecule without labels or complex equipment. This breakthrough could
open new possibilities for powerful sensors, quantum devices, and technologies
that control heat and energy at the smallest scales.
Just as overlapping ripples on a pond
can amplify or cancel each other out, waves of many kinds -- including light,
sound and atomic vibrations -- can interfere with one another. At the quantum
level, this kind of interference powers high-precision sensors and could be
harnessed for quantum computing.
In a new study published in Science
Advances, researchers at Rice University and collaborators have
demonstrated a strong form of interference between phonons -- the vibrations in
a material's structure that constitute the tiniest units, or quanta, of heat or
sound in that system. The phenomenon where two phonons with different frequency
distributions interfere with each other, known as Fano resonance, was two
orders of magnitude greater than any previously reported.
"While this phenomenon is
well-studied for particles like electrons and photons, interference between
phonons has been much less explored," said Kunyan Zhang, a former
postdoctoral researcher at Rice and first author on the study. "That is a
missed opportunity, since phonons can maintain their wave behavior for a long
time, making them promising for stable, high-performance devices."
By showing that phonons can be harnessed
as effectively as light or electrons, the study paves the way for a new
generation of phonon-based technologies. The team's breakthrough hinges on the
use of a two-dimensional metal on top of a silicon carbide base. Using a
technique called confinement heteroepitaxy, the researchers intercalated just a
few layers of silver atoms between a layer of graphene and silicon carbide,
producing a tightly bound interface with remarkable quantum properties.
"The 2D metal triggers and
strengthens the interference between different vibrational modes in silicon
carbide, reaching record levels," Zhang said.
The research team studied how phonons
interfere with each other by looking at the shape of their signal in Raman
spectroscopy, a technique that measures the vibrational modes of a material.
The spectrum revealed a sharply asymmetric line shape and in some cases showed
a complete dip, forming an antiresonance pattern characteristic of intense
interference.
The effect proved highly sensitive to
the specificities of the silicon carbide surface. The comparison between three
different surface terminations of silicon carbide revealed a clear link between
each surface and its unique Raman line shape. Moreover, when the researchers
introduced a single dye molecule to the surface, the spectral line shape
changed dramatically.
"This interference is so sensitive
that it can detect the presence of a single molecule," Zhang said.
"It enables label-free single-molecule detection with a simple and
scalable setup. Our results open up a new path for using phonons in quantum
sensing and next-generation molecular detection."
Exploring the dynamic of the effect at
low temperatures, the researchers confirmed that the interference stemmed
purely from phonon interactions and not electrons, marking a rare case of
phonon-only quantum interference. The effect has only been observed in the
particular 2D metal/silicon carbide system used in the study and is absent in
regular bulk metals. This is due to the special transition pathways and surface
configurations enabled by the atomically thin metal layer.
The study also explored the possibility
of using other 2D metals, such as gallium or indium, to induce similar effects.
By fine-tuning the chemical composition of these intercalated layers,
researchers could design custom interfaces with tailored quantum properties.
"Compared to conventional sensors,
our method offers high sensitivity without the need for special chemical labels
or complicated device setup," said Shengxi Huang, associate professor of
electrical and computer engineering and materials science and nanoengineering
at Rice and corresponding author on the study. "This phonon-based approach
not only advances molecular sensing but also opens up exciting possibilities in
energy harvesting, thermal management and quantum technologies, where controlling
vibrations is key."
The research was supported by the
National Science Foundation (2011839, 2246564, 1943895, 2230400), Air Force
Office of Scientific Research (FA9550-22-1-0408), Welch Foundation (C-2144) and
the University of North Texas.
Scientists just made vibrations so precise they can spot a single
molecule | ScienceDaily
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
There
is nothing so disastrous as a rational investment policy in an irrational
world.
John
Maynard Keynes
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