Baltic Dry Index. 2017 -29 Brent Crude 68.24
Spot Gold 3409 US 2 Year Yield 3.62 +03
US Federal Debt. 37.291 trillion
US GDP 30.231 trillion.
The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default.
Alan Greenspan
It is dress up Friday, the last stocks casino trading day of August.
No matter what the US central bank’s favourite inflation indicator comes up with later today, the Great AI Bubble will likely bubble up to new highs.
Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed, breaking ranks
with Wall Street
Published Thu, Aug 28 2025 7:40 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Friday,
breaking ranks with Wall Street as investors also assessed a slate of economic
data in the region.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 slid 0.41%, while
the Topix lost 0.39% after core consumer prices in Tokyo rose
at a slower pace in August. The Tokyo core CPI, which strips out fresh food
but includes energy, climbed 2.5% from a year earlier, matching Reuters’
economists’ forecasts, and easing from July’s 2.9% increase. The figure,
however, remained above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target.
Japan’s unemployment rate also eased to 2.3% in July, down
from 2.5% the previous month.
South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.22% while the
Kosdaq Index slipped 0.27% after South Korea’s ex-first lady Kim Keon Hee was
reportedly indicted over corruption and bribery charges. Kim is the wife of
former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, who was removed
from office and arrested
earlier this year for his short-lived declaration of martial law. The
South Korean won weakened 0.15% to 1,387.38 against the dollar.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.14%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index added 0.51%
while mainland’s CSI 300 rose 0.13%.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi
is due
to meet China’s President Xi Jinping for the 25th Shanghai Cooperation
Organization summit over the weekend in Tianjin, which will be Modi’s first
visit to China in seven years.
New Delhi and Beijing could engage in
talks in Tianjin, as India’s foreign ministry has flagged the possibility of
bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the summit.
Overnight stateside, the three major
averages closed higher. The broad market S&P 500 index finished
0.32% higher at 6,501.86 after hitting a new all-time intraday high above the
6,500 level. The Nasdaq
Composite ended the day up 0.53% at 21,705.16, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose
71.67 points, or 0.16% to end at 45,636.90, which was also a record.
Asia-Pacific
markets: Nikkei 225, Kospi, CSI 300
Stock futures are little changed after S&P
500′s record high, inflation data looms: Live updates
Updated Fri, Aug 29 2025 7:22 PM EDT
U.S. equity futures were little changed on
Thursday evening, after the S&P 500 registered a fresh record driven by
renewed optimism around the artificial intelligence trade.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped
62 points, or 0.1%. S&P
500 futures pulled back 0.07%, while Nasdaq 100 futures declined
0.09%.
Investors also parsed fresh corporate
earnings in extended trading. Shares of Ulta Beauty advanced about 3%
after hours following a strong full-year
outlook, while Autodesk stock
gained more than 10% thanks to better-than-expected guidance. Shares of Dell Technologies slipped 5%
following a soft
outlook for the current quarter.
Stocks are coming off a winning session,
with the S&P 500 closing up 0.3% at 6,501.86 — the first time above the
6,500-mark. Earlier, the broad-based index set an all-time intraday high. The
Nasdaq Composite added 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the
day up about 0.2%. The Dow’s 45,636.90 finish was also a new record.
Better-than-expected quarterly earnings
from Nvidia helped solidify investor confidence in the health of the
AI trade. Although Nvidia’s earnings initially sparked some concern tied its
data center business and only slightly better-than-expected revenue for the
current quarter, the report helped lift peer chip stocks that initially pulled
back. Nvidia stock ultimately ended the day down less than 1%.
“I think if someone is trying to ring the
bell at the top for AI, they’re underestimating how quickly penetration grows.
We’re probably in the first quarter or first third of that cycle for AI,”
Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder and head of research Tom Lee told CNBC’s “Power Lunch” on Thursday.
Investors will now turn their attention to
fresh inflation data to cap off the final trading day of August with the
personal consumption expenditures index. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect
that the PCE reading for July will show an increase of 0.2% for the month and
2.6% for the year.
With all three major indexes at or near
record highs, the gains for the month have been solid. The 30-stock Dow is up
0.01% week to date, but it has logged a 3.4% advance in August. The S&P 500
has tallied a 0.5% increase week to date, and is up 2.6% so far this month. The
tech-heavy Nasdaq added about 1% this week, which has helped boost August’s
gain to 2.8%.
Stock
market today: Live updates
But….
Nvidia’s top two mystery customers made up 39% of
the chipmaker’s Q2 revenue
Published Thu, Aug 28 2025 2:49 PM EDT Updated
Thu, Aug 28 2025 3:06 PM EDT
Two Nvidia customers made up 39%
of Nvidia’s revenue in its July quarter, the company revealed in a
financial filing on Wednesday, raising concerns about the
concentration of the chipmaker’s clientele.
“Customer A” made up 23% of total revenue,
and “Customer B” comprised 16% of total revenue, according to the company’s
second-quarter filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
That’s higher than the same quarter a year
ago when Nvidia’s top two customers made up 14% and 11% of sales, according to
the filing.
The company regularly publishes
information on a quarterly basis about its top customers, but the disclosure
this week is fueling a renewed debate about whether Nvidia’s explosive growth
is being driven by a handful of large cloud providers such as Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Oracle.
Nvidia finance chief Colette Kress said in
a Wednesday statement that “large cloud service providers” made up about 50% of
the company’s data center revenue. That’s important as the data center business
made up 88% of Nvidia’s overall revenue in the second quarter.
“We have experienced periods where we
receive a significant amount of our revenue from a limited number of customers,
and this trend may continue,” Nvidia wrote in the filing.
Increasingly, analysts are looking to
those cloud capital expenditure spending commitments to model the future growth
of Nvidia.
“We see limited room for further earnings
upside revision or share price catalyst in the near-term unless we have
increasing clarity over upside in 2026 [cloud service provider] capex
expectations,” wrote HSBC analyst Frank Lee in a note on Thursday. He has a
hold rating on the stock.
But Nvidia’s Customer A and Customer B are
not necessarily cloud providers. It’s a bit of a mystery, and an Nvidia
representative declined to share the identities of Customer A and Customer B.
In its filing, Nvidia says it has both
“direct customers” and “indirect customers.” Customer A and Customer B are
listed as “direct customers.”
Direct customers are not the end users of
Nvidia’s chips. They’re companies that buy the chips to build into complete
systems or circuit boards that they then sell to data centers, cloud providers
and end-users. Some of these direct customers are original design manufacturers
or original equipment manufacturers like Foxconn or Quanta. Others are
distributors or system integrators like Dell.
Indirect customers, meanwhile, include
cloud service providers, internet companies and enterprises, which typically
buy systems from Nvidia’s direct customers. Nvidia says it can only estimate
revenue to indirect customers based on purchase orders and internal sales data.
Deciphering if any of those cloud
providers are Nvidia’s mystery customers is difficult, in part because the
chipmaker has wiggle room in the definitions of its direct and indirect
customers.
Nvidia, for example, wrote in the filing
that some direct customers buy chips to build systems for their own use.
Additionally, Nvidia noted that two of its
indirect customers each accounted for over 10% of its total revenue, primarily
buying systems through Customers A and B.
Contributing further to the mystery of it
all, Nvidia said that an “AI research and development company” contributed a
“meaningful” amount of revenue through both direct and indirect customers.
More
Nvidia's
top two mystery customers made up 39% of its Q2 revenue
Japan’s top trade negotiator cancels trip to U.S.
over trade deal issues
Published Thu, Aug 28 2025 12:59 AM EDT
Japan’s top trade negotiator Ryosei
Akazawa canceled a trip to the United States on Thursday over issues related to
the U.S.-Japan trade deal.
In a statement, Japan’s Chief Cabinet
Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said that his trip would have involved the
discussion of U.S. tariff measures.
“However, during the coordination with the
US, because it became apparent that certain points required further technical
discussion, the trip was cancelled, and it was decided that discussions will
continue at the administrative level,” Hayashi told reporters.
Japanese media outlet Kyodo News said it has not
been decided whether he will reschedule the trip, while Reuters
said Akazawa could head to Washington as early next week after the
outstanding issues are resolved, citing an anonymous government source.
Hayashi said Tokyo will urge the U.S. to
amend its presidential order on reciprocal tariffs as soon as possible, and ask
Washington to issue a presidential order to lower tariffs on automobiles and
auto parts.
The White House has an executive
order setting
the baseline tariff rate for Japan at 15%, but there has not been a written
confirmation cutting the tariff rate for automobiles to 15% from 25%.
Akazawa reportedly
said in July that
the U.S. had promised to amend the executive order on reciprocal tariffs on
Japan to include a “no-stacking” arrangement, in which tariffs will not stack
on each other beyond 15%. That would be similar to the arrangement
made with the European Union.
“We have confirmed with the United States
that a sincere and prompt implementation of the Japan-US agreement is vital,”
he said on Thursday.
Separately, Bank of Japan board member
Junko Nakagawa said
on Thursday that
although tariff negotiations between the two sides have resulted in an
agreement, many uncertainties remain.
He warned that exports and industrial
production are projected to be negatively affected in Japan “for the time
being,” saying that there will be a “reactionary decline” in light of
front-loading from U.S. tariffs.
Corporate profits are also expected to decline, mainly in the manufacturing
sector, Nakagawa said, “reflecting the effects of the deterioration in export
profitability due to the increase in U.S. tariffs and of the slowdown in
overseas economies.”
---- Reuters
had earlier reported that
also on the agenda for Akazawa’s trip was a written confirmation of the details
of Japan’s $550 billion investment package for the U.S. in exchange for reduced
tariffs on imports.
That comes after U.S. Commerce Secretary
Howard Lutnick said in a Fox News interview on Monday stateside that the U.S. will make an
announcement regarding
the package.
The $550 billion package was announced as
part of Tokyo’s deal with
the U.S. in
July, which saw so-called “reciprocal” tariffs on Japanese exports lowered to
15% from 25%. Tariffs on Japan’s key automobile sector were also cut to 15%.
However, sticking points emerged over the
$550 billion investment package, with Trump touting the package
as “our money to
invest, as we like.”
“Some people are saying Japan is simply
handing over $550 billion,” Akazawa said after the
trade deal was announced. “But such claims are completely off the mark,”
according a to Reuters report on July 25.
More
Japan's top trade
negotiator reportedly cancels U.S. trip
In other news.
Did Cracker Barrel change their logo back? Company
heeds Trump's advice, keeps old logo
August 27, 2025
Just days after launching a new logo,
Cracker Barrel is restoring its previous one amid backlash.
Here's what we know about the controversy
surrounding the Tennessee-based restaurant and old country store chain.
Why is Cracker Barrel changing its logo
back?
On Aug. 19, Cracker Barrel announced "a new
fall menu creative campaign" called "All the More"
that involved new and returning menu items as well as "an enhanced
brand look and feel."
The new logo removed the graphics of
"the Old Timer," a farmer in overalls also known as "Uncle
Herschel," and the cracker barrel itself. Both have been on Cracker
Barrel's logo since 1977.
However, not everyone was a fan of the
change. Cracker Barrel's proposed new logo drew criticism from many, including
President Donald Trump.
"Cracker Barrel should go back to the
old logo, admit a mistake based on customer response (the ultimate Poll), and
manage the company better than ever before," Trump said in an Aug. 26 post
on Truth Social.
Others expressed a fondness for "the
Old Timer" character, while some politically conservative groups called
the move a "woke rebrand."
"Go woke, go broke," the
official White House social media account posted alongside an imitation of the
2015 Cracker Barrel logo featuring Trump and the phrases "America
First" and "America is back.
It wasn't just politicians bashing the new
logo, either - disapproval from Wall Street traders was evident when Cracker
Barrel lost almost $100 million in market value on Aug. 21. The figure began to
rebound on Aug. 22.
A week after promoting the proposed new
logo, Cracker Barrel said it would keep the 2015 logo featuring "the Old
Timer" and barrel graphic. The company's stock had already seen
a spike in value Wednesday
morning.
Taylor Budowich, White House deputy chief
of staff, confirmed a Tuesday
evening call with the company regarding the decision to keep the 2015 logo.
"[Cracker Barrel] thanked President
Trump for weighing in on the issue of their iconic 'original' logo,"
Budowich wrote in an X post. "They wanted the President to know that they
heard him, along with customer response (the ultimate poll), and would be
restoring the 'Old Timer.'"
Did Cracker Barrel change their logo back? Company heeds Trump's advice, keeps old logo
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Shrinkflation.
Due to shrinkflation my bottles of gin and tonic no longer seem to last as long
as they used to.
Shrinkflation
Is Real: 20 Grocery Items That Have Shrunk Most In Size
August
27, 2025
Have
you noticed your bag of chips being less full or your bottles and cans looking
slimmer? You're not imagining it. Companies opt for quietly shrinking products
to account for inflation as opposed to increasing the price to avoid customer
backlash, with some products seeing an up to 25 percent reduction in size. Here
are the 20 products that have been the biggest victims of shrinkflation.
Household
paper products like toilet paper have seen the highest rate of change. Some
brands have reduced their roll size by 100 sheets, but the price has stayed
roughly the same.
Cereal
is another item that has been heavily affected by shrinkflation. Some
family-sized boxes have gone from 24 ounces to 21, but the price has increased
by over a dollar.
Candy
and chocolate have seen a high rate of change, for good and bad, given the
sugar content. Cadbury, for example, reduced their chocolate bar size by 10
percent, the price staying the same.
Does
your bag of Lay's seem more airy lately? It's not just you. Family-sized bags
have decreased by around two ounces, but the price has risen by over a dollar.
If
you've felt your afternoon granola bar snack no longer satisfying you, it's not
your appetite. Granola bars have gotten smaller, with some brands not even
bothering to change the package size, so it's even more noticeable.
Have
you noticed your dish soap or laundry detergent disappearing before your eyes
way faster? Some brands have decreased in size by 10 percent, but the price has
stayed consistent.
Cooking
a bag of pasta isn't what it used to be. Packages have reduced in weight by 10
to 13 percent, so now the bag that used to contain exactly one pound is about
three ounces short of a pound.
Loaves
of bread have decreased in size by roughly 10 percent. Slices have become
noticeably smaller, making it harder to hold all your sandwich ingredients.
More
Shrinkflation Is
Real: 20 Grocery Items That Have Shrunk Most In Size
How
Would An AI Recession Impact AI Commercialization?
Aug
26, 2025, 02:19pm EDT
I
am at the 2025 IEEE Hot Chips Symposium at Stanford University and there are a
lot of presentations and exhibits on semiconductor devices, many focused on
artificial intelligence. I will write separately about these but I wanted to
provide some thoughts related to recent economic developments and comments
about AI that have been talking about a possible bubble in the AI market.
There
was an August
6 posting to Yahoo Finance, derived from a Fortune article by Nick Lichtenberg.
It points out that in the summer of 2025 consumer spending is slowing. This is
likely due to increased unemployment and lower job growth, at least partially
due to lower anticipated employee needs with the implementation of AI in
industry.
He
pointed out that Giant tech companies have spent so much on data centers in
2025 that their spending is now contributing more to U.S. economic growth than
consumer spending. My colleague, Jim Handy of Objective
Analysis presented
this slide during the 2025 FMS in early August showing that the quarterly ratio
of hyperscale data center spending (mostly on infrastructure to support huge AI
workflows) to revenue has increased over 10% since 2023 and if the trend continued
would soon be double the 2023 ratio.
This
trend reflects the significant spending on Ai infrastructure but also that so
far this spending has exceeded AI related revenues. Is this sustainable? A few
days ago people started to write about an
MIT study,
which indicates that for many companies, getting a real financial return from
AI has been elusive. The market value of AI related companies took a major hit
after the release of this report.
The
report is based on a multi-method research design that includes a systematic
review of over 300 publicly disclosed AI initiatives, structured interviews
with representatives from 52 organizations, and survey responses from 153
senior leaders collected across four major industry conferences. The report
says that Just 5% of integrated AI pilots are extracting millions in value,
while the vast majority remain stuck with no measurable P&L impact. This
divide does not seem to be driven by model quality or regulation, but seems to
be determined by approach.
The
report says that popular AI tools like ChatGPT and CoPilot primarily enhance
individual productivity, not P&L performance. Most enterprise-wide pilot
programs fail due to brittle workflows, lack of contextual learning, and
misalignment with day-to-day operations. It also indicates that programs which
include external partners familiar with the use of AI see twice the success
rate than internal only builds. The report says that the core barrier to
scaling these AI systems is not infrastructure, regulation, or talent. It is
learning.
---- As several
industry pundits have been pointing out, the current AI frenzy has many of the
hall marks of prior industry bubbles, such as the Internet Bubble in the early
2000’s and the railroad bubble in the 19th century. Such a
bubble will lead to a major correction and likely a reduction in current
investments. But that will not mean that there is no future for AI or that AI
work will cease.
However,
an AI recession will likely lead to far more focused use of AI and the big
models currently being developed to be used in ways that will enhance value for
businesses and increase the effectiveness of employees. I think that the best
way to think about the current wave of AI is that it is best as an Augmented
Intelligence, in particular for increasing the intelligence and agency of
individual humans and including human judgement, rather than the wholesale
replacement of humans.
How Would An AI
Recession Impact AI Commercialization?
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
FDA approves updated COVID-19 shots with limits for some kids and adults
August 27, 2025
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S.
regulators approved updated COVID-19 shots Wednesday but limited their use for many
Americans — and removed one of the two vaccines available for young children.
The new shots from
Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax are approved for all seniors. But the Food and Drug Administration narrowed their use for younger adults
and children to those with at least one high-risk health condition, such as
asthma or obesity. That presents new barriers to access for millions of Americans who would have to
prove their risk — and millions more who may want to get vaccinated and
suddenly no longer qualify.
Additionally, Pfizer’s
vaccine will no longer be available for any child under 5, because the FDA said
it was revoking the shot’s emergency authorization for that age group.
Parents will still be
able to seek out shots from rival drugmaker Moderna, the other maker of mRNA
vaccines, which has full FDA approval for children as young as 6 months. But
the company’s Spikevax vaccine is only approved for children with at least one serious
health problem.
The revamped vaccines target a newer version of the continuously
evolving virus and are set to begin shipping soon. But it could be days or
weeks before many Americans know if they’ll be able to get one, with access
dependent on decisions by federal health advisers, health insurers, pharmacies
and state authorities.
The new restrictions —
previewed by FDA officials in May — are a break from the previous U.S. policy,
which recommended an annual COVID-19 shot for all Americans 6 months and up.
The approach
reflects heightened skepticism about the ongoing risks of COVID-19 and the
need for yearly booster shots from Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and FDA Commissioner Marty Makary, both outspoken critics of wide-scale vaccinations.
“The American people
demanded science, safety, and common sense. This framework delivers all three,”
Kennedy wrote on social media.
Novavax's shot is only
open to people 12 or older, not younger children, and carries the same
risk-based restrictions that are now in place for Moderna and Pfizer. It's the
nation's only traditional, protein-based COVID-19 vaccine.
More
FDA approves updated COVID-19 shots with limits for some kids and adults
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
NatPower
unveils £1bn plan for 'UK's largest' battery storage project
28 August 2025
One of the UK's most advanced battery
storage projects is being proposed for Teesside, in order to help stabilise the
grid and electrify ships at the nearby port
NatPower UK has today unveiled plans for
a one of the UK's largest long-duration battery storage systems at a site on
Teesside, as part of a £1bn project designed to combine utility-scale grid
storage capacity with dedicated infrastructure to help charge up electric ships
at the nearby port.
The clean energy developer said it had
secured an agreement with Sembcorp Utilities Ltd to build the 1GW battery
energy storage system (BESS) at a 32-acre site at the Wilton International
industrial park in Redcar, which it said would be fully funded by £1bn in
private investment.
NatPower said the Teesside GigaPark
would be one of the UK's highest-capacity and longest-duration energy storage
projects (LDES), capable of providing 4GWh of storage capacity initially, with
potential to double output to 8GWh in the future.
The company said the trail-blazing
project would provide battery storage duration well in excess of the one to two
hours worth of storage that has been delivered by most UK BESS projects to
date.
By providing clean, flexible power to
the grid at such a scale, the project is expected to help support the growing
influx of renewables onto the grid and curb the costs of switching off wind and
solar farms to avoid overloading the electricity system.
At the same time, associated port
infrastructure is being designed from the outset to power electric ships at
berth - a process known as 'cold ironing' - in addition to offering recharging
capability for electric propulsion systems for future vessel types, NatPower UK
said.
The project, which already holds a 1GW
connection agreement with the National Energy System Operator (NESO) for a
400kV connection to a nearby substation, is earmarked to begin operations by
2028.
NatPower UK estimated the project would
create around 200 jobs during the construction phase, in addition to providing
long-term employment for locals and delivering affordable, reliable renewable
power for nearby industrial sites and the port. The firm has also committed to
establishing a community benefit fund totalling £2m a year.
"Teesside, our most advanced
GigaPark, located at Wilton International, will be the blueprint for how we
combine high-capacity renewable energy storage with the electrification of
ports and industry," said Stefano Sommadossi, CEO at NatPower UK and
NatPower Marine. "Within five years, we can transform one of the UK's most
important industrial hubs into a net zero economic powerhouse and then
replicate this model in ports across the globe."
More
NatPower unveils £1bn plan for 'UK's largest' battery storage project |
BusinessGreen News
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another weekend and which fast food chain’s logo and
advertising will get the benefit of President Trump’s input, just like Cracker Barrel,
this weekend? Have a great weekend everyone.
Debt is
a prolific mother of folly and of crime.
Benjamin
Disraeli
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