Saturday, 30 August 2025

Special Update 30/08/2025 Trump’s Global Trade Turmoil.

Baltic Dry Index. 2025 +08            Brent Crude 67.48

Spot Gold 3448                U S 2 Year Yield 3.59 -0.03 

US Federal Debt. 37.295 trillion

US GDP 30.233 trillion

Former Treasury secretary Janet Yellen pulled no punches in her op-ed in the FT, stating that Trump’s action against Cook “threatens to end the independence of the Federal Reserve — and with it, the credibility of the US’s monetary policy both at home and abroad”.

Little need for my input this weekend, except to say tariffs uncertainty, plus the end of the US de minimis customs exemption, makes for a very uncertain global economy September – December.

Trump Tariffs Ruled Illegal by Federal Appeals Court

August 29, 2025 at 10:59 PM GMT+1

In a dramatic ruling on the Friday afternoon before Labor Day weekend, most of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs were declared illegal by a US appeals court that found he exceeded his authority in imposing them.

A panel of judges in Washington upheld an earlier ruling by the Court of International Trade that Trump wrongfully invoked an emergency law to issue the levies. But the appellate judges sent the case back to the lower court to determine if it applied to everyone affected by tariffs or just the parties involved in the case.

In the meantime, the levies were allowed to remain in place as the litigation proceeds. The case will almost certainly end up before the US Supreme Court.

What You Need to Know Today

US consumers are increasingly fearful of the looming consequences of Trump’s tariff campaign as well as rising inflation and the overall outlook for the economy. A University of Michigan survey released Friday indicated consumers expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.8% over the next year, up from 4.5% last month. They saw costs rising at an annual rate of 3.5% over the next five to 10 years.

The figures underscore continuing consumer anxiety about employment prospects and business conditions. About 63% of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, an increase from the prior month and well above the same month in 2024.

The Trump administration meanwhile issued more upbeat data for a second day in a row. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, a division of the US Department of Commerce, consumer spending remained resilient in July, rising by the most in four months.

Economists anticipate higher goods prices to put pressure on inflation in coming months. For now, the US continues to spend, according to the government, but it’s unclear how long that momentum will last amid rising prices and a weakening job market.

----Questions about whether Trump had cause to try to push out Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook or whether he is seeking to fire the first Black woman ever appointed to the post on a pretext dominated a court hearing Friday. US District Judge Jia Cobb peppered lawyers for Cook and Trump for about two hours before ending the proceeding without ruling on Cook’s request for a temporary order blocking Trump’s effort to oust her. The judge didn’t indicate which way she is leaning in what’s likely to be a landmark case that could determine the future of Fed independence.

The president has repeatedly attacked the central bank for not lowering interest rates and has threatened to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. His aides have accused Cook, who hasn’t been charged with a crime, of mortgage fraud. (Trump himself has been convicted of fraud in New York state court.) Her lawyer, Abbe Lowell, said such allegations have become a “weapon of choice” for Trump as he seeks to remove officials whom he views as obstacles to his agenda. Trump’s motive, he argued, signaled he didn’t have the necessary cause to fire Cook.

An attorney for Trump argued Cook’s failure to explain alleged mortgage discrepancies suggests she did something wrong and supports Trump’s right to remove her for cause. As part of her lawsuit, Cook suggested that an unintentional “clerical error” may have been behind the mortgage filling.

Trump Tariffs Ruled Illegal by Federal Appeals Court: Evening Briefing - Bloomberg

Stocks close lower, but S&P 500 notches its 4th winning month in a row

Updated Fri, Aug 29 2025 4:19 PM EDT

Stocks fell on Friday as investors took some money off the table into a long weekend following a new S&P 500 record and solid Nvidia earnings this week. New inflation data showed rising prices was still a risk heading into the new month.

The S&P 500 ended the day 0.64% lower at 6,460.26, but still scored its fourth winning month in a row. The Nasdaq Composite shed 1.15% to finish at 21,455.55, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 92.02 points, or 0.20%, to settle at 45,544.88.

Core PCE, a key inflation measure watched by the Federal Reserve which excludes the costs of food and energy, increased 2.9% in July, in-line with expectations but an acceleration from the prior month and the highest level since February.

“The Fed opened the door to rate cuts, but the size of that opening is going to depend on whether labor-market weakness continues to look like a bigger risk than rising inflation,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a statement. “Today’s in-line PCE Price Index will keep the focus on the jobs market. For now, the odds still favor a September cut.”

Given that equities were already under pressure heading into the PCE print, Baird’s Ross Mayfield believes the day’s pullback has more to do with the market’s recent performance. Stocks are coming off a winning session, with the S&P 500 closing above the 6,500 mark for the first time Thursday.

“The PCE number was fine, but there’s a bit of an earnings overhang and maybe just a little profit-taking after hitting an all-time high,” the firm’s investment strategist said in an interview with CNBC.

Even with Friday’s losses, the indexes closed out August with solid gains. The 30-stock Dow logged a more than 3% advance in August, while the S&P 500 tallied a nearly 2% advance. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has seen an August gain of 1.6%.

The market hit new highs into a long weekend and month that has historically been poor for major benchmarks. September was the biggest losing month for the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq since 1950, according to The Stock Trader’s Almanac, and the S&P 500 in particular has seen especially weak September performances over the last 10 years, per Bespoke. The broad market index averages a 0.7% decline for the month.

Stock market news for Aug. 29, 2025

Retail panic: What the end of the ‘de minimis’ exemption means for brands across the globe

Published Fri, Aug 29 2025 8:31 AM EDT Updated Fri, Aug 29 2025 11:02 AM EDT

The de minimis exemption, an obscure trade law provision that has simultaneously fueled and eroded businesses across the globe, officially came to an end on Friday following an executive order by President Donald Trump

For nearly a decade, shipments valued under $800 were allowed to enter the country virtually duty-free and with less oversight. Now, those shipments from the likes of TapestryLululemon and just about any other retailer with an online presence will be tariffed and processed in the same way that larger packages are handled. 

In May, Trump ended the exemption for goods coming from China and Hong Kong, and on July 30 he expanded the rollback to all countries, calling it a “catastrophic loophole” that’s been used to evade tariffs and get “unsafe or below-market” products into the U.S. 

The de minimis exemption had previously been slated to end in July 2027 as part of sweeping legislation passed by Congress, but Trump’s executive order eliminated the provision much sooner, giving businesses, customs officials and postal services less time to prepare.

“The ending of that under-$800-per-person-per-day rule, from a global perspective, is about to probably cause a bit of pandemonium,” said Lynlee Brown, a partner in the global trade division at accounting firm EY. “There’s a financial implication, there’s an operational implication, and then there’s pure compliance, right? Like, these have all been informal entries. No one’s really looked at them.”

Already, the sudden change has snarled supply chains from France to Singapore and led post offices across the world to temporarily suspend shipments to the U.S. so they can ensure their systems are updated and able to comply with the new regulations. 

It’s forced businesses both large and small to rethink not just their supply chains, but their overall business models, because of the impact the change could have on their bottom lines – setting off a panic in boardrooms across the country, logistics experts said. 

“Obviously it’s a big change for operating models for companies, not just the Sheins and the Temus, but for companies that have historically had e-com and brick-and-mortar stores,” Brown said.

The change also means consumers, already are under pressure from persistent inflation and high interest rates, could now see even higher prices on a wide range of goods, from Colombian bathing suits to specialty ramen subscription boxes shipped straight from Japan. 

The end of de minimis could cost U.S. consumers at least $10.9 billion, or $136 per family, according to a 2025 paper by Pablo Fajgelbaum and Amit Khandelwal for the National Bureau of Economic Research. The research found low-income and minority consumers would feel the biggest impact as they rely more on the cheaper, imported purchases.

Tailoring supply chains

Popularized by Chinese e-tailers Shein and Temu, use of the de minimis exemption has exploded in the last decade, ballooning from 134 million shipments in 2015 to more than 1.36 billion in 2024. Before the recent change to limit its use, U.S. Customs and Border Protection said it was processing more than 4 million de minimis shipments into the country each day. 

2023 House report found more than 60% of de minimis shipments in 2021 came from China, but because the packages require less information than larger containers, very little information is known about their origins and the types of goods they contain. That opacity is one of the key reasons why both former President Joe Biden and Trump sought to curtail or end the exemption. 

More

Retail panic: 'De minimis' exemption ends globally

In other news, the UK’s extreme leftwing socialist government is plotting new  ways of how to hurt the UK’s poorest housing renters even more than they already have. Socialism.

“If socialists understood economics, they wouldn't be socialists.”

Friedrich Hayek

Reeves warned that ‘punitive’ tax hikes on landlords will choke rental sector

Thursday 28 August 2025 11:33 am

Property experts have warned that higher taxes on landlords’ rental incomes will have ‘severe’ unintended consequences for the rental sector and the broader housing market.

The Chancellor is reportedly examining proposals for applying national insurance (NI) to rental income in the hope of raising £2bn.

Officials are drawing up options for tax rises in an attempt to avoid breaking the “red lines” set by Reeves before the general election, where she promised to not raise taxes for ‘working people’, according to The Times.

Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, said that while the move “won’t lose the government many votes”, it will “invariably end up hurting tenants”.

“With landlords already selling up ahead of the Renters’ Rights Bill and tougher green regulations, another disincentive would reduce supply further and put upwards pressure on rents.”

“Those that stay may pass on the extra costs in other ways. Governments need to fully appreciate that when you tax an activity, you get less of it,” he said.

Private, smaller landlords – i.e. those who do not funnel their activity through a corporate structure – are under pressure from all sides: inflation, high interest rates and new regulations all impact small landlords more than larger ones.

‘Political point-scoring rather than sound housing policy’

Multiple experts said that as smaller landlords get ever-more squeezed, they will pull up stakes or restructure.

“We’re already seeing supply pressures in many areas, pushing costs onto tenants. A policy with such serious unintended consequences deserves more scrutiny,” Marc von Grundherr, director at Benham & Reeves, said.

According to Savills, up to one million additional homes will be required to accommodate growing rental demand by 2031, particularly from young families, across England and Wales.

“Further punitive tax hikes on the rental sector will lead only to rents going up, hitting the very households the government wants to protect,” Ben Beadle, chief executive of the National Residential Landlords Association (NRLA), said.

Sam Humphreys, Head of M&A at Dwelly, said: “The reality is that many landlords already operate on fine margins, and measures like this could be the tipping point that drives them out of the sector altogether.

“Once stock is lost, it is incredibly difficult to rebuild, and the people who pay the price are tenants facing rising rents and fewer housing choices.

“If the government wants to improve affordability, it should be working to increase supply – not choking it further with punitive taxation,” Humphreys added.

Rents will ‘invariably’ rise

Earlier this year, a Handelsbanken survey found that around a third of small landlords were already planning to leave the sector, with 88 per cent of private landlords reporting no confidence in the current private rental sector.

If landlords do leave the sector because of the introduction of NI, the imbalance between supply and demand will “invariably” push rents higher, Shaun Moore, tax and financial planning expert at Quilter, said.

“Similarly, the addition of NI would almost certainly be passed on to renters through higher rents, compounding the problem,” he said.

Moore added that the practice of holding properties within a limited company structure will “skyrocket” as landlords look for ways to mitigate the impact of these changes.

“Ironically, this could mean the government’s expected revenue boost is far smaller than anticipated, while the unintended consequences for renters and the broader housing market could be severe.”

Reeves warned that 'punitive' tax hikes on landlords will choke rental sector

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.        

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation/recession now needs an entire section of its own.

US PCE price index data for July throws a surprise for the markets?

The United States Bureau of Economic Analysis has published the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index data for July.

Written by Sunil Dhawan  August 29, 2025 18:07 IST

The United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has published the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for July.

The PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, is closely monitored by market participants as it could potentially impact policy outlook.

PCE Price Index for July

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for July increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for July increased 2.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.9 percent from one year ago.

In July 2025, the US PCE price index climbed 0.2% month over month, down from 0.3% in June, as expected. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3%, mirroring the previous month and estimates. Annually, headline PCE inflation remained stable at 2.6%, while core PCE increased to 2.9% from 2.8%, the highest level in five months, as forecast.

Rate Cut Expectations

US CPI Data in July was steady at 2.7% while the core CPI data accelerated to 3.1% and rose the most in 6 months. US inflation may not yet be under full control, but with the federal funds rate currently at 4.25%-4.5%, markets anticipate two 25-basis-point rate cuts, one each in September and December, followed by quarterly decreases through 2026.

Powell may consider a rate cut due to concerning job data, including a 4.2% unemployment rate and over 250,000 job losses in May and June.

The FOMC meeting on September 16-17 will be influenced by hard economic data, including the Employment Situation for August on September 5 and the US CPI data on September 11.

US stock market indices are near all-time highs as investors continue to process the most recent data from AI chip major Nvidia and numerous other earnings reports. Many analysts have once again started asking if the US stock market is in a bubble.

US PCE price index data for July throws a surprise for the markets? - Investing Abroad News | The Financial Express

German inflation rises to hotter-than-expected 2.1% in August

Published Fri, Aug 29 2025 8:05 AM EDT

German inflation rose by a higher-than-expected 2.1% in August, preliminary data from statistics office Destatis showed Friday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the headline figure, which is harmonized for comparability across the euro zone, to come in at 2%. Inflation had risen by a cooler-than-expected 1.8% in July.

Markets and economists are closely watching inflation figures around the world to assess the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Various sectoral levies, as well as so-called reciprocal duties, have been in effect in recent months.

The U.S. and EU struck a trade agreement in July, including a 15% tariff rate on many EU goods exported to the U.S. Fresh details released earlier this month suggested that this blanket rate will also be applied to some hotly contested sectors like pharmaceuticals — but crucial questions still remain unanswered, leaving businesses on edge.

The tariffs are widely expected to drive prices higher in the U.S., but their impact on costs elsewhere is less clear.

There have also been widespread concerns about tariffs and related economic uncertainty weighing on economic growth. Germany's economy, the largest in the EU, has long been hovering near the flatline. The country's gross domestic product expanded by 0.3% in the first quarter, before contracting by 0.3% in the following period according to the latest data from Destatis.

German inflation August 2025

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

The world's largest sand battery just went live in Finland

By Abhimanyu Ghoshal  August 27, 2025

Finland has inaugurated an industrial-scale sand battery this week in the southern town of Pornainen, where it'll take over heating duties from an old woodchip power plant for the municipality. It's set to reduce carbon emissions from the local heating network by as much as 70%, and is the largest one of its kind in the world.

Developed by Finnish Firm Polar Night Energy – which also built the world's first commercial sand battery a few years ago – this battery is about 42 ft (13 m) tall and 50 ft (15 m) wide. It serves as a storage medium for up to 100 MWh, with a round trip efficiency of 90%. That makes it about 10 times larger than the first-ever sand battery, and capable of storing enough heat for the whole town to use for a week.

This Thermal Energy Storage (TES) reservoir is a critical tool for places like Finland, which intermittently generate vast quantities of wind and solar electricity, but also face variations in energy demand and supply. The sand battery charges up when electricity is cheaply available and can hold a charge for months at a time, helping balance the energy grid during periods of high demand. You can see the battery being put together in Pornainen, in the video below.

---- Here's how it works: Excess electricity from renewable sources is used to heat the sand contained in a large insulated silo through a closed-loop air pipe system, to temperatures of up to 1,112 ºF (600 ºC). The sand gets hot and stays hot for a long time, acting as a battery.

Later, cool air is blown through the battery's pipes, absorbing heat from the sand as it moves through the system. This heated air – which can reach temperatures of 752 ºF (400 ºC) – can then convert water into steam for industrial processes, or it can heat water for district heating using a device called a heat exchanger.

So in case you were wondering: no, this battery doesn't store and provide electricity directly. Polar Night says it's working on a system to convert this TES' stored heat into electricity; it'll likely involve the use of steam turbines.

This battery has actually been in operation since June, and the company says it's already exceeded its efficiency targets in the early days of optimizing its functions. Many of Pornainen's buildings, including its town hall, are currently heated by the new TES.

In the coming years, it'll play a major role in helping the town achieve carbon neutrality – and it might inspire more municipalities in regions with similar climate and energy sources to adopt these giant batteries.

Finland unveils world's largest sand battery for heating

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Exponent Calculator

Enter values into any two of the input fields to solve for the third.

Exponent Calculator

This weekend’s music diversion. More from the oboe king.  More next week too. Approx. 10 minutes. 

Tomaso Albinoni - Concerto for Two Oboes Op. 9, No. 6

Tomaso Albinoni - Concerto for Two Oboes Op. 9, No. 6

Next, more of Trump’s tariffs mischief. Approx. 9 minutes.

Modi's Japan Deal SHOCKER Defies Trump Tariffs on India

Modi's Japan Deal SHOCKER Defies Trump Tariffs on India

Finally, more EV reality.  Approx. 10 minutes.

Shipping Companies Are Refusing Electric Vehicles

Shipping Companies Are Refusing Electric Vehicles - YouTube

Like almost everyone who uses e-mail, I receive a ton of spam every day. Much of it offers to help me get out of debt or get rich quick. It would be funny if it weren't so irritating. 

Bill Gates


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