Baltic Dry Index. 2018 +15 Brent Crude 69.44
Spot Gold 3361 US 2 Year Yield 3.69 -0.25
US Federal Debt. 37.187 trillion
US GDP 30.178 trillion.
The least-bad scenario is a hard landing, global recession worse than the 1930s. The worst-case borrows from the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse: war, famine, pestilence and death.
Kenneth S. Deffeyes
In the stock casinos this week, do you bet red or black, this week?
With President Trump about to “fix” the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve, how long does the dollar reserve standard have left?
Is August 2025, August 1929, 2.0?
Asia-Pacific stocks trade mixed as investors weigh
tariffs, OPEC+ output hike
Updated Mon, Aug 4 2025 12:19 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Monday
as investors assessed the U.S.′ latest round of tariffs and jobs report, which
pushed Wall Street lower last Friday and spurred bets on a rate cut by the U.S.
Federal Reserve next month.
Investors will also be watching oil prices
after OPEC+ concluded a slew of major
output hikes.
Here are today’s highlights:
- Japanese
stocks fell over 2%
in early trade, while the yen weakened against the greenback
- Spot
gold moved
down amid concerns of an impending rate cut by the U.S. Federal
Reserve
- OPEC+
price hike pushed oil
prices down marginally
Indian stocks rise in early trade
Indian stocks
started the day higher Monday.
The benchmark Nifty 50 was up
0.35%, while the BSE Sensex index moved up 0.23% as of 9:36 a.m. Indian
Standard time (12.06 a.m. ET).
Oil drops marginally after OPEC+ price
hike
Oil prices declined Monday after
OPEC+ agreed
to another large output increase and investors assessed the
possibility of a global oversupply.
Brent Crude was trading at
$69.53 per barrel after moving down 0.2%, as of 11:15 a.m. Singapore time
(11:15 p.m. ET Sunday).
Meanwhile, the West Texas Intermediate crude ticked
down 0.1% to $67.27.
Asia
stock markets today: live updates
Stock futures rise amid uncertainty over economy
and tariffs: Live updates
Updated Mon, Aug 4 2025 12:08 AM EDT
Stock futures climbed early Monday
even as investors remained on edge over the Trump administration’s new
round of tariffs, heightening worries about rising inflation and an economic
slowdown.
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures moved up
0.41% and 0.44% respectively. Futures
tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 153 points, or 0.35%.
Stocks are coming off a volatile trading
week that saw each of the three major U.S. indexes end with significant losses,
halting weeks of mostly positive moves for the broader market.
The S&P 500 ended the week
down 2.4%, notching its worst weekly performance since May 23, while the
30-stock Dow Jones Industrial
Average dropped 2.9% to post its worst week since April 4. The Nasdaq Composite ended the
week down 2.2%.
Friday’s sell-off was driven by a
worse-than-expected July jobs report and jitters about President Donald Trump’s
new modified tariff rates. Trump signed an executive order late last week
that updated
his “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of U.S. trading partners, ranging from
Syria to Taiwan, with updated duties ranging from 10% to 41%.
Investors are now digesting what a
weakened U.S. labor market could mean for the weeks ahead. Traders are
expecting reduced
chances for a September interest rate cut after policymakers last week
held the benchmark overnight borrowing rate in place for the fifth-straight
meeting.
The market is also bracing for a
historically weak month. August is the worst month for the Dow Jones Industrial
Average in data going back to 1988, and the second worst for the S&P 500
and Nasdaq Composite, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
Stock
market today live updates
Oil slips after OPEC+ agrees to another big output
hike in September
Published Sun, Aug 3 2025 1:20 PM EDT
Oil prices slipped in early Asian trade on
Monday after OPEC+ agreed to another large production hike in September.
Brent crude futures fell 43
cents, or 0.62%, to $69.24 a barrel by 2218 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude
was at $66.94 a barrel, down 39 cents, or 0.58%, after both contracts closed
about $2 a barrel lower on Friday.
OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise oil
production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, the latest in a series of
accelerated output hikes to regain market share, as concerns mount over
potential supply disruptions linked to Russia.
The move marks a full and early reversal
of OPEC+’s largest tranche of output cuts plus a separate increase in output
for the United Arab Emirates amounting to about 2.5 million bpd, or about 2.4%
of world demand.
Eight OPEC+ members held a brief virtual
meeting, amid increasing U.S. pressure on India to halt Russian oil purchases —
part of Washington’s efforts to bring Moscow to the negotiating table for a
peace deal with Ukraine. President Donald Trump said he wants this by August 8.
In a statement following the meeting,
OPEC+ cited a healthy economy and low stocks as reasons behind its decision.
“Given fairly strong oil prices at around
$70, it does give OPEC+ some confidence about market fundamentals,” said Amrita
Sen, co-founder of Energy Aspects, adding that the market structure was also
indicating tight stocks.
The eight countries are scheduled to meet
again on Sept. 7, when they may consider reinstating another layer of output
cuts totaling around 1.65 million bpd, two OPEC+ sources said following
Sunday’s meeting. Those cuts are currently in place until the end of next year.
OPEC+ in full includes 10 non-OPEC
oil-producing countries, most notably Russia and Kazakhstan.
The group, which pumps about half of the
world’s oil, had been curtailing production for several years to support oil
prices. It reversed course this year in a bid to regain market share, spurred
in part by calls from Trump for OPEC to ramp up production.
The eight began raising output in April
with a modest hike of 138,000 bpd, followed by larger-than-planned hikes of
411,000 bpd in May, June and July, 548,000 bpd in August, and now 547,000 bpd
for September.
“So far the market has been able to absorb
very well those additional barrels also due to stockpiling activity in China,”
said Giovanni Staunovo of UBS. “All eyes will now shift on the Trump decision
on Russia this Friday.”
As well as the voluntary cut of about 1.65
million bpd from the eight members, OPEC+ still has a 2-million-bpd cut across
all members, which also expires at the end of 2026.
“OPEC+ has passed the first test,” said
Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy and a former OPEC official, as it has fully
reversed its largest cut without crashing prices.
“But the next task will be even harder:
deciding if and when to unwind the remaining 1.66 million barrels, all while
navigating geopolitical tension and preserving cohesion.”
OPEC+
makes another large oil output hike in market share push
In other news.
It's the Worst Time To Be an American Farmer in
Decades
Published Aug 03, 2025 at 5:00 AM EDT
America's farmers are locked in a
generational crisis, fending off an array of threats that could jeopardize food
supplies and spell financial disaster for those often hailed as the
"backbone of the nation."
"They love their way of life, and
they love that dirt," President Donald Trump said
this week, in a somewhat off-piste response to a question on the importance of
farmers. "They don't know how to do anything else, but they don't want to
do anything else."
But the current storm of rising debt,
declining commodity prices and labor shortfalls has begun to echo the great
Farm Crisis of the 1980s and may be testing the love farmers hold for their
profession.
Farm sector debt is expected to reach a
record $561.8 billion in 2025, according to data from the U.S. Department of
Agriculture, up 3.7 percent from 2024. The Kansas City Federal Reserve has
attributed this primarily to increased lending for small- and mid-sized farms.
This growing financial pressure has also
pushed up bankruptcies. Researchers at the University of Arkansas recently
found that Chapter 12 filings—specifically for farmers and family
fishermen—reached 88 in the first quarter of the year, nearly doubling the
previous year's figure.
"Bankruptcies are on the rise and you
will see many more on the auction block in the coming months especially this
fall," said John Boyd, a crop and livestock farmer and founder of the
National Black Farmers Association.
More
It's
the Worst Time To Be an American Farmer in Decades - Newsweek
Over a Quarter of U.S. Corn Crop at Dough Stage
Published on August 1, 2025
According to the USDA’s Crop
Progress report for
the week ending July 27, 26% of the country’s corn crop is at the dough growth
stage, with all 18 top-producing states reporting for the stage.
Eight states are ahead of the national
five-year average 24%, and 10 are below it. Here’s a closer look at the
numbers.
Ahead of the Five-Year Average
North Carolina
North Carolina leads the country in the
percentage of corn at the dough growth stage, with 81% as of July 27. That’s an
increase of 10 percentage points from the week prior and 16 points ahead of the
state’s five-year average 65%.
Texas
Texas has 76% of its corn crop at the
dough stage. That’s only 2 percentage points ahead of the week prior, but 6
points ahead of the five-year average of 70%.
Tennessee
With 59% of its corn at the dough growth
stage, Tennessee ranks third among the states. The corn crop gained 16 points
from the previous week but is only 3 points ahead of the state’s five-year
average of 56%.
More
Over a Quarter of
U.S. Corn Crop at Dough Stage
Spring Wheat Harvest Reported in 3 States as
Condition Declines for Third Consecutive Week
Published on July 30, 2025
In its latest Crop
Progress report,
USDA reported spring wheat harvest in three of the top states for the week that
ended July 27. But as harvest picks up, the condition of the crop is declining.
For the top spring wheat-growing states,
the percentage of the crop rated good/excellent decreased for a third straight
week and reached its lowest point of July.
Here’s a closer look at how harvest is
going in the three states reporting, plus the condition of the crop in each.
Idaho
Idaho’s spring wheat harvest reached 4%
the week ending July 27, up from 1% the week prior. Progress is ahead of the
five-year average of 2%. Last year at this time, harvest had not yet begun in
the state.
All of Idaho’s spring wheat has headed,
USDA reported.
Exactly half of the spring wheat in Idaho
was rated good/excellent. USDA rated most of the rest fair, but 16% was rated
poor/very poor.
South Dakota
Spring wheat harvest in South Dakota
jumped seven points during the week that ended July 27 to reach 10%, USDA
reported. Progress is behind the five-year average by 6 percentage points. Last
year at this time, 7% of the crop was harvested.
USDA said 100% of South Dakota’s spring
wheat had headed.
Good/excellent wheat in South Dakota made
up 56% of the crop, USDA said. None of the crop was in very poor condition.
Washington
Finally, 11% of Washington’s spring wheat
had been harvested by July 27, the most of the three states. Progress jumped 10
percentage points since the week prior. Harvest in Washington is ahead of both
the five-year average, 8%, and progress a year ago, 4%.
Like the other two states reporting spring
wheat harvest, all of the crop in Washington had headed as of July 27.
Washington’s crop is some of the worst in
the nation: Nearly half was rated poor/very poor, and only 16% was rated
good/excellent.
Spring Wheat
Harvest Reported in 3 States as Condition Declines for Third Consecutive Week
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Shock
jobs report stirs recession fears: 5 takeaways
August
1, 2025
The
disappointing July
jobs report threw
a bucket of cold water on an economic outlook that appeared to be holding up
surprisingly well despite President Donald
Trump's high
import tariffs, immigration
crackdown and
widespread federal
layoffs.
Not
only did employers add a disappointing 73,000 jobs – well below the 105,000
expected – but payroll gains for May and June were revised downward by a
whopping 258,000. That left May’s additions at 19,000 and June’s at 14,000, the
weakest performance since the nation was climbing out of the COVID-19 recession
in December 2020.
By
late afternoon Aug. 1, Trump announced he ordered the firing
of Erika McEntarfer,
the U.S. commissioner of Labor Statistics. The president in a social media post
accused McEntarfer of manipulating figures for "political purposes,"
though he did not provide any evidence.
----Over
the past three months, the economy has averaged just 35,000 employment gains.
Here
are a few takeaways:
This
was no blip
The
poor showing likely wasn’t an outlier that will be followed by a resumption of
healthy job gains in the months ahead, economists said. Consumers have reined
in their spending somewhat, amid worries about Trump's tariffs pushing up
prices, and are pulling back on travel and recreational activities. As more of
the import charges hit store shelves, Americans will likely restrain their
outlays further, Pantheon Macroeconomics wrote in a note to clients.
That
should translate into weaker job gains, especially in sectors such as
manufacturing, retail, trucking and warehousing, the research firm said.
And
on July 31, Trump
escalated his global trade fight with a sweeping new round of import
levies.
Meanwhile,
executives’ confidence in the business outlook has been shaken in recent months
by the tariffs – which are squeezing profit margins – and that's expected to
spell a more pronounced decline in business investment, Pantheon said.
“Sadly,
employment appears set for a further summer slowdown as firms, facing renewed
cost volatility from escalating trade tensions, remain focused on managing
labor costs through reduced hiring, performance-based layoffs, restrained wage
growth, and lower entry-level wages,” Gregory Daco, chief economist of
EY-Parthenon, wrote to clients.
Also,
after the Supreme Court recently
lifted a stay
on mass federal layoffs, ”the decline in federal employment likely will
gather more momentum over the coming months,” Pantheon said.
The
Labor Department has tracked 84,000 federal job losses this year, but the
number of buyouts and job cuts announced was much larger.
Hiring
across the economy hit a 12-month low in June, Labor Department figures show.
Will
there be a recession in 2025?
The
dreaded word has slipped back into the conversation after fading the past
couple of months as Trump delayed many tariffs and reached deals with several
countries.
“To
me, today’s jobs report is what entering a recession looks like,” Josh Bivens,
chief economist of the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute, said in a
statement. “Could we pull up? Sure. But if we look back and end up dating an
official recession that starts 3-6 months from now, this is what it would look
like today – rapid softening/deterioration in the labor market.”
A
recession now appears “very, very likely” unless Trump lowers the tariffs by
Labor Day, said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics.
Could
a skidding economy and stock market lead Trump to reverse course?
A
darkening economic outlook and tumbling stock market could well prompt Trump to
try to soften the import fees, Zandi said. “He’s going to try to pull it back,”
he said.
But
if he doesn’t act before Labor Day, “It will be too late,” Zandi said, adding
the duties will start to ripple too dramatically into retail prices and
consumer and business sentiment for the effects to be undone.
More
Shock jobs report
stirs recession fears: 5 takeaways
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Graphene Market Investment Report 2025: Investment Insights on
Leading Firms, Global Markets, and Tech Progress from Production to Use
Thu, July 31, 2025 at 9:07 AM
GMT+1
With substantial funding rounds in
2024-2025 from companies like Elemental Advanced Materials and Black Swan
Graphene, the graphene sector is poised for significant investment returns. The
Graphene Investment Opportunity Report 2025 offers a detailed analysis for
investors, detailing global production forecasts, market demand, and pricing.
This comprehensive report provides strategic insights, technology assessments,
and company intelligence for investors looking to capitalize on this
multi-billion dollar market. With applications in energy, electronics,
composites, and more, graphene represents a high-growth opportunity driven by
accelerating adoption across numerous high-value sectors.
Dublin, July 31, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE)
-- The "Graphene Investment Opportunity Report
2025" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.
Graphene represents one of the most
promising material science investment opportunities of the 21st century,
combining revolutionary properties with rapidly expanding commercial
applications. This "wonder material," consisting of a single layer of
carbon atoms arranged in a hexagonal lattice, offers extraordinary electrical
conductivity, mechanical strength, and thermal properties that are driving
significant investor interest across multiple sectors.
The graphene market has matured
significantly from purely research-focused activities to commercial-scale
production and deployment. Leading companies have achieved significant
production capacities, while new entrants are scaling rapidly to meet growing
demand. This transition from laboratory to industrial scale represents a
critical inflection point, with energy storage and electronics industry
applications driving the majority of revenue growth.
Key applications experiencing rapid
commercialization include next-generation battery technologies where graphene
enhances energy density and charging speeds, advanced composites for
lightweight automotive and aerospace components, and high-performance coatings
providing superior thermal management and anti-corrosion properties. The
convergence of technological maturity and market readiness has created optimal
conditions for substantial investment returns.
The graphene sector has witnessed
significant funding activity throughout 2024 and early 2025, demonstrating
strong investor confidence in commercial viability.
More
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
You
don't run a business hoping you don't have a recession.
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