Baltic
Dry Index. 2038 -13 Brent Crude 66.86
Spot Gold 3354 US 2 Year Yield 3.76 unch.
US Federal Debt. 37.220 trillion
US GDP 30.195 trillion.
Inflation is the parent of unemployment and the unseen robber of those who have saved.
Margaret Thatcher
In good news for US children next Christmas, thanks to yet another Trump China Taco, toys made in China will be stockpiled ahead of any Trump China tariffs, now not due to take effect until November.
Still, tariffs by fickle Washington whim is no way to run a complex, highly integrated, global economy.
Stagflation or worse, lies just one blunder away. Jimmy Carter come back, all is forgiven.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 hits record high as U.S.-China
tariff truce extension lifts sentiment
Updated Tue, Aug 12 2025 11:37 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose Tuesday,
with Japan’s Nikkei
225 hitting a record high while the other key as investors assess
the U.S.-China
trade truce extension overnight that has allowed the world’s largest
economies more room to negotiate a deal.
Investors will be keeping a close watch on
the Reserve Bank of Australia rate verdict. The RBA is widely expected to slash
cash rates later in the day.
Here are the highlights of the day:
- Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 hits a
fresh record high ahead
of the central bank’s decision
- SoftBank Group shares
rallies for the fifth
consecutive session, leading gains in the Nikkei 225
- Singapore’s
trade ministry upgrades
its 2025 growth forecast for the republic to 1.5% -2.5%, from 0% -2%
previously
Trump’s China tariff
truce extension offers scope for ‘relief jump’ in HK stocks: Mizuho
U.S. President
Donald Trump’s decision to extend the trade truce with Beijing for another 90
days offers scope for a “relief jump” for stocks listed on the Hong Kong
exchange, Mizuho Securities’ head of macro research, Asia ex-Japan, Vishnu
Varathan, wrote in a Tuesday note.
He added that the
extension was presumably made on the “grounds of optimism about and goodwill
for an impending trade deal.”
Hong Kong stocks
have been trading near the flatline, with the Hang Seng Index last
seen up 0.05% as of 11: 32 a.m. local time (11:32 p.m. ET Monday).
Singapore’s trade ministry upgrades 2025 GDP
growth outlook to 1.5%-2.5%
Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry has
revised its 2025 growth forecast for the city-state upwards to 1.5%-2.5% from 0%-2%.
The ministry announced its narrowed forecast
Tuesday and said it “largely reflects the better-than-expected performance of
the Singapore economy in the first half of 2025.”
Singapore’s economy expanded by 4.4% on a
year-on-year basis in the second quarter ended June, extending the 4.1% growth
recorded in the preceding quarter, the ministry revealed.
— Amala Balakrishner
Asia
stock markets today: live updates
Trump extends China tariff deadline by 90 days
Published Mon, Aug 11 2025 2:31 PM EDT Updated
Mon, Aug 11 2025 4:31 PM EDT
President Donald Trump on Monday
delayed high U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods from snapping back into place for
another 90 days, a White House official told CNBC.
Those tariffs were set to resume Tuesday.
But Trump signed an executive order hours beforehand that extends the deadline
until mid-November, according to the official.
The delay was the expected outcome from
the latest
round of talks between U.S. trade negotiators and their Chinese
counterparts, which took place in Stockholm in late July.
If the deadline were not extended, then
U.S. duties on China would have shot back up to where they stood in April, when
the tariff war between the world’s largest trading nations was at its peak.
At that time, Trump had cranked up blanket
tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, and China had retaliated with 125% duties
on U.S. goods.
But the two sides agreed to pause most of
those tariffs in May, after negotiators met for the first time in Geneva. The
U.S. pared its tariffs back to 30%, and China dropped its levies to 10%.
Monday’s extension is the latest example
of how Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs have shifted with little prior
notice, a dynamic that has made U.S. trade policy unpredictable for many businesses.
Trump has previously announced steep
tariffs on countries or specific sectors, only to scale them back, tweak them
or pause them days or weeks later.
The “reciprocal tariffs” he initially
rolled out in early April, for instance, were quickly paused and then delayed
multiple times before taking effect in an altered form last week.
On Sunday, Trump said he wanted China to
“quickly quadruple” its orders of U.S. soybeans.
“This is also a way of substantially
reducing China’s Trade Deficit with the USA,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social
post.
Chicago soybean prices rose Monday. It was not immediately
clear if China has agreed to step up its soybean purchases in response to
Trump’s post.
Trump
extends China tariff deadline by 90 days
Cover Story: Trump’s Tariff-by-Tweet Tactics Are
Pushing Global Trade Into Perpetual Uncertainty
Published: Aug. 11, 2025 5:51
a.m. GMT+8
President Donald Trump’s trade policy has
entered a new, chaotic phase, where structured negotiations give way to abrupt
threats and legally nonbinding agreements that have left global commerce in a
state of constant tension.
After several delays, Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” took effect on Aug. 7,
hitting 67 countries with tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% — but leaving others
to guess what comes next.
The highest rates in the executive order
target Laos and Myanmar at 40% and Syria at 41%. Canada, a top U.S. trade
partner, faces a 35% tariff. India is subject to a 25% tariff in the order, but
that is expected to climb to 50% on Aug. 27 citing penalties for its purchase
of Russian oil.
----Four
months after threatening more than 180 economies with “reciprocal tariffs,”
Trump has created a landscape of rolling deadlines, ambiguous agreements and
the weaponization of trade policy for noneconomic
ends.
He rolled out the “Liberation Day” tariffs
on April 2, then delayed them, vowing to strike roughly 90 trade deals in 90
days. In early July, Trump set the deadline back until Aug. 1, then a day
before they came into effect announced another delay.
While the administration raced to strike
deals with some countries, the pace has been far slower than Trump promised.
Nations that announced deals with Washington have yet to sign binding
documents, leaving both governments and businesses to navigate an unpredictable
landscape.
Agreements with allies such as Japan and
the European Union are riddled with vague or conflicting terms. Japan is
contesting a new 15% U.S. tariff, and the EU’s pledge to buy $250 billion of
U.S. energy each year appears unrealistic.
This erratic approach has locked the U.S.
and its trading partners in what some officials are calling “perpetual
negotiations.” The ceaseless uncertainty is rippling through global supply
chains and is now beginning to rock the foundations of the American economy
itself.
On July 31, in a 30-minute phone call,
Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter believed she was finalizing a trade deal to
shield her country from Trump’s sweeping tariffs. Instead, the outcome was
shocking. Trump, incensed by a $39 billion trade deficit with the wealthy,
neutral nation, dismissed Switzerland’s offer of a 10% tariff rate. Hours after
the call, the White House announced it would hit Switzerland with a punitive
39% tariff, far higher than the 31% initially proposed in April.
“The woman was nice, but she didn’t want
to listen,” Trump later recounted in a media interview.
The Swiss episode is a microcosm of the
chaotic and deeply personal trade strategy defining Trump’s second term. His
tariff-by-tweet diplomacy is creating a new era of profound uncertainty, where
deals are vague, threats are personal and the economic consequences are only
beginning to surface.
More
Cover
Story: Trump’s Tariff-by-Tweet Tactics Are Pushing Global Trade Into Perpetual
Uncertainty
Small US Companies May Get Clobbered by Trump
Tariffs
August 11, 2025 at 10:30 PM GMT+1
It’s not just American consumers who are
set to pay for Donald Trump’s trade war. Small US companies—critical to the
economy as a source of more than half of its job creation—are
about to get clobbered, too.
The US Chamber of Commerce
estimated this month that the country has about 236,000 small-business
importers—those with fewer than 500 employees. In 2023, the goods they bought
from abroad were worth more than $868 billion.
They now face a combined annual tariff hit
of $202 billion and are finding it difficult to navigate all the red tape
required to comply with the president’s levies (the legality of which is yet
another variable, given ongoing litigation).
For example, the latest tariff numbers
from the White House, ranging from 10% to 50%, brought with them a need for
business owners to increase customs bonds—guarantees they must buy from surety
providers to ensure the government receives its tariff revenue, other taxes and
any potential penalties.
Big firms often have in-house resources to
handle additional bureaucratic hurdles, but compliance and forecasting are
“where the smaller companies are really struggling,” said Erin Williamson of
Geodis, a leading global logistics firm. “They may not have that internal
compliance group or the infrastructure to really sit back and say, ‘OK, this is
going to be the impact to us. How do we pivot?’” —David
E. Rovella
Small
US Companies Getting Clobbered by Trump Tariffs: Evening Briefing Americas -
Bloomberg
'Gold will not be tariffed': Trump's post ends a
market frenzy no one was ready for
August 11, 2025
President Donald Trump abruptly declared
that gold imports “will not be Tariffed,” ending a week of confusion that shook
global bullion markets and pushed futures to all-time highs.
“Gold will not be Tariffed!” Trump posted
on Truth Social, offering no explanation. His statement followed fallout from a
U.S. Customs and Border Protection ruling that had cast doubt on the tariff
status of widely traded bullion bar sizes—one kilogram and 100 ounces.
The July 31 customs letter, first reported
by the Financial Times, appeared to classify those bars as subject to
country-specific duties, triggering fears of a 39% levy on gold imports under
Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff framework. The ruling spurred December futures on
the Comex to record highs and ignited concern over disruptions to global supply
chains—especially in Switzerland, a major exporter of gold bars to the U.S.
Reuters reported that the White House was
drafting an executive order “clarifying misinformation” surrounding specialty
product tariffs. The administration, however, had remained silent for days,
leaving bullion markets in a holding pattern.
"Delighted to hear the crisis has
been averted," said Ross Norman, an independent gold market analyst. “It
will come as an enormous relief to the bullion markets, as the potential for
disruption was incalculable.”
Following Trump’s post, U.S. gold futures
fell 2.4% to $3,407 per ounce, while spot prices dropped 1.2% to $3,357. Shares
of Barrick Mining slipped 2.8% after releasing earnings, and Newmont— the
world’s largest gold producer—dipped slightly to $68.87.
Gold has hit record highs throughout the
year amid intensifying trade tensions and global instability. The brief tariff
scare added fresh volatility to an already jittery market.
'Gold
will not be tariffed': Trump's post ends a market frenzy no one was ready for
In other news, more self-inflicted EUSSR madness.
German aviation lobby warns of economic fallout as
airlines withdraw over costs
11 August 2025
BERLIN (Reuters) -Airlines are withdrawing
aircraft from Germany due to soaring state-imposed costs, the German Aviation
Association (BDL) said on Monday, warning of significant economic fallout.
The number of planes stationed in Germany
has dropped from 190 in 2019 to 130 this year, resulting in an estimated loss
of 10,000 jobs and 4 billion euros ($4.66 billion) in annual economic value
added, BDL said.
"Since 2019, state-imposed costs have
more than doubled, and airlines are increasingly avoiding Germany," said
BDL President Jens Bischof, urging the government to prioritise post-pandemic
recovery in the aviation sector.
The industry has criticised Berlin's
decision to postpone a planned reduction in aviation tax, arguing that
reversing the May 2024 hike would have signalled support for carriers.
State levies, including taxes, air traffic
control fees and security charges, are expected to rise by 1.1 billion to 4.4
billion euros this year, hampering recovery, said BDL.
Passenger numbers rose just 3% in the
first half of the year to 99.4 million, far below the 10% growth seen a year
earlier.
Germany ranks 28th out of 31 European
countries in post-pandemic aviation recovery, with seat capacity at 87% of 2019
levels, compared with a European average of 104%.
German aviation
lobby warns of economic fallout as airlines withdraw over costs
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
More
red flags from last week. More Great Disconnect in the stock casinos.
Wendy's
is struggling as low-income consumers cut back
August
9, 2025
Wendy's
cut its sales outlook Friday, pointing to heightened competition and economic
uncertainty weighing on its customer base.
Company
executives discussed Wendy's challenges during a call with analysts Friday,
following the release of its latest earnings report. Interim CEO Ken Cook said
that in light of the current environment, the company now expects full-year
global sales to decline between 3% and 5%, compared with previous projections of flat to
down 2%.
Wendy's
is coping with softer consumer demand in 2025, particularly among the
lower-income customers that tend to frequent fast-food chains, Sara Senatore, a
research analyst at Bank of America, told CBS MoneyWatch.
"The
low-income consumer remains under pressure," she said.
Fast
food chains like Wendy's are competing for the attention of low-income
consumers who have pulled back on eating out over concerns about the economy.
According to a May study from Bankrate, among households
earning less than $50,000 per year, 44% say they expect to spend less on
dining out this year than they did last year.
Cook,
who stepped in as interim CEO after former Wendy's former CEO Kirk Tanner
departed to lead the Hershey Company, cited a "a combination of dynamic
consumer behavior and a more challenging competitive environment" during a
Friday call with analysts to discuss the results.
While
sales improved in May and June due to new Frosty offerings, "overall
demand recovered more slowly than we expected," he added. The burger
chain's sales slipped 1.8% to $3.7 billion in the second quarter compared with
a year earlier, according to the company's earnings report.
Inflation-weary
consumers who are skipping breakfast could signal this growing pressure, with
Wendy's executives highlighting the trend.
More
Wendy's is
struggling as low-income consumers cut back
McDonald’s
Says Economic Stress Is Sapping Breakfast-Meal Sales
August
8, 2025
(Bloomberg)
-- McDonald’s Corp. is trying to make its breakfast menu more attractive to
entice budget-conscious diners who are skipping out on Egg McMuffins and hash
browns.
The
chain, like competitors, is seeing that breakfast is “absolutely the weakest
daypart,” Chief Executive Officer Chris Kempczinski said Wednesday on a call
with analysts following the chain’s earnings release.
It’s
the “most economically sensitive” meal time, because it’s easy for a “stressed
consumer to either skip breakfast or choose to eat breakfast at home,” he said.
The
chain earlier this year started advertising breakfast nationally in the US for
the first time in a while, Kempczinski said. McDonald’s is exploring “what more
we might be able to do with breakfast value,” he added, without offering more
details.
McDonald’s Says
Economic Stress Is Sapping Breakfast-Meal Sales
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Off topic but interesting.
Powerful new oral painkiller blocks signals without sedation or
addiction
August 09, 2025
Scientists have shown the efficacy of a new
non-opioid oral painkiller known as ADRIANA, the world's first selective
α2B-adrenoceptor antagonist – a receptor subtype not previously targeted for
analgesics. In clinical trials so far, it has provided powerful pain relief
without sedation or risk of addiction.
Researchers at Japan's Kyoto University Scientists
have developed an oral medication that targets the α2B adrenoceptor, a
little-studied brain receptor that scientists have found actually plays a major
role in mechanical pain. This makes it the first-ever α2B-selective painkiller.
This receptor belongs in the adrenergic receptor
family – α2A, α2B, α2C – but no approved drug has targeted a2B to inhibit
the receptor with high precision. Existing drugs like dexmedetomidine target
broad a2 receptors and in this example's case cause sedation and are not oral.
This in itself makes this small-molecule drug candidate, also known as compound
c545, a potentially new class of pain-relief
drug.
"If successfully commercialized, ADRIANA would
offer a new pain management option that does not rely on opioids, contributing
significantly to the reduction of opioid use in clinical settings," said
corresponding author Masatoshi Hagiwara, a specially-appointed professor at
Kyoto
The researchers found how a2B becomes more active
after nerve injury, and in mice was able to perform the genetic knockout
required to inhibit a2B, significantly shutting down neuropathic pain in the
animals. However, it's not just applicable for this kind of pain. Preclinical
work has shown it has promise for treating inflammatory and post-operative pain
too.
More
New
non-opioid painkiller ADRIANA shows promise
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
New
Graphene Oxide QC: Cheapest, Fastest Yet
11 Aug 2025 10:40 am AEST
King’s College London
The new method could help
accelerate the transition of the technology from the lab to everyday use.
Researchers at King's College
London have designed an 'interactional fingerprinting' method that creates a
unique identity of individual samples. By mimicking humans' sense of taste and
smell, the method can create a qualitative snapshot of the material without
relying on inaccessible gold-standard measurement machinery manned by teams of
specialists.
By promising a faster and
cheaper way to quality control graphene oxide, the scientists hope to remove
barriers to exploiting the material, unleashing advances in sustainable
electronics and cleaner battery technology.
Since Manchester-based researchers won the Nobel
Prize in Physics in 2010 for producing graphene, interest in graphene-based
materials has been significant. Their light weight, strength and conductivity
have led the Graphene Engineering Innovation Centre and National Graphene
Institute to invest £180 million to produce efficient batteries, body armour
and other products with GO and related materials.
While the potential of
graphene and GO is great progress deploying the materials beyond the lab have
been limited. A 2018 article highlighted an unreliable supply of commercially
available graphene and the unreliable test conditions that created as a primary
cause, concluding 'producers are labeling black
powders as graphene and selling for top dollar.'
For GO, the introduction of
different types of oxygen to single atom flakes of graphene can make supply
even more variable, with the same team of researchers arguing only a small
fraction of the material 'deliver(s) approximately
what they display on the label or brochure.'
Established methods to
characterise these materials exist, but each sample costs up to £5000 to
analyse in a process that can take teams of specialists a month. These
gold-standard measurements are also inaccessible to many across research and
industry, with many of the machines needed to take them prohibitively expensive
and not widely available.
The new work uses a
first-of-its-kind molecular probing device to characterise GO in a fraction of
the time and cost, empowering scientists to accelerate their research beyond
the lab.
Principal author, Dr Andrew
Surman, Senior Lecturer in Chemistry at King's College London explains
"Graphene Oxide is really promising. But if we're to make good progress,
we need to confirm that a new batch is like the last one. If your supply is unreliable
- and behaves differently every time - how do you go about designing better
products? Commercial services to test a new batch are expensive and can take
weeks. That's not often feasible.
"Our approach should
allow researchers and materials producers to perform a test in a couple of
hours, using cheap tools they likely already have access to, to quickly quality
control their samples where they work. By helping teams troubleshoot variation
in their supply it helps ensure what they are working with is up to scratch,
freeing them up for the important business of innovation in next-generation
technology."
Their method, published in
the Journal of the American
Chemical Society, mixes small samples of GO
dispersed in water with a series of molecular probes that fluoresce until they
interact with the material's surface.
More
New Graphene Oxide QC: Cheapest, Fastest Yet | Mirage News
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
The
first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second
is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But
both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.
Ernest Hemingway
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