Chairman Powell’s Big Day. Jackson Fold? The AI/Nvidia Bust?

Baltic Dry Index. 1893 -34           Brent Crude 67.65

Spot Gold 3328                 US 2 Year Yield 3.79 +0.05

US Federal Debt. 37.262 trillion

US GDP 30.216 trillion.

So: if the chronic inflation undergone by Americans, and in almost every other country, is caused by the continuing creation of new money, and if in each country its governmental "Central Bank" (in the United States, the Federal Reserve) is the sole monopoly source and creator of all money, who then is responsible for the blight of inflation? Who except the very institution that is solely empowered to create money, that is, the Fed (and the Bank of England, and the Bank of Italy, and other central banks) itself?

Murray Rothbard

Did another stock bubble just burst?

Will Fed Chair/sofa/pouffe Powell unload on Trump later today?

Whatever the couch of the Fed says later today it’s meaningless if the Great AI bubble is bursting.

Warren Buffett will eventually get to pick up the remnants.

Getting out early always beats getting carried out last.

Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed as investors look ahead to U.S. Fed chair Powell’s speech

Published Thu, Aug 21 2025 7:43 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Friday as investors await U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the central bank’s annual economic symposium, which could offer clues into the path of interest rates.

South Korea’s Kospi jumped 0.66% and the small-cap Kosdaq was 0.41% higher.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 slipped 0.18%, while the Topix rose 0.37%.

The country’s core inflation rate cooled to 3.1% in July, coming down from 3.3% the month before. The figure — which strips out costs for fresh food — was higher than the 3% expected by economists polled by Reuters. Rice inflation eased to 90.7% in July, following two months of inflation surging past the 100% mark.

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.3% after the index crossed the 9,000 mark for the first time Thursday.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 jumped 1.18%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.32%.

India’s Nifty 50 slipped 0.52% at the open.

Overnight stateside, stocks fell broadly Thursday, with the S&P 500 sliding for the fifth day in a row.

The broad-market index shed 0.4% and closed at 6,370.17, while the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.34% and settled at 21,100.31. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 152.81 points, or 0.34%, ending at 44,785.50.

Fed funds futures are pricing in a nearly 74% likelihood of the central bank cutting rates at its next policy gathering in September, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Asia-Pacific markets live: Japan CPI, Nikkei 225, Kospi

CNBC Daily Open: Jackson Hole takes on new significance amid Trump’s pressure on the Fed

Published Thu, Aug 21 2025 9:14 PM EDT

Jerome Powell, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, will be giving his keynote address at the annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming, gathering of central bankers and economists on Friday stateside.

It’ll be one of the most important speeches by a central bank official — even more so than Powell’s press conferences after the Fed’s rate-setting meetings — because Jackson Hole gives Powell an opportunity to lay out the bank’s longer-term economic frameworks, such as its inflation targets and how it evaluates employment.

For Powell, it’s doubly significant, since the keynote address will probably be his last before his term as Fed chair ends in May 2026.

Even though U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to evict him from his seat prior to that date, the Supreme Court earlier this year indicated that Fed officials have special protection against presidential firings. (It seems that being a central banker in the U.S. might be the only way to protect yourself from layoffs and displacement by artificial intelligence today.)

That said, the Trump administration doesn’t seem to be relenting its pressure on Fed officials. The Department of Justice will investigate Fed Governor Lisa Cook based on a criminal referral by a White House official, according to a letter obtained by CNBC’s Sara Eisen on Thursday.

In a typical year, Jackson Hole sparks excitement mostly among market watchers and finance nerds (i.e. yours truly). This time, the symposium feels more pivotal, almost like a gathering of people quietly struggling for central bank independence.

What you need to know today

The U.S. and EU announce tariff details. Automotive exports to the U.S. will face a 15% tariff — after the EU introduces legislation to reduce their industrial duties. Pharmaceuticals will see levies capped at a maximum of 15%. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to give a big speech on Friday. At Jackson Hole, a gathering of central bankers to talk economic policy, Powell is expected to discuss the Fed’s long-term policy goals — in what will almost certainly be his last keynote there.

Google scores a $10-billion cloud deal with Meta. Under the agreement, Google will provide Meta cloud services mainly related to AI over six years, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Major U.S. indexes had a red Thursday. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% for its fifth losing session in a row. Europe’s regional Stoxx 600 was flat, snapping a three-day winning streak, as investors shrugged off details of the EU-U.S. trade agreement.

[PRO] No relief rally for European pharmaceuticals. Despite U.S. and EU officials announcing that pharmaceuticals will not be subject to higher tariffs, investors don’t appear to trust the deal.

CNBC Daily Open: New significance for Jackson Hole amid Trump's pressure

In other news, easy come easy go.

US tech stocks lose $1 trillion on AI bubble fears

20 August 2025

The US stock market has seen $1 trillion wiped off in four days as a sell-off in tech companies deepened on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 fell for the fourth consecutive day on Wednesday amid fears that an AI-powered stock market rally could be about to collapse. 

The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell by as much as 1.8pc in early trading on Wednesday, bringing the index down by as much 7pc so far this week in its worst sell-off since April.

The Nasdaq has since pared back some of its losses but was still down by nearly 1pc by Wednesday afternoon.

The drop-off has been fuelled by concerns that AI companies are overvalued, with some claiming they have little to show for the billions of pounds of investment that have been ploughed into companies such as OpenAI.

Shares in Nvidia, the world’s largest company with a $4 trillion valuation, fell by 3.3pc in early trading on Wednesday, before recovering slightly. 

The technology giant, which makes the chips that power vast AI data centres, was down 4.9pc since Monday.

Shares in Palantir, the US data business and defence contractor, also sank by as much as 6pc on Wednesday before partially recovering. The value of its stock has tumbled by a fifth in six days.

Shares in American chipmaker Intel plunged by more than 7pc while UK chipmaker Arm’s share price was down by 3.6pc on Wednesday.

It comes after a report from researchers at MIT suggested that 95pc of corporate AI projects are so far generating “zero return” for businesses.

Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, said: “The MIT report into the AI boom has soured sentiment.”

OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman also made public remarks last week that some investors had become “overexcited” about AI.

More

US tech stocks lose $1 trillion on AI bubble fears

This is the critical detail that could unravel the AI trade: Nobody is paying for it.

As Big Tech companies spend billions on AI buildout, their ability to generate cash is starting to take a hit

Published: Aug. 21, 2025 at 3:27 p.m. ET

Those who bet against the artificial-intelligence growth story have found themselves missing out on an epic multiyear rally. But there’s increasing evidence that an AI revolution may be hitting a cashless brick wall.

While the stock prices of some of the biggest technology companies have climbed almost straight up since April, something else is dropping: free cash flow, or the newly generated cash remaining after the tech behemoths pay their operating expenses and soaring capital expenditures.

Chasing AI hasn’t been cheap for the big hyperscalers — the cloud-services providers building out the infrastructure powering the AI boom. They are investing massively. Alphabet Inc.  are on track to spend nearly $400 billion this year on capital expenditures. It’s a marked departure from these companies’ previously capex-light business models.

But very few businesses or consumers are actually paying for AI. So free cash flow has been declining for hyperscalers, with the exception of Microsoft. For the past two reported quarters, free cash flow has been negative for Amazon and Oracle, and it has declined for Alphabet and Meta. That means less cash is available to be returned to shareholders through stock buybacks or dividends.

So far, Nvidia Corp.   has been the big winner, reaping the benefits of supplying the AI gold rush by selling the graphics processing units that are housed in the hyperscalers’ data centers. Demand for GPUs has been so high that Nvidia has been supply-constrained for years. But at some point, the hyperscalers might be reluctant to keep burning cash.

Here is how much free cash flow the five major hyperscalers and Nvidia have generated over their past two reported fiscal quarters compared with year-earlier periods:

More

This is the critical detail that could unravel the AI trade: Nobody is paying for it. - MarketWatch

Nvidia looking to halt H20 chip production after China cracks down on purchases, reports say

Published Thu, Aug 21 2025 10:45 PM EDT

Nvidia has asked some of its component suppliers to stop production related to its made-for-China H20 general processing units, as Beijing cracks down on the American chip darling, The Information reported Friday. 

The directive comes weeks after the Chinese government told local tech companies to stop buying the chips due to alleged security concerns, the report said, citing people with knowledge of the matter.

Nvidia reportedly has asked Arizona-based Amkor Technology, which handles the advanced packaging of the company’s H20 chips, and South Korea’s Samsung Electronics, which supplies memory for them, to halt production. Samsung and Amkor did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment. 

A separate report from Reuters, citing sources, said that Nvidia had asked Foxconn to suspend work related to the H20s. Foxconn did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

In response to an inquiry from CNBC, an Nvidia spokesperson said “We constantly manage our supply chain to address market conditions.”

The news further throws the return of the H20s to the China market in doubt, after Washington said it would issue export licenses, allowing the chip’s exports to China — whose shipment had effectively been banned in April.  

Last month, the Cyberspace Administration of China had summoned Nvidia regarding national security concerns with the H20s and had asked the company to provide information on the chips. 

Beijing has raised concerns that the chips could be have certain tracking technology or “backdoors,” allowing them to be operated remotely. U.S. lawmakers have proposed legislation that would require AI chips under export regulations to be equipped with location-tracking systems to avoid their illegal shipments.

Speaking to reporters in Taiwan on Friday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang acknowledged that China had asked questions about security “backdoors,” and that the company had made it clear they do not exist.

“Hopefully the response that we’ve given to the Chinese government will be sufficient. We’re in discussions with them,” he said, adding that Nvidia had been “surprised” by the queries.

More

Nvidia looking to halt H20 chip production after China cracks down on purchases

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Moody’s chief who nailed 2007 housing bust revives recession fears

August 20, 2025

Recession warnings are everywhere, but Mark Zandi’s hits different.

The Moody’s chief economist, who flagged the 2007 housing collapse before most dared calling it a bubble, now sees serious recession risks hiding in plain sight.

Beneath the numbers, Zandi is seeing a labor market that’s quietly unraveling, dissecting undercurrents that the market’s ignoring. 

These typically aren’t the signals investors typically focus on, but for Zandi, these matter the most given the current setup.

And when he points below the surface, history says it’s best to listen.

Who is Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi?

Mark Zandi is a popular longtime chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and is perhaps one of the most quoted names during economic crises.

He became a regular fixture in Washington during the 2008 financial meltdown, essentially becoming the “explain-and-forecast” guy for lawmakers and the media.

In fact, when the much-talked-about $787 billion stimulus package was being discussed in early 2009, then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi cited his research on multiple occasions in press briefings to build support.

His models underscored the importance of a stimulus and unemployment benefits to supercharge the GDP and the job market.

However, Zandi’s credibility was mostly built in 2006-2007, before the crash. His now-famous report, Housing at the Tipping Point, warned of the remarkably high odds of national housing prices dropping in 2007.

He called it the first national price drop since the Great Depression. Also, he flagged more than 100 U.S. metro areas at risk while projecting double-digit declines that later materialized in multiple key markets.

Moody's Mark Zandi sees recession risks rising

Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi just sounded the alarm on the U.S. economy, zeroing in on the labor market as the primary weak link.

“Yeah, I think recession risks are really high,” he said on CNBC’s "Money Movers." “I think the key here is jobs.”

Zandi notes the latest job reports have effectively stalled out.

“With the recent data, we've seen jobs data come to a virtual standstill, and I don't see any reason why we'll see any pick up here anytime soon.”

Sadly, the numbers back him exactly what he’s pointing towards. July added just 73,000 jobs, and previous months were quietly revised down by 258,000.

That puts the three-month average around the 35,000 mark — sluggish speed, to say the least.

Unemployment’s stuck at 4.2%, and quits held at 2.0%, which is a clear sign that workers aren’t feeling bold. This setup puts the economy perilously close to a downturn.

Perhaps the real danger he senses is that we start seeing negative prints.

“If we start getting some negative job numbers, which I think is really very possible, that would be a clear indication of a recession.”

Typically, a 0.5-point unemployment bump signals recession. However, with flat immigrant labor growth at this time, that signal has gotten a lot fuzzier.

Simply put, fewer jobs equals less spending equals sluggish growth, which makes payrolls a much sharper recession signal.Zandi feels payroll employment, which is the monthly change in jobs added or lost, is perhaps a cleaner measure at this point. If payrolls turn negative, it means businesses are actually cutting jobs rather than having just a tough time absorbing new workers.

more

Moody’s chief who nailed 2007 housing bust revives recession fears

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Tongwei achieves 31.4% efficiency for perovskite-silicon tandem solar cell

Chinese researchers, led by a research team from PV Technology Centre of Tongwei Co., Ltd, used a sequential annealing process in the fabrication of tandem solar cells, featuring a wide bandgap perovskite top cell on a fully-textured commercial crystalline silicon heterojunction bottom cell. The resulting device had a certified power conversion efficiency of 31.4%, outperforming a 29.43%-efficient control cell.

August 20, 2025 Valerie Thompson

Scientists in China, led by a research team from the PV Technology Centre of Tongwei Co., Ltd, a unit of Chinese vertically integrated solar manufacturer Tongwei, used a lower temperature, sequential annealing process to fabricate two-terminal, tandem solar cells that had a wide-bandgap (1.73 eV) perovskite top cell on a fully-textured commercial crystalline silicon heterojunction (SHJ) bottom cell.

“With a carefully modulated sequential annealing process in ambient, we obtain high-quality wide-bandgap perovskite films conformally grown on fully textured silicon substrates with reduced defects and homogeneous composition distribution, enabling the achievement of perovskite-silicon tandems with a certified power conversion efficiency (PCE) of 31.4%, which is among the best-performing tandem devices utilizing commercial silicon sub-cells,” Yuchao Hu, corresponding author of the research, told pv magazine.

The champion tandem device was certified by the National Institute of Measurement and Testing Technology (NIMTT) and by the Fujian Institute of Metrology (FJIM).

The research is described in “Crystallization Modulation of Wide-Bandgap Perovskites on Textured Silicon for Tandem Solar Cells,” published in ACS Energy Letters.

Aware of the challenges of using a conventional evaporation-solution two-step method to form wide-bandgap perovskites on commercial SHJ silicon bottom cells, the research team investigated ways to overcome moisture and thermal-induced complex effects on the crystallisation and degradation of perovskite films.

The team investigated the perovskite phase transition process to reveal the crystallisation kinetics mechanism of wide-bandgap perovskites, “clarifying the influence mechanisms of external conditions,” such as humidity and heat on film crystallization.

“To overcome the complex issue, we developed a sequential crystallisation strategy and realised fine modulations on both the organic halide diffusion and perovskite recrystallization processes. This innovative strategy enabled the fabrication of conformally grown high-quality wide-bandgap perovskite films featuring chemically homogeneous components and reduced defects on silicon cells with large pyramids,” specified Hu.

It is a strategy that has industrial transfer potential. “The annealing process requires temperatures as low as 100-150 C and durations under half an hour,” said Hu, explaining that such conditions are “readily achievable” with established industrial annealing equipment, such as tunnel furnaces, “demonstrating strong potential for process scale-up.”

The perovskite material for the top cell was made of formamidinium iodide (FAI), formamidinium bromide (FABr), cesium bromide (CsBr), plus additives.

More

Tongwei achieves 31.4% efficiency for perovskite-silicon tandem solar cell – pv magazine Australia

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Another weekend and the end of summer in the northern hemisphere fast approaches. Normally the summer harvest season brings lower food prices, but that doesn’t seem to be happening this year due to northern hemisphere weather. Will Trump's tariff wars and food price inflation tip the global economy into recession? Hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Have a great weekend everyone.

Whether the weather be fine, or whether the weather be not,
Whether the weather be cold, or whether the weather be hot,
We'll weather the weather, whatever the weather,
Whether we like it or not.

Anon.

The Fed, BoE On Interest Rates Hold. Jackson Hold?

Baltic Dry Index. 1927 -37           Brent Crude 67.16

Spot Gold 3338                 US 2 Year Yield 3.74 -0.01

US Federal Debt. 37.258 trillion

US GDP 30.214 trillion.

Government machinery has been described as a marvelous labour saving device which enables ten men to do the work of one.

John Maynard Keynes

Stocks, was that it? Are we there yet? Has the latest fiat money, stocks inflation bubble just ran into its pin?

Was Warren Buffett right to be selling out, all along?

Has Trump’s tariffs lunacy finally caught out stocks?

Is it Fed Chairman Powell hit back time tomorrow in his Jackson Hole speech?

Well maybe not in public, but what will Chairman Powell be briefing in private? Tariffs will stoke runaway inflation?

Bunker time for the next few weeks.

Stock futures are flat after a 4-day losing streak for S&P 500: Live updates

Updated Thu, Aug 21 2025 7:28 PM EDT

Stock futures were little changed in overnight trading Wednesday following a four-day losing streak for the S&P 500 as tech names dragged the broader market lower.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were flat. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures also traded near the flatline.

Big Tech names and chipmakers led losses again in Wednesday’s regular trading as investors continued to rotate out of high-flying stocks. Amazon, Apple and Alphabet all registered losses of more than 1%. Broadcom dipped 1.3%, while Intel dropped 7%. At one point in the session, Nvidia fell more than 3%, but the stock closed just 0.1% lower.

“There just hasn’t been much conviction behind the recent bout of tech selling, and most people assume it will be over relatively soon,” Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, said in a note. “This mindset suggests a dangerous degree of complacency, and it means the ‘pain trade’ will be for the tech underperformance to continue.”

Investors are eager to hear from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday at the central bank’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., where he could offer insights into the path of interest rates.

Fed funds futures are pricing in a more than 80% likelihood of the central bank cutting interest rates at its next policy gathering in September, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Minutes from Fed’s July meeting showed policymakers are worried about the state of the labor market and inflation, though most agreed that it was too soon to lower interest rates. Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman dissented against holding rates steady, marking the first time two voting Fed officials have done so since 1993.

“The Fed is worried about inflation accelerating as companies pass tariffs on to consumers,” said David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation. “The minutes are consistent with Powell’s hawkish comments last meeting. The bulls might get some cold water splashed in their faces at Jackson Hole.”

On Thursday, traders will watch for Walmart earnings before the bell, followed by results from Workday in the afternoon. On the economic front, weekly jobless claims and existing home sales data are also due.

Stock market today: Live updates

Inflation Risks Trouble the Fed More Than the Labor Market

August 20, 2025 at 10:45 PM GMT+1

Most Federal Reserve officials highlighted inflation risks as outweighing concerns over the labor market at their meeting last month, as President Donald Trump’s tariffs fueled a growing divide within the central bank’s rate-setting committee.

Officials acknowledged worries over higher inflation and weaker employment, but a majority of the 18 policymakers in attendance “judged the upside risk to inflation as the greater of these two risks,” according to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s July 29-30 meeting.

Policymakers left interest rates unchanged in a range of 4.25% to 4.5% last month, citing elevated uncertainty in their outlook as economic activity moderated during the first six months of Trump’s term. Their statement at the time characterized the labor market as “solid” but said inflation remained “somewhat elevated.”

Indeed, the biggest spike in wholesale inflation in three years provided the latest sign that companies have begun to raise prices to offset rising input costs. Some Fed officials have voiced concerns that Trump’s trade war will influence prices well into next year. —David E. Rovella

Inflation Risks Trouble the Fed More Than the Labor Market: Evening Briefing - Bloomberg

CNBC Daily Open: The U.S. tech-sell off extends to its second day — but don’t let it ruin your summer

Published Wed, Aug 20 2025 9:22 PM EDT

If you have any U.S. technology stocks in your portfolio (and let’s face it, who doesn’t?), you might want to look away.

For the second day in a row, tech stocks dragged markets lower, with the Nasdaq Composite slipping 0.67%. Juggernauts such as Apple, Amazon and Alphabet were more meh-nificent than magnificent, falling more than 1%.

Palantir — the standout S&P 500 stock, having more than doubled so far this year — spent its sixth consecutive day in the red and lost its place among a ranking of the 20 most valuable U.S. companies.

While Palantir’s slide was partly triggered by a report from short seller Andrew Left’s Citron Research, which called the company “detached from fundamentals and analysis,” there was no single trigger for the broader pullback.

Investors could have been spooked by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s caution about an AI bubble forming, although some analysts dispute that assertion. “In our view the tech bull cycle will be well intact at least for another 2-3 years,” said Wall Street tech bull Dan Ives.

Or it could be something benign, like traders locking in profits. “Tech stocks,” said Carol Schleif, chief market strategist at BMO Private Wealth, “have had an incredibly strong run – with some up over 80% since the early April lows.”

Summer, after all, is far from over. Some investors might have just wanted to cash out for another round of margaritas.

What you need to know today

Fed officials divided over inflation and employment worries. Central bank governors generally agreed there were risks on both sides. But a couple — breaking from the majority — saw the labor market woes as more pressing, according to minutes of the Fed’s July meeting.

Trump likely to pick Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair. The director of the National Economic Council firmly led the pack, according to a CNBC Fed Survey. However, respondents think the president “should” pick former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh.

No new solar or wind power projects, Trump says. Renewable energy projects will no longer receive approval, Trump posted Wednesday on Truth Social. His comment comes after the administration already tightened federal permitting last month. 

Fourth day of losses for the S&P 500. Investors continued selling off technology stocks on Wednesday, with Palantir having its sixth straight losing day. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 closed at another high despite inflation in July coming in hotter than expected.

----Trump has snapped up more than $100 million in bonds since taking office

U.S. President Donald Trump has been on a multimillion-dollar bond-buying spree since taking office in January, investing in debt issued by local authorities, gas districts and major American corporations.

Across 33 pages of filings with the U.S. Office of Government Ethics, or OGE, dated Aug. 12, the president outlined 690 transactions that have taken place since he took office. The documents were made public on Tuesday.

CNBC Daily Open: Second day of U.S. tech-sell off — but don't panic

Japan’s July exports clock steepest plunge in over four years, dropping by a more than expected 2.6%

Published Tue, Aug 19 2025 7:58 PM EDT Updated Tue, Aug 19 2025 8:44 PM EDT

Japan’s exports plunged 2.6% in July from a year earlier, their steepest drop since February 2021, as shipments to its two largest markets — the United States and China — declined.

The fall was sharper than the 2.1% contraction forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with a 0.5% decline in June.

Imports to the world’s fourth-largest economy sank 7.5%, less than the 10.4% fall expected.

Exports to the U.S. also continued to fall, dropping 10.1% in July and slightly softer than June’s decline of 11.4%. The U.S. is the largest market for Japanese exports.

Shipments to mainland China — Japan’s second largest export market — declined 3.5% compared to the same month last year, but shipments to Hong Kong spiked 17.7%.

The weak trade data came after Japan’s economy grew stronger than expected in the second quarter, with GDP rising 0.3% from the previous quarter and 1.2% from a year earlier, as net exports drove growth.

Hirofumi Suzuki, Chief FX Strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, told CNBC after the GDP release that while exports have been volatile, there was a higher level of automobile shipments in April to June.

He attributed the increase to a catch-up in shipments after production recovered from an accident at an automobile parts manufacturer in March.

While Suzuki did not name the company, Reuters reported that there was an explosion on March 7 at a plant in central Japan that supplies auto parts to the world’s largest carmaker, Toyota Motor.

Tariffs on automobiles were cut from 25% to 15% as part of Japan’s trade deal. Autos are one of Japan’s largest exports, and make up its largest export to the U.S. in 2024.

The value of auto exports — which includes cars, buses and trucks — to the U.S. plunged 28.4% year over year in July, a steeper fall compared to the 26.7% decline in June.

More

Japan's July exports drop by 2.6%, steepest plunge in over four years

In other news, trouble at (copper) mine.

Trump slams 'anti-American' pushback after fresh delay to Arizona copper mine

Published Wed, Aug 20 2025 4:28 AM EDT

U.S. President Donald Trump has slammed an appeals court decision to temporarily block a land transfer needed by mining giants Rio Tinto and BHP to develop what is slated to become one of the country's biggest copper mines.

In a post on social media platform Truth Social on Tuesday, Trump said the latest setback to Arizona's Resolution Copper mine would impact thousands of jobs at a time when the world's largest economy "quite simply, needs Copper — AND NOW!"

His comments came shortly after he met the chief executives of Rio Tinto and BHP at the White House, alongside Interior Secretary Doug Burgum.

Two of the world's largest mining firms, Rio Tinto and BHP have been trying to develop the Arizona copper project together for roughly two decades, but the procedures have been beset by legal issues.

The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on Monday issued a temporary restraining order to prevent a land transfer while the court considers challenges that have been brought by opponents including the San Carlos Apache Tribe, which is seeking to block the project over religious, cultural and environmental reasons.

"It is so sad that Radical Left Activists can do this, and affect the lives of so many people. Those that fought it are Anti-American, and representing other Copper competitive Countries," Trump said in a Truth Social post.

Resolution Copper described the Monday ruling as "merely a temporary pause," adding it was confident the court would ultimately affirm the necessary land transfer.

"This proposed mine is a rip-off, will destroy a sacred area, decimates our environment, threatens our water rights, and is bad for America," Terry Rambler, chairman of the San Carlos Apache Tribe, said in a Facebook post.

Addressing Trump's Truth Social post on the recent court ruling, Rambler said the U.S. president's comments "mirror misinformation that has been repeated by foreign mining interests that want to extract American copper."

He added that he was willing to meet with the Trump administration to help "protect American interests."

Copper demand

The Arizona copper project is a proposed underground mine roughly 60 miles east of Phoenix, close to the the town of Superior. The joint venture is 55% owned by Rio Tinto and 45% by BHP.

Resolution Copper says the ore deposit represents "one of the most significant untapped copper deposits today" and estimates the potential for the project to add $1 billion a year to Arizona's economy.

A highly conducive metal, copper is a critical component to virtually everything in the modern economy, from solar panels and wind turbines to defense applications and artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Demand for copper is expected to skyrocket over the coming years, dramatically outstripping supply amid the energy transition.

----The U.S. produces only about 5% of the world's copper, according to Dutch bank ING and has seen a 20% decline in production over the last decade. Building new mines in the country, meanwhile, can take a considerable amount of time due to a lengthy permitting process.

----More than half of global copper reserves are said to be located in just five countries — Chile, Australia, Peru, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Russia.

Copper: Trump slams 'anti-American' pushback over Arizona project

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

UK inflation rises by more than expected to 3.8% amid higher food prices

20 August 2025

Inflation rose again last month to a higher than expected 3.8% amid higher food and fuel prices, adding to fears that the Bank of England will delay further interest rate cuts.

Figures showed the annual rate as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) climbed from June’s 3.6% reading, sitting above the central bank’s 2% target for the 10th consecutive month.

That overshot financial market forecasts of a 3.7% figure for July and all but rules out another reduction in the cost of borrowing this year, with financial markets not fully pricing in the chance of a fresh quarter-point cut until next spring.

The data also suggests rail fares are on track to rise by 5.8% next year. Increases in regulated train ticket prices are usually calculated by adding one percentage point to July’s inflation reading as measured by the retail prices index, which was 4.8%.

The Office for National Statistics said a jump in airfares was behind much of the increase in average prices. Petrol prices nudged prices higher after a comparison with last year, when prices at the pumps were falling.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages were up 4.9% year on year in July, an increase from 4.5% in the 12 months to June.

Droughts in Spain, Italy and Portugal, where the UK sources much of its fresh fruit and vegetables have pushed up prices this summer at a time when prices would usually fall.

The Bank of England trimmed interest rates to 4% earlier this month in line with projections of falling inflation over the next two years. However, several MPC members voted to hold interest rates until the trend became clearer and July’s jump in CPI is likely to push the timing of future cuts deeper into 2026.

Companies have blamed employment tax rises and the uncertainty caused Donald Trump’s tariff war for an increase in domestic prices, while droughts in Spain have pushed up the cost of food.

Cornwall Insight, the energy consultancy, said on Tuesday that it expected the energy price cap covering domestic electricity and gas would go up by £17 or 1% in October, adding to domestic fuel costs.

UK inflation rises by more than expected to 3.8% amid higher food prices

No more interest rate cuts expected as inflation runs ‘miles above target’

Wednesday 20 August 2025 12:09 pm

No further interest rate cuts are expected to be made this year after inflation in the year to July was higher than economists forecast. 

Markets had priced in a 50 per cent chance of an interest rate cut being made at the Bank of England’s November meeting before fresh price growth data was published on Wednesday morning. 

But investors rapidly cut expectations and now believe it is more likely that interest rates will be held at four per cent, with inflation proving to be stickier than most economists forecast. 

The Bank of England’s early August forecast correctly predicted inflation in July would be 3.8 per cent. 

Services inflation, however, was higher than Bank forecasts at five per cent but this was partly due to higher airfares in a busy holiday period for British families. 

ING economist James Smith said a “larger-than-usual” rise in airfares could be ignored by the Bank of England. 

A three-way split on the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) earlier this month left analysts across the City on edge as it pointed to divided opinions on the effects of a weakened jobs market and high inflation, partly driven by a larger rise in food prices. 

Food prices ticked up by 4.9 per cent over 12 months due to packaging taxes and higher commodity prices for coffee and oranges, which could worry Bank officials.  

UK inflation is expected to rise higher to four per cent in September, with food prices rising further. 

Deutsche Bank’s Sanjary Raja said the trade-off between a weakened jobs market and high inflation may force the MPC to “look for more patience” as it makes interest rates decisions. 

Pantheon Macroeconomics, which called for interest rates to be held before the August decision, said doves on the MPC had “taken a battering” given inflation remained high and GDP figures beat consensus predictions. 

“It is easy to forget that inflation in July was also well above the MPC’s expectations just a few months ago in the May Monetary Policy Report for instance, which projected headline inflation of 3.4 per cent, and services consumer price index (CPI) of 4.7 per cent,” Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Elliott Jordan-Doak said. 

“The big picture remains that inflation is set to stay miles above target for the foreseeable future.”

More

No more interest rate cuts expected this year due to high inflation

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

This research needs more follow up investigation, since not all excess deaths will be attributable to covid vaccination.

Significant Increase in Excess Deaths after Repeated COVID-19 Vaccination in Japan

2025 Mar 7;8(2):584–586. doi: 10.31662/jmaj.2024-0298

Abstract

Although Japan recorded the world’s highest rate of COVID-19 messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) vaccination doses per capita, COVID-19 cases and deaths exploded after the emergence of the Omicron variant, followed by a significant increase in excess deaths in 2022 and 2023. Although several hypotheses have been proposed to explain these phenomena, the truth remains to be established because sufficient studies and data disclosures have not been conducted to adequately investigate the possible contribution of mRNA vaccines. The causes of the excess deaths from not only COVID-19 but also other factors after repeated mRNA vaccinations must be elucidated, given this could provide valuable information to help combat future infectious disease outbreaks.

Japan recorded one of the world’s highest rates of COVID-19 vaccination doses per capita, amounting to 3.6 doses as of March 2024 ⁽¹⁾, behind only Cuba and Chile. Because Cuba primarily used protein subunit vaccines ⁽²⁾ and Chile primarily used inactivated vaccines ⁽³⁾, Japan has the highest per capita rate of messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) vaccination doses in the world.

Japan was regarded as one of the most successful countries in handling the early stages of the pandemic, with much lower numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths than other developed countries. After the emergence of the Omicron variant, however, the number of infections surged dramatically in Japan in 2022, despite more than 80% of the population having been fully vaccinated. Surprisingly, the number of excess deaths per million in Japan exceeded 1400 in 2023, three times higher than that in the United States, whereas COVID-19 deaths in Japan accounted for only 10% of these excess deaths ⁽⁴⁾.

Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the cause of the significant number of excess deaths in 2022 and 2023. The most popular hypothesis is COVID-19-related deaths, including 1) people who died from COVID-19 but were either not tested or did not receive positive test results and 2) people who died because of the shortage of medical resources due to the surge in COVID-19 cases. On May 8, 2023, however, Japan downgraded COVID-19 from its category as a novel influenza, which required patients with COVID-19 to be treated only at designated medical institutions, to class 5 (the same as seasonal flu), which made it easier for hospitals to treat both patients with and those without COVID-19. Despite this major policy shift, the number of excess deaths in 2023 remained as high as in 2022.

Another hypothesized cause of the excess deaths is various adverse reactions to COVID-19 vaccinations. Indeed, under its relief system for injury to health with vaccination, the government has provided payouts for as many as 8432 injuries including 903 deaths after COVID-19 vaccination as of November 18, 2024 ⁽⁵⁾, numbers that are still increasing and already greatly exceed the numbers of injuries and deaths for which payments were made after all other vaccinations in the last 47 years. The aforementioned cases comprise many injuries and deaths in the young population, including the fatal case of a 14-year-old girl ⁽⁶

More

Significant Increase in Excess Deaths after Repeated COVID-19 Vaccination in Japan - PMC

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Scientists just made vibrations so precise they can spot a single molecule

Breakthrough could open door to next-gen technologies in sensing, computing and beyond.

Date: August 16, 2025

Source: Rice University

Summary: Rice University scientists have discovered a way to make tiny vibrations, called phonons, interfere with each other more strongly than ever before. Using a special sandwich of silver, graphene, and silicon carbide, they created a record-breaking effect so sensitive it can detect a single molecule without labels or complex equipment. This breakthrough could open new possibilities for powerful sensors, quantum devices, and technologies that control heat and energy at the smallest scales.

Just as overlapping ripples on a pond can amplify or cancel each other out, waves of many kinds -- including light, sound and atomic vibrations -- can interfere with one another. At the quantum level, this kind of interference powers high-precision sensors and could be harnessed for quantum computing.

In a new study published in Science Advances, researchers at Rice University and collaborators have demonstrated a strong form of interference between phonons -- the vibrations in a material's structure that constitute the tiniest units, or quanta, of heat or sound in that system. The phenomenon where two phonons with different frequency distributions interfere with each other, known as Fano resonance, was two orders of magnitude greater than any previously reported.

"While this phenomenon is well-studied for particles like electrons and photons, interference between phonons has been much less explored," said Kunyan Zhang, a former postdoctoral researcher at Rice and first author on the study. "That is a missed opportunity, since phonons can maintain their wave behavior for a long time, making them promising for stable, high-performance devices."

By showing that phonons can be harnessed as effectively as light or electrons, the study paves the way for a new generation of phonon-based technologies. The team's breakthrough hinges on the use of a two-dimensional metal on top of a silicon carbide base. Using a technique called confinement heteroepitaxy, the researchers intercalated just a few layers of silver atoms between a layer of graphene and silicon carbide, producing a tightly bound interface with remarkable quantum properties.

"The 2D metal triggers and strengthens the interference between different vibrational modes in silicon carbide, reaching record levels," Zhang said.

The research team studied how phonons interfere with each other by looking at the shape of their signal in Raman spectroscopy, a technique that measures the vibrational modes of a material. The spectrum revealed a sharply asymmetric line shape and in some cases showed a complete dip, forming an antiresonance pattern characteristic of intense interference.

The effect proved highly sensitive to the specificities of the silicon carbide surface. The comparison between three different surface terminations of silicon carbide revealed a clear link between each surface and its unique Raman line shape. Moreover, when the researchers introduced a single dye molecule to the surface, the spectral line shape changed dramatically.

"This interference is so sensitive that it can detect the presence of a single molecule," Zhang said. "It enables label-free single-molecule detection with a simple and scalable setup. Our results open up a new path for using phonons in quantum sensing and next-generation molecular detection."

Exploring the dynamic of the effect at low temperatures, the researchers confirmed that the interference stemmed purely from phonon interactions and not electrons, marking a rare case of phonon-only quantum interference. The effect has only been observed in the particular 2D metal/silicon carbide system used in the study and is absent in regular bulk metals. This is due to the special transition pathways and surface configurations enabled by the atomically thin metal layer.

The study also explored the possibility of using other 2D metals, such as gallium or indium, to induce similar effects. By fine-tuning the chemical composition of these intercalated layers, researchers could design custom interfaces with tailored quantum properties.

"Compared to conventional sensors, our method offers high sensitivity without the need for special chemical labels or complicated device setup," said Shengxi Huang, associate professor of electrical and computer engineering and materials science and nanoengineering at Rice and corresponding author on the study. "This phonon-based approach not only advances molecular sensing but also opens up exciting possibilities in energy harvesting, thermal management and quantum technologies, where controlling vibrations is key."

The research was supported by the National Science Foundation (2011839, 2246564, 1943895, 2230400), Air Force Office of Scientific Research (FA9550-22-1-0408), Welch Foundation (C-2144) and the University of North Texas.

Scientists just made vibrations so precise they can spot a single molecule | ScienceDaily

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

There is nothing so disastrous as a rational investment policy in an irrational world.

John Maynard Keynes