Baltic
Dry Index. 2025 +08 Brent Crude 67.48
Spot
Gold 3448 U S 2
Year Yield 3.59 -0.03
US
Federal Debt. 37.295 trillion
US
GDP 30.233 trillion
Former Treasury secretary Janet Yellen pulled
no punches in her op-ed in the FT, stating that Trump’s action
against Cook “threatens to end the independence of the Federal Reserve — and
with it, the credibility of the US’s monetary policy both at home and abroad”.
Little
need for my input this weekend, except to say tariffs uncertainty, plus the end
of the US de minimis customs exemption, makes for a very uncertain global
economy September – December.
Trump
Tariffs Ruled Illegal by Federal Appeals Court
August
29, 2025 at 10:59 PM GMT+1
In
a dramatic ruling on the Friday afternoon before Labor Day weekend, most of
President Donald Trump’s global tariffs were declared illegal by a US appeals court that found
he exceeded his authority in imposing them.
A
panel of judges in Washington upheld an earlier ruling by the Court of
International Trade that Trump wrongfully invoked an emergency law to issue the
levies. But the appellate judges sent the case back to the lower court to
determine if it applied to everyone affected by tariffs or just the parties
involved in the case.
In
the meantime, the levies were allowed to remain in place as the litigation
proceeds. The case will almost certainly end up before the US Supreme Court.
What
You Need to Know Today
US
consumers are increasingly fearful of the looming consequences of Trump’s
tariff campaign as well as rising inflation and the overall outlook for the
economy. A University of Michigan survey released Friday indicated
consumers expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.8% over the next
year, up from 4.5% last month. They saw costs rising at an annual rate of
3.5% over the next five to 10 years.
The
figures underscore continuing consumer anxiety about employment prospects and
business conditions. About 63% of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the
year ahead, an increase from the prior month and well above the same month in
2024.
The
Trump administration meanwhile issued more upbeat data for a second day in a row. According to the Bureau of
Economic Analysis, a division of the US Department of Commerce, consumer spending remained resilient in July, rising
by the most in four months.
Economists
anticipate higher goods prices to put pressure on inflation in coming months.
For now, the US continues to spend, according to the government, but it’s
unclear how long that momentum will last amid rising prices and a weakening job market.
----Questions
about whether Trump had cause to try to push out Federal Reserve
Governor Lisa Cook or whether he is seeking to fire the first Black woman ever
appointed to the post on a pretext dominated a court hearing Friday. US District Judge Jia
Cobb peppered lawyers for Cook and Trump for about two hours before ending the
proceeding without ruling on Cook’s request for a temporary order blocking
Trump’s effort to oust her. The judge didn’t indicate which way she is leaning
in what’s likely to be a landmark case that could determine the future of Fed
independence.
The
president has repeatedly attacked the central bank for not lowering interest
rates and has threatened to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. His aides have
accused Cook, who hasn’t been charged with a crime, of mortgage fraud. (Trump himself has been convicted of fraud in New York
state court.) Her lawyer, Abbe Lowell, said such allegations have become a
“weapon of choice” for Trump as he seeks to remove officials whom he views as
obstacles to his agenda. Trump’s motive, he argued, signaled he didn’t have the
necessary cause to fire Cook.
An
attorney for Trump argued Cook’s failure to explain alleged mortgage
discrepancies suggests she did something wrong and supports Trump’s right to
remove her for cause. As part of her lawsuit, Cook suggested that an
unintentional “clerical error” may have been behind the mortgage filling.
Trump
Tariffs Ruled Illegal by Federal Appeals Court: Evening Briefing - Bloomberg
Stocks
close lower, but S&P 500 notches its 4th winning month in a row
Updated
Fri, Aug 29 2025 4:19 PM EDT
Stocks
fell on Friday as investors took some money off the table into a long weekend
following a new S&P 500 record
and solid Nvidia earnings
this week. New inflation data showed rising prices was still a risk heading
into the new month.
The
S&P 500 ended the day 0.64% lower at 6,460.26, but still scored its fourth
winning month in a row. The Nasdaq
Composite shed 1.15% to finish at 21,455.55, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost
92.02 points, or 0.20%, to settle at 45,544.88.
Core
PCE, a key inflation measure watched by the Federal Reserve which excludes the
costs of food and energy, increased
2.9% in July, in-line with expectations but an acceleration from the prior
month and the highest level since February.
“The
Fed opened the door to rate cuts, but the size of that opening is going to
depend on whether labor-market weakness continues to look like a bigger risk
than rising inflation,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a statement. “Today’s in-line PCE Price
Index will keep the focus on the jobs market. For now, the odds still favor a
September cut.”
Given
that equities were already under pressure heading into the PCE print, Baird’s
Ross Mayfield believes the day’s pullback has more to do with the market’s
recent performance. Stocks are coming off a winning session, with the S&P
500 closing above the 6,500 mark for the first time Thursday.
“The
PCE number was fine, but there’s a bit of an earnings overhang and maybe just a
little profit-taking after hitting an all-time high,” the firm’s investment
strategist said in an interview with CNBC.
Even
with Friday’s losses, the indexes closed out August with solid gains. The
30-stock Dow logged a more than 3% advance in August, while the S&P 500
tallied a nearly 2% advance. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has seen an August gain of
1.6%.
The
market hit new highs into a long weekend and month that has historically been
poor for major benchmarks. September was the biggest losing month for the
S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq since 1950, according to The Stock Trader’s
Almanac, and the S&P 500 in particular has seen especially weak September
performances over
the last 10 years, per Bespoke. The broad market index averages a 0.7%
decline for the month.
Stock
market news for Aug. 29, 2025
Retail
panic: What the end of the ‘de minimis’ exemption means for brands across the
globe
Published
Fri, Aug 29 2025 8:31 AM EDT Updated Fri, Aug 29 2025 11:02 AM EDT
The
de minimis exemption, an obscure trade law provision that has simultaneously
fueled and eroded businesses across the globe, officially came to an end on
Friday following an executive order by President Donald Trump.
For
nearly a decade, shipments valued under $800 were allowed to enter the country
virtually duty-free and with less oversight. Now, those shipments from the
likes of Tapestry, Lululemon and just about any
other retailer with an online presence will
be tariffed and processed in the same way that larger packages are
handled.
In
May, Trump ended the exemption for goods
coming from China and Hong Kong, and on July 30 he expanded the
rollback to all countries, calling it a “catastrophic loophole” that’s been
used to evade tariffs and get “unsafe or below-market” products into the
U.S.
The
de minimis exemption had previously been slated to end in July 2027 as part of
sweeping legislation passed by Congress, but Trump’s executive order eliminated
the provision much
sooner, giving businesses, customs officials and postal services less time
to prepare.
“The
ending of that under-$800-per-person-per-day rule, from a global perspective,
is about to probably cause a bit of pandemonium,” said Lynlee Brown, a partner
in the global trade division at accounting firm EY. “There’s a financial
implication, there’s an operational implication, and then there’s pure
compliance, right? Like, these have all been informal entries. No one’s really
looked at them.”
Already,
the sudden change has snarled supply chains from France to Singapore and led
post offices across the world to temporarily
suspend shipments to the U.S. so they can ensure their systems are
updated and able to comply with the new regulations.
It’s
forced businesses both large and small to rethink not just their supply chains,
but their overall business models, because of the impact the change could have
on their bottom lines – setting off a panic in boardrooms across the country,
logistics experts said.
“Obviously
it’s a big change for operating models for companies, not just the Sheins and
the Temus, but for companies that have historically had e-com and
brick-and-mortar stores,” Brown said.
The
change also means consumers, already are under pressure from persistent
inflation and high interest rates, could now see even
higher prices on a wide range of goods, from Colombian bathing suits
to specialty ramen subscription boxes shipped straight from Japan.
The
end of de minimis could
cost U.S. consumers at least $10.9 billion, or $136 per family, according
to a 2025 paper by Pablo Fajgelbaum and Amit Khandelwal for the
National Bureau of Economic Research. The research found low-income and
minority consumers would feel the biggest impact as they rely more on the
cheaper, imported purchases.
Tailoring
supply chains
Popularized
by Chinese e-tailers Shein and Temu, use of the de minimis exemption has
exploded in the last decade, ballooning from 134 million shipments in 2015 to
more than 1.36 billion in 2024. Before the recent change to limit its use, U.S.
Customs and Border Protection said it was processing more than 4 million de
minimis shipments into the country each day.
A 2023
House report found more than 60% of de minimis shipments in 2021 came
from China, but because the packages require less information than larger
containers, very little information is known about their origins and the types
of goods they contain. That opacity is one of the key reasons why both former
President Joe Biden and Trump sought to curtail or end the exemption.
More
Retail
panic: 'De minimis' exemption ends globally
In other news, the
UK’s extreme leftwing socialist government is plotting new ways of how to hurt the UK’s poorest housing
renters even more than they already have. Socialism.
“If
socialists understood economics, they wouldn't be socialists.”
Friedrich Hayek
Reeves
warned that ‘punitive’ tax hikes on landlords will choke rental sector
Thursday 28 August 2025 11:33 am
Property experts have warned that higher taxes on
landlords’ rental incomes will have ‘severe’ unintended consequences for
the rental sector and the
broader housing market.
The Chancellor is reportedly examining proposals for applying national insurance (NI) to rental income in the hope
of raising £2bn.
Officials are drawing up options for tax rises in an
attempt to avoid breaking the “red lines” set by Reeves before the
general election, where she promised to not raise taxes for ‘working people’,
according to The Times.
Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight
Frank, said that while the move “won’t lose the government many votes”, it will
“invariably end up hurting tenants”.
“With landlords already selling up ahead of the
Renters’ Rights Bill and tougher green regulations, another disincentive would
reduce supply further and put upwards pressure on rents.”
“Those that stay may pass on the extra costs in
other ways. Governments need to fully appreciate that when you tax an activity,
you get less of it,” he said.
Private, smaller landlords – i.e. those who do not
funnel their activity through a corporate structure – are under pressure from all sides: inflation, high interest rates and new regulations all impact small
landlords more than larger ones.
‘Political
point-scoring rather than sound housing policy’
Multiple experts said that as smaller landlords get
ever-more squeezed, they will pull up stakes or restructure.
“We’re already seeing supply pressures in many
areas, pushing costs onto tenants. A policy with such serious unintended
consequences deserves more scrutiny,” Marc von Grundherr, director at Benham
& Reeves, said.
According to Savills, up to one million additional
homes will be required to accommodate growing rental demand by 2031,
particularly from young families, across England and Wales.
“Further punitive tax hikes on the rental sector
will lead only to rents going up, hitting the very households the government
wants to protect,” Ben Beadle, chief executive of the National Residential
Landlords Association (NRLA), said.
Sam Humphreys, Head of M&A at Dwelly, said: “The
reality is that many landlords already operate on fine margins, and measures
like this could be the tipping point that drives them out of the sector
altogether.
“Once stock is lost, it is incredibly difficult to
rebuild, and the people who pay the price are tenants facing rising rents and
fewer housing choices.
“If the government wants to improve affordability,
it should be working to increase supply – not choking it further with punitive
taxation,” Humphreys added.
Rents
will ‘invariably’ rise
Earlier this year, a Handelsbanken survey found
that around a third of small landlords were already planning to leave the
sector, with 88 per cent of private landlords reporting no confidence
in the current private rental sector.
If landlords do leave the sector because of the
introduction of NI, the imbalance between supply and demand will “invariably”
push rents higher, Shaun Moore, tax and financial planning expert at Quilter,
said.
“Similarly, the addition of NI would almost
certainly be passed on to renters through higher rents, compounding the
problem,” he said.
Moore added that the practice of holding properties
within a limited company structure will “skyrocket” as landlords look for ways
to mitigate the impact of these changes.
“Ironically, this could mean the government’s
expected revenue boost is far smaller than anticipated, while the unintended
consequences for renters and the broader housing market could be severe.”
Reeves warned that 'punitive' tax hikes on landlords will choke rental
sector
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
US
PCE price index data for July throws a surprise for the markets?
The United States
Bureau of Economic Analysis has published the Personal Consumption Expenditures
Price Index data for July.
Written by Sunil Dhawan August 29,
2025 18:07 IST
The United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
has published the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for
July.
The PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred
inflation measure, is closely monitored by market participants as it could
potentially impact policy outlook.
PCE
Price Index for July
From the preceding month, the PCE price index for
July increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index
increased 0.3 percent. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index
for July increased 2.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index
increased 2.9 percent from one year ago.
In July 2025, the US PCE price index climbed 0.2%
month over month, down from 0.3% in June, as expected. Core PCE, excluding food
and energy, rose 0.3%, mirroring the previous month and estimates. Annually,
headline PCE inflation remained stable at 2.6%, while core PCE increased to
2.9% from 2.8%, the highest level in five months, as forecast.
Rate
Cut Expectations
US CPI Data in July was steady at 2.7% while the
core CPI data accelerated to 3.1% and rose the most in 6 months. US inflation
may not yet be under full control, but with the federal funds rate currently at
4.25%-4.5%, markets anticipate two 25-basis-point rate cuts, one each in
September and December, followed by quarterly decreases through 2026.
Powell may consider a rate cut due to concerning job
data, including a 4.2% unemployment rate and over 250,000 job losses in May and
June.
The FOMC meeting on September 16-17 will be
influenced by hard economic data, including the Employment Situation for August
on September 5 and the US CPI data on September 11.
US stock market indices are near all-time highs as
investors continue to process the most recent data from AI chip major Nvidia
and numerous other earnings reports. Many analysts have once again started
asking if the US stock market is in a bubble.
German inflation rises to hotter-than-expected 2.1%
in August
Published Fri, Aug 29 2025 8:05 AM EDT
German inflation rose by a higher-than-expected
2.1% in August, preliminary data from statistics office Destatis showed Friday.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected the
headline figure, which is harmonized for comparability across the euro zone, to
come in at 2%. Inflation had risen by a cooler-than-expected 1.8%
in July.
Markets and economists are closely watching
inflation figures around the world to assess the impact of U.S. President
Donald Trump's tariff policies. Various sectoral levies, as well as so-called
reciprocal duties, have been in effect in recent months.
The U.S. and EU struck a trade agreement in July, including a
15% tariff rate on many EU goods exported to the U.S. Fresh details released earlier this month suggested that
this blanket rate will also be applied to some hotly contested sectors like
pharmaceuticals — but crucial questions still remain unanswered, leaving businesses on edge.
The tariffs are widely expected to drive prices
higher in the U.S., but their impact on costs elsewhere is less clear.
There have also been widespread concerns about
tariffs and related economic uncertainty weighing on economic growth. Germany's
economy, the largest in the EU, has long been hovering near the flatline. The
country's gross domestic product expanded by 0.3% in the first quarter, before
contracting by 0.3% in the following period according to the latest data from
Destatis.
Technology
Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
The world's largest sand battery just went live in Finland
By Abhimanyu Ghoshal August 27, 2025
Finland has inaugurated an industrial-scale sand battery this week
in the southern town of Pornainen, where it'll take over heating duties from an
old woodchip power plant for the municipality. It's set to reduce carbon
emissions from the local heating network by as much as 70%, and is the largest
one of its kind in the world.
Developed by Finnish Firm Polar Night Energy – which also built
the world's first commercial sand battery a few years ago – this battery is
about 42 ft (13 m) tall and 50 ft (15 m) wide. It serves as a storage medium
for up to 100 MWh, with a round trip efficiency of 90%. That makes it about 10
times larger than the first-ever sand battery, and capable of storing enough
heat for the whole town to use for a week.
This Thermal Energy Storage (TES) reservoir is a critical tool for
places like Finland, which intermittently generate vast quantities of wind and
solar electricity, but also face variations in energy demand and supply. The
sand battery charges up when electricity is cheaply available and can hold a
charge for months at a time, helping balance the energy grid during periods of
high demand. You can see the battery being put together in Pornainen, in the
video below.
---- Here's how it works: Excess
electricity from renewable sources is used to heat the sand contained in a
large insulated silo through a closed-loop air pipe system, to temperatures of
up to 1,112 ºF (600 ºC). The sand gets hot and stays hot for a long time,
acting as a battery.
Later, cool air is blown through the battery's pipes, absorbing
heat from the sand as it moves through the system. This heated air – which can
reach temperatures of 752 ºF (400 ºC) – can then convert water into steam for
industrial processes, or it can heat water for district heating using a device
called a heat exchanger.
So in case you were wondering: no, this battery doesn't store and
provide electricity directly. Polar Night says it's working on a
system to convert this TES' stored heat into electricity; it'll likely involve
the use of steam turbines.
This battery has actually been in operation since June, and the
company says it's already exceeded its efficiency targets in the early days of
optimizing its functions. Many of Pornainen's buildings, including its town
hall, are currently heated by the new TES.
In the coming years, it'll play a major role in helping the town
achieve carbon neutrality – and it might inspire more municipalities in regions
with similar climate and energy sources to adopt these giant batteries.
Finland unveils
world's largest sand battery for heating
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Exponent
Calculator
Enter
values into any two of the input fields to solve for the third.
This
weekend’s music diversion. More from the oboe king. More next week too. Approx. 10 minutes.
Tomaso Albinoni - Concerto for Two Oboes Op.
9, No. 6
Tomaso Albinoni -
Concerto for Two Oboes Op. 9, No. 6
Next, more of Trump’s tariffs mischief. Approx.
9 minutes.
Modi's
Japan Deal SHOCKER Defies Trump Tariffs on India
Modi's Japan Deal
SHOCKER Defies Trump Tariffs on India
Finally,
more EV reality. Approx. 10 minutes.
Shipping
Companies Are Refusing Electric Vehicles
Shipping Companies
Are Refusing Electric Vehicles - YouTube
Like almost everyone who uses
e-mail, I receive a ton of spam every day. Much of it offers to help me get out
of debt or get rich quick. It would be funny if it weren't so irritating.
Bill Gates
