Tuesday, 30 April 2024

Fed Day One. Stocks Dress Up Tuesday. China Wobbles.

Baltic Dry Index. 1684 -37     Brent Crude  88.30

Spot Gold 2326          US 2 Year Yield 4.96 +0.07

The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones.

John Maynard Keynes.

It is the last trading day of the month once again, and time for the stock casino professional money managers to dress up stocks and the stock indexes, for those all important money manager month-end bonuses.

With the AI bubble and the “magnificent seven” US technology stocks dominant, it’s like shooting fish in a barrel for Wall Street’s money manager sharks.

Shame about the main stream economy slowing and suffering rising inflation once again, but US and other central banksters long ago wrote off the main stream economy and those jerks foolish enough to still try making a living there.

Really, get with the 21st century, borrow and invest in the AI debt fuelled stock bubbles, central bankster economy. Why work for a living when you can live on Easy Street front running the central bankster, debt fuelled gambling economy?


Asia markets mostly rise, tracking Wall Street gains; China factory activity expands at a slower pace

UPDATED TUE, APR 30 2024 10:00 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets largely rose on Tuesday, tracking Wall Street moves, with investors awaiting China manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for April.

Japan’s top currency diplomat Masato Kanda reportedly declined to comment on whether the finance ministry had intervened to prop up yen after it fell to a record low on Monday.

The currency weakened to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar yesterday at 160.03, before strengthening sharply to trade around the 155 level.

The Wall Street Journal, meanwhile, reported that Japan had intervened to support the yen by selling U.S. dollars and buying yen.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.4% as traders returned from a public holiday, while the broad-based Topix was up nearly 2%.

Japan’s retail sales for March rose at slower-than-expected pace in March, while unemployment came in slightly above expectations.

Data from China showed manufacturing activity expanded at a slower pace in April. The official purchasing managers’ index came in at 50.4 compared to 50.8 in March. The reading, however, beat Reuters estimates of 50.3.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 0.2%, while China’s CSI 300 dipped 0.12%.

South Korea’s Kospi was 0.59% higher, while the small-cap Kosdaq rose 0.17%. the country’s factory output fell in March by the most in 15 months, down 3.2% compared to a 0.6% gain expected by a Reuters poll of economists.

The Australian S&P/ASX 200 was 0.27% up.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes closed higher Monday, lifted by Tesla, while traders geared up for a week dominated by corporate earnings and a Federal Reserve meeting.

Tesla jumped more than 15%, providing upward momentum to the market after clearing a key hurdle for full self-driving technology in China.

The S&P 500 rose 0.32%, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.35%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.38%.

Asia markets: China manufacturing PMI, yen intervention (cnbc.com)


European markets head for lackluster open ahead of euro zone inflation, GDP data

UPDATED TUE, APR 30 2024 12:42 AM EDT

European markets are heading for a lackluster open Tuesday ahead of a busy day of earnings and major data releases in the region.

Preliminary euro zone inflation data for April and first-quarter gross domestic product figures for the single currency area are due Tuesday, while earnings come from AF-KLM, Stellantis, Capgemini, Mercedes, VW, Lufthansa, Santander, Caixabank, OMV, HSBC, Glencore and Whitbread, among others.

Overnight, Asia-Pacific markets largely rose on Tuesday, tracking Wall Street moves, with investors awaiting China manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for April.

Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures were little changed Monday night after a positive start to the week, as investors brace for megacap earnings, the latest Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday, and a jobs report.

The central bank is broadly anticipated to keep interest rates steady, but traders will be looking to see if Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting comments are more hawkish after the recent spate of hotter inflation reports.

European markets live updates: euro zone inflation, GDP and earnings (cnbc.com)

China's slow April factory, services activity dents economic momentum

By Ellen Zhang and Ryan Woo 

BEIJING, April 30 (Reuters) - China's manufacturing and services activity both expanded at a slower pace in April, official surveys showed on Tuesday, suggesting some loss of momentum for the world's second-biggest economy at the start of the second quarter.

The cooling activity from sizable gains made in March highlights erratic demand growth and underlines the challenges facing policymakers even though a solid first quarter GDP outturn has reduced some of the urgency to ramp up stimulus measures.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to 50.4 in April from 50.8 in March, above the 50-mark separating growth from contraction and just ahead of a median forecast of 50.3 in a Reuters poll.

New export orders grew at a much slower rate, while employment continued to shrink, the NBS data showed.

The services sub-index under the NBS non-manufacturing survey grew at the slowest pace since January, coming in at 50.3 in April compared with 52.4 in March.

"Indicators of business activity in the catering, capital market services and property industries were in contraction," the NBS said in a statement.

Another private Caixin factory survey, also released on Tuesday, showed manufacturing activity grew more quickly as new export orders rose.

Analysts say the divergence between the Caixin PMI and the official PMI highlights differences in their geographic and sector coverage.

"Both of the manufacturing and services PMI indexes are near the line of 50, reflecting that the current momentum of economic expansion is mild," said Zhou Maohua, a macroeconomic researcher at China Everbright Bank.

Investors expect Chinese authorities to launch more stimulus to support the economy and are waiting for clues from the monthly Politburo meeting, which is expected to focus on economic affairs.

With the U.S. Federal Reserve and other developed economies in no hurry to cut interest rates, China may face a longer period of tepid external demand. Adding to the challenges, Beijing continues to contend with trade barriers as the U.S. accuses China of exporting its industrial overcapacity.

Officials this year underscored the need for economic development based on innovation in advanced sectors.

However, analysts said the country's immediate problem centres around a prolonged property downturn and ballooning local government debt, which have dented household and investor confidence in a blow to the economic outlook.

Several rounds of support measures aimed at turning around the fortunes of the real estate sector have failed to spur a substantial recovery, which is a major reason why China observers remain sceptical about a near-term full-blown economic revival.

More

China's slow April factory, services activity dents economic momentum | Reuters

Finally, more EV disaster at Hertz. Approx. 4 minutes.

Hertz EV Rental DISASTER just gets WORSE and WORSE! | MGUY Australia

Hertz EV Rental DISASTER just gets WORSE and WORSE! | MGUY Australia (youtube.com)

 

China crash involving Huawei-backed Aito electric vehicle kills three

By Reuters  

BEIJING, April 29 (Reuters) - Three people, including a two-year-old boy, died after a Huawei-backed Aito M7 SUV burst into flames following a collision with a truck on a highway in the Chinese city of Yuncheng in the northern province of Shanxi, state media said.

Aito Automobile, a new energy vehicle brand launched in 2022, is investigating the accident along with traffic police, the company said on its WeChat and Weibo social media accounts on Sunday.

Aito said data from the vehicle showed it was operating at a speed of 115 kph (71 mph) at the time of Friday's accident, adding that the airbag opened normally and readings from the battery pack were normal.

The company said it was co-operating with traffic police to provide all necessary data to reconstruct the cause of the accident, and support the families involved.

Video on social media showed bystanders trying to break the window and door of the SUV as it was lodged under the truck with the front of the vehicle engulfed in flames.

The Aito M7, made by Seres Group (601127.SS), opens new tab in partnership with Huawei, with Huawei providing technology for the vehicle and help with marketing.

Huawei has said several times it is a components provider rather than a manufacturer of cars.

China crash involving Huawei-backed Aito electric vehicle kills three | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

The Fed will only cut rates when it's panicking over a recession and a market crash, Black Swan investor says

April 28, 2024

Rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may not be the boon investors are hoping for. That's because the Fed is only likely to ease monetary policy when the economy is slammed with a recession and the market is flailing, according to famous "Black Swan" investor Mark Spitznagel.

In a recent interview with Reuters, the Universa Investments CIO cast a stark warning about stocks and the economy.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors are expecting one to two cuts to come in 2024, which are expected to be bullish for stocks. 

But the only way the Fed will cut rates is if central bankers see a significant weakening in the economy — meaning the US could see a downturn and a market plunge before interest rates come down, Spitznagel warned.

"Be careful what you wish for," Spitznagel told Reuters. "People think it's a good thing the Federal Reserve is dovish, and they're going to cut interest rates … but they're going to cut interest rates when it's clear the economy is turning into a recession, and they will be cutting interest rates in a panicked fashion when this market is crashing."

Most economists think the US is likely to avoid a recession this year, according to a survey conducted by the National Association of Business Economics. But high rates still threaten to spark a downturn by tightening financial conditions for businesses and households. The potential for an economic correction is especially stark when considering the huge amount of debt taken out over the last decade, when interest rates were ultra-low, Spitznagel said.

"This economy is built on low interest rates," he said. "There are lag effects when you reset interest rates like we had."

Spitznagel's hedge fund is known for its ultra-bearish takes on the market, counting "The Black Swan" author Nassim Taleb among its advisors. Both commentators have cast stark warnings for stocks and the economy over the past year, with Spitznagel in particular warning of one of the largest debt bubbles in history, which could spark the worst stock market collapse since 1929.

Universa's investment strategy is poised to gain on seemingly unpredictable Black Swan events. Famously, the fund pulled a 4,144% return on its investments during the pandemic stock crash. 

Most forecasters on Wall Street share a cautiously optimistic view of both stocks and the economy for the rest of this year, assuming that inflation continues to trend lower while the economy continues to grow. 38% of investors said they were bullish on stocks over the next six months, according to the AAII's latest Investor Sentiment Survey.

The Fed will only cut rates when it's panicking over a recession and a market crash, Black Swan investor says (msn.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

AstraZeneca admits for first time in court documents its Covid vaccine can cause rare side effect

April 28, 2024

AstraZeneca has admitted for the first time in court documents that its Covid vaccine can cause a rare side effect, in an apparent about-turn that could pave the way for a multi-million pound legal payout.

The pharmaceutical giant is being sued in a class action over claims that its vaccine, developed with the University of Oxford, caused death and serious injury in dozens of cases.

Lawyers argue the vaccine produced a side effect which has had a devastating effect on a small number of families.

The first case was lodged last year by Jamie Scott, a father of two, who was left with a permanent brain injury after developing a blood clot and a bleed on the brain that has prevented him from working after he received the vaccine in April 2021. The hospital called his wife three times to tell her that her husband was going to die.

AstraZeneca is contesting the claims but has accepted, in a legal document submitted to the High Court in February, that its Covid vaccine “can, in very rare cases, cause TTS”.

TTS – which stands for Thrombosis with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome – causes people to have blood clots and a low blood platelet count.

Fifty-one cases have been lodged in the High Court, with victims and grieving relatives seeking damages estimated to be worth up to £100 million.

AstraZeneca’s admission – made in a legal defence to Mr Scott’s High Court claim – follows intense legal wrangling. It could lead to payouts if the drug firm accepts that the vaccine was the cause of serious illness and death in specific legal cases. The Government has pledged to underwrite AstraZeneca’s legal bills.

In a letter of response sent in May 2023, AstraZeneca told lawyers for Mr Scott that “we do not accept that TTS is caused by the vaccine at a generic level”.

But in the legal document submitted to the High Court in February, AstraZeneca said: “It is admitted that the AZ vaccine can, in very rare cases, cause TTS. The causal mechanism is not known. 

More

AstraZeneca admits for first time in court documents its Covid vaccine can cause rare side effect (msn.com)

Covid caused a ‘massive spike’ in yacht sales — now some of those boats are back on the market

Some pandemic-era yacht owners are headed back for dry land.

The pandemic spurred a “massive spike” in yacht sales, said Richard Allen, chief operating officer of the Hong Kong-based yachting company Simpson Marine.

“We’ve seen a lot of those people, that had their boats for two years, sort of now wanting to travel,” he told CNBC. “In the last probably few months, talking with other people in the industry, we’ve seen an increase in brokerage activity of … boats being sold.”

That was expected, said Paolo Casani, CEO of the Monaco-based yachting company Camper & Nicholsons.

“We sold, as an industry worldwide, more than the double the yachts [in 2021] than 2019,” he told CNBC. When this happens, “they go to the market starting from a couple of years later.”

Prices in the pre-owned market

Enthusiasm for yachting remains high, even if sales have fallen since 2021, said Casani.

“The industry is going back to 2019,” he said. “And we have to distinguish between brokerage and new builds, because the demand for new builds is still quite high.”

With more yachts hitting the brokerage market, prices are down, albeit slightly, from pandemic-era highs, he said.

“Prices are still quite high,” he said. “There is still a gap between the demand and the offer ... but we do believe that there will be still a reduction in the course of 2024.”

More

A rise in pre-owned yachts for sale: Some Covid purchasers are selling (cnbc.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Beyond Graphene: A New World of 2D Materials Is Opening Up

By  

Materials that are incredibly thin, only a few atoms thick, exhibit unique properties that make them appealing for energy storage, catalysis, and water purification. Researchers at Linköping University, Sweden, have now developed a method that enables the synthesis of hundreds of new 2D materials. Their study has been published in the journal Science.

Since the discovery of graphene, the field of research in extremely thin materials, so-called 2D materials, has increased exponentially. The reason is that 2D materials have a large surface area in relation to their volume or weight. This gives rise to a range of physical phenomena and distinctive properties, such as good conductivity, high strength or heat resistance, making 2D materials of interest both within fundamental research and applications.

“In a film that’s only a millimeter thin, there can be millions of layers of the material. Between the layers, there can be a lot of chemical reactions and thanks to this, 2D materials can be used for energy storage or for generating fuels, for example,” says Johanna Rosén, professor in Materials physics at Linköping University.

The MXenes Family and New Theoretical Models

The largest family of 2D materials is called MXenes. MXenes are created from a three-dimensional parent material called a MAX phase. It consists of three different elements: M is a transition metal, A is an (A-group) element, and X is carbon or nitrogen. By removing the A element with acids (exfoliation), a two-dimensional material is created. Until now, MXenes has been the only material family created in this way.

The Linköping researchers have introduced a theoretical method for predicting other three-dimensional materials that may be suitable for conversion into 2D materials. They have also proved that the theoretical model is consistent with reality.

To succeed, the researchers used a three-step process. In the first step, they developed a theoretical model to predict which parent materials would be suitable. Using large-scale calculations at the National Supercomputer Centre, the researchers were able to identify 119 promising 3D materials from a database and a selection consisting of 66,643 materials.

The next step was to try to create the material in the lab.

More

Beyond Graphene: A New World of 2D Materials Is Opening Up (scitechdaily.com)

Finally, our latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

The function of entrepreneurs is to reform or revolutionize the pattern of production by exploiting an invention or, more generally, an untried technological possibility for producing a new commodity or producing an old one in a new way, by opening up a new source of supply of materials or a new outlet for products, by reorganizing an industry and so on.

Joseph A. Schumpeter. 

No comments:

Post a Comment