Baltic
Dry Index. 1594 -34
Brent Crude 90.56
Spot Gold 2346 US 2 Year Yield 4.78 +0.05
The salary of the chief executive of a large corporation is not a market award for achievement. It is frequently in the nature of a warm personal gesture by the individual to himself.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
In the stock casinos, more worry and wait. Worry that the Middle East is just one giant error from a much wider war that might send the price of crude oil soaring. Waiting on tomorrow’s latest US consumer inflation figures.
Never has America’s global leadership role
looked more irrelevant and toothless paper tigerish. Something not lost in
capitals all around planet Earth.
Asia markets
mixed ahead of consumer confidence data from Japan; investors await U.S.
inflation data
UPDATED TUE, APR 9 2024 11:25 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Tuesday as
investors awaited consumer confidence data from Japan, with focus also on U.S.
inflation numbers to assess the Federal Reserve’s rate cut path.
Australia’s
business conditions and confidence were little changed in March, according to a
survey by the National Australian Bank. Business conditions fell one point to
+9, while business confidence rose one point to +1, remaining below average.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed
0.49%, while the broad-based Topix gained 0.33%.
South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.24%,
reversing gains made earlier in the day, while the small-cap Kosdaq was down
0.3%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was
0.77% up, while the mainland Chinese CSI300 was 0.43% lower.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was
up 0.48%, rebounding from Monday’s losses.
Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes
remained largely range bound, with investors awaiting the consumer price index
report out on Wednesday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched
lower by 0.03%, while the S&P 500 ticked
down by 0.04%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite closed
marginally higher by 0.03%.
Treasury yields rose, with the
rate on the benchmark 10-year Treasury
note up
about 4 basis points to 4.42%.
Asia
markets: U.S. Treasury yields rise; Australia, Japan data on tap (cnbc.com)
Asia stocks rise;
metals fly on manufacturing bets
By Tom Westbrook
April
9, 2024 3:25 AM GMT+1
SINGAPORE, April 9 (Reuters)
- Industrial metals prices extended their gains on Tuesday with expectations of
a worldwide manufacturing rebound, while Asian shares crept up a little more
cautiously ahead of this week's U.S. inflation data and a crucial European
Central Bank meeting.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.2%. Japan's Nikkei (.N225)rose 0.6%.
Shanghai copper futures were up 1% at a two-year high and have
gained more than 10% in a month. Zinc made a five-month high in Shanghai, where
Aluminium made a 22-month peak on Monday.
Even iron ore , battered by
China's property downturn, steadied above $100 a tonne in Singapore.
"It's pretty much a China bet," said Vishnu Varathan,
head of economics at Mizuho Bank in Singapore.
"It's coincided with a global manufacturing bottoming, and
I think that plays well into China's industrial recovery. That aspect of it is
a broader-based story for metals."
On Monday, data showed German industrial production rising
more than expected in February.
Last week, data showed U.S. manufacturing growing for
the first time in one-and-a-half years. China's manufacturing activity expanded
for the first time in six months in March.
Precious metals have been soaring, too, with gold hovering just
below a record high of $2,353 hit on Monday. Spot gold has risen nearly 14%
this year.
Silver hit its highest since mid-2021 on Monday and platinum has
also shot higher. Brent crude is below recent peaks but clinging above $90 a
barrel at $90.62.
More
Asia stocks rise; metals fly on manufacturing bets | Reuters
Stock futures are
little changed as investors await March inflation data: Live updates
UPDATED TUE, APR 9 2024 7:34 PM EDT
Stock
futures were little changed on Monday, as investors looked ahead for
forthcoming inflation data.
Futures tied to the S&P 500 hovered
near the flatline. Nasdaq 100 futures advanced
nearly 0.1%, while Dow Jones
Industrial Average futures gained
16 points, or 0.04%.
Stocks ended Monday’s trading
near the flatline, with the S&P 500 closing
with a marginal decline of 0.04% and the 30-stock Dow losing 0.03%. The Nasdaq Composite eked
out a small gain of 0.03%.
During the session, the 10-year
Treasury yield topped 4.4% as investors awaited Wednesday’s consumer price
index report for more insight into how the Federal Reserve’s rate policy has
been affecting inflation. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect inflation to
have increased 0.3% in March.
“If [CPI] is a surprise and that
continues to reprice inflation expectations higher, I think that’s where it
becomes dangerous for stocks,” iCapital chief investment strategist Anastasia
Amoroso told CNBC’s “Closing
Bell” on Monday.
Amoroso added that the rise in
bond yields has been triggered by an improving growth outlook, underpinned by a
stronger-than-expected jobs report from Friday. However, she cautioned that a
continued rise in the 10-year yield could signal cause for concern for the
broader market.
“If the moves are somewhat
contained here I think we’re fine, despite the backup, but obviously if you
have anything closer to a breakout to 4.8%, I think we’d have to worry,” she
said.
In the way of economic data, the
National Federation of Independent Business will issue its small business
survey results on Tuesday. In addition to Wednesday’s release of the CPI, the
Federal Reserve’s minutes from its March meeting are also slated for that day.
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In other news, world famous AI “expert” Jamie
Dimon, CEO of rent seeking, too big to fail, US mega bank JP Morgan, says AI is
the new wheel. Who knew?
Jamie Dimon says
AI may be as impactful on humanity as printing press, electricity and computers
Jamie Dimon, the veteran CEO and chairman of JPMorgan Chase,
said he was convinced that artificial intelligence will have a profound impact
on society.
In his annual letter to shareholders released
Monday, Dimon chose AI as the first topic in his update of issues facing the
biggest U.S. bank by assets — ahead of geopolitical risks, recent acquisitions
and regulatory matters.
“While we do not know the full effect or the precise rate at which AI will
change our business — or how it will affect society at large — we are
completely convinced the consequences will be extraordinary,” Dimon said.
The impact will be “possibly as
transformational as some of the major technological inventions of the past
several hundred years: Think the printing press, the steam engine, electricity,
computing and the Internet.”
Dimon’s letter, read widely in the
business world because of his status as one of the most successful leaders in
finance, hit a wide variety of topics. The CEO said that he had ongoing
concerns about inflationary pressures and reiterated his warning that the world
may be entering the riskiest era in geopolitics since World War II.
But his focus on AI, first
mentioned in Dimon’s annual letter in 2017, stood out. The technology, which
has gained in prominence since OpenAI’s ChatGPT became a viral sensation in
late 2022, can generate human-sounding responses to queries. Enthusiasm for AI
has fueled the meteoric rise of chipmaker Nvidia and
helped propel tech names to new heights.
JPMorgan now has more than 2,000 AI
and machine learning employees and data scientists working on 400 applications
including fraud detection, marketing and risk controls, Dimon said. The bank is
also exploring the use of generative AI in software engineering, customer
service and ways to boost employee productivity, he said.
The technology could ultimately touch all of the bank’s roughly 310,000
employees, assisting some workers while replacing others, and forcing the
company to retrain workers for new roles.
“Over time, we anticipate that our
use of AI has the potential to augment virtually every job, as well as impact
our workforce composition,” Dimon said. “It may reduce certain job categories
or roles, but it may create others as well.”
Here are excerpts from Dimon’s
letter:
More
Jamie Dimon annual shareholder letter highlights AI potential (cnbc.com)
Finally, in commodities/inflation news, more
bad news.
Oil prices turn
higher as Middle East ceasefire hopes wane
By Colleen Howe
April
9, 2024 4:44 AM GMT+1
BEIJING, April 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Tuesday after hopes
diminished that negotiations between Israel and Hamas would lead to a ceasefire
in Gaza and ease tension in the Middle East.
Brent crude futures rose 28 cents to $90.66 a barrel by 0330 GMT. U.S.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was 21 cents higher at $86.64.
A fresh round of Israel-Hamas ceasefire discussions in Cairo had ended a
multi-session rally on Monday, leading Brent to its first decline in five
sessions and WTI to its first in seven on the prospect that geopolitical risks
could ease.
But then Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu said on Monday an unspecified date had been set for Israel's invasion of
the Rafah enclave in Gaza, "ending the hopes that briefly gripped the
market yesterday that geopolitical tensions in the region might be
easing," Tony Sycamore, a market analyst with IG, wrote in a note.
Hamas
said early on Tuesday that Israel's proposal it received from Qatari and
Egyptian mediators did not
meet any of the demands of Palestinian factions. But Hamas said
it would study the proposal before responding to the mediators.
The market is continuing to weigh the risk
of a disruption to oil supply. An Iranian response to Israel's suspected attack
on its consulate in Syria "could drag the oil market into the conflict,
after being largely unimpacted since Hamas’s attack on Israel," ANZ
analysts said in a client note.
Tehran
said last week that it would take
revenge after an airstrike that killed two of its generals and
five military advisors in Damascus, although Israel has not claimed
responsibility for the attack.
More
Oil
prices turn higher as Middle East ceasefire hopes wane | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Inflation could hit zero within months, defying Bank
of England predictions, City economists say
April 7, 2024
City economists are
increasingly convinced that inflation is
falling more sharply than the Bank of
England expects and could even hit zero within months.
That
would open the path to much faster interest cuts than the market expects, a
boost to family finances and to the Conservative Party ahead of a looming
general election.
The experts now
think inflation will be below the Bank’s 2%
target as soon as May – and perhaps even lower than that.
Simon
French at Panmure
Gordon said: “With ongoing falls in wholesale gas prices there is now
a decent chance that UK inflation dips below 2% in the Spring.
“This
will pile on political pressure for the Bank to deliver some pre-election
interest rate cuts”
Officially, central bank chiefs have been careful to say that
inflation remains a problem.
This
week, Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell warned that the fight
against inflation is “not done” and he needed “greater confidence” to start
cutting borrowing costs.
Paul
Dales at Capital Economics, writing on the Evening Standard website, says: “When the
data for April are released in mid-May, I suspect we’ll discover that inflation
in the UK fell below the 2.0% target for the first time in three years. What’s
more, my forecast is that inflation will fall below 1.0% in the summer and by
the end of the year it may be just 0.5%. At that point, it wouldn’t take much
of a further fall for inflation to disappear completely.”
More
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
COVID-19 shatters decades of global health progress,
slashing life expectancy
April 8, 2024
A
recent study published in The Lancet presented the global burden of 288
mortality causes and life expectancy decomposition.
The
Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has been
analyzing causes of human death for over three decades, which has been used to
guide policies, monitor/assess health interventions, and reduce risk factors.
Assessing cause-specific mortality trends helps inform health policies, which
must evolve to account for changes in the global health landscape.
Mortality patterns evolve continually as some areas
succeed in reduction efforts while other causes linger in specific locations.
Further, there have been improvements in several causes of death in the past
three decades, some of which have substantially narrowed geographically and are
concentrated in smaller areas.
In the present study,
researchers presented mortality concentrations and life expectancy
decomposition. GBD 2021 provided a comprehensive set of the fatal disease
burden for 288 causes by sex and age in 204 countries and territories between
1990 and 2021, an update from previous estimates for 1990–2019. The team
calculated years of life lost (YLLs) as the product of death count for each
cause, age, sex, year, and location, as well as standard life expectancy at
each age.
Cause-specific
mortality rates were computed using the causes of death ensemble model for most
causes, and alternative strategies were applied to model causes with unusual
epidemiology or insufficient data. Diseases and injuries were classified into
four levels, with both non-fatal and fatal causes. Level 1 causes included
three broad aggregate categories: 1) non-communicable diseases (NCDs), 2)
communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases, and 3)
injuries.
Level 2
disaggregated these categories into 22 clusters, which were further
disaggregated into levels 3 and 4 causes. Life expectancy was decomposed by
cause of death, year, and location to explore cause-specific effects on life
expectancy between 1990 and 2021. Concentrated causes were estimated using the
coefficient of variation and mortality concentration (the fraction of the
population affected by 90% of deaths).
More
COVID-19 shatters decades of global health progress,
slashing life expectancy (msn.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
China shows the global EV timebomb to
come.
Clock
ticking on battery-power 'time bomb'
China Daily | Updated: 2024-04-08 08:07
The fast
development of the electric vehicle and electric bicycle industries means that
the recycling of lithium batteries is becoming an essential downstream
industry. This has led to the mushrooming of unqualified and unlicensed small
battery recycling workshops. There are even livestreaming anchors selling
"courses" on how to dismantle and assemble used lithium batteries to
help "gold rushers" realize their "financial freedom" in a
short time.
But the
recycling and dismantling of lithium batteries poses flammability and explosion
risks, and problems such as pollution may also occur during the process.
Because of this, there are strict technical requirements and regulations on it.
Yet the
workshops purchase used batteries at much higher prices than the licensed and
qualified battery recycling enterprises, as their lack of standards means their
costs, if any, are much lower. Also, because of that, they sell "new
batteries" they assemble from used batteries at much lower prices than
those of the products manufactured by legal battery companies, dominating the
market in some places. Many battery-related fires are attributable to the
products produced by these workshops.
The market for
lithium batteries is still expanding fast, and the "wave of
retirement" for batteries is yet to come, meaning that these illegal
recyclers constitute a "time bomb". Relevant watchdog departments are
obliged to deal with the issue by intensifying their crackdown on the illegal
battery recycling industry and market.
Clock ticking on battery-power 'time bomb' - Opinion -
Chinadaily.com.cn
Finally,
our latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP
compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
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