Baltic Dry Index. 1779 +49 Brent Crude 89.53
Spot Gold 2381 US 2 Year Yield 4.97 +0.04
Remember what we're looking at. Gold is a currency. It is still, by all evidence, a premier currency, that no fiat currency, including the dollar, can match.
Alan Greenspan.
In the stock casinos, a pause, a top, or worse, a rout as Israel prepares to set off a wider Middle East war leading up to World War Three?
Who knows, but is this really the time to bet on over hyped AI priced to perfection for ever and ever?
Will everyone really live happily ever after,
as the stock casinos and their punters expect?
Asia markets
mixed after Tuesday’s broad sell-off; Singapore exports plunge more than
expected
UPDATED WED, APR 17 2024 9:51 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets were mixed after Tuesday’s broad sell-off,
with traders watching trade data out of Japan and Singapore on Wednesday.
Singapore’s non-oil domestic
exports plunged 20.7% in March, marking a huge miss from the 7% decline
expected by economists polled by Reuters.
Investor sentiment, however,
might be tempered by comments from
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who said there has been “a lack of
further progress so far this year on returning to our 2% inflation goal.”
Echoing recent statements by
central bank officials, Powell indicated the current level of policy likely
will stay in place until inflation gets closer to target.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped
0.61%, reversing earlier gains, while the broad-based Topix saw a larger loss
of 1.03%. The Reuters Tankan index showed that business optimism dipped in
Japan for April.
South Korea’s Kospi extended
losses, falling 0.49% after leading losses in Asia on Tuesday, but the small
cap Kosdaq was up 0.47%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was
trading up 0.14%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was
marginally higher, while the CSI 300 on mainland China fell 0.17%.
Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose
0.17%, to snap a six-day run of losses, lifted by UnitedHealth shares.
In contrast, the S&P 500 slipped
0.21% and the Nasdaq Composite shed
0.12%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly spiked
above 5% following Powell’s remarks
Asia
markets: Japan Reuters Tankan, Japan trade, Singapore NODX (cnbc.com)
European stocks
head for positive open despite Fed comments rattling global markets
UPDATED WED, APR 17 2024 12:26 AM EDT
European
stocks are expected to open in positive territory Wednesday, despite global
markets being rattled by comments from the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Fed Chair Jerome
Powell said Tuesday that the central bank needs
to see more progress on the inflation front before it’s likely
to begin cutting rates. He said there had been “a lack of further progress so
far this year on returning to our 2% inflation goal.”
Asia-Pacific
markets were mixed after Tuesday’s broad selloff,
while U.S.
stock futures hovered near the flatline on Tuesday night after
the S&P 500 notched its third straight day of losses.
European markets live updates: stocks, news,
data and earnings (cnbc.com)
Fed Chair Powell
says there has been a ‘lack of further progress’ this year on inflation
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said
Tuesday that the U.S. economy, while otherwise strong, has not seen inflation
come back to the central bank’s goal, pointing to the further unlikelihood that
interest rate cuts are in the offing anytime soon.
Speaking to a
policy forum focused on U.S.-Canada economic relations, Powell
said that while inflation continues to make its way lower, it hasn’t moved
quickly enough, and the current state of policy should remain intact.
“More recent data shows solid growth and continued strength in the labor
market, but also a lack of further progress so far this year on returning to
our 2% inflation goal,” the Fed chief said during a panel talk.
Echoing recent statements by
central bank officials, Powell indicated the current level of policy likely
will stay in place until inflation gets closer to target.
Since July 2023, the Fed has kept
its benchmark interest rate in a target range between
5.25%-5.5%, the highest in 23 years. That was the result of 11 consecutive rate
hikes that began in March 2022.
“The recent data have clearly not
given us greater confidence, and instead indicate that it’s likely to take
longer than expected to achieve that confidence,” he said. “That said, we think
policy is well positioned to handle the risks that we face.”
Powell added that until inflation
shows more progress, “We can maintain the current level of restriction for as
long as needed.”
The comments follow inflation data through the first three months of 2024
that has been higher than expected. A consumer
price index reading for March, released last week, showed inflation
running at a 3.5% annual rate — well off the peak around 9% in mid-2022 but
drifting higher since October 2023.
Treasury yields rose as Powell
spoke. The benchmark 2-year note,
which is especially sensitive to Fed rate moves, briefly topped 5%, while the
benchmark 10-year yield rose
3 basis points.
---- Powell noted the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, showed core inflation at 2.8% in February and has been little changed over the past few months.
---- Financial markets have had to reset their
expectations for rate cuts this year. At the start of 2024, traders in the fed
funds futures market were pricing in six or seven cuts this year, starting in
March. As the data has progressed, the expectations have shifted to one or two
reductions, assuming quarter percentage point moves, and not starting until
September.
In their most recent
update, FOMC officials in March indicated they see three cuts this year.
However, several policymakers in recent days have stressed the data-dependent
nature of policy and have not committed to set level of reductions.
Fed Chair Powell says there has been a 'lack of further progress' this year on inflation (cnbc.com)
In Tech bubble news, is it over for Tesla and
the EV government top down mania?
Tesla shares fall
to lowest in almost a year after job cuts heighten concerns about waning demand
Companies often see their stock price jump after
announcing job cuts, as Wall Street rallies around the prospects for improved
efficiency and profits.
But that’s not how
investors treated the latest news out of Tesla.
Shares of the electric vehicle maker dropped almost 6% on Monday and another
2.7% on Tuesday, falling to their lowest since April of last year, after CEO Elon Musk told
employees the company is eliminating more than 10% of its global workforce.
“There is nothing I hate more, but it must be
done,” Musk wrote in a memo about the layoffs.
Tesla shares have
been spiraling since the calendar turned, tumbling
29% in the first quarter, the worst period since late 2022 and the
third-steepest drop since the company’s initial public offering in 2010. The
stock is 60% below its peak reached in November 2021.
Previous layoffs
haven’t drawn such market pessimism. In 2018, when Tesla
cut 9% of headcount, shares rose more than 3%. In 2022, the
stock plunged
9% on initial reports around layoffs but recovered after Musk
made clarifying
comments days later.
The Tesla of today
finds itself in a different kind of predicament.
Earlier this month,
the automaker reported a drop
in vehicle deliveries in the first quarter, the first annual
decline since 2020 when the Covid pandemic disrupted production. In China,
Tesla has faced an onslaught of competition from domestic EV makers, including
BYD and the phone maker Xiaomi.
Prior to the layoffs, Tesla had been cutting
prices and providing other buyer incentives, leading to likely margin erosion.
Last week, the company said it’s slashing the
subscription price of its premium driver assistance system, marketed as Full
Self-Driving (FSD), by half for customers in the U.S. FSD doesn’t make vehicles
autonomous and requires an attentive driver at all times.
More
Tesla
layoffs send shares down on concerns about weakening demand (cnbc.com)
EV Sales Plummet 14.1% In
Germany In Q1, Tesla Does Even Worse
In
the wake of disappearing incentives, German EV sales have fallen 14.1 percent
in Q1 2024
April 16, 2024
Germans
purchased a total of 694,785 new vehicles in the first quarter of 2024, marking
a 4.2 percent increase compared to the same period the previous year. However,
sales of electric vehicles experienced a significant decline of 14.1 percent in
Q1 2024 over last year, dropping from 94,736 to 81,337 units.
The industry has been grappling with challenges since the German government abruptly discontinued tax incentives for electric vehicles in December, which undoubtedly contributed to the decline in sales.
The
decline in EV sales in the market was particularly pronounced
among European automakers, as reported by data from the KBA, Germany’s federal
motor transport authority. Citroen, Jaguar, Polestar, and Volkswagen all saw a
30 percent reduction in EV sales in Q1 2024 compared to the previous year.
Meanwhile, Porsche, Peugeot, Mini, Fiat, and DS experienced even larger
contractions, with reductions exceeding 40 percent.
Europeans
weren’t the only ones to feel the market pinch, though. Tesla sold the most EVs in Germany in Q1, with 13,068.
However, this represented a significant decline of 36.7 percent from the 20,655
units sold in the first quarter of 2023.
More
EV Sales Plummet 14.1% In Germany In Q1, Tesla Does Even Worse | Carscoops
Finally, a surprising and bold gold
prediction from mega-bank Citi.
Gold is shining
‘bright like a diamond’ and could hit $3,000, says Citi
PUBLISHED TUE, APR 16 2024 12:56
AM EDT
Gold prices continued to hover near record highs
days after Middle East tensions flared, boosting the safe-haven appeal of
bullion.
Gold prices notched another record close Monday,
with the most-active June contract for gold futures trading 0.37% higher to
settle at $2,383 per ounce, and some say there’s more room to run.
“The recent gold rally has been aided by
geopolitical heat and is coinciding with record equity index levels,” Citi
wrote in a note dated April 15.
Demand for the safe-haven asset grew amid
escalating tensions in the Middle East after Iran fired over 300 drones and missiles directly at Israel — most of which were intercepted, thanks to
Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system.
Market watchers are closely monitoring a potential retaliation by
the Jewish state, which has vowed to “exact a price” from Iran.
A significant retaliation could lead to a wider
conflict, which would consequently trigger renewed buying of gold, as well as a
rally in oil prices and strengthening of the U.S. dollar, said Bartosz Sawicki,
market analyst at financial services firm Conotoxia fintech.
Gold, which retains its value as a hedge against inflation, tends to perform
well in periods of economic uncertainty when investors move away from the
riskier assets such as equities.
Bullion prices hit an all-time high of $2,448.80 per ounce
intraday last Friday.
Spot
gold prices have been on a tear since the start of the year,
climbing over 15% year-to-date on the back of a cocktail of factors including a global central bank splurge,
geopolitical tensions and expectations of rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Gold prices usually have an inverse relationship with interest rates. As
interest rates fall, gold becomes more appealing compared with fixed income
assets such as bonds, which would yield weaker returns.
Hotter-than-expected inflation in March pushed back market expectations of a rate cut to September,
and the expectation is now for two rate reductions instead of three.
In spite of that,
analysts remain bullish on the yellow metal’s outlook, boosted by continued
physical demand as well as its appeal as a geopolitical hedge.
“We project $3,000/oz
gold over the next 6-18m,” said Citi’s analysts led by Aakash Doshi, Citi’s
North America head of commodities research. The financial gold “price floor”
has also moved higher from around $1,000 to $2,000 per ounce, Citi said.
On Friday, Goldman
Sachs referred to the gold market as an “unshakeable bull market” and revised
upward its price target for the yellow metal from $2,300 per ounce to $2,700 by
the end of the year.
Gold is shining ‘bright like a diamond’ and could hit $3,000 says Citi (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Red
flags: Recruiter Hays the latest to sound alarm on 2024 economy
TUESDAY 16 APRIL 2024 7:28 AM
Hays became the second
recruiter in as many days to sound the alarm on the hiring market and the state
of the global economy this morning, with fees crashing across the world.
The update comes just
a day after a similarly downbeat assessment by headhunter
peer Pagegroup.
Total fees brought in
by Hays dropped
17 per cent compared to last year, the firm
revealed in a trading statement for the first three months of the year.
The drop-off was
especially bad in Australia and New Zealand, where revenue fell 29 per cent
versus a year ago.
However, in the UK and Ireland
figures were still dire, with fees declining by 16 per cent. This was also a
comparable decline to Germany.
Most regions traded broadly in line
with the overall UK business, apart from the Scotland and South West &
Wales, which were down 26 per cent and 23 per cent respectively.
London, the group’s largest region,
fell by 18 per cent, while Ireland only saw fees drop by 11 per cent.
Hays saw a greater drop in fees from
its permanent segment, which saw fees drop 21 per cent, while temporary
positions only declined by 14 per cent.
All big recruiters noted a marked slowdown in
activity in 2023, with Hays citing a weak December and a poor finish to the end
of last year, so it is unsurprising to see the trend continue.
The group saw a two per cent
improvement in consultant productivity throughout the quarter, while group
consultant headcount decreased by six per cent throughout the quarter and by 16
per cent compared to the start of last year.
Recruiters are often bellwethers for
the state of the wider economy.
More
Red flags: Recruiter Hays the latest to sound alarm on
2024 economy (cityam.com)
Wage
growth hotter than expected but unemployment rises as Bank of England considers
interest rate cuts
TUESDAY 16 APRIL 2024 7:07 AM
Wage growth eased slower than
expected, but unemployment picked up, as the labour market offered the Bank of
England divergent signals on the impact of its interest rate hikes.
Annual pay growth including bonuses
averaged 5.6 per cent between December and February, according to figures from
the Office for National Statistics (ONS), unchanged from 5.6 per cent last
month and slightly ahead of expectations.
Excluding bonuses, pay growth eased
to six per cent per cent from 6.1 per cent previously. Economists had expected
it to fall to 5.8 per cent.
“Recent trends of falling vacancy numbers and
slowing earnings growth have continued this month albeit at a reduced pace,”
Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS said.
Although wage growth
is slowing in nominal terms, workers still received their highest pay increase
in real terms for two and a half years. Regular pay rose by 1.9 per cent
between December and February.
Wages are closely
monitored by the Bank of England for signs of how its campaign of interest rate
hikes are impacting the wider economy.
Rate-setters are
concerned that high levels of wage growth could fuel persistent inflation,
particularly in the labour-intensive services sector. Services
inflation still stands at over six per
cent.
Economists think annual
wage growth needs to be closer to three
per cent for inflation to remain sustainably at the target.
Unemployment meanwhile jumped to 4.2
per cent, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 3.9 per cent.
McKeown recommended “caution” when
interpreting the unemployment figures given the difficulties the ONS is facing
with lower sample sizes. This has contributed to some volatility in the
quarterly figures.
Unemployment has remained very low
despite the Bank’s rate hikes, something which has surprised many economists.
More
Wage growth remains hot as Bank of England considers rate cuts (cityam.com)
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
So why vaccinate children, except to boost big pharma’s profits?
Why children get milder Covid than the elderly
April 15, 2024
Children are better protected
against Covid-19 because
their nose cells produce more warning flags telling the body disease is
present, British scientists have found.
From early on in the
pandemic, it was noted that coronavirus posed little danger to children, yet
could be lethal for older adults.
While the fatality rate was
around 0.002 per cent for primary-aged children, it rose to nearly three per cent
of 70-year-olds, while one in five infected 90-year-olds died from the
condition.
To find out what was behind
the disparity, researchers from University College London (UCL) took nasal samples from healthy children and adults
of different ages.
After
growing the cells into tissue that lines the nose, the team infected them with
Covid-19 to see if there was a difference in how they reacted depending on age.
After the three days, the
children’s cells had swung into action, producing interferon – a
flag-like protein that tells the body that an invader is present and helps ramp
up the immune system.
However, the same cells from
older people were weaker in their signalling, allowing the virus to get a
foothold more easily.
Dr Claire Smith, associate professor
at UCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health, the project lead, said:
“Our research reveals how the type of cells we have in our nose changes with
age, and how this affects our ability to combat Covid-19 infection.
“This could be crucial in developing
effective anti-viral treatments tailored to different age groups, especially
for the elderly who are at higher risk of severe Covid-19.
“Understanding the cellular
differences at the initiation of infection is just the beginning. We now hope
to investigate the long-term implications of these cellular changes and test
therapeutic interventions.”
Covid-19 hijacks cells, using their
internal machinery to produce more viruses.
The team found that in older people,
the invaded cells produced more infectious virus particles and suffered more
damage than the younger cells.
Experts said the strong early
antiviral response might explain why young people experienced milder symptoms.
More
Why children get milder Covid than the elderly
(msn.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the development
of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
The reality of EV battery recycling,
coming soon to an industrial recycling
site near you.
Fenix
battery fire saw my house pelted with batteries says terrified neighbour
Becca
Black was among those who had to flee last week's fire.
17:08, 15 APR 2024 UPDATED17:09, 15 APR 2024
A woman has told
how her house was pelted with batteries exploding from a massive inferno at a
recycling plant in Kilwinning last week.
Becca Black's
garden was finally cleared this morning after safety teams swept the area. It
followed the massive blaze at the Fenix site last Monday night.
Neighbours were
forced to flee during the terrifying late night fire which took days to fully
bring under control.
Becca, who lives
less than 50 yards from the plant, watched in horror as flames engulfed the
site and emergency services raced to the scene. She has told how batteries from
the facility began landing on her property in Byrehill Place - with dozens
coming to rest in her front and back garden.
The 31-year-old told Ayrshire Live: "The
last week has been a nightmare. The night itself was terrifying for everyone in
the street - I got a chap on the door from the firemen telling me to grab what
I could and just to go. It was a case of just running with what I had as the fire
took hold."
Becca was
eventually allowed to return to her property as fire crews worked to dampen the
smoke last week but ended in hospital suffering side effects. She has since
returned but admitted to feeling like a "prisoner in her own home"
during recent days.
She said: "It
was only this morning that they finally came to clear the batteries away. I'd
been told not to go into my garden or touch them because they weren't sure how
dangerous they were. I lost count of how many there were out there. There's a young
mum living near me and she's still not returned with her wee baby...people are
understandably really worried.
"I've felt a
bit trapped looking out the window at all these batteries and melted plastic
lying in my garden. Obviously it could have been worse and the main thing is
nobody was seriously hurt in the fire, but it's been a really scary time for
all of us living round here. We've been assured it's safe to return and the
area is clear. Hopefully we can get back to normal soon."
Residents reported
the area resembling a "war zone" as the blaze took hold with
explosions heard up to three miles away. At its peak, six fire appliances and a
height vehicle were sent to Byrehill Place to battle the flames with more than
40 firefighters tackling the blaze.
Fenix is the only multi-chemistry based battery recycler in
the UK. After opening its first plant in the West Midlands in 2020, the second
site in Kilwinning began operations in 2021. The company has said that the
cause of the fire is still under investigation.
Fenix battery fire saw my house pelted with batteries
says terrified neighbour - Daily Record
Finally,
our latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP
compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
The
abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to
use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit. In the
absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from
confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. Deficit
spending is simply a scheme for the hidden confiscation of wealth. Gold stands
in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property
rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the
statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.
Alan Greenspan.
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