Thursday, 11 April 2024

Did The Stock Punters Bet Wrong? “Supercore” CPI 8 Percent.

Baltic Dry Index. 1587 +17          Brent Crude  90.60

Spot Gold 2342                 US 2 Year Yield 4.97 +0.23

The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default.

Alan Greenspan.

In the stock casinos, rising fear that the punters won’t be bailed out this year by the US Fed and the other central banks. Globally, stock gamblers bet heavily on black turning up yesterday, but red turned up instead.

The US Consumer Price Index rose yesterday to 3.5 percent, with core CPI rising to 3.8 percent. US inflation might not be over after all.

Why would the US central bank start cutting interest rates here except to boost President Bidens Joe Biden’s prospects of re-election?

On to today’s ECB meeting and guidance and the US Producer Price Index update. Look away from that rising crude oil price and soaring US Treasury yields now.


Asia markets tumble as U.S. inflation stokes higher-for-longer rate worries; China CPI slows

UPDATED THU, APR 11 2024 10:53 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets tumbled after U.S. inflation for March came in hotter than expected, stoking worries that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer.

U.S. consumer price index climbed 3.5% on a year-on-year basis and 0.4% compared with the previous month. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected a 0.3% month-on-month gain and 3.4% year-over-year rise.

Excluding volatile food and energy components, the core CPI also accelerated 0.4% on a monthly basis while rising 3.8% from a year earlier, compared with respective estimates for 0.3% and 3.7%.

China’s consumer inflation slowed to 0.1% in March from 0.7% in February. Economists polled by Reuters expected the consumer price index to climb 0.4% in March.

The producer price index recorded a 2.8% fall year on year, in line with expectations.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index tumbled 1.18%, while the CSI 300 index in mainland China saw a smaller loss of 0.56%.

South Korean markets resumed trade after a public holiday, with the Kospi falling 0.48% and the small cap Kosdaq sliding 0.36%.

South Korea’s liberal opposition parties scored a landslide victory in a parliamentary election held on Wednesday, likely handicapping incumbent president Yoon Suk Yeol and his conservative party’s efforts to push through their legislative agenda.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.69%, while the broad-based Topix dropped 0.15%.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.72%.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes plunged as the 10-year Treasury yield spiked, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average leading losses and tumbling 1.09%.

The S&P 500 dropped 0.95%, with ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finishing the session in negative territory, while the Nasdaq Composite sank 0.84%.

The rate on the 10-year Treasury note topped 4.5%, while the 2-year Treasury yields surged close to 5%.

Asia markets live updates: U.S. CPI, China CPI, China PPI (cnbc.com)

 

European stocks set for mixed open as markets digest U.S. inflation data, look ahead to ECB decision

UPDATED THU, APR 11 2024 12:37 AM EDT

European markets are heading for a mixed open on Thursday as global investors digested the latest U.S. inflation data, which came in hotter than expected.

European and U.S. stocks traded lower after the U.S. inflation data for March came in at 3.5% year on year, above the 3.4% expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones and 0.3 percentage points higher than in February. 

Markets had expected the U.S. Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in June, with further cuts expected later this year, but that shifted dramatically following the release, with traders now expecting the first cut in September, according to CME Group calculations.

European investors’ focus is on the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision Thursday, with the central bank being closely watched for clues that it could start to cut rates in summer.

European markets live updates: stocks, inflation data and Fed reaction (cnbc.com)

 

Inflation Remains a Nagging Problem for the US

April 10, 2024 at 11:39 PM GMT+1

Inflation is sticking around it seems. A key US price gauge topped forecasts for a third straight month thanks to rising rent and transportation costs. The so-called core consumer price index—which excludes food and energy—increased 0.4% from February. Paired with recent reports showing continued good news for American workers (labor market and economic activity remain strong), investors no longer see much chance that the Federal Reserve will start easing anytime soon.

Wall Street on Wednesday responded accordingly. Forecasters have been waiting for a deceleration based on leading indicators, but progress has more or less stalled over the past nine months. “The sound you heard there was the door slamming on a June rate cut,” said David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management’s chief global strategist. “That’s gone.”

More

Bloomberg Evening Briefing: Inflation Remains a Nagging Problem for the US - Bloomberg

Hot US inflation figures ‘pretty much kill’ hopes of a June interest rate cut

WEDNESDAY 10 APRIL 2024 1:44 PM

US inflation came in ahead of expectations for a third consecutive month as the prospect of imminent interest rate cuts looks increasingly remote.

Figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4 per cent month-on-month in March. Economists had expected prices to increase 0.3 per cent.

This brought the annual rate of inflation to 3.5 per cent, up from February’s figure of 3.2 per cent and slightly higher than the 3.4 per cent expected by economists.

“The index for shelter rose in March, as did the index for gasoline,” the Bureau said. “Combined, these two indexes contributed over half of the monthly increase in the index for all items.”

Core inflation – which strips out volatile components such as food and energy – remained stuck at 3.8 per cent, after a third consecutive 0.4 per increase on the last month.

The annual figure was unchanged from last month’s figures and also higher than economists expected.

“This marks the third consecutive strong reading and means that the stalled disinflationary narrative can no longer be called a blip,” Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management said.

The figures come amid a growing debate about the timing of the Fed’s first interest rate cuts. Markets have steadily pushed back the timing of the first cut, reflecting stubborn inflation.

Having peaked at over nine per cent in 2022, inflation dropped to three per cent last summer and has remained stuck above that level ever since. Since the turn of this year, it has even shown signs of re-accelerating.


Other indicators also suggest the US economy is still running too hot to allow for rate cuts. Last week figures revealed the US labour market added a staggering 303,000 jobs, well ahead of the 214,000 expected by economists.


All of this has forced markets to reassess the potential timing of the Fed’s first rate cuts. At the beginning of the year, investors were more or less certain that rate cuts would begin in March, with as many as six cuts expected for the year.


Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Milton Diversified Funds said a June cut looks “less and less likely” as the US economy continues to run at a startling pace.

 

Paul Ashworth, Chief North America Economist at Capital Economics, went even further, arguing the figures “pretty much kill off hopes of a June rate cut”.

Before the figures were released this morning, markets thought there was just a 50 per cent chance of a rate cut in June. This fell to just 25 per cent after the figures were released.

Some economists, including Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, have raised the possibility that there will be not be any rate cuts if inflation continues to move sideways.

Hot US inflation figures 'pretty much kill' hopes of a June rate cut (cityam.com)

The ‘supercore’ inflation measure shows Fed may have a real problem on its hands

A hotter-than-expected consumer price index reading rattled markets Wednesday, but markets are buzzing about an even more specific prices gauge contained within the data — the so-called supercore inflation reading.

Along with the overall inflation measure, economists also look at the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to find the true trend. The supercore gauge, which also excludes shelter and rent costs from its services reading, takes it even a step further. Fed officials say it is useful in the current climate as they see elevated housing inflation as a temporary problem and not as good a gauge of underlying prices.

Supercore accelerated to a 4.8% pace year over year in March, the highest in 11 months.

Tom Fitzpatrick, managing director of global market insights at R.J. O’Brien & Associates, said if you take the readings of the last three months and annualize them, you’re looking at a supercore inflation rate of more than 8%, far from the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.

“As we sit here today, I think they’re probably pulling their hair out,” Fitzpatrick said.

More

'Supercore' inflation measure shows Fed may have a real problem (cnbc.com)

Finally, did the EV market just go from boom to bust? Poor EU, saturated with cheap unsellable Chinese EVs.

 

This bad EV news could hit Nio, XPeng, Li Auto, BYD stocks

April 9, 2024

  • Chinese EV sales growth slowed in the first quarter.
  • European ports are being flooded with thousands of Chinese EVs.
  • The implication is that Chinese EVs companies will have thin margins.

Red flags in the electric vehicle (EV) industry are still flashing everywhere. Most EV stocks have plunged, with Tesla (TSLA) erasing over 30% of its value this year. Other popular companies like Lucid Motors, Rivian, and Mullen Automotive have also plunged.

Chinese EV stocks have not been left behind. Nio stock price is down by over 51% in 2024 while XPeng and Li Auto have plunged by over 49% and 16%. BYD has fallen by 6.2%. These declines of EV stocks have erased over $1 trillion of value in the past few years.

Now, a new report by the Financial Times points to more woes in the industry. The paper noted that an influx of Chinese EVs has turned EU ports into ‘car parks’. Some vehicles have remained in these ports for up to 18 months.

This trend is happening because of a strong slowdown in Chinese EV sales in Europe and logistics challenges. In a statement, a boss at the Zeebrugge port, Europe’s busiest car import port, noted that many distributors were using car parks as their depots instead of sending them to dealers.

This is a major issue for Chinese companies like Nio, XPeng, Li Auto, and BYD, which are battling a saturated home market. As a result, these firms believe that Europe is a natural market to expand to because of its focus on clean energy. 

Most of these companies have also seen the success of Tesla in key markets like Norway, Germany, Spain, and the UK. However, these companies are facing the European market hard to navigate as most buyers still prefer European brands. 

More

This bad EV news could hit Nio, XPeng, Li Auto, BYD stocks (invezz.com)

21,000 Fires a Year! China’s Often Self-Igniting EVs & EBs Become Ubiquitous ‘Moving Bombs’

21,000 Fires a Year! China’s Often Self-Igniting EVs & EBs Become Ubiquitous ‘Moving Bombs’ (youtube.com)

Approx. 20 minutes.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

US consumer prices rise more than expected in March

By Reuters 

WASHINGTON, April 10 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in March amid rises in the costs of gasoline and shelter, casting further doubt on whether the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in June.

The consumer price index rose 0.4% last month after advancing by the same margin in February, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said on Wednesday.

Gasoline and shelter costs, which include rents, accounted for more than half of the increase in the CPI.

In the 12 months through March, the CPI increased 3.5% also as last year's low reading dropped out of the calculation. That followed a 3.2% rise in February.

The U.S. central bank has a 2% inflation target. The measures it tracks for monetary policy are running considerably below the CPI rate.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI gaining 0.3% on the month and advancing 3.4% on a year-on-year basis.

Though the annual increase in consumer prices has declined from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022, the disinflationary trend has slowed in recent months.

Following last week's stronger-than-expected job growth in March as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 3.8% from 3.9% in February, some economists have pushed back rate cut expectations to July. Others still believe the Fed will move in June. A minority see the window for rate cuts closing.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly said that the U.S. central bank is in no rush to start lowering borrowing costs.

----Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI gained 0.4% last month after a similar rise in February and January. In the 12 months through March, the core CPI rose 3.8%, matching February's increase.

US consumer prices rise more than expected in March | Reuters

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Big pharma still promoting vaccine shots and getting very rich. Why not try boosting their vitamin D levels first?

Covid-19 vaccine protection wanes faster among the elderly, booster shots needed: NUS study

UPDATED    APR 10, 2024, 03:08 PM

SINGAPORE - Senior citizens should consider receiving booster doses of the updated Covid-19 vaccine regularly, according to a recently published study by local researchers.

This is because in people over 65, protection from the first two doses wanes faster, as they have a lower immune cell count.

The study was led by Dr Vanda Ho, a PhD student at the Department of Microbiology and Immunology, and Immunology and Infectious Diseases Translational Research Programmes at NUS Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine.

It involved 29 participants, 14 of whom were aged between 66 and 82, and the rest being younger adults between 25 and 39 years old. They all received two doses of the Covid-19 mRNA Pfizer vaccine.

The findings of the study were published in the peer review journal Ageing Cell in February.

“Older adults had a significant increase in neutralisation after the second dose, but this was still lower than the younger adults, despite the former being robust,” said Dr Ho.

So it is important for older adults to go for booster vaccinations regularly to protect themselves, she added.

More

Covid-19 vaccine protection wanes faster among the elderly, booster shots needed: NUS study | The Straits Times

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Graphjet Technology to Build New Agricultural Waste-to-Graphite Production Facility in Nevada

April 10, 2024

Graphjet Technology (“Graphjet” or “the Company”), a leading developer of patented technologies to produce graphite and graphene directly from agricultural waste, today announced it plans to build a commercial artificial graphite production facility in Nevada. This plant is expected to be a first-of-its-kind in the United States.

The plant is expected to be capable of recycling up to 30,000 metric tons of palm kernel material equivalent – a widely abundant agricultural waste product in Malaysia – to produce up to 10,000 metric tons of battery-grade, artificial graphite per year. This level of production is expected to be able to support the production of enough batteries to power more 100,000 electric vehicles (EVs) per year.

In addition to producing graphite, Graphjet’s first commercial plant in Malaysia, which is on track to be commissioned in the second quarter of 2024, will process palm kernel shells into hard carbon, which will be shipped to Nevada. This eliminates a conversion step in Graphjet’s production process, which would enable its Nevada facility to produce graphite more quickly. Graphjet is aiming to commission and begin production at the new facility in 2026.

----Nevada is a strategic location for Graphjet as it is located in close proximity to a large quantity of battery manufacturers and automotive OEMs, which will require a significant amount of graphite for future EV battery production. Graphjet’s Nevada manufacturing facility is expected to create more than 500 high skilled labor positions. Furthermore, Graphjet expects to invest between $150 million and $200 million into the facility and is currently evaluating financing and strategic options to fund the plant.

More

Graphjet Technology to Build New Agricultural Waste-to-Graphite Production Facility in Nevada (msn.com)

Finally, our latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Remember what we're looking at. Gold is a currency. It is still, by all evidence, a premier currency, that no fiat currency, including the dollar, can match.

Alan Greenspan.

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