Wednesday, 10 April 2024

US Inflation Day Arrives. In Trade War Action, China Hits Back.

Baltic Dry Index. 1570 -24           Brent Crude  89.47

Spot Gold 2357                 US 2 Year Yield 4.74 -0.04

 

The economic miracle that has been the United States was not produced by socialized enterprises, by government-union-industry cartels or by centralized economic planning. It was produced by private enterprises in a profit-and-loss system. And losses were at least as important in weeding out failures, as profits in fostering successes. Let government succor failures, and we shall be headed for stagnation and decline.

Milton Friedman.

It is inflation day in the USA. Will the latest Consumer Price Index numbers be good enough to prompt the US central bank to start cutting interest rates in June?

The US stock casinos will react one way or another, good, bad or indifferent.

 

Asia markets mostly fall as Japan corporate inflation climbs; New Zealand holds rates

UPDATED WED, APR 10 2024 10:53 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell as of Japan’s corporate inflation climbed in March and rate decisions are assessed from New Zealand and Thailand’s central banks.

South Korea’s markets are closed Wednesday, as the country heads to the polls to elect its next parliament.

Japan’s corporate inflation rate came in at 0.8% for March, its third straight month of increase and in line with expectations from a Reuters poll of economists, while investors also brace for the U.S. consumer price index report later Wednesday.

Separately, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its benchmark interest rates at 5.5%, saying that “a restrictive monetary policy stance remains necessary to further reduce capacity pressures and inflation.”

Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.27%, while the broad based Topix was down 0.17%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 1.32%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 was down 0.38%.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 is on pace for a third straight day of gains, climbing 0.52%.

Overnight in the U.S., the three major indexes ended mixed ahead of the CPI report, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing just below the flatline.

On the other hand, the S&P 500 notched a gain of 0.14%, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.32%.

Asia markets live updates: Japan CGPI, RBNZ rate decision (cnbc.com)

 

Stock futures are flat as key March inflation report looms: Live updates

UPDATED WED, APR 10 2024 8:28 PM EDT

Stock futures hovered near the flatline Tuesday night as investors await key U.S. inflation data that will inform the Federal Reserve’s path on rate policy.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 37 points, or 0.09%. S&P 500 futures traded higher by 0.08%, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.1%.

During Tuesday’s regular trading, investors appeared to be in a holding pattern ahead of the March consumer price index report. The 30-stock Dow slipped 0.02%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite inched higher by 0.3%.

The CPI report, which is set to release on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, is estimated to have increased 0.3% in March on a month-over-month basis and 3.4% from 12 months earlier, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones. Economists expect core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to rise 0.3% and 3.7%, respectively.

Traders are looking to the CPI data for clues on how central bank policymakers may proceed on interest rates — and the outcome is sure to affect Wednesday’s market moves. Fed funds futures trading data suggests a 42% likelihood that the central bank will hold steady on rates in June, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

A hotter-than-expected inflation reading could lead to a serious pullback after the market’s run-up this year, while a cooler print could lead Treasury yields to pull back and lift the equity market, according to Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial.

“The market is increasingly concerned that inflation remains more stubborn, or perhaps even stalled in its downward trajectory,” Krosby said. “There’s a whiff of stagflation hovering over markets if the Fed goes ahead with initiating the easing cycle without inflation quickening its downward path.”

In addition to the big inflation report on Wednesday, investors are also looking forward to the meeting minutes from the Fed’s gathering last month. They will be hunting for clues on where policymakers stand on expected rate cuts this year.

Earnings season for the first quarter is also about to kick off. Delta Air Lines is slated to post results Wednesday before the bell.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

A crucial report Wednesday is expected to show little progress against inflation

A closely watched Labor Department report due Wednesday is expected to show that not much progress is being made in the battle to bring down inflation.

If so, that would be bad news for consumers, market participants and Federal Reserve officials, who are hoping price increases slow enough so that they can start gradually cutting interest rates later this year.

The consumer price index, which measures costs for a wide-ranging basket of goods and services across the $27.4 trillion U.S. economy, is expected to register increases of 0.3% both for the all-items measure as well as the core yardstick that excludes volatile food and energy.

On a 12-month basis that would put the inflation rates at 3.4% and 3.7%, respectively, a 0.2 percentage point increase in the headline rate from February, just a 0.1 percentage point decrease for the core rate, and both still a far cry from the central bank’s 2% target.

“We’re not headed there fast enough or convincing enough, and I think that’s what this report is going to show,” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade North America.

The report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.

North said he expects Fed officials to view the report pretty much the same way, backing up comments they’ve been making for weeks that they need more evidence that inflation is convincingly on its way back to 2% before rate cuts can happen.

“Moving convincingly toward 2% doesn’t just mean hitting 2% for one month. It means hitting 2% or less for months and months in a row,” North said. “We’re a long way from that, and that’s probably what’s going to show tomorrow as well.”

More

Wednesday's report expected to show little progress against inflation (cnbc.com)

In commodities news, China hits back in the USA-EU trade war on China.

China doubles price of rare metal to £454 a kg as world panics there's not enough of it

This price spike is largely seen as a response from Beijing to the trade war between China and the US.

By ALICE SCARSI, World News Reporter, MARIA ORTEGA

17:53, Mon, Apr 8, 2024 | UPDATED: 17:55, Mon, Apr 8, 2024

The trade war on technology between the US and China is having a ripple effect on the whole Western world.

 

The price of gallium, one of the rare earths largely found and processed by Beijing, has more than doubled over the past eight months.

While, according to Fastmarkets data, the cost of the metal delivered to Rotterdam reached an eye-watering £454.58 ($575) a kilogram at the end of March, the demand has not fallen, as it is too important and irreplaceable in certain industries.

Gallium, as well as germanium, were placed by Beijing under stricter government oversight last July, a move largely seen as a tit-for-tat response to the deepening trade war between China and the US.

The exports of gallium nearly came to a halt in August and September. The material started to flow back into the Western market in the autumn of 2023, but in a much lower volume.

China reportedly shipped just over 2,700kg of gallium in the first two months of this year, a fraction of what was being sold to the West in the same period of 2023 - more than 8,800kg.

The biggest buyers were Japan at 1,000kg, South Korea at 900kg and Germany at 500kg, Bloomberg wrote.

Fears of shortages and the urgent need to replenish low reserves may have contributed to the price hike.

The West has grown dangerously dependent on China when it comes to rare earths, as the country produces 60 percent of the whole world's rare metals and processes nearly 90 percent of them.

Figures from the World Mining Data concerning only gallium suggest China produced in 2021 nearly 97 percent of the metal in its primary form.

Among the industries highly dependent on gallium are those of semiconductors, radar devices, solar panels and smartphone screens.

Gallium chips are also widely used in defence and aerospace equipment.

China doubles price of rare metal to £454 per kilogram | World | News | Express.co.uk

Finally, more on so you really, really want to drive an EV. Well maybe not in the UK.


Weak mobile signals could hamper electric car charging – report

April 8, 2024

Electric vehicle (EV) drivers could struggle to use around two-thirds of Britain’s most common type of public chargepoint because of patchy mobile signals, according to a report.

The RAC Foundation, which conducted the research, warned that the issue risks “undermining” confidence in EV infrastructure.

The study found that 66% of Type-2 chargers – which have speeds of up to 8kw – in Britain excluding London are in areas where at least one mobile network provider does not have usable 4G coverage.

Where signal connectivity at a chargepoint is a problem, drivers might conclude that the charger is at fault, hence undermining the confidence we should be building in the reliability of public charging options for electric vehicles

Steve Gooding, RAC Foundation

In the capital, the figure is only slightly lower at 61.3%.

The vast majority of Type-2 public chargers require drivers to access them via mobile phone apps, and the chargers themselves need an adequate mobile connection to function.

Unless all four of Britain’s mobile network providers – EE, O2, Three and Vodafone – provide adequate coverage at a charger’s location, there is a risk a driver will be unable to recharge their EV, the report warned.

RAC Foundation director Steve Gooding said: “Drivers of vehicles fuelled by petrol and diesel are used to reliable and hassle-free filling up at any of the 8,400 forecourts across Britain.

“The same cannot yet be said of topping up the battery of an electric car at a public chargepoint.

“Where signal connectivity at a chargepoint is a problem, drivers might conclude that the charger is at fault, hence undermining the confidence we should be building in the reliability of public charging options for electric vehicles.”

Mr Gooding warned that poor connectivity for Type-2 chargers “won’t get picked up” in the Government’s new mandatory reporting system as it only applies to the rapid charger network.

He called for a “better approach” to highlighting connectivity issues, so that designers can make “workarounds” available such as wi-fi hotspots and satellite internet provision.

Last week the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) issued renewed pleas for EV purchase incentives after figures showed a decline in the vehicles’ share of the new car market.

Some 15.2% of new cars registered in March were pure electrics, down from 16.2% during the same month last year.

The SMMT is urging the Government to halve VAT on the purchase of new EVs, amend plans to introduce vehicle excise duty for EVs, and reduce VAT on public charging to bring it into line with home charging.

More

Weak mobile signals could hamper electric car charging – report (msn.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

With Uncle Scam and Bidenomics wracking up a trillion dollars of new Federal debt every hundred days, is Zimbabwe showing how all fiat currencies eventually end?

Zimbabwe just introduced a new gold-backed currency in an attempt to fight inflation and wean off the US dollar

April 9, 2024

  • Zimbabwe's central bank has introduced a new gold-backed currency, ZiG, to combat high inflation.
  • This is Zimbabwe's sixth attempt at a new currency since 2008.
  • The African nation is aiming to phase out its multi-currency system where the US dollar is dominant.

Inflation-hit Zimbabwe has a new currency — again.

Last week, the country's central bank introduced a new gold-backed currency called Zimbabwe Gold, or ZiG, in an attempt to tame price gains that reached a seven-month high of 55% in March.

It's the country's sixth attempt at creating a new currency since 2008. The Zimbabwe dollar — the currency the country most recently used — has tanked 80% this year alone.

There's been so little confidence in Zimbabwe's local currency that about 80% of the country's population transacts in the US dollar.

On Thursday, Zimbabwe's central bank governor, John Mushayavanhu, said the country has real gold and mineral assets to back up the new ZiG currency. Mushayavanhu said Zimbabwe's central bank holds 2.1 tons of gold and other assets, including diamonds, that are equivalent to 0.4 tons of gold, according to Voice of America.

The ZiG started trading on Monday at an exchange rate of 13.56 to the dollar set by the central bank.

Zimbabwe just introduced a new gold-backed currency in an attempt to fight inflation and wean off the US dollar (msn.com)

Fitch downgrades outlook on China to negative on economic growth risks

By Reuters 

BEIJING, April 10 (Reuters) - Ratings agency Fitch revised its outlook on China's sovereign credit rating to negative on Tuesday, citing risks to public finances as the economy faced increasing uncertainty in its shift to new growth models.

Fitch forecast the general government deficit would rise to 7.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 from 5.8% in 2023, the highest since a reading of 8.6% in 2020, when Beijing's strict COVID curbs weighed heavily on the world's No.2 economy.

While it lowered its outlook, indicating a downgrade is possible over the medium term, the agency affirmed China's IDR rating at 'A+'.

Fitch forecast China's economic growth would slow to 4.5% in 2024 from 5.2% last year, in contrast to Citi and the International Monetary Fund, which both revised up their China forecasts.

China's factory output and retail sales topped forecasts in January-February, joining better-than-expected exports and consumer inflation indicators, providing an early boost to Beijing's hopes of reaching what analysts have described as an ambitious 5.0% gross domestic product growth target for 2024.

"The outlook revision reflects increasing risks to China's public finance outlook as the country contends with more uncertain economic prospects amid a transition away from property-reliant growth to what the government views as a more sustainable growth model," Fitch said.

China's finance ministry said following the announcement it regretted Fitch's ratings decision.

Moody's in December slapped a downgrade warning on China's credit rating, citing the costs to bail out local governments and state firms and control its property crisis.

Fitch downgrades outlook on China to negative on economic growth risks | Reuters

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Long COVID 'leaves distinctive signs in blood which could be targets for treatment'

April 8, 2024

Findings from the largest UK study of patients admitted to hospital with coronavirus show long COVID leads to ongoing inflammation which can be detected in the blood.

The analysis of more than 650 people who had been in hospital with severe COVID-19 found patients with prolonged symptoms showed evidence of their immune system being activated.

How the activation happened depended on the type of symptoms they mainly had, for example fatigue or brain fog.

The research, led by Imperial College London, suggests existing drugs which modulate the body's immune system could be helpful in treating long COVID and should be investigated in future research.

Professor Peter Openshaw, from Imperial's National Heart and Lung Institute, said: "With one in 10 Sars-CoV-2 infections leading to long COVID and an estimated 65 million people around the world suffering from ongoing symptoms, we urgently need more research to understand this condition."

He said the study "is an important step forward and provides crucial insights into what causes long COVID".

He added: "I do think that there is a hopeful message which says that there are these biological pathways that are activated from different forms of persistent symptomatology after COVID, and people aren't imagining it.

Long COVID 'leaves distinctive signs in blood which could be targets for treatment' (msn.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Improving sodium ion batteries with mechanically robust nanocellular graphene

April 8, 2024

Ever since its discovery in 2004, graphene has been revolutionizing the field of materials science and beyond. Graphene comprises two-dimensional sheets of carbon atoms, bonded into a thin hexagonal shape with a thickness of one atom layer. This gives it remarkable physical and chemical properties.

Despite its thinness, graphene is incredibly strong, lightweight, flexible, and transparent. It also exhibits extraordinary electrical and thermal conductivity, high surface area, and impermeability to gases. From high-speed transistors to biosensors, it boasts an unrivaled versatility in applications.

Nanocellular graphene (NCG) is a specialized form of graphene that achieves a large specific surface area by stacking multiple layers of graphene and controlling its internal structure with a nanoscale cellular morphology.

NCG is coveted for its potential to improve the performance of electronic devices, energy devices and sensors. But its development has been stymied by defects that occur during the manufacturing process. Cracks often appear when forming NCG, and scientists are looking for new processing technologies that can fabricate homogeneous, crack-free and seamless NCGs at appropriate scales.

"We discovered that carbon atoms rapidly self-assemble into crack-free NCG during liquid metal dealloying of an amorphous Mn-C precursor in a molten bismuth," says Won-Young Park, a graduate student at Tohoku University.

The findings are published in the journal Advanced Materials.

Dealloying is a processing technique that exploits the varying miscibility of alloy components in a molten metal bath. This process selectively corrodes certain components of the alloy while preserving others.

Park and his colleagues demonstrated that NCGs developed by this method exhibited high tensile strength and high conductivity after graphitization. Moreover, they put the material to the test in a sodium-ion battery (SIB).

"We used the developed NCG as an active material and current collector in a SIB, where it demonstrated a high rate, long life and excellent deformation resistance. Ultimately, our method of making crack-free NCG will make it possible to raise the performance and flexibility of SIBs—an alternative technology to lithium-ion batteries for certain applications, particularly in large-scale energy storage and stationary power systems where cost, safety, and sustainability considerations are paramount."

More information: Wong‐Young Park et al, Mechanically Robust Self‐Organized Crack‐Free Nanocellular Graphene with Outstanding Electrochemical Properties in Sodium Ion Battery, Advanced Materials (2024). DOI: 10.1002/adma.202311792

Improving sodium ion batteries with mechanically robust nanocellular graphene (msn.com)

Finally, our latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

A society that puts equality — in the sense of equality of outcome — ahead of freedom will end up with neither equality nor freedom. The use of force to achieve equality will destroy freedom, and the force, introduced for good purposes, will end up in the hands of people who use it to promote their own interests.

Milton Friedman.

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