Monday, 8 April 2024

Stocks Nervous Ahead Of US Inflation Data.

Baltic Dry Index. 1628 -41            Brent Crude  89.81

Spot Gold 2344                 US 2 Year Yield 4.73 +0.08

Today, across much of the USA a total eclipse of the sun.

LIVE: Total Solar Eclipse April 8, 2024. Courtesy of our friends at TimeandDate.com

LIVE: Total Solar Eclipse April 8, 2024. Courtesy of our friends at TimeandDate.com - YouTube

In the stock casinos, nervous trading ahead of the week’s US inflation figures and several Asian central bank meetings and the ECB meeting.

Any US CPI surprise to the upside on Friday will likely delay any US interest rate cut from June until later in the year. A surprise to the downside is unlikely and probably lead many to question the data.

With oil and many food commodities rising again, two wars raging and a wider Middle East war just one mistake away, will today’s USA total solar eclipse bring good luck or bad luck to the stock casinos?

In slightly better news this morning, the Brent crude oil price has fallen back below 90 dollars but only by a few cents.


Asia markets mixed ahead of central bank decisions, U.S. and China inflation data this week

UPDATED MON, APR 8 2024 12:33 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed ahead of central bank decisions this week, with investors also awaiting inflation numbers from the U.S. and China.

The Bank of Korea, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Bank of Thailand and the central bank of the Philippines have their monetary policy meetings scheduled this week.

S&P Global expects all four banks to hold their rates steady, but also added in its note that “the Bank of Korea may be amongst [banks] which [are] close to lowering rates and the rhetoric will be in focus.” The BOK was among one of the earliest Asian banks to halt its rate tightening cycle in 2023.

Later in the week, U.S. and China inflation numbers will be in focus, with China also releasing trade data for March on Friday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rebounded to cross the 39,000 mark, gaining 1.54%, while the broad-based Topix rose 1.33%.

South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.12%, while the small-cap Kosdaq saw a loss of 1.28%.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was up 0.19%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.71%, while the mainland Chinese CSI 300 was down 0.77% after coming back from a public holiday.

On Friday in the U.S., all three major indexes regained ground after a stronger than expected jobs report, with the Labor Department’s report showing that job growth totaled 303,000 in March.

Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase by 200,000, according to Dow Jones estimates. Wages rose 0.3% for the month and 4.1% from a year earlier, both in line with estimates.

The 30-stock Dow climbed 0.8%, while the S&P 500 gained 1.11%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.24%.

Asia markets live updates: Central banks; U.S., China inflation data (cnbc.com)

 

Stock futures rise slightly in overnight trading following the market’s losing week: Live updates

UPDATED MON, APR 8 2024 7:00 PM EDT

Stock futures rose slightly in overnight trading Sunday after the market suffered a down week as 2024′s rally took a breather.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 55 points. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both inched up 0.1%.

The 30-stock Dow fell 2.3% last week, posting its worst weekly performance March 2023. The S&P 500 declined nearly 1% during the period, its biggest weekly loss since early January. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.8%, suffering its fourth negative week in five.

The market did end last week on a positive note, however, after a stronger-than-expected jobs report Friday. The surprising gain in payrolls gave investors hope that a strong economy could continue to support corporate earnings growth, even if it means higher interest rates for longer.

“Jobs and wages are rising solidly and aggregate payrolls are outpacing inflation, which will keep Americans spending in 2024 and powering the economy forward,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank.

For further clarity on how successful the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation has been, investors are eagerly waiting for readings for March consumer and producer price indexes later this week.

Economists polled by Dow Jones expect the CPI number, to be released Wednesday morning, to increase 0.3% last month and 3.5% year over year.

“The Fed seems unbothered by robust employment gains ... Inflation though is a bigger issue, and it’s imperative that the Mar price data (CPI, PPI, PCE) show the disinflationary process getting back on track,” Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, said in a note.

Investors are also grappling with rising bond yields and oil prices. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield surged nearly 20 basis points to last week to about 4.4%. U.S. crude oil touched $87 amid geopolitical tensions.

Stock futures rise slightly in overnight trading following the market's losing week: Live updates (cnbc.com)

 

Wall St Week Ahead US stocks' lofty valuations in spotlight as earnings season nears

By David Randall and Lewis Krauskopf

NEW YORK, April 5 (Reuters) - The U.S. stock market is the most expensive it has been in around two years. Its valuation could be put to the test as companies report earnings in coming weeks.

The S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab is up more than 9% year-to-date, following its strongest first-quarter performance since 2019. But the bar may be rising for stocks to keep advancing at that pace, increasing pressure on companies to deliver strong results.

The benchmark index trades at 20.7 times its estimated earnings for the next 12 months, near a more than two-year high of 21.2 hit in late March, according to LSEG Datastream. Unremarkable earnings growth could give investors less reason to hold onto stocks, at a time when elevated yields on Treasuries bolster the attractiveness of bonds.

Investors will also listen for companies’ views on the economy and inflation, to gauge whether the so-called Goldilocks environment of resilient growth and cooling consumer prices can continue.

Signs of stubborn inflation have diminished expectations in recent weeks for how deeply the Federal Reserve will cut rates this year. Stocks rose after another stronger-than-expected employment report on Friday.

“If we're going to continue to make significant gains in the stock market, we have to not just meet, but probably exceed ... what those estimates are for earnings,” said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment officer at BMO Wealth Management.

Delta Air Lines (DAL.N), opens new tab, BlackRock (BLK.N), opens new tab, and JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), opens new tab are among the companies scheduled to release their first quarter results next week. Investors will also be watching for March U.S. consumer price data, expected on April 10.

Analysts expect to see earnings growth of 5% in the first quarter, according to LSEG data. That would be the lowest since the second quarter of 2023. They expect margins to be squeezed by high interest rates, rising commodity costs, and falling corporate pricing power due to slowing inflation. Earnings grew by 10.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023.

More

Wall St Week Ahead US stocks' lofty valuations in spotlight as earnings season nears | Reuters


Capitalism means free enterprise, sovereignty of the consumers in economic matters, and sovereignty of the voters in political matters. Socialism means full government control of every sphere of the individuals life and the unrestricted supremacy of the government in its capacity as central board of production management.

 

Ludwig von Mises.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

INVESTING EXPLAINED: What you need to know about second-wave inflation

April 5, 2024

----Chancellor Jeremy Hunt assured us in last month's Budget that inflation will fall below the Bank of England's 2 per cent target. But pessimistic economists argue that inflation has not been tamed, either in the UK or in the US. And they claim it could stage a comeback – in a second wave.

Why are economists so gloomy?

They point to the experience of the 1970s which shows that tackling sky-rocketing inflation takes a long time.

They also argue that reducing interest rates in the near future – on the basis that inflation is no longer a threat – would be dangerous for the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve.

Some of these doomsters even warn of the possibility of 1970s style stagflation (soaring inflation combined with a slump).

They say that the American stock market boom, which has largely been fuelled by artificial intelligence (AI) excitement, is the kind of asset price inflation that could rekindle wider inflation.

Do they have other concerns?

Yes. They say that the spread of conflict in the Middle East raises the possibility of more energy price shocks. The US may be a net energy exporter, but the UK, like the rest of Europe, is more reliant on imported oil and gas.

They also point to rising housing costs in the UK and the US. More expensive rents add to the pressure for generous pay settlements. In the longer term, the ageing of the population means that fewer people are working, meaning wage demands will remain elevated, thus ensuring inflation remains stubbornly high.

More

INVESTING EXPLAINED: What you need to know about second-wave inflation (msn.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Earliest COVID-19 vaccine recipients wrote in tens of thousands of injuries left off CDC surveys

Agency unsuccessfully fought to keep "free text" entries hidden after turning over the checkbox survey data in a different lawsuit. "Persistent immune imprinting," from taking same vaccine repeatedly, confirmed again.

Published: April 4, 2024 11:00pm

The earliest recipients of newly authorized COVID-19 vaccines, including healthcare workers, wrote in tens of thousands of adverse events related to the heart, ears, reproductive system and other conditions not listed as checkboxes in a federal active monitoring smartphone app.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the past two months turned over 780,000 "free text" entries from V-safe, the agency's vaccine-safety monitoring system, under a January order by U.S. District Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk in a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit by Freedom Coalition of Doctors for Choice. 

It kept holding out for more than a year after turning over the checkbox answers in a different FOIA lawsuit by the Informed Consent Action Network, which revealed nearly 8% of V-safe users said they required medical care, another 12% couldn't perform normal daily activities and yet another 13% said they missed work or school.

Kacsmaryk scolded the agency for drastically overstating how difficult it would be to redact free-text entries — 93% of which the CDC admitted had no personally identifying information — that were limited to 250 characters, which the judge compared to tweets.

ICAN, which shares lawyer Aaron Siri with FCDC, made the first two productions of free-text entries available over the past month. The group said they show "remarkable consistency" between each other in adverse events reported, specifically highlighting the frequency of symptoms associated with myocarditis – inflammation of the the heart muscle myocardium. 

The CDC has until mid-January 2025 to turn over all 7.8 million free-text entries from V-safe, which registered 8.5 million users from December 2020 to April 2021, when the vaccines became generally available to adults. 

More than 10 million participants have submitted 151 million health surveys through the app as of January, according to the agency. They answer questions at daily, then weekly and finally quarterly intervals, making it a more reliable gauge of vaccine injury than the passively monitored Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System.

More

Earliest COVID-19 vaccine recipients wrote in tens of thousands of injuries left off CDC surveys | Just The News

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Well if they say so.

World first UK prototype could pave the way for constant energy all the time - from space

April 4, 2024

A company hoping to launch the first solar farm into space has passed a critical milestone with a prototype on Earth.

Oxfordshire-based Space Solar plans to power more than a million homes by the 2030s with mile-wide complex of mirrors and solar panels orbiting 22,000 miles above the planet.

But its super-efficient design for harvesting constant sunlight - called CASSIOPeiA - requires the system to rotate towards the sun, whatever its position, while still sending power to a fixed receiver on the ground.

That's now been shown to work for the first time at Queen's University Belfast, with a wireless beam successfully "steered" across a lab to turn on a light.

Martin Soltau, the company's founder, told Sky News in an exclusive interview: "This is a world first. You can get constant energy all the time.

"This is really going to have a substantial impact on our future energy systems."

Solar panels capture 13 times more energy in space than they do on the ground because the light intensity is higher and there's no atmosphere, clouds or night.

Even though some energy would be lost by the time it is beamed back to Earth and connected to the electricity grid, it would still far outstrip solar generation on the ground.

But it's the production of power around the clock that makes space-based solar energy so attractive for providing a "baseload" to back up ground-based renewables.

Currently, nuclear energy and gas turbines provide the baseload for the grid but produce radioactive waste or carbon dioxide respectively.

"This is this is why the government is so excited by the prospect of space-based solar power," said Mr Soltau.

"Not only is it very, capable in that it's helping to make the whole energy system work more effectively.

"But the cost (of electricity) is about quarter of that from nuclear."

World first UK prototype could pave the way for constant energy all the time - from space (msn.com)

Finally, our latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Liberty is meaningless if it is only the liberty to agree with those in power. 

Ludwig von Mises.


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