Baltic Dry Index. 1721 -22 Brent Crude 88.67
Spot
Gold 2335 US 2 Year Yield 4.96 unch.
Legal plunder can be committed in an infinite number of ways; hence, there are an infinite number of plans for organizing it: tariffs, protection, bonuses, subsidies, incentives, the progressive income tax, free education, the right to employment, the right to profit, the right to wages, the right to relief, the right to the tools of production, interest free credit, etc., etc. And it the aggregate of all these plans, in respect to what they have in common, legal plunder, that goes under the name of socialism.
Frederic Bastiat.
A new week and a May Day holiday shortened week for many.
In the stock casinos, much attention will be on the USA and what the US central bank decides on interest rates and the guidance they issue on Wednesday.
On Friday, the focus will be on the latest US
employment figures from the Bureau of Lying Labor Statistics.
Ignored all week, as usual, the USA leading
the race of most of the G-20 into a catastrophic debt bomb calamity. Debt doesn’t
matter until one day, out of nowhere, it does.
Japanese yen
touches 160 to the dollar; Asia stocks rise as Fed meeting looms
UPDATED MON, APR 29 2024 10:22 PM EDT
The Japanese
yen weakened to 160 against the U.S. dollar on Monday, as
stocks in Asia-Pacific markets climbed.
The yen weakened
further on Friday after the Bank
of Japan left interest
rates unchanged. Japan’s stock markets are closed for a public
holiday.
Traders look toward the Federal
Reserve’s meeting this week, following another hotter-than-expected U.S.
inflation reading Friday.
March’s core
personal consumption expenditures, excluding food and energy, rose
2.8% from a year ago, and came in ahead of the 2.7% expected by Dow Jones.
Personal spending rose 0.8%, ahead of a 0.7% estimate.
In Asia, China’s official
purchasing managers index for April is expected Tuesday ahead of the Labor Day
holiday on Wednesday, along with Japan’s industrial production and retail sales
data from March.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was
up 0.43%, rebounding from Friday’s losses.
South Korea’s Kospi rose
0.84%, and the small-cap Kosdaq gained 0.72%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose
0.82%, while China’s CSI 300 added 0.1%.
U.S. stocks jumped Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite recording
their best week since November as Big Tech names rallied on
strong earnings.
The S&P 500 advanced 1.02%,
while the tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped 2.03%, marking its best session
since February. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average rose
0.4%.
Asia markets: FOMC meeting, China PMI, China industrial profit (cnbc.com)
Stock futures are
little changed following S&P 500′s best week since November: Live updates
UPDATED MON, APR 29 2024 7:00 PM EDT
S&P 500 futures inched
higher Sunday night as the broad index came off its best week in several
months. Traders are looking ahead to a week with more corporate earnings, key
labor data and a Federal Reserve meeting.
Futures tied to the index added
0.1%. Dow Jones
Industrial Average futures rose
58 points, or 0.2%. Nasdaq 100 futures advanced
0.1%.
Those moves follow a positive
— albeit rocky — week on Wall Street. The S&P 500 jumped
2.7%, notching its best week since November and breaking a three-week negative
streak. With a rally of 4.2%, the Nasdaq Composite also
saw its best weekly performance going back to November and its first winning
week in the last five. The Dow finished
the week 0.7% higher.
“The YTD upgrade in the market’s
pricing of economic growth largely explains the resilience in equities this
year alongside the climb higher in interest rates,” David Kostin, Goldman
Sachs’ chief U.S. equity strategist, wrote to clients. “However, during the
past few weeks, the driver of rates has shifted from better growth to
hawkish monetary policy concerns, which has been more difficult for stocks to
digest.”
Earnings season continues this
week, with releases from major names including McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, Apple and Amazon.
It’s shaping up to be a strong quarter: Of the more than 45% S&P 500-listed
firms that have posted results so far, about four out of every five have
surpassed expectations, according to FactSet.
Monetary policy will take center
stage later in the week, with the Fed set to release its latest interest rate
announcement on Wednesday. While the central bank is widely
anticipated to keep the borrowing cost unchanged, investors
will still closely monitor the post-announcement press conference with Chair
Jerome Powell.
That announcement comes ahead of
April’s nonfarm payrolls report expected Friday. Traders analyze the data for
insights into the strength of the labor market given its role in the monetary
policy decision making process and the country’s broader economic health.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
WEF president:
‘We haven’t seen this kind of debt since the Napoleonic Wars’
Borge Brende,
president of the World Economic Forum, gave a stark outlook for the global
economy saying the world faces a decade of low growth if the right economic
measures are not applied.
Speaking Sunday at
WEF’s “Special Meeting on Global Collaboration, Growth and Energy for
Development” in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, he warned that global debt ratios are
close to levels not seen since the 1820s and there was a “stagflation” risk for
advanced economies.
“The global growth
[estimate] this year is around 3.2 [%]. It’s not bad, but it’s not what we were
used to — the trend growth used to be 4% for decades,” he told CNBC’s Dan
Murphy, adding that there was a risk of a slowdown like that seen in the 1970s
in some major economies.
“We cannot get into a
trade war, we still have to trade with each other,” he explained when asked
about avoiding a period of low growth.
“Trade will change
and global value chains — there will be some more near-shoring and
friend-shoring — but we shouldn’t lose the baby with the bathwater ... Then we
have to address the global debt situation. We haven’t seen this kind of debt
since the Napoleonic Wars, we are getting close to 100% of the global GDP in
debt,” he said.
He said governments
needed to consider how to reduce that debt and take the right fiscal measures
without getting into a situation where it kicks off a recession. He also
motioned persistent inflationary pressures and that generative artificial
intelligence could be an opportunity for the developing world.
His warning chimes with a recent report from the
International Monetary Fund which noted that global public debt had edged up to
93% of GDP last year, and was still 9 percentage points higher than
pre-pandemic levels. The IMF projected that global public debt could near 100 %
of GDP by the end of the decade.
The Fund also singled out the high debt levels in China and the United
States, saying loose fiscal policy in the latter puts pressure on rates and the dollar which
then pushes up funding costs around the world —exacerbating pre-existing
fragilities.
More
WEF president: 'We haven't seen this kind of debt since the Napoleonic Wars' (cnbc.com)
In other news:
Europe farmers facing chaos as worst wine harvest
recorded in 62 years
April
27, 2024
European
farmers have launched a number of audacious protests in recent months, with
tractors blocking motorways and dumping manure on roads. However, the farmers
have been dealt a new devastating blow as a key EU export - wine - suffered its
worst harvest in 62 years.
The
International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), representing 75 percent of
the world's vineyard area, revealed that wine harvests had dried up across most
of Europe.
In the EU
bloc, wine production declined by 10 percent last year - the second-lowest
recorded volume of wine this century. The figures are even worse than initial
estimates made in November.
Agricultural
experts blamed climate change and "extreme environmental conditions"
including droughts and fires that have been driving the downward trend in
production.
They also
blamed heavy rain for causing flooding and fungal diseases across major
wine-producing regions.
France is the
only European country to buck the falling harvest trend, with a four percent
rise in the past year, making it by far the world's biggest wine producer.
Italy was one
of the wine-producing countries that suffered the most with a 23 percent drop
in its harvest.
Spain lost
over a fifth of its production, while harvests outside of Europe, in Chile and
South Africa, were also down by more than 10 percent.
Surprisingly,
India - not known for its vineyards - entered the global top 10 grape producers
for the first time.
The crisis in
harvesting grapes comes as experts warn that regular droughts could become the
'new normal' across the Mediterranean by mid-century due to climate change.
To compound
the problem, analysis found that wine consumption had also dropped to its
lowest level since 1996.
The
Portuguese, French and Italians remain the world's biggest wine drinkers per
capita but the rising cost of living has put a dent in worldwide purchasing
trends.
There was also
a sharp drop in wine drinking in China due to the economic slowdown in the
country.
Europe farmers facing chaos as worst wine harvest
recorded in 62 years (msn.com)
Many large U.S.
cities are in deep financial trouble. Here’s why
Municipal governments across the United States are
looking to rein in spending as pandemic-era stimulus dries up and inflation
lingers for longer than expected.
“Clearly there are significant capital needs across the U.S.,” said Michael
Rinaldi, senior director at Fitch Ratings’ public finance group. The group
issued a AA investment grade general obligation
bond rating for New York City in March 2024.
The financial challenges within cities appear to be mounting despite high
municipal credit ratings and robust
demand for urban commodities like housing. For example, New York
City had a total public debt of $177.6 billion at the end of fiscal year 2022,
according to researchers at Truth in Accounting, a nonprofit that partners with
the University of Denver to promote transparency in public accounting. That
translates into a per capita taxpayer burden of $61,200, according to the
group’s analysis.
That estimate comes in higher than the one quoted by New York City Comptroller
Brad Lander, who says the Big Apple has a public debt burden of roughly $96
billion in 2024 — about $30 billion shy of the city’s debt limit.
The discrepancy, according to Truth
in Accounting, comes from pension debt obligations that are underreported and
will eventually be pushed on to future taxpayers. “If I don’t pay that invoice,
I don’t have to include it in my balanced budget,” said Sheila Weinberg, the
group’s founder and CEO.
Truth in Accounting estimates that 53 of the largest cities in the U.S.
were not generating enough revenue to pay their bills at the end of fiscal year
2022. The list also highlights fiscal challenges facing cities
like Chicago, Houston and Portland, Oregon.
“I think we can all agree that we’re broke,” said Houston Mayor John Whitmire
in a March 2024 City Council budget hearing.
Truth in Accounting believes that underfunded
pension obligations and retiree health benefits are straining
municipal governments nationwide. Detroit’s
2013 municipal bankruptcy was a potent example of the potential
effect when the city temporarily suspended pension payments to pump more cash
into reserves.
“I believe this is a big problem throughout the country,” said Weinberg. “The
voters think, oh, they must be living within their means. And they’re not.”
Weinberg told CNBC that cities and
state governments are, in effect, spending tomorrow’s money today in
unsustainable fashion.
More
Many
large U.S. cities are in deep financial trouble. Here's why (cnbc.com)
Finally, yet more desperate new from EV land. Even if it works well,
which I doubt, at what cost in copper or aluminium, installation, radiation
risk, electricity and cost in subsidies to UK taxpayers?
Electric car owners handed major lifeline by
revolutionary technology that charges moving vehicles
April 27, 2024
Drivers will
soon be able to charge their electric vehicle while on the road as new
technology gets trialled in the Midlands.
Coventry
University has unveiled new technology which enables drivers to recharge their
vehicles while moving along power-enabled roads.
The technology
was proposed by the Key Cities Innovation Network as part of plans to help the
local communities achieve vital net zero targets.
The charging innovation uses dynamic wireless transfer technology to establish an automatic connection between the vehicles and metal coils fitted below the road surface to recharge the batteries as they pass over.
Funded by
National Grid Electricity Distribution the mobile charging scheme is currently
being focused on a section of Kenilworth Road at its junction with the A45.
The stretch of
road being trialled is hoped to attract Government support and funding for the
next stages of more areas.
----The
Government has already installed almost 60,000 public chargepoints across the
UK, according to the Zapmap database.
Despite this,
motorists have complained about the price of electric vehicles as well as the
need for more chargers as numbers are still lagging behind Government targets.
More
Tesla’s Autopilot is under investigation again
following ‘recall’ software update
April
26, 2024
Tesla can add yet another
investigation into its Autopilot feature to what’s already piling up to be
a pretty bad year for the company.
On Friday, the National
Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) revealed it was opening a new probe to
assess whether the recall fix Tesla implemented for over 2 million cars back in
December actually did enough to address safety concerns surrounding its
Autopilot driver assistance system.
That
recall was prompted by a previous investigation NHTSA raised in 2021 that reviewed hundreds of collisions and 13
fatalities allegedly involving Tesla’s Autopilot feature. NHTSA has now closed that same probe following
Tesla’s recall notice, finding that the
name “Autopilot” may “lead drivers to believe that the automation has greater
capabilities than it does.”
The agency also found that
Tesla’s Autopilot can discourage drivers from taking manual control of the
vehicle compared to other automated driving systems because doing so
deactivates Autosteer lane-centering assistance.
NHTSA’s new investigation
focuses on the software update Tesla
rolled out to fix these issues in December, which prompts drivers with
increased warnings and alerts to pay greater attention when using Autopilot and
Autosteer. Some of these remedies require Tesla owners to opt in, according to
the agency, and allow them to reverse the safety updates if they choose.
A number of new collisions that
have occurred since the software update was applied have also driven the new
investigation, alongside tests NHTSA has conducted on amended vehicles.
Updates to Autopilot that
Tesla has rolled out following the initial fix are also being evaluated to
determine why they weren't included in the initial recall update. Every
Autopilot-equipped Tesla vehicle produced between 2012 and 2024 — including the
Cybertruck, which is already being recalled over defective accelerator pedals — is subject to the new probe.
More
Tesla’s
Autopilot is under investigation again following ‘recall’ software update
(msn.com)
Homicide Rap For Tesla Driver On Autopilot
Man was using cellphone when Model S ran over
motorcyclist
APRIL 26--A Tesla owner has been charged with
vehicular homicide after his car--traveling in autopilot mode--slammed into a
motorcyclist when he got distracted looking at his cellphone, according to
Washington court records.
More
Homicide Rap For Tesla Driver On Autopilot | The
Smoking Gun
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Rating agencies doubt France's target to cut massive
debt
April
26, 2024
Two major
ratings agencies left their assessment of France's huge debt pile unchanged
Friday, but cast doubt on the government's debt reduction target.
Moody's
maintained France's sovereign rating at "Aa2" with a stable outlook.
Fitch, which downgraded its rating for France last year, left it unchanged at
"AA-" with a stable outlook.
France's
public deficit widened to 5.5 percent of GDP in 2023, overshooting the
government’s 4.9 percent target. And with the debt stock equal to 110.6 percent
of GDP, France has the third highest debt ratio in the European Union after
Greece and Italy.
The government
has set a target of bringing debt below 3.0 percent of GDP by 2027. But both
agencies cast doubts.
Moody's said
it was "unlikely" that France will hit its deficit target of 2.9
percent in 2027. "Progress in sustainably reducing the budget deficit and
government debt is limited," it said in a commentary.
The agency
predicted that debt could reach "almost 115 percent of GDP by 2027".
"France's
interest burden will gradually rise and could double over the next decade if
the debt level does not materially decline," it added.
Fitch said
"it will be difficult to achieve this target as deficit narrowing measures
remain largely unspecified, France has only met the 3 percent deficit criterion
in four out of the last 20 years."
More
Rating agencies doubt France's target to cut massive
debt (msn.com)
US economic growth slows but
inflation grows
April 26,
2024
The US economy grew by less than forecast in the first three months of this year but inflation gathered pace, which could delay an interest rate cut.
Official figures revealed the economy expanded at an annualised rate of 1.6%, far below expectations and the growth seen in the final months of 2023.
Meanwhile, inflation, which measures the pace of price rises, has increased.
At the start of the year, experts had been forecasting a series of interest rate cuts in the US.
However, inflation is yet to fall back to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and on Thursday, figures from the US Department of Commerce showed that inflation increased by 3.4% in the first three months of 2024. This is compared to an increase of 1.8% in the final three months of 2023.
Raising interest rates makes borrowing - for things such as loans and mortgages - more expensive and theoretically is meant to encourage people to spend less. The idea is that this helps to bring inflation down by dampening demand.
However, US inflation has not fallen back as quickly as expected.
At the same time, economic growth - measured as gross domestic product (GDP) - has slowed from 3.4% growth in the final three months of last year to 1.6%. Economists had been expected it to decelerate but only to 2.4%.
Olu Sonola, head of US economic research at Fitch, the credit rating agency, said: "The hot inflation print is the real story in this report.
"If growth continues to slowly decelerate, but inflation strongly
takes off again in the wrong direction, the expectation of a Fed interest rate
cut in 2024 is starting to look increasingly more out of reach."
The key US interest rate is between 5.25% to 5.5% - the highest level in more than 20 years.
Stuart Cole, chief macro economist at Equiti Capital in London, said the US Federal Reserve, which sets interest rates, was "now finding itself caught between a rock and a hard place".
"The growth numbers suggest monetary policy has worked its magic and the Fed's foot on the monetary brake can be eased somewhat," he said.
"But the inflation figures suggest otherwise, and potentially even point to the need for a further tightening."
The 1.6% growth figure is the first estimate of GDP. A second reading, "based on more complete source data", will be released on 30 May.
Nevertheless, the economy is a key issue as the US heads towards an
election later this year.
US economic growth slows but inflation grows - BBC News
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
COVID-19 kicked off a workplace cultural shift,
making it hard to fill positions, says employers
April 28, 2024
The COVID-19
pandemic has shaken up how people work — including by requiring people to work
from home, exacerbating labour shortages, and leaving some people seeking
a better work-life balance — says a new report.
Memorial
University economist Tony Fang has researched the changes the pandemic has had
on businesses across Atlantic Canada and has released a paper detailing
his findings.
"During
this pandemic but also the aftermath of the global pandemic, we asked tough
questions; how we as a community — especially the business sector, and also the
government, the policy makers — responded to this unprecedented crisis,"
Fang told CBC News.
"How
businesses actually changed their operations, workplace practices. And also how
to prepare for [the] future in case such events would occur again."
Some
businesses have suffered — with some closing down — while others
prospered, Fang noted. Some businesses introduced artificial
intelligence and automation technology to streamline practices and
reduce costs, he said, which meant high upfront costs without knowing if the
investment would pay off.
His research
found labour shortages were deepest felt in skilled and general trade
positions. He also determined that in the face of labour shortages,
employers increased wages and adjusted hours and scheduling, as well as hired
people who weren't qualified for jobs.
Fang said his team surveyed 800 organizations across Atlantic
Canada about their experiences and conducted in-depth interviews with
managers, owners and CEOs. In 2022 his team also did site visits where
participants were asked to reflect on their experiences.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Well, if they say so it must be true,
of course, but at what cost to the poor Irish taxpayer? Ireland, like cloudy,
rainy GB, is an unlikely location to site profitable solar farms.
Three
solar farms set to power 10,000 Irish homes a year
Dublin-based
developer BNRG and asset manager Impax Asset Management have reached financial
close on the deal
Sat Apr 27 2024 - 05:00
Dublin-based
developer BNRG and asset manager Impax Asset Management have reached financial
close on the development of three solar farms that will have a combined peak
capacity of 43MW, which is enough renewable power to supply 10,000 homes a
year.
Two of the
farms will be located in Co Kildare, with the other one in Cork in what
industry sources estimate will involve an investment of in excess of €35
million. They are due to be operational next year. This is the first project to
commence construction for the groups following their joint venture deal in
2022.
Separately,
BNRG chief executive David Maguire, who founded the company in 2007, has been
named a finalist in the EY Entrepreneur of the Year Awards in the international
category.
“BNRG is on
track to deploying 1.2GW of solar in Ireland by 2027, representing an
investment of circa €575 million in Irish renewable energy infrastructure,”
said Mr Maguire. “Much of this capacity will be construction ready by end-2026
and ready to energise by 2028. That’s enough energy to supply about 279,000
homes in Ireland every year for 40 years.”
The three
solar projects are being funded by a combination of equity provided by BNRG and
Impax Asset Management, as well as non-recourse senior debt from French
investment bank Société Générale.
The
projects, which were successful in the second auction of the Government’s
renewable electricity support scheme, will benefit from State support up to
2040, as part of the Government’s bid to reach its climate action plan green
energy goals.
Three solar farms set to power 10,000 Irish homes a
year – The Irish Times
Finally,
our latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP
compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
When
misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is
honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages
what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or
insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the
terrible lessons of catastrophe.
Frederic Bastiat.
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