Baltic Dry Index. 1821 -24 Brent Crude 87.86
Spot Gold 2255 US 2 Year Yield 4.72 +0.13
There is no reason to think the
economy is in a recession or the edge of one (a recession). We are at a place
where the economy is strong. The labor market is at a good place.
Jerome Powell, March 29, 2024.
No need for any input from me today. The
headline and the articles say it all.
Hong Kong stocks
lead gains in Asia-Pacific markets as Xiaomi shares surge 15%
UPDATED MON, APR 1 2024 9:52 PM EDT
Hong Kong
stocks led gains in Asia-Pacific markets as
Xiaomi shares surged, while investors assessed economic data
from South Korea and Australia.
The Hang Seng index gained
2.5% as traders returned from a long weekend, with shares of Xiaomi jumping
nearly 15% after the consumer electronics company began taking orders on
Thursday for its newly
launched electric vehicle.
South Korea’s March inflation
rate held steady at 3.1%, in line with expectations from economists polled by
Reuters.
Australia’s factory activity
contracted at its fastest pace since May 2020, with its purchasing managers’
index sliding to 47.3 in March from 47.8 in February.
Factory activity data from India
is also due later in the day, with economists polled by Reuters expecting a
stronger PMI reading of 59.4.
China’s CSI 300 index traded 0.07% lower.
South Korea’s Kospi was
up 0.12% and the Kosdaq slid 1.9% after the inflation reading.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 climbed
0.09% to fresh all-time highs.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rebounded
slightly to gain 0.40%, while the broad based Topix was up 0.14%.
Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes
ended mixed as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed 13 basis points to
4.319%
The 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average lost
0.6%, and the S&P 500 dipped
0.2% The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added
0.11%.
Asia
markets live updates: South Korea CPI, India PMI, Australia PMI (cnbc.com)
Dow logs worst decline in over two weeks as strong Q1 rally hits
speedbump
By Joy Wiltermuth April 1, 2024
U.S. stocks closed mostly lower on Monday to
kick off the second quarter, pausing a rally that has recently brought all
three indexes to fresh record highs.
- The Dow Jones Industrial
Average shed 240.52 points, or 0.6%, closing at 39,566.85 — its biggest
daily drop since March 22.
- The S&P 500 index fell
10.58 points, or 0.2%, finishing at 5,243.77.
- The Nasdaq Composite index
gained 17.37 points, or 0.1%, ending at a record 16,396.83.
“Investors remain at the whim of the Federal
Reserve,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist for the U.S. SPDR
business at State Street Global Advisors, in a phone interview.
With the stock and bond markets closed on Good
Friday, Arone said investors on Monday were still absorbing Fed Chair Jerome
Powell’s main message on Friday that the central bank isn’t in a hurry to lower
interest rates.
"The Fed continues to push back on the
notion that they have to rush to cut interest rates," Arone said, pointing
to Monday's big pickup in Treasury yields as
a factor pressuring stocks lower.
The Dow closed only
0.6% off its record finish last week, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were
each 0.2% off their most recent record-high closes, according to Dow Jones
Market Data.
Stock
Market Today: Dow ends 240 points lower as bond yields climb (marketwatch.com)
Stock futures
slip Monday evening after S&P 500 falls to start second quarter: Live
updates
UPDATED MON, APR 1 2024 8:14 PM EDT
Stock
futures slipped Monday night after the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial
Average kicked off April with declines.
S&P
500 futures ticked
lower by 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped
roughly 0.2%. Futures tied to
the 30-stock Dow fell
120 points, or 0.3%, as shares of UnitedHealth declined.
In extended trading, health
insurers slid after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services finalized
the 2025 rate announcement for Medicare
Advantage and prescription drug coverage. In 2025, payments from the government
toward these plans are expected to rise 3.7% year over year, unchanged from an
earlier proposed rate. Humana lost
9%, while UnitedHealth dropped 4% and CVS Health tumbled
nearly 6%.
To conclude Monday’s session, the Dow fell
nearly 241 points, or 0.6%, while the S&P 500 slid
0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite bucked
the trend by ending 0.1% higher.
The moves came after data from
the manufacturing sector topped economists’ expectations, casting doubts on the
urgency of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Fed funds futures data now
suggests a 58% probability that the central bank will cut rates at its June
meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
The market now appears to be in a
“relatively comfortable place,” David Miller, co-founder and chief investment
officer of Catalyst Capital Advisors told CNBC. He expects equities to trade
relatively range-bound in the near future.
“Valuations right now are fairly
reasonable. I don’t think investors have unrealistic expectations,” he said. “I
think we will need some real surprises — either from those employment reports
or our next CPI number — to get away from where we are today.”
On the economic front, traders
will be looking for the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from February,
out Tuesday at 10 a.m. ET. Durable orders for February are also on deck Tuesday
morning. The main event this week will be March’s big payrolls report due
Friday.
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In commodities news, is gold frontrunning the
central bank interest rate cuts, or something more? A weaponised dollar reserve standard and Uncle
Scam running up another trillion dollars in debt every 100 days.
Gold prices hit
another record high after fresh U.S. data spurs Fed cut expectations
Gold prices scaled to another record high Monday,
propelled by U.S. interest rate cut expectations and the metal’s appeal as a
safe haven asset.
Spot
gold added
0.3% to trade at $2,240.04 per ounce. U.S. gold
futures rose
0.8% to settle at $2,257.10 per ounce. The metal hit a high of $2,286.4.
“I think it’s a really exciting moment in gold,” said Joseph Cavatoni,
market strategist at the World Gold Council, told CNBC on Monday. “What’s
really driving it is, I think, many market speculators really getting that
confidence and comfort [in] the Fed cuts,” he said.
Market watchers are expecting the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest
rates in June.
The key
Fed inflation gauge for February climbed 2.8% year on year,
according to data released Friday — likely to keep the U.S. central bank
on hold before it can start considering rate cuts.
The Fed stood
pat on interest rates at the conclusion of its recent March
meeting, but stuck with its forecast for three rate reductions this year.
Gold prices tend to share an inverse relationship
with interest rates. As interest rates fall, gold becomes more appealing
compared with fixed income assets such as bonds, which would yield weaker
returns in a low interest rate environment.
Bullion prices were also driven higher by overseas demand, according to
Caesar Bryan, portfolio manager at investment management company Gabelli Funds.
“In China, private investors have
been attracted to gold because the real estate sector has done poorly,” Bryan
said, adding that China’s general economy has remained weak and its stock
market and currency have not been performing well.
The gold rally so far has been
fueled by robust purchases from the world’s central banks in a bid to diversify
reserve portfolios due to geopolitical risks, domestic inflation and the U.S.
dollar’s weakness, said Cavatoni from the World Gold Council.
“Really strong case for them to
continue to buy … [but] let’s see if they continue to be as large and for as
long,” he added.
China is the leading driver for
both consumer demand and central bank gold purchases, according
to data from the WGC.
Gold prices hit new record high on Fed cut expectations (cnbc.com)
Finally, some (slightly) better shipping
news.
Trapped vessels start
moving out of Baltimore after bridge collapse
By Daniel Trotta
April
2, 2024 2:35 AM GMT+1
April 1 (Reuters) - The Port
of Baltimore opened a temporary channel on Monday, freeing some tugs and barges
that had been trapped by last week's bridge collapse, but officials said wider
restoration of commercial shipping remained frustrated by unyielding
conditions.
Baltimore's shipping channel has been blocked since a fully
loaded container ship lost power and collided with a support column of the
Francis Scott Key Bridge last Tuesday, killing six road workers and
causing the highway bridge to tumble into the Patapsco River.
A recovery team led by the U.S. Coast Guard and the
state of Maryland aims to quickly reopen the port, the largest in the U.S. for
"roll-on, roll-off" vehicle imports and exports of farm and
construction equipment.
But first it must free the cargo vessel Dali, stuck
under steel bridge debris with 4,000 containers and a 21-member crew stranded
aboard since the accident.
To illustrate the task ahead, officials said
recovery workers needed 10 hours to cut free and remove a 200-ton piece of
debris - what they called "a relatively small lift."
"We're talking about something that is almost
the size of the Statue of Liberty," Governor Wes Moore told a news
conference. "The scale of this project, to be clear, is enormous. And even
the smallest (tasks) are huge."
Beneath the surface, the job is even more
complicated than originally imagined, said U.S. Coast Guard Rear Admiral
Shannon Gilreath, as the twisted steel is obscured by murky waters darkened by
the volume of debris.
"These girders are essentially tangled
together, intertwined, making it very difficult to figure out where you need to
potentially cut so that we can make that into more manageable sizes to lift
them from the water," Gilreath told the same news conference.
Officials declined to estimate how long it would
take to clear the harbor.
Limited ship traffic resumed for the first time on
Monday after recovery teams opened a temporary channel with a controlling depth
of 11 feet (3.35 meters) on the northbound side of the wreckage.
The first vessel to transit the channel was a
tugboat pushing a barge supplying jet fuel to the U.S. Department of Defense,
the Coast Guard said on Facebook, posting video of the barge sliding beneath a
truncated section of bridge that is still standing.
A second temporary channel on the southbound side
with a depth of 15 to 16 feet (4.6 to 4.9 meters) would open "in the
coming days," Moore said.
Once debris is cleared, a third channel with a
depth of 20 to 25 feet (6.1 to 7.6 meters) would allow almost all tug and barge
traffic in and out of the port, Gilreath said.
More
Trapped vessels start moving out of Baltimore after bridge collapse | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Is
the Fed now fuelling Bitcoin?
Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC traders eye
$80k breakout as US Fed says ‘No Recession’
By: Ibrahim Ajibade Updated: Mar 31, 2024, 19:31 UTC
Key Points:
·
Bitcoin (BTC) price
continues to consolidate around the $70,000 territory on March 31, as bulls
look to stage another breakout in the week ahead.
·
According to a
statement on Friday March 29, US Fed Chair, Jerome Powell sees no chance of a
recession' in 2024, as initially feared.
·
Bullish BTC
derivatives traders have raised leverage rates by 100% since Jerome Powell's
statement on Friday
Bitcoin (BTC) price continues
to consolidate around the $70,000 territory on March 31, as bulls look to stage
another breakout in the week ahead. On–chain data shows that recent statements
from US Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell has sparked an instant positive reaction among
BTC traders.
What are the chance of BTC price staging a
breakout above $75,000 in the week ahead ?
Bitcoin price peaked
at $70,763 within the daily timeframe on March 31, on course to end the month
with 17% gains. However, a recent statement from US Fed chairman Jerome Powell
has raised optimism among BTC traders, a move that could spark a positive start
to April 2024.
On Friday March 29,
Fed Chair Jerome Powelltold reporter there is “no reason” to think that the
risks of a U.S. recession are elevated.
Almost instantly, Bitcoin speculative traders
have reacted positively to Jerome Powell’s bullish comment, according recent
market data.
Within 48 hours on
Powell’s statement, there has been increased bullish activity among BTC LONG
traders. As indicated in the chart above, Bitcoin funding rate surged 100% from
0.03% on March 29, to 0.06% at the time of writing on March 31.
An increase in
positive funding rate essentially means that LONG traders are now paying higher
fees to SHORT position holders to keep their contracts open.
This occurs when LONG
traders are confident of an imminent price surge, which could see them book
outsized profits, as evidenced by their preference to take on more leverage.
More
Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC traders eye $80k breakout as US Fed says ‘No Recession’ | FXEmpire
The markets are moved by animal spirits, and not by reason.
John Maynard Keynes.
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Covid-19 Brings Down Healthy Life Expectancy In The U.K.
Mar
31, 2024,04:46pm EDT
People born in
England and Wales in recent years can expect to spend fewer years of their life
in good health than those born over a decade ago, official figures show.
Covid-19, healthcare
delays and an increase in long-term sickness are likely factors in this
decline. But the Office of National Statistics figures also reflect deeper social issues like widespread
inequality, say experts.
Men born in England
from 2020 to 2022 can expect to spend between 62.4 years of their life in good
health — 9.3 months less than those born from 2011 to 2013.
Women in England can
expect to live 62.7 years in good health, which is a drop of 1.5 years in just
over a decade.
Wales had the lowest
average HLE at 61.1 years for men and just 60.3 years for women.
Men in Northern
Ireland saw their HLE increase by more than a year compared to 2011-2013, while
women saw theirs fall by 15.3 months.
Women saw the biggest
decrease in healthy life expectency across the U.K., with Wales, Northern
Ireland and every region of England seeing a decline.
Scotland was not
included in the analysis, as figures from its most recent census are not yet
available.
Covid-19, Delays And Chronic Illness
The overall drop in
HLE is likely driven in part by Covid-19, “as there had been minimal change in
healthy life expectancy up to 2017–19,” according to Veena Raleigh, senior
fellow at health think thank The King’s Fund.
Healthcare
delays and a rise in long-term sickness after the pandemic have probably also
played a role she added in a statement.
More
Covid-19 Brings Down Healthy Life Expectancy In The U.K. (forbes.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Scientists
make game-changing advancement in bid to make solar power cheaper: 'Could be
implemented across various … formulations'
March 31, 2024
Researchers at the University
of Michigan may have just made a discovery that could result in solar panels becoming
two to four times cheaper in the future, SciTechDaily reported.
The discovery centered on a
mineral called perovskite, which has been referred to as a "miracle material" when
it comes to solar panels because of its incredible light absorption qualities
and relative inexpensiveness. However, perovskite also degrades too quickly for
it to be viable in commercially produced solar panels.
The
research, led by University of Michigan assistant professor of chemical
engineering Xiwen Gong, attempted to find ways to make perovskite more durable
and longer-lasting. She and her team found that "defect pacifying"
could help increase the perovskites' stability and overall lifespan — by using
various additive molecules to affect the hardiness of the cells.
"We wanted to figure out
what features on the molecules specifically improve the perovskite's
stability," said Hongki Kim,
one of the study's authors.
The researchers concluded
that larger molecules by mass were better at preventing defects from forming,
as they had an easier time sticking to the perovskite. They also found that the
molecules worked better when they were wider, which resulted in larger
perovskite grains.
"Both
the size and configuration are important when designing additives, and we
believe this design philosophy could be implemented across various perovskite
formulations to further improve the lifetime of perovskite solar cells, light
emitting devices, and photodetectors," said Carlos
Alejandro Figueroa Morales, another of the researchers behind the study.
Rooftop
solar panels have become increasingly popular in recent years, as more people
want to generate clean, renewable energy to power their homes — saving money on energy bills in the long run —
while reducing their reliance on dirty, polluting energy sources like gas and
oil.
Finally,
our latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
The nation is marching along a permanently high plateau of prosperity.
Irving Fisher, 1929.
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